Core Insights - The article discusses the rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is influencing market dynamics and trading signals in the gold order flow [1] Group 1 - The anticipation of interest rate cuts is leading to increased volatility in the market, with both bullish and bearish sentiments competing [1] - The analysis of order flow is highlighted as a method to capture trading signals amidst this volatility [1]

SHMET 网讯： 6月国内精炼锌库存先增后降，处于往年同期偏低位，交割前后上期所锌仓单量有所累积，整体重心较5月有升，上周上期所锌库存43633吨，仓单量6372 吨；截止6月26日，SMM七地锌锭社库7.95万吨，短期内变化不大。6月中旬，各地锌锭现货升水还偏强，近日却是快速回落的态势，锌价快速走高，下游 畏高慎采，贸易商为出货而下调升水。LME锌库存延续4月底以来的降势，由4月中的高位19.5万吨降至最新的11.9万吨，注册仓单在6月中旬有一次攀升， 最新为9.1万吨，总体水平略偏低；关键指标LME0-3锌现货由前期持续小幅贴水已收复至平水附近，谨防出现类似于铜的挤仓风险。 据ILZSG最新报告，今年4月全球锌矿产量101.92万吨，环比微降0.6%，同比增加9.7%；1-4月累计产量393.7万吨，累计同比增长5.07%。一季度，海外矿山 稳步释放产量，Tara矿复产、Kipushi重启均同比有增量，Antamina矿产量虽同比小降但年度指导目标明显提升，还有OZ矿贡献增量。国内，5月SMM锌精 矿产量环比增长9.2%至32.5万吨，季节性恢复中，1-5月累计产量139.84万吨，同比下降3.4%。进 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.30） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：持有卖出 MO2507-P-5800 虚值看跌期权、IM2507 多单 核心逻辑： 1.中美双方进一步确认了框架细节，取消了部分限制，利多权益市场情绪。伦 敦会谈后，中美双方团队保持着密切沟通。经批准，双方进一步确认了框架细节， 中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请，美方将相应取消对华采取的一系列 限制性措施。 2.国内方面，基本面回归偏弱现实，政策提振内需预期逐步兑现。央行等六部 门联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，支持政策提前落地。随 后，国家发展改革委表示将于今年 7 月份下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金。进 一步提振权益市场。 中期观点：偏强 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1 策略早餐 3.国常会定调，进一步强化企业科技创新主体地位，强调以"十年磨一剑"的 坚定决心，加快推进高水平科技自立自强，科创板块有望延续涨势，IC 或 IM 继续 占优。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：震荡偏强 参考策略：T2509 或 TL2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic precious metal futures experienced a decline, while international precious metals saw an increase in prices, indicating a divergence in market trends [1][2]. Price Movements - As of June 30, the main contract for Shanghai gold was priced at 767.58 CNY per gram, reflecting a decrease of 0.63% - The main contract for Shanghai silver was priced at 768.58 CNY per kilogram, with a decline of 0.54% - In contrast, COMEX gold was priced at 3306.10 USD per ounce, marking an increase of 0.61% - COMEX silver reached 36.44 USD per ounce, up by 0.75% [1][2]. Market Expectations - Weak U.S. economic data has heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a 92.5% probability of a cut in September, and an anticipated total reduction of 65-75 basis points for the year [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that more time is needed to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, while consumer confidence data showed a decline in inflation expectations, further supporting rate cut speculation [4]. Recent Trends - Last week, COMEX gold prices fell by 2.90% to 3286.10 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 1.50% to 768.64 CNY per gram - The probability of maintaining interest rates in July is at 81.9%, with an 18.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a cumulative 76% probability of a total cut of 25 basis points by September [5].

