Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton is "oscillation", and for sugar is "oscillation with a downward bias" [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.72% to 66.36 cents per pound, and CF509 decreased 0.15% to 13,670 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 9,339 lots to 272,100 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,089 yuan per ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B was 15,191 yuan per ton, up 13 yuan. Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, with rising expectations of a September interest rate cut and more than 2 cuts this year, and U.S. cotton prices are in low - level oscillation. Domestically, as the 09 contract approaches expiration, the main contract's open interest is decreasing, and the warehouse receipt cancellation speed has slightly increased. After macro - pricing, the market will focus on new cotton. New cotton is expected to have a good harvest with a low opening price, putting pressure on the 01 contract. However, the new - year cotton consumption is expected to be stable, and the inventory - to - sales ratio won't be high. Overall, sentiment is positive, and prices are supported by low spot inventory before new cotton is on the market. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract will oscillate in the short - term and be stronger in the medium - to - long - term [2] - **Sugar**: Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar and molasses in July, a 4.98% decrease from last year. Spot prices in China are falling. Raw sugar is weak with no new drivers, and the expected increase in production suppresses futures prices. In China, spot prices continue to decline, and processed sugar will put pressure on the market. The market is expected to remain weak [2] Group 3: Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is - 165, down 5; the main contract basis is 1,521, up 33. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,089, up 6, and the national spot price is 15,191, up 13 [3] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 67, up 5; the main contract basis is 323, down 4. The Nanning spot price is 5,970, down 30, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,990, down 20 [3] Group 4: Market Information - On August 7, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,329, down 135 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts [4] - On August 7, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,089 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,220 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,169 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,265 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [4] - On August 7, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3 (unchanged), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30 (unchanged), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8 (up 0.1), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.7 (down 0.1) [4] - On August 7, the sugar spot prices were 5,970 yuan/ton in Nanning (down 30) and 5,990 yuan/ton in Liuzhou (down 20) [4] - On August 7, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 18,615, down 187 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis - There are charts showing the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota domestic - foreign spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton; as well as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][11][13][16][17][19] Group 6: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [21] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures [22] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Before the expectation of interest rate cuts improves significantly, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the aluminum price has been running strongly, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low during the off - season, and the market discount continues to widen. The macro - level domestic consumption stimulus and the "anti - involution" sentiment support the aluminum price, but the expected changes in the Fed's interest rate cuts and tariff events bring great uncertainty. In the short term, the price is still under high - level pressure, and the main contract price this month is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 21,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is currently tight, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. However, the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue to inhibit the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the market will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global and domestic zinc ore production in May and June were lower than expected. The supply on the supply side is loose, and the demand side is weak, which is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices. However, the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the processing fees of smelters remain low. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, it is expected that the market will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is not high, and the overall market transaction is average. The short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news - related factors dominate the market trend. The trading core lies in the ore end. The supply uncertainty will inject trading variables into the market. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic. It is expected that the main contract price may test around 75,000. For those without positions, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Pay attention to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The price of SMM wet - process copper increased by 0.18% to 78,390 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic mainstream ports decreased by 7.01% to 521,600 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi remained unchanged, while the average price in Guangxi remained unchanged, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.45% to 3,330 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM East China ADC12, South China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 all increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.49% to 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 77,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.21%; the export volume was 25,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.61% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot in Guangdong increased by 0.81% to 22,470 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the export volume was 1,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%, the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%, and the zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13% [8]. Tin Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The price of Yangtze River 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,700 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased by 73.81% to - 73 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The refined tin import volume was 1,786 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.97%; the export volume was 1,973 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.47% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.04% to 123,250 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.04% to 121,350 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% to 25,451 tons, the social inventory decreased by 0.14% to 40,281 tons, and the bonded area inventory increased by 10.64% to 5,200 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 13,000 yuan/ton. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 6.38% to 220 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 360,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48%; the export volume was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63%; the net export volume was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.22% to 69,000 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 65,490 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 60,420 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40%; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,210 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The lithium carbonate demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. In June, the lithium carbonate import volume was 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.31%; the export volume was 430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.84% [18].

换资前言： 技术面来看，近期黄金多空博弈激烈，价格虽短线有所突破，但整体仍维持于3400 - 3370的宽幅震荡格 局。正如我们强调的那样，黄金大扫荡行情依然会持续；昨日黄金走势再次证明了这一点，接下来大扫 荡依然会继续；只是，月线连续4个交易月冲高回落，上影线连续排列，四根天线天线宝宝，我们更倾 向于冲高下跌，并且是中线级别的下跌；目前唯一不确定的是刺破3400大关下跌，还是多头奔赴历史新 高后下跌！今日早盘，黄金高开于3403一线，盘中波动剧烈，先冲高至3406后回落至3396，随后又快速 拉升至3409，再跌至3382，如此大幅震荡，实为市场多空力量的激烈碰撞与洗礼。究其背后动因，关税 消息仍是关键推手。 具体走势而言，昨天黄金延续了亚盘震荡回落，欧盘扫荡，美盘探底大涨的规律；我们最近一直强调， 黄金很大可能要冲击3400大关，比较看好3405~10区域，但是能否多头强势，那要看日线是否站上3400 大关。从昨天收盘来看，并没有站上3400大关，今天估计要打破运行规律。今日早盘黄金一度围绕3400 扫荡，在冲击3409后迎来快跌，目前于3380附近震荡。我们需要注意的是，最近黄金市场大部分消息是 利多， ...

锦泰期货分析指出，近期美联储官员讲话均偏向鸽派，同时特朗普对于新任联储主席的选拔进行进一步 表态，市场对于后续联储宽松货币政策的预期增强，金银价格得到支撑。展望未来，非农和经济数据走 弱带来的经济担忧以及降息预期反弹仍有定发酵空间，预计黄金价格仍有进一步反弹可能。 美国总统特朗普周四表示，将提名白宫经济顾问委员会米兰临时出任美联储理事会成员，以填补空缺。 澳新银行分析师在报告中称，米兰是特朗普关税政策的设计者，市场认为这一任命意味着货币政策将更 趋鸽派。 8月7日，受美国经济下行压力加大及美联储近期鸽派论调催化，金价连续走强，COMEX黄金期货价格 盘中触及3483美元，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨1.44%报3482.70美元/盎司，8日亚市早盘，COMEX 黄金期货再度刷新历史新高，达3534.10美元，目前交投于3510美元附近。 ...

2025.08.08 本文字数：1228，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 美股周四涨跌互现，道指与标普500指数受礼来大跌拖累收低，纳指则在科技股带动下创收盘纪录新 高。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌224.48点，跌幅0.51%，报43968.64点；标普500指数下跌5.06点，跌幅 0.08%，报6340.00点；纳斯达克指数上涨73.27点，涨幅0.35%，报21242.70点，年内第17次创下历史收 盘新高。 医药板块成为拖累大盘的主力。礼来股价重挫14.1%，创多年最大单日跌幅。公司虽上调全年利润和销 售预期，但奥格列龙（Orforglipron）口服减肥药后期临床数据不及预期，引发市场失望。财报显示， 礼来二季度营收增长38%至155.6亿美元，经调整后每股收益达6.31美元，同比增长61%。 券商Spartan Capital Securities首席市场经济学家彼得·卡迪略（Peter Cardillo）称，礼来事件反映出市场 在高估值环境下对业绩与研发进展的敏感性。"盈利季带来的提振依旧存在，但个股利空容易引发板块 快速调整。" 科技股走势分化。AMD涨超5%，苹果涨超3%。 ...

美国总统特朗普提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Milan）出任临时美联储理事，任 期至2026年1月31日。 *三大指数走势分化 *礼来大跌冲击医疗板块 *米兰获提名出任美联储理事 美股周四涨跌互现，道指与标普500指数受礼来大跌拖累收低，纳指则在科技股带动下创收盘纪录新 高。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌224.48点，跌幅0.51%，报43968.64点；标普500指数下跌5.06点，跌幅 0.08%，报6340.00点；纳斯达克指数上涨73.27点，涨幅0.35%，报21242.70点，年内第17次创下历史收 盘新高。 经济数据方面，美国持续申领失业救济人数升至近三年来最高水平，劳动力市场放缓迹象进一步增强， 市场对9月降息预期维持高位。 美国劳工部数据显示，截至7月26日当周，持续申领失业救济人数增加3.8万人，至197万人，创2021年 11月以来新高，显示失业人员再就业难度加大。首次申领失业救济人数升至22.6万人，高于经济学家预 期。 芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的美联储观察工具显示，市场预计美联储9月降息至少25个基点的概率为 93.2%，较前一交易日的94.6%略有下降 ...

