| /资者等待逢低布局多单；伦敦金关注3150-3250附近支撑位及3500-3700附近压力位，沪金730-760附近支撑位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦 | | --- | | [银35-37附近支撑位及40-43附近压力位，沪银8600-9000附近支撑位及9500-10000附近压力位。（观点评分：0） | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的推 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证、也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已为求报告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、统论和建议仅供参考，不拘成任何投资建议。投 | | 谈者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资资造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有、未经书面许可、任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和WIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips in August. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, and the overall shortage of copper mines throughout the year supports copper prices. In the short - term, due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the further decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices are in a continuous adjustment, with a support level at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, and the tight supply of copper mines will continue to support copper prices, so the strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7]. Summary by Directory 01后市研判 - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, providing support for copper prices. In the short - term, copper prices are adjusting due to tariff implementation and the decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, with a support at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, expect two interest - rate cuts this year, and continue to maintain the buying - on - dips strategy [6][7]. 02行情回顾 - In July, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the 232 policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. On July 14, copper prices hit the monthly low of 77,700 yuan/ton. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. But after the sentiment faded, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [9][10]. 03宏观面 - **International Situation**: On August 1, the 50% copper tariff excluded electrolytic copper, copper ore, and scrap copper. Excluding the electrolytic copper tariff made the CME market almost eliminate the tariff premium, and there is a possibility of US electrolytic copper flowing out, accelerating the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. In July, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, causing the September interest - rate cut expectation to decline further, and the US dollar index rebounded, suppressing copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as the tariff situation eases and the actual US CPI shows a moderate increase, the market has been lowering CPI expectations, opening up space for interest - rate cuts in Q3, and there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, which will gradually remove the upward pressure on metals [8]. - **US Economic Data**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than expected. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value increased by 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The core PCE price index in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than expected. The strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further reduced [20]. - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of growth - stabilizing policies. From the supply side, according to the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025 - 2027)", copper smelting development will shift from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, and the contradiction between mining and smelting is expected to be gradually alleviated. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" policies focus on a new round of growth - stabilizing actions, and the stable growth of the manufacturing industry will boost copper demand. In the medium - to - long - term, after the elimination of over - capacity, the supply growth rate may lag behind the demand improvement rate, further pushing up the copper price [23][26]. 04基本面 - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supply from the top two suppliers, Chile and Peru, continued to decline, with Peru's decline being around 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas miners this year are zero, and the spot processing fees remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [27]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 US dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates remained relatively inactive, and the processing fees showed a trend of "stabilizing with a slight correction". The 2025 Q2 CSPC general manager's meeting decided not to set a reference figure for the Q3 spot copper concentrate processing fees [30]. - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, the rush to import copper started in April. In April and May, the US imported 200,000 tons and 210,000 tons of refined copper respectively, far exceeding the historical average of 80,000 tons, causing a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. As of June 30, the LME inventory dropped to 90,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the beginning of the year. With the implementation of the 232 policy, the LME inventory started to increase, reaching 128,000 tons by July 25. The New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high in more than seven years. As of July 31, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the 28th [33]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons, or 11.40%. In July, the estimated production was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss - making stage, the willingness to actively reduce production is not strong [36]. - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to rise by more than 20%, and the supply from Asian countries such as Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea also increased to varying degrees, while the supply from the US decreased by more than 80%. Due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, the increased supply from other countries compensated for the decrease from the US [39]. - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: In 2025, the State Grid's investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the power grid investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power source project investment increased by 5.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the over - expected growth of photovoltaic and wind power installations. If the two - grid companies complete their planned investment of 825 billion yuan, there is still significant room for growth in power grid investment. Affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41%. From January to June, China's cable exports were 1.4296 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.63%. The "Belt and Road" countries have great potential in promoting China's power material exports [41]. - **Real Estate Sector**: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and housing construction area decreased by 9.1%. New housing starts decreased by 20.0%, and housing completions decreased by 14.8%. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventory is decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [45]. - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is approaching 50%. China's automobile exports were 3.083 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 75.2%. The growth of the automobile industry will drive copper consumption [48]. - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the combined production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The production plan for household air - conditioners in August was 11.443 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, but the decline was expected to narrow compared to the previous month. The high - temperature weather in summer and the "trade - in" subsidy policy promoted air - conditioner sales and inventory digestion [51].

