这将是央行本月第二次开展买断式逆回购操作。11月5日，央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展7000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月 （91天）。 【导读】央行将开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作 11月14日，央行发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年11月17日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买 断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 | 中国人民银行 | | | | | 货币政策司 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | | | Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | 货币政策 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | 信息公开 | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 17, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance aimed at stabilizing growth and expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will implement a fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding, multi-price reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan with a term of 6 months (182 days) [1]. - In November, there are 700 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos and 300 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing, with the PBOC having already conducted an equal amount of 3-month reverse repos on November 5 [1]. - The PBOC has established a monthly funding injection model, conducting 3-month reverse repos around the 5th, 6-month reverse repos around the 15th, and 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) around the 25th [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The injection of medium-term liquidity through reverse repos helps maintain a stable and ample funding environment, supporting government bond issuance and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply [2]. - The PBOC's larger-scale continuation of reverse repos signals a sustained use of quantity-based policy tools, reinforcing a supportive monetary policy stance [2]. - There is an expectation of a small increase in MLF operations, with 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing in November, indicating a comprehensive approach to liquidity management by the PBOC [2].

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 14 日 星期五 【下周策略】 ◆下周大势研判：震荡巩固 从本周市场来看： 首先，10 月信贷社融增速收敛，企业信贷增速放缓、居民融资 意愿承压。 其次，10 月份经济运行基本平稳，稳中有进态势持续。 最后，政策将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资 条件相对宽松。 总体来看，本周沪指在 4000 点附近震荡整理。10 月信贷社融 增速放缓，企业信贷增长减弱，居民融资意愿仍偏低。10 月经济运 行总体平稳，延续稳中有进态势，但也面临外部环境不确定、内部 结构调整等挑战，经济平稳运行存在压力。不过随着扩内需、稳就 业、稳预期等政策持续发力并落地见效，经济有望实现质的有效提 升与量的合理增长。货币政策方面，在全年 5%左右增速目标预计可 达的背景下，货币政策短期加码的紧迫性降低，重点转向既有政策 的落实与跨周期工具储备。货币宽松方向不变，降准、降息仍可期， 节奏上更侧重"相机抉择"。后续需关注 12 月上中旬政治局会议和 中央经济工作会议的政策定调，以及美联储动向与"十五五"规划 衔接对政策的影响。从技术面来看，当前沪指在 4000 点附近震荡 整理，资金分歧有所加大， ...

Economic Growth and Projections - October economic data indicates a slowdown in growth, with a projected Q4 GDP growth rate of 4.2%[1] - The annual GDP growth target of around 5% is expected to be achieved, with policies focusing on implementation[1] - Anticipated budget deficit rate for next year is expected to remain at 4%[1] Consumer Spending and Retail - Retail sales growth in October decreased to 2.9%, slightly better than the market expectation of 2.8%[2] - Durable goods consumption showed mixed results, with communication equipment sales rising to 23.2% while home appliances fell by 14.6%[2] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival did not generate as much excitement as in previous years, indicating weak consumer demand[1] Industrial Production and Investment - Industrial production growth fell to 4.9%, below the expected 5.5%, influenced by a holiday effect[5] - Fixed asset investment growth declined significantly to -1.7%, lower than the market expectation of -0.8%[3] - Real estate investment continued to weaken, with a year-on-year decline of 14.7% in October[3] Employment and Inflation - The urban unemployment rate improved slightly to 5.1%, better than the expected 5.2%[5] - October CPI inflation rate increased to 0.2%, surpassing the market expectation of -0.1%[6] External Demand and Trade - Export growth turned negative at -1.1% in October, influenced by high base effects and holiday timing[7] - The contribution of net exports to GDP is expected to decline, with a forecasted export growth drop to 3.0% next year[11]

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 冯琳表示："这表明在适度宽松的货币政策带动下，社会综合融资成本下降，有助于激发企业和居民的 内生性融资需求，推动房地产市场止跌回稳。" 在社融方面，今年前十个月，社会融资规模增量累计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元，金融对 实体经济的支撑力度持续凸显。根据民银研究统计，前十个月，政府债券累计发行规模约22万亿元，比 去年同期多近4万亿元；企业发债融资也高于去年同期，二者均对社会融资规模增长形成重要支撑。 温彬认为，今年以来，国债和特殊再融资债券等政府债券发行进度较快、企业债券发行热度较高，在对 社融增长形成重要支撑的同时，也对扩内需、保民生、促发展发挥了积极作用。 从分项来看，10月委托贷款、企业债券融资、外币贷款和企业股票融资等均实现同比多增。其中，10月 委托贷款同比多增1872亿元。冯琳分析称，新型政策性金融工具可能会以股东借款模式进行资金投入， 这在社融中被计入委托贷款。 同时，温彬还指出，从信贷结构看，随着经济向高质量发展不断迈进，增长动能将由基建、房地产等传 统领域向科技创新、绿色低碳等新兴领域逐步转换。与新动能相关的贷款会持续保持较快增速。在扩内 需、大力 ...

