Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report on November 19, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Soybean and Bean Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. The price of US soybeans reached 1070 cents per bushel, hitting the cost line and triggering a correction. Brazilian soybean premiums fell by 3 - 6 cents per bushel. The cost of imported soybeans fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly by 20 yuan per ton, with the price in East China reported at 2990 yuan per ton. The trading and pick - up of soybean meal were both good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.3492 million tons, compared with 2.0776 million tons last week. Soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week - on - week last week but remained high year - on - year [2] - In the next two weeks, the areas in the Brazilian soybean - producing regions with less rainfall in the early stage are expected to receive rainfall, and the sowing is expected to proceed smoothly. As of last Thursday, the planting progress had reached 71%. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons, tightening the global soybean balance sheet marginally. The US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but the US soybean exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory. The US soybean futures price thus corrected at high levels [3] Strategy View - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space may require greater production cuts. The current domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, and the crushing margin is under pressure. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5] Group 3: Oils Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days decreased by 10%. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared with the same period last month, and was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. The US Department of Agriculture reported that exporters sold 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Domestic oils fluctuated on Tuesday and rose at night. The expectation of seasonal de - stocking supported the market, and the EPA's proposal for higher biodiesel usage in 2026 than expected also had an impact. The domestic spot basis was stable [7] Strategy View - The higher - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the palm oil market, but the recent improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports has provided some support. The sustainability of this support needs to be observed. Palm oil may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. It is recommended to view palm oil as range - bound, and turn to a bullish view if there are signals of production decline [8][10] Group 4: Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fall. The closing price of the January contract was 5407 yuan per ton, a decrease of 51 yuan per ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups had no quotes for old sugar; Yunnan sugar - making groups' new sugar was quoted at 5630 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5750 - 5870 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The International Sugar Organization predicted that there would be a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, compared with a 2.92 - million - ton deficit in the 2024/25 season. It is expected that the global sugar production will increase by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season, while consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 213,200 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 3.9054 million tons of sugar, an increase of 473,700 tons or 13.8% year - on - year. As of now, 325 sugar mills in India have started production, an increase of 181 compared with the same period last year. The sugarcane crushing volume reached 12.8 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons compared with the same period last year; the sugar production reached 1.05 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons; the average sugar yield was 8.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year [11][12] Strategy View - Recently, the strengthening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up the Zhengzhou sugar futures price, but the external market is still weak. Since August this year, due to the significant increase in the proportion of sugarcane - made sugar, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded that of last year, leading to a continuous decline in the raw sugar price. With the expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere's major producing countries in the 2025/26 season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short at high prices [13] Group 5: Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and fell. The closing price of the January contract was 13,395 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton or 0.37% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,789 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1394 yuan per ton. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. According to the USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September estimate. The US cotton production was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the Brazilian production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the Indian production remained at 5.23 million tons; the Chinese production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons. As of the week of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last week, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the five - year average. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.28 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year [15][16] Strategy View - Fundamentally, the downstream demand is weak, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is also significant selling - hedging pressure due to this year's domestic bumper harvest. However, the previous decline in the futures price has digested some negative factors. The market currently lacks strong driving forces, and the cotton price is expected to continue to trade in a range in the short term [17] Group 6: Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was stable to lower yesterday. The average price in the main producing areas decreased by 0.08 yuan to 2.84 yuan per catty. The price in Heishan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 2.7 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.64 yuan per catty. The supply remained stable, the downstream demand was generally weak, and there was a small amount of inventory pressure. Traders were conservative, and the short - term bearish sentiment was mild. The egg price is expected to be stable to lower today [20] Strategy View - The futures price rebounded earlier than the spot price due to market expectations of a turnaround in the egg - laying hen inventory and increased demand after the temperature drop. The far - month contracts were relatively strong, but the spot price did not rise as expected, leading to an increase in the premium. The futures price fluctuated due to market sentiment. In the short term, the focus is on the strength of demand. The futures price is expected to trade in a range before the spot price realizes the seasonal increase. The near - month contracts are about the premium/discount game, and the far - month contracts reflect the expectation of production capacity reduction. In the medium term, as demand weakens and the focus returns to supply, pay attention to the upper resistance and look for opportunities to short on rebounds [21] Group 7: Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price was mainly stable with some minor increases yesterday. The average price in Henan increased by 0.09 yuan to 11.62 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Sichuan increased by 0.02 yuan to 11.27 yuan per kilogram. Farmers were reluctant to sell, and the supply of large - sized pigs was normal. The downstream had difficulty in purchasing at low prices. The pig price is expected to be stable to higher today [23] Strategy View - The current rebound in the pig price is mainly driven by frozen pork storage and second - fattening. The subsequent supply will, together with the basic supply and future pre - supply, create a bearish pattern of high slaughter volume and large pig weight before the Spring Festival. In the context of oversupply, the general direction of the futures price is to short on rebounds. However, the current pattern of low prices and high open interest has formed, and there is a possibility of a rebound in the short term. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of production capacity reduction in the long term, the first - recommended strategy is the reverse spread, followed by shorting on rebounds [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures lies in whether the 53 bushels per acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decline, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases claimed by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will fluctuate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal will lack a unilateral driving force. The near - term contracts will strengthen due to seasonal de - stocking, while the far - term contracts will be weak due to Brazilian supply pressure, continuing the positive spread logic [1]. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There are additional negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and with the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. Therefore, the inventory of rapeseed meal at coastal and oil mills remains high, and it is considered weak. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on supply - side yield adjustments and demand - side Chinese purchases. The domestic market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Near - term contracts are affected by seasonal de - stocking, and far - term contracts are pressured by Brazilian supply [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will have a weak supply - demand situation in Q4. There are negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed arrivals will limit demand growth and increase supply expectations [2]. - **Proximal Trading Logic**: Currently, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills is high, and the oil mill crushing volume has slightly increased. The demand is limited, and the warehouse receipt pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal is about to decline, making the near - term narrative dominant [6]. - **Distal Trading Expectations**: The cost of far - month soybeans is high, and import profits are falling, indicating limited far - month purchases. Sino - US trade relations are easing, and the supply gap is expected to narrow. Rapeseed meal supply may improve, and demand is expected to weaken. Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting is progressing well, and future harvest pressure will affect domestic meal prices [17]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: The market will be in a range - bound state. The M2601 contract will fluctuate between 2800 - 3200 [25]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced; consider a covered call strategy with options; hold the previously sold call options for rapeseed meal 2601; for non - holders, avoid excessive short - chasing after a Monday low - opening, and consider high - selling and low - buying or positive spread strategies [25]. - **Basis, Spread and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: For basis strategies, use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk. For spread strategies, reduce positions in M3 - 5 and M1 - 3 spreads. For hedging arbitrage strategies, narrow the spread of soybean and rapeseed meal 2601 at high levels [26]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, and that of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750 [28]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures; feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures [28]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB are provided [29]. - **Spreads**: Information on the spreads between different contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal, as well as the basis and spot spreads, is presented [30]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs and pressing profits of US, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are given [31]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The USDA's November report shows a lower US soybean yield and production than previous forecasts. Argentina's soybean planting progress is behind schedule, and the NOPA's October report shows an increase in soybean meal production [33][34]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's soybean planting progress is fast, and its October exports are higher than last year. The USDA has not resumed the weekly crop growth report due to the government shutdown [35]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream customers continue to purchase on a need - to - use basis [35]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data; Tuesday: Brazil's Secex weekly report; Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report [42] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures followed the external market, first falling, then rising, and then falling again. The rapeseed meal futures continued to decline due to previous China - Canada negotiations. Key profitable seats in soybean and rapeseed meal reduced short positions and increased long positions, and the market sentiment for soybean meal turned bullish. The 1 - 5 spreads of both soybean and rapeseed meal weakened. The basis of both soybean and rapeseed meal declined, and the spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal narrowed [39][40][44]. - **External Market**: After the USDA report, the prices of both domestic and external markets declined. Then, with the news of Sino - US soybean purchases, US soybeans rebounded, and the domestic market followed. The net long positions of CBOT soybeans returned above the zero - axis [56][60]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profits in US soybean production areas are weakening due to rising costs, while the monthly pressing volume remains high. The pressing profits in Brazilian and Argentine production areas are also weakening, and the pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are rising due to falling prices [62]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - After Argentina opened the export window in September, the domestic soybean meal price declined, but the decline was limited due to the lack of negative feedback from domestic purchases. Recently, although the market has rebounded, the pressing profits have not improved. The near - term domestic supply pressure and profit support limit the downward space, while the far - term market may decline after the collapse of Brazilian premium prices. The import of rapeseed has shown pressing profits, but subsequent purchases are expected to be cautious due to margin factors [67]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - For the September new - crop balance sheet, the US soybean production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. The demand for crushing will continue to grow, while the export will be weak. If Sino - US trade resumes, exports may recover. The ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight. The October balance sheet was not released due to the government shutdown, and attention should be paid to the November balance sheet [71]. - Globally, in the 2025/26 soybean balance sheet, the beginning inventory and production are expected to decline, the crushing volume will decrease, the export volume will slightly increase, and the ending inventory will decline [75]. 5.2 Domestic Supply - Side and Deduction - The import of soybeans will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter, and the supply will enter a seasonal de - stocking phase. The import of rapeseed will remain low [77]. 5.3 Domestic Demand - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean crushing volume will remain high, and the consumption of soybean meal will have limited growth [79]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean inventory will decline in the fourth quarter and is expected to stabilize and rebound in the first quarter of next year. The soybean meal inventory will also decline and remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [81].

Industry Investment Ratings - Two-olefin: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins declined. Propylene prices were supported, while plastics and polypropylene faced supply pressure and weakening demand but had a technical rebound need [2]. - Overseas pure benzene rebounded, but the domestic market faced pressure. Styrene maintained a tight balance with high port inventory but a de - stocking expectation [3]. - PX supported PTA, but PTA faced weakening demand. Ethylene glycol had supply growth pressure and a bearish outlook. Short fiber and bottle chip faced demand weakening [5]. - Methanol was weak due to high inventory and weak demand. Urea might be strong before the Indian tender but could decline later [6]. - PVC continued to decline with high supply and low demand. Caustic soda was in a downward trend with high supply and insufficient demand [7]. - Soda ash declined with a long - term oversupply. Glass continued to decline with high intermediate inventory [8]. Section Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures fell. Propylene prices were supported by restarted downstream devices and low inventory. Plastic and polypropylene futures fell, with supply pressure and weakening demand but a technical rebound need [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas pure benzene rebounded but lacked sustainability. The domestic market faced pressure. Styrene maintained a tight balance, with high port inventory but a de - stocking expectation [3]. Polyester - PX supported PTA, but PTA faced weakening demand. Ethylene glycol had supply growth pressure and a bearish outlook. Short fiber and bottle chip faced demand weakening [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol was weak due to high inventory and weak demand. Urea might be strong before the Indian tender but could decline later [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC continued to decline with high supply and low demand. Caustic soda was in a downward trend with high supply and insufficient demand [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash declined with a long - term oversupply. Glass continued to decline with high intermediate inventory [8].