Macroeconomic Overview - Last Friday, spot gold experienced a significant decline of 2%, reaching a nearly one-month low, with a weekly drop of 2.8%, marking two consecutive weeks of losses [1] - On Monday, gold prices showed resilience by rebounding after hitting a low, indicating a market struggle between risk aversion and risk appetite [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a key factor influencing market sentiment [1] - The U.S.-China rare earth trade agreement and the G7 tax agreement have boosted global stock markets, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe haven [1] - Economic data, including a decline in U.S. consumer spending due to tariff policies, has intensified expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 92.5% probability for a cut in September [1] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Iran and Israeli strikes in Syria, have heightened risk aversion, providing long-term support for gold prices [1] Dollar Index - Last Friday, the dollar index showed a downward trend, with a high of 97.479 and a low of 96.966, closing at 97.228 [2] - The market experienced a slight rebound in the morning but faced pressure later, ultimately closing with a bearish candlestick [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance around the 99.40 area, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] - Key support levels to watch include the 96.50 area, which is the lower edge of a downward channel [2] Gold Market - Last Friday, gold prices overall declined, with a high of 3327.78 and a low of 3255.68, closing at 3274.43 [4] - The market tested weekly support levels, resulting in a bearish weekly close [5] - The focus for short-term trading is on the 3300 level, which is critical for determining future price movements [7] Euro/USD - Last Friday, the Euro/USD pair showed an overall upward trend, with a low of 1.1680 and a high of 1.1753, closing at 1.1719 [6] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, supported by the 1.0850 level on the monthly chart [6] - Key resistance levels to monitor include 1.1710, which is crucial for short-term trading strategies [6] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data and events to watch include the European Central Bank forum, UK GDP, Swiss KOF economic leading indicators, and U.S. Chicago PMI [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll data is a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, reflecting labor market health and influencing global asset pricing. The upcoming June data will further validate the cooling pace of the labor market and impact the Fed's interest rate expectations for September [2]. Labor Market Indicators - The unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls showing an increase of 139,000 jobs in May, despite a downward revision of 95,000 jobs from previous data. The labor department's survey methods have raised concerns about data interpretation, particularly regarding potential overestimation of job creation [3][8]. - The market anticipates June non-farm payrolls to show an increase of 120,000 jobs, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Wage growth is expected to slow, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [6][10]. Institutional Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts an increase of 140,000 to 160,000 jobs for June, while Wells Fargo is more pessimistic, forecasting only 115,000 new jobs. The market median expectation is for an increase of 130,000 jobs [10]. - The disparity in predictions highlights differing views on the labor market's resilience, with some institutions emphasizing the impact of tariffs and government hiring freezes on employment [10]. Historical Data Review - Historical data shows a trend of slowing job growth, with March's initial figure at 228,000 jobs, revised down to 117,000 in April, and May's figure at 139,000. This indicates a pattern of deceleration in job growth, while wage growth remains relatively stable [8]. Market Impact and Strategies - The non-farm payroll data significantly influences the gold market, with expectations of job growth above 200,000 and an unemployment rate below 4.2% likely to strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance, negatively impacting gold prices. Conversely, lower job growth and a higher unemployment rate could boost expectations for rate cuts, benefiting gold [12][13]. - The upcoming ISM manufacturing PMI data is also crucial, as a rebound could alleviate recession concerns and positively correlate with non-farm payroll performance [15]. Key Events and Data - The Senate's vote on the "Big Beautiful Bill" and statements from Federal Reserve officials will be closely monitored, as they may provide insights into the Fed's stance on inflation and employment ahead of the non-farm payroll release [16][17].

长安期货有限公司 投资咨询业务资格（陕证监许可字[2012]101号） OPEC+增产消息再现，油价或维持弱势 原油周评 2025年6月30日 范磊（F03101876，Z0021225） 目录 操作思路 行情回顾 基本面分析 观点小结 1 2 3 4 01 操作思路 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 CONTENTS 02 行情回顾 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 行情回顾 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 操作思路 (SC主力合约K线走势图) 操作思路： 上周油价在地缘因素降温的情况下 极速回吐前期的风险溢价，整体录 得明显的跌幅存在；预计本周时间 市场或逐步平复情绪，回归交易供 给侧宽松前景的逻辑，价格或较难 出现明显的反弹，建议关注区间 【470-495】元/桶，操作上多以 短差布局为主，可谨慎逢高沽空； 同时本周建议关注美国6月劳动力 市场数据变动、制造业表现、以及 后续OPEC+增产的相关消息。仅 供参考。 资料来源：文华财经，长安期货 行情回顾： 上周油价在周初时间出现明显的跌 幅，主要是受到了伊以冲突平息的 影响，市场在短期内迅速回吐了大 量的前期风险溢价，导致油价大幅 跳水回落；随后市场的交易逻 ...

| TG国贸期货 | 日度策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/06 | 布给公馆言: /0001 | 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 当前国内外消息面较为真空,股指经历强势突破后,在情绪和流 | | | 动性的驱动下进一步走强的概率较高,后续关注宏观增量信息对 | 股指方向的指引。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 農汤 | 宏观金融 | 空间。 | | | 市场风险偏好改善,金价短期或承压;但关税不确定性仍高企, | 農湯 | 真金 | 金价或难持续下挫,料震荡运行。 | | | | 银价短期震荡为主。 | 震荡 | 日银 | 近期美联储多位官员发表鸽派言论,市场风险偏好回升,叠加海 | 看多 | 镇司 | | 外挤仓行情发酵, 短期铜价偏强。 | 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回升,叠加电解铝库存 | म | 低位运行,铝价偏强运行。 | | | | 美联储降息预 ...

沪铜日评20250630: 国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比陷增 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 投资策略 | 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 变量名称 | 2025-06-27 | 2025-06-26 | 2025-06-19 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | | 收盘价 | 79920 | 78890 | 78310 | 1.030.00 | | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 成交量(手) | 131756 | 77300 | 63400 | 54, 456.00 --- | | | | 持仓量(手) | 215705 | 191140 | 175704 | 24, 565. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 25346 | 23696 | 44816 | 1, 650.00 | | | | SMN 1#电解铜平均价 | 80125 | 78940 | 78680 | 1,185.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货开贴水 | 沪铜县 ...

t》 - 我 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月30日 星期- Z0015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80125 | 78940 | +1185.00 | 1.50% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 110 | ୧୧ | +45.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80070 | 78865 | +1205.00 | 1.53% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેટ | રેર | +40.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 80045 | 78880 | +1165.00 | 1.48% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 30 | 5 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | Taes | 1452 | +513.08 | 35.34% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 240.67 | 319.83 | - ...