印度尼西亚放宽了10种商品的进口规定。 ...

2025年06月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：现货情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：港口报价提振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：检查扰动持续发酵，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 30 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 716. 5 | 11.0 | 1.56% | | | | ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from June 23 to June 27, with the black and base metal sectors leading gains, influenced by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, while fuel, crude oil, and European shipping routes faced declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel prices fell by 10.73%, crude oil by 12.02%, while lithium carbonate rose by 7.47% [1] - The black metal sector saw increases in coke by 2.67%, coking coal by 6.60%, and iron ore by 1.92% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices fell by 12.46% to $66.34 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil dropped by 12.12% to $65.07 per barrel due to supply-demand dynamics [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil demand growth is expected to slow, with projections for 2025/2026 revised down to 720,000 to 740,000 barrels per day [2][3] - Analysts noted that while geopolitical tensions may support oil prices in the short term, long-term demand expectations are being adjusted downward, particularly with OPEC+ planning to discuss production levels [4] Group 3: Copper Market Insights - The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a weekly increase of 2.47%, closing at 79,920 yuan per ton, with a volatility of 2.42% [5] - Supply remains stable with sufficient copper ore port inventories, but increased export intentions are tightening domestic supply [6] - Global copper demand is projected to double by 2035, but supply may face a significant shortfall of up to 30% [7] Group 4: Industrial Profit Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 9.1% year-on-year decline in profits for industrial enterprises in May, with a cumulative decline of 1.1% for the first five months [9] - Equipment manufacturing and "new" industries showed profit expansion, while consumer manufacturing remained sluggish [9] - The profit structure remains concentrated in midstream manufacturing, with potential support from improved infrastructure investment and declining raw material prices [9][10] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding interest rate adjustments, with officials indicating a lack of urgency for rate cuts amid economic uncertainties [12] - Recent data revisions showed a contraction in U.S. GDP for the first quarter, raising concerns about economic growth and influencing market expectations for future Fed actions [13][14]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：目前豆粕交易逻辑并未改变，来自于原料大豆进口成本的变化，令豆粕期价跟随外盘美豆波动 节奏。在国内油厂远期买船依旧谨慎的背景下，下游市场对远期供应收紧的预期支撑了采购需求。近期油 厂开工率持续攀升，豆粕提货量高位回落，油厂豆粕库存连续 8 周缓慢回升，但仍处于偏低水平。短期而 言，上下库存均在增加，对豆粕价格构成一定压力。令豆粕期价或转为区间震荡运行。 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收 ...

牛牛市市旗旗手手券券商商板板块块大大涨涨，，行行情情能能否否持持续续？？ 22002255年年66月月2233日日--22002255年年66月月2277日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周A股强势上涨，债市小幅回调，黄金回落，美股和美债上涨。具体来看，本周市场有以下 几个重要方面： 在国际地缘风险降低，美元指数年内新低，中美经贸谈判边际趋好的综合背景下，预计股票市场风 险偏好有望维持。鉴于指数普涨并非自经济基本面的驱动，故短期行情趋势更依赖市场成交的持续 性。但即使市场成交不能持续放量，在当前市场风险偏好下，预计市场依然会有比较多的结构性投 资机会。 01 本周市场普涨，强势表现超出市场预期。以伊停火协议助力全球市场风险偏好回升，香港稳 定币相关政策推动券商和金融科技板块大涨，银行和非银板块合力推动指数上行的行情在周 五稍缓。上证指数本周年内新高，但其他指数相对年内高点较远，本周近九成个股取得正收 益。 02 债市方面，本周债市小幅震荡回调。资金面上，尽管季末资金面较为紧张但央行本周累计净 投放超万亿，整体来看资金面较为均衡。基本面上，5月经济数据等仍偏弱，经济复苏有待 时日，对债市较为有利。消息面上地缘政治 ...

商品期货开盘，多晶硅、工业硅主力合约涨超3%，对二甲苯涨超2%，PTA、纯碱、焦煤、焦炭、碳酸 锂、烧碱涨超1%。原油、沪银、沪金、燃料油跌超1%。 ...

