Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a mixed trend with stable spot prices and weakening futures, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic in the industry [1][6]. Supply - July production continues to decline, with a total drop of 9,000 tons from May's peak, including a reduction of 50,000 tons in pig iron and a decrease of 40,000 tons in scrap steel consumption [3]. - The current pig iron production is at 2.398 million tons, while scrap steel consumption remains stable at 505,000 tons [3]. - The total production of the five major steel products decreased by 124,400 tons to 8.72 million tons, with rebar production down by 40,000 tons to 2.167 million tons and hot-rolled coil production down by 50,000 tons to 3.232 million tons [3]. - The annual production growth rate is expected to remain at 3.3% due to high base effects from the previous year [3]. Demand - The apparent demand for the five major steel products remains stable, with a slight decrease in May compared to April, but June and July demand did not decline further, indicating better-than-expected seasonal demand [4]. - The apparent demand for the five major products decreased by 122,000 tons to 8.73 million tons [4]. - In July, hot-rolled coil production exceeded apparent demand, while rebar production was slightly below apparent demand [4]. Inventory - Recent production trends are closely following apparent demand, with inventory levels fluctuating accordingly [5]. - The inventory of the five major products decreased by 3,500 tons to 13.4 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 50,000 tons to 5.4 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 3.457 million tons [5]. - The supply-demand balance remains stable, with both supply and demand decreasing for rebar, while hot-rolled coil shows a slight inventory increase [5]. Cost and Profit - The cost side shows that coking coal production in Shanxi is gradually recovering, but recent restocking by traders has kept spot prices strong [2]. - Iron ore shipments in June have led to a slight increase in inventory, but the price of iron ore remains resilient due to expectations of a significant reduction in pig iron production [2]. - Profit margins from high to low are currently: steel billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled [2]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is showing signs of improvement, with traders restocking and demand for spot steel improving slightly [6]. - The next macro observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July, which could influence market dynamics [6]. - Current price levels for rebar at 3,100 yuan and hot-rolled coil at 3,300 yuan are critical, with potential resistance levels at 3,220 yuan for rebar and 3,350 yuan for hot-rolled coil [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Non - ferrous Metals Derivatives Daily Report [1][6] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 78,090 yuan/ton, down 0.26%, and the Shanghai Copper index increased by 2,144 lots to 512,300 lots [2] - Spot: In the East China market, the monthly spread converged significantly, downstream consumption was weak, and the premium opened high and went low; in the Guangdong market, inventory increased for 2 consecutive days, and downstream consumption was inactive; in the North China market, the monthly spread structure reversed on the delivery day, and the spot premium and discount rose sharply, but the trading activity was not high [3] Important Information - GDP: In the first half of the year, the GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In the second quarter, GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year [4] - Imports: In June 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrates was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. In June, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 464,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 2.633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [4] Logic Analysis - Tariffs: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st with a rate of 50%. The US's siphoning of refined copper from the world is nearing its end. Before August 1st, in - transit supplies will continue to arrive at ports, and the Comex copper inventory will continue to increase. After that, the supply to the US will decrease significantly, and the supply shortage in non - US regions will be alleviated [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: No specific strategy mentioned - Arbitrage: No specific strategy mentioned - Options: No specific strategy mentioned Group 3: Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 38 yuan to 3,165 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,337 lots to 413,800 lots [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of Alumina by Aladdin rose 5 yuan to 3,175 yuan; the national weighted index rose 8.6 yuan to 3,210.8 yuan [9] Relevant Information - Policy: On July 1st, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, emphasizing the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [10] - Inventory: As of July 15th, the alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 25,526 tons, a net increase of 2,111 tons [11] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: The operating capacity of alumina remained flat week - on - week, but production was still increasing. The supply - demand pattern of alumina in July will gradually evolve from a tight balance to a structural surplus, but the demand for warehouse receipts may disperse the pressure of spot surplus [14] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term strong and volatile, high - selling and low - buying within the range [15] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [16] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [16] Group 4: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 20,430 yuan/ton, and the weighted position decreased by 8,776 lots to 635,800 lots [18] - Spot: On July 15th, the spot price of aluminum ingots in East China was 20,510 yuan, up 50 yuan; in South China, it was 20,500 yuan, up 40 yuan; in the Central Plains, it was 20,380 yuan, up 50 yuan [18] Relevant Information - Inventory: On July 15th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major markets decreased by 0.3 tons compared with the previous trading day [19] - Industry: In May 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 92.92GW, a year - on - year increase of 388.03%. From January to May, the cumulative installed capacity was 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 149.97% [19] Trading Logic - Macro: The US tariff negotiation deadline was postponed to August 1st. Domestically, attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings this month [22] - Supply - demand: The negative feedback of the fundamentals is still there. The production of aluminum rods has been reduced for three consecutive weeks, and the ingot casting has increased, driving up the inventory of aluminum ingots in social warehouses. The demand in the off - season may not be too weak [22] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels in the short term, maintaining a bearish mindset [23] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [23] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [23] Group 5: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract remained flat at 19,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 31 lots to 9,982 lots [25] - Spot: On July 15th, the spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in East China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China remained flat at 19,600 yuan/ton, and the imported price remained