5. 丰隆投资银行（HLIB）发布报告称，维持2025年和2026年的毛棕榈油平均价格预测，分别为每吨 4000林吉特和3800林吉特，预计印尼主导的供应复苏将限制棕榈油价格的进一步上涨。HLIB称，年初 至今，毛棕榈油的平均价格为每吨4579林吉特。 金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月15日） 6. 阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至5月12日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为 1973.5万桶，比一周前减少了100.7万桶。 1. 据中钢协，2025年5月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢2205万吨，平均日产220.5万吨，日产环比 增长0.2%；生铁1990万吨，平均日产199.0万吨，日产环比增长1.6%；据此估算，本旬全国日产粗钢280 万吨、环比增长0.2%。 7. 马来西亚统计局公布的数据显示，马来西亚2025年3月天然橡胶产量为28712吨，较2月的36005吨下降 20.3%。同比来看，3月产量较上年同期的26966吨增长6.5%。2025年3月天然橡胶总库存较2月的206762 吨增加4.1%，至215054吨。 2. 据Mysteel，河钢5月硅铁招标询盘5700元/吨 ...

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印尼出口政策再添一把火！多头无视高企的产量、库存继续加码，棕榈油涨势能否持续？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the caustic soda industry, dated May 14, 2025, provided by Ruida Futures [2]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View - In the short - term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2450 and resistance around 2570. The reduction of Sino - US reciprocal tariff rates to 10% within 90 days is beneficial for non - aluminum terminal exports such as clothing. There is still support from overseas markets like Indonesia. However, the high - cost alumina plants' production cuts and new capacity launches coexist, with limited profit repair and difficult improvement in caustic soda consumption demand. Non - aluminum enterprises' replenishment rhythm is expected to slow down [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the futures trading volume is 678,133 lots, up 113,667 lots; the futures open interest is 190,125 lots, down 16,636 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 17,734 lots, down 8,248 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2520 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan, and the May contract is 0 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [3]. 2. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 225 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 676 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 50 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 95 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [3]. 4. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina is 2895 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3]. 5. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the United States starting from 12:01 on May 14, 2025. The tariff rate in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff rate on the United States was suspended for 90 days. The tariff measures in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped [3]. - From May 2 - 8, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.2% to 83.9% week - on - week. As of May 8, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises decreased by 6.6% week - on - week to 388,400 tons (wet tons), and decreased by 10.72% year - on - year [3]. - As of May 8, the alumina plant production cuts became more widespread, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to a low level. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 1.29% to 79.71% week - on - week, and the dyeing operating rate increased by 0.63% to 60.68% week - on - week [3]. 6. Viewpoint Summary - The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 6.6% to 388,400 tons last week, at a moderately high level in the same period. In May, the shut - down capacity in the chlor - alkali industry increased, alleviating the supply pressure. The alumina high - cost plant production cuts and new capacity launches coexisted, but the profit repair was limited, and the caustic soda consumption demand was difficult to increase. The non - aluminum enterprises' replenishment rhythm is expected to slow down. The Sino - US economic and trade talks are beneficial for non - aluminum terminal exports, and there is still support from overseas markets [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are subject to wide - range fluctuations due to macro - sentiment disturbances [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations affected by macro - sentiment [2][11]. - Coke is facing a first - round price cut and will fluctuate widely, while coking coal will fluctuate widely [2][14]. - Steam coal will show a weakening trend with increased coal mine inventory [2][18]. - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly with the boost of macro - expectations [2][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures contract 12509 was 714.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.56%); the position increased by 9,557 to 714,025 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices remained unchanged. The basis for 12505 against Super Special decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the 12509 - 12601 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement indicates that both sides will take measures to modify and cancel tariffs and suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,079 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.88%), with a trading volume of 1,930,069 hands and a position decrease of 29,285 hands. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.78%), with a trading volume of 660,865 hands and a position decrease of 29,461 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed various changes. The basis for RB2510 increased by 3 yuan/ton, and for HC2510 decreased by 15 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 8, steel production data showed a decrease in rebar production by 9.85 tons and an increase in hot - rolled coil production by 1.08 tons. Total inventory increased for both, and apparent demand decreased. The US promised to cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of them, with China taking corresponding measures [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon - iron remained unchanged, while silicon - manganese increased by 50 yuan/ton, and manganese ore increased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The basis and spreads showed different changes [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Some silicon - manganese enterprises in Chongqing, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia carried out production cuts or maintenance. Some steel mills finalized procurement prices and quantities [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes, and some basis and spreads also changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal index data. On May 13, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long - positions increased by 13,695 hands and short - positions increased by 18,191 hands; for the coke J2509 contract, long - positions increased by 74 hands and short - positions increased by 619 hands [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Steam Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The previous trading day's data of steam coal ZC2506 showed an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a high of 931.6 yuan/ton, a low of 840 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 18 hands and a position of 0 hands [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for southern port's foreign - trade steam coal and domestic production areas. On May 13, both long - and short - positions of the ZC2506 contract decreased by 0 hands [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: For different contracts of logs, there were changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions showed different trends, and basis and spreads also changed [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement indicates that both sides will take measures to modify and cancel tariffs and suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24].

