【原木市场动态】原木日内走弱，节前 LG2507 报收于 783 元/m?，期货升水现货。辐射松原木山东地 区报价 760 元/m?，无变动；江苏地区现货价格 780 元/m?，无变动，进口 CFR 报价 110 美元，周环比 降 4 美元。供应端，海关数据显示 3 月原木、针叶原木进口量同比减少，环比增加，新西兰原木离港量 3 月增加，预期 4 - 5 月供应维持高位边际减少。需求端，原木港口日均出库量周度减少。截止 2025 年 5 月 12 日当周，中国针叶原木港口样本库存量 343 万 m?，环比减少 8 万 m?，库存持平。目前港口库 存处于年内中性水平，外盘价格回落、进口换算超过国内价格构成成本支撑，原木下游整体需求边际恢 复，供需双增格局下基本面矛盾不大，后续注意原木进口情况，现货有支撑，期货区间震荡。LG2507 合约建议下方关注 780 附近支撑，上方 820 附近压力，区间操作。【瓶片市场态势】市场等待美伊谈判 最新进展，国际原油上涨，影响聚酯走势。供应方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 36.50 万吨，较上周减少 0.16 万吨，减少 0.44%；国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 82.80%，较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the short - term price has limited upside and downside space. The supply is expected to decline due to increased maintenance, but the cost support is weakening. The demand is stable to weak, and there is a risk of oversupply after the rush - installation period. For the glass market, the apparent demand has decreased significantly, the price is expected to decline, and the fundamentals lack obvious positive drivers, so the market will maintain a weak operation [4][51] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Market 3.1.1 Price - **Futures price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts decreased by 27, 29, and 19 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 [6] - **Spot price**: The prices of heavy alkali in some regions remained stable, while the price of heavy alkali in Qinghai increased by 20. The price of light alkali in Central China remained unchanged [6] 3.1.2 Supply - **Capacity utilization**: The overall capacity utilization decreased from 87.74% to 80.27%. The capacity utilization of the combined - soda process decreased from 85.12% to 74.23%, and that of the ammonia - soda process decreased from 83.52% to 82.27% [7] - **Output**: The weekly output decreased from 74.07 million tons to 67.77 million tons, a decrease of 8.51%. The output of heavy alkali decreased from 40.79 million tons to 36.99 million tons, a decrease of 9.32%, and the output of light alkali decreased from 33.28 million tons to 30.78 million tons, a decrease of 7.51% [7] 3.1.3 Demand - **For glass**: The daily output of float glass increased from 15.58 million tons to 15.67 million tons, and the daily output of photovoltaic glass remained at 9.878 million tons [7] - **Apparent demand for light alkali**: It decreased from 31.88 million tons to 30.82 million tons, a decrease of 3.32% [7] 3.1.4 Inventory - **Total inventory**: It increased from 170.13 million tons to 171.2 million tons, an increase of 0.63%. The inventory of heavy alkali increased from 87.22 million tons to 88.33 million tons, an increase of 1.27%, and the inventory of light alkali decreased slightly from 82.91 million tons to 82.87 million tons, a decrease of 0.05% [7] - **Social inventory**: It decreased from 37.59 million tons to 36.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.43% [7] 3.1.5 Profit - **Combined - soda process profit**: It increased from 275 yuan/ton to 287.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.55% - **Ammonia - soda process profit**: It increased from 50.4 yuan/ton to 65.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.76% [7] 3.2 Glass Market 3.2.1 Price - **Futures price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts decreased by 28, 11, and 1 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 17, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 12 [53] - **Spot price**: The prices of glass in most regions decreased. The price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe decreased by 44, and the prices in North China, Central China, and East China decreased by 20, 10, and 20 respectively [53] 3.2.2 Supply - **Capacity utilization**: It remained at 75%, and the daily output increased from 15.58 million tons to 15.67 million tons. The weekly output remained stable at around 109.17 million tons [54] 3.2.3 Demand - **Apparent demand**: It increased from 96.34 million tons to 106.56 million tons, an increase of 11%. However, the orders of downstream processing plants were differentiated [54] 3.2.4 Inventory - **Total inventory**: It increased from 6756 million heavy - cases to 6808.2 million heavy - cases, an increase of 1%. The inventory of Shahe traders decreased from 376 million heavy - cases to 352 million heavy - cases, a decrease of 6% [54] 3.2.5 Profit - **Profit of different production processes**: The profit of natural - gas production decreased from - 147.85 yuan/ton to - 149.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1%. The profit of coal - gas production decreased from 147.23 yuan/ton to 104.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29%. The profit of petroleum - coke production decreased from - 44.6 yuan/ton to - 70.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57% [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel industry presents a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. It is about to face the seasonal off - season and the possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, the daily average iron ore production has peaked and declined, while the port clearance volume has slightly increased. It is expected that the iron ore production will remain at a high level in the short term. The iron ore is slightly de - stocked under high iron ore production, and the steel mill inventory remains low. The terminal demand of finished products determines the sustainability of high - level iron ore production. It is expected that the iron ore will oscillate in the short term [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - For silicon iron, the daily production has declined, the supply pressure has been gradually relieved, and the factory inventory has gradually decreased, but the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. For silicon manganese, the production is accelerating to decline, the supply and demand contradiction is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate, stabilize, and rebound [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke and coking coal futures showed a weak oscillating trend last week. The supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short term. It is recommended to short the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal at high prices and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of long hot - rolled coils and short coke/coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most steel products decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price decreased by 36 yuan/ton. The cost of some steel products decreased, and the profit of most steel products increased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron ore production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons (- 0.7%), the rebar production increased by 3.0 tons (1.3%), and the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 8.4 tons (- 2.6%) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons (- 3.1%), the rebar inventory decreased by 33.8 tons (- 5.2%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 17.6 tons (- 4.8%) [1]. - **Demand**: The daily average construction material trading volume decreased by 0.3 tons (- 3.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons (8.1%), the apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons (21.7%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 20.0 tons (6.5%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 8.8 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton (- 1.0%). The basis of some varieties increased significantly [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 95.1 tons (- 3.9%), and the global shipment volume decreased by 21.5 tons (- 0.7%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons (- 0.4%), and the 45 - port daily average port clearance volume increased by 8.7 tons (2.8%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 174.8 tons (- 1.2%), and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 2.2 tons (0.0%) [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased slightly. The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 26.0 yuan/ton (0.5%), and the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 12.0 yuan/ton (0.2%) [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of some regions remained stable, and the production profit of some regions increased or remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: The production of silicon iron decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%), and the production of silicon manganese decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%). The start - up rates of both decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese remained relatively stable [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons (- 11.8%), and the inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises increased by 2.5 tons (13.9%) [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal decreased. For example, the price of first - class wet - quenched coke in Shanxi decreased by 50 yuan/ton (- 3.84%), and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton (- 1.9%) [6]. - **Supply**: The coke production increased slightly, and the coking coal production remained at a relatively high level. The domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and the Mongolian customs clearance volume increased from a low level [6]. - **Demand**: The iron ore production showed signs of peaking and declining, and the downstream users' replenishment was mainly on - demand [6]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory in coking plants continued to decline, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory was low. The coking coal inventory in mines continued to accumulate, and the downstream inventory was at a low level [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to continue their downward trend, with a long - term bearish view. The first target for the decline is around 3,500 ringgit. In the domestic market, palm oil has fallen below 8,000 yuan and may seek support in the 7,900 - 8,000 yuan range. - For soybeans, concerns about the US renewable diesel quota policy (RVO) have led to a market decline. If there is no new news on the biodiesel policy, the July contract will fluctuate around the daily mid - track at 48.9 cents, and may fall to 46 cents later. In the domestic market, soybean oil supply is increasing, and the spot basis price is expected to decline [1]. Sugar Industry - Although the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of April, the 25/26 sugar - cane season still has a promising harvest. Short - term raw sugar is expected to oscillate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar supply is abundant, and sales are strong. The market focus is on future import rhythms, and sugar prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Cotton Industry - Macro - level conditions have marginally improved, but US tariffs on Chinese cotton products remain high, which is unfavorable to domestic export - oriented enterprises. The industry's improvement is not obvious, and short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate after rising, and further increase requires downstream improvement [5]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is sufficient, which has a negative impact on egg prices. Demand may first decrease and then increase, and egg prices are expected to first fall and then rise slightly next week [8]. Meal Industry - Spring sowing of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean supply pressure is being realized. In the domestic market, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill operations are rising, but demand is not boosted, and the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2,900 [10]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The fat - to - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. There may be an increase in the second - fattening pig supply. The demand is weak, and pig prices are expected to oscillate. The 09 contract is below 14,000, and the market is expected to neither decline sharply nor rise strongly [13][14]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is stable, with the base grain sold out and the right of grain ownership transferred to traders. The price is stable in the northeast and may be slightly adjusted down in the north - central region. In the long term, the supply will tighten, and the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On May 16, the price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,450 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean oil were 12,370, up 13.80%; palm oil warehouse receipts were 1,500, up 13.80%; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,725 [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the sugar 2601 contract was 5,723 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; the sugar 2509 contract was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The spot price in Nanning was 6,145 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [3]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production reached 11.1072 million tons, an increase of 11.63%; sales were 7.2446 million tons, an increase of 26.07%. The national sugar sales rate was 65.22%, an increase of 12.97% [3]. Cotton Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the cotton 2509 contract was 13,390 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the cotton 2601 contract was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,479 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [5]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 8.0% to 415.26 tons, and the textile industry's inventory decreased by 4.4% year - on - year [5]. Egg Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the egg 09 contract was 3,788 yuan/500KG, down 0.18%; the egg 06 contract was 2,894 yuan/500KG, up 0.31%. The egg - producing area price was 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.07% [8]. - **Related Data**: The price of laying - hen chicks was 4.15 yuan per bird, down 1.19%; the price of culled hens was 5.22 yuan/jin, down 0.57% [8]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3,020 yuan/ton, down 0.98%; the price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal were 36,286, up 14.2%; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 31,068, down 0.67%; soybean warehouse receipts were 29,758, down 1.13% [10]. Pig Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the pig 2507 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the pig 2509 contract was 13,660 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The spot price in Henan was 14,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Industry Data**: The sample - point slaughter rate decreased by 0.32% to 146,383 heads; the self - breeding profit per pig decreased by 4.35% to 81 yuan; the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.66% to 4,039 million heads [13]. Corn Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the corn 2507 contract was 2,335 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the corn starch 2507 contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hold price of corn was 2,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Changchun spot price of corn starch was 2,670 yuan/ton, unchanged [16]. - **Industry Data**: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 6.46% to 884; the corn starch warehouse receipts increased by 24.58% to 26,620 [16].

下 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/5/19 | | | 指标 | 4/18 | 5/9 | 5/12 | 5/13 | 5/16 | 日度变化 | 間度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR2505收盘价 | 11025 | 11450 | 11820 | 12205 | 12160 | -45 | 710 | | | | BR2505持仓量 | 16263 | 24120 | 25672 | 26422 | 20487 | -2935 | -3633 | | | ETE | BR2505成交量 | 123772 | 110734 | 189461 | 219791 | 134239 | -85552 | 23505 | | | | 仓単数量 | 15930 | 11630 | 11570 | 11540 | 11340 | -200 | -290 | | | | 虚实比 | 5.10 | 10.37 | 11.09 | 11.45 | 9.03 | -2 | -1 | | ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 19 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆豆粕： ...

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is discussing the establishment of position limits to curb excessive speculation, with limits set to take effect from July 2026 to prevent holdings from exceeding total inventory levels [1] - Steel and silver e-commerce data indicates that total urban inventory this week is 7.7211 million tons, a decrease of 419,800 tons compared to last week, with construction steel inventory down by 268,800 tons [1] - The annual crop survey in Kansas shows that the expected wheat yield is 53 bushels per acre, the highest level since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Antofagasta's Zaldivar copper mine in Chile has received environmental approval from the local government to extend its operational period until 2028 [2] - The Guinea mining bureau has issued a suspension order for operations at a mining site, affecting companies like Shunda Mining, with a total capacity of approximately 40 million tons per year, and the timeline for resumption is currently unknown [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the strengthening of international oil prices, L2509 rose significantly this week, with a 3.73% increase compared to last week's closing price, reaching 7236 yuan/ton as of May 16, 2025. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with support around 7150 and resistance around 7340 [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, supply decreased due to plant shutdowns, with production down 5.41% to 610,000 tons and capacity utilization down 4.55% to 79.52%. Demand picked up, with the average downstream product start - up rate rising 0.57%. Inventory pressure is not large, with production enterprise inventory down 8.27% to 527,800 tons and social inventory up 0.99% to 617,700 tons. Cost differences emerged, with oil - based LLDPE turning from profit to loss and coal - based LLDPE profits rising [7]. - In May, the PE industry has concentrated maintenance. Next week, production and capacity utilization are expected to decline slightly. Downstream demand varies by product, with packaging film orders increasing due to tariff cuts, while other products are in the off - season or have stable demand. International oil prices may adjust, which will impact costs [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: L2509 rose significantly this week, closing at 7236 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 3.73% from last week's close [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased due to plant shutdowns. Demand stopped falling and rebounded. Inventory pressure is not large. Cost differences emerged between oil - based and coal - based LLDPE [7]. - **Outlook**: In May, there is concentrated maintenance in the PE industry. Next week, production and capacity utilization are expected to decline slightly. Downstream demand varies, and international oil prices may adjust. The short - term trend of L2509 is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price, Volume**: L2509 rose significantly this