Report Title - Global Economic and Major Asset Monthly Report: Second Wave Correction of Commodities [1] Report Date - August 1, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - The global economy maintains an upward trend [47][53] Industry Situation Global Economy - The global manufacturing PMI index resumed expansion in June due to the easing of Sino-US tariffs [6] United States - In June, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices continued to increase [12] - In June, US retail and food sales reached $720.1 billion, a month-on-month surge of 0.6%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] - In May, the US goods import value was $264.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.26%, showing that imports are returning to normal [18] - In May, US capital goods imports were $90.9 billion, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.3%, indicating the acceleration of manufacturing reshoring and "re-industrialization" [21] - In May, the US service export value was $98.7 billion, basically flat with the previous month, showing a strong service industry [24] - In June, the US core CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.9% (previous value 2.8%), and the month-on-month increase was 0.3%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [27] - In June, the US personal consumption expenditure price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reaching a four-month high [30] - In May, the US non-farm enterprise hourly wage was $36.24, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [35] - In May, the US wholesaler inventory year-on-year growth rate was 1.4%, and the manufacturer inventory year-on-year growth rate was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [38] Eurozone - The Eurozone has cut interest rates for the 8th consecutive time, and Germany's military expansion of 30% will boost the Eurozone's manufacturing industry [41] India - India's manufacturing PMI continued to expand in June, and its manufacturing and service industries have maintained expansion for more than three years [44] Policy and Events - Sino-US and Sweden negotiations extended the tariff truce for 3 months, stabilizing global economic expectations [48] - China strengthened the domestic cycle and started issuing child-raising subsidies [50] - China comprehensively rectified involution-style competition, pushing up commodity prices [51] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the 8th consecutive time, and Germany's military expansion of 30% and a 1.2% month-on-month increase in industrial output in May promoted the recovery of European manufacturing [51] - The US government released the "AI Action Plan", and Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building large data centers [52] Major Asset Strategy Stocks - The rebound of US stocks after April was mainly driven by retail investors, while institutions withdrew [56] - The Shanghai Composite Index has limited downside space, with strong support below 3550 points. After sufficient technical consolidation, A-shares are expected to rise with the inflow of off-market funds, and the four major stock index futures contracts are still bullish [67] Bonds - The US Treasury buys long-term bonds and sells short-term bonds to lower long-term bond yields [58] - Japanese government bond yields are rising due to political turmoil [61] - Inflation trends are impacting long-term government bonds, and there has been a large-scale redemption of bond funds [73] Commodities - The Wenhua Commodity Index bottomed on June 4, soared in July, peaked on July 25, and entered a second-wave correction, which is likely to last until late August and enter the main upward wave before the Fed cuts interest rates in September [70] Gold - Gold is still in a technical adjustment, mainly fluctuating in a sideways range [76] Currency - The RMB is expected to have double surpluses in trade and capital accounts, and is still favored [79]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, signaling that interest rate cuts are not imminent and the policy remains in a vigilant "wait-and-see" mode [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Statement and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve acknowledged a recent slowdown in inflation data, which is seen as a preliminary recognition of potential easing inflation pressures, but emphasized that more positive evidence is needed to confirm a return to the 2% inflation target [3]. - Chairman Powell stated that it is not yet time to consider rate cuts, indicating that such decisions require "more time" and "more conclusive data" [3][5]. - The Fed noted that economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remains low and the job market is stable, with inflation still too high [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's hawkish stance, the US dollar index rose by 0.55%, reflecting its safe-haven appeal, while the US 10-year Treasury bonds faced selling pressure, leading to a significant increase in yields [4]. - Market speculation regarding the timing of the Fed's first rate cut has shifted towards December, indicating that the current high-interest-rate environment will persist for a considerable time, affecting corporate financing costs and consumer credit [5]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Powell highlighted the impact of trade policies, noting that higher tariff rates are beginning to affect the prices of certain goods, but the overall impact on economic activity and inflation requires further observation [5].