【导读】美股震荡跳水， 美联储理事沃勒成为特朗普团队最看好的鲍威尔接班人 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注一下海外市场的表现。 美股震荡跳水 8月7日晚间，美股三大指数高开低走，涨跌不一，道指跳水跌超300点，纳指涨约0.3%，标普500指数小幅下跌。 | TX IKI: TARAFIAA Comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the former of the form the forme t | | | --- | --- | | 成交量: 2.25亿股 | | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 季K 年K 120分 60分 30分 15分 5分 1分 区间统计 全屏显 | | | 最新:43884.31 -308.81 -0.70% | | | | 44533.88 | | | 1100 | 半导体板块大涨，AMD涨约6%，台积电大涨4%。消息面上，虽然美 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a cooling labor market in the U.S., as evidenced by rising unemployment claims, which supports expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2][4] - As of the week ending July 26, the number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits increased by 38,000 to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating a weakening labor market [2][4] - Despite the increase in unemployment claims, the initial claims for unemployment benefits remain relatively low, suggesting that while companies are reducing hiring, they are not aggressively laying off existing employees [4][8] Group 2 - The recent non-farm payroll report showed a significant slowdown in U.S. employment, raising concerns among investors and economists about further deterioration in the labor market [8] - Companies are hesitant to hire new employees but are also not rushing to lay off current staff, reflecting uncertainty in the economic environment influenced by policies such as tariffs [7][8] - Some large companies, including Merck and Intel, have begun layoffs, and Stanford University plans to cut over 300 jobs due to federal funding reductions [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes increased short - term trade agreement disputes leading to rising risk - aversion demand, and growing stagflation risks in the US economy with weakening employment and a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Currently, there are small reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF in terms of capital, and a small increase in the visible inventory of silver [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals are volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.10%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.07% [1]. - **Core Logic** - **Risk - Aversion Attribute**: Trump's new round of tariffs triggered a global stock - market crash, and many countries sought renegotiation. Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India, and Russian oil and geopolitics led to an escalation of trade conflicts [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls increase in the previous two months was revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor - market situation. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased from about 40% before the non - farm data to around 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year rose from 1 to 2. Many Fed officials signaled growing concerns about economic slowdown, causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to fall under pressure [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary** - **Prices**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D showed different changes compared to the previous day and week [2]. - **Basis, Spreads, and Ratios**: The basis and spreads between Shanghai Gold and London Gold, and ratios such as the gold - silver ratio and gold - copper ratio also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Positions in Comex gold, Shanghai Gold main contract, and Gold T + D, as well as inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai Gold Exchange, showed different trends [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had specific data and changes [3]. Silver - **Core Relationship**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - **Current Situation**: There are small reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF in terms of capital, and a small increase in the visible inventory of silver [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary** - **Prices**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices like Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D showed different changes compared to the previous day and week [6]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads between Shanghai Silver and London Silver had corresponding changes [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Positions in Comex silver, Shanghai Silver main contract, and Silver T + D, as well as inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai Silver Exchange, and the total visible inventory, showed different trends [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had specific data and changes [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Key Indicators** - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, with a decrease of 0.25 compared to the previous value; the Fed's total assets are 6692.931 billion US dollars, a decrease of 16.008 billion US dollars (- 0.00%) [8]. - M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.54%, an increase of 0.37 [8]. - Ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, with a daily increase of 0.02 (0.81%) and a weekly decrease of 0.04 (- 1.57%) [8]. - US dollar index is 98.23, a daily decrease of 0.54 (- 0.54%) and a weekly decrease of 1.72 (- 1.72%) [8]. - Other indicators such as US Treasury yield spreads, inflation rates (CPI, core CPI), economic growth indicators (GDP), labor - market indicators, real - estate market indicators, consumption indicators, industrial indicators, trade indicators, and economic survey indicators also have specific data and changes [8][10]. - **Safe - Haven Attribute** - Geopolitical risk index is 123.07, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 77.02 (- 38.49%) [11]. - VIX index is 16.39, a daily decrease of 0.38 (- 2.27%) and a weekly decrease of 0.33 (- 1.97%) [11]. - **Commodity Attribute** - CRB commodity index is 293.13, a daily decrease of 0.20 (- 0.07%) and a weekly decrease of 6.65 (- 2.22%) [11]. - Offshore RMB is 7.1930, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.0063 (- 0.09%) [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves** - China's central - bank gold reserve is 2300.41 tons, an increase of 4.04 tons (0.18%) [10]. - US central - bank gold reserve is 8133.46 tons, with no change [11]. - Global central - bank gold reserve is 36268.07 tons, with no change [11]. - **IMF Foreign - Exchange Reserves and Gold/Reserves Ratio** - The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign - exchange reserves is 57.80%, an increase of 0.51 (0.88%) [11]. - The proportion of the euro is 19.83%, a decrease of 0.20 (- 0.99%) [11]. - The proportion of the RMB is 2.18%, a decrease of 0.00 (- 0.04%) [11]. - The global gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 22.18%, an increase of 0.88 (4.11%) [11]. - China's gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 6.78%, an increase of 0.29 (4.40%) [11]. - The US gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 78.64%, an increase of 0.67 (0.86%) [11]. - **Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations** - The probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at various Fed meetings from 2025/9/17 to 2026/12/9 are provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions [12].

Economic Indicators - U.S. 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.26 basis points to 3.708%[4] - U.S. 5-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.35 basis points to 3.772%[4] - U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1.77 basis points to 4.226%[4] Market Performance - Nasdaq Index closed at 21,169.42, up by 1.21%[5] - Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,193.12, up by 0.18%[5] - S&P 500 Index closed at 6,345.06, up by 0.73%[5] Commodity Prices - ICE Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.01% to $66.96[5] - London gold price decreased by 0.35% to $3,368.81[5] - CME Bitcoin futures increased by 1.31% to $115,650.00[5] Corporate Earnings - McDonald's Q2 revenue reached $6.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%[4] Industry Trends - China's industrial robot production increased by 35.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year[4] - China's service robot production increased by 25.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year[4] - The consumer gaming laptop market in China saw a year-on-year growth of 24.3% in Q2[4]