Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to identify and recommend sectors or themes with strong momentum, focusing on technology-related sectors and specific themes like military and Hong Kong automotive industries[2][3][10]. **Model Construction Process**: The report does not provide detailed steps or formulas for the construction of the TWO BETA model. However, it is used to track and recommend sectors based on their relative performance and momentum trends[2][3][10]. **Model Evaluation**: The model continues to recommend technology sectors, military themes, and Hong Kong automotive themes, indicating its focus on identifying upward trends in these areas[2][3][10]. - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to recommend sectors based on medium-term perspectives, focusing on sectors undergoing a turnaround or showing resilience in current market conditions[2][3][10]. **Model Construction Process**: The report does not provide detailed steps or formulas for the construction of the industry allocation model. It is used to identify sectors like innovative drugs in Hong Kong, new consumption themes, and financial sectors in Hong Kong[2][3][10]. **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights sectors with potential for recovery or sustained growth, such as Hong Kong innovative drugs, new consumption, and financial sectors, which are deemed to have intact trends[2][3][10]. - **Model Name**: Timing System **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to determine the market's overall environment and timing signals[1][9][13]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) for the Wind All A Index. 2. Calculate the distance between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{Short-term MA} - \text{Long-term MA}}{\text{Long-term MA}} $ - Short-term MA (20-day): 5130 - Long-term MA (120-day): 5075 - Distance: 1.09% 3. Interpret the signal: If the absolute value of the distance is less than 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase[1][9][13]. **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates that the market remains in a consolidation phase, with the short-term moving average above the long-term moving average, suggesting a lack of strong directional trends[1][9][13]. Backtesting Results of Models - **TWO BETA Model**: No specific backtesting results or quantitative metrics are provided in the report[2][3][10]. - **Industry Allocation Model**: No specific backtesting results or quantitative metrics are provided in the report[2][3][10]. - **Timing System**: - Short-term MA: 5130 - Long-term MA: 5075 - Distance: 1.09% - Absolute distance remains below 3%, confirming the market's consolidation phase[1][9][13]. Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: None explicitly mentioned in the report. Backtesting Results of Factors - **Factors**: No specific factors or their backtesting results are provided in the report.

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank's financial stability report indicates that the current interest rate environment in Switzerland may encourage investors to increase their risk appetite, potentially exacerbating vulnerabilities in the mortgage and residential real estate markets [1] Group 1 - The report highlights that the prevailing interest rates could lead to a higher risk tolerance among investors [1] - It suggests that this increased risk appetite may further weaken the mortgage market [1] - The residential real estate market is also identified as being at risk due to these conditions [1]

有色金属日报 2025-6-19 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 地缘局势边际恶化，美联储议息会议表态偏鹰，铜价震荡下滑，昨日伦铜收跌 0.2%至 9650 美元/吨， 沪铜主力合约收至 78610 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 200 至 107350 吨，注册仓单量维持 低位，注销仓单比例下滑至 49.3%，Cash/3M 升水 106 美元/吨。国内方面，昨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 核心观点 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 沪铜 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 今日沪铜增仓上行，主力期价逼近 7.9 万关口。本周市场消化中 东局势消息，风险偏好回升，金价持续回落，今日白银再创新高。 产业层面，国内处于供需双强，电解铜社库淡季去化放缓。宏观氛 围回暖或持续推升铜价，关注 7.9 万一线多空博弈。 铜铝日内上行 沪铝 今日铝价整体呈现增仓上行趋势，主力期价拉升至 2.07 万关口。 本周市场消化中东局势消息，风险偏好回升。产业层面，国内需求较 好，电解铝库存持续去化。随着期价上行，下游需求或受 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant impact of Israel's large-scale attack on Iran, which has shaken global markets and heightened geopolitical tensions [1][3]. - Following the attack, U.S. stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 700 points at one point, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell approximately 0.4% [2]. - Oil prices saw substantial volatility, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surging over 10% before retreating more than half of that gain, indicating heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical events [3]. Group 2 - The attack has led to a surge in safe-haven assets, particularly gold, which remains near historical highs, reflecting investor caution amid rising geopolitical risks [5][7]. - Energy and defense stocks have risen, while airline and tourism companies faced declines, showcasing a shift in market sentiment towards sectors perceived as safer during geopolitical turmoil [3]. - The timing of the attack disrupted a previously favorable risk appetite in the market, as recent U.S. inflation indicators had shown improvement and trade negotiations with China were progressing [7]. Group 3 - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that the U.S. was aware of the attack beforehand and emphasized the goal of destroying Iran's ballistic missile production capabilities, which currently stands at 300 missiles per month [8][9]. - Former President Trump stated that Iran officials have expressed interest in negotiating a nuclear deal, suggesting that the attack may not preclude diplomatic discussions [10][11]. - Trump also remarked that the attack could be beneficial for the market, as it implies that Iran would not possess nuclear weapons, which he believes would be a positive outcome for market stability [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. Despite recent weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies remain stable, and in the short term, existing policies will be fully utilized. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold is expected to gradually narrow its short - term adjustment range and rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations, reflecting the continuous impact of tariff policies on demand and inflation. Although economic data was weak, the May non - farm payrolls and wage growth were better than expected, reducing market expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic: Policies remain stable, and in the short term, existing policies will be fully utilized. Manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold is expected to gradually narrow its short - term adjustment range and rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, economic growth expectations have improved, and stagflation trading has cooled [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Attention should be paid to option market liquidity [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price increase implementation. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: After the China - US talks, prices will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot metal production [7]. - Iron ore: Small - sample hot metal production slightly decreased, and macro factors will affect prices. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - Coke: Demand support is weakening, and market expectations are pessimistic. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking coal: Upstream production stoppages have increased, but trading has not improved. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - Other products such as ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: With a weak US dollar index, copper prices are at a high level and are expected to be volatile [7]. - Alumina: Spot prices are falling, and the market is under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to ore production resumption and electrolytic aluminum production resumption [7]. - Aluminum: Affected by Trump's steel and aluminum tariff policies, aluminum prices are at a high level and are expected to be volatile [7]. - Zinc: After progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations, opportunities for shorting zinc at high prices should be noted. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc ore supply [7]. - Other non - ferrous metals such as lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and industrial silicon are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks have intensified, increasing price volatility. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies, Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [9]. - Other products such as LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, etc. have different short - term trends and influencing factors, mainly showing range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Livestock: For pigs, high average weights will put pressure on spot and near - term prices. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - Other agricultural products such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, cotton, sugar, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].

