1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the likelihood of a bullish or bearish outlook for various varieties, but it emphasizes that these are only possibilities, not definite judgments [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The social finance growth rate remains at a high level. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale in the first 11 months of 2025 exceeded the full - year figure of the previous year. The growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans, medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and technology loans continue to be higher than the overall loan growth rate [1]. - For precious metals, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases provide solid support [2][18]. - The copper market is expected to shift to a supply - demand gap due to disruptions in ore supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. - The aluminum price has short - term weakening upward momentum, but a long - term optimistic outlook is still recommended, considering macro - level support and the situation of supply and demand [3][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Main News Concerns 3.1.1. International News - The Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, emphasizing that the subsequent pace of rate hikes will depend on the economy's response to each increase. The market has almost fully priced in the rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% at the December 18 - 19 meeting [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy next year to support the expansion of domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote high - quality economic development [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by several leading silicon material enterprises, was established, regarded as an important step in the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry. The planned annual silicon material production capacity of relevant enterprises in the future will not exceed 1.5 million tons [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on December 11 and 12, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 Futures, ICE Brent Crude Oil Continuous, etc. [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The long - term slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's interest rate cut in December and positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Loose policies are expected to increase, providing support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. The market funds are relatively loose [10][11]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend is hard to change. The IEA has adjusted the forecast of world oil demand, and OPEC+ production has increased [12]. - **Methanol**: It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. The start - up rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants has decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory has declined [13]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weakening, and demand supports the stable start of all - steel tires [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Pay attention to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the digestion rhythm of upstream supply and demand. The downstream demand is steadily releasing [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The inventory of glass is decreasing faster, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16][17]. 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion by the Fed support prices [18]. - **Copper**: The price dropped by more than 2% over the weekend. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a gap [19]. - **Zinc**: The price dropped by more than 1% over the weekend. The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals [20]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward momentum is weakening, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The macro - level supports the price, and the supply and demand situation needs further attention [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about the upward height in the short term. The weekly social inventory is decreasing, but potential supply increments have not been released [22][23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The rigid demand is weakening, but strong policy expectations in December provide upward momentum [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price has the power to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited. The medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The price is expected to be weak. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slightly behind, US soybean exports are slow, and domestic long - term supply is sufficient [26]. - **Edible Oils**: Palm oil has significant inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term due to positive news [27]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. International factors and domestic supply and cost factors need to be considered [28][29]. - **Cotton**: The price trend is strong, supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract may face adjustment pressure, and the 04 contract is expected to have further downward space due to supply surplus and potential Red Sea route resumption [31].