点评 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 13 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2506 收于 38270 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.91%，持 仓减仓 17165 手至 52252 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 40500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格 40500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 2230 元/吨。 工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2506 收于 8230 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.6%，持仓减仓 9326 手至 16.2 手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9552 元/吨，较上一交易日持 稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 8300 元/吨，现货升水扩至 35 元/吨。日 内市场传出晶硅六大联合收购产能并减产等消息，后续落实情况仍待证 实。行业将再度召开有关多晶硅自律限产和挺价相关会议，计划新增产能 释放节奏或面临延后。临近交割期，多晶硅仓单虚实比过高，短期给予多 头空间，工业硅基本面暂无改善，盘面未受晶硅带动、延续弱势。跟踪会 议结果和仓单动向，警惕交割月前异动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监 ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1220 | 1220 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1360 | 1360 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1150 | 1170 | -20 | -1.71% | | | 华南报价 | 1320 | 1320 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1019 | 1047 | -28 | -2.67% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1016 | 1045 | -29 | -2.78% | | | 05基差 | 201 | 173 | 28 | 16.18% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-05-14 巴西双周产量低于预期，原糖期价强势反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13330元/吨，较前一日变动+90元/吨，幅度+0.68%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14332元/吨，较前一日变动+247元/吨，现货基差CF09+1002，较前一日变动+157；3128B棉全国均价14384元/ 吨，较前一日变动+197元/吨，现货基差CF09+1054，较前一日变动+107。 近期市场资讯，近日美国农业部公布了5月份的全球棉花供需平衡表，首次给出了2025/26年度的全球棉花平衡表。 其中，全球年度产量2565万吨，较上一年度减少71万吨，主要是中国和澳大利亚分别减产65和33万吨、而巴西增 产27万吨。消费则增加30万吨至2571万吨，印度、土耳其等多国消费预期增长，而相应的下调了中国消费预期。 进出口量双双增长，中国由于产量下调因而上调进口，此外土耳其、印度、越南以及孟加拉也提高了进口预期。 出口端美国和巴西增长明显，澳大利亚、土耳其小幅下滑。整体棉花期末库存维持不变。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。宏观方面，中美谈判取得实质性进 ...

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market sentiment for glass and soda ash is pessimistic, with both showing an oscillating downward trend. Glass production is decreasing, but due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, inventory is piling up. Soda ash production has declined due to increased plant maintenance, but the supply remains abundant, and the demand improvement space is limited [1] - Market analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with strong pessimism. In the spot market, the Shahe market was weak, the East China market had a narrow - range adjustment, the Central China market's prices were weak, the South China market's prices were stable for now, and the Northeast market remained unchanged. Overall, the shipment was average, mainly for external sales [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market oscillated weakly yesterday. In the spot market, the domestic soda ash market was stable with oscillations, and the transaction prices were flexible. The daily production of soda ash decreased, with an operating rate of 75.45% [1] - Supply - demand and logic - Glass: Recently, glass production has been on a downward trend. However, due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, the replenishment intensity and sustainability are weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. The high - temperature and rainy season is unfavorable for glass storage, and enterprises may have a stronger intention to reduce prices for inventory clearance [1] - Soda ash: Affected by increased plant maintenance, soda ash production has declined recently but remains in a loose state. Currently, the growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, the demand improvement space for soda ash is limited, and the inventory clearance pressure is still large [1] - Strategy - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] Group 2: Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market for silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is sluggish, with continuous increases in maintenance. The production of both is affected by industry profits and is at a low level, but the demand has certain resilience. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers suppresses prices, while the low - level manganese ore port inventory supports the alloy cost. The ferrosilicon price is currently dragged down by costs [3] - Market analysis - Silicomanganese: The market expectation has been weak recently. A large - scale silicomanganese enterprise in Chongqing decided to shut down 2 furnaces for maintenance. The daily average production of silicomanganese this week was 22,065 tons, with a theoretical weekly production of 154,455 tons. The silicomanganese futures market oscillated strongly. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated, with few quotes. The price in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,650 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market followed the black - goods sector, rising and then falling. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market was weak, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,900 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand and logic - Silicomanganese: Affected by industry profits, silicomanganese production continues to decline and is at a low level over the years. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for silicomanganese. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. However, the low - level manganese ore port inventory and the continuous decline in manganese ore prices support the alloy cost. Future attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3] - Ferrosilicon: In the context of enterprise losses, ferrosilicon production remains at a medium - low level. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for ferrosilicon. The manufacturers' inventory is continuously decreasing, and the downstream enterprises' inventory is at a low level. The ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively abundant, and the short - term price is dragged down by costs. Future attention should be paid to the impact of electricity price changes and industrial policies on the black - goods sector [3] - Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4]