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金十数据全球财经早餐 | 2026年1月7日
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2026-01-06 22:59
男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 委内瑞拉和美国就向美出口石油问题进行谈判 英法将在俄乌和平协议达成后向乌克兰部署部队 沙特将向所有外国投资者开放金融市场 消息人士:中方正研究收紧对日稀土出口许可审查 央行定调2026年重点工作:继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 市场盘点 周二,美元指数反弹,最终收涨0.28%,报98.59,创逾两周新高;美债收益率微涨,基准的10年期美债收益率最终收报4.169%,对美联储政策利率敏感的2 年期美债收益率收报3.473%。 受地缘政治紧张局势引发的强劲避险买盘支撑,现货黄金维持涨势,逼近4500美元关口,最终收涨1.04%,报4495.09美元/盎司;现货白银站上81美元关 口,最终收涨6.06%,报81.25美元/盎司,刷新去年12月29日以来的高位。 随着市场权衡全球原油供应充裕的前景,以及美国强行控制马杜罗后委内瑞拉原油产量的不确定性,国际原油回吐上一交易日的涨幅。WTI原油美盘持续 下挫,跌破57美元关口,最终收跌2.22%,报56.86美元/桶;布伦特原油 ...
1月7日收盘:标普指数创新高,道指首次收在49000点之上
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 21:08
北京时间1月7日凌晨,美股周二收高。标普500指数创历史新高,道指亦创新高并首次收在49000点之 上。能源板块继续上扬。交易员在本周多项关键数据公布前仍保持乐观。 道指涨484.90点,涨幅为0.99%,报49462.08点;纳指涨151.35点,涨幅为0.65%,报23547.17点;标普 500指数涨42.77点,涨幅为0.62%,报6944.82点。 周二盘中,道指最高上涨至49509.92点,标普500指数上涨至6948.69点,均创盘中历史新高。 上周美国抓捕委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗后,美国总统特朗普呼吁美国能源巨头投资这个石油资源丰富的国 家,推动能源板块大涨。雪佛龙和埃克森美孚均录得显著涨幅,标普500能源板块创下自7月8日以来的 最大单日涨幅。 Innovator ETFs机构研究与投资策略主管Tom O'Shea表示:"从历史上看,引发重大新闻的地缘政治事件 通常会造成短期波动并导致股价下跌。然而,此次标普500指数在行动后的首个交易日却上涨,能源股 领涨,市场预期美国企业可能从委内瑞拉潜在的基础设施重建中获益。国防股、贵金属和比特币也同步 上涨,表明投资者反应复杂多元。" 周二能源股再度上涨 ...
科技加速重塑价值链 资管大咖共话投资新愿景
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2026-01-06 20:42
在本届大会的圆桌论坛环节,睿远基金总经理饶刚、建银国际资管副总经理(主持工作)李璐、大成国 际董事总经理柏杨、GOLDEN HEN FUND SPC董事长王庭发、全球价值链投资创始人万成水等来自资 管行业的重量级嘉宾齐聚一堂,分享了他们对2026年的前瞻性研判。 日前,由中国证券报主办的"开放 融合 新机——2025海外投资发展大会"在上海举行。大会汇聚了众多 国内外顶尖资管机构的掌门人与资深投资专家,围绕全球宏观经济脉络、产业变革趋势与未来投资布局 展开深度对话与思想碰撞。 展望2026年,全球市场正处在多重周期交织的十字路口:货币政策的差异收敛、财政政策的持续发力、 科技革命的加速迭代以及地缘格局的深刻演变,共同构成了复杂而充满挑战的投资图景。 宏观驱动因素切换 展望2026年,全球资产定价的底层逻辑正在发生微妙而关键的变化。多位与会嘉宾认为,驱动市场的力 量将从过去几年相对单一的货币政策,转向货币政策与财政政策共同主导的新阶段,而科技加速发展作 为强大的结构性力量,深刻影响着长期市场趋势。 饶刚为这一宏观图景定下了基调。他表示:"回望2025年,欧美降息通道和日本加息通道虽然形成了分 化,但从经济总量和 ...
