1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international situations [6][9][11] - For most commodities, investors are advised to pay attention to market trends, control risks, and choose appropriate investment strategies according to specific market conditions. 3. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan on the day. China's June CPI turned positive year - on - year, and PPI continued to decline. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][6][7] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The State Council issued a notice to support stable employment. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [8][9][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and central banks' gold - buying behavior support the long - term bull market of precious metals. It is considered to go long on gold futures [11][12] Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. An important meeting triggered expectations of supply contraction, but the real estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. There is a risk of further price decline, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but the price valuation is relatively high. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. An important meeting triggered supply - contraction expectations, but the actual supply may increase. The short - term trend is strong, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The short - term supply may be in excess, and the price is under pressure. If the spot loss intensifies, investors can consider low - value call options [19][20] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose strongly. OPEC + will increase production in August and September, but the increase will end in September. The market has stabilized after a decline, and investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities for the main contract [21][23][24] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil opened higher and fluctuated. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory is negative, while the easing of tariff frictions is positive. The price has stabilized after a sharp decline, and investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities for the main contract [25][26] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The raw material price has declined, and the profit has turned positive. The supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize and participate in the rebound [27][29] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber rose. Domestic production areas are affected by rainfall, and overseas supply is increasing. The demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to medium - term long - buying opportunities [30][31] PVC - Last trading day, PVC rose. The expected production will continue to decline, the demand has not improved, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to remain weak, showing a bottom - oscillating pattern [32][35] Urea - Last trading day, urea rose. The demand is expected to improve this week, driving inventory reduction. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [36][37] PX - Last trading day, PX rose slightly. The supply - demand has improved slightly in the short term, and the cost support from crude oil has improved. The price will oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors should participate cautiously [38] PTA - Last trading day, PTA rose. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term, and the cost support from crude oil exists. The price may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate with a light position [39] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol declined. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, suppressing the price, but the inventory is at a low level, providing support. Investors should participate within a range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [40] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber rose. The downstream demand and cost have weakened, but the low inventory of factories can limit the decline. Investors can participate with a light position following the cost and pay attention to taking profits when the processing fee is high [41][42] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips rose. The raw material price is oscillating, the number of device overhauls has increased, and the inventory is being reduced. The price is expected to oscillate following the cost. Investors should participate cautiously and pay attention to expanding the processing fee when it is low [43] Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to alleviate. The price increase is mainly driven by the energy sector, and investors should be cautious as a bull [44][45] Glass - Last trading day, glass rose. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force, and the market sentiment is weak. The price is mainly stable, and most deep - processing enterprises maintain rigid demand [46][47] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda rose. The supply - demand is generally loose with regional differences. The price in most mainstream areas has declined, and the basis has narrowed. Although the market is bullish in the short term, the fundamental support is limited [48][49] Pulp - Last trading day, pulp rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust. The market trading sentiment is average, and the paper mill's procurement is light [50][52] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, and the inventory is high. Do not chase the high price before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [53] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper declined sharply due to the US tariff increase. The price decline has expanded, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see state. Temporarily wait and see for the main contract [54][55] Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The ore supply is tight, the overall supply is short, and the demand is good. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [56] Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel declined slightly. The mine price has weakened, the consumption is not optimistic, and the supply is in excess. The price is expected to oscillate [57] Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and the domestic supply is loose. Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels and call options for soybean oil after a decline [58][59] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has risen for three consecutive days. The domestic inventory is at a medium - high level. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed declined. The domestic import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high or low level. Consider long - buying opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [62][63] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton rose slightly. The US cotton growth is good, and the global supply - demand is expected to be loose. The domestic industry is in the off - season. Consider short - selling at high levels [64][65][66] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated. The Brazilian production increase expectation has been adjusted downward, and the domestic inventory is low. The price will oscillate within a range [67][70][71] Apple - Last trading day, apple futures oscillated. The national apple production is expected to increase slightly. Consider short - selling opportunities at high levels [72][73] Live Pigs - Yesterday, the national average price of live pigs was flat. The supply pressure is increasing, and the consumption is weak. Consider short - selling at high levels [74][75] Eggs - Last trading day, the egg price was flat. The egg supply is expected to increase in July, and it is in the consumption off - season. Hold short positions [76][77] Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn declined slightly, and corn starch rose slightly. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is advisable to wait and see [78][79][80] Logs - Last trading day, logs declined. The overseas export willingness has decreased, and the domestic inventory is being reduced. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [81][83]

Group 1 - Concerns are rising over Japan's fiscal expansion as the Senate elections approach, leading to increased focus on the demand for long-term Japanese government bonds (JGB) and potential global financial market impacts [1][2] - The 20-year Japanese government bond yield has reached a 25-year high, with the 30-year yield also surpassing the critical 3% mark, reflecting investor anxiety over ongoing budget deficits [2][5] - Major institutional investors in Japan, including banks and insurance companies, are expected to be cautious in bidding for JGBs, awaiting the Senate election results and their implications for fiscal policy [5][6] Group 2 - The upcoming auction results for the 20-year JGB will be closely monitored, particularly the bid-to-cover ratio and tail value, which indicate investor interest and demand strength [6] - Recent adjustments to Japan's borrowing plans aim to curb rising yields, but market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued upward pressure on yields [6][7] - The potential for a return of "term premium" in the bond market is highlighted, as rising yields in Japan could spill over into U.S. Treasury yields, leading to increased market volatility [7][8]

Economic Overview - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from negative to positive growth, with food prices showing a reduced decline and non-food prices slightly rising [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with a widening decline, indicating that living material prices performed better than production material prices [1] - The average CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, while the average PPI was -2.9%, reflecting a low overall price level in the domestic market [1] External Factors - International commodity prices have decreased, creating downward pressure on domestic prices, particularly affecting industries related to oil and gas, with oil and gas extraction prices down by 12.6% year-on-year and fuel prices down by 10.4% [1] - The rise of anti-globalization sentiments and "reciprocal tariffs" from the U.S. has led to increased trade barriers, impacting China's export industries and potentially leading to further price declines in related sectors [2] Internal Factors - The acceleration of energy structure transformation and the increase in green energy have contributed to lower energy prices, with coal mining and washing prices dropping by 21.8% year-on-year due to reduced demand for thermal power [2] - Intense market competition in certain industries, particularly in manufacturing, has led to price suppression, with many companies engaging in price wars due to product homogeneity [3] Structural Price Changes - Policies aimed at reducing "involution competition" have helped alleviate overcapacity in certain sectors, leading to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as automotive manufacturing and lithium battery production [3] - Consumption-boosting policies have positively impacted certain consumer goods sectors, resulting in price increases for items like arts and crafts, sports goods, and smart consumer products [4] - High-tech industries related to smart manufacturing and digital economy are experiencing rapid growth, with product prices showing a year-on-year increase, indicating a promising future for economic transformation [5]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The report highlights the exposure of fiscal risks, indicating potential global liquidity shocks [3][7][18] - A shift from globalization to confrontation has disrupted the stable state of the global economy, with the long-term downward trend of 10-year US Treasury yields being broken [7][18] - The divergence between US Treasury yields and the dollar reflects an extreme pricing of fiscal risks [9][14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic deflation expectations are easing, activating a persistent accumulation of excess liquidity [3][57] - The report notes that actual interest rates are declining from high levels, which alleviates the financing costs for various economic sectors [78] - The report indicates that the actual dollar index is building a mid-term top, which may relieve external pressures on the economic cycle [82] Group 3: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing rapid rotation within a narrow range, driven by excess liquidity [3][57] - Small-cap stocks are expected to outperform due to the accumulation of excess liquidity since 2024 [118][121] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including AI, robotics, and military industries, which have shown resilience amid trade tensions [117] Group 4: Industry Allocation Insights - The report emphasizes the correlation between excess liquidity and sectoral excess returns, particularly in sectors like electrical machinery and chemical materials [121][124] - The report suggests that the market is not driven by improved economic expectations but rather by key technological breakthroughs that shift deflation expectations [91] - The report indicates that the speed of industry rotation has increased, suggesting a dynamic market environment [104]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bond market, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be exercised [6][7] - For the stock index, the long - term performance is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [9][10] - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [11][12] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, short - term rallies can be considered for shorting [13] - For iron ore, low - level buying opportunities can be considered [15] - For