波司登（03998） 证券研究报告 库存周转天数 118 天，同比小幅上升 3 天。在暖冬环境下良好的库存管理， 得益于积极采用拉式补货和小单快反的调节机制，并有效推进全渠道商品 一体化运营管理。 港股公司报告 | 公司点评 再创佳绩，经营效率提升 公司发布 24/25 财年报告 营收 259 亿，同比+12%，毛利率 57%，同比-2pct，OPM19%略有提 升，净利润 36 亿元，同比+14%。 营收和净利润连续 8 年创同期历史新高，其中经营溢利增速再次快于收入 增速，经营溢利提升 13%。 毛利率下降 2pct，主要受到三个因素的影响：1）渠道结构变化：经销商 渠道销售增长高于自营，且经销商毛利率相比自营较低；2）产品品类结 构变化：防晒服等新品类毛利率相较羽绒服产品略低；3）成本变化：羽 绒等核心原材料成本上涨。 聚焦羽绒服主业，实现高质量发展 波司登品牌营收 185 亿元，同比+10%，公司一方面打造"中国好羽绒" IP、开创"尔滨×波司登"城市品牌联名；另一方面，通过产品的优化与 拓展、数字化转型、精细化运营渠道。 雪中飞品牌营收 22 亿元，同比+9%，公司深挖品牌"冰雪"基因，通过 聚焦品 ...

始于信 达于行 诚信 融合 创新 卓越 Integrity Integration Innovation Excellence 量化研究员 陈蔚文 交易咨询证号：Z0019441 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：chenweiwen@cindasc.com 商品期货量化周报 Commodity Futures Quantitative Report 2025年6月29日 板块涨跌 Wind商品指数下跌1.01% ， Wind贵金属指数下跌1.06% ， Wind有色金属指数大涨3.98% ， Wind煤焦钢矿指数大涨2.24% ， Wind能源指数猛跌11.01% ， Wind化工指数大跌2.27% ， Wind非金属建材指数上涨1.08% ， Wind油脂油料指数大跌3.58% ， Wind软商品指数小涨0.76% ， Wind谷物指数小跌0.81% ， Wind农副产品指数上涨1.49% 。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明条款 1 品种涨跌 本周品种涨跌不一，其中工业硅指数暴涨8.48%，碳酸锂指数大涨7.16%，焦煤指数大涨6.99%，多晶硅指数大涨5 .92%，红枣指数大涨4.83%，原油指 ...

本期 10 年期国债换手率明显回落、30Y 国债换手率回升，因此 30/10Y 国债换手率快速上升 87 个百分点，除此外，TL/T 多空比也回升 10 个百分点。上市公司理财买入量、商品比价分位值不同程度回落。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率。 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量上升至 7 个（占比 35%）、位于中性区间的指标数量仍为 6 个（占比 30%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量下降至 7 个（占比 35%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，30/10Y 国债换手率由偏冷区间 升至过热区间，全市场换手率、货币松紧预期均由中性区间升至过热区间，市场利差由偏冷区间升至过热区间，1/10Y 国债换手率则由过热区间降至中性区间。 分类别来看，①本期交易热度分位均值大幅回升 14 个百分点，其中 30/10Y 国债换手率分位值大幅回升 87 个百分点， TL/T 多空比分位值也上升 10 个百分点，不过 1/10Y 国债换手率回落 17 个百分点。②机构行为类中，基金久期、分歧 度分位值均回升 6 个百分点，上市公司理财买入量分位值回落 17 个百分点，带动机构行为分为均值小幅下降 2 ...

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - Gold is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, while copper and oil are anticipated to trend upwards [1][14] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees have plummeted, and the Panama copper mine has not yet resumed operations, indicating a tight supply for copper, which supports an upward price trend [15] Group 2: Consumer Trends - Passenger car sales have rebounded, while new and second-hand housing sales have weakened, with first-tier cities seeing a decline in second-hand housing price growth [3] - The summer consumption heat is recovering, with an increase in foot traffic in commercial areas and subway passenger volumes, alongside improved hotel occupancy rates and average room prices [4] Group 3: Foreign Trade - Overall export performance is weakening, with shipments to the U.S. shifting from growth to decline [5][6] - Concerns over the expiration of tariff exemptions have led to a decrease in container bookings to the U.S., with a corresponding drop in shipping volumes [7] Group 4: Production Insights - Demand remains relatively resilient, with an increase in the price of thermal coal due to rising daily coal consumption at power plants [9][12] - The production of rebar has increased, and while social inventory continues to decline, factory inventory has shifted from decline to increase [11] Group 5: Price Movements - Geopolitical risks have eased, leading to a decline in gold and oil prices, although oil prices may rebound if conflicts resume [13] - Domestic prices for cement, rebar, glass, and thermal coal have shown signs of recovery [13]