Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures products, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding investment strategies and advice [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: Market sentiment is strong, and tin prices have reached a record high. Supply may increase as Myanmar's tin mine复产 progresses, while demand shows regional differences. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and options are recommended for trading [2][31][35]. - **LLDPE**: Upstream prices have risen, and hedging transactions are booming. Supply is expected to increase, demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and some long positions are recommended to be closed [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal trading in Shanxi has improved, and Mongolian coal prices follow futures. Supply is increasing slightly, demand for restocking is warming up, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [3][59]. - **Pigs**: Driven by capital sentiment, the futures price has strengthened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating, supply in January is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to go short after stabilization [4][74]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: A - shares were volatile at a high level. The TMT sector was hot, while the large - finance sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis of some contracts changed [5][6]. - **News**: The margin ratio for margin trading has been adjusted, and overseas, the US is considering responses to the Iranian situation. A - share trading volume continued to increase, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [6][7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: A - shares may have limited downward space after a pull - back. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH appropriately. Use bull spreads for small - and medium - cap indexes [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher. The yield of some bonds decreased [8]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the net investment was 2122 billion yuan. The funding situation was tight, but the central bank's long - term investment may stabilize short - term fluctuations [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The bond market is in a short - term oscillating situation. It is recommended to continue to wait and see on a single - side strategy and tend to steepen the curve on a curve strategy [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US economic data showed consumption and inflation resilience. The Fed's Beige Book indicated economic improvement, and the dollar index was stable. Precious metals generally rose, with gold and silver reaching new highs [11][13]. - **Outlook**: The US economy and employment are weak. Geopolitical risks drive capital to allocate precious metals. Gold is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. Silver is expected to have a higher price center, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term [13][14]. Shipping (Container Shipping Index - European Line) - **Index Performance**: The SCFIS European line index and some shipping rates increased, while the SCFI composite index decreased slightly [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container capacity increased, and demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [15]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The futures price oscillated upwards, but the spot price is in a downward cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories are accumulating. Supply and demand are affected by factors such as US inflation data and the situation in Venezuela. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [16][19]. - **Alumina**: The spot price is loose, and the futures price oscillates widely. The core contradiction is between policy expectations and a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on rallies in the medium term [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: The price is strong, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamental situation is under pressure, with increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended not to chase the price and consider long positions after a pull - back [23][25]. - **Zinc**: The price center has shifted upwards, and the spot premium has decreased. Supply is affected by mine shortages and smelter production cuts, and demand is suppressed by high prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the long term and hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions [28][31]. - **Tin**: The price has reached a record high. Supply may increase, and demand shows regional differences. It is recommended to wait and see [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand varies in different sectors. The market is affected by Indonesian policies and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to have a bullish view [35][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates strongly, driven by raw material costs. Supply pressure eases slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to expect a strong - oscillating trend [39][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price oscillates widely. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand has some resilience. Social inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [43][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price oscillates, with support at 48,000 yuan/ton. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price oscillates strongly. Supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to production cut implementation [48][50]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation phase, and steel prices oscillate. Spot prices are stable to weak, costs are rising, and production is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in January [50][52]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is facing the off - season, and port inventories are accumulating. The futures price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand has some support. It is recommended to trade within a range [53][54]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing slightly, demand for restocking is warming up, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [55][59]. - **Coke**: The price oscillates. After the fourth price cut, the market is stable. Supply and demand are improving, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [60][64]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates. Supply is at a low level, and demand has some support from steelmaking and non - steel sectors. It is recommended to go long on dips [65][66]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates. Supply is at a neutral - to - low level, and demand has support from steelmaking. Manganese ore prices are strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [67][70]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The auction premium is limited, and soybean meal oscillates. The US soybean supply and demand situation affects the market, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [71][73]. - **Pigs**: Driven by capital sentiment, the futures price has strengthened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating, supply in January is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to go short after stabilization [74][75]. - **Corn**: The supply is tight, and the price oscillates at a high level. Northeast China has a strong reluctance to sell, and downstream demand for restocking exists. Policy auctions are ongoing. It is recommended to pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and policy implementation [76][78]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillates weakly, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Brazilian and Indian production situations affect the market, and domestic sales are affected by the Spring Festival [79][80]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price oscillates at a low level, and the domestic cotton price stops falling and stabilizes. The US cotton supply and demand situation and domestic inventory and sales affect the market [81][83]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are stable to rising, and the market digestion speed is acceptable. Supply is in an oversupply situation, and demand is supported by the Spring Festival. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [84][85]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of various oils and fats oscillate. Palm oil is affected by inventory pressure, soybean oil is affected by the US - Iran relationship and supply, and rapeseed oil is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to pay attention to price trends [86][88]. - **Jujubes**: The futures price rebounds, but the supply - demand situation is still oversupplied. It is recommended to short on rallies and test the support at 9000 yuan/ton [89][90]. - **Apples**: The futures price is strong, driven by market sentiment. Short - term factors support the price, but long - term consumption may be affected. It is recommended to use long positions with put - option protection [91]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The price rebound is under pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and have limited downward space in the medium term [92][93]. - **PTA**: The price rebound is under pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and have a low - long strategy in the medium term [94]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is expected to follow raw materials and oscillate. It is recommended to do the same as PTA on a single - side strategy and shrink the processing fee on a high level [95]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply and demand are both decreasing in January. It is expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to do the same as PTA on a single - side strategy and expect the processing fee to oscillate within a certain range [96][97]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is under pressure. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4000 yuan for EG2605, do reverse arbitrage for EG5 - 9, and sell out - of - the - money call options [98]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is under pressure due to high inventory. Demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 and shrink the EB - BZ spread [99]. - **Styrene**: The price is short - term strong but has limited upward space. Supply is tight in the short term, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation during the Spring Festival. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for EB03 and shrink the processing fee [100][101]. - **LLDPE**: Upstream prices have risen, and hedging transactions are booming. Supply is expected to increase, demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and some long positions are recommended to be closed [3][102][103]. - **PP**: The price is strong due to increased maintenance. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory pressure has eased. It is recommended to hold PDH profit - expanding positions [103][105]. - **Methanol**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [105]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [106][107]. - **PVC**: The price is affected by export policies. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for short - selling positions [108][109]. - **Urea**: The price center has shifted upwards. Supply is high, but agricultural demand in the Su - Wan region has increased. It is expected to be strong in the short term [110][111]. - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [113][114]. - **Glass**: The price is strong. Supply is decreasing, and demand has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [114][115]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price oscillates within a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [116][118]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term. Cost is rising, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and do arbitrage between BR2603 and NR2603 [119][120][121].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the accelerating changes in the global landscape, emphasizing China's shift from passive response to actively shaping international order through various global initiatives [1] Group 1: Global Governance Challenges - The current global governance system is ineffective in addressing major issues such as climate financing, food security, debt relief, health crises, and refugee challenges [1] - Developing countries face significant social, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities [1] Group 2: China's Role in Global Order - China is transitioning to a proactive role in international relations, proposing four major global initiatives to tackle global challenges [1] - The country is committed to institutional openness, aligning with high international standards to create multi-level institutional platforms [1] Group 3: Economic Contributions - China aims to counteract "de-globalization" through rule certainty and offers non-dependent development options for developing countries [1] - The contribution of China to global economic growth remains around 30%, positioning it as a source of certainty in a turbulent world [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the pricing logic of non-ferrous metals, emphasizing the rise of strategic resource populism as a key factor influencing market pricing, particularly after the implementation of equal tariffs in the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Non-Ferrous Metals Market Analysis - The traditional pricing framework for non-ferrous metals has been driven by global macro liquidity, economic expectations, and the US dollar index, but recent years have shown a divergence between metal prices and global economic indicators [4][6]. - The current economic environment is characterized by low global PMI levels, yet non-ferrous metal prices have outperformed expectations, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by monetary attributes and strategic reserve demands [4][7]. Trading Framework and Historical Performance - The core trading framework focuses on the economic cycle, particularly inventory cycles, with liquidity as an important extension. However, this framework has faced challenges in the non-ferrous metals sector due to unique supply and demand dynamics [6][7]. - Historical trading experiences highlight the importance of adhering to a core framework while recognizing the evolving market conditions, leading to successful investments in precious metals and strategic small metals [9][10]. Sector-Specific Insights - Precious Metals (Gold, Silver): The article notes a strong performance in gold and silver due to anticipated changes in US monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, with significant gains observed over the past three years [9][10]. - Strategic Small Metals (Antimony, Tungsten, Rare Earths): The author emphasizes early positioning in strategic small metals, benefiting from export controls and geopolitical shifts, resulting in substantial price increases [11][12]. - Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum): Despite a generally positive long-term outlook, concerns remain regarding the sustainability of demand due to ongoing issues in the real estate sector and uncertainties in US economic growth [13][14]. 