| /资者等待逢低布局多单；伦敦金关注3150-3250附近支撑位及3500-3700附近压力位，沪金730-760附近支撑位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦 | | --- | | [银35-37附近支撑位及40-43附近压力位，沪银8600-9000附近支撑位及9500-10000附近压力位。（观点评分：0） | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的推 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证、也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已为求报告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、统论和建议仅供参考，不拘成任何投资建议。投 | | 谈者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资资造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有、未经书面许可、任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和WIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-8-1 ⻩⾦修复性反弹，⽩银延续回落 经历议息会议之夜的利空消息密接轰炸后，⻩⾦⽇内开启修复性反弹， 内盘⻩⾦受到⼈⺠币⾛低的影响，⾛势更为坚挺。美国⼆季度GDP数据超 预期回升，但关税影响下贸易和库存对单季度的影响较⼤，平滑上半年增 速来看，增⻓中枢整体下移的事实客观。后续关税逐渐成为慢变量，关注 其对美国基本⾯及降息预期变化，我们提⽰8⽉下旬的全球央⾏年会更为 重要，关注本周五⾮农数据表现，⻩⾦中⻓期多头趋势并未逆转。 重点资讯： 1）美国上周初请失业金人数为21.8万人，预期22.4万人，前值21. 7万人；四周均值为22.1万人，前值22.45万人；至7月19日当周续请 失业金人数194.6万人，预期195.5万人，前值自195.5万人修正至19 4.6万人。 2）美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升2.8%，预期升2.7%，前值自升2. 7%修正至升2.8%；环比升0.3%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.2%。美国6月 个人支出环比升0.3%，预期升0.4%，前值自降0.1%修正至持平。 3）美国总统特朗普宣布，美国已与 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is potentially bullish, but short - term fluctuations in London gold have intensified. London gold has fallen below the 3300 mark, with key support at 3250 and resistance levels at 3300, 3350, 3370, and 3400. London silver has broken below the 37 area support, showing short - term weakness, and the support has shifted down to 36. The operation strategy remains to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market continued its weakness. After the better - than - expected US small non - farm payrolls and Q2 GDP on Wednesday and Powell's hawkish speech, the better - than - expected US PCE and lower - than - expected weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday further cooled the September interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rose above 100, which was negative for precious metals. Additionally, the US "exemption" of refined copper tariffs caused a sharp drop in US copper prices, dragging down silver prices. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3342.3 per ounce, down 0.31%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.79 per ounce, down 2.51%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 770.28 yuan per gram, down 0.37%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9008 yuan per kilogram, down 2.21% [2]. - Trump said that the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days and threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods imported into the US starting from August 1st. The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a four - month high [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations have cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 61.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 38.2%. For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 39.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 46.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 13.6%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 32.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 7.9% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.86 tons to 954.51 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 87.58 tons to 15062.32 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.06 tons to 1208 tons, and the SGX silver inventory in the week ending July 25th increased by 56.4 tons to 1368.4 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week is data - intensive. On Friday, focus on the US July non - farm payrolls report at 20:30 and the ISM manufacturing PMI at 22:00 [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - Data shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold main - continuous, SGX gold TD, CME gold main, SHFE silver main - continuous, SGX silver TD, CME silver main, SHFE - TD gold, SHFE - TD silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [4][5]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Data presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold inventory, CME gold inventory, SHFE gold position, SPDR gold position, SHFE silver inventory, CME silver inventory, SGX silver inventory, SHFE silver position, and SLV silver position [15]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Data includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously go long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and try to go long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Short on rebounds [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the gold and silver markets are affected by US inflation data and tariff negotiations, facing adjustments, but the long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged due to factors such as central bank gold purchases and loose monetary policies [1][2][3] - Copper has short - term inventory pressure due to the traditional off - season, but is bullish in the long - term because of the tight supply of copper concentrates and the increasing demand from the new energy industry [1][7][8] - Zinc is under short - term pressure due to the off - season and increasing supply, and is recommended to short on rebounds in the long - term as supply increases and demand decreases throughout the year [1][11][12] - Aluminum is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand in the off - season, and short - term rebound shorting is recommended [1][15][16] - Nickel is facing pressure due to weak downstream support and inventory accumulation, and shorting on rebounds is advised [1][19][20] - Lithium carbonate has a bearish outlook in the short - term as the fundamentals show inventory accumulation and weak demand, and shorting on rebounds is recommended [1][23][24] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US inflation data exceeds expectations, which weakens the interest - rate cut expectation, and the tariff risk fades, causing