Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively high. The peak demand season combined with the downstream's remaining restocking space supports the confidence of the raw material market to hold prices firm. In the short term, the futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Coal and Coke Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded with oscillations and closed in the green. Driven by downstream restocking during the holiday, the first round of coke price increase was completed. The price of tamped dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and tamped wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [2] - After the first - round price increase of coke, the profits of coke enterprises have improved. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of around 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner without blockages [2] - Steel mills' operations remain at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintained at around 2.42 million tons, which supports the demand for raw materials [2] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is generally stable, with individual mine prices adjusting downward from high levels. Currently, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end is not obvious, supporting relatively firm prices [3] - The fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coking coal at the pithead has increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the warehouse - delivery equivalent price at about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It is rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance will increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, with the daily customs clearance volume increasing from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, and a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needs continuous tracking [3]

Group 1: Rubber Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Short - term fundamental contradictions of natural rubber are not prominent, and it is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Future attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of La Nina on supply [1]. Summary by Catalog - **Spot Price and Basis**: From September 29th to September 30th, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 250 yuan/ton (-1.72%), the Thai standard mixed rubber quotation decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.34%), and the non - standard price difference increased by 205 (56.19%) [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 75 (214.29%), the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 45 (-100.00%), and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 30 (-300.00%) [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's natural rubber production decreased by 2.00 (-0.43%), Indonesia's decreased by 8.50 (-4.30%), India's increased by 5.00 (11.11%), and China's increased by 12.20. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.58 (-0.08), and that of all - steel tires was 65.72 (0.06). The domestic tire production in August increased by 859.00 (9.10%), the tire export quantity decreased by 364.00 (-5.46%), and the total import quantity of natural rubber increased by 4.60 (9.68%) [1]. - **Inventory Change**: From September 29th to September 30th, the bonded area inventory decreased by 4,663 (-1.01%), and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 908 (-2.11%) [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. For glass, the industry does not have a continuous negative feedback drive for the time being, and over - bearish views are not recommended. In the fourth quarter, the actual implementation of policies in each region and the inventory preparation of downstream industries should be tracked [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: From September 29th to September 30th, glass 2505 decreased by 20 (-1.49%), glass 2509 decreased by 20 (-1.41%), and the 05 basis increased by 20 (15.87%) [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: From September 29th to September 30th, soda ash 2505 decreased by 17.0 (-1.24%), soda ash 2509 decreased by 17.0 (-1.24%), and the 05 basis increased by 17.0 (25.76%) [4]. - **Supply Volume**: From September 19th to September 26th, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.02%, the weekly soda ash production decreased by 1.5 (-2.02%), the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.1 (-0.47%), and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: From September 19th to September 26th, the glass factory inventory decreased by 67.5 (-1.10%), the soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 4.2 (-2.33%), and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 5.9 (10.69%) [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to oscillation again, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [5]. Summary by Catalog - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: From September 29th to September 30th, the price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, the basis of SI4210 decreased by 30 (-3.57%), and the basis of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 30 (-2.63%) [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 40 (400.00%), the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 10 (2.50%), and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 (9.09%) [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 3.51 (9.10%), the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 3.36 (19.78%), the Yunnan industrial silicon production increased by 0.14 (2.41%), and the Sichuan industrial silicon production decreased by 0.08 (-1.49%). The national operating rate increased by 6.07 (10.86%), the Xinjiang operating rate increased by 8.02 (15.25%), the Yunnan operating rate increased by 14.50 (44.09%), and the Sichuan operating rate increased by 7.33 (19.83%) [5]. - **Inventory Change**: From September 29th to September 30th, the Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory decreased by 1.40 (-11.63%), the Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.09 (2.91%), and the Sichuan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.07 (3.06%) [5]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View After the National Day holiday, the polysilicon price is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range. Given the support of the spot price, the fluctuation range may be between 50,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the specific schedule and implementation details of the industry's state - reserve policy, the actual operating rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises in October, as well as the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic module factories [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Spot Price and Basis**: From September 29th to September 30th, the average price of N - type re - fed material remained unchanged, the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 80.00 (-6.30%) [6]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract increased by 80 (0.16%), the spread between the current month and the first - continuous decreased by 205 (-91.11%), and the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous decreased by 60 (-2.40%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production decreased by 0.14 (-1.01%), and the polysilicon production increased by 0.01 (0.32%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 (-1.29%), the polysilicon import volume increased by 0.01 (5.11%), and the polysilicon export volume decreased by 0.01 (-3.92%) [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 2.20 (10.78%), the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 0.64 (-3.79%), and the polysilicon contract increased by 140.00 (1.76%) [6].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the potassium and phosphorus fertilizer industry trends, focusing on global supply and demand dynamics for 2024 and 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Insights on Potassium Fertilizer - **Global Supply and Demand**: - In 2024, global potassium fertilizer supply is expected to reach a historical high, primarily due to recovery in production from Canada, Russia, and former Soviet Union countries, although not fully back to 2021 levels [1]. - Global demand for potassium fertilizer is driven by price declines, government support, and increased soybean demand from South America [1][3]. - China's resource-type potassium fertilizer production is projected to grow slightly by 1.65% in 2024, with a significant increase of 15.6% in sulfate of potash (SOP) production [2]. - **Cost Trends**: - The global on-site cost for potassium fertilizer in 2024 is estimated at $128 per ton, a decrease of 5.8% year-on-year, with a slight increase to $131 per ton expected in 2025 [10]. - **Future Supply Projections**: - Global potassium fertilizer supply in 2025 is expected to remain stable or slightly lower than in 2024, with potential increases from Russia and Belarus [5][7]. - New potassium fertilizer capacity of 14.7 million tons is anticipated from 2025 to 2029, with approximately 40% of the investment coming from China [7]. - **Market Dynamics**: - High contract prices for 2025 are attributed to low inventory levels in overseas markets and operational impacts from major suppliers [11]. Key Insights on Phosphorus Fertilizer - **Demand Factors**: - The demand for phosphorus fertilizer is influenced by declining inventory levels and increased consumption in the renewable energy sector [3][12]. - Phosphate rock production is expected to grow significantly in the first half of 2025, with Hubei and Yunnan provinces contributing over 60% of the total production [13]. - **Supply and Capacity**: - New phosphorus rock capacity is projected to be close to 65 million tons from 2025 to 2029, but only about 30% of this is expected to be realized [14]. - Domestic self-sufficiency in phosphorus rock is around 98%, with imports becoming increasingly necessary due to production shortfalls [15]. - **Price Trends**: - Phosphate rock prices have surged since 2020, with high-grade resources nearing 1,000 RMB, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical factors [19]. - Future prices are expected to stabilize between 800 to 1,000 RMB if new capacity does not meet expectations [21]. Additional Important Insights - **Environmental and Operational Challenges**: - Tailings pond backfilling is crucial for reducing subsidence risks, which can impact long-term potassium fertilizer production [6]. - The BHP Jansen Lake project has faced delays, pushing its production timeline from 2026 to mid-2027 due to budget overruns and extended timelines [9]. - **Market Outlook**: - The overall market for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers is expected to remain stable, with traditional demand patterns continuing, while renewable energy sector demand is anticipated to grow significantly [22]. - **Production Calculations**: - Phosphate rock production is calculated based on a standard ore content of 30%, with discrepancies noted between reported and actual production levels due to utilization rates [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the potassium and phosphorus fertilizer industries, their current status, and future outlooks.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply increment is obvious due to short - process losses and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, and PXN is expected to compress. Suggest to treat PX11's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 6500 [2]. - PTA: Supply is expected to shrink due to low processing fees and postponed new plant commissioning. However, demand growth is limited, and the basis is weakly volatile. Suggest to treat TA's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 4500; conduct a rolling reverse spread on TA1 - 5 [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply - demand is gradually weakening. It will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter. Suggest to sell call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and conduct a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 [2]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. It has support at low levels but weak rebound drivers. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [2]. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is loose. PR follows the cost side. Suggest that the strategy for PR is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the main disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The market in Shandong may see price cuts in the short - term. It can be shorted in the short - term [29]. - PVC: The market is weakly volatile. Supply is expected to increase next week, and demand growth is limited. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Pay attention to downstream demand [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. In the short - term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. Suggest that BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and crude oil [31]. - Styrene: Demand is fair but with limited growth. Supply is expected to decrease. The absolute price is under pressure. Suggest to treat EB11's rebound with a short - bias and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [31]. Urea Industry - Urea: The futures price is weakly running due to the contradiction between high supply and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern is likely to remain weak in the future. The price may continue to be under pressure, but it may form a bottom support near the production cost [39]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: PP production has decreased recently, and PE inventory has been destocked. The 01 contract may face large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upside