2026 Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The market for non-ferrous metals is expected to remain active, but the author advocates for a cautious approach, focusing on identifying clear entry points rather than participating in the current market excitement [16][17]. - Industrial metals are viewed with caution due to unresolved concerns about the real estate market and the sustainability of AI-driven capital expenditures, with a recommendation to monitor these sectors closely [17][18]. - For strategic small metals, the long-term outlook remains positive, but current high prices necessitate waiting for favorable entry points [20][21]. - Precious metals continue to show long-term benefits, but short-term caution is advised due to market volatility and the need for clear buying signals [21][22]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while the non-ferrous metals market is currently vibrant, the focus should remain on waiting for definitive buying opportunities rather than engaging in all market trends, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic decision-making in investment [22][24].

2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 16 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.28%报 111.350 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 107.850 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 105.625 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.330 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 13 日以固定利率、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides detailed insights into the supply, demand, inventory, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding trading strategies based on the market conditions. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: Market sentiment is strong, and tin prices continue to show a strong performance. Short - term prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in futures operations and hold the previously recommended call options [2]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream price has increased, and hedging transactions are booming. It is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The transaction of coking coal in Shanxi has improved, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuate with futures. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke before the Spring Festival [3]. - **Meal Products**: The USDA report data is bearish, and beans are under pressure. The domestic soybean and meal inventory remains high, and the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [4]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, A - share major indices rose first and then fell. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined with the indices, and the basis of the main contracts continued to rise [5][6]. - **News**: The Ministry of Commerce proposed to continue imposing anti - dumping duties on imported solar - grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. Overseas, the US prosecutor's office launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and the US December CPI was in line with expectations [6][7]. - **Funding**: On January 13, the A - share market trading volume reached a new high, and the central bank conducted a net injection of 3424 billion yuan through reverse repurchase [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH with a relatively weak previous increase. For small - and - medium - cap indices, use bull spreads and pay attention to risk prevention [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher, and long - term bonds performed better. The yield of major interest - rate bonds fluctuated [8]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a 3586 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on January 13, with a net injection of 3424 billion yuan. However, the money market tightened, and attention should be paid to the central bank's subsequent actions [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The bond market is in a volatile market in the short term, lacking a trend. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for unilateral strategies and tend to steepen the yield curve in the medium - term [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US December CPI was in line with expectations, and the fiscal deficit in December 2025 reached a record high. The CME adjusted the margin setting for precious metal contracts. The prices of precious metals showed a differentiated trend, with silver leading the rise [10][11][12]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the medium - long term. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise steadily in the medium - long term. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold above the 20 - day moving average, hold long positions in silver above 75 US dollars, and buy platinum and palladium on dips near the 20 - day moving average [12][13]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Shipping Index**: As of January 12, the SCFIS European line index rose, and the SCFI composite index fell slightly. The spot price of shipping is gradually entering a downward cycle [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The futures price of the main contract declined, and the spot price will continue to put downward pressure on the futures [15]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term [15]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level, and the downstream operating rate is weak. The medium - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term is affected by inventory and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a wide - range shock. The supply is rigid, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on rallies in the medium term [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: The price is at a high level and fluctuating widely. The market is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to build long positions [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost drives the price up, but the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 can be considered [26][28]. - **Zinc**: The price center has moved up, and the spot transaction is average. The supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is inhibited. It is recommended to focus on the support at 23,800 and go long on dips in the long term [30][33]. - **Tin**: The price continues to be strong. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is affected by market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [33][37]. - **Nickel**: The news reaction is gradually digested, and the price is mainly fluctuating. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies [37][40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is fluctuating narrowly. The cost and demand are in a game. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with a reference range of 13,400 - 14,200 [40][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment is strong, and the price continues to rise. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to wait and see [44][46]. - **Polysilicon**: The long positions have reduced their positions, and the price has further declined. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the subsequent production reduction and demand recovery [47][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is mainly fluctuating. The supply and demand are both weak in January. It is recommended to pay attention to the production reduction and the change in polysilicon production [50][51]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation stage, and the steel price is in a volatile pattern. It is expected to fluctuate in January, with a reference range of 3050 - 3250 for rebar and 3200 - 3350 for hot - rolled coils [52][53][54]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is facing the off - season, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, with a reference range of 770 - 830. It is recommended to operate within the range [55][56]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal in Shanxi has risen more than it has fallen, and the transaction has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke before the Spring Festival [57][61]. - **Coke**: After the fourth - round price cut at the beginning of the year, the price has stabilized. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [62][67]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost provides support, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. It is recommended to try going long on dips, with a bottom support of around 5500 [68][69]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The external price of manganese ore has generally risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to try going long on dips, with a bottom support of around 5800 [70][72]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The USDA report data is bearish, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory remains high. The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [73][75]. - **Hogs**: After the holiday, the demand has declined. It is expected to be in a volatile and bearish pattern in January [76][77]. - **Corn**: The supply is tight, and the downstream has rigid demand for stocking. The price is expected to be supported, but the increase is limited by policy. It is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' selling mentality and policy implementation [78][80]. - **Sugar**: The Unica production data is bullish, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [81]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report is slightly bullish, and the domestic cotton price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term price may enter an adjustment period [84][85]. - **Eggs**: The terminal inventory has increased, and the market trading has slowed down. The futures price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [88]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil has risen first and then fallen, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil are affected by various factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of different oils [89][91][92]. - **Red Dates**: The spot price is supported, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range. It is recommended to short on rallies [94]. - **Apples**: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures price is rising. The short - term price is supported by the low good - fruit rate and low inventory, but the long - term price is affected by consumption. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options [95][96]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase under high valuation, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is expected to be low - bought in the medium term [97][98]. - **PTA**: There is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the pre - holiday driving force is limited. It is recommended to follow the raw material price fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5300 in the short term and be low - bought in the medium term [99][100]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material price fluctuations. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and shrink the processing fee on rallies [101]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand will both decrease in January. The absolute price and processing fee will follow the cost fluctuations. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and the processing fee of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [102][103]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure in January. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4000 for EG2605, conduct reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 on rallies, and sell out - of - the - money call options on EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies [105]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has slightly improved, but the price is still under pressure due to high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and shrink the EB - BZ spread on rallies [106]. - **Styrene**: It is short - term strong, but the upward space is limited under high valuation and weak expectation. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of EB03 and shrink the processing fee on rallies [107][108]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream price has increased, and hedging transactions are booming. It is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [109][110]. - **PP**: The number of maintenance has increased, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to hold the position with an expanding PDH profit [110]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price is fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see [110][111]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the spot transaction is light. The price is expected to be stable and weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream procurement volume and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [111][112]. - **PVC**: The export factor amplifies the price fluctuation, and the short - term trading focus is not on supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions in the short term [113][114]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the downstream is cautious about high - priced purchases. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to the production resumption rhythm and downstream demand [116][117]. - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory digestion [118][120]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair and restocking maintain the price strength. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory digestion and supply - demand balance [118][121]. - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw material price is high, and the rubber price is fluctuating strongly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the raw material output in Thailand [121][123]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is firm, but the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. The BR2603 is expected to run in the range of 11,800 - 12,500. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - level disturbances [124][126].

