投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600 ...

Group 1 - The SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) reported at 4.30% on May 16, down from 4.31% the previous day, indicating a slight decrease in overnight borrowing costs [1] - The sale of three-month Treasury bills by the U.S. Treasury will test market risk appetite following the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on the same day, consistent with the previous day's rate [1]

| Cleiking | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 股指 | 持有的多头头寸考虑减仓,警惕进一步调整风险。 | 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 起 示 | 登间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | 短期金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。明终 | 賣金 | 農汤 | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | | | | | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | 近期美国消费者信心指数走低、通胀预期走高等压制市场风险偏 | | | | | | | 好, 叠加铜下游需求有所转弱, 铜价短期偏弱运行。 | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,叠加氧化铝价格反弹提振, | 看头 | | | | | | 铝价短期维持偏强运行。 | 几内亚过渡政府撤销采矿证,相关企业已接到停产通知,铝土矿 | 氧化铝 | | | | | | 供应扰动提升,氧化 ...

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report, dated May 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs and the cooling inflation and economic slowdown in the US increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, improving market risk appetite, and the lead price followed the non-ferrous sector to run strongly. Fundamentally, primary lead smelters had both production cuts and restarts, with supply mainly recovering. In the off-season of consumption, the supply of waste batteries did not improve significantly, the procurement cost of recyclers increased, and they were reluctant to sell at low prices. Some previously减产 secondary lead smelters in Guangxi and Jiangsu restarted production, but under the background of raw material shortage and poor profits, smelters mostly operated at low loads, and the supply did not recover significantly. However, after the lead price rebounded, the profits of enterprises were repaired, and the expectation of a further expansion of production cuts weakened. On the consumption side, lead-acid batteries remained in the seasonal off-season, mostly digesting inventory and mainly making rigid purchases. Overall, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and the macro sentiment weakened marginally. Currently, the cost side supports the lead price, but consumption remains in the off-season. The rebound of the lead price repairs the profits of secondary lead smelters, the expectation of an expansion of production cuts weakens, and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, suppressing the lead price trend. In the short term, long and short factors are intertwined, the lead price trend is stalemated, and it maintains a high-level consolidation operation [3][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From May 9th to May 16th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,805 yuan/ton to 16,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,985.5 US dollars/ton to 2,006 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.5 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.41, a decrease of 0.05; the SHFE inventory increased from 49,504 tons to 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 253,425 tons to 248,850 tons, a decrease of 4,575 tons; the social inventory increased from 47,500 tons to 56,000 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons; the spot premium decreased from -90 yuan/ton to -130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2506 contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated horizontally around 17,000 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 16,870 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. On Friday night, it fluctuated narrowly. The concern about the US economic recession eased, the pressure on risk assets weakened, and LME lead continued to rebound, but the rebound pace slowed down near 2,000 US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 2,006 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. In the spot market, as of May 16th, the price of Chihong lead in the Shanghai market was 16,935 - 16,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2506 contract; the price of Honglu lead was 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract; the price of Jiangtong lead in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was reported at 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract. Sellers sold goods according to the market, a few enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the quotation changed from a discount to a premium. The ex-factory price of electrolytic lead smelters' factory-picked goods remained at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the SMM 1 lead average price, and the secondary refined lead was quoted at a discount of 120 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid purchases and preferred large-discount goods with low prices [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 650 yuan/metal ton and -30 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat compared to the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai-London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory situations, 1 lead premium and discount situations, LME lead premium and discount situations, primary lead and secondary refined lead price differences, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profit situations, lead ore processing fees, primary lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss situations [10][11][15][16][18][21][22][24][25]