flat at 19,300 yuan/ton [25] Relevant Information - Production: In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons, of which the output of ADC12 increased by 2.46 million tons to 32.6 million tons [25] - Inventory: As of July 14th, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 26,680 tons, an increase of 1,368 tons from the previous trading day [26] Trading Logic - Supply: Enterprises are generally active in shipping, but actual transactions are blocked. The supply of deliverable products is stable, and non - deliverable product inventory is transferred to social inventory. Raw materials are in short supply [27] - Demand: Downstream die - casting enterprises generally have insufficient orders, mostly replenish inventory in small quantities as needed or consume inventory, and postpone purchases except for rigid demand [27] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Under pressure at high levels, maintaining a bearish mindset [30] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan; consider spot - futures arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is above 400 yuan [30] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [30] Group 6: Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract fell 0.54% to 22,085 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc index decreased by 1,770 lots to 236,500 lots [31] - Spot: In the Shanghai market, traders continued to actively sell goods. In the morning, the zinc price on the disk dropped, and some downstream enterprises placed orders to pick up goods. Some traders reported that spot transactions had improved [31] Relevant Information - Production: A zinc smelter in Central China plans to conduct a regular maintenance for half a month in August, which is expected to affect about 1,500 tons of production [32] - Inventory: As of July 14th, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major markets was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with July 7th [32] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Currently, the domestic zinc supply continues to increase, consumption has entered the off - season, and social inventory is showing a cumulative trend. Zinc prices may be under pressure to decline due to fundamentals [32] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable short positions can continue to be held, and short positions can still be added at high prices [35] - Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options [35] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [35] Group 7: Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract fell 0.76% to 16,930 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead index increased by 1,494 lots to 96,300 lots [37] - Spot: On July 15th, the average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. Refined lead holders' quotes followed the decline slightly [37] Relevant Information - Inventory: As of July 14th, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five major markets was 63,400 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons compared with July 7th [38] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Currently, recycled lead is still in a loss - making situation, and the willingness to start production is difficult to improve. In July, there are maintenance plans for domestic primary lead smelting, which will have a certain impact on primary lead supply. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and the production of battery enterprises has improved [39] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range [40] - Arbitrage: Sell put options [40] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [40] Group 8: Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2508 fell 1,390 to 119,380 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 14,499 lots [42] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of Russian nickel remained flat at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of electrowon nickel remained flat at 100 yuan/ton [42] Relevant Information - Exploration: Canadian Nickel Company announced positive results from its latest exploration drilling at the MacDiarmid project, discovering a new mineralized area [43] - Production: In June, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4% [43] Logic Analysis - Market: The market's concern about US tariffs has resurfaced, and commodities generally fell overnight. The supply and demand of refined nickel are both weak in the off - season, and the short - term inventory is steadily increasing slightly [45] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Weakening in a volatile manner [45] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [46] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [47] Group 9: Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 rose 10 to 12,695 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 11,703 lots [49] - Spot: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel was 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled stainless steel was 12,150 - 12,200 yuan/ton [49] Relevant Information - Transaction: On July 14th, a stainless steel plant in South China purchased high - nickel pig iron at a price of 900 yuan/nickel point, with a total transaction volume of over 10,000 tons and a delivery period in mid - to - late August [50] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Stainless steel's external demand is restricted by tariffs and re - export obstacles, and domestic demand has also entered the off - season. The demand is not optimistic, and it is difficult to absorb the current inventory pressure [50] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [51] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [52] Group 10: Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures strengthened significantly during the day, closing at 8,785 yuan/ton, up 2.81% [54] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon strengthened significantly during the day, generally rising by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [56] Relevant Information - Policy: On July 1st, the US Department of Commerce launched a 232 - clause investigation into imported drones and their components, as well as polysilicon and its derivatives [57] Comprehensive Analysis - Supply - demand: The production of leading large - scale factories has been reduced by nearly 40%, with a monthly output reduction of 60,000 tons; southwest silicon factories are gradually resuming production, with a monthly output increase of about 40,000 tons. In July, the output of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons [58] Strategy - Unilateral: Strong in the short term [58] - Options: None for now [58] - Arbitrage: Stop profiting from the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [58] Group 11: Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market news, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose and then fell during the day, closing at 42,470 yuan/ton, up 2.78% [59] - Spot: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network statistics, the spot price of polysilicon was adjusted downward during the day, and the average price of N - type granular silicon decreased by 0.5 yuan/kg [59] Relevant Information - Market: After SMM's research, the market views and price adjustment trends of the top 5 component factories are divergent. Some leading component enterprises have officially raised the distributed guidance price [60] Comprehensive Analysis - Price: If a fixed price is set as the minimum price limit for the polysilicon industry, the high point of the polysilicon futures price will be the industry's minimum price limit. It is expected that the polysilicon futures price will fluctuate in the range of (37,000, 45,000) in the short term [63] Strategy - Unilateral: Long positions should consider taking profits [64] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [64] - Arbitrage: Gradually stop profiting from the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [64] Group 12: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose 140 to 66,100 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 12,117 lots, and the warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 1 to 11,203 tons [65] - Spot: The SMM - quoted price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 to 64,900 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 to 63,300 yuan/ton [65] Relevant Information - Project: On the evening of July 14th, Zangge Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary's invested company, Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., received a mining license [66] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Recently, there have been many supply - side disturbance news, but it has not had a substantial impact on production. The supply elasticity of domestic lithium salts is still large. In July, the off - season is not weak, and the price is difficult to fall deeply [67] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Avoid risks in the short term and wait for the right - hand short - selling opportunity [70] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [70] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [70] Group 13: Industry Data - Multiple metal varieties' daily data tables are provided, including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the PP01 - 3MA01 spread when it is high [3] Core Viewpoints - Overseas methanol production is operating at a high level, and the pressure of methanol arriving at Chinese ports remains high, leading to a stockpiling cycle at ports. The Xingxing MTO maintenance plan is yet to be implemented. If it is carried out smoothly, port demand will be further affected. Although the short - term situation at ports is weak, the market expects a significant scale of overseas gas - based methanol maintenance in the fourth quarter, which makes the long - term outlook optimistic [2] - In the inland region, short - term maintenance of inland coal - based methanol has led to a decline in supply. Although the formaldehyde in traditional downstream industries is in a seasonal off - season, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable. The demand in the inland region remains resilient, and the inventory rebuilding rate of inland methanol factories is still slow. The inland market is stronger than the port market [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents figures related to methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) compared with the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][28][29] III. Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures display regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc [37][44] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, falling 0.2% to $9,643.5 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell 0.34%. The market is worried about the intensification of trade conflicts. Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st has caused market discussions. From the price difference between US copper and LME copper, the market has priced in 25%. In the short - term, copper may still be weak, and the implementation of the 50% copper tariff will cause strong price fluctuations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. Guinea's implementation of the bauxite index has raised concerns about cost expansion. In the short - term, the near - month contracts will continue to be strong, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 20,000 range. The off - season effect of aluminum alloy is more obvious [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 1.12%, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.08%. The Indonesian government will evaluate the work plans and budgets of the mining and coal industries. The cost support of stainless steel has shifted down slightly, and the overall inventory remains high. The demand for nickel sulfate in July has increased slightly month - on - month. In the short - term, it will still fluctuate, and be vigilant against overseas policy disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macroscopically, overseas focuses on tariffs, and some economies have made counter - measures. Domestically, China's June social financing and export data are positive. In terms of inventory, LME, Comex, and domestic social inventories have all increased. The demand is still weak due to the off - season. The 50% copper tariff may cause price fluctuations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices rose, while Shanghai aluminum prices were weak. The implementation of the bauxite index in Guinea and the low inventory support the price. The off - season effect of aluminum alloy is obvious [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and SHFE nickel prices fell. The Indonesian government's evaluation of the industry and the decline in nickel ore prices have an impact on the market. The cost of stainless steel has decreased, and the demand for nickel sulfate has increased slightly [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the inventory of LME, COMEX, and social inventory increased. The import loss of the active contract widened [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory of LME and SHFE increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory of alumina increased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price and spot price decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased slightly, and the inventory of LME increased while SHFE decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience [51]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon [50][51]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst focusing on lithium and nickel [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - BZ futures maintain a large premium, reflecting the contango structure of high - inventory pricing. The strong downstream demand for pure benzene has led to a decline in pure benzene port inventory from its high level. However, the supply pressure from South Korea's exports to China and high domestic production have kept the pure benzene processing fee in a weak consolidation. For styrene, the port inventory has further increased, and the EB basis has further declined. Domestic EB maintains high - level production, while the demand is dragged down by the low operation rates of EPS and PS [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Relevant data includes pure benzene's main basis, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene, the trend and basis of the EB main contract, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [8][12][17] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - It involves data such as naphtha processing fee, the price difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, and the import profits of pure benzene and styrene [21][23][28] 3. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's East China port inventory and operation rate are presented, along with styrene's East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operation rate [34][36][39] 4. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Data on the operation rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS are provided [45][49][50] 5. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Information includes the operation rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [53][57][64] Strategies - Unilateral: Observe pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and Inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods and far - end BZ2603 futures, conduct reverse arbitrage when the price is high [4] - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ price difference when it is high [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with cost and demand in a state of game - playing, and the market is affected by tariff policies. The expected trend for both PE and PP today is oscillatory [4][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production - increase statement on July 5, with production increasing for the fourth consecutive month. It's the off - season for agricultural films, downstream demand is weak, and there is still pressure from new capacity coming on stream. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7260 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -24, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.4 tons (+5.4), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and production pressure still exist. With neutral industrial inventory, PE is expected to oscillate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while new capacity launches and weak demand are bearish factors [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show a contraction range for PMI and an increase in OPEC production. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and the current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (-0). The overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 113, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.6%, considered bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.1), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to oscillate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory suggest an oscillatory trend for PP today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, and weak demand is a bearish factor [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown various trends. The capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 11.0% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on July 15, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 natural block was 5200, with a weekly increase of 50; the latest price of Tianjin 72 export (in US dollars) was 1010, with no daily or weekly change. For silicon manganese, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5600, with a weekly increase of 50, and the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650, with a weekly increase of 80 [2]. - The report also presents historical price trends of various silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese products from 2021 - 2025, including market prices in different regions, export and import average prices, and contract closing prices [3][4][6]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including weekly production and procurement data from Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. Demand - The report shows the demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, such as the estimated demand for silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons) and the procurement volume of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7]. - It also includes data on the production of related downstream products, such as the production of crude steel, metal magnesium, and stainless - steel crude steel [4]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in different regions, and data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days [5]. - For silicon manganese, the inventory - related data from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast quantity, and inventory average available days, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (in tons) [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are shown, such as electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials like semi - carbonated manganese ore and lanthanum charcoal, and production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [5][6][7]. - The profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including spot profit, profit after converting to the main contract, and export profit [5][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy, and gives corresponding price trend forecasts and operation suggestions [2][4]. Summary by Metal Category Copper - **Price Movement**: The LME copper price fell 0.2% to $9643 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78020 yuan per ton. The US copper tariff will take effect on August 1, and if strictly enforced, the price difference between US copper and LME and SHFE copper is expected to widen, and the prices of LME and SHFE copper will be under pressure [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 900 tons to 109625 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons (SMM caliber). The SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 1100 to 34000 tons [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The copper raw material shortage situation remains, but the marginal impact is weakening. After the US copper tariff is implemented, the supply outside the US is expected to increase. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate weakly. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 77500 - 78600 yuan per ton, and the LME copper 3M is 9500 - 9720 dollars per ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: The LME aluminum price fell 0.21% to $2596 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20405 yuan per ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 35000 tons to 501000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 5000 tons to 406000 tons [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The aluminum ingot inventory remains low, but the supply is expected to increase. Considering the off - season and reduced exports, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 20200 - 20550 yuan per ton, and the LME aluminum 3M is 2560 - 2620 dollars per ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.03% to 17096 yuan per ton, and the LME lead 3S fell by $10.5 to $2017 per ton [5]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 55100 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 249400 tons [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is gradually improving. The LME lead price is strong, but the increase of SHFE lead is expected to be limited [5]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.55% to 22231 yuan per ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell by $38 to $2739 per ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 93100 tons [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the zinc price is bearish. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate. The SHFE zinc main contract is expected to move between 22231 yuan per ton [7]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price fluctuated. The supply is at a low level, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply and demand are balanced [9][10]. - **Inventory**: The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9644 tons as of July 11, 2025 [10]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, the tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic tin price is expected to operate between 250000 - 280000 yuan per ton, and the LME tin price between 31000 - 35000 dollars per ton [10]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price fell under pressure. The contradiction in the nickel market is concentrated in the ferro - nickel production line [11]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory - related information for analysis is provided in the text [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The ferro - nickel price is expected to continue to fall, and the nickel price has a certain short - selling value. The operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan per ton, and the LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16000 dollars per ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 1.11%, and the LC2509 contract rose 3.42% [13]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory - related information for analysis is provided in the text [13]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The supply is expected to remain high, and the short - term price is affected by news and demand expectations. The operating range of the LC2509 contract is 65200 - 67700 yuan per ton [13]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index rose 0.77% to 3124 yuan per ton [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts increased by 4800 tons to 23400 tons [16]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The alumina capacity is in excess. The price is expected to be driven up in the short - term but will be anchored by the cost in the long - term. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2850 - 3300 yuan per ton [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12715 yuan per ton, up 0.04% [18]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 1167500 tons, a 0.93% increase [18]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The supply exceeds demand in the short - term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [18]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.63% to 19805 yuan per ton [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 1400 tons to 27000 tons [20]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the price is expected to face resistance [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium term, the prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) are bearish. In the short term, the commodity atmosphere is warm, and the prices of plastic PP are oscillating. After the macro - sentiment weakens, they are still regarded as bearish [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In the third quarter, PP and PE still face significant production capacity release pressure, which eases in the fourth quarter. The expected new production capacity of standard - grade PE in the second half of the year is only 500,000 tons, with a reduced pressure compared to the first half. However, supply is not tightening as the high - level maintenance in the first half may lead to a rebound in the operation rate of existing facilities in the second half. Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, and there are no strong factors to reverse the weak demand, so there is a lack of upward momentum [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral Trading**: In the medium term, prices are bearish. In the short term, due to the warm commodity atmosphere, plastic PP prices are oscillating and will turn bearish after the macro - sentiment weakens. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily on the sidelines. - **Options**: Temporarily on the sidelines [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Inventory**: This week, both PE and PP inventories increased. PE total inventory rose by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons, and PP total inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [6][8]. - **Production Capacity Release**: In the second half of the year, the estimated new PP production capacity is 3.15 million tons, and the new PE production capacity is 2.05 million tons for the 2509 contract and 800,000 tons for the 2601 contract. The release of linear low - density polyethylene (LL) production capacity slows down significantly in the second half of the year [9]. - **Demand**: The demand for PE and PP is still weak year - on - year. The PE pipe industry's operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 29% this week, and the BOPP and injection - molding industries of PP saw their operating rates drop by 1 percentage point to 58% and 44% respectively [12][13][14]. 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various PE products and related raw materials showed different changes. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and the oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 [24]. - **Sino - US PE Relationship**: China is a net importer of PE. In 2024, the apparent demand for PE was 41.61 million tons, with an import volume of 13.85 million tons and an import dependence of 33%. The import volume from the US was 2.39 million tons, accounting for 17.2% of total imports and 5.7% of apparent demand [27]. - **Profit**: The profits of different production methods of PE, such as oil - based and coal - based, showed different trends. The oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 week - on - week [24]. - **Inventory**: PE inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons [8]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PE operating load is 74.68%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous period [46]. - **Import and Export**: This week, the PE import market continued the situation of weak supply and demand. The supply of import offers and quotas remained low, and the demand was weak, resulting in a light trading atmosphere [55]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various PP products and related raw materials also changed. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.48% week - on - week, and the PP CFR China price remained unchanged [66]. - **Sino - US PP Relationship**: China is a net importer of PP. In 2024, the apparent demand for PP was 39.37 million tons, with an import volume of 367,000 tons and an import proportion of 9%. The import volume from the US was 39,400 tons, accounting for 1.07% of total imports and 0.1% of apparent demand. The cost - end propane of PP has a high dependence on the US [69]. - **Profit**: The profits of different production methods of PP, such as oil - based, CTP, and PDH, showed different trends. The oil - based PP profit increased by 58 [66]. - **Inventory**: PP inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [8]. - **Production and Operation**: This week, the operating load rate of domestic PP plants was 77.42%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week and 3.76 percentage points from the same period last year [87]. - **Import and Export**: In terms of imports, overseas suppliers were cautious, and the offers were few and higher than the domestic market level, resulting in few transactions. In terms of exports, due to sufficient supply from the Middle East and emerging regions, China's PP exports had difficulty in getting large - volume orders [94][96].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling 1.63% to close at 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Shanghai copper continued to decline last week, with the main contract falling 1.63% to 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and downstream consumption entered the off - season. Domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons [4]. b) Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons. The bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][18]. c) Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees were at a low level [21]. - **CFTC Positioning**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [23]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [26]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [29]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.