| 碳酸锂日评20251204:偏弱震荡 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-02 | 较昨日变化 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-03 | 2025-11-26 | 近两周走势 | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 92200.00 | 94960.00 | 94260.00 | -2,760.00 | 1 | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | -2.800.00 | 92060.00 | 94860.00 | 94500.00 | 收盘价 | 92200.00 | 95140.00 | -2,940.00 | 94660.00 | 连二合约 | | | | -2.940.00 | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 92200.00 | 95140.00 | 94700.00 | -2,900.00 | 收盘价 | 93660.00 | 96560.00 | 96340.00 | | | | | 3 | 砖 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex and diversified situation, with different commodities and sectors presenting various trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and seasonal patterns. Market participants should pay close attention to these factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US refined oil and crude oil inventories. The external market oil price fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Although there are some short - term positive news, the supply - demand surplus expansion determines that the oil price center has a downward pressure [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is relieved, but the supply is still expected to be loose in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is also alleviated, and attention should be paid to whether the end - of - year shipping peak season and winter power generation demand can improve its supply - demand structure [19] - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiated price trend. The demand in Northeast and North China is gradually stagnant, while the South China market is weak. The weekly shipment volume is at a low level in the past four years, and it is expected that BU will continue to be weak [20] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. Silver's upward trend slowed after hitting a new high, and gold also showed fluctuations. Platinum has a supply gap this year, and palladium is in a tight - balance supply - demand situation. Platinum is stronger than palladium in performance [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, while Shanghai copper showed some resilience in the previous trading - intensive area. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions increased slightly, and the spot discount slightly expanded. The aluminum market's fundamental contradictions are limited, and it is testing the previous high of 22,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic supply and demand of zinc both decreased, while the overseas zinc ingot spot is tight. The LME zinc is running at a high level, and the export window is open, driving the domestic market up. The bottom support of zinc is strong, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open, transferring the overseas surplus pressure to the domestic market. The domestic refined - scrap lead price difference is 25 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is at a low level. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down, and Shanghai tin fluctuated with a positive line above 300,000 yuan. It is not recommended to chase the high, and a medium - to - long - term short - allocation with a hedging strategy is suggested [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market is driven down by the decline in polysilicon prices. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the DMC price trend [10] - **Iron & Steel Related** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment is strong, and the domestic arrival volume is high. The port inventory is accumulating. The demand for iron ore may further decline. The market has expectations for policy benefits, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [13] - **Coke**: The coke price oscillated strongly during the day. The market has expectations for downstream replenishment. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has a slight increase. The price is expected to maintain a rebound in the short term [14] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price oscillated strongly during the day. The market expects downstream replenishment. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated during the day. The spot price of manganese ore increased. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of the reduction in Ghana's shipment [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated during the day. The market expects coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power cost and blue - carbon price. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the export demand has decreased. The supply of silicon iron has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly [17] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene's price slightly increased. The supply of polyethylene has limited changes, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply of polypropylene is expected to slightly increase, and the short - term demand is also weak [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillates. The export situation may improve, and the supply pressure may be relieved. It is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda oscillates weakly. The supply is high, and the downstream demand is insufficient [26] - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX and PTA is driven down by the oil price. PTA continues to cut production, and the demand for PX is weak in the short term. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to be repaired [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. The supply has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. However, it is expected to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and its price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip's demand is weak, and the over - capacity is a long - term pressure [29] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean planting progress is different. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. The 05 contract has reached the upper edge of the oscillation platform, and attention should be paid to the US soybean export and South American weather [33] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil's near - month contract is reducing positions and shifting positions. The supply of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in November, and the Indonesian export policy is favorable. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound [34] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The relationship between China and Canada has not improved, and rapeseed is oscillating at the bottom. Rapeseed meal's demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly destocking. The rapeseed series is expected to oscillate in a range [35] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans are oscillating strongly. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight. The US soybean is affected by South American weather and export factors, and is expected to oscillate strongly [36] - **Corn**: The spot market drives the corn futures to oscillate at a high level. The new grain supply is lower than expected, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. Attention should be paid to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [37] - **Pork**: The pork futures fluctuate narrowly, and the spot price is slightly down. The southern curing will start soon, but there is also pressure from the second - fattening pigs. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures rose sharply and then fell. The far - month contract should not be chased up, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly [39] - **Cotton**: The US cotton slightly decreased. The domestic cotton supply pressure is not large, and the new cotton sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn price is stable, and the new orders are insufficient. The industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillates. The production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the production in Guangxi is expected to be good [41] - **Apple**: The apple futures oscillate at a high level. The spot price is strong, and the inventory is lower than last year. In the long - term, there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contract [42] - **Wood**: The wood futures oscillate. The supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short term, the demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the price [43] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures rose sharply yesterday. The domestic port inventory is still high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [44] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell with reduced volume yesterday. The stock index futures all closed down. The external market is mixed. The short - term macro - liquidity factor has uncertainties, and a wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [45] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures oscillate. The six major banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - value deposits. The bond market sentiment is cautious, and the long - term interest rate lacks the basis for a large - scale increase [46]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-3 纸浆大幅拉升，或因利空前期充分交易 油脂：近日棕油和豆油相对偏强 蛋白粕：内外盘期价震荡，豆菜粕价差或扩大 玉米/淀粉：东北华北价格分化，期货维持震荡 生猪：供应充裕，价格趋弱 天然橡胶：维持小幅震荡 合成橡胶：原料出口消息点燃市场激情，基本面变化不大 棉花：棉价持续反弹，套保压力限制上方空间 白糖：糖价震荡徘徊，供应压力边际增大 纸浆：期货大幅拉升，或因利空前期充分交易 双胶纸：原料端反弹，双胶纸向上修复 原木：原木反弹修复估值 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 农业团队 研究员： 刘高超 从业资格号：F3011329 投资咨询号：Z0012689 王聪颖 从业资格号：F0254714 投资咨询号：Z0002180 吴静雯 从业资格号：F3083970 投资咨询号：Z0016293 李艺华 从业资格号： F03086449 投资咨询号： Z0019380 程也 从业资格号： F03087739 投资咨询号： Z0019480 周重廷 从业资格号：F03093821 投资咨询号：Z0020578 刘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-03 现实预期博弈，盘⾯上涨乏⼒ 12⽉中央经济⼯作会议即将召开，海外仍有降息预期，宏观环境偏 暖，但⽬前钢材库存⽔平依旧同⽐偏⾼，需求⾯临转弱压⼒，钢材盘 ⾯上涨乏⼒。铁矿在冬储补库预期下仍有较强⽀撑，需求承压煤焦现 货价格表现疲软，玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 12月中央经济工作会议即将召开，海外仍有降息预期，宏观环境偏 暖，但目前钢材库存水平依旧同比偏高，需求面临转弱压力，钢材盘 面上涨乏力。铁矿在冬储补库预期下仍有较强支撑，需求承压煤焦现 货价格表现疲软，玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水环比下降，钢厂盈利率进一步压缩，后续仍有 部分钢厂安排高炉检修计划，铁水预计延续走弱态势，刚需支撑逐渐 弱化。海外矿山发运环比小幅回升，澳洲发运减少，巴西发运环比大 幅增加，非主流发运略降，本期到港环比减量，港口库存环比继续累 积，全国钢厂进口矿库存下滑，补库需求暂未明显释放，前期价格回 升后进一步上行支撑不足，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢到货偏低， 价格下降后性价比回升，长、短流程钢企废钢需求均有支撑，下方空 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：富宝有色） 核心提示：本周废铝价格稳中上涨，幅度0-100元/吨不等，合金白料、喷涂、铝线价格表现略好于生 铝、铝屑等铸造铝合金原料；预计下周废铝偏稳运行，涨跌空间有限；铝企下游订单不温不火，成品售 价处于贴水状态、利润不足，一定程度上限制废铝原料价格反弹。但华东、西南等多地废铝市场供应偏 紧亦支持其抗跌属性较强，综合来看，预计下期废铝或延续偏稳运行。 一、国内再生铝合金市场分析 1、再生铝合金市场情况 期内A00铝锭重心继续下移，整体表现先涨后跌；截止11月27日，富宝现货A00铝价格在21440-21480 元/吨，均价21460元/吨，环比11月20日跌110元/吨；富宝现货ADC12铝合金锭价格20800元/吨，环比11 月20日平稳；目前华东地区非交割品ADC12铝合金锭主流价格在20600-20800元/吨之间，华南ADC12主 流价格20900-21000元/吨，西南地区ADC12铝合金锭主流价格在20800-21100元/吨，环保11月20日平 稳。交割品价格多高100-200元/吨不等。 期内铸造铝合金期货先抑后扬，主力合约盘中一度跌至2.02万附近，随后陆续抬升，扳 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Prices are supported at the 3000 low but the upside is limited due to weak demand. Steel production is likely to decline gradually as the industry awaits the implementation of the production cut logic [2]. - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. With steel prices under pressure, demand for these alloys is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus will continue to weigh on prices [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, the current decline may be nearing its end from a valuation perspective. However, the market may need to wait for a while from a driving force perspective, and the next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - The fundamentals of iron ore remain weak with clear upward pressure. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate due to reduced steel production, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605 and HC2605 were 3105.00 yuan/ton and 3281.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.38% and 0.33%. The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2601 and HC2601 were 3093.00 yuan/ton and 3293.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.13% and 0.27% [1]. - The price is in a narrow - range oscillation. There is an impulse to rebound, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. The industry contradiction is not prominent, and the price is likely to remain within the range. The production cut logic needs time to be realized [2]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with an interval oscillation mindset; consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [8]. Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - The prices are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. The macro - policy has expected benefits but is unconfirmed. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply - demand surplus persists, and prices will be under pressure [3][5]. - Investment strategy: Investment clients can short on rallies, and industrial clients can use put - writing options to protect their spot exposure [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts J2605 and JM2605 were 1751.00 yuan/ton and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.43% and 0.21%. The closing prices of near - month contracts J2601 and JM2601 were 1607.00 yuan/ton and 1071.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spot market sentiment is weakening, with coke having a price cut expectation and most coking coal spot auctions falling. From a valuation perspective, the decline is approaching the end, but the market may need to wait for a while. The next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with a short - term mindset for now, wait and see for the medium - and long - term, and liquidate hedging short positions [8]. Iron Ore - The short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipment is not greatly affected. With the decline of molten iron and steel production, the inventory will continue to accumulate. Although the price has rebounded at the bottom of the range, it is difficult to break through the range due to inventory pressure [7]. - Investment strategy: Hold short positions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the articles is the recent decline in pure benzene futures prices, with expectations of continued volatility in the market due to supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 24, pure benzene futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 5421.0 yuan, with the main contract closing at 5455.0 yuan, down 1.68% [1]. - The latest commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports is 147,000 tons, which is an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous period, representing a 30.09% rise; compared to the same period last year, it is up by 29,300 tons, or 24.89% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: The operating rate of petroleum benzene is currently at 76.67%, down 1.31% from the previous week, with new maintenance schedules for some facilities [3]. - Demand side: The downstream weighted operating rate is at 73.52%, showing a slight increase, but overall terminal demand remains weak, limiting support for pure benzene prices [3]. - The overall demand for pure benzene is declining due to reduced needs from downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, aniline, and adipic acid, while phenol demand remains stable [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The market sentiment is influenced by external factors, with the benzene price spread remaining stable at $104/ton compared to the previous week [3]. - The expectation of a gradual improvement in supply and demand for pure benzene is noted, particularly as the U.S. market's supply gap will rely on imports, potentially affecting China's import share [3]. - However, the recent decline in gasoline crack spreads poses a risk to cost support, leading to expectations that pure benzene prices may enter a range-bound trading phase [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [3][4] - Thermal Coal: Sideways with a Bullish Bias [5] Core Views - Steel has inventory pressure, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Iron ore supply pressure remains, and prices will likely oscillate at high levels. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to early release of warehouse receipt pressure. Thermal coal prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, influenced by the winter heating season and other factors [1][2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated weakly, and spot transactions were generally dull, with low - price rigid demand as the main driver. National building materials transactions were 9.23 tons, a 4.14% decrease from the previous day. Building materials production and sales declined, inventory decreased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, inventory declined, and consumption increased [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials production decreased, inventory continued to decline, apparent consumption was weