投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 中东局势紧急升温，国际油价风险溢价飙升 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-03-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:中东局势紧急升温，国际油价风险溢价飙升 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年，全球原油及相关液体产量为10,784万桶/日，较2025年上升157万 | | | | 桶/日。(2)OPEC:1月份OPEC国家原油产量为2845.3万桶/日，较2025年12月份下降13.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1399.6万桶/日，较 | | | | 2025年12月份下降30.4万桶/日。（3）IEA：2026年1月份OPEC国家原油产量为2928万桶/日，较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts and risks have a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and base metals. For example, the gold price is affected by the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, and the copper price rises due to the fermentation of geopolitical risks [2][4][8]. - Different metals show different trends, including price increases, oscillations, and oscillations with an upward or downward bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot markets generally rose. For example, the daily increase of Comex gold 2602 was 1.82%, and the daily increase of London gold spot was 1.88% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of some contracts increased, while the open interest decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2602 increased by 25,303, and the open interest decreased by 1,496 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The joint military strike by the US and Israel on Iran has led to a sharp escalation of the regional situation, which has a significant impact on the gold market [4]. Silver - **Price Performance**: The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot markets generally rose. For example, the daily increase of Comex silver 2602 was 6.21%, and the daily increase of London silver spot was 6.30% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of some contracts increased, while the open interest decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai silver 2602 increased by 31,572, and the open interest decreased by 2,359 [4]. - **Trend**: It is in an oscillatory pattern [2]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The price of the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.22%, and the price of the London copper 3M electronic disk rose by 0.28%. However, the night - trading price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.62% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index increased by 79,669, and the open interest increased by 19,913. The trading volume of the London copper 3M electronic disk increased by 7,286, and the open interest decreased by 497 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Geopolitical risks have led to a sharp escalation of the regional situation, and the supply of refined copper in December 2025 was in surplus [8]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.57%, while the closing price of the London zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 1.74% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 10,174, and the open interest increased by 2,112. The trading volume of the London zinc increased by 434, and the open interest decreased by 3,669 [11]. - **News**: The central bank of China adjusted the forward foreign exchange sales risk reserve ratio, and the situation in the Middle East affected shipping prices [12]. - **Trend**: It is oscillating with a upward bias [2]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 0.27%, while the closing price of the London lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.96% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 6,221, and the open interest decreased by 1,080. The trading volume of the London lead decreased by 706, and the open interest decreased by 1,561 [14]. - **News**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant escalation of the regional situation [15]. - **Trend**: The decrease in inventory supports the price, and the trend strength is neutral [2][14]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The prices of the Shanghai tin main contract and the London tin 3M electronic disk rose significantly. The daily increase of the Shanghai tin main contract was 8.53%, and the daily increase of the London tin 3M electronic disk was 6.74% [18]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 227,884, and the open interest increased by 42,991. The trading volume of the London tin increased by 650, and the open interest decreased by 231 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Geopolitical events in the Middle East have a significant impact on the tin market [20]. - **Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - geopolitics [2]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy contracts showed different trends. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 10, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract decreased by 76 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts also showed different changes [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The situation in Iran and the adjustment of the US PPI have an impact on the market [23]. - **Trend**: Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy have a certain upward trend, while alumina is neutral [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price Performance**: The prices of platinum futures and spot markets generally rose, while the prices of palladium showed different trends. For example, the increase of platinum futures 2606 was 5.81%, and the increase of palladium futures 2606 was 8.09% [24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed differently [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The situation in Iran and other geopolitical events have an impact on the market [27]. - **Trend**: Both platinum and palladium have a neutral trend [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract rose by 520, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract decreased by 60 [29]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 130,488, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract increased by 29,790 [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various events in the nickel industry, such as the revision of the nickel ore benchmark price formula in Indonesia and the restart of nickel mines in Guatemala [29][30]. - **Trend**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a neutral trend [35].

2026年03月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 3 | | 铜：地缘政治风险发酵，价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观地缘影响 | 10 | | 铝：关注海外断供情况 | 11 | | 氧化铝：关注交易情绪 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：小幅跟随黄金走强 | 13 | | 钯：震荡为主 | 13 | | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 15 | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：供需去库，关注市场情绪 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 21 | | 硅铁：电费成本预期扰动，价格偏强震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：海外远期矿价抬升，价格偏强震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：仓单扰动叠加能源属性发 ...

