Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Xu Liang [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a volatile trend. Due to concerns about increased inventory and slower exports, there is short - term pressure to weaken and seek support at 4,000 ringgit. After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report next week, if it can effectively stand above 4,000 ringgit, an upward trend may follow. A near - term weak and long - term strong view is maintained, and the level of 4,000 ringgit should be closely monitored [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward - adjusted trend after opening higher. Affected by the decline of Malaysian palm oil, there is pressure to continue falling. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stand above 8,500 yuan. As Malaysian palm oil stabilizes at around 4,000 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may also stabilize and rise. A near - term weak and long - term strong view is maintained, and changes in Malaysian palm oil fundamentals and whether Dalian palm oil can stand above 8,500 yuan should be closely monitored [3]. Soybean Oil - Dalian soybean oil futures are in a narrow - range volatile trend. CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and BMD palm oil are all in a volatile adjustment state, affecting the domestic oil market. Domestically, soybean oil supply is sufficient in most areas, but some areas have soybean meal overstock, leading to a decrease in the overall factory operating rate. Recently, due to low prices, some traders replenished stocks, and yesterday's trading volume increased. There are both bullish and bearish factors. The January contract is oscillating below the daily mid - track of 8,200 yuan. If CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and BMD palm oil continue to fall, Dalian soybean oil will be dragged down; otherwise, there is a possibility of an upward trend after the oscillation [4]. Oilseeds (Soybean Meal) - Dalian soybean meal 01 contract declined due to the sharp drop in US soybeans yesterday and weak spot prices. However, the Brazilian premium is continuously strengthening, and the crushing profit has not significantly improved under the weak oil - meal background. The main contract of Dalian soybean meal may still test the resistance at 3,080 - 3,100 yuan in the short term. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton following the futures price. The near - month basis is weakly stable, with light overall trading volume. Feed mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and traders operate on a rolling basis. If China successfully purchases 12 million tons of US soybeans, the supply will be loose in the first quarter of next year, and the basis will be under continuous pressure with limited upward space. In the short term, the spot price will mainly fluctuate within the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan [17]. Group 4: Price and Spread Information Oil Spreads | Spread | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | - 66 | 40 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 90 | 10 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 24 | - 50 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 544 | - 92 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 792 | - 46 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 790 | - 56 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 182 | - 6 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 88 | 20 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 270 | - 14 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.6688 | 0.78% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.832 | 0.6% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.6932 | 0.39% | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 391 | 46 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 24 | 31 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 415 | - 77 | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.7521 | 1.19% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.7968 | 0.76% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.6787 | 0.52% | [5] Palm Oil Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8,660 | - 0.82% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8,730 | - 0.77% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8,640 | - 0.78% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | ringgit/ton | 4,110 | - 0.94% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | 8,520 | - 50 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | yuan/ton | - 46 | 50 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 416.649 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | 46.08 | 5.95 | [8] Soybean Oil Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8,184 | - 0.33% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7,960 | - 0.6% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7,878 | - 0.34% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | cents/pound | 49.28 | - 0.87% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8,290 | 0 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 212 | 52 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 45.172 | - 7.6468 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 130 | - 40 | [14] Oilseed Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3,058 | - 10 | - 0.33% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2,810 | - 17 | - 0.6% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2,930 | - 10 | - 0.34% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,539 | - 10 | - 0.39% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,416 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,487 | 0 | 0% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,108 | - 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1226 | - 0.0078 | - 0.11% | [17] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 241 | - 8 | RM01 - 05 | 133 | 1 | | M05 - 09 | - 113 | 1 | RM05 - 09 | - 71 | 2 | | M09 - 01 | - 128 | 7 | RM09 - 01 | - 62 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3,040 | - 20 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 25 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2,580 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 31 | - 12 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 460 | 0 | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 519 | - 17 | [18][20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - For corn, in the short - term, it is advised to adopt a volatile mindset. The US corn harvest is advancing, increasing supply pressure, but the rise of US soybeans and wheat provides external support. In the domestic market, there is a large supply, but rigid demand exists, and the expansion of China Grain Reserves Corporation's procurement has boosted the enthusiasm of traders. The corn futures price generally fluctuated and closed higher this week [10]. - For corn starch, in the short - term, it is also recommended to take a volatile approach. The supply of raw corn is abundant, and the industry's operating rate is rising, increasing supply - side pressure. Downstream orders and pick - ups have slowed slightly, and inventory has increased slightly. Starch futures also fluctuated and closed higher in sync with the corn market this week [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn**: - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - term volatile mindset [9]. - **Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed higher in a low - level oscillation, with a closing price of 2149 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week [10]. - **Outlook**: By November 2, the US corn harvest was 83% complete. As the US corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will increase, but the rise of US soybeans and wheat provides support. In the domestic market, the main producing areas are in the stage of releasing sales pressure, with sufficient supply. Feed and deep - processing rigid demand exists, and the expansion of procurement by China Grain Reserves Corporation has boosted traders' enthusiasm [10]. - **Corn Starch**: - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - term volatile mindset [13]. - **Review**: The main 2601 contract of Dalian corn starch futures oscillated narrowly, with a closing price of 2462 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last week [14]. - **Outlook**: With the increase in the listing volume of new - season corn, the supply of raw corn is abundant. The processing profit of enterprises has recovered, the industry's operating rate has continued to rise, and supply - side pressure has increased. Downstream orders and pick - ups have slowed slightly, and inventory has increased slightly. As of November 5, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 113.8 tons, up 1.00 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.89%, a monthly increase of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 33.26% [14]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: - Corn futures' January contract closed higher in a low - level oscillation, with a total position of 977019 lots, an increase of 45868 lots from last week [20]. - Corn starch futures' January contract closed higher in an oscillation, with a total position of 226082 lots, an increase of 14599 lots from last week [20]. - **Top Twenty Net Position Changes**: - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 118210, compared with - 79110 last week, with an increase in net short positions [26]. - The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 58773, compared with - 54866 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions [26]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 66351 lots [32]. - The registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 12453 lots [32]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - As of November 6, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2236.47 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active January contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 87 yuan/ton [37]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 138 yuan/ton [42]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was - 28 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level in the same period [48]. - The 1 - 3 spread of starch was - 10 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48]. - **Futures Spread Changes**: - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 313 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 524 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week [57]. - **Substitute Spread Changes**: - As of November 6, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2487.67 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2236.47 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 251.2 yuan/ton [62]. - In the 45th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 322 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton from last week [62]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Corn - Supply Side**: - **Inventory in North and South Ports**: As of October 31, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 42.5 tons, an increase of 15.50 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 31.7 tons, a decrease of 2.00 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 102.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.6 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports that week was 71.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.20 tons [52]. - **Domestic Corn Sales Progress**: As of November 6, 2025, the total sales progress of domestic corn was 22%, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The sales progress in Northeast China was 18%, a year - on - year increase of 3%; in North China was 20%, a year - on - year increase of 1%; in Northwest China was 42%, a year - on - year increase of 4% [64]. - **Monthly Import Arrivals**: In September 2025, China's total corn imports were 56562.26 tons, a decrease of 256532.84 tons from the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 81.93%, and a month - on - month increase of 20404.55 tons from the previous month [68]. - **Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory Days**: As of November 6, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.88 days, an increase of 0.78 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.24%, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.89% [72]. - **Corn - Demand Side**: - **Pig and Breeding Sow Inventory Changes**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads year - on - year, a growth of 2.3%, and an increase of 12.33 million heads quarter - on - quarter, a growth of 2.9%. Among them, the breeding sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 0.28 million heads year - on - year, a decrease of 0.7%, and a decrease of 0.09 million heads quarter - on - quarter, a slight decrease of 0.2% [76]. - **Breeding Profit Changes**: As of October 31, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was - 89.33 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 179.72 yuan/head [80]. - **Starch and Alcohol Enterprises' Profit Changes**: As of November 6, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 114 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 292 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 429 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 233 yuan/ton [84]. - **Corn Starch - Supply Side**: - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 5, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn deep - processing enterprises was 279.5 tons, a decrease of 1.13% from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 16.47% [88]. - **Starch Enterprises' Operating Rate and Inventory**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 62.65 tons, an increase of 2.93 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 32.47 tons, an increase of 2.02 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 62.77%, an increase of 3.9% from last week. As of November 5, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 113.8 tons, an increase of 1.00 tons from last