二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 3 月 11 日 宏微观多视角看国债期货的持续防守 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 报告导读： 摘要： 从去年年中开始，我们率先提出了国债期货已脱离牛市，未来将维持震荡偏空，建议逢高套保的 观点。至今，我们的大趋势观点并未改变，并会在特定时点提示缩利差等短期交易策略。 从政策看，两会对于货币政策表述延续适度宽松的基调，将物价回升作为今年工作重心，强调未 来将更重视"价格"工具而非"数量"，证明当前经济在高层战略视角下已脱离最低迷的时期。 央行降息空间有限，更倾向于选择结构化而非总量工具，叠加今年消费品价格上行与商品的轮 动，几大因素将共同制约国债期货的反弹力度。 从基本面看，过去几年的大拖累项基建与地产很难持续超预期下行，螺纹钢的底部有夯实的迹 象。考虑到历史上黑色与国债期货的长期负相关性较强，国债期货的风险可能仍将持续。 从资产配置角度看，人民币资产荒已经结束，因此国债期货超长端用于对冲风险偏好的功能性大 大减弱。 从席位角度拆解，当前整体投机力度也已显著不如 24 年以及 25 年年初，多空逐渐变得更加均 衡。 综合来看， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, with short - term focus on end - of - month policy signals. Influenced by the Middle East conflict, the LPR remains unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [2] Summaries by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; monthly PPI has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a 6.99 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 1.58% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with a 0.50% month - on - month increase and a 5.88% growth rate; manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a 0.30% month - on - month decrease and a 0.61% decline rate [9] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 98.93, with a 0.21 month - on - month increase and a 0.21% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8778, with a 0.010 month - on - month decrease and a 0.15% decline rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with a 0.01 month - on - month increase and a 0.63% growth rate; DR007 is 1.44, with a 0.01 month - on - month decrease and a 0.50% decline rate; R007 is 1.55, with a 0.01 month - on - month decrease and a 0.55% decline rate; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.52, with a 0.01 month - on - month increase and a 0.33% growth rate; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a 0.00 month - on - month increase and a 0.33% growth rate [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents figures on the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation funds trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, and the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties [12][13][17] III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - Figures related to the money market are provided, including the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase transactions, and the issuance of local government bonds [26][27][24] IV. Spread Overview - The report shows figures on the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread in different combinations such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][32][34] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract are presented [41][43] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract are shown [45][57] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract are provided [53][54] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract are presented [60][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk appetite declined rapidly due to geopolitical influence and then recovered during the domestic Two Sessions. The A-share market is testing for stabilization. [3] - For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, hold the bull spread portfolio constructed with put options. [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Indicators - **Market Overview**: This week, the four major index futures contracts declined with the index. IF and IH fell 1.32% and 1.75% respectively, while IC and IM fell 3.60% and 3.64% respectively. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 seats, the net short positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 7155, 402, 8025, and 3673 lots respectively. As of Friday, the optimal roll - over contracts for IF, IH, IC, and IM were the 2604 contracts, and the optimal annualized roll - over costs were 2.47%, 0.58%, 4.11%, and 5.42% respectively. [10] - **A - share Performance**: This week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index fell 1.07%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 1.54%, the CSI 500 Index fell 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 3.64%. [11] - **Basis and Cross - variety Ratios**: The basis of the four major index futures contracts oscillated neutrally, and the long - side strength weakened relatively. After March, it showed a downward trend due to dividend expectations. The current basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts were - 14.44, - 2.70, - 37.73, and - 37.06 points respectively. The futures contract ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of CSI 1000/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 decreased, and the value style was more stable during the decline. [12] - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most of the Wind primary industry indices declined this week, while the energy sector rose against the trend. The top - rising sectors included materials, energy, and public utilities, with increases of 8.03%, 6.31%, and 5.50% respectively. The top - falling sectors included communication services, finance, and daily consumption, with decreases of 3.20%, 1.10%, and 0.18% respectively. [15] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the four major index futures significantly contracted. [16] - **Spot - Futures Price Difference Trend**: The basis oscillated and declined, and the seasonality gradually emerged. [21] - **Inter - period Spread Trend**: The report provides the inter - period spread trends of IF, IC, IH, and IM. [26][27][29] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The risk appetite was under pressure, and the valuations of small - and medium - cap stocks declined relatively. [34] - **Positions of the Top 20 Seats and Market Trends**: The long - to - short ratios generally declined. [42] - **Short - side Roll - over Costs**: The annualized short - side roll - over cost of the next - month contract was the lowest. [50] 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamental Tracking - **Domestic High - frequency Macroeconomic Tracking**: In January, M1 and M2 increased by 4.9% and 9.0% year - on - year respectively, with the growth rates accelerating by 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the corporate sector's credit increased significantly year - on - year. [60] - **Real Estate**: From January to December 2025, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and national real - estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, with the decline still