原来，沃勒已经"反水"不再支持推迟降息，鲍威尔现在也向"沃勒派"的叙事，货币政策从"等等看"迈向 了"可调整"。 上周五晚22：00，受鸽派态度影响金价大 鲍威尔突然急刹车，意外转"鸽"，引发9月降息预期！ 7月FOMC记者会上鲍威尔态度对降息态度强硬，表示担忧贸易冲突导致通胀反弹，暂时不考虑降息。 这一次，在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，鲍威尔一改常态，表示对就业市场形式持悲观态度，这不仅加 强了9月降息25个BP的可能性，更倾向连续性降息。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is conducting a 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in August, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1][2] - The PBOC's actions are aimed at stabilizing market expectations and ensuring ample liquidity, especially in light of rising market interest rates and tightening liquidity conditions [2][3] - The PBOC's monetary policy remains supportive, with a focus on maintaining liquidity to match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Experts predict that the PBOC may implement further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions in the fourth quarter, while continuing to use MLF and reverse repos to inject liquidity [3][4] - The PBOC's recent actions are part of a broader strategy to create a conducive monetary environment for economic recovery, with ongoing monitoring and communication regarding policy measures [3][5] - The international context, particularly the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, may influence the PBOC's future monetary policy decisions [4][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is "oscillation". In the short - term (within a week), the TL2509 variety is expected to oscillate; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it will also oscillate; and on an intraday basis, it is expected to oscillate weakly. For TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. Overall, treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - oscillating operation in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. Last Friday, all treasury bond futures oscillated and sorted, with a slight decline. From a monetary policy perspective, the LPR in August remained unchanged, and the central bank emphasized future implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, mainly in a structural way, reducing the possibility of comprehensive loosening. From a capital preference perspective, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising recently, attracting funds into the stock market due to the profit - making effect, and the trading volume in the stock market has remained high, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further increase in market interest rates is limited, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5]

"预计未来一段时间，央行将继续通过多种货币政策工具，加强对中短期市场流动性的调节，保持流动 性充裕，进一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策。"董希淼表示。 招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼对《金融时报》记者表示，考虑到8月、9月份再 一次迎来年内政府债券发行高峰，本月内央行两次开展买断式逆回购操作，连续多次逆回购操作实现净 投放，并开展MLF操作，以保持银行体系流动性充裕，更好满足政府债券发行等对市场流动性的需 求。 中国人民银行8月22日发布的公告显示，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，8月25日，中国人民银行以固定数 量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作，期限为1年期。 "本月有3000亿元MLF到期，这意味着8月份央行MLF净投放达到3000亿元，符合预期，为连续6个月加 量续作。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，考虑到截至8月22日，央行还开展了3000亿元买断式逆回 购净投放，这意味着8月中期流动性净投放总额达6000亿元，相当于上月的两倍。 ...

"监管层在引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，持续注入中期流动性，体现了货币政策与财政政策之 间的协调配合。"业内人士对智通财经记者表示，8月净投放规模持续扩大背后也受反内卷牵动市场预 期，以及股市走强等因素影响。"近期中长端市场利率普遍上行，银行体系流动性有所收紧。" 8月央行净投放规模扩大 支持银行体系流动性 今日，央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。考虑到 截至8月22日，央行还开展了3000亿买断式逆回购净投放，这意味着8月中期流动性净投放总额达6000 亿，相当于上月的2倍，为2025年2月以来最大规模净投放。 今日央行开展6000亿元MLF操作,期限为1年期。这也是央行连续第6个月加量续作，同时本月央行MLF 净投放达到3000亿。在5月降准释放长期流动性10000亿之后，近三个月中期流动性持续处于净投放状 态，且8月净投放规模显著扩大。 进入月底，流动性摩擦再升级，市场认为波动较往年同期或更为明显，除了月末或出现季节性趋紧之 外，仍需关注非季节性因素的影响，比如股债联动效应对资金的分流和情绪的压制。 一位债券投资员对智通财经记者表示，尽管股市强劲但债 ...

据中国人民银行网站消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，8月25日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元中期借贷便利 （MLF）操作，期限为1年期。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | 货币政策司 | Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | | | 金融科技 | | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | | | 网送文告 | | 办事大厅 | 在线申报 | 下载中心 | 网上调查 | 意见征集 | ぞ野知识 ...

有分析师测算，截至8月22日，央行中期流动性净投放总额已达6000亿元，是上月的两倍，也是2025年2月以来最大规模的中期流动性净投放。该分析师认 为，尽管上半年宏观经济运行稳中向好，但央行仍在延续支持性货币政策立场，通过持续实施中期流动性净投放释放政策信号。 对于后续市场走势，业内普遍认为央行将继续保持流动性合理充裕。央行后续可能继续通过加量续做MLF并结合买断式逆回购操作，向市场注入中期流动 性，市场利率上行空间有限。 根据8月22日公告，央行将于8月25日开展6000亿元MLF操作，实现净投放3000亿元，这是央行连续第六个月加量续做MLF。8月以来，央行通过多次逆回购 操作实现净投放，并开展MLF操作，持续向市场注入流动性。在中长期流动性方面，8月买断式逆回购和MLF净投放量均达到3000亿元，超过7月水平。操 作时点安排也更为灵活，8月买断式逆回购两个期限品种分别于月初和月中投放，MLF投放日也提前至到期日前，与7月集中于月中投放的模式形成对比。 Wind数据显示，本周逆回购到期分布较为均匀，8月25日至29日分别有2665亿元、5803亿元、6160亿元、2530亿元和3612亿元到期。 【环球网 ...

此次央行年会的主题是"货币政策及其挑战"。对于美联储来说，货币政策的挑战主要来自充分就业 和物价稳定的双重目标和双重职责。长期以来，美联储坚定不移地致力于美国国会赋予我们的双重使 命，努力实现货币政策双重目标，促进美国经济可持续发展。 美联储曾经走过的重要历史 遇到的重要问题 2008年国际金融危机之后，美国经济复苏已经进入到了第十一个年头，成为有记录以来最长的经济 增长周期。此间，失业率持续下降，到2018年初美国失业率已经接近半个世纪以来的最低点；劳动参与 率不断提高，虽然少数族裔的失业率仍然高于整体失业率，但非裔美国人的失业率已经降至6%，为自 1972年开始跟踪这一数据以来的最低水平；蓝领工人工资增长较快，尤其是对于那些生活在中低收入社 区的蓝领工人来说更是如此。 值得关注的是，在这个长达十一年之久的增长周期中，美国通胀率一直保持稳定。当经济增长放缓 时，物价水平没有大幅下降；当经济较快增长时，物价水平也没有大幅上升。在2018年的大部分时间， 美国通胀率保持在2%左右，非常接近美联储的通胀目标水平。不过，2019年以来美国通胀率略低于 2%。 为了实现物价稳定和充分就业的双重目标，美联储一直在努力。 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has shown a clear intention to support liquidity management since August, with significant reverse repos and medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations scheduled [1][3] - A total of 6000 billion yuan MLF operation was announced on August 22, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased MLF operations, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan [3][5] - The total net injection of medium-term liquidity reached 6000 billion yuan as of August 22, which is double the amount from the previous month and the largest since February 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The central bank has implemented multiple measures to stabilize market fluctuations, including announcing operation sizes and durations before reverse repos and MLF operations [4] - The coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy is evident, as the central bank continues to inject medium-term liquidity to support credit expansion and meet financing needs [4][5] - Future monetary policy will likely continue to focus on maintaining ample liquidity through various tools, with limited upward pressure on market interest rates [5]

Group 1 - The central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation next week, with a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan in August, marking six consecutive months of increased liquidity [1][2] - The total net liquidity injection for August has reached 600 billion yuan, the highest monthly figure since February, due to the combination of MLF and reverse repos [1][2] - Analysts indicate that the continuous increase in MLF reflects a proactive monetary policy aimed at stabilizing market expectations and supporting credit issuance [2][4] Group 2 - The focus of monetary policy is shifting towards "implementation and precision," with an emphasis on effective execution and flexibility, while maintaining ample liquidity [3][4] - The probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the short term is low, with the fourth quarter potentially being a critical window for further policy adjustments [3][5] - The bond market remains stable, supported by the central bank's liquidity management and the absence of significant redemption pressures [2][3]