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, while the glass market is likely to continue its downward trend in the medium term if there is no new market expectation stimulus [8][9] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 17, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract oscillated with a slight upward trend. The closing price was 1,231 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.16%, with a daily reduction of 19,289 lots [7] - Fundamentally, enterprise production and sales are approaching balance, and inventory reduction is not obvious. Weekly soda ash production decreased 1.01% to 73.93 tons, still at a high level. The soda ash device is running stably, and individual overhauls have little overall impact. In the demand side, the shipment of Chinese soda ash enterprises from mid - to early November increased 1.57% to 74.62 tons. The production of float glass decreased 1.08% to 111.39 tons. The alkali plant inventory slightly decreased to 170.73 tons, in the middle range of the past six months [8] - In the short - term, the disk price is affected by the increase in light soda ash price and the expected equipment overhaul in late November, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern of oversupply may continue [8] Glass - Fundamentally, the daily melting volume of float glass remains high, and the supply is supported. The photovoltaic glass is in a weak balance, and the overall glass supply is at a high level for the year. After the holiday, the factory inventory remains high. The real estate market has not shown a stabilizing trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise [9] - Recently, the disk price has been oscillating weakly. In the medium - term, if there is no new market expectation, the downward trend of the disk is difficult to change [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda ash market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][14][17]

行，由于检修企业在本周涉及检修天数增多，预计产能利用率将进一步下滑。br2601合约短线预计在1020 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 0-10700区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10505 | 50 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 72021 | -1785 | | | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 5 | -35 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2980 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 10500 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 10500 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Fats and Oils - Palm oil is expected to maintain a low - level volatile or weakly rebound trend, with Dalian palm oil futures fluctuating between 8600 - 8700 yuan. There is pressure to weaken again. Port inventory may rise due to reduced demand in cold weather [1]. - For soybean oil, the 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up, but the ending stocks are down. CBOT soybean oil is supported. In China, the spot price is slightly up, and the inventory is stable [1]. 2.2 Live Pigs - The spot price is weak, and the market is in a weak - range oscillation. The mid - term outlook is not optimistic. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [3]. 2.3 Meal Products - The USDA report lacks positive factors for US soybeans. China's soybean meal supply is loose, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [8]. 2.4 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the price rebounds, but the upside is limited due to supply pressure. Attention should be paid to selling and purchasing rhythms and storage [10]. 2.5 Sugar - India's sugar export may face difficulties in the short term. Brazil's supply is loose. The raw sugar price will oscillate around 14 cents/pound. The sugar market will maintain an oscillation this week [14]. 2.6 Cotton - The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton. In China, new cotton supply is high, and demand is weak, but some downstream support exists. The short - term cotton price will be under pressure [15]. 2.7 Eggs - The egg market supply is loose, and demand is weak in the short term. The price decline has not widened, and the market will be weakly oscillating. Near - month short positions can be closed gradually [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8590 yuan, unchanged from November 14. The basis is 308 yuan, down 7.78%. The 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up to 322.76 billion pounds [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8590 yuan, up 20 yuan. The basis is - 54 yuan, down 103.70%. The inventory may rise [1]. 3.2 Live Pigs - **Futures**: The main contract basis is - 45 yuan, down 120%. The price of live pigs 2605 is 12140 yuan, down 0.45% [3]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan is 11650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. The slaughter volume is up 0.05% [3]. 3.3 Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, down 0.65%. The basis is - 3 yuan, up 90.63% [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan, down 3.2%. The basis is - 29 yuan, down 390% [8]. 3.4 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port is 2182 yuan, down 0.14%. The basis is 48 yuan, up 92% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 is 2489 yuan, down 0.64%. The basis is 21 yuan, up 320% [10]. 3.5 Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5458 yuan, down 0.22%. The 1 - 5 spread is 60 yuan, down 9.09% [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning is 5600 yuan, down 1.06%. The national sugar production is up 12.03% [14]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13455 yuan, down 0.11%. The 5 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, down 50% [15]. - **Spot**: The price of Xinjiang 3128B is 14579 yuan, down 0.1%. The commercial inventory is up 70.4% [15]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: The price of egg 12 contract is 2987 yuan/500KG, down 1.52%. The 12 - 01 spread is - 242 yuan, down 19.8% [17]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area is 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.82%. The laying hen inventory is high [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and inventory slightly accumulating under new - capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural film. It is recommended to gradually stop losses and reduce positions on previous short positions near the previous low, and the market is expected to have limited rebound space [2]. Methanol - In the inland market, Baofeng continues to purchase externally, and Jiutai has unexpected maintenance. Iranian gas restrictions are postponed, and shipments are accelerating, putting pressure on the port methanol market. The market is trading under the "weak reality" logic, and the 01 - contract inventory contradiction cannot be resolved. It is recommended to pay attention to the marginal device operation [4]. Crude Oil - The short - term crude oil market has no clear direction. The continuous sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States and the attacks on Russian refineries by Ukrainian drones support the oil price, but the continuous production increase of OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production limit the rebound space. Brent oil is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [7]. Natural Rubber - Supply - side factors such as cold weather in Yunnan and continuous rainy season in southern Thailand may keep raw material prices high. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. If raw material supply is smooth, there may be further downward space; otherwise, the rubber price is expected to run between 15000 - 15500 [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be relatively loose, with limited demand support and high port inventory. The short - term rebound space of BZ2603 is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. Styrene's supply - demand situation has improved in November, but the rebound space is also limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 6600 - 6700 for EB12 [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has an overall surplus pattern, with high production and inventory transfer to the middle and lower reaches. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Glass has short - term rigid demand support but faces long - term demand contraction pressure, and it is expected to be weak in the medium - term [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply remains at a relatively high level, and the short - term demand has support, but the rebound sustainability is insufficient. PTA is expected to be in a tight balance in November and loose in the future. MEG is expected to have inventory accumulation, and short - fiber and bottle - chip also face supply - demand challenges [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has supply - demand pressure, with weak demand from the alumina industry, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, with weak demand and limited upward driving force [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 prices decreased slightly. L15 and PP15 spreads increased. Spot prices of some products decreased, and some basis values changed [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and social inventories of PE decreased. The PE and PP device and downstream weighted开工率 showed different trends [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices decreased. Some basis values and regional spreads changed. Methanol enterprise inventory decreased, while port and social inventories increased [4]. - **开工率**: Domestic and overseas upstream enterprise开工率 increased, while some downstream开工率 decreased [4]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices had different changes. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased [7]. - **Product Prices**: Some refined product prices such as NYM RBOB decreased, while NYM ULSD increased [7]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Some spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole - latex remained unchanged, and some spreads changed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in some countries decreased, while China's production increased. Tire production and export showed different trends, and import volume increased [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and some spreads such as pure benzene - naphtha increased [11]. - **Benzene - Styrene Prices and Spreads**: Benzene - styrene prices increased, and some spreads and cash - flows changed [11]. - **Downstream Cash - flows and开工率**: Cash - flows of some downstream products changed, and the开工率 of some products also changed [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash futures and spot prices had different changes, and some basis values changed [12]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash production and开工率 decreased, and glass melting volume remained unchanged. Inventories of glass and soda ash increased [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed [13]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash - flows**: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [13]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX, PTA, and MEG prices, spreads, and开工率 had different changes, and MEG port inventory and arrival expectations were also provided [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices changed, and some spreads and basis values changed [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side开工率 of PVC and caustic soda changed, and demand - side downstream开工率 also changed. Inventories of PVC and caustic soda decreased [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - Nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation due to high inventory and oversupply, and stainless steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern because of weak demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 117,020 yuan/ton and closed at 116,750 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 102,806 (-15,915) lots, and the open interest was 107,341 (-4,908) lots. The price continued the downward trend after breaking through on November 14. The strengthening of the US dollar index and loose supply - demand relationship with rising inventory led to a clear short - term downward trend [1] - **Nickel Ore**: New tenders in the nickel ore market are about to be finalized, and the price is stable. In the Philippines, there are tenders for 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen and 1.25% nickel ore from Benguet. The downstream nickel - iron price is falling, and iron plants are cautious in purchasing nickel ore and want to lower the price. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November dropped by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly at +25 - 26 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises increased, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands mostly rose. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 3,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 35,826 (799) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 257,694 (5,604) tons [2] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,415 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 137,113 (+17,461) lots, and the open interest was 172,728 (-4,171) lots. The price fluctuated at a low level, hovering around the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, with the short - term moving average system intertwined and the direction unclear. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and falling nickel prices, there was no sign of a price rebound [3] - **Spot**: The price continued to decline to a historical low, and the market inquiry heat increased. In the context of weak demand and falling raw material costs, steel mills were more willing to sell at low prices. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 12,700 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,750 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 380 - 580 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 902.5 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback of the recent decline in the steel market has ended, and short - term price increases are mainly due to short - sellers taking profits. Steel demand has entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2]. - For iron ore, although the supply has recovered and high inventory suppresses prices, the short - term increase in hot metal production supports demand. In the macro - vacuum period, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. - For the black sector, as the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on sentiment and prices is expected to increase. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The future price increase depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [10][11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3097 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.441%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3655 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 107385 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (1.412%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 6484 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 23505 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, and inventory is accumulating against the season. In the short term, prices are likely to be weak and volatile, but there may be an inflection point in demand later [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 788.50 yuan/ton, up 2.07% (+16.00). The positions increased by 1019 lots to 48.14 million lots. The weighted positions were 90.75 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.38% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume has recovered significantly. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal output has increased, but the steel mill profitability rate is declining. Port inventory is accumulating. In the short term, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - The manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.77% at 5792 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF601) closed up 1.38% at 5566 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 34 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - As the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on the black sector is expected to increase. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9080 yuan/ton, up 0.67% (+60). The weighted contract positions decreased by 2209 lots to 401179 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 52655 yuan/ton, down 2.57% (-1390). The weighted contract positions decreased by 6818 lots to 234241 lots [16]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1029 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (-3). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 11.10 million cases (0.18%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1231 yuan/ton, up 0.41% (+5). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 0.69 million tons (0.18%) [21]. Strategy Viewpoints - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, near - term TA has partial device maintenance, with开工 decreasing, polyester load dropping, inventory accumulating, and basis remaining weak. Spot processing fees improve slightly. PX has a good pattern, and opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees should be noted [3]. - For MEG, near - term domestic oil - based production increases, coal - based production has partial maintenance and load reduction, overall operation decreases, and inventory accumulates. In the short - term, EG inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease, and the long - term pattern is expected to weaken [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - term device operation is stable, production and sales are weak, and inventory accumulates. Although the downstream has no obvious improvement, short - fiber exports are growing, and opportunities for expanding processing fees and the situation of warehouse receipts should be noted [3]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 11 - 17, crude oil decreased by $0.2, PTA internal - market spot decreased by $20, and polyester margin increased by 37. The average daily transaction basis of PTA spot is 2601(-71) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million - ton device is under maintenance [3]. - **Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, downstream pressure is not obvious, and the inventory accumulation slope is not high. Opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees should be noted [3]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 11 - 17, MEG outer - market price decreased by $3, and MEG coal - based profit remained unchanged. The basis of MEG spot is around 01(+40) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device, Huayi's 200,000 - ton device are under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarts [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, EG inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease. The long - term pattern is expected to weaken [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 11 - 17, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by $15, and short - fiber profit remained unchanged. The spot price is around 6297, and the market basis is around 12 - 20 [3]. - **Device Changes**: No device maintenance information [3]. - **Outlook**: Although the downstream has no obvious improvement, short - fiber exports are growing, and opportunities for expanding processing fees and the situation of warehouse receipts should be noted [3]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: From November 11 - 17, the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 105, and the price of Thai cup - rubber remained unchanged. The weekly change of RU main contract is 205, and that of NR main contract is 190 [6]. - **Key Relationships**: The basis of mixed - RU main contract decreased by 125, and the processing profit of Thai standard remained at 15 [6]. - **Outlook**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From November 11 - 17, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, and styrene (CFR China) increased by 2. The daily change of PS (East China transparent benzene) is 20, and that of styrene domestic profit is - 55 [9].