2026年中国人民银行工作会议召开 速览工作重点→
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2026-01-06 19:38
四是稳妥化解重点领域金融风险。强化金融市场监管执法,持续打击金融市场违法违规活动。 五是持续深化金融改革和对外开放。继续优化"债券通""互换通"机制安排。支持上海国际金融中心建 设,巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位,维护香港金融市场的稳定和繁荣发展。发挥好央行间货币互换 作用,便利贸易投资项下人民币使用,推动金融机构改进跨境金融服务。完善人民币跨境使用基础设 施。欢迎更多符合条件的境外主体发行熊猫债。扩大快速支付系统互联范围,推进二维码互联互通合 作。 二是继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考 量,灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具,保持流动性充裕,保持社会融资条件相对宽松,引导 金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡,使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目 标相匹配。畅通货币政策传导机制,发挥好政策利率引导作用,做好利率政策执行和监督,促进社会综 合融资成本低位运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款综合融资成本工作覆盖面,推动明示个人贷款综合融资成 本。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定,防范汇率超调风险。 三是提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效。完善 ...
金融如何为经济稳定增长提供有力支撑
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 17:29
(来源:衢州日报) 转自:衢州日报 2026年是"十五五"开局之年,金融如何为经济稳定增长、高质量发展提供有力支撑?1月5日至6日召开 的2026年中国人民银行工作会议释放一系列政策信号。 中国人民银行表示,2026年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,提升金融服 务实体经济高质量发展质效,着力扩大内需、优化供给,防范化解风险、稳定社会预期,为经济稳定增 长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境。 作为宏观调控的主要政策工具,货币政策对经济运行具有深刻影响。围绕货币政策,中国人民银行工作 会议作出一系列部署:"把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量""灵活高效运 用降准降息等多种货币政策工具""保持流动性充裕""保持社会融资条件相对宽松"…… "这些系统部署,为继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策提供了具体指引。"中国人民银行货币政策司司长谢 光启介绍,尤其在结构方面,要发挥好结构性货币政策工具的激励引导作用,优化工具管理,继续做好 金融"五篇大文章",加力支持扩大内需等重点领域。 对此,会议明确相关安排:进一步完善金融"五篇大文章"政策框架,实施好考核评价制度,加 ...
早盘:美股小幅上扬 道指上涨140点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 15:08
北京时间1月6日晚,美股周二早盘小幅上扬。能源板块连续第二个交易日上涨。交易员在本周多项关键 数据公布前仍保持乐观。 道指涨142.70点,涨幅为0.29%,报49119.88点;纳指涨109.20点,涨幅为0.47%,报23505.02点;标普 500指数涨26.95点,涨幅为0.39%,报6929.00点。 周一美股收高,道指创历史新高。美国抓捕委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗后,美国总统特朗普呼吁美国能源巨 头投资这个石油资源丰富的国家,推动能源板块大涨。雪佛龙和埃克森美孚均录得显著涨幅,标普500 能源板块创下自7月8日以来的最大单日涨幅。 Innovator ETFs机构研究与投资策略主管Tom O'Shea表示:"从历史上看,引发重大新闻的地缘政治事件 通常会造成短期波动并导致股价下跌。然而,此次标普500指数在行动后的首个交易日却上涨,能源股 领涨,市场预期美国企业可能从委内瑞拉潜在的基础设施重建中获益。国防股、贵金属和比特币也同步 上涨,表明投资者反应复杂多元。" 周二能源股再度上涨,雪佛龙、埃克森美孚、哈里伯顿及斯伦贝谢等个股普涨。 尽管委内瑞拉局势紧张,但投资者仍持续加仓股票,几乎未受干扰,推动由科技 ...
1月6日重要资讯一览
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2026-01-06 14:54
(原标题:1月6日重要资讯一览) 重要的消息有哪些 1.2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日—6日召开。会议强调,2026年重点抓好以下工作:继续实施好 适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量,灵活高效运用 降准降息等多种货币政策工具,保持流动性充裕,保持社会融资条件相对宽松,引导金融总量合理增 长、信贷投放均衡,使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。畅通 货币政策传导机制,发挥好政策利率引导作用,做好利率政策执行和监督,促进社会综合融资成本低位 运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款综合融资成本工作覆盖面,推动明示个人贷款综合融资成本。保持人民币 汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定,防范汇率超调风险。 2.2026年全国外汇管理工作会议1月5日至6日在京召开。会议部署了2026年外汇管理重点工作。保障外 汇储备资产安全、流动和保值增值。推进《外汇管理条例》修订,建设更高标准国际收支统计体系,稳 步探索建设"智慧外管",提高外汇管理数智化水平。 3.1月6日,上交所披露,2025年A股股票账户新开户累计2743.69万户,相较于2024年的2499.89万 ...
挑战“中性利率”共识:米兰坚称美联储政策仍过紧 需激进减息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 14:08
来源:滚动播报 美联储理事米兰表示,美联储在2026年需要降息超过一个百分点,并认为当前的货币政策正在限制经济 增长。米兰周二在福克斯商业频道露面时表示:"我认为很难辩称政策已接近中性。我认为政策显然具 有限制性,正在阻碍经济发展。我认为今年降息100多个基点是合理的。"美联储官员上个月连续第三次 下调利率,但暗示短期内不保证会进一步降息。政策制定者在通胀和劳动力市场前景上存在分歧;根据 其最新预测的中值估计,他们预计2026年仅降息一次。米兰发表上述言论之前,其他官员本周表示,利 率目前可能已接近既不促进也不限制经济增长的"中性水平"。 ...
人民银行定调2026年七大重点工作!货币政策延续适度宽松,降准可期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 13:48
货币政策方面,会议强调,继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量,灵活高效运用降准降息等多 种货币政策工具,保持流动性充裕,保持社会融资条件相对宽松,引导金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡,使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和 价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 在上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚看来,2026年货币政策延续"适度宽松"总基调,以促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升为核心目标。整体看,货 币政策将保持流动性充裕和融资条件宽松,为经济高质量发展提供有力支持。 曾刚认为,货币政策后续走势将呈现三大特点:降准降息仍有较大空间,全年可能实施1—2次降准降息操作;工具使用更加灵活高效,国债买卖将常态化, 成为降准的有效补充,中期借贷便利和买断式逆回购用于熨平流动性波动;与财政政策协同发力,同时考虑银行净息差已处历史低位,降息空间相对有限。 七项重点工作中,人民银行还提出多项细化措施。例如,会议指出,建立在特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排,发挥好两项支持资本市场的货 币政策工具作用;稳妥实施好一次性个人信用修复政策;常态长效优化老年人、外籍来华人员支付服务 ...
经济表现待验证,贵金属高位运行
Mai Ke Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 13:35
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In early 2026, the economic performance needs to be clarified, and domestic and foreign policies remain the focus. In 2025, there were concerns in both the US and Chinese economies. In the US, the focus was on the weak employment market and potential consumption risks, while in China, domestic demand was weak in Q3, and the recovery in Q4 under policy guidance needed to be observed. In the new year, the policy highlights affecting the US economy are the continuation of monetary easing and the intensity of subsequent fiscal spending. In China, the focus is on the effectiveness of stabilizing domestic demand and the policy efforts in promoting investment to stop falling and expanding the consumer market. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly more than twice in 2026, currently a preventive rate cut. However, if the employment market weakens more than expected, such as a continuous rise in the unemployment rate, it will prompt the Fed to accelerate the rate - cut pace. Unconventional risks in 2026 come from the attitude of the newly - appointed Fed chair, and the impact of monetary policy in Q1 mainly depends on economic performance. There is an expectation of monetary policy easing in Q1, but it remains to be seen. In China, policies to stabilize growth will be gradually introduced at the beginning of the year. The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in national subsidy funds for consumer goods trade - in programs in 2026 is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. Based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. The risk is that previous consumption demand has been released to some extent, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year growth rate. Later, attention should be paid to the scale of the government's on - budget fiscal deficit, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and local government special bonds during the Two Sessions. At the beginning of the year, policy expectations are strong, but lacking specific data support, and overall sentiment is expected to fluctuate but remain relatively stable [2]. - Precious metals are fluctuating at high levels, and the upward trend has not been broken. Before the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of precious metals, gold and silver, fluctuated significantly, mainly due to some long - positions leaving the market and the adjustment of margins for COMEX gold and silver. After the holiday, with the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and investors re - entering the market, precious metal prices continued to rise in early January, and the previous high at the end of December needs to be broken. The grand narrative logic affecting precious metal prices has not changed. Frequent global geopolitical risks, alleviated but not eliminated tariff risks, dollar credit risks, government debt risks, and the Fed's continued rate - cut rhythm still have a bullish impact on precious metals. After a continuous rise in December, the silver price fluctuated significantly before the New Year's Day holiday, and the market sentiment recovered and became stronger again after the holiday. The mid - term upward trend of COMEX gold and silver has not been broken. The support for the COMEX gold main contract is around 4270 - 4300, and for the silver main contract, it is around 69 - 70. In the short term, the market sentiment after the holiday remains bullish, but the risks are that a too - rapid price increase may trigger another margin adjustment for COMEX gold and silver, and there is short - term pressure from the annual weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Therefore, gold and silver prices still face significant fluctuation risks. In early January, the market is still trading on geopolitical risks and monetary easing expectations. After the geopolitical risks ease, the market's focus will shift to the performance of US economic data and the corresponding changes in monetary policy expectations, which will affect short - term market fluctuations. In conclusion, at the beginning of the year, the gold and silver prices need to re - evaluate the influencing factors to determine the price direction after the short - term consolidation. It is expected to be bullish. The short - term support for the Shanghai gold main contract is 980, and for the Shanghai silver main contract, it is 17000 [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic - The Fed has no significant rate - cut expectation in January, and the market expects the next rate cut to be around March. New economic data in the US will be released in early January, including the ISM manufacturing PMI index, non - farm payroll data, and the unemployment rate. It is expected that the economic data will not affect the January monetary policy decision, and the probability of a rate cut in January is low. However, it will affect the probability of a rate cut in March, which is currently around 50%. As time passes, the expectation of a rate cut in March may change significantly under the influence of US economic data [6]. - US employment data is at risk of weakness, but the degree of weakness needs to be determined. Since the second half of 2025, the US labor market has continued to weaken. The monthly new non - farm payrolls have fluctuated significantly, and there have been months with negative new additions. The unemployment rate has gradually risen from a low of 4.1% in June 2025, especially rising to 4.6% in December. If this unemployment rate persists, it may trigger the Sahm Rule again. Therefore, the unemployment rate performance in the next two months is very important. If it rises further, it may accelerate the Fed's rate - cut pace [9]. - The upward amplitude of inflation is temporarily limited. Although inflation has risen in the second half of 2025, the amplitude is temporarily limited and does not currently affect the monetary policy rhythm. From this perspective, the short - term performance of the employment market has a more significant impact on monetary policy. In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the US CPI and core CPI were 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, down from Q3 [13]. - The US manufacturing PMI index is at a low level. In the second half of 2025, the US manufacturing PMI index was at a low level. Overall, the cyclical pattern of the manufacturing PMI index is less obvious, and it fluctuates at a low level. In terms of inventory, the manufacturing inventory growth rate rebounded slightly in Q3, but the inventory growth rates of wholesalers and retailers declined, and there was no consistent inventory replenishment process. Therefore, it is difficult for the manufacturing industry to have an unexpectedly good recovery. Later, attention should be paid to whether the weakening impact of the previous government shutdown and the continuation of monetary policy easing in Q1 to Q2 will have a positive impact on inventory and the manufacturing industry [16]. - The medium - and long - term interest rates of US Treasury bonds are generally stable and have not declined significantly. Although the Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, driving down the short - term interest rate level, the long - term interest rate level remained generally stable. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest rate fluctuated in a narrow range of 4.0% - 4.2% in Q4. Concerns about the sustainability of the sovereign debt of European and American governments and the weakening of the attractiveness of US Treasury bonds under the dollar credit risk have supported the performance of US Treasury bond interest rates. Precious metals have become more attractive as a safe - haven asset than the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, driving the continuous strength of gold and silver prices in December [20]. - The US dollar index is oscillating at a low level and is expected to gradually break out of the oscillation range. Since the second half of 2025, the US dollar index has stopped its continuous rapid decline and has been oscillating in a narrow range of 96 - 100. Whether the US dollar index can break out of the oscillation range depends on whether the US economy can gradually recover under the influence of monetary easing and whether the US can form a new dominant position to curb the risk of de - dollarization. Currently, such a trend has not been observed, and continuous attention should be paid to the performance of US economic data and whether the US's influence in the Americas region will be further strengthened [24]. - In China, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded in December 2025. After the Sino - US economic and trade relations became tense again in October 2025, the Chinese economy gradually recovered in November and December, and domestic policies also played a role in stabilizing growth. The implementation of policy - based financial tools led to a certain recovery in the manufacturing industry. Based on the December manufacturing PMI index, it is expected that the investment growth rate will recover to some extent. Attention should be paid to the industrial added value, investment, and consumption data to be released in the middle of the month [27]. - It is expected that the total new social financing in 2025 will reach 36 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. The total new social financing in 2025 was relatively large, expected to reach 36 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the 32.3 trillion yuan in 2024. However, the growth structure and investment rhythm affected the annual economic performance. The increase in social financing in 2025 mainly came from local government bonds, and the year - on - year increase in RMB loans decreased. The overall investment rhythm of social financing also showed a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half, with the single - month new social financing in August - October significantly less than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to whether the implementation of policy - based financial tools in Q4 2025 will drive an increase in the credit growth rate [31]. - In Q4 2025, the real - estate sales were weak, and housing prices declined month - on - month. The new and second - hand housing transactions in 2025 were significantly weaker than the same period last year, mainly in Q4. Although real - estate stabilization policies were continuously introduced from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, there were no unexpectedly large - scale reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts. The new and second - hand housing transactions declined in both volume and price compared to the same period last year, which will affect the real - estate investment performance at the beginning of 2026. Therefore, promoting infrastructure and manufacturing investment and stimulating consumption have become the focus of policies at the beginning of the year [34]. - In 2026, the first - batch funds for the trade - in program were released, and the annual investment rhythm is expected to be more even. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Large - scale Equipment Upgrading and Consumer Goods Trade - in Policy in 2026", officially releasing the national subsidy plan for 2026. The first - batch scale of 62.5 billion yuan to support consumer goods trade - in is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. However, based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, compared with the situation in 2025 when most of the funds were invested in the first three quarters, especially the first half, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. Therefore, the smaller first - batch investment scale in 2026 does not mean a reduction in the annual scale. The scope of the trade - in subsidy has changed, and the subsidy standards have been further optimized. There is a new subsidy for purchasing new smart products, and the coverage has been expanded to include "elevator installation in old communities" and "off - line commercial facilities such as commercial complexes". However, the number of household appliance subsidy categories has been reduced from 12 to 6. For the subsidy amount, the car subsidy has been adjusted from a fixed amount to a percentage, the single - piece subsidy ceiling for household appliances has been adjusted from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan, and only first - level energy - consuming products are eligible for the subsidy. The trade - in of electric bicycles and home - improvement consumer goods is no longer included. Overall, the subsidy is still at a certain scale and will help stabilize the consumer market in the new year, in line with the "insisting on domestic - demand - led and deeply implementing the special action to boost consumption" mentioned in the economic work conference. It is expected that the investment rhythm in 2026 will be more stable. The risk is that the implementation of the "two new policies" from the second half of 2024 to 2025 has released some consumption demand, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year consumption growth rate [38][39]. - The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises improved from the end of Q3 to the beginning of Q4 in 2025 but weakened again in the second half of Q4. From July to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises improved, mainly due to the increase in the prices of some commodities driven by anti - involution. In October, the PPI growth rate did not further increase significantly, and the operating income growth rate of industrial enterprises also declined, affecting the profit performance of industrial enterprises. In November, the single - month profit of industrial enterprises was negative, dragging the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to November down to 0.1%, compared with a peak of 3.2% in September [40]. - The RMB has appreciated continuously against the US dollar, and the subsequent economic growth expectation remains the main influencing factor. Since Q4, the long - term Treasury bond yields in both China and the US have remained stable, so the yield spread has not changed significantly. In terms of economic growth expectations, the US has not shown obvious signs of recovery and is performing weakly. In China, investment and consumption have also declined. Therefore, there has been no significant change in economic growth expectations or Treasury bond yield levels. The Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4, while China did not adjust the benchmark interest rate. As a result, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, rising from around 7.12 to around 6.98 [43]. Precious Metals - In 2025, the annual increase in the SPDR gold holdings was significant. In 2025, the holdings of the world's largest physical gold fund, SPDR, ended four consecutive years of negative growth since 2021. The annual increase was about 198 tons, and the year - end holdings reached about 1070 tons. The increase in holdings mainly occurred in several stages: from early March to mid - April, from late May to late June, from late September to mid - October, and from late December [47]. - The annual increase in the SLV silver holdings was significant in 2025. The holdings of the physical silver fund, SLV, have had positive growth for the second consecutive year. In 2025, the increase was about 2068 tons, compared with 772 tons in 2024, which is also the largest annual increase in recent years except for 2020 when the increase was 6099 tons. From the perspective of physical fund holdings, the increase in price has boosted investment demand. However, neither the gold nor the silver physical fund holdings have returned to their previous peak levels. Therefore, there is still room for an increase in holdings. The increase in investment demand is usually complementary to the price trend and reinforces each other. Subsequently, the price trend will still affect the holdings, and an increase in holdings will in turn strengthen the price strength [50]. - The gold inventory in futures exchanges remained generally stable in December 2025. In December 2025, the changes in the COMEX futures inventory and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory were both small, showing a slight increase. However, there were significant changes in the inventories of the two exchanges in 2025. At the beginning of the year, due to market concerns about the US imposing tariffs on gold and silver, the inventory was transferred to COMEX. The COMEX inventory rose from about 550 tons at the end of 2024 to about 1247 tons in early October 2025 and then declined, reaching about 1132 tons at the end of December. The SHFE inventory rose from about 15 tons in May 2025 to 97.7 tons at the end of December [52]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased in December, while the silver inventories in the SHFE and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) increased slightly. The rapid increase in COMEX silver inventory started at the beginning of 2025, rising from about 9800 tons at the end of 2024 to about 16543 tons in early October 2025. At the same time, the maximum decline in the SHFE gold inventory in 2025 was about 900 tons, and it recovered slightly in December but remained at a low level overall. The SGE silver inventory was relatively stable, with a slight increase at the end of 2025 compared to the beginning. The domestic exchange inventories are at a low level, while the COMEX silver inventory is at a multi - year high. Concerns about tariff increases and the US adding silver to the critical minerals list have contributed to the increase in the COMEX silver inventory [55]. - Regarding the COMEX gold futures positions, although the gold price reached a new high at the end of December 2025, the total gold positions and non - commercial long positions increased, but they were lower than the levels at the gold price peak from late September to early October 2025. The non - commercial short positions were generally at a low level, and the market structure remained bullish. However, the non - commercial net long positions at the end of December were lower than those from September to early October, indicating a slightly weaker bullish sentiment [58]. - Regarding the COMEX silver futures positions, in December 2025, the silver price rose unexpectedly. The non - commercial short positions were at a low level and did not strongly resist the upward trend. The non - commercial long positions increased, but the increase was limited. The total positions remained generally stable from mid - November to December [61