Core Viewpoint - The current geopolitical tensions and rising gold prices highlight gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with domestic gold prices reaching a historical high of 1030 yuan per gram, indicating potential for significant market fluctuations ahead [1]. Market Performance - The focus is on the upcoming US December CPI data, which will directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and thus the short-term direction of gold prices. As of the latest update, London gold is priced at $4584.07 per ounce, slightly down from previous trading, while domestic gold prices are also showing upward trends [3]. - Recent trends show gold prices fluctuating but generally maintaining a strong upward trajectory, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.40% to $4608.80 per ounce. Factors driving this increase include delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran [3][4]. Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold has entered the fifth wave of an upward trend, with resistance levels identified at $4550 and $4600, while support is noted at the $4405-$4395 range [4]. Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic gold market is exhibiting stronger momentum compared to international markets, with physical gold prices rising in retail and banking sectors. For instance, Lao Feng Xiang's gold price increased by 2.07% to 1428.0 yuan per gram [6]. Investment Trends - Gold ETFs are gaining popularity among retail investors due to their convenience and low costs, with a notable increase in holdings. The long-term trend of central banks accumulating gold remains unchanged, with significant purchases from emerging market central banks, providing a solid support base for gold prices [8]. - Analysts are divided on future trends; a lower-than-expected CPI could renew rate cut expectations, boosting gold prices, while a higher-than-expected CPI may reinforce concerns about persistent inflation and high interest rates, potentially pressuring gold prices [8]. Future Projections - HSBC forecasts that gold prices could rise to $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 due to escalating geopolitical risks and debt issues. The weakening of the dollar's credibility amid monetary expansion and fiscal deficits is also seen as a factor driving gold's value [10]. - The current market environment necessitates caution among investors, with recommendations to adopt a strategy of gradual accumulation of gold assets, such as gold bars and ETFs, without leverage [10]. Investor Behavior - There is a noticeable divergence in investor behavior, with institutional investors reducing holdings in gold ETFs while retail investors are buying in at current price levels, reflecting differing risk preferences and market outlooks [12]. - Gold's strategic value as a "last means of payment" is increasingly recognized in the context of a global trust crisis in currencies, reinforcing its role as a reliable asset during turbulent times [12].

住房指数环比上涨0.4%，同比上涨3.2%，是推动月度CPI上涨的最大单一因素，其中业主等价租金与实 际租金均环比上涨0.3%，异地住宿环比涨幅达2.9%。能源指数环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.3%，管道燃 气服务环比大涨4.4%，同比涨幅高达10.8%，而汽油价格环比下降0.5%，同比下跌3.4%，部分抵消了能 源服务的上涨压力。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月13日电 (王晓伟）美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布数据显示，2025年12月美国城市消费者 价格指数（CPI-U）经季节性调整后环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.7%，与11月同比涨幅持平，通胀水平保 持稳定。核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.6%，显示剔除波动因素后的物价走势 温和。 12月食品指数环比上涨0.7%，同比上涨3.1%。其中，家庭食品与外出就餐价格同步环比上涨0.7%，家 庭食品同比上涨2.4%，外出就餐同比涨幅更高达4.1%。细分品类中，乳制品环比上涨0.9%，其他家庭 食品环比上涨1.6%，而肉类、家禽、鱼类和蛋类指数环比微降0.2%，鸡蛋价格环比大幅下跌8.2%。 环比上涨的品类包括娱乐（1.2%，创1993 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. December CPI met expectations, while core inflation was slightly lower than anticipated, with the unadjusted core CPI annual rate recorded at 2.6%, matching the previous value but below the expected 2.7% [1] - Following the CPI data release, U.S. stock index futures surged, with all major indices turning positive [1] Group 2 - International gold and silver prices experienced a rapid increase, with spot gold rising by 0.34% and spot silver increasing by 2.5%, while New York silver futures saw an intraday gain of 3% [2] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index briefly fell by 20 points, currently reported at 98.95, with non-U.S. currencies collectively strengthening; the euro rose over 20 points against the dollar, the pound increased by 30 points, and the yen fell approximately 30 points against the dollar [6] Group 4 - The market is likely to view the December CPI data as a one-time disturbance, which may not significantly alter current expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 [7]

