流动性方面，港股通科技ETF嘉实盘中换手20.96%，成交7065.44万元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至8月21日，港股通科技ETF嘉实近1年日均成交 6475.89万元。 截至2025年8月22日 13:34，港股通科技ETF嘉实(520670)上涨3.02%；成分股方面，华虹半导体涨超11%，中兴通讯涨超10%，黑芝麻智能、中芯国际等跟 涨。 港股通科技ETF嘉实紧密跟踪恒生港股通科技主题指数，恒生港股通科技主题指数（「HSSCITI」）旨在反映能通过港股通买卖，业务与科技主题相关的香 港上市公司之表现。 伴随着龙头中报业绩的验证、美联储降息预期的强化、Al商业化进程的加速，市场对于港股科技板块的信心逐步回归，资金开始提前蓄力伏击，关注其补涨 潜力。国投证券表示，从60日滚动收益率差值来看，历史上创业板指和恒生科技两者存在明确交替轮动关系，当创业板指涨幅领先恒生科技20pct时，多数 意味着恒生科技指数相对将迎来补涨，目前两者收益率差值已经来到18pct。 申万宏源证券认为，港股指数层面的阶段性跑输只是对前期上涨较快的阶段性盘整，而伴随着中报季业绩披露的逐渐展开，此前业绩预期较低的板块有望重 新获得市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 21, the main nickel contract declined. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The nickel ore price remained flat, the domestic nickel iron production was expected to decline in August while Indonesia's increased, and the domestic electrolytic nickel production was expected to increase. The demand for ternary materials, stainless steel, alloys, and electroplating was stable. The overall nickel fundamentals were loose, and with the repeated expectations of Fed rate - cuts, nickel prices were expected to fluctuate within a range. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 21, the main stainless - steel contract declined. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The stainless - steel production was expected to increase in August, but the terminal demand was weak. The high - carbon ferrochrome price remained flat. Considering the large influence of macro - sentiment, although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for prices to return to fundamentals and there was cost support. Stainless - steel prices were expected to fluctuate with macro - factors, and it was recommended to wait and see [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 21, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 119,700 yuan/ton, 119,830 yuan/ton, 120,030 yuan/ton, and 120,290 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 230 yuan/ton, 230 yuan/ton, 270 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 90,715 lots (+27,039), and the open interest was 102,385 lots (+51,529) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of nickel beans was 122,300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and the inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged [2] Stainless Steel Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 21, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 99,736 lots (-50,000), and the open interest was 138,810 lots (+3,046) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi), 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi), and other stainless - steel products remained mostly unchanged [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 617,500 tons (-11,600) [2] Market News and Analysis - **Macroeconomic News**: The US August S&P Global Composite PMI reached a new 8 - month high, reducing the bets on two Fed rate - cuts this year. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, and the number of continued claims increased by 30,000 to 1,972,000 [2]. - **Nickel Market Analysis**: The supply side showed stable nickel ore prices, reduced nickel ore arrivals last week, and inventory accumulation at ports. The demand side had increased production of ternary materials and stainless - steel plants, and stable demand for alloys and electroplating [2]. - **Stainless Steel Market Analysis**: The supply side had an expected increase in stainless - steel production in August, while the demand side had weak terminal demand. The cost side had a rising high - nickel pig iron price and a stable high - carbon ferrochrome price [2]

从技术面来看，根据最新的四小时图表，金价目前徘徊在3340美元附近，处于支撑与阻力的夹缝地带，下方支撑区间集中在3290至3268美元，一旦跌破这一 带，可能加速下探至更低水平；而上方的关键阻力则位于3430至3452美元区域，该区间与长期下降趋势线重叠，构成强压，若能有效突破，则有望进一步冲 击3500美元关口。换言之，黄金正处于区间震荡的中枢，短期方向尚未明朗，突破与跌破都可能引发趋势性行情。 整体而言，黄金的多空力量正在平衡中博弈，降息预期虽仍存在，但激进宽松的幻想被数据打破，美元反攻的条件逐渐形成；而和平希望则让黄金避险属性 削弱。短线走势将高度依赖即将到来的美联储信号和全球经济数据。如果周五鲍威尔讲话继续维持鹰派立场，金价可能难以突破上方阻力区间，甚至会重新 走弱；但若释放对通胀容忍度的提升，坚定年内多次降息，黄金则可能迎来新一轮反弹。未来几日的市场动态将决定黄金能否摆脱当前困境，这不仅关乎短 期交易机会，更关乎避险资产在全球资金配置中的地位。 ▲ATFX图 黄金价格在周三启动了较为明显的反弹，因美元转为走弱。此前市场一致认为美联储将在9月重启降息周期，甚至押注年内累计三次25个基点的宽松，但随 着 ...

镍与不锈钢日评20250822:"反内卷"情绪变化快、波动大 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-14 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 119700.00 | 119930.00 | 121000.00 | -230.00 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | J | 119830.00 | 120060.00 | 121200.00 | -230.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | -270.00 | 收盘价 | 120030.00 | 120300.00 | 121340.00 | | | | | 120290.00 | 120510.00 | -220.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 121530.00 | 1 | 119830.00 | 119930.00 | 121200.00 | -100.00 | ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：黑色系集体走弱 短期矿价跟随运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 观点：外围宏观偏向于积极，国内政策增量处于储备期，后期货币政策以及财政政策依旧 存在增量预期，但短期更多交易产业基本面。铁矿石供给增速超预期，需求端保持韧性，整体 供需关系由平衡偏紧向平衡转换，短期价格跟随运行。 有色金属：于梦雪 后期关注/风险因素：阅兵限产政策、美联储降息预期、供给回升速度。 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 8 月 22 日 逻辑：近期宏观面扰动减弱，"反内卷"情绪回落，市场交投重心回归产业基本面，成材 端表需持续偏弱、碳元素盘面估值回归，铁矿石供需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound of consumer - side inflation in the US reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. Although the EU intends to promote a peace agreement among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, continuous gold purchases by global central banks may limit the downside space of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors wait for price dips to initiate long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 21, 2025, the futures closing price was 775.12 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 2.44 yuan and a weekly decrease of 0.68 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 31,854 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 14,440. The spot closing price was 771.66 yuan/gram, and the trading volume and open interest of spot Shanghai Gold T + D also changed. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 1.78, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 3.46 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The futures closing price was 9162 yuan/kg, with a daily decrease of 42 yuan and a weekly decrease of 42 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 203,755 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 11,580. The spot closing price was 9144 yuan/kg, and the trading volume and open interest of spot Shanghai Silver T + D also changed. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 16, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 18 [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The futures closing price was 3383.50 dollars/ounce, with a daily decrease of 8.70 dollars and a weekly decrease of 23.50 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 11,003 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 8,184. The London gold spot price was 3364.40 dollars/ounce, and the holdings of SPDR and iShare gold ETFs also changed [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The futures closing price was 38.10 dollars/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.20 dollars and a weekly decrease of 0.45 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 6,909 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 18,281 [1]. - **Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) all changed. For example, the ratio of Shanghai futures gold to Shanghai futures silver was 84.60, with a daily increase of 0.31 and a weekly decrease of 0.85 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **US Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: The US Department of Justice pressured to remove Fed Governor Cook, and Trump urged her to resign. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars of mainly short - term treasury bonds in the third quarter to replenish the cash account. The usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero, which may gradually reduce the bank reserve scale. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, causing the US July PPI and core CPI annual rates to rise. The Fed's expected number of rate cuts has been reduced to September/October [1]. - **US Economic Data**: The US August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 58.3, unexpectedly reaching a three - year high. The inflation pressure increased, and the US labor market cooling was obvious. The number of initial jobless claims increased by 11,000, and the number of continued claims reached a four - year high [1]. - **Global Central Bank Policies**: The European Central Bank temporarily suspended rate cuts, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2.8%. The eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. The eurozone, Germany, and France August manufacturing PMIs were all higher than expected and the previous value, so the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction after continuing to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, and the earliest may be in October [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Due to the rebound of US consumer - side inflation reducing the Fed's expected rate - cut times and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, the downside space of precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to initiate long positions. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The Fed's rate cut expectations have cooled, and global electrolytic copper inventories are oscillating upwards. However, due to fiscal easing in many countries around the world leading to inflation expectations, Shanghai copper prices may remain volatile. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support levels and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3] Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - For the Shanghai copper futures active contract on August 21, 2025, the closing price was 78,540, a decrease of 100 from the previous day; the trading volume was 43,058 lots, a decrease of 13,080 lots; the open interest was 128,034 lots, a decrease of 7,831 lots; and the inventory was 25,157 tons, a decrease of 66 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,800, an increase of 30 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 260, an increase of 130; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 60, unchanged; the spot premium/discount in North China was -50, an increase of 10; and the spot premium/discount in East China was 50, a decrease of 15 [2] - The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 30, an increase of 20; the spread between the first continuous and the second continuous contract was 20, unchanged; the spread between the second continuous and the first continuous contract was 10, an increase of 10 [2] - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,724.5, an increase of 4 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 156,350 tons; the spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract was - 81.01, an increase of 9.74; the spread of the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract was - 171.62, a decrease of 5.14; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0765, a decrease of 0.01 [2] - The closing price of the COMEX copper futures active contract was 4.448, an increase of 0.02 from the previous day; the total inventory was 271,696 tons, an increase of 1,753 tons [2] Industry News - Indonesian copper concentrate exports have reached 65% of the approved quota as of mid - August, and are expected to account for 90% of the quota this year [2] - Due to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin from August 20 to September 3, freight vehicle controls have tightened market logistics, and the upcoming centralized maintenance period of upstream smelters has led to a tight supply of electrolytic copper spot in North China [2] - Codelco will lower its 2025 copper production guidance target. Due to the accident at the El Teniente copper mine, the refined copper production of this division is expected to decrease by 33,000 metric tons, and the copper sales profit will decline by $233 million. The economic loss caused by the production cut is $340 million [2] - Jianfa Shenghai plans to invest 12.15 billion yuan (Jianfa holds 51%), and the project is expected to be put into operation in May 2026, with an annual production of 600,000 tons of cathode copper and other products [2] - First Quantum has launched a $1.25 - billion expansion project at its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia [2] Industry Operation - The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China has increased compared to last week. The operating rate of China's refined copper rod (recycled copper rod) production capacity has increased (decreased) compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has decreased (decreased), and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has increased (increased) [3] - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased (increased) [3] - The order volume (operating rate) of China's copper enameled wire has decreased (decreased) compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper enameled wire enterprises have decreased (decreased) [3] - The operating rate (production volume) of China's copper plate and strip has decreased (decreased) compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper plate and strip enterprises have decreased (remained flat) [3] - The operating rate of China's copper tube has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have increased (decreased) [3] - The operating rate of China's brass rod has increased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have decreased (decreased) [3] Investment Strategy - Affected by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, the operating rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises in August may decline (increase, decrease, decrease) month - on - month. Specifically, the operating rates of electrolytic copper rods, copper plate and strip, copper foil, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the operating rates of recycled copper rods, copper wire and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decline month - on - month [3] - Domestic electrolytic copper traders have no pressure to sell and are reluctant to cut prices significantly, while downstream processing enterprises have weak demand and weak spot purchases [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1][7][8] - **LPG**: Take profit on long positions [1][11][13] - **L**: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - **PP**: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - **PVC**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [1][25][28] - **PX**: Bullish, hold long positions [1][30][32] - **PTA**: Bullish, hold long positions [2][34][37] - **MEG**: Bullish, hold long positions [2][39][41] - **Methanol**: Bullish, look for buying opportunities on 01 contract [3][43][45] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish, hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish, lightly short [5][52][54] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][56][59] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][61][64] 2. Report's Core Views - **Oil**: Short - term rebound due to inventory decline and new sanctions on Iran, but long - term downward trend due to geopolitical easing and supply surplus [1][7][8] - **LPG**: Pay attention to oil price changes at the cost end, take profit on long positions as the upstream oil supply exceeds demand [1][11][14] - **L**: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastics have positive fundamental expectations, and it is advisable to try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - **PP**: Follow the chemical sector's rebound, but the supply is still under pressure. Try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - **PVC**: Warehouse receipts increase, and there is pressure on the near - term contract. Reduce short positions at low prices [1][25][28] - **PX**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policies are favorable. Hold long positions [1][30][32] - **PTA**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and macro - factors are positive. Look for low - buying opportunities [2][34][37] - **MEG**: Total supply increases, but inventory is low. Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][39][41] - **Methanol**: Fundamentals are weak, but expectations are positive. Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract [3][43][45] - **Urea**: Weak fundamentals, but the export window to India is open. Hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - **Asphalt**: Oil price has room to decline, and supply increases. Lightly short [5][52][54] - **Glass**: Supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][56][59] - **Soda Ash**: Supply remains high, and inventory accumulates. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][61][64] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.29%, Brent up 0.42%, and SC up 0.98% [7] - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Iran and inventory decline led to a short - term rebound, but long - term pressure comes from OPEC+ production increase and weakening demand [8] - **Fundamentals**: Azerbaijan's oil exports decreased, India's imports hit a low, and US commercial crude inventory decreased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 21, the PG main contract closed at 4386 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [12] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil price rebounds, and the valuation is reasonable. Supply increases slightly, and demand from some downstream industries declines [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be wary of the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG [14] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [18] - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastic fundamentals are expected to improve, with increased maintenance and approaching peak demand season [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long at lows, focus on the range of [7300 - 7500] for L [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [22] - **Basic Logic**: Oil price stabilizes, and the chemical sector is strong. Supply is under pressure, but demand in the peak season starts, and prices have support at the bottom [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pullbacks, focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] for PP [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5008 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, export negatives are realized, and inventory accumulates. Supply may increase in the future [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices slightly increase production, demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and inventory is high. Macro - policies are favorable [31][32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6918 - 7020] for PX511 [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, supply - side devices reduce production, and demand is expected to pick up during the peak season. Macro - factors are positive [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, buy put options, and look for buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4840 - 4920] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases slightly, but inventory is low. Demand is expected to rebound during the peak season, and macro - policies are favorable [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, do not chase the market, and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4460 - 4530] for EG01 [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as domestic and overseas devices resume production. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. But there are positive expectations [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract at lows and sell 01 put options. Focus on the range of [2405 - 2445] for MA01 [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the urea main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [48] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases as device maintenance decreases. Domestic demand is weak, but export is good. There is support at the cost end [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions, sell call options due to increased short - term volatility. Focus on the range of [1760 - 1800] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 21, the BU main contract closed at 3464 yuan/ton, up 0.32% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Oil price has room to decline, supply increases, and inventory decreases slightly. Valuation is high [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short, focus on the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1156 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [58] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is under pressure with new production lines expected to start. Demand is weak due to low downstream orders and falling real - estate completion area [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1140 - 1200] for FG [59] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [63] - **Basic Logic**: Supply remains high with insufficient planned maintenance. Demand is mostly rigid, and inventory accumulates [64] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1280 - 1350] for SA [64]

晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-08-22 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空因素分歧，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空因素分歧，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期国内沪胶期货市场处在由供需基本面因素为主导的行情中 ...

dbg markets盾博发现美国资本市场正经历复杂的价格重构，尽管周三标普500指数下跌了0.2%，但该指数距离8月14日 创下的历史收盘高点仅仅只有1.1%的差距。Unlimited Funds首席执行官鲍勃·埃利奥特在电话访谈中指出，当前股市定 价已充分纳入"经济强劲"的预期，不过这种乐观情绪可能将面临现实数据的挑战。 美国投资级债券的iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF本季度迄今下跌了0.1%，而先锋长期国债ETF同期跌幅达 1.3%。相比之下，标普500指数同期实现了3.1%的涨幅。埃利奥特认为，从增长角度来看，尽管当前市场定价似乎暗示 投资者对固收类资产没什么兴趣，但目前债券相对于股票更加能够吸引投资者。 埃利奥特强调，美国移民政策收紧与关税壁垒的抬高，对经济增长构成的拖累远超大而美法案可能带来的刺激效应。 这种判断与目前市场交易态势形成反差，当前的市场定价仿佛预示着增长繁荣即将到来，但多项高频指标却显示目前 的实体经济增速正在放缓。美联储会议纪要指出消费增长放缓和住宅投资萎缩是上半年经济减速的主要原因。 美联储7月政策会议当中，政策制定者明确表示，今年新实施的 ...