Core Viewpoint - Since May, with the reduction of policy interest rates, the liquidity has further eased, but after the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, the funding rates have risen instead. The article discusses the expected government bond supply in June and the liquidity gap, questioning whether the funding environment will tighten or loosen further [1] Group 1: Market Interest Rates - Funding rates continued to decline in May, with the average R007 and DR007 down by 16.1 basis points and 14.5 basis points to 1.61% and 1.58% respectively. Various SHIBOR and interbank certificate of deposit rates also decreased compared to the previous month [4][5] - After the RRR cut on May 15, the funding environment began to tighten, and the central bank's operations shifted to small net injections towards the end of the month, with a total liquidity injection of around 1 trillion yuan [5][6] Group 2: Government Bond Supply - In June, the government is expected to issue approximately 1.38 trillion yuan in national bonds, with a net financing scale of around 490 billion yuan. Local government bonds are projected to total nearly 900 billion yuan, leading to a combined government bond issuance of about 2.3 trillion yuan and a net financing scale of approximately 920 billion yuan [2][22] Group 3: Funding Pressure and Liquidity - The net financing pressure is alleviated due to the increase in government bond maturities in June, with expectations of a decrease in government deposits by about 1.1 trillion yuan. The seasonal increase in bank reserve requirements is expected to consume around 290 billion yuan of excess reserves [3][32] - The central bank's monetary policy remains a crucial variable, with limited room for further easing in the short term due to reduced liquidity pressure and the recent rise in long-term bond rates [3][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy in April maintained resilience, with industrial production and exports better than market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations [1][3] - After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping, and after the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May, it is unlikely to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate again in the short - to - medium term [3] - The 90 - day window period reached in the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a short - term respite to the market, but long - term uncertainties remain [3] - The prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate horizontally on Thursday, and the short - term of treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated slightly downward in the morning session, and showed horizontal fluctuations in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.04%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2509 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 64.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 90 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.48% (1.51% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.57% (unchanged from the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.26 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 0.02 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year rose 0.86 BP to 1.72%, and the 30 - year rose 0.20 BP to 1.89% [1] - Eurozone: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49.0); the preliminary value of the service PMI in May was 48.9, the lowest level since January 2024 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.1) [1] - US: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.1, previous value 50.2), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.8, previous value 50.8) [1] Market Logic - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (market expectation 4.3%, 4.2% from January to March). In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year (market expectation 5.5%, 5.9% in March). In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year in real terms (market expectation 5.2%, 6.5% year - on - year in the first quarter) [1] - In April, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year (market forecast 2.0%, 12.4% in March). In April, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% (11.55% in March), and exports to the US decreased by 21.03% year - on - year (9.09% in March). Due to the impact of tariffs, China's exports to the US decreased significantly in April, while exports to ASEAN accelerated, possibly due to re - export factors [1] Trading Strategy - For trading - oriented investments, conduct band operations. [3]

各大国有银行下调存款利率，1年期银行存款利率跌破1%了。为什么会跌破1%呢？主要有两个原因：一是，不跌不行，银行扛不住。因为存款是银行的 负债，存款利率越高，银行的债务成本就越高。银行的业务本质上就是，把民众的存款低息借过来，再高息贷出去，赚的是息差。可现在，央行降准降息 了，基准利率下调10个基点，降到3.5%了。 | | 最新贷款市场报价利率 (LPR) | 贷款市场报价利率简介 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025-05-20 9:00 | | | 期限 | LPR(%) | | 1 | 1Y | 3.00 | | ↑ | 5Y | 3.50 | 那有人说了，这才3.5%而已，怎么存款利率就跌破1%了呢？这中间不还有2.5%的息差可以赚吗？银行有啥扛不住的？这就关系到银行的综合成本了。首 先，银行要养人。像工行就有41.5万名员工，建行也有37.6万员工，这些人得吃得喝，得交社保。2024年，工行员工总成本就有1075亿，人均薪酬34.42万 元。这个成本是相当高的。 其次，银行有坏账，也就是不良贷款。咱们还是以工行为例，它2024年的贷款不良率约为1.34%，不良贷款总额接 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the recent monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are expected to positively impact the A-share market by improving liquidity, stimulating the real economy, and enhancing asset valuations [1][2][3][6][9]. Group 2 - The central bank's reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is divided into two parts: a 0.5 percentage point reduction for deposit-taking financial institutions and a temporary reduction of the reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0% [1][2]. - The RRR cut is projected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, offering financial institutions substantial low-cost medium- and long-term funding [1][2]. Group 3 - The recent interest rate cuts include a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, a 0.25 percentage point reduction in all structural monetary policy tool rates, and a 0.25 percentage point reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates [2][3]. - These comprehensive interest rate cuts are expected to effectively lower financing costs for households, enterprises, and financial institutions, thereby stimulating demand in the real economy [2][3]. Group 4 - The decline in the risk-free interest rate is anticipated to enhance the valuation of equity assets, as historical trends indicate that lower interest rates lead to increased investor interest in stocks and equity products [3][4]. - Previous instances in the Chinese market, such as from 2014-2015 and 2019-2021, show that each round of declining risk-free rates has been accompanied by a continuous influx of capital into the stock market, resulting in overall valuation increases [3][4]. Group 5 - A series of coordinated policies, including ten monetary policy measures from the central bank, eight incremental policies from the financial regulatory authority, and four categories of market stabilization policies from the securities regulatory commission, are expected to create new opportunities for core assets [6][9]. - The policies aim to increase the participation of insurance funds in the market by raising the investment proportion limit for equity assets and expanding the trial scope for long-term investments [6][9]. Group 6 - The central government is supporting the Central Huijin Investment Company to play a role similar to a "stabilization fund," with measures such as merging a total quota of 800 billion yuan for various financial tools to enhance market stability [7][9]. - The maximum term for repurchase and increase loans has been extended from one year to three years, and the self-funding ratio requirement for listed companies to repurchase and increase stock has been reduced from 30% to 10% [7][9]. Group 7 - The policies are also aimed at facilitating the return of high-quality Chinese concept stocks to the domestic and Hong Kong markets while ensuring the protection of investors' legal rights [8][9]. - Overall, the coordinated policies are expected to establish a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the Chinese stock market [9][10].