Economic Performance - In October, China's industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, with the equipment manufacturing sector showing a significant increase of 8% [1] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China rose by 2.9% year-on-year in October, driven by policies encouraging the replacement of old consumer goods, particularly in communication and cultural office supplies, which saw increases of 23.2% and 13.5% respectively [1] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China increased by 0.2% year-on-year in October, reversing the previous month's decline, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking a continuous increase over six months [2] - The improvement in price data is attributed to macroeconomic policy effects and a balanced supply-demand relationship, indicating a comprehensive enhancement in macroeconomic conditions and industry prosperity [2] Policy Measures - Local governments have allocated 500 billion yuan to enhance fiscal capacity and expand effective investment, with 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools supporting over 2,300 projects, totaling approximately 7 trillion yuan in investment, focusing on digital economy and artificial intelligence [3] - The recent monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and balancing short-term growth stabilization with long-term structural adjustments, reflecting a commitment to support the real economy [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: In November, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The inventory of ferromanganese silicon is rising faster, and the subsequent production pressure is expected to increase. The leading manganese-based enterprises plan to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry by 40%, but the supply did not decline from August to September and decreased slightly in October. On the demand side, the national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue in 2025, and the subsequent crude steel production will continue to decline. Coke profits have little room for significant improvement, and alloys are likely to remain in a loss state. It is expected that the main contract of ferromanganese silicon will fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 5,900 [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main ferromanganese silicon contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend in the weekly chart [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Macro: Hunan Yueyang Pingjiang County introduced new regulations to become the first county in Hunan to fully implement the spot - housing sales system. The central bank's RMB loan balance has reached 27 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock has reached 43.7 trillion yuan. In October, residents' confidence in buying houses continued to decline, and they continued to adopt a wait - and - see attitude [6]. - Overseas: Trump warned that if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs, the US will face an "economic disaster" [6]. - Supply and Demand: Inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 83,000 tons, and on the demand side, hot metal production has declined seasonally. In terms of profits, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 170 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 330 yuan/ton. The final price of ferromanganese silicon set by HBIS Group in November is 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main ferromanganese silicon contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Strategy: It is expected that the main contract of ferromanganese silicon will fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 5,900 [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of November 14, the position of the ferromanganese silicon futures contract is 604,600 lots, an increase of 35,000 lots compared with the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread is 60, an increase of 6 points. The number of ferromanganese silicon warehouse receipts is 19,863, an increase of 5,505. The spread between the January contracts of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon is 258, an increase of 24 points [12][16]. - Spot Market: As of November 14, the spot price of ferromanganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis is - 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 points [24]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Industry: The operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese silicon enterprises is 39.59%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous week. The daily average output is 28,510 tons, a decrease of 330 tons. The weekly demand for ferromanganese silicon in five major steel types is 118,589 tons, a decrease of 2.08% from the previous week, and the weekly supply of national ferromanganese silicon is 199,570 tons, a decrease of 1.14% from the previous week. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese silicon enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, with a total inventory of 346,500 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons [28][32]. - Upstream: As of November 12, the price of South African manganese ore and Australian manganese ore in Tianjin Port remained unchanged. As of November 10, the electricity price in Ningxia remained unchanged, and in Inner Mongolia it decreased by 0.025 yuan/kWh. As of November 7, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.397 million tons, an increase of 1.92%. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore this week is 516,800 tons, an increase of 16% from the previous week, Australian manganese ore is 67,300 tons, an increase of 100%, Gabonese manganese ore is 70,000 tons, an increase of 100%, and Ghanaian manganese ore is 0 tons, a decrease of 100%. As of November 13, the spot production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.16%, and in Ningxia it increased by 0.25%. The spot profit in the northern region increased by 13.09% [39][45][49]. - Downstream: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons from the previous week and 9,400 tons from the same period last year. The final price of ferromanganese silicon set by HBIS Group in November is 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the domestic economic growth continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The injection of 50 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved. Overseas, the US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October, and the employment market's downward risk has increased. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has significantly decreased. - The overall fundamental data in October was weak, with indicators such as exports, social financing, and social retail sales declining to varying degrees. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, with limited room for further monetary easing this year. In the short - term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [101][102]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract rose 0.18%, while the 10 - year T2512, 5 - year TF2512, and 2 - year TS2512 contracts fell 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively. The trading volume of TS and TF contracts increased, while that of T and TL contracts decreased. The open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all decreased [13][30]. - **Performance of Underlying Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 7Y treasury bonds rose by 0.25 - 1.5bp, while the 10Y and 30Y yields fell by 0.4bp and 0.6bp to 1.81% and 2.15% respectively [9]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In October, the expansion of domestic demand policies continued to show results. CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year. PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 2.1% year - on - year. The State Council issued measures to promote private investment. The cumulative social financing scale in the first ten months increased by 3.83 trillion yuan year - on - year. From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. In October, industrial added value increased by 4.9% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.62%, social retail sales increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: From October 1 to 25, the US private sector lost 45,000 jobs. The US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October, and the economic loss caused by the shutdown was estimated at $15 billion per week [35][101]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spread**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and between 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed. - **Contract Spread**: The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year, and between 5 - year and 10 - year contract spreads widened. - **Near - far Month Spread**: The near - far month spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, and 5 - year contracts narrowed, while that of the 2 - year contract widened slightly [43][49][60]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short position of the top 20 positions in the T contract decreased slightly [66]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, and 2 - week Shibor rates rose, while the 1 - month Shibor rate fell. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.47%. The yields of treasury bonds weakened, with 1 - 7Y yields rising by 1.5 - 3.0bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by 1.8bp and 1.4bp to 1.81% and 2.16% respectively [70]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 148.1511 billion yuan, the total repayment was 99.4987 billion yuan, and the net financing was 48.6524 billion yuan [83]. - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0825, up 11 basis points this week, and the spread between offshore and on - shore RMB widened. - **US Bond Yield and VIX**: The 10 - year US bond yield fluctuated, and the VIX index rose significantly. - **A - share Risk Premium**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly [87][93][98]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Outlook**: In October, domestic economic growth continued to slow down, with some economic indicators affected by the external environment. The injection of 50 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved. - **Overseas Outlook**: The US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October. The employment market's downward risk increased, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December decreased significantly. - **Overall Outlook**: The economic data in October was weak, inflation rebounded slightly, and the economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy, with limited room for further monetary easing. In the short - term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [101][102].