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月15日电（王柘）上周（2025年12月8日至12月12日）两大重要会议落地，政治局会议延续"适度宽松的货币政策"基 调，中央经济工作会议提出"灵活高效降准降息"，提振债市收益率连续多日连续震荡下行。至周五，债市再度转弱，对年末政府债供给 的担忧上升，叠加止盈盘涌出，收益率大幅上行。周五尾盘公布的11月偏弱金融数据及央行公告开展6000亿元买断式逆回购操作也未能 提振债市情绪。全周来看，10年期国债活跃券收益率走高1.4BP至1.84%。 本周资金面面临税期走款、存单到期量大，以及买断式逆回购净投放量较前期减少等扰动因素，资金波动或环比加大，还需关注央行短 期流动性投放态度。 行情回顾 2025年12月12日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较2025年12月5日分别变 动-1.37BP、-0.85BP、-0.44BP、-0.43BP、-0.39BP、-0.84BP、-0.84BP、0.5BP。 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)$ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The central government continues a relatively positive policy tone, with fiscal policy maintaining the scale of deficits and debt, and monetary policy remaining moderately loose with potential use of reserve - requirement cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, there may be a "sell - the - news" adjustment after the policy implementation, but the market correction since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year, suggesting investors gradually build long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate and Bond Market - DROO1 closed at 1.27, down 0.21bp; DR007 closed at 1.47, up 1.75bp; GC001 closed at 1.58, up 32.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.54, up 3.50bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.59, up 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.39, up 0.02bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.62, up 0.83bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.84, up 0.26bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.19, up 5.00bp [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 668.5 billion yuan in reverse - repurchase operations. With 663.8 billion yuan in reverse - repurchase maturities, the net injection was 4.7 billion yuan. This week, 668.5 billion yuan in reverse - repurchases will mature, along with 40 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse - repurchases and 8 billion yuan in treasury - cash fixed - deposits maturing on Monday [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - The closing prices and percentage changes of major stock indices and their corresponding stock - index futures contracts are presented. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4581, up 0.63%; IF for the current month closed at 4574, up 0.8%. The trading volumes and open interests of stock - index futures also showed varying degrees of increase [5] - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.08% to 4581; the SSE 50 fell 0.25% to 2994.6; the CSI 500 rose 1.01% to 7169.8; the CSI 1000 rose 0.39% to 7370.9. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, communication (6.3%), national defense and military industry (2.8%), electronics (2.6%), machinery (1.4%), and power equipment (1.2%) led the gains, while steel (-2.9%), real estate (-2.6%), textile and apparel (-2.6%), basic chemicals (-2.2%), and household appliances (-2%) led the losses. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 214.27 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5] 3.3 Stock - Index Futures Basis - The basis of IF for different contracts: current - month contract 11.08%, next - month contract 6.12%, current - quarter contract 4.15%, next - quarter contract 3.92%; IH: current - month contract 19.12%, next - month contract 5.41%, current - quarter contract 1.88%, next - quarter contract 1.84%; IC: current - month contract - 4.29%, next - month contract 8.45%, current - quarter contract 9.07%, next - quarter contract 10.19%; IM: current - month contract 9.05%, next - month contract 12.72%, current - quarter contract 12.95%, next - quarter contract 13.00% [7]

Group 1: Debt Market News - The central bank conducted a small-scale net withdrawal in the open market on December 12, with a total of 120.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 19.3 billion yuan for the day [9][10] - The bond market experienced a significant adjustment, with yields on major government bonds rising across the board, particularly in the long end, as market concerns about large bond supply and profit-taking pressure emerged [12] - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 2.75 basis points to 1.8425%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 3.35 basis points to 1.9165% [12] Group 2: Financial Regulatory Developments - The Financial Regulatory Administration issued a new set of guidelines to enhance the supervision and management of commercial bank custody businesses, aiming to promote standardized and healthy development in this sector [5] - The central bank emphasized the need for effective implementation of monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts, to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [3][4] Group 3: Corporate Announcements - Vanke announced that the proposals for extending the maturity of its "22 Vanke MTN004" bond were not effectively passed during the bondholders' meeting [15] - China Baoan announced its participation in the substantive merger and restructuring of the Shanshan Group and its wholly-owned subsidiary, seeking investors for this process [17] - Renfu Pharmaceutical received an administrative penalty notice from the Hubei Securities Regulatory Bureau, leading to the implementation of other risk warnings on its stock [20]

研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号：F3053225 投资咨询证号：Z0015885 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 国债期货周报：重要会议落地，盘面波动加大 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 第二部分 相关数据追踪 12 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 内容摘要 ◼【综合分析】 逻辑梳理：本周部分月度宏观数据密集公布，整体有喜有忧。其中金融数据方面，新型政策性金融工具带动企业部门融资需求上升是 最大亮点，但基数抬升等因素共同作用下，M1增速则继续放缓。相较于基本面数据而言，市场关注点更多集中在重要会议的内容上 。周四公布的中央经济工作会议通稿内容未超预期。财政政策方面，"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"的表述降低了明 年财政在"量"上大幅加码的概率。而货币政策适度宽松的基调不变，且将"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，明年政策利率调 降仍然可期。不过，周五上 ...