space [43]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. The price is weakening, and the basis is slightly weakening. The overall valuation is neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point [46]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil: The overnight oil price fell due to concerns about supply surplus outweighing geopolitical risk premiums. The fundamental outlook is bearish. Suggest to wait and see on the single - side trading, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side after the volatility increases [52]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha also declined [2]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and MEG will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most segments in the polyester industry chain decreased or remained stable on a weekly basis [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot showed minor changes. The export profit of caustic soda increased slightly, while that of PVC decreased [29]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased. The inventory of caustic soda in North China increased, while that in East China decreased. PVC total social inventory increased slightly [29]. - **Downstream Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased, while that of PVC's downstream products such as pipes and profiles showed minor changes [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. The cash flows of some downstream products improved [31]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased, while styrene's increased. The开工率 of some segments in the industry chain changed slightly [31]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of urea decreased. The basis in some regions changed significantly [39]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea production increased, and the inventory in factories increased while that in ports decreased. The order days of production enterprises decreased [39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand from agriculture and industry remained weak, and the开工率 of compound fertilizer enterprises declined [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PE and PP futures and spot decreased. The basis of PE and PP changed slightly [43]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: PP production decreased due to losses in some production routes, and PE inventory was destocked. The 01 contract may face inventory accumulation pressure [43]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The PE装置开工率 increased, while the PP装置开工率 decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP increased slightly [43]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased. The basis and regional spreads changed [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The domestic and overseas开工率 of methanol enterprises changed slightly. The inventory in ports increased, and the overall social inventory increased slightly [46]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The upstream - domestic and overseas企业开工率 of methanol decreased slightly, while the downstream - MTO装置开工率 increased [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined oil prices showed minor changes on September 23 compared to September 22. The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products also changed [52]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply increased due to Iraq's increased exports and planned pipeline resumption. Demand is under pressure due to economic concerns and seasonal decline [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - **PX**: Short - term expected to be volatile and weak. PX11 to be treated as oscillating between 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Short - term to oscillate between 4600 - 4800; TA1 - 5 to be rolled in reverse arbitrage. Mid - term supply - demand is weak [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: 9 - month outlook is positive, but Q4 is expected to enter a stockpiling phase. EG to be observed unilaterally; EG1 - 5 for reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Low - level support exists, but rebound drive is weak. Unilateral strategy same as PTA; processing fees to oscillate between 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: PR to follow cost, with limited upside for processing fees. Unilateral strategy same as PTA; main - contract processing fees to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry - Urea futures are weakly operating. Supply is rising while demand lacks growth. Policy intervention on coal prices cannot reverse the surplus. Short - term, the futures are expected to be weak [8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: After a rebound, it is re - adjusting. Supply may decline due to maintenance. Demand from the alumina industry is stable, but overall, it may continue to be weak in the short - term. Spot prices may stabilize [11]. - **PVC**: After a rebound, it is re - adjusting. Supply may decrease due to maintenance, and demand is slightly improving. Cost support is at the bottom. It can be short - sold at high levels [11]. Methanol Industry - Supply is at a high level, and inventory is relatively healthy. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Valuation is neutral. The market is wavering between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations. Follow - up focus on inventory inflection points [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: Supply may be higher than expected, and demand is weak. Short - term price is affected by geopolitics and macro factors. BZ2603 to follow styrene oscillations [60]. - **Styrene**: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand support is average. Port inventory is declining, but still restricts price increases. EB10 to be bought at low levels, and the spread between EB11 - BZ11 to be widened at low levels [60]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices are oscillating. The refined oil market provides support, but macro - economic concerns limit the upside. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Unilateral observation is recommended [63]. Polyolefin Industry - **LLDPE and PP**: PP has more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, with a weak basis. PE has more maintenance, a rising basis, and inventory reduction. Demand orders are poor. Focus on pre - holiday restocking [68]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) decreased by 0.8% to 67.44 dollars/barrel; CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.6% [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4% to 6680 yuan/ton; DTY150/48 price remained unchanged at 7960 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX decreased; PX - crude decreased by 1% to 397 dollars/ton [2]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2% to 4630 yuan/ton; TA futures 2601 decreased by 1% to 4712 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - related**: MEG port inventory decreased by 460,000 tons to 9.4 million tons; EG futures 2601 decreased by 0.7% to 4297 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices**: Urea 01 contract decreased by 0.65% to 1670 yuan/ton; methanol main - contract decreased by 1.26% to 2346 yuan/ton [7]. - **Spot Prices**: Shandong (small - particle) decreased by 0.61% to 1640 yuan/ton; FOB China: small - particle remained unchanged at 424 dollars/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.82% to 195,600 tons; enterprise inventory increased by 2.88% to 1.1653 million tons [8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.4% to 2500 yuan/ton; V2509 decreased by 0.7% to 5347 yuan/ton [11]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port increased by 1.3% to 395 dollars/ton; export profit increased by 120.2% to 5.8 yuan/ton [11]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 3% to 650 dollars/ton; export profit decreased by 77.2% to 13.5 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: PVC total operating rate increased by 4.2% to 79.4%; alumina industry operating rate increased by 1.5% to 82.8% [11]. Methanol Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: MA2601 decreased by 1.26% to 2346 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia north - line spot decreased by 0.95% to 2090 yuan/ton [55]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048%; methanol port inventory increased by 0.48% to 1.558 million tons [55]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 72.66%; downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 8.72% to 75.08% [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.5% to 738 dollars/ton; pure benzene - naphtha decreased by 4.5% to 130 dollars/ton [60]. - **Styrene - related Prices**: Styrene East China spot decreased by 1.1% to 7100 yuan/ton; EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.1% to 7062 yuan/ton [60]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 6.9% to 134,000 tons; styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 9.9% to 159,000 tons [60]. - **Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4% to 79.096%; domestic styrene operating rate decreased by 5.9% to 75% [60]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.75% to 67.44 dollars/barrel; SC decreased by 1.27% to 490 yuan/barrel [63]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.13% to 201.4 cents/gallon; ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.39% to 702.5 dollars/ton [63]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: European gasoline decreased by 2.44% to 19.03 dollars/barrel; US diesel decreased by 2.48% to 34.45 dollars/barrel [63]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: L2601 decreased by 0.79% to 7188 yuan/ton; PP2601 decreased by 0.8% to 6926 yuan/ton [68]. - **Spot Prices**: East China PP raffia decreased by 0.59% to 6760 yuan/ton; North China LDPE film decreased by 0.56% to 7120 yuan/ton [68]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 451,000 tons; PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 582,000 tons [68]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%; PP device operating rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9% [68].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not explicitly stated, but market is in a weak state [6] - Methanol: Not explicitly stated, continues to fluctuate at a low level [6] - Pure Benzene: Not explicitly stated, price is at a low level with potential improvement [3] - Styrene: Not explicitly stated, supply - demand situation has improved [3] - Polypropylene: Not explicitly stated, supply may slightly decrease, demand is weak [2] - Plastic: Not explicitly stated, no specific rating - related content provided - PVC: Not explicitly stated, runs with an upward bias under macro - expectations [7] - Caustic Soda: Not explicitly stated, expected to be in a wide - range oscillation pattern [7] - PX: Not explicitly stated, no specific rating - related content provided - PTA: Not explicitly stated, price is driven by raw materials, pay attention to device reduction [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Not explicitly stated, at a low - level oscillation [5] - Short Fiber: Not explicitly stated, positive configuration for near - month contracts [5] - Bottle Chip: Not explicitly stated, long - term pressure from over - capacity [5] - Glass: Not explicitly stated, runs with an upward bias, price may follow macro - sentiment [8] - Soda Ash: Not explicitly stated, runs strongly, long - term supply surplus [8] - Propylene: Not explicitly stated, supply is expected to increase, demand support may weaken [2] 2. Core Views - The chemical futures market shows a mixed trend, with different products having their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as new device production, seasonal demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] - In general, many products are facing the influence of supply - demand relationships and macro - factors, and price trends are complex. Some products may follow macro - sentiment, while others are mainly driven by raw materials or cost factors [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene: The futures main contract closes slightly higher. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support may weaken as some downstream devices stop work [2] - Polyolefins: The futures main contract fluctuates narrowly. PE demand increases with the rise of downstream factory operating rates, and supply decreases due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. PP supply may slightly decrease, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: The night - session price opens high and closes low. Weekly production slightly increases, and the processing margin oscillates at a low level. The domestic market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppress market sentiment [3] - Styrene: The futures main contract fluctuates narrowly. Supply contracts, driving the spot price to stabilize and rise slightly. Downstream demand is supported by good profits and increased operating rates [3] Polyester - PTA: New device production is postponed. TA - PX spread oscillates. It is in a continuous de - stocking state, but processing margin and basis weaken. Demand shows a good trend, but polyester filament inventory is relatively high and profit is poor [5] - Ethylene Glycol: It oscillates at a low level. Domestic production decreases slightly, and port inventory continues to decline. Pay attention to the trial - run of new devices [5] - Short Fiber: Supply - demand is stable, and price fluctuates with cost. Before the National Day, downstream has restocking expectations, and near - month contracts can be configured long [5] - Bottle Chip: Downstream has rigid demand procurement. Basis and processing margin rebound, but over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The main contract continues to fluctuate at a