Monetary Supply Trends - As of the end of October, M2 growth rate was 8.2%, down from 8.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points[1] - M1 growth rate was 6.2%, down from 7.2%, a decline of 1 percentage point[1] - The M1-M2 gap widened to -2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[1] Deposit Dynamics - Household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 770 billion yuan[12] - Non-financial enterprise deposits fell by 1.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 355.3 billion yuan[12] - Fiscal deposits increased by 720 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.8 billion yuan[12] - Non-bank deposits rose by 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan[12] Credit and Financing - New RMB loans in October amounted to 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan[3] - Social financing increased by 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 432.1 billion yuan, with a month-end growth rate of 8.5%[8] - Corporate loans increased by 350 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 220 billion yuan[5] Economic Outlook - The central bank indicated that the most significant pressure points may have passed, suggesting a potential decrease in the likelihood of rate cuts in the fourth quarter[15] - The cumulative excess savings of households since 2020 is estimated at approximately 2.54 trillion yuan, reflecting ongoing shifts in deposit behavior[14]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with urban areas rising by 0.3% and rural areas declining by 0.2%[12] - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, while non-food prices increased by 0.9%[12] - Core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024, indicating steady demand growth[15] Group 2: PPI Trends - The producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[14] - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise in 2025[20] - Key industries such as black metal mining and coal mining saw price declines narrow or recover, indicating ongoing improvement in PPI[22] Group 3: Policy Implications - The low CPI and PPI levels create room for more aggressive macroeconomic policies, including proactive fiscal measures and moderate monetary easing[5] - Continuous improvement in industrial product prices suggests a stable economic recovery trend[30] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[6]