Group 1 - The core inflation rate in the U.S. for December remained at 2.6%, matching the previous value but lower than the expected 2.7% [1] - Following the CPI data release, U.S. stock index futures rose sharply, with all major indices turning positive [2] - International gold and silver prices saw a quick increase, with spot gold rising by 0.34% and spot silver increasing by 2.5% [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term drop of 20 points, currently reported at 98.95, while non-U.S. currencies collectively strengthened [10] - The market is likely to view the December CPI data as a one-time disturbance, which may not significantly alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 [11]

当地时间1月12日，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）发布通知，决定改变黄金、白银等贵金属期货合约的保 证金设定方式，由此前按固定金额收取，改为按合约名义价值的一定比例计算。根据新规，部分非高风 险组合（Non-HRP）黄金合约的保证金比例（Outright Rates）将调整为名义价值约5%。这是芝商所在 近一个月内的第四次保证金调整，直接提高了交易者的资金成本与杠杆门槛。 国内市场方面，上海黄金交易所在不到一个月时间内，连续三次发布风险预警。商业银行方面也迅速响 应。工商银行近期将其积存金业务的风险等级上调至C3（平衡型）。对此，景川解释称，由于黄金价 格波动率已大幅上升，远超历史平均水平，且此前出现过较大回撤，导致原风险等级（C2）客户出现 浮亏后投诉增加。工行上调风险等级是为了使产品风险与客户承受能力相匹配，符合监管关于适当性管 理的要求。他进一步指出，此举也是为了防止在价格急涨时发生大规模赎回，导致银行被动平仓的风 险。 银河期货贵金属分析师王露晨表示，短期来看，在监管政策强化下，贵金属热潮可能会有所降温，价格 波动有望趋于理性。监管政策收紧将对贵金属市场产生两方面影响，一是提高交易成本，抑制投机性交 易， ...

【黄金期货行情表现】 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，通胀问题仍是他最关心的经济问题，他还称，在更广泛的不确定性 中，就业市场仍处于低雇佣、不解雇的模式。"通胀仍然过高，"他称。"必须将其控制住，我们需要高 度聚焦，确保我们所做的一切都能为此做出贡献。" 美国总统特朗普1月8日称，作为美国三军统帅，"我不需要国际法"。他的"道德标准和意志"是其在全球 范围内指挥军事行动的唯一制约因素。 美国国会预算办公室预计，美国GDP增速将在2026年加快至2.2%，2026年PCE通胀率为2.7%，2028年为 2.1%。美国失业率将在2026年降至4.6%，并在2028年进一步降至4.4%。2026年劳动力市场反映出劳动 力需求增加，劳动力供给增长乏力。美联储利率将在2026年第四季度降至3.4%。 【机构观点】 短期来看，鲍威尔刑事风暴增加对美联储独立性担忧，美最新非农就业数据表明美国劳动力市场增长动 能减弱，市场对美联储今年晚些时期的降息预期强化；地缘政治风险激发市场避险需求，支撑金价上 涨。美联储降息周期、全球央行购金和地缘政治冲突对金价形成坚实的中长支撑。 1月13日，沪金主力暂报1027.18元/克，涨幅1.0 ...

（原标题：黄金股走强，黄金股ETF、黄金股票ETF、黄金股票ETF基金涨超3%） 金价新高，带动港股黄金股继续上涨，招金矿业、紫金矿业、中国黄金国际均创历史新高。 黄金概念股走强，明牌珠宝涨停，湖南白银触及涨停 A股市场黄金概念股走强，明牌珠宝涨停，湖南白银触及涨停，晓程科技涨超8%，山金国际、福达合金涨超6%，国城矿业、白银有色、南矿集团 涨超5%。 ETF方面，黄金股ETF、黄金股票ETF、黄金股票ETF基金涨超3%，2026年以来涨超12%。 黄金股ETF是股票型ETF，投资于在港A股上市的黄金相关公司，权重股聚焦金矿股，如紫金矿业、山东黄金、中金黄金等，也包含少部分珠宝零 售公司，如老铺黄金、周大福等。 消息面上，在美联储主席鲍威尔抛出"正在接受刑事调查"的重磅消息后，交易员将其解读为美国总统特朗普意图削弱美联储政治独立性的信号， 风险偏好迅速降温，金银价格走高。现货黄金昨日盘中创出历史新高价4630美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓较前日增加6.24吨。截至2026年1月12日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1070.8 ...