low level. Import volume decreases, and port inventory accumulation slows down. Demand from the olefin industry increases, and port goods flow to the inland. Pay attention to overseas gas - restriction [6] - Urea: The market remains weak. Supply is sufficient, and production enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. Industrial demand recovers, and agricultural demand has a phased replenishment expectation [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Runs with an upward bias under macro - expectations. Supply pressure is high. Downstream operating rates increase slightly, and pay attention to pre - holiday restocking demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Runs with an upward bias in an oscillatory manner. Regional performance is differentiated. Overall inventory is small, and it is expected to oscillate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Runs strongly. Inventory decreases, and production remains high. Pay attention to macro - favorable policies, and long - term supply is in surplus [8] - Glass: Runs strongly. Inventory decreases, and downstream restocking sentiment increases. Capacity slightly recovers, and processing orders improve. Price may follow macro - sentiment [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Methanol Industry - The methanol market has a relatively healthy inventory pattern due to high supply in the inland and continuous external procurement by some olefin plants, which supports prices. However, demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, and the overall valuation is neutral. The market is currently swaying between high inventory and weak basis in reality and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Last week, oil prices oscillated, with the main trading logic being the continuous game between the supply - tightening expectation caused by geopolitical risks and concerns about weak macro - demand and supply surplus. In the short term, the market may continue to maintain a range - bound pattern in the tug - of - war between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and a strategy of expanding spreads for option trading [7]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the spot price may stabilize, and the decline space of the futures price may be limited. Attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of alumina plants and device fluctuations. For PVC, the overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September. Attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [12]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly, mainly due to the phase mismatch between the continuous increase in supply and weak domestic demand. Although export orders support some enterprises, the export's ability to digest inventory is limited. The market sentiment is restricted by high inventory and weak demand [18]. Polyolefin Industry - The market shows a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand", and the core contradiction is not obvious. For PP, the PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, and the basis is still weak. For PE, the current maintenance is relatively high, and the short - term supply pressure is small, but attention should be paid to the supply rhythm. Attention should also be paid to downstream restocking before the Double - Festival [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak, and the price driving force is weak. In the short term, BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene. The weekly supply - demand of styrene has improved, and there is an expectation of further improvement in the future. The low price of styrene has support, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [43]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the supply is increasing to a relatively high level, and the short - term demand has some support, but the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. However, the cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fee repair driving force are limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand is weak, and it mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. For bottle - chips, the supply increases slightly, and the demand may decline, and the processing fee space is limited [47]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 closed at 2379, down 0.34%; MA2509 closed at 2230, up 0.77%. The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59% [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.97%, and the overseas upstream operating rate decreased by 2.52%. The downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37%, while the formaldehyde operating rate increased by 8.92% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent closed at 66.99, up 0.93%; WTI closed at 62.69, up 0.51%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 7.50% [7]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.31%, and NYM ULSD increased by 0.35%. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread increased by 3.13%, and the ULSD M1 - M3 spread increased by 104.46% [7]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of Shandong 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC was 4680, unchanged [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PVC operating rate increased by 4.2%, and the caustic soda operating rate data was unavailable. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed varying degrees of increase [12]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The 01 contract of urea futures closed at 1671, up 0.12%. The 05 contract remained unchanged, and the 09 contract decreased by 1.12% [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily output increased by 0.11%, and the weekly output increased by 1.58%. The plant - level inventory increased by 3.44%, and the port inventory decreased by 11.52% [17]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: L2601 closed at 7169, down 0.55%; PP2601 closed at 6913, down 0.37%. The basis of North China LL decreased by 12.50%, and the basis of East China PP increased by 5.26% [21]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70%. The PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.3% [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil increased by 0.9%, and WTI crude oil increased by 0.5%. The price of CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 0.8%, and the price of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene increased by 1.2% [43]. - **Styrene Price and Spread**: The East China spot price of styrene decreased by 1.0%, and the EB2510 futures price decreased by 0.9%. The EB - BZ spot spread decreased by 2.1% [43]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.9%, and the price of WTI crude oil increased by 0.5%. The price of CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 0.8%, and the price of CFR China PX decreased by 0.7% [47]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash Flow**: The price of POY150/48 remained unchanged, and the cash flow decreased by 1.9%. The price of FDY150/96 remained unchanged, and the cash flow decreased by 27.2% [47].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply and demand sides of coal and coke have implemented production cuts, but most of the production cut cycles are short. Attention should be paid to the resumption process. The market sentiment is generally cooling down but still fluctuating, and prices are under pressure and oscillating [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices oscillated, and there was a rapid rise near the close of the night session. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak sales, and prices were stable with a slight decline. The first round of coke price reduction has been implemented [3]. Supply Side - Last week, due to the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi stopped production for maintenance, leading to a significant decline in coal production. This week, production is gradually recovering. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coal mines this week is 72.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons. Mine - end inventory has decreased [3]. Demand Side - Last week, the steel mill production cut expectation was realized. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was 228.84 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.23 million tons. Most steel mills resumed production on September 4, and short - term hot metal output tends to rise. However, due to factors such as continuous inventory accumulation of finished products and narrowing steel mill profits, raw material demand will face challenges later [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Plastic, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Urea, PVC, Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Glass are all rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different product trends. Some products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, cost factors, and seasonal demand changes. Attention should be paid to the balance of different product chains, oil price fluctuations, new capacity, and the rhythm of seasonal demand recovery [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range intraday consolidation. Downstream cost pressure led to reduced demand, and production enterprises were more willing to offer discounts [2] - Polyolefin futures continued to consolidate in a low - level range. PE supply increased while demand entered the traditional peak season. PP supply was relatively loose, and actual demand recovery was slow [2] Pure Benzene - Domestic benzene continued to rebound, with improved low - price demand after a decline. In the third quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve [3] - Styrene futures closed higher. Cost support was insufficient, and there was high inventory pressure at the terminal [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices stopped falling and fluctuated at a low level. Terminal demand was improving, and attention should be paid to the balance of PX - polyester and oil price fluctuations [5] - Ethylene glycol prices fluctuated at a low level. Supply and demand were intertwined, and there was resistance to further decline [5] - Short - fiber supply and demand were stable, and prices mainly fluctuated with costs. Positive hedging could be considered if demand improved [5] - Bottle - chip profits were passively repaired, but over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose. Supply increased significantly, and inventory continued to accumulate, but the market was expected to strengthen [6] - Urea market oscillated at a low level. Domestic production decreased, but was still high year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of Indian tenders [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated strongly. Cost support was not obvious, and there was a game between low valuation and weak reality [7] - Caustic soda oscillated strongly. There were regional differences, and the price was expected to oscillate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was strong. The supply pressure was high, and long - term over - supply was expected. Short - selling at high rebounds was recommended [8] - Glass was strong. Spot prices continued to decline, but the price was expected to rise if the macro - sentiment improved [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term, urea may follow the macro - sentiment and run strongly; mid - term, it is in an oscillating and pressured pattern. In the short - term, the September 3rd parade and other key events support the equity market, and the overall export of urea may support the spot price, with the futures having speculative value. In the medium - term, urea is in a high - inventory and high - premium pattern, with large fundamental pressure and may remain weak and pressured in the long - term [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: - Urea主力: The closing price was 1,746 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,747 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), the trading volume was 158,733 lots (down from 183,096 lots), the position volume of the 01 contract was 219,382 lots (down 892 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 7,205 tons (unchanged), and the trading volume was 554.611 million yuan (down 81.64 million yuan) [2]. - Basis: The Shandong region basis was - 36 yuan (up 7 yuan), the Fengxi - futures price difference was - 136 yuan (down 13 yuan), the Dongguang - futures price difference was - 36 yuan (down 3 yuan), and the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 69 yuan (up 4 yuan) [2]. - **Spot Market**: - Urea factory prices: Henan Xinlianxin was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged), Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Ruixing was 1,670 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Shanxi Fengxi was 1,610 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Hebei Dongguang was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Jiangsu Linggu was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Trader prices: The Shandong region was 1,710 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the Shanxi region was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Supply - side indicators: The operating rate was 79.64% (down 0.74 percentage points), and the daily output was 186,300 tons (down 1,740 tons) [2]. 2. Industry News - On August 27, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0858 million tons, an increase of 61,900 tons from the previous week, a 6.05% increase. The domestic urea price fluctuated at a low level, domestic demand advanced slowly, and some enterprises' shipments were less than expected, resulting in a slight increase in inventory. Some provinces' enterprise inventories increased, while others decreased [3].