week, a weekly increase of 0.89%, a monthly increase of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 33.26% [92]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 7, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn, which closed higher in an oscillation, was 8.51%, a decrease of 0.64% from last week's 9.15%. This week, the implied volatility oscillated and declined, being at a relatively low level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For each specific energy and chemical product, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Volatile [1] - Fuel oil: Volatile [1] - Asphalt: Volatile [3] - Polyester: Volatile [4] - Rubber: Volatile [6] - Methanol: Volatile [6] - Polyolefin: Volatile [8] - Polyvinyl chloride: Volatile and weakening [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Due to increased refinery production, Russia's oil exports from its western ports in November are expected to slightly decrease but remain close to recent historical highs. The official selling price premiums of some Saudi crude oil grades have been adjusted. Currently, oil prices lack a clear driving force and will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of fuel oil showed mixed trends. The overall supply of fuel oil in Singapore in November is expected to remain sufficient. The market structures of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils may continue to reverse, and the LU - FU spread still has some room to rebound [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract declined. The northern market demand is shrinking due to temperature, while the southern market has some project rush - work demands but may first consume low - priced social inventory resources. The supply pressure in November has eased, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3]. - **Polyester**: Affected by market news, PX&TA futures prices rebounded significantly, and the processing margin on the disk narrowed. The downstream polyester maintains a high operating rate, and further attention should be paid to the increase in maintenance due to low processing fees. Ethylene glycol has high production, low inventory, and a large number of upcoming production capacities, with limited downstream demand growth and a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber main contracts rose. Due to increased rainfall in the producing areas, raw material prices are unstable. The demand for all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires, and rubber prices will fluctuate [6]. - **Methanol**: Due to the shutdown of major methanol plants in Inner Mongolia and the news of gas restrictions on Iranian plants, the market expects a decrease in subsequent supply, leading to a rebound in methanol prices. However, MTO profit has started to weaken, and traditional downstream support is relatively limited, so methanol prices will tend to fluctuate widely at the bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin is gradually moving towards a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high pressure on inventory transfer to downstream. The weak performance of short - term crude oil prices weakens the cost support for polyolefin, but the current spread is at a low level in the past five years, so polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The PVC market price has been adjusted downward. Supply remains high, and demand will decline as real - estate construction slows down. The supply - demand pressure is high, and the price is expected to show a weakening and fluctuating trend [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Perspectives - **Crude oil**: WTI December contract closed down $0.17 to $59.43 per barrel, a decline of 0.29%; Brent January contract closed down $0.14 to $63.38 per barrel, a decline of 0.22%; SC2512 closed at 454.4 yuan/barrel, down 6.1 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.32%. Russia's November western port oil exports are expected to be about 2.3 million barrels per day, slightly lower than October's 2.4 million barrels per day. Some Saudi crude oil grade premiums have been reduced by $0.3 per barrel [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract FU2601 of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.04% to 2,728 yuan/ton; the main contract LU2601 of low - sulfur fuel oil fell 0.24% to 3,269 yuan/ton. As of the week of November 5, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased by 299,000 barrels (1.21%) week - on - week, while Fujairah's fuel oil inventory increased by 2.166 million barrels (33.35%) week - on - week [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2601 fell 2.05% to 3,109 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers increased by 2.9% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 4.7% compared with before the holiday and 2.5% year - on - year [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,688 yuan/ton, up 1.91%; EG2601 closed at 3,924 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. As of November 6, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 72.44% (down 3.76% from the previous period), and the PTA load was adjusted to 76.4%. The domestic polyester load was around 91.5% [4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2601 of Shanghai rubber rose 195 yuan/ton to 15,045 yuan/ton, and the main contract NR rose 195 yuan/ton to 12,130 yuan/ton. The weekly operating load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.45%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 4.37 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.54%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week and 5.35 percentage points from the same period last year [6]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,095 yuan/ton. Due to plant failures and gas restrictions, the market expects a decrease in supply, but MTO profit has weakened, and traditional downstream support is limited [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,400 - 6,600 yuan/ton. The profit margins of various production methods of polyolefin were negative. The prices of PE films decreased compared with last week [8]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The prices in East, North, and South China PVC markets were adjusted downward. Supply remains high, and demand will decline as real - estate construction slows down [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis price data for multiple energy and chemical products on November 6 and 5, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - Russia's November oil exports from western ports are expected to slightly decrease due to increased refinery production but remain close to historical highs [14]. - ConocoPhillips raised its full - year production forecast after reporting higher - than - expected third - quarter earnings. The third - quarter production reached 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase of 48,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day year - on - year. The company expects fourth - quarter production to be between 2.3 million and 