文 | 贾瑞斌 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 2025年，"东西半球划洋而治"的声音逐渐浮现。美国特朗普政府在其最新战略报告中，系统性地提出以"西半球优先"为核心的战 略。尽管东半球霸主尚未形成高度认同，但在不同战略目标驱动下，东西大国可能在阶段性形成某种影响力让渡的共识。 过去几年，"逆全球化"频频被提及，但世界不太可能彻底走向碎片化。东西两大经济体均需要依托自身的区域构建分工与合作体系， 因此"半球化"或许更能概括未来数年的发展趋势。 然而，要将"全球化"推向"半球化"，首要前提是各自构建一套相对完整、涵盖资源、生产与消费的区域经济合作体系。 以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者贾瑞斌 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 相反，对于农产品、原油、甲醇等液体化工品，因储存成本高、易损耗，则不适合作为长期战略储备的优先目标。 下面是相关品种的单吨货值及年度涨跌情况，供投资者参考。 | 棉花 | 15930 | 8.75% | | --- | --- | --- | | 橡胶 | 15700 - - V | 日 -3.68 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals sector is experiencing significant activity, with several stocks showing notable gains, including Xiaocheng Technology up by 10.44% and Hunan Silver reaching the daily limit [1][2] - The core logic driving the market's interest in precious metals is their dual value proposition, serving as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties and benefiting from industrial demand in sectors like renewable energy and electronics [2][3] Group 2 - Gold and silver futures prices have reached historical highs, with gold touching $4630.19 per ounce and silver exceeding $86 per ounce, reflecting strong investment momentum and ongoing central bank purchases [3] - Citigroup has raised its short-term outlook for precious metals, increasing the gold price target from $4200 to $5000 per ounce and silver from $62 to $100 per ounce, citing strong investment momentum and favorable conditions [3] - The precious metals mining sector is expected to benefit directly from rising prices, with companies possessing quality mineral reserves likely to see increased revenues and profit margins [5] - The precious metals processing industry is experiencing growth due to rising demand for high-quality products in sectors such as electric vehicles and biomedicine, with advanced processing companies poised to capture more market share [6]

金瑞期货指出，从宏观和基本面来看，美联储货币政策宽松、利率回落的趋势并未发生改变，中长期包 括主权国家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，白银的供需矛盾也持续 存在，贵金属价格的长期核心驱动因素仍保持稳健。 西南期货认为，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"的大趋势，利好黄金的配置 价值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。但近期贵金属大幅上涨，投机情绪显 著升温。预计市场波动将显著放大，多单可离场后暂且观望。 期货频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 当地时间1月8日，芝商所也发出通知称，将于1月9日盘后全面上调黄金、白银、铂金、钯金期货品种的 履约保证金，同时大部分天然气合约的保证金将被下调。 另外，芝商所还分别在2025年12月29日、12月31日两次上调黄金、白银等期货合约的保证金。 在芝商所上调保证金的背后，金银等贵金属当前正处于高波动状态。以金价为例，受美联储降息预期升 温、地缘政治局势错综复杂、全球去美元化趋势走强等因素影响，截至1月12日，COMEX黄金盘中突 破4600美元/盎司关口，续创历史新高。 当地时间1月 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced high volatility, with spot gold trading around $4,590 and silver retreating to below $85 on January 13, following news of Powell potentially facing criminal investigation, which drove prices to historical highs [1][2] - Spot gold briefly surpassed $4,600, closing up 1.97% at $4,597.94 per ounce, while silver reached a record high of $86 before closing up 6.51% at $85.16 per ounce [1] - Multiple exchanges globally announced enhanced risk control measures due to significant price fluctuations in precious metals, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange changing margin requirements for gold and silver contracts to a percentage of nominal value [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice regarding the adjustment of the gold ETF's subscription and redemption processes, pausing these activities for one day on January 16, 2026, to ensure smooth operations [3] - Analysts from various futures companies noted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Americas, along with concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, are driving precious metal prices upward [4][5] - The market is currently characterized by high volatility, with gold maintaining a strong position while silver may face increased risks in the short term [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum is still to be strengthened, with the current national debt yield at a relatively low level. The national debt futures are expected to face certain pressure, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6][7]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to the low - level domestic asset valuations and China's economic resilience, along with the warming market sentiment and inflow of incremental funds, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and investors can consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10]. - Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, and central bank gold - buying supports its price. But due to the significant recent rise in precious metals and the heating up of speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and investors are advised to exit long positions and wait and see [11][12]. - For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil, in the medium - term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand is weak, but the supply pressure is relieved. The price may continue the weak shock. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is expected to strengthen, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the futures have rebounded strongly. The cost support for coke is strengthening, and the demand is increasing. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage positions carefully [17][18]. - The overall over - supply pressure of ferroalloys continues. But considering the limited downward space of costs and the reduction of short - term supply, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20]. - The INE crude oil has risen significantly. With geopolitical factors and changes in supply - demand data, the crude oil price is expected to continue rising. Investors can focus on the opportunity of going long on the main crude oil contract [21][22][23]. - The fuel oil price is affected by multiple factors. With the increase in crude oil prices, it is expected to strengthen. Investors can focus on the opportunity of going long on the main fuel oil contract [25][26]. - The demand in different segments of polyolefin products is uneven, showing a more prominent differentiation pattern. Investors can focus on the opportunity of going long [27][28]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be mainly in a strong shock, and investors should pay attention to factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand [29][30]. - The natural rubber market is expected to show a wide - range shock, with supply, demand, and inventory factors interacting [31][32]. - The PVC market may be in a strong shock in the short - term due to policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium - term. However, the uncertainty of the demand side should be vigilant [33][36]. - The urea price is expected to remain in a strong shock in the short - term, driven by export demand and cost support [37][38]. - The PX market may be in a shock adjustment in the short - term, with stable spreads and profits, and support from rising crude oil prices. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations [39][40]. - The PTA market may be in a shock operation in the short - term. The processing fee has rebounded, and the supply - demand situation has changed little. The long - term supply - demand expectation is good, and investors can consider cautious operation on pullbacks [41]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to have an increase in supply and pressure on port inventory. It may fluctuate more due to macro - sentiment, and investors are advised to wait and see carefully [42][43]. - The short - fiber market may follow the raw material price in shock operation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal is digesting raw material inventory. The low inventory may provide bottom support [44]. - The bottle - chip market may follow the cost side in shock operation. There is an expected reduction in supply around the Spring Festival, and the export growth rate is increasing. However, the raw material price is uncertain, and investors should participate cautiously on pullbacks [45][46]. - The soda ash market shows off - season characteristics, but the downward space is limited. It is advisable to operate within a range in the short - term [47]. - The glass market has limited improvement in fundamentals, and the profit is low. However, the main 05 contract corresponds to the traditional real - estate peak season, and investors should pay attention to the short - term driving force from real - estate policies [48][49]. - The caustic soda market shows significant seasonal characteristics, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors can operate within a range [50]. - The pulp market has no substantial improvement in supply - demand fundamentals, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The futures price may return to the spot price, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [51]. - The lithium carbonate market may be in a strong shock, with a pattern of strong supply and demand, and a reduction in social inventory. External geopolitical factors also support the price [52][53]. - The copper market may be in a high - level shock, with long - term supply concerns supporting the price, but high prices suppressing short - term consumption [54][55]. - The aluminum market may be in a high - level adjustment. The supply is difficult to increase significantly, but high prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating [56][58]. - The zinc market may be in a shock adjustment. The supply is tightening, but demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is increasing [59][60]. - The lead market is in a tight - balance pattern with low inventory, continuing the range - bound shock [61][62]. - The tin market is expected to be strong, with tight supply and certain resilience in demand, and a reduction in refined tin inventory [63][64]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, with high inventory. Although the cost may rise, the real consumption is not optimistic, and investors should pay attention to Indonesian policies [65]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the cost support is adjusted downward, and the demand is improving. Investors can consider long positions in the low - cost support range for soybean meal and long positions in low - level call options for soybean oil [66][67][68]. - The palm oil market may have an opportunity to go long after a pullback, with increasing export demand and expected weakening production [69][71]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider the opportunity to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil, depending on the change in import policies [72][73]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the short - and long - term, with positive factors from the USDA report, tight supply expectations, and resilient demand. Investors can go long in batches on pullbacks [74][76][77]. - The upward space of the sugar price is limited in the long - term, with increasing domestic supply and strong expected production in India [78][80][81]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the long - term, with low inventory and reduced production in the new season [82][84][85]. - The pig price is facing supply pressure in the first quarter, and investors are advised to wait and see for changes in market capital structure [86][88]. - For eggs, the supply is relatively high in January, but the supply side is improving marginally. Considering the low valuation of off - season contracts, investors can consider positive spread strategies [89][90]. - The corn and corn starch market: The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and there may be a peak of grain sales before the Spring Festival. Corn starch may follow the corn market, and investors should wait for the release of supply pressure [91][92][93]. - The log market is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern, with relatively sufficient supply, shrinking demand, and limited downward space [94][95]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36.1 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the national debt futures are expected to face pressure [5][6]. 3.2 Equity 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The number of new margin trading accounts in 2025 reached a record high. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the market sentiment is warming up. The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to move up [8][9]. 