the gold and silver markets to face adjustments [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US - Mexico tariff negotiation is postponed, US data reduces the interest - rate cut expectation, and global gold demand continues to grow. In the short - term, the tariff risk fades, but in the long - term, the long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 760 for gold in the short - term. For silver, wait for it to stop falling and stabilize before going long as its long - term fundamentals are positive [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and falls back, testing the support at the 78,000 level [7] - **Industry Logic**: In the short - term, the contradiction lies in the inventory accumulation in the off - season and the inventory return pressure. In the medium - term, there is a co - existence of tight supply of copper concentrates and high production of electrolytic copper. In the long - term, there is uncertainty in demand due to trade wars and the potential demand explosion in the new energy field [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the tariff adjustment, COMEX copper plummets, and Shanghai copper is under pressure. Wait for copper to fully adjust before lightly going long. In the long - term, be bullish on copper [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates narrowly at a low level [11] - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is loose, and domestic refined zinc production increases. The demand is weak in the off - season [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the macro - sentiment fades, zinc returns to its fundamentals. Short - term pressure causes it to fall back and consolidate at a low level. Partially take profit on previous short positions, and short on rebounds in the long - term [12] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure and weak, and alumina prices fall back [14] - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory accumulates and demand is weak in the off - season. For alumina, the supply - demand pattern is loose [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on short - term rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the inventory accumulation progress in the off - season [16] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure and weaken, while stainless steel rebounds slightly [18] - **Industry Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines falls, and domestic nickel supply - demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Stainless steel production cuts weaken, and there is still over - supply in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduces positions for four consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a drop of over 4% [22] - **Industry Logic**: The total inventory continues to accumulate, but the price increase transfers inventory from upstream to intermediate links. There are risks in Jiangxi's lithium mining licenses, and the market is volatile [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the speculative atmosphere fades, short on rebounds in the range of 68,000 - 70,500 [24]

Group 1 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%, effective August 1 [2] - Mexico has agreed to extend its trade agreement with the U.S. for 90 days, maintaining various tariff rates including 25% on fentanyl and automobiles, and 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper [2] - The U.S. will negotiate with Mexico over the next 90 days to potentially sign a trade agreement [2] Group 2 - President Trump has signed an executive order establishing "reciprocal tariffs" for multiple countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41% [4] - Countries not specifically listed in the executive order will face a uniform tariff of 10% [4] Group 3 - U.S. stock markets experienced a decline despite strong earnings reports from companies like Meta and Microsoft, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices retreating after reaching historical highs [8] - Market reactions have become increasingly difficult to explain, even with robust earnings and capital expenditures [8]

Economic Performance - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 reached 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and significantly higher than the previous quarter's -0.5%[7] - The main supports for GDP growth were a decrease in "import rush," resilient consumer spending, and private non-residential investment[7] - The contribution of net exports to GDP increased to 4.99% in Q2 2025, compared to a drag of 4.61% in Q1 2025 due to the "import rush" effect[10] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change[22] - There is increasing internal division within the Fed, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating growing dissent[22] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and a hawkish stance, suggesting that future decisions will be data-driven rather than politically influenced[22] Inflation and Market Outlook - Inflation is expected to rise due to tariffs, which have not yet fully impacted consumer prices, potentially constraining future rate cuts[23] - The market's expectation for rate cuts has narrowed, with only one rate cut anticipated in October 2025, reflecting a shift in sentiment[23] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to oscillate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of 2025, influenced by rising inflation expectations and economic policies[26] Stock Market Projections - The US stock market may experience short-term volatility but is expected to maintain an overall upward trend, particularly in technology sectors supported by capital expenditures[27] - The anticipated implementation of tax cuts is expected to benefit small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly those represented by the Russell 2000 index[27] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected increases in tariffs leading to significant economic downturns and inflation spikes, as well as challenges to the Fed's independence from political pressures[29]