expanding. The land transactions in first - tier cities significantly rebounded, and the commercial housing transactions rebounded slightly at the beginning of 2026. [60][61][68] - **Consumption**: In January, consumer demand continued to recover. CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year - on - year. PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. [60] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49% (previous value: 49.3%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5% (previous value: 49.4%). The steel tire operating rates continued to rise, while automobile sales declined in January. [60] - **Foreign Trade**: In December, China's exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 114.1 billion US dollars. The freight rate indices showed an upward trend. [60] 3.3 Liquidity Tracking - **Liquidity Indicator Tracking**: On March 6, the SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32%, unchanged from last week. The LPR remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. This week, the central bank conducted 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, and due to the maturity of 1525 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the net withdrawal for the whole week was 1247.4 billion yuan. This week, A - share funds had a cumulative net active sell - off of 406.796 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume of A - shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.62 trillion yuan, the margin trading balance decreased, the short - selling balance increased, and the net outflow of equity ETF funds was 4.6 billion yuan. [94]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the Iran - US conflict, global risk preferences are disturbed, with rising oil prices, weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, and a rapid rise in US Treasury yields. The domestic two - sessions continue moderately loose monetary and more active fiscal policies. Attention should be paid to the war situation and risk control [4]. - The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. Geopolitics boosts gold and silver prices in the short - term, but inflation expectations and weak US economic data suppress precious metal prices. A cautious bearish view is taken on precious metals [9]. - Due to the Middle East war, copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, zinc prices may break downward, lead prices are expected to stop falling and recover, nickel prices will fluctuate, tin prices will fluctuate widely, lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate in a range, alumina prices will fluctuate widely, stainless steel prices will rise in a shock, and casting aluminum alloy prices will remain strong [12][14][16][17][18][20][21][24][25][27]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, iron ore prices will fluctuate, coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or slightly rebound in the short - term and are optimistic in the long - term, glass prices will fluctuate in a range, soda ash prices will fluctuate with the coal - chemical industry, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices may have short - term rebound opportunities, and industrial silicon and polysilicon prices will fluctuate [30][32][35][38][39][40][43][46][48]. - Rubber trading should be flexible, crude oil has a bearish strategic configuration, methanol should take profit at high prices, urea should be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene should be observed on the sidelines, PVC may rebound in the short - term, ethylene glycol may have inventory reduction expectations, PTA may have valuation increase space, PX has a good medium - term pattern, polyethylene can be short - sold on rallies, and polypropylene's long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [54][56][58][60][62][64][66][68][72][74][77]. - Pig prices may remain weakly stable in the short - term, egg prices may be stable with partial narrow - range adjustments, soybean and rapeseed meal prices should be observed on the sidelines in the short - term, oil prices are bullish in the medium - term, sugar prices may rebound, and cotton prices may rise if downstream starts up well [80][82][85][87][91][93]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Iran's parliamentary speaker says no cease - fire is sought, Trump says conditional negotiation with Iran is possible; the National Internet Emergency Center issues a risk warning for OpenClaw; storage chips and precious metals rise, and some car companies try to raise prices; Industrial Foshan's 2025 revenue is 902.887 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 48.22%, and net profit is 35.286 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 51.99% [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: IF: 6.96%/5.44%/8.68%/6.49%; IC: 6.01%/5.89%/11.20%/8.33%; IM: 13.22%/9.71%/16.30%/11.40%; IH: 0.44%/0.43%/1.63%/3.34% [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have different changes; China's January - February exports and imports increase, and the trade surplus is 213.62 billion US dollars; Middle East oil production cuts up to 6.7 million barrels per day; the central bank conducts 3.85 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 52 million yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and the bond market may be pressured by inflation. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver rise; US API crude oil inventory is lower than expected, and US non - farm payrolls decrease; Trump and Iran's parliamentary speaker have different stances on negotiation and cease - fire, and Iran may lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. Geopolitics and inflation expectations affect prices. A cautious bearish view is taken, with Shanghai gold's reference range of 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver's of 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Crude oil and precious metals rise, driving up copper prices. LME and domestic warehouse inventories change, and the spot basis changes [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East war provides emotional support. The copper supply is tight, and prices are expected to rise in the short - term. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 100800 - 102800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 12900 - 13300 US dollars/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Crude oil fluctuates, LME aluminum's cancelled warrants increase, and aluminum prices rise. Warehouse inventories and spot basis change [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East war affects supply, and domestic downstream production resumes. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 24600 - 25800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 3350 - 3500 US dollars/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rise slightly. Warehouse inventories and basis change [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is weak, and the Iran conflict has little impact on supply. Zinc prices may break downward and will fluctuate widely [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead production and demand are weak, but prices are at the lower end of the shock range. They are expected to stop falling and recover [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise slightly. Spot premiums and raw material prices change [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium - term, nickel prices are supported by policies. In the short - term, they will fluctuate. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 120000 - 160000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel is 16000 - 20000 US dollars/ton [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rise. Supply is tight, and demand is in the recovery stage [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is bullish on tin, but supply and demand are marginally loose. Tin prices will fluctuate widely. The reference range for domestic tin is 370000 - 450000 yuan/ton, and for overseas tin is 47000 - 54000 US dollars/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rise. Spot and futures prices change [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran situation eases, and the lithium market may range - fluctuate. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 150000 - 175000 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Over - inventory and supply factors suppress prices. They will fluctuate widely. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise. Spot prices and warehouse inventories change [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Market purchasing warms up, and prices are expected to rise in a shock. The reference range for the main contract is 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rise slightly. Warehouse inventories and contract spreads change [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cost and demand factors support prices, which are expected to remain strong [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices will fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The key lies in inventory digestion and demand verification [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fall slightly. Warehouse inventories and basis change [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas supply is volatile, and demand is weak. Prices will fluctuate in the short - term [32]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal and coke prices fall. Spot prices and basis change [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, prices may fluctuate or slightly rebound. In the long - term, they are optimistic [35][38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: Glass prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Demand improves slightly, and prices will fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 1040 - 1130 yuan/ton [39]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Soda ash prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and prices will fluctuate with the coal - chemical industry. The reference range for the main contract is 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton [40]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices fall, and ferrosilicon prices rise slightly. Spot prices and basis change [41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East war affects market sentiment. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may have short - term rebound opportunities [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply and demand may increase in March, and prices will fluctuate or rebound [46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Polysilicon prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply and demand increase, but inventory reduction is limited. Prices will fluctuate [48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil and butadiene prices fall, affecting rubber prices. Tire production and inventory change [50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly and set stop - losses. Consider buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [54]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices fall [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a bearish strategic configuration, do long - short operations on different oil spreads [56]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices change. Spot and futures prices change [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit at high prices [58]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices change. Spot and futures prices change [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - allocate urea [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices fall, and styrene prices rise. Supply, demand, and basis change [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe on the sidelines [62]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fall. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices may rebound in the short - term, but beware of risks [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply may decrease, and inventory may reduce. Be cautious of over - rising [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA may not enter a de - stocking cycle. Valuation may rise, but beware of over - rising [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [70][71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX will enter a de - stocking cycle in March. Valuation may rise, but beware of over - rising [72]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: PE prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - sell on rallies for the LL2605 - LL2609 contract [74]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: PP prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [77]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices vary. Market supply and demand change [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pig prices may remain weakly stable in the short - term. Short - sell on rallies for the near - term and observe the far - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices vary. Market supply and demand change [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices may be stable with partial narrow - range adjustments. Short - sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to cost support for the far - term [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean import and production data change [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe on the sidelines in the short - term [85]. Oils - **Market Information**: Indonesia may restart the B50 policy, and palm oil production, export, and inventory data change [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Bullish in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data in different countries change [88][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound. Participate in long positions on dips [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton production, export, and inventory data change [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to downstream start - up. Buy on dips [93].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Geopolitical disturbances continue to suppress precious metal prices, with inflation expectations also contributing to this trend. Recent geopolitical events in the Middle East have led to significant oil price increases, creating uncertainty that affects precious metals [1] - Despite weak U.S. employment data and economic performance, expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve after geopolitical conflicts subside remain, while central bank gold purchases continue [1] Group 2: Copper - The unexpected weak U.S. non-farm payroll data has boosted expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for copper prices amid liquidity tightening pressures from U.S.-Iran conflicts [2] - Supply constraints are evident as copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) continue to decline, while demand is recovering as companies resume operations post-holiday, leading to a significant increase in downstream replenishment intentions [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has raised concerns about supply shortages, pushing LME aluminum prices to a nearly four-year high [2] - Supply disruptions are frequent, with Qatar Aluminum Industries halting production due to gas supply issues and Bahrain Aluminum facing transportation obstacles due to regional conflicts [2] Group 4: Tin - The supply-demand situation for tin is weak, with macroeconomic factors increasing price volatility. Progress in water extraction at Myanmar mines and the resumption of exports from Indonesia have led to marginally eased supply conditions [2] - Downstream enterprises are cautiously purchasing due to high inventory levels and uncertainties surrounding AI chip export regulations, which may suppress market sentiment [2] Group 5: Energy Metals - Demand for lithium remains strong, with continuous inventory reductions observed post-holiday, while production is on the rise. The expected reduction in export tax rebates for battery products may lead to front-loaded battery demand [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supplies, while downstream demand is cautious. Cobalt companies are extending their reach into electric new energy sectors, enhancing competitive barriers [3] Group 6: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to strategic premiums and supply-demand mismatches, with strong overseas demand and smooth cost transmission contributing to this trend [4] - The price of uranium has increased to $90 per pound in February, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap [4] - Tantalum prices have surged due to supply shortages from mining accidents in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with emerging industries like AI servers and semiconductors driving terminal demand [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The equity market is experiencing significant volatility due to external geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a sharp decline in global risk appetite and market downturns [2][3][9] - Despite the initial panic, the equity market shows resilience, with indices rebounding after sharp declines, indicating a rational market response to geopolitical developments [2][3][11] - The government work report emphasizes a stable and pragmatic approach for 2026, with a focus on consistent monetary policy, which is expected to provide reassurance to the market [2][4][11] Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - The report suggests maintaining confidence in the market despite current turbulence, as the likelihood of prolonged large-scale conflict is low, and the impact of geopolitical tensions is expected to diminish over time [3][11] - There are structural opportunities in the innovation and technology sectors, particularly in computing and communications, which are expected to benefit from government support and upcoming earnings reports [5][12] - Dividend-paying sectors may also present investment opportunities as risk-averse capital may flow into these areas amid geopolitical uncertainties [12] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is becoming more attractive as global risk appetite declines, with funds flowing from equities to bonds, supported by a loose monetary policy that enhances liquidity [5][34] - Short-term bonds are recommended as a more flexible investment choice in the current environment, given the increased appeal of the bond market [34] Group 4: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market has shown upward trends driven by rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, but there are concerns about potential price corrections if tensions ease [6][41] - The long-term outlook for commodities remains positive, driven by inflationary pressures and a global shift towards lower interest rates [41]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and closed higher. Trump's hint that the Iran war is about to end pushed oil prices sharply down from a historic high, leading to a sharp rebound in Asia - Pacific stock markets on Tuesday. Investors' concerns about long - term tight oil supply, stagflation risks in the global economy, and potential disruptions to central bank monetary easing have eased. However, the future evolution of the US - Iran conflict remains uncertain, but its impact will gradually weaken. Currently, the domestic macro - economy is resilient, with a moderate price level, and the central bank is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. With clear policy support for aggregate demand and technological innovation, stock indices have strong support. In the short term, stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range [3] - Since the logic of the medium - to long - term upward trend of stock indices still exists, a bull spread strategy can still be considered for options [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Charts 1. Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF Options - Figures include the trend of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF, historical volatility, option position PCR, option at - the - money implied volatility, option implied volatility curve, and option at - the - money implied volatility cone [14][9][10] 2. Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF Options - Figures cover the trend of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF, historical volatility, option position PCR, option at - the - money implied volatility, option implied volatility curve, and option at - the - money implied volatility cone [15][18][10] 3. Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF Options - Figures involve the trend of Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF, historical volatility, option position PCR, option at - the - money implied volatility, option implied volatility curve, and option at - the - money implied volatility cone [27][29][39] 4. CSI 300 Stock Index Options - Figures consist of the trend of CSI 300 stock index, historical volatility, option position PCR, option at - the - money implied volatility, option implied volatility curve, and option at - the - money implied volatility cone [40][42][50] 5. CSI 1000 Stock Index Options - Figures include the trend of CSI 1000 stock index, historical volatility, option position PCR, option at - the - money implied volatility, option implied volatility curve, and option at - the - money implied volatility cone [52][55][56] 6. Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF Options - Figures cover the trend of Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF, historical volatility, option position PCR, option at - the - money implied volatility, option implied volatility curve, and option at - the - money implied volatility cone [62][65][73] 7. Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF Options - Figures involve the trend of Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF, historical volatility, option position PCR, option at - the - money implied volatility, option implied volatility curve, and option at - the - money implied volatility cone [75][77][82] 8. Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Stock Index Options - Figures consist of the trend of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index, historical volatility, option position PCR, option at - the - money implied volatility, option implied volatility curve, and option at - the - money implied volatility cone [84][86][92]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market, focusing on the impact of inflation, oil prices, and monetary policy on bond yields and investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Short-term Bond Market Dynamics** The bond market is currently influenced by oil price inflation expectations and redemption pressures, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.85% being attractive. The upper limit for yields is expected to be around 1.90% [1][2][3]. 2. **Oil Price Impact on Inflation** Oil prices have a direct impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI), with an elasticity of approximately 0.35. If the average oil price exceeds $80 in March, the PPI may turn positive earlier than expected, potentially triggering market volatility [1][4][5]. 3. **Government Bond Supply Pressure** The supply pressure for government bonds in 2026 is anticipated to be lower than in 2025, with the central bank managing the exchange rate through macro-prudential tools rather than interest rate cuts [1][4]. 4. **Credit Bond Trading Strategy** Long-term credit bonds have limited trading space, and it is advised to take profits when yields are 10 basis points above the low point expected in 2025. The insurance sector's entry in March may further compress spreads [1][2]. 5. **Convertible Bond Premiums** The premium for convertible bonds is currently high at 36%-38%, and caution is advised for bonds priced above 170 yuan due to potential risks associated with performance and credit ratings in April [1][2][3]. 6. **Monetary Policy Stance** The monetary policy remains cautious regarding non-demand-driven inflation, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in liquidity. The average monthly value of DR007 is expected to be slightly above the policy rate by 3-4 basis points [1][7]. 7. **Market Sentiment and Trading Behavior** Historical data suggests that a rebound in PPI does not necessarily lead to a significant downward trend in the bond market. The response depends on the driving factors of inflation, whether demand-driven or supply-side [1][6]. 8. **Insurance Sector's Role in Credit Market** The insurance sector is expected to play a significant role in the credit market, particularly in March, as it typically sees a surge in bond purchases following the annual meeting. The focus will be on short to medium-term bonds due to their matching duration with new insurance products [1][14][15]. 9. **Risk Factors for Convertible Bonds** The convertible bond market is currently facing risks due to high valuations and potential redemption expectations. Bonds priced above 170 yuan are particularly vulnerable to market corrections [1][20][21]. 10. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** Investors are advised to focus on bonds with stable cash flows and avoid high-priced bonds with unclear redemption expectations. The strategy should include a cautious approach to technology growth sectors until market stability is observed [1][19][20]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical events and their potential impact on oil prices and inflation expectations, which could lead to increased volatility in the bond market [2][3]. - The discussion also highlights the need for a balanced approach to investment, considering both short-term trading opportunities and long-term value in the context of changing market conditions [1][19].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The manganese - silicon industry has low operating rates, supply contraction, slight demand recovery, and inventory reduction. With cost support and some disturbances, the futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and bullish pattern [2]. - The silicon - iron industry's operating rate continues to decline, demand slightly recovers, and social inventory drops to a low level in the same period in recent years. Considering supply - demand and external factors, the futures price is expected to run in a volatile and bullish way [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price is 6,088.00 yuan/ton, down 44.00 yuan; SF main contract closing price is 5,876.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract positions are 604,123.00 hands, down 26,218.00 hands; SF futures contract positions are 410,531.00 hands, up 281.00 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon's top 20 net positions are - 75,168.00 hands, up 12,171.00 hands; silicon - iron's top 20 net positions are - 25,511.00 hands, up 22.00 hands [2]. - SM 7 - 5 month contract spread is 34.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; SF 7 - 5 month contract spread is 90.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts are 46,010.00 sheets, up 400.00 sheets; SF warehouse receipts are 6,698.00 sheets, up 480.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,850.00 yuan/ton, down 100.00 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,600.00 yuan/ton, down 100.00 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,950.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,450.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,950.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,550.00 yuan/ton, down 110.00 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average is 5,809.00 yuan/ton, up 188.78 yuan; SF main contract basis is - 326.00 yuan/ton, down 118.00 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis is - 238.00 yuan/ton, down 56.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African high - iron manganese ore average price in Tianjin Port is 32.95 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in Northwest) is 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - South African semi - carbonate manganese ore average price in Tianjin Port is 38.95 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.30 yuan; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) is 730.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke is 1,110.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory is 472.80 million tons, down 22.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate is 35.70%, up 0.08%; silicon - iron enterprise operating rate is 26.55%, down 1.77% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply is 195,860.00 tons, down 1,575.00 tons; silicon - iron supply is 96,500.00 tons, down 2,100.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory is 387,300.00 tons, down 11,000.00 tons; silicon - iron manufacturer inventory is 66,280.00 tons, down 4,120.00 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Manganese - silicon inventory days in national steel mills is 18.57 days, up 1.09 days; silicon - iron inventory days in national steel mills is 18.72 days, up 1.20 days [2]. - Manganese - silicon demand of five major steel types is 111,169.00 tons, up 943.00 tons; silicon - iron demand of five major steel types is 17,809.40 tons, up 303.60 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 77.71%, down 2.51%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 85.32%, down 2.13% [2]. - Crude steel production is 6,817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Fugu Jinwantong Magnesium Industry stopped magnesium ingot production for equipment maintenance, expected to last until the end of March, affecting daily output by 120 tons [2]. - The central bank governor said that this year, various monetary policy tools such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts will be flexibly and efficiently used [2]. - Affected by the "Shanghai Seven - Point Policy", Shanghai's new - house sales offices had a peak of visits last weekend, and the new - house trading volume in March increased significantly year - on - year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by rising oil prices due to the Iran conflict, inflation trading has resurfaced. LPR remains unchanged. Meanwhile, the expectation of Fed rate - cuts continues, and the increasing uncertainty of global trade adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's monthly PPI has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly Economic Indicators: Social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 1.58%; M2 year - on - year growth rate is 9.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 5.88%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decline rate of 0.61% [10]. - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index is 98.72, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.14 and a decline rate of 0.14%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8864, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.034 and a decline rate of 0.49%; SHIBOR 7 - day rate is 1.42, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.78%; DR007 is 1.45, with a day - on - day increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.31%; R007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.13 and a decline rate of 7.46%; The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) for 3M is 1.51, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.33%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.33% [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.46 yuan, 105.98 yuan, 108.32 yuan, and 111.52 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.04%, - 0.14%, - 0.21%, and - 1.11% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.040 yuan, 0.133 yuan, 0.009 yuan, and 0.350 yuan respectively [3]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - On March 9, 2026, the central bank conducted a 485 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.322%, 1.423%, 1.475%, and 1.539% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 3.4 Spread Overview - The report presents various spread trends, including the inter - term spread trends of treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [7]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][44]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [46][55]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][58]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [61][64]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging Strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can moderately hedge using far - month contracts [4].