与瑞士央行的维稳立场形成鲜明对比的是，美联储此前如期实施25个基点降息，并释放出更为鸽派的政 策信号。美联储主席鲍威尔淡化通胀担忧，明确排除加息可能性，市场普遍预期2026年美联储将继续推 进货币宽松进程，直接导致美元指数承受下行压力，进一步放大了美元兑瑞郎的跌幅。这种政策周期的 错位成为当前汇价走势的核心结构性驱动因素——美联储已进入明确的降息通道，而瑞士央行因利率已 处于0%水平，政策宽松空间受到显著约束，这种不对称格局持续影响着两种货币的相对强弱关系。 通胀层面，瑞士物价形势持续低迷，11月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比涨幅降至0%，较8月的0.2%进一步 回落，主要受酒店住宿、房租及服装等领域价格下行拖累。基于此，瑞士央行下调了中期通胀预期，将 2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，2027年预期从0.7%下调至0.6%，反映出该行对未来物价压力的判 断更趋谨慎。尽管通胀低迷引发市场对瑞士央行进一步宽松的猜测，但结合其对负利率的谨慎态度，短 期政策调整概率较低。 经济增长方面，瑞士第三季度GDP因制药行业出口回调出现收缩，但其他制造业和服务业的温和增长部 分抵消了这一拖累；瑞士央行预计2025年G ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日收盘价 | TS2603 102.464 | TS2606 102.482 | TF2603 105.820 | TF2606 105.810 | T2603 107.985 | T2606 108.000 | TL2603 112.47 | TL2606 112.66 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.474 | 102.492 | 105.885 | 105.885 | 108.100 | 108.115 | 113.19 | 113.34 | | | 涨跌 | -0.010 | -0.010 | -0.065 | -0.075 | -0.115 | -0.115 | -0.720 | -0.680 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.06% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The long - term driving logic for copper still exists, and the price decline is limited [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 94,080 with a daily increase of 2.03%, and the night - session closing price was 91,550 with a decline of 2.69%. The price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,553 with a decline of 2.37%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai copper index and LME copper 3M electronic disk both increased compared to the previous day. The inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 1,102 to 32,563, and the inventory of LME copper increased by 50 to 165,900. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME copper was 39.78% with a decline of 0.40% [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper increased by 500 to 82,900. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 20, a decrease of 25 compared to the previous day. The near - month contract - to - consecutive - first - contract spread was - 60, a decrease of 30 compared to the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The People's Bank of China will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Trump prefers to let Warsh or Hassett serve as the Fed chair and hopes the interest rate will be 1% or lower in a year [1] - **Industry News**: China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November were 252.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 2.7614 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The US is negotiating with Central African countries to provide over $1 billion for two key mineral and railway projects. Chile's copper export value in November was $4.282 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.57%. In October, the copper production of Chile's state - owned miner Codelco decreased by 14.3% year - on - year to 111,000 tons. The mining investment in Chile from this year to 2034 is expected to reach $104.549 billion, higher than the previous forecast [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral state [3]

金融研究 2025年12月15日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 12 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.41%，报收 3889.35 点；深 成指上涨 0.84%，报收 13258.33 点；创业板指上涨 0.97%，报收 3194.36 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.74%， 报收 1348.88 点。市场成交 21,190 亿元，较前日增加 2,337 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+1.5%)， 电子(+1.46%)，电力设备(+1.42%)涨幅居前；商贸零售(-1.28%)，综合(-1.18%)，建筑材料(-0.47%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,681/162/2,610。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-28、-62、-124、213 亿元，分别变动+305、+169、-294、 股指期货 -181 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 84.74、54.79、25.35 与 14.64 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-11.98%、-7.96%、-5.76%与-5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy in the long - term, which supports bond futures, but in the short - term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data and policy focus on structural easing, the expectation of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, so bond futures will oscillate in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The reason is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still a long - term easing expectation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, last Friday, bond futures oscillated and pulled back. The central economic work conference proposes to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the long - term monetary environment is loose, which supports bond futures. However, in the short - term, macro - economic data is resilient, the urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, and the policy focuses on structural easing, so the upward momentum of bond futures is limited. Overall, bond futures are under pressure and support, and will oscillate in the short - term [5].