week, and the trading volume of the main contract increased significantly [8]. - **Open Interest, Warehouse Receipts**: The open interest decreased week - on - week, and new warehouse receipts were registered this week [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 monthly spreads strengthened slightly, while the 5 - 9 monthly spread weakened slightly. The L - PP spread strengthened [18][24]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Price**: Domestic LLDPE prices are in the range of 7470 - 7830 yuan/ton, and the CFR China quotation is 846 US dollars/ton [29]. - **Basis**: The futures price is at a discount, and the basis weakened [34]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: This week, the RMB price of ethylene decreased slightly. In March, ethylene production and imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [38][41]. - **Supply**: In March, PE production increased month - on - month. This week, PE capacity utilization decreased week - on - week [45][50]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased, while the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased. Oil - based LLDPE profits shrank, coal - based profits recovered, and LLDPE import profits increased significantly, opening the import window [56][62][68]. - **Inventory**: This week, PE inventory decreased, and inventory pressure is not large [73]. 3.5 Demand in the Industrial Chain - **Downstream Price**: The prices of PE downstream products decreased [77]. - **Downstream Start - up Rate, Plastic Product Output**: This week, the average downstream start - up rate increased week - on - week. From January to March 2025, the cumulative output of plastic products increased 7.3% year - on - year. The start - up rate of different downstream products varied, with the packaging film start - up rate increasing 1.11% week - on - week, the agricultural film start - up rate decreasing 2.75% week - on - week, and the pipe start - up rate remaining stable [80][86][91]. - **Plastic Product Export**: From January to April 2025, the export value of plastic products decreased 2.10% year - on - year [91]. 3.6 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is reported at 15.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 11.95%, and that of put options is 11.94% [95].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term cautious bullish rating on styrene [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the rise of international oil prices, styrene prices rose significantly this week. The EB2506 contract closed at 7,661 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 9.36% from last week's closing price [7]. - On the supply side, Hengli Petrochemical's 720,000 - ton plant shut down for maintenance this week, with some plants increasing their operating loads. Production decreased by 1.27% month - on - month to 326,500 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 0.93% month - on - month to 71.27% [7]. - On the demand side, downstream operating rates mostly increased: EPS operating rate increased by 14.96% month - on - month to 62.34%, PS operating rate increased by 0.8% month - on - month to 57.1%, ABS operating rate decreased by 1.61% month - on - month to 67.39%, UPR operating rate increased by 6% month - on - month to 33%, and styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 0.54% month - on - month to 66.92% [7]. - In terms of inventory, factory inventory decreased by 8.17% month - on - month to 212,600 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 17.23% month - on - month to 56,700 tons, and South China port inventory increased by 24.14% month - on - month to 36,000 tons [7]. - In terms of cost, the spot price of pure benzene in East China increased significantly this week, the CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable, and non - integrated costs increased month - on - month. The styrene spot price rose strongly, and non - integrated profits were significantly repaired [7]. - Looking ahead, as the impact of Hengli's shutdown expands, the supply side is expected to continue to shrink in the near term. However, as industrial chain profits shift to styrene, the impact of maintenance may be weakened by the increased load of existing plants. Overseas commodity demand is being released intensively, and the high - level inventory of EPS, PS, and ABS is being reduced. However, attention should be paid to the possibility that a significant decline in downstream profits may affect the sustainability of operating rate growth. In terms of cost, the relationship between the US and Iran is expected to ease, OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and international oil prices still have room to correct. The inventory of pure benzene is at a moderate level, and downstream enterprises are cautious about chasing price increases. The restart of domestic plants and the arrival of overseas resources may suppress the future increase of pure benzene prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Styrene prices rose significantly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the rise of international oil prices. The EB2506 contract closed at 7,661 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 9.36% from last week [7]. - On the supply side, production and capacity utilization decreased. On the demand side, most downstream operating rates increased. Inventory showed a mixed trend, with factory and East China port inventory decreasing and South China port inventory increasing. Cost increased, and non - integrated profits were repaired [7]. - In the short term, styrene is cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the pressure around 7,950 for EB2506 and around 7,880 for EB2507 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main styrene contract rose sharply, and new warehouse receipts were registered this week. The trading volume decreased month - on - month, and the 06 - 07 spread strengthened slightly [8][13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price increased, and the futures price was at a discount. The price of ethylene in RMB decreased slightly, while the price of pure benzene in East China increased significantly [17][23]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply**: In March 2025, styrene production capacity was 22.242 million tons, and production was 1.5172 million tons, up 8.36% month - on - month and 