coking coal and coke, short - term rallies can be considered for shorting [17] - For ferroalloys, the overall price is under pressure, and long - position investors need to be cautious [19][20][21] - For crude oil, the main contract can be considered for long - position opportunities [22][23][24] - For fuel oil, the main contract can be considered for long - position opportunities [25][26] - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rally [27][28] - For natural rubber, it may experience weak fluctuations in the short term, and mid - term long - position opportunities can be monitored [28][29] - For PVC, it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [30][32] - For urea, it may fluctuate in the short term and be treated with a bullish view in the medium term [33][34] - For PX, it may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and participation should be cautious [35] - For PTA, it may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and light - position participation is recommended [36][37] - For ethylene glycol, short - term supply - demand weakening suppresses the market, and interval participation is recommended [38] - For staple fiber, follow the cost side with light positions and monitor opportunities to widen processing margins [39][40] - For bottle chips, it is expected to oscillate following the cost side, and cautious participation is recommended [41] - For soda ash, the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, and the price may be under pressure [42] - For glass, the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the market sentiment is weak [44][45] - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price may have limited upward momentum [46][47] - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust, and the price of household paper may remain weakly stalemated [48][49][50] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, and investors should not chase high prices [51] - For copper, the price may be supported by China's stimulus policies in the second half of the year [52] - For tin, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [53] - For nickel, the price is expected to oscillate [54] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals and call option opportunities for soybean oil at support intervals after pullbacks [55][56][57] - For palm oil, consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][60] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long - position opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [61][62] - For cotton, it is recommended to short at high prices [63][64][65] - For sugar, it is expected to oscillate within a range [66][68][69] - For apples, consider short - position opportunities at high prices [70][71] - For live pigs, consider temporary observation [71][72] - For eggs, consider holding short positions [73][74][75] - For corn and corn starch, it is advisable to observe [76][77][78] - For logs, it is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [79][80][81] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market - On the previous trading day, bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62 billion yuan on the day. Trump extended the tariff suspension period to August 1st. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is recommended to be cautious [5][6] Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. In June 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures can be considered [8][9] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The R & D of platinum and palladium futures is in the final stage. The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold purchases, and potential Fed rate cuts are favorable for precious metals, and going long on gold futures can be considered [11] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coils) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The important meeting triggered expectations of supply contraction, but the downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity still suppress prices. It is recommended to short on rallies [13] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The iron water output decreased, and the supply increased. The supply - demand pattern weakened marginally. It is recommended to buy at low levels [15] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated slightly. The meeting triggered supply contraction expectations, but the over - capacity still exists. It is recommended to short on rallies [17] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon rose slightly, and ferrosilicon fell slightly. The supply of manganese ore increased, and the demand for ferroalloys was weak. The overall price is under pressure, and long - position investors need to be cautious [19] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. OPEC + will increase production in August and September, and the market has stabilized after a decline. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [22][23][24] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The Asian fuel oil market is under pressure due to oversupply and weak demand. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory is negative, but the easing of tariff friction is positive. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [25][26] Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The raw material cost decreased, and the profit turned positive. The supply is relatively loose in the short term. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rally [27][28] Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber rose. Domestic rainfall affected tapping, and overseas shipments increased supply pressure. The demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate weakly [28][29] PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC rose slightly. The production is expected to decline, the demand has no improvement, and the cost support is weak. The price is expected to remain weak [30][32] Urea - On the previous trading day, urea rose. The demand is expected to improve this week, and the inventory will be reduced. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33][34] PX - On the previous trading day, PX rose slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The cost support is weak. The price may oscillate and adjust in the short term [35] PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA rose slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand decreased slightly. The cost support is weak. The price may oscillate and adjust in the short term [36][37] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol fell. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased slightly. The price may be under pressure in the short term [38] Staple Fiber - On the previous trading day, staple fiber fell slightly. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak. The cost support was weak. Follow the cost side with light positions [39][40] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chips fell slightly. The raw material price decreased, but the device maintenance increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate following the cost side [41] Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash rose. The production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, and the price may be under pressure [42] Glass - On the previous trading day, glass remained unchanged. The production line was stable, and the supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious drivers. The market sentiment was weak [44][45] Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda rose. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price may have limited upward momentum [46][47] Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp rose slightly. The downstream demand was weak, and the supply pressure increased. The pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust, and the household paper price may remain weakly stalemated [48][49][50] Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The central government's policy triggered supply - side reform expectations, but the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Investors should not chase high prices [51] Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. The spot price decreased slightly. The price may be supported by China's stimulus policies in the second half of the year [52] Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The mine supply was tight. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [53] Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The downstream demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate [54] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal fell, and soybean oil rose. The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas strengthened the harvest expectation. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the cost support increased. Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals and call option opportunities for soybean oil at support intervals after pullbacks [55][56][57] Palm Oil - On the previous trading day, palm oil is expected to rise. The threat of US tariffs may reduce Indonesia's exports. The Malaysian inventory is expected to decrease. Consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][60] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, rapeseed and rapeseed oil rebounded. The domestic import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased. Consider long - position opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [61][62] Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fluctuated. The US cotton growing conditions are good, and the global supply - demand is expected to be loose. It is recommended to short at high prices [63][64][65] Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [66][68][69] Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures fell slightly. The production is expected to increase slightly this year. It is recommended to short at high prices [70][71] Live Pigs - Yesterday, the national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The northern pig prices rebounded, and the southern pig prices were mostly stable. The consumption is weak in summer. It is recommended to observe temporarily [71][72] Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg price decreased. The egg production increased, and the cost decreased. It is recommended to hold short positions [73][74][75] Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The good weather in the US strengthened the harvest expectation. The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is advisable to observe [76][77][78] Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures fell slightly. The overseas export willingness decreased, and the domestic inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [79][80][81]

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2%[5] - Industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025[5] - The service production index rose by 5.9% year-on-year during the same period[5] Consumption Trends - Social retail sales increased by 5.0% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with goods retail sales up by 5.1% and service retail sales up by 5.2%[6] - The "old-for-new" policy drove sales of five major categories to 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers[6] - Retail sales of sports and entertainment products surged by 28.3% year-on-year in May 2025[6] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with manufacturing investment increasing by 8.5%[9] - Investment in consumer goods manufacturing rose by 13.2%, while infrastructure investment saw a decline, with a year-on-year drop of 10.4% in real estate development investment[9][27] Export Performance - Total goods imports and exports increased by 2.5% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with exports rising by 7.2%[10] - The share of exports to the U.S. decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 11.9% in May 2025, while exports to ASEAN increased from 12.8% to 17.8%[10] Policy Environment - The fiscal deficit for 2025 is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of 4%, marking the highest level in recent years[14] - The central government’s deficit is projected at 4.86 trillion yuan, accounting for 85.9% of the total deficit, also a record high[15] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has shifted to "moderately loose," with measures including a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reductions[19] - Social financing increased by 8.7% year-on-year as of May 2025, with M2 growth at 7.9%[19] Future Economic Trends - GDP growth is expected to reach 5.0% for the full year 2025, with Q2 growth projected at 5.3% and subsequent quarters at 4.8% and 4.6% respectively[21] - Consumer spending is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of 5.1% for the year, driven by structural changes in consumption patterns[22] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment is projected to grow by 7.9% for the year, supported by government policies and technological advancements[23] - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 6.7% for the year, bolstered by active fiscal policies and project approvals[28] Export Resilience - Exports are forecasted to grow by 1.2% for the year, supported by diversification in trade partners and product structures[30]

2025 年 7 月 8 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | . | C ST | | 螺纹、热卷: | | C ST | | 铁矿石: | | ( | | 焦煤焦炭: . | | | | 铁合金: | | 1 | | 原油: | | 1 – | | 燃料油: | | C | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | .. | 10 | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | .. | | | 对二甲苯 PX: | ... 11 | | | PTA: 11 | | | | 乙二醇: . | | | | 短纤: . | | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂: ...

Group 1 - The trade conflict between the US and China has escalated significantly, with tariffs reaching as high as 125% before a temporary agreement to reduce them to 10% was reached [1] - Analysts predict that this trade competition will be a long-term struggle, as the economic goals of both countries are fundamentally at odds [1][3] - The US's "equal tariffs" policy aims to reduce its trade deficit by imposing high tariffs on countries with which it has a trade deficit, particularly China [3][5] Group 2 - The root cause of the global imbalance is linked to the unique position of the US dollar, which allows the US to maintain a trade deficit due to its ability to print money without cost [5][6] - The dollar's dominance has led to the hollowing out of the US manufacturing sector, with its share of GDP dropping from 24% in the 1970s to an estimated 10% in 2024 [6] - The benefits of globalization have been unevenly distributed in the US, leading to increased social tensions and a growing income gap between workers and capital owners [7] Group 3 - The US has two potential strategies to address the challenges posed by globalization: abandoning dollar hegemony and implementing a universal basic income policy [10] - However, these strategies are difficult to implement due to the entrenched interests in the current system, leading to a retreat into "de-globalization" as a secondary option [10][11] - The economic relationship between the US and China has become increasingly imbalanced, with China experiencing trade surpluses and low consumption while the US faces trade deficits and high consumption [11][14] Group 4 - China faces significant challenges in boosting effective demand, which is crucial for economic growth, as income distribution has historically favored capital over labor [16][18] - The country has three potential strategies to address demand issues: a fundamental shift towards consumption, investment-driven growth, and managing excess capacity [18][21] - The current policy focus is on investment to stabilize economic growth, particularly through infrastructure and real estate initiatives [25] Group 5 - The Chinese market is currently experiencing bottom-level fluctuations across stock, bond, and currency markets, with expectations for government intervention to support growth [26][29] - The stock market is supported by state intervention, while the bond market faces limited room for further interest rate cuts due to low demand sensitivity [26][29] - The Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable against the dollar, with the central bank actively managing its value to prevent significant depreciation [29]

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical turning point of globalization, highlighted by the U.S. proposal for "reciprocal tariffs," which reflects a significant trade deficit and domestic demand issues in the U.S. and a mirrored situation in China with excess production capacity and insufficient domestic demand [2][8][67] - The U.S. has proposed a 10% tariff on all countries, with an additional 34% tariff specifically on China, indicating a strategic move to address trade imbalances [4][68] - The rapid escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China, reaching as high as 125%, signifies a volatile trade relationship that has substantial implications for global economic dynamics [6][11] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need for a macroeconomic perspective to understand the complexities of trade relations, arguing that microeconomic experiences cannot adequately inform macroeconomic policies [10][12][20] - It highlights the importance of recognizing the interconnectedness of economic variables, where government spending can influence overall economic health and consumer behavior [52][56] - The analysis points out that the U.S. trade deficit is fundamentally linked to its domestic demand exceeding production capacity, necessitating imports to meet consumption needs [74][90][93] Group 3 - The article outlines the implications of the U.S. dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, which allows the U.S. to maintain high levels of trade deficits without immediate repercussions [106][110] - It discusses the potential consequences of the U.S. pursuing a policy of reciprocal tariffs, which may lead to reduced dollar outflows and impact the country's ability to sustain its debt levels [153][159] - The article suggests that the U.S. may face significant challenges in maintaining its economic model if it continues down the path of protectionism, potentially leading to a debt crisis [161][162] Group 4 - The article posits that China's economic strategy must adapt in response to the U.S. shift towards protectionism, emphasizing the need to boost domestic demand to mitigate reliance on exports [139][141] - It argues that if China can effectively stimulate internal consumption and investment, it could enhance its position in the global economy amidst changing trade dynamics [142][146] - The analysis concludes that the future of globalization will depend significantly on China's policy choices and its ability to navigate the challenges posed by U.S. trade policies [165][168]

理性投资，风险自担 核心观点 基本面：美国关税谈判大限将至，但与多数国家谈判陷入僵局，美国经济政策不确定性指数长期持续处于历史高位，美国 的逆全球化和贸易保护主义行为对全球经济和金融市场带来巨大冲击，制造业、出口型企业股票和大宗商品等资产收益受损 ，在当前全球经济与地缘政治不稳定的环境下，贵金属作为一项战略性资产具备良好的抵御风险能力，贵金属等避险资产需 求上升，全球央行加仓黄金意愿更加强烈。 资金面：上周COMEX黄金和白银库存有所回落；全球黄金储备不断延续走高，近4 3 %的央行计划在未来一年内 增加自身黄金储备；全球主要白银ETF资金加速流入，白银较黄金资金关注度上升；上周对冲基金多头在黄金 上增持力度放缓。 策略：沪金价格长期看多，短期延续高位震荡，中期建议持多；沪银短期维持高位震荡，中期建议持多或急跌 震荡区间下沿做多。 风险提示：地缘政治冲突，美国货币与财政政策，关税贸易风险 目 录 1 行情回顾 2 宏观面：关注美国关税政策扰动 3 持仓分析：对冲基金更关注白银机会 4 其他要素 行情回顾 重点指标涨跌幅 | 品 种 | 重点数据指标 | 最新 | 一 期 | 上 一 | 期 | 周变化 | | ...