Group 1 - HSBC has a positive outlook for the second half of 2025, noting a rebound in trading activity in the US market despite some signs of demand being pulled forward [1] - The bank suggests an overweight position in equities, high-yield bonds, and emerging market bonds, driven by optimism around artificial intelligence and a weaker dollar [1] - Historical data indicates that during periods of high economic policy uncertainty, risk assets tend to rebound rather than decline further [1] Group 2 - Market confidence in the US government's tax reduction agenda is waning, with potential agreements in the summer serving as a short-term catalyst for risk asset increases, provided long-term yields do not rise sharply [2] - Downside risks include a rising unemployment rate and US Treasury yields approaching a "danger zone" of 4.7%, which could trigger widespread selling of risk assets [2] - HSBC plans to slightly overweight equities and increase positions during market pullbacks, particularly in US stocks, while maintaining an overweight in emerging markets and high-yield credit [2]

Group 1 - The market experienced a sharp decline on Tuesday but managed to recover on Wednesday, indicating strong resilience despite concerns over external negative news [1] - The index showed hesitation in breaking through the 3400-point level, leading to continued consolidation and a lack of sustained trading volume, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw upward movement driven by positive news expectations, while previously leading sectors like bioproducts, communication services, and port shipping experienced pullbacks, indicating a "short and quick" rotation of market hotspots [1] Group 2 - The short-term outlook suggests continued mild consolidation, with attention on upcoming monthly macroeconomic data and trading volume changes [1] - According to technical analysis principles, a sustained increase in trading volume is necessary for the market to choose a direction [1]

从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F0314 ...

Market Overview - The successful outcome of the China-US-Switzerland talks on May 12 significantly boosted global risk appetite, leading to a general rise in global stock indices[5] - In May, the 20-year US Treasury auction was cold, with the final yield at 5.047%, raising concerns about US fiscal pressure[6] Global Fund Flows - In May, global equity funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, totaling $8.3 billion, while developed markets experienced an inflow of $30.5 billion[13] - Developed European equity funds received inflows of $24.7 billion, while Chinese equity funds faced a substantial outflow of $10.9 billion[25] China Market Dynamics - In May, China's fixed income market saw a notable inflow of $4.9 billion, while the equity market experienced a significant outflow[15] - The inflow ratio for Chinese fixed income funds was 5.6%, while the equity market saw a -1.1% outflow ratio[14] Sector Performance - In the US, there was a marked outflow from the technology sector, while industrials, telecommunications, and infrastructure saw inflows[41] - The inflow into US corporate bonds reached $39.4 billion in May, reversing the previous month's outflow of $23.2 billion[27] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns in the US, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and higher-than-expected tariffs from the Trump administration[36]