政府停摆的统计扭曲尚未消散：劳工统计局在11月和12月数据中用假设填补租金及部分价格缺口，导致 住房成本、核心商品增速偏离常态，分析师普遍建议在正式修正前谨慎解读月度波动。 牛津经济研究院的伯纳德.亚罗斯预计12月CPI环比或达0.4%(高于共识)，并指出"趋势需待年中才能显 现"。EY-Parthenon美国首席经济学家格雷戈里.达科表示，2026年初通胀仍将微升但不会飙升，关税压 力短期持续但不阻碍长期回落。 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 工行纸黄金于2026年1月13日报价1029.76元/克，日内小幅回调0.59%，但仍处于历史高位区间，与沪金 期货、黄金t+d走势高度同步，受国际金价突破4600美元/盎司及美联储降息预期强化驱动。技术面呈现 强势多头趋势：价格持续运行于5日与20日均线之上，形成多头排列，布林带开口向上，短期支撑位约 1020元/克，阻力位聚焦1035–1040元/克。RSI维持在65附近，未达超买阈值，MACD红柱虽缩量但未翻 绿，动能仍具延续性。市场情绪受工行1月12日上调积存金风险等级影响，投资者谨慎情绪升温，但实 物与账户黄金需求未见明显回落。当前核心矛盾为趋势延续与政策调控之间的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a significant increase in holdings to 1,070.8 tons, reflecting a rise of 6.24 tons from the previous trading day, amid heightened geopolitical risks and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On January 12, spot gold prices surged, reaching a historical high of $4,629.93 per ounce before closing at $4,597.21, marking an increase of $87.87 or 1.95% [5]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly regarding an investigation into Chairman Powell's statements about the Fed's renovation project [5]. - Silver also experienced a strong performance, hitting a record high of $84.62 per ounce, driven by similar market concerns regarding the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Expectations - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data eased expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, limiting the upside potential for precious metals [6]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, leading to a consensus that a rate cut in January is unlikely, although two cuts are still anticipated by the end of the year, with the first likely in June [6]. - Market reactions to upcoming inflation data could influence gold prices, with a hotter reading potentially exerting downward pressure, while a softer reading may support further price increases [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown strong upward momentum, confirming a bullish trend, with the price maintaining an upward channel over the past month [7]. - The MACD indicator remains in positive territory, indicating increasing bullish momentum, while the RSI is in the overbought zone, which may limit short-term gains [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,625, with a successful breakout potentially leading to further price increases, while support is established at $4,400 [7][8].

【要闻速递】 匈牙利外长西雅尔多12日表示，若英国和法国向乌克兰派遣军队，将给北约带来与俄罗斯发生直接冲突 的严重风险。作为乌克兰的邻国，匈牙利存在被拖入战争的可能性。 欧盟负责防务的高级官员库比柳斯12日表示，如丹麦提出请求，欧盟可为格陵兰岛提供安全支持。他同 时警告，若美国以军事手段夺取格陵兰岛，将意味着北约"走向终结"。 今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于1035附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂1027.68元/克，涨 幅1.06%，最高触及1035.34元/克，最低下探1025.10元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 格陵兰岛自治政府12日发布声明，强调在任何情况下都无法接受美国接管。声明指出，格陵兰岛是丹麦 王国的一部分，也是北约的一部分，其防务应通过北约来实现。格陵兰岛自治政府将与丹麦一道，推动 在北约框架内开展防务事务。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金主力合约AU2602于2026年1月12日强势上行，日内最高触及1031.30元/克，收盘报1024.78元/克，涨 幅2.36%，创历史新高，受中东与俄乌地缘紧张及美联储降息预期升温（12月非 ...