3.3 Commodities 3.3.1 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central bank gold - buying supports the price. However, due to strong speculative sentiment, the market may be volatile [11]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, they rebounded slightly. The demand is weak, but the supply pressure is relieved. The price may be in a weak shock [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, it fluctuated at a high level. The supply - demand pattern is expected to strengthen, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, they rebounded strongly. The cost support for coke is strengthening, and the demand is increasing [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. The overall over - supply pressure continues, but short - term supply may decrease [20]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper futures rose. Long - term supply concerns support the price, but high prices suppress short - term consumption [54]. - **Aluminum**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum futures rose slightly, while the alumina futures fell. The supply is difficult to increase significantly, but high prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating [56]. - **Zinc**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc futures rose. The supply is tightening, but demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is increasing [59]. - **Lead**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead futures fell slightly. The market is in a tight - balance pattern with low inventory [61]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin futures rose sharply. The supply is tight, and demand has certain resilience [63]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures fell slightly. The market is in an oversupply pattern, with high inventory [65]. 3.3.3 Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, the INE crude oil rose significantly. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand data changes may drive the price up [21]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, it fell significantly. Affected by multiple factors, it is expected to strengthen with the increase in crude oil prices [24][25]. 3.3.4 Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The market sentiment is boosted, and the demand in different segments is uneven [27]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures rose slightly. It is expected to be in a strong shock, and factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand should be noted [29]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures rose. It is expected to show a wide - range shock, with supply, demand, and inventory factors interacting [31]. - **PVC**: The futures rose. It may be in a strong shock in the short - term, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium - term [33]. - **Urea**: The futures rose slightly. It is expected to remain in a strong shock in the short - term, driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - **PX**: The futures rose. It may be in a shock adjustment in the short - term, with support from rising crude oil prices [39]. - **PTA**: The futures rose. It may be in a shock operation in the short - term, with a rebound in processing fees and little change in supply - demand [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The futures rose. The supply is expected to increase, and port inventory is under pressure [42]. - **Short - Fiber**: The futures rose slightly. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal is digesting raw material inventory [44]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The futures rose. It may follow the cost side in shock operation, with an expected reduction in supply around the Spring Festival [45]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures rose. It shows off - season characteristics, but the downward space is limited [47]. - **Glass**: The futures fell slightly. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the profit is low [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures fell. It shows significant seasonal characteristics, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit [50]. - **Pulp**: The futures fell. The supply - demand fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [51]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The futures rose slightly. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the cost support is adjusted downward, and the demand is improving [66]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil rose. It may have an opportunity to go long after a pullback, with increasing export demand and expected weakening production [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed fell. Investors can consider the opportunity to widen the spread depending on the change in import policies [72]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton futures recovered after reaching a low point. The price is expected to be strong in the short - and long - term, with positive factors from the USDA report [74]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures were in a weak shock. The upward space is limited in the long - term, with increasing domestic supply and strong expected production in India [78]. - **Apple**: The domestic apple futures fluctuated. The price is expected to be strong in the long - term, with low inventory and reduced production in the new season [82]. - **Pig**: The national average pig price rose slightly. The supply is under pressure in the first quarter, and investors are advised to wait and see [86]. - **Egg**: The egg price rose. The supply is relatively high in January, but the supply side is improving marginally. Positive spread strategies can be considered [89]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures rose. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and there may be a peak of grain sales before the Spring Festival [91]. - **Log**: The futures fell slightly. It is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern, with relatively sufficient supply, shrinking demand, and limited downward space [94].