2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and raised its 2025 production forecast to 2.375 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while lowering its 2025 operating cost forecast from $10.9 billion to $10.6 billion [14]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and para - xylene [16][17][18][22][24][26][29][30][32]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, para - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [33][38][39][42][43][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for multiple products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [64][67][69][75]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and market news for each product. It assesses the market conditions of each commodity and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - environment [2]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Aromatics and Related Products - **PX**: Supported by overseas aromatics blending demand, it shows a relatively strong short - term trend. The domestic production device's operating rate has reached a new high, but sanctions on some companies may affect short - process device operations. It is in a high - level oscillating market [13]. - **PTA**: The market focuses on supply reduction due to industry consolidation. The polyester load is high, and the short - term operating rate has decreased, alleviating the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November. However, the long - term inventory accumulation pattern is clear. PTA processing fees above 300 should be sold short [14]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure is large, and port inventory accumulation will accelerate. Although the polyester load is high, it cannot change the current oversupply situation. The price needs to test the cost line of coal - based devices [15]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in an oscillating state. Domestic supply is shrinking, while foreign supply is in the peak season. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating, making it difficult for prices to break through unilaterally [16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Spot trading has improved, and it has entered an oscillating phase. In the short - term, the decline speed has slowed down due to inventory reduction and improved spot trading. In the medium - term, the weak operation of butadiene drives the downward shift of the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber [21]. Asphalt - It is in a weak operation. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises has decreased, and the shipment volume has also declined. The market is affected by factors such as supply reduction in the north and decreased demand in the north as the construction season ends [25]. Polyolefins - **LLDPE**: The planned - out maintenance has increased. Although the raw material price has decreased, the downstream demand provides support, and the short - term decline driving force is not strong. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high production capacity and weakening demand [36]. - **PP**: It has a weak trend. Although there has been a short - term rebound due to factors such as changes in oil prices and supply reduction, in the long - term, the downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally resolve, and the medium - term market may be in a weak - oscillating pattern [40]. Other Chemical Products - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by cost, but there is still pressure in the trend. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand side is affected by factors such as the possible reduction in alumina production. Attention should be paid to supply changes under the background of low chlorine profit [44]. - **Pulp**: It is in an oscillating state. Although the futures market provides some support, high domestic inventory and weak downstream demand limit the price rebound space [49]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market price has little change, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid - need replenishment [56]. - **Methanol**: It is in a short - term oscillating operation. Supply is high, and demand from the MTO industry is under pressure. The macro - driving force has weakened, and the market is weak. Attention should be paid to whether the return of port goods to the mainland can support prices [59]. - **Urea**: It is expected to operate strongly in the short - term. The spot market has active transactions, and new export quotas have been obtained, providing policy support [63]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillating state. The contradiction is not significant, and pure benzene has low absolute valuation. Although the chemical fundamentals are weak, the blending oil price difference has opened up, and attention should be paid to the incremental demand [68]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The comprehensive supply has slightly increased, and downstream demand remains stable. It is expected to oscillate steadily in the short - term [71]. - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high [73]. - **Propylene**: Upstream devices are in a loss state, and attention should be paid to production reduction operations [74]. - **PVC**: It still has pressure in the trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and export growth may slow down. However, supply reduction in the maintenance season next year can be expected [82]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil fell at night and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil followed the decline of crude oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market slightly decreased [85]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is in an oscillating market. The freight index shows different trends in European and US - West routes [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report expects PX, PTA, and PR to have a moderately strong and volatile trend [2]. Core Viewpoints - The prices of PX, PTA, and PR are expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. The PX market is in a tight - balance situation, with stable supply and limited demand - side drive. The PTA market is affected by cost and supply - side factors, and the supply pressure cannot be eliminated by short - term maintenance. The PR market follows cost trends, with sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Prices**: On November 6, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.29% and 0.22% respectively. The spot price of naphtha decreased by 0.30%, while the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) increased by 0.65% [1]. - **PTA Prices**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price increased by 1.91%, and the spot price of domestic PTA increased by 0.75%. The CCFEI price indices of PTA both increased [1]. - **PX Prices**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price increased by 2.56%, and the spot price of domestic PX remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads increased by 4.93% and 4.28% respectively [1]. - **PR Prices**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price increased by 1.31%, and the market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East and South China markets increased by 0.70% and 0.35% respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream products remained unchanged, except for the polyester bottle - chip and polyester slice price indices, which increased, and the polyester short - fiber price index decreased by 0.32% [2]. Operating Conditions - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain increased by 1.82%. The load rates of PTA factories decreased by 0.42%, while those of polyester factories and bottle - chip factories increased by 0.14% and 0.92% respectively. The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [1]. - **Sales Rates**: The sales rates of polyester filament, polyester short - fiber, and polyester slice increased by 17.41%, 31.62%, and 96.76% respectively [1]. Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device in South China is under maintenance, and the restart date is undetermined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device in Southwest China is planned to be maintained this weekend and may be shut down for 45 days [2]. Market Analysis - **PX**: The international crude oil market is volatile, and the domestic PX devices operate stably. Although some PX factories' reforming devices are under maintenance, the market supply remains stable. The PX benefit is expected to be volatile and stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance in the fourth quarter [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA price is pushed up by the cost of PX. Although there are many device maintenance plans, the supply is still sufficient. The domestic demand market is gradually weakening, but the foreign trade orders are increasing, and the short - term downstream demand is acceptable [2]. - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is moderately strong and volatile. The supply is sufficient, and the downstream procurement is cautious [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The main port of MEG in East China continued to accumulate inventory this week. The EG main contract closed at 3,924 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,978 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.10% from the previous trading day. The spot basis of EG in East China was 74 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and the domestic supply will be abundant in the future. Overseas, there are still many losses in ethylene glycol supply, and more than two sets of Saudi devices are still in shutdown or low-load operation, with little change in import expectations. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - The strategy includes cautious short selling hedging on a unilateral basis. There is a large pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter under high supply, with many production plans, and port inventories are expected to gradually recover. For the inter - term strategy, it is recommended to reverse the spread between EG2601 and EG2605 [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,924 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,978 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.10% from the previous trading day. The spot basis of EG in East China was 74 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 57 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was - 860 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. International Spread No relevant information provided. Downstream Production, Sales and Operation - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was 562,000 tons, up 39,000 tons month - on - month. According to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was 564,000 tons, up 65,000 tons month - on - month. As of November 6, the total inventory of MEG in the main port area of East China was 564,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from Monday. The planned arrivals at the main port of East China this week are relatively large, and inventory accumulation is expected again [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Demand-side support is insufficient, supply is abundant, and cost-side support is limited, which are the factors driving the continuous weak downward trend of propylene. The peak of device maintenance has passed, and some PDH devices have stopped production, but the supply remains abundant. The downstream demand is mainly rigid, and the overall downstream start-up rate has declined. The international oil price and external propane prices are weak, weakening the cost support for propylene [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [6][8][10] II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It covers figures on the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][17][18] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [30][32] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][46] V. Propylene Inventory - The report shows figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [63]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve with stable spot prices, southwest production cuts, and a decrease in social inventory. The industrial silicon valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the market may rise. For trading, short - term interval operations are recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [1][2] - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but there is a large inventory pressure, and downstream production may weaken. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly. Short - term interval operations are recommended, with the 12 - contract expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [4][6] Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On November 6, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,050 yuan/ton and closed at 9,065 yuan/ton, up 1.17% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 236,855 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 46,281 lots, an increase of 86 lots from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1] - As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous week [1] - The supply of petroleum coke tightened, and the demand provided effective support. SMM expected the short - term price to fluctuate strongly. The price of raw coal was good, supporting the cost of silicon coal, and there was a bullish expectation for the silicon coal price in some regions in the short term [1] - The consumption side: The reported price of silicone DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market showed a situation of rising in name but falling in fact. The mainstream transaction price was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of about 11,150 yuan/ton, an increase of about 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The DMC price of Shandong monomer enterprises was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the DMC prices of other domestic monomer enterprises also increased slightly [2] Polysilicon - On November 6, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 53,455 yuan/ton and closed at 53,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 122,244 lots (125,062 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 256,104 lots [3][4] - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 259,000 tons, a decrease of 0.77% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 27,000 tons, a decrease of 4.30% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 13.45GW, a decrease of 5.55% month - on - month [4] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.32 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece), the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.69 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece [4] - The production of polysilicon in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the production in the southwest region would be significantly reduced [4] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W [5] Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Spot prices are stable, production in the southwest is cut, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon market is affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. The rising price of thermal coal and the expected strengthening of silicon coal prices support industrial silicon. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there is policy promotion, the market may rise [2] - For trading, short - term interval operations are recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [2] Polysilicon - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon have slightly improved, but the overall inventory pressure is large, and downstream production may weaken. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, with large market fluctuations. Participants need to pay attention to risk management. Currently, the consumption side performs averagely, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [6] - For trading, short - term interval operations are recommended, with the 12 - contract expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bearish approach for unilateral trading, advocating short - term observation. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. 2. Report's Core View - The demand in the asphalt market continues to weaken, and local spot prices are falling. The asphalt market is in a weak and volatile state, lacking positive driving factors. This is due to the weakening and volatile crude oil prices, insufficient cost - side support, a weak asphalt fundamentals, the entry of northern terminals into the shutdown phase, low enthusiasm for traders to stock up, and the release of low - price forward resources by northern refineries [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 6th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3,109 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 2.05% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 201,642 lots, a decrease of 1,885 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 232,766 lots, an increase of 54,232 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,306 - 3,750 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,050 - 3,620 yuan/ton; South China: 3,270 - 3,520 yuan/ton; East China: 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot prices in the Northeast, Shandong, and South China regions continued to decline, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, with a focus on short - term observation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Figures - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral and main contract), domestic asphalt weekly production, production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy for SHFE aluminum: Long the nearby contract and short the distant contract [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas supply is affected by production cuts, while consumption is expected to enter the peak season. With macro - positive factors, the decline of aluminum prices is limited, and the upward space may be opened if the inventory reduction is smooth [6]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. The cost side has a slight downward space, and the spot price is difficult to rise. The current price valuation is low, and attention should be paid to potential emergencies [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 30 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,240 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes by 10 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton, and the spot premium remains unchanged at - 145 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On November 6, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,355 yuan/ton, the closing price is 21,630 yuan/ton, a change of 280 yuan/ton. The highest price is 21,690 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 21,330 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 178,925 lots, and the open interest is 228,130 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 622,000 tons, a change of - 5,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory is 63,969 tons, a change of - 225 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory is 548,375 tons, a change of - 2,075 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On November 6, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 2,840 yuan/ton, Shandong is 2,790 yuan/ton, Henan is 2,865 yuan/ton, Guangxi is 2,970 yuan/ton, Guizhou is 2,980 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 317 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On November 6, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 2,770 yuan/ton, the closing price is 2,787 yuan/ton, a change of 24 yuan/ton or 0.87% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price is 2,799 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 2,764 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 204,250 lots, and the open interest is 423,108 lots [2]. 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 6, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum is 16,900 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum procurement price is 17,100 yuan/ton, both with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 20,800 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 72,800 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 59,900 tons [4]. 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,042 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 142 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Overseas production cuts due to accidents, and the supply is not in surplus even with new and restarted capacity expectations. Consumption is expected to enter the peak season in November - December. With macro - positive factors, the decline of aluminum prices is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm [6]. 3.2.2 Alumina - The price of alumina continues to decline. The supply of bauxite is abundant, and the cost side has a slight downward space. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise [7][8].