32.55% year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate of styrene plants decreased month - on - month [33][37]. - **Demand**: Downstream product prices stopped falling and rebounded, and most downstream operating rates increased. EPS and PS operating rates increased, ABS operating rate decreased, UPR operating rate increased, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased [40][44][49]. - **Import and Export**: In March, styrene imports were 5,700 tons, down month - on - month and up year - on - year; exports were 22,000 tons, down both month - on - month and year - on - year [56]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory was 81,700 tons, and factory inventory was 212,600 tons. East China port inventory was 56,700 tons, and South China port inventory was 25,000 tons [62][66]. - **Cost and Profit**: Non - integrated costs increased, and profits were repaired. Import profits continued to be in the red, and the import window was closed [70][74]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the main styrene contract was 28.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.79%, and that of put options was 31.78% [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the PVC futures price fluctuated and rose this week. The V2509 contract closed at 4,947 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.96% from last week's close [9]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, some PVC production facilities were shut down for maintenance this week, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.64% to 77.70%. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate increased by 0.46% to 46.45%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.93% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate remaining stable at 35.9%. As of May 15, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 3.23% to 630,000 tons, and the inventory pressure was not significant. The costs of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profits of the two methods were repaired to varying degrees [9]. - Looking ahead, next week, there will be both shutdown and restart of facilities, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly, with generally low supply pressure. Affected by macro - positive factors, the domestic downstream start - up rate has rebounded, but the weak real estate market still drags down demand growth. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by uncertainties such as BIS certification and anti - dumping duties and the rainy season, and the unresolved tariffs imposed by the US on Vietnam may affect China's PVC raw material exports. The calcium carbide price may fluctuate, and the ethylene price may fluctuate slightly within a range. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support around 4,900 and resistance around 5,100 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The PVC futures price fluctuated and rose due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The V2509 contract closed at 4,947 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.96% from last week [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply side - some facilities were shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.64% to 77.70%. Demand side - the downstream start - up rate increased by 0.46% to 46.45%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.93% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate remaining stable at 35.9%. As of May 15, the social inventory decreased by 3.23% to 630,000 tons. The costs of calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profits were repaired [9]. - Outlook: Next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly, with low supply pressure. The domestic downstream start - up rate has rebounded, but real estate drags down demand. Exports face challenges. Calcium carbide and ethylene prices may fluctuate. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 4,900 and resistance at 5,100 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Futures price and warehouse receipts: The V2509 contract fluctuated and rose, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased week - on - week [10]. - Position and spread: The position of the main contract decreased week - on - week, and the 9 - 1 spread was slightly stronger [14]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot price - imports and exports: The CFR China quotation was 700 US dollars (+0), and the Southeast Asian quotation was 670 US dollars (+0) [20]. - Spot price - overseas: The Indian quotation was 700 US dollars (+0) [25]. - Spot price - domestic calcium carbide method and ethylene method: The prices of calcium carbide method and ethylene method in East China increased week - on - week [28]. - Basis: The basis fluctuated, and the futures market remained in a contango state [33]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Lanthanum coke and calcium carbide: The prices of lanthanum coke and calcium carbide remained stable this week. The lanthanum coke start - up rate was 54.13%, and the calcium carbide start - up rate was 64.38% [37][43]. - EDC and VCM: The VCM CIF intermediate price was 520 US dollars/ton, and the EDC international price was 162 US dollars/ton [47]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply - capacity and output: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in March was 2.0691 million tons, a month - on - month increase [51]. - Supply - capacity utilization and maintenance: The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [55]. - Demand - downstream start - up rate: The pipe start - up rate increased week - on - week, and the profile start - up rate remained stable [59]. - Demand - PVC floor exports: The PVC floor exports in March increased month - on - month [63]. - Imports and exports: Exports in March increased month - on - month, and imports increased month - on - month but remained at a low level [66]. - Inventory: The PVC social inventory decreased week - on - week [70]. - Cost: The calcium carbide method cost decreased slightly, and the ethylene method cost decreased week - on - week [74]. - Profit: The process profits of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method were repaired this week [80]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.90%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.89%, and that of put options was 19.93% [85].