5月20日，最新一期LPR出炉，1年期降至3%，5年期以上降至3.5%，均下降10BP（即0.1%），为去年10月以来首次下调。此前，已宣布"降 准"，自2025年5月15日起，下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点。 与此同时，国有六大行及部分股份行启动年内首次人民币存款利率下调，对活期、定期、通知存款利率下调幅度在5到25bp之间，其中一年 期存款首次跌破"1%"。 降准降息背景下，A股市场延续反弹，中证A500指数ETF（563880）喜提两连阳！ 【为何此时"降准降息"？】 据专家分析，当前市场存在较大的资金缺口。在支持经济发展方面，需要支持商业银行加大信贷投放，尤其是增加对出口、农业、科技创 新等相关行业企业的资金支持。在稳定和活跃资本市场发展方面，还需要支持银行、证券、保险、基金等金融机构与央企集团、众多上市 公司增持金融资产，稳定股市，稳定市场信心。 此次利率调整意在应对三重挑战：一是稳增长压力，通过降低融资成本刺激投资和消费；二是房地产行业调整，5年期LPR下调将直接减轻 购房者负担；三是防范金融风险，通过稳定银行净息差维护金融体系稳健性。这一系列调整体现了货币政策"稳增长、调结构、防风险"的 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The Sino - US trade negotiation results briefly boosted market confidence, and policy - side benefits have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. Steel output has risen, inventories have declined, and apparent demand has rebounded. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. Technically, the short - term rally last week was followed by a downward trend this week, and the medium - term downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation phase [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. Iron ore demand may be further suppressed if a production - restriction policy is introduced. The global supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventories are decreasing at a slower pace, and the high proportion of trade ore inventories exerts pressure on futures prices. Technically, the price may enter an oscillation phase after a short - term rebound [5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Conditions**: The Sino - US trade negotiation results briefly boosted confidence, and policy - side benefits fully materialized. The real estate market in core cities stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out, with new construction areas dropping significantly and completion and construction areas still showing large year - on - year declines [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, steel output increased, factory inventories decreased, social inventories continued to decline, total inventories dropped, and apparent demand rebounded. Steel mills believe the industry needs to cut production, but there is no incentive for voluntary production cuts [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term sharp rebound last week, prices faced downward pressure this week, and the medium - term downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation phase [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see. Wait patiently for the price to complete bottom - building and then go long at low prices [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices mostly declined compared to last week. For example, the closing price of the thread steel futures main contract was 3061 yuan/ton, down 2.11% from last week [3]. - **Production**: The output of national building material steel mills' thread steel was 226.53 million tons, up 1.34% from last week, while hot - rolled coil output was 311.98 million tons, down 2.62% [3]. - **Inventory**: Five major varieties of social inventories were 993.67 million tons, down 3.81% from last week. Thread social inventories were 434.88 million tons, down 6.55% [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The impact of the US tariff increase on steel exports has not yet emerged. Last week, the iron - water output of 247 steel mills exceeded 244.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: If a production - restriction policy is introduced, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventories are decreasing at a slower pace, and the high proportion of trade ore inventories exerts pressure on futures prices [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price has fallen to near the long - term trend line, and a short - term rebound may indicate the end of the medium - term downward trend and the entry into an oscillation phase [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 728.5 yuan/dry ton, up 0.48% from the previous day and down 1.15% from last week [5]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1648.9 million tons, up 2.94% from last week, and Brazilian shipments were 751.1 million tons, up 37.04% [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories totaled 14166.09 million tons, down 0.51% from last week, and port trade ore inventories were 9718.75 million tons, down 0.03% [5]. 3.3 Industry News As market sentiment faded, steel prices first rose and then fell. The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 50 yuan to 2930 yuan/ton. Steel mills' coke price reduction of 50 yuan was implemented. Iron ore spot prices rebounded. The average iron - water cost of Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills decreased by 4 yuan to 2148 yuan/ton, and the average steel billet cost decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 2898 yuan/ton. The average profit of billet - making steel mills decreased by 46 yuan to 32 yuan/ton, the lowest in two months [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index: Neutral [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - April economic data declined compared to March but remained resilient under the tariff war. Social retail sales were up 5.1% year-on-year, supported by the "trade-in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and M2 up 8% year-on-year. The China-US joint statement and subsequent policies are expected to boost the stock market [1]. - The internal policy push is the main theme for the stock index in 2025. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has rebounded by about 4%. However, ROE is still at the bottoming stage. These measures will help companies repair their balance sheets and lift the stock market valuation [1]. - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with the 30-year and 10-year contracts up 0.03%, the 5-year down 0.04%, and the 2-year down 0.03%. The central bank's reverse repurchase operation and other factors have changed the bond market environment, and the short-term bond market is expected to be weak [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: April economic data was resilient, and policies such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the entry of long-term funds into the market, are expected to support the stock market. The revenue and profit of A-share listed companies are showing signs of improvement, and the stock market valuation is expected to rise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures had mixed performance, and the bond market environment has changed due to policy and economic factors. The short-term bond market is expected to be weak [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: All major contracts of stock index futures declined, with IM down 1.56%, IC down 1.31%, IF down 0.89%, and IH down 0.53% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: All major stock indexes declined, with the CSI 1000 down 1.68%, the CSI 500 down 1.45%, the SSE 50 down 0.49%, and the SSE 300 down 0.91% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30-year and 10-year contracts rose, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts fell. The 30-year contract was up 0.15%, and the 10-year contract was up 0.02% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds showed different trends [3]. 3.3 Market News - In May, the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, down from 3.6% last month, and the 1-year LPR was 3%, down from 3.1% last month [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Charts show the trends of major contracts and their basis [6][7][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts show the trends of major contracts, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts show the trends of various currency exchange rates, including the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB and other currencies [20][21][22][24][25]

Group 1 - The domestic money market interest rates continue the trend of "short-term rise and long-term decline" as the demand for funds increases ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, pushing up short-term rates [1] - As of May 20, the overnight, 1-week, and 2-week Shanghai Interbank Offered Rates (Shibor) were reported at 1.509%, 1.556%, and 1.65%, respectively, showing increases of 10.3, 6.6, and 9.4 basis points compared to May 13 [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate effective May 8, and a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions effective May 15, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity into the market [1] Group 2 - On May 20, the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and the 5-year LPR were both reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 3% and 3.5%, respectively, marking the first LPR cut in eight months [1] - The PBOC is expected to inject liquidity through reverse repos to stabilize the impact of the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival and month-end on the money market [2] - The expectation is that the money market interest rates will continue to exhibit the "short-term rise and long-term decline" trend in the following week [2]

1、 《 5月 LPR 报价下调，还有空间》摘要 4、 《 财险公司一季度经营透视》摘要 ■ 银行业绩分化加剧： 国有行净利润增速转正（+0.08%），但股份行、城农商行持续负增长；城农 商行利息净收入改善支撑其降幅收窄，关注区域性银行结构性机会。 ■ 息差 压力边际缓解 ： Q1净息差1.43%（同比-12BP），负债成本压降驱动降幅收窄；5月降准降息 叠加存款利率下行空间打开，后续息差企稳预期增强。 ■ 零售资产风险需警惕： 不良率环比升至1.51%，主因零售贷款风险暴露；中小银行（城农商行）不 良率上升明显，政策落地对居民收入改善效果成关键变量。 ■ 资本补充迫在眉睫： 核心一级资本充足率10.7%（环比下降），信贷开门红消耗资本；国有大行已 获1650亿特别国债注资，中小银行或借地方专项债补充资本 。 ■ 政策红利释放方向： 降准降息+结构性工具加码，支撑银行基本面修复；国有行资本充足率 （17.79%）和抗风险能力突出，高股息策略价值凸显。 ■ 行业整体高增长但分化加剧： 2025年Q1财险行业保费增5.4%、净利润同比+66.91%，但头部5家 公司（人保/平安/太保/国寿/英大）贡献超80%利润 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced slight weakness with the first LPR reduction of the year, leading to a potential observation period for policy effectiveness and possible increased liquidity supply from the central bank [1][5] Market Performance - Government bond futures mostly declined, with the 30-year main contract down 0.03% and the 10-year main contract up 0.03% [2] - The interbank major interest rate bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.6625% [2] Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield at 3.97% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose significantly, with the 30-year yield reaching a new high of 3.1% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 0.4 basis points to 3.256% [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had lower winning yields than market estimates, with 5-year and 10-year yields at 1.5195% and 1.6495%, respectively [4] - Local government bonds in Heilongjiang showed strong demand, with bid multiples exceeding 23 times [4] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3570 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1770 billion yuan [5] - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points for both 1-year and 5-year terms, which is expected to reduce financing costs for enterprises and residents [5] Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the 10-year government bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.8%, advocating for a strategy of increasing holdings during adjustments [7] - Citic Fixed Income notes that the average weighted loan interest rate has dropped to a historical low of 3.75%, with expectations for further declines following the LPR cut [8]