中辉有色观点 | F | | | --- | --- | | 7 | C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 伊朗最高领袖身亡超各界预期，避险情绪将继续主导。当前美关税反复、地缘反复， | | | 多单持有 | 另外日本政府或给资本市场带来潜在动荡，黄金有支撑，中长期地缘秩序重塑，不 | | ★ | | 确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银将受到地缘波动影响加剧。白银光伏、新能源汽车及 AI 等新兴领域推动其工业 | | 白银 | 谨慎追高 | 需求占比攀升至近 60%，成为需求增长的核心引擎；全球流动性宽松强化了其与黄 | | ★ | | 金联动的避险金融属性。短期参与难度大，关注风险报偿比。 | | | | 美以联手闪击伊朗，哈梅内伊身故，战争存在扩大风险，霍尔木兹海峡封锁推高油 | | 铜 | | | | ★ | 多单持有 | 价，市场避险情绪走高，铜短期波动加剧，建议多单持有，部分逢高止盈，警惕宏 观情绪消退后铜价冲高回落，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 美以联手闪击伊朗，哈梅内伊身故，战 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-03-02 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-03-02 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美伊战争开启，霍尔木兹海峡封闭，大宗商品遭殃 观点分享： 2 月 28 日美国和以色列联合对伊朗发起"先发制人"军事打击，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊 遇袭身亡，伊方誓言"毁灭性报复打击"，霍尔木兹海峡被封锁。作为全球能源的咽喉，这 条水道的关闭意味着每天数千万桶的石油和大量的天然气无法运出，将直接冲击全球能源供 应、通胀预期和物流格局。原油将是受冲击最直接、最剧烈的品种。霍尔木兹海峡承担着全 球约五分之一的石油运输量，日均运输量高达 1800 万至 2000 万桶，市场交易的主线将从 基本面转向地缘政治风险溢价，油价波动率将急剧上升。对于天然气市场，全球约 20%至 25% 的液化天然气贸易需经过霍尔木兹海峡，全球最大液化天然气出口国之一的卡塔尔是核 心供应方一旦卡塔尔的出口受阻，全球液化天然气供应将瞬间紧张，有专家警告，欧洲天然 气交易价格可能会重演历史。原油成本上移将直接推高石脑油、烯烃、芳烃等基础化工原料 价格，进而导致聚乙烯、聚丙烯、乙二醇等下游产品 ...

【原油】 周末，美以联合对伊朗发动军事打击，造成伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及多名高级官员身亡。作为回 应，伊朗随即对美以目标发起代号为"真实承诺4"的军事行动，她区局势由此前对峙迅速升级为全 面军事对抗。伊朗宣布禁止任何船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。随着通航中断，该海峡目前已处于事实关 闭状态。受此影响,国际油价今日开盘跳空上涨,布伦特原油价格一度上涨近13%,触及每桶82美 元，随后回落至78美元，涨幅仍超7%。内盘SC原油期货预计开盘涨停。在美以与伊朗军事对抗持 续、霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航之前,地缘风险将对原油价格形成持续支撑。 【贵金属】 周末美以对伊朗展开军事行动,伊朗领袖哈梅内伊和多位高官身亡,伊朗对以色列和周边美军基地 实施报复打击。短期避险情绪将助推贵金属偏强运行，特朗普称对伊朗的军事行动可能持续4周，后 续走势需要看战争向谈判方向演绎还是向更大烈度扩张。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年03月02日 【铜】 上周五伦铜在高显性库存压制下回吐涨幅，沪铜交投区间稳定在密集均线上方。中东地缘局势发展 势态，将显著影响油价，相对支撑美元指数，对贵金属的配置溢价主要关注局势 ...

报告日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：地缘冲突升级，油价易涨难跌 上周末，中东地区军事冲突升级，原油大动脉、国际最重要的咽喉要道之一—霍 尔木兹海峡受到冲击，直接关停。有海外机构预测，布伦特原油期货价格可能突 破 100 美元/桶，"短期油价存上涨空间，布伦特原油期货价格有望站上 75 美元 /桶的区间。"期市夜盘收盘，国内期货主力合约多数上涨。涨幅方面，原油、 燃料油、甲醇等涨幅较大。跌幅方面，沪镍、焦煤、玻璃等跌超 1%。 重点品种：原油、甲醇 2）国内新闻 原油：外盘油价跳涨 8%。伊朗已宣布管控霍尔木兹海峡，目前所有途经该航线 的船只均已停航。霍尔木兹海峡日均运输约 2000 万桶石油及石油制品，伊拉 克、卡塔尔、科威特、阿联酋、伊朗以及沙特的石油运输将受到影响。受地理条 件限制，中东国家难以找到有效替代路线。但随后伊朗外长表态不寻求封锁霍尔 木兹海峡。后续油价可能出现三种走向，对应三种战争状态：第一种：和平状态 美国扶持的代理人顺利上台，伊朗效仿委内瑞拉与美国达成协议，海峡封锁解除， 伊朗原油出口恢复。全球油价将在短暂冲高后快速回落，但中国长期进口的廉价 伊朗能源将消 ...

贵金属周报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 美伊冲突再度升级，贵金属受到提振 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周市场在特朗普与美国最高法院的对抗加剧，以及美国 和伊朗第三轮核谈判的不确定性中持续走高。上周六美国 与以色列联合对伊朗发动大规模军事打击，伊朗最高领袖 哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，伊朗称将开启最猛烈进攻，地缘政治 格局遭遇数十年来最剧烈冲击。 ⚫ 从以往的历史来看，地缘政治冲突的加剧会对贵金属价格 形成短期向上的驱动，短期贵金属价格可能会脉冲式上 涨，而后重回其运行趋势。此次美伊冲突引发市场避险情 绪的急剧抬升，从链上黄金冲高后回吐大 ...

缘政治风险发酵, 2026年03月02日 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012691 季先飞 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 103, 920 | 1822% | 103280 | -0.62% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 13. 296 | 0. 28% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期货 | 沪铜指数 305. 826 | 79.669 | 578. 498 | 19.913 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 25, 260 | 7.286 | 316. 000 | -497 | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动。 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 290. 594 | 1.375 | | 1 | | | 伦铜 253. 700 | 100 | 5. 18% | 0. 15% | | | | 昨日价美 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴 ...

2026 年 3 月 2 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1151.34 | 1147.900 | 22775 | 23019 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1150.10 | 1146.480 | 22286 | 22572 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | 1.24 | 1.420 | 489 | 447 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | 0.11% | 0.12% | 2.19% | 1.98% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 105733 | 150146 | 162275 | 171170 | | | | 成交量 | 44122 | 194710 | 2 ...