贵金属日报：剧震波动 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月19日 【行情回顾】 上周COMEX贵金属整体金跌银震，其中伦敦金周内最低下探至3120附近，为4月10日来新低。利空 面，5月12日，中美两国在日内瓦经贸高层会谈后发布联合公报，宣布达成重要共识，推升市场风险偏 好，黄金明显承压回落。 从投资需求维度看，自4月下旬以来，全球黄金ETF呈现一定获利回吐下的流出 迹象，受贸易冲突、地缘冲突以及美联储降息预期降温等因素影响。鲍威尔周四表示将重新评估2020版 货币政策框架的"关键部分"，长期利率可能走高，"供应冲击"或成新常态；"新美联储通讯社"随后 表示，美联储将对利率制定框架调整，承认长期低利率可能已结束。 利多面，周二晚间公布的美国CPI略 低于预期，缓和通胀担忧并略微改善降息前景。消息面，周五穆迪宣布下调美国主权信用评级从Aaa至 Aa1，原因为美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加，穆迪是三家评级巨头中最后一家剥夺美Aaa 的机构，该 消息或加剧周一美国股债汇波动并利多黄金，建议关注。另外，中国3月减持美债189亦美元至7654亿美 元 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...

宏观 证券研究报告 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明超预期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 19 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 3 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 5) 风险提示：基本面超预期弱化、中美谈判进度不及预期。 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场缩量上涨。关税动态方面，中美日内瓦经贸 会谈联合声明超预期，但由于 24%部分暂停的关税后续贸易谈 判难度较大，谈判窗口期后仍然有重新启动的风险，针对芬 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月18日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [经济预期与市场风险偏好，均衡配置下 Table_NewTitle] 寻找权益低估资产 ——资产配置周报（2025/05/12-2025/05/16） [table_main] 投资要点 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。至5月16日当周，全球股市多数收涨，美股表现强于A股；主要商品期 货中黄金下跌，原油、铜、铝均收涨；美元指数小幅上涨，日元、欧元贬值，人民 ...

智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，关税趋缓定价充分，市场由风险偏好驱动转为流动性驱动， 交易上，个人投资者占比较多的典型指数，如北证50及微盘股受益最多。风险偏好或接近历史高位，参 与者结构切换，5月下旬，行情有望转向小盘价值。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 关税趋缓定价充分，市场由风险偏好驱动转为流动性驱动，交易上，个人投资者占比较多的典型指数， 如北证50及微盘股受益最多。风险偏好或接近历史高位，参与者结构切换，5月下旬，行情有望转向小 盘价值。 如何看待5月参与者结构变化？ 游资回流，重拾定价权。随着关税等隐含风险落地，非机构资金回流意愿显著增强，接下来在5月中下 旬，市场将由风险偏好改善驱动，转为流动性驱动。从游资监测模型显示，4月下旬游资交易热度开始 逐步筑底，在此期间，市场行情在市值层面亦已体现出较明显的非线性特征，即市值两端的典型指数， 上证50和微型股领涨，市值居中的中证500及中证1000领跌，背后对应的是长期资金入市，以及游资交 易回流，而这个趋势后市将继续强化。 5月下旬市场交易主线是什么？ 经济压力浮现，美国降息难度较大。市场对关税战缓和预期定价充分，风险偏好上行所带动成长板块的 修复 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to rebound, with the Meijing Brand 100 Index rising 1.02% this week, closing at 1096.7 points [1][2] - The easing of external tariff pressures and the end of the earnings season are expected to lead to a recovery in risk appetite in the A-share market [1][6] - The index saw 67 stocks increase in value, with notable gains from Oriental Overseas International (19.30%), NetEase (16.07%), and China Pacific Insurance (10.20%) [2][3] Group 2 - The shipping sector benefited significantly from the recent US-China tariff adjustments, with stocks like Oriental Overseas International and China Merchants Industry seeing substantial price increases [7] - China Pacific Insurance and China Taiping Insurance also experienced over 5% growth, driven by improved market sentiment and better-than-expected earnings reports [7][8] - The Tencent Holdings stock saw a market value increase of 123.13 billion, leading the market in value growth this week [4] Group 3 - The insurance sector is expected to attract more investment as it is currently underrepresented in public funds, with potential for rebalancing of capital flows [8][9] - The non-bank financial ETFs are gaining attention, particularly those tracking the insurance sector, as they are expected to perform well with economic recovery [9][11] - The China Securities Insurance Index and the CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index both have significant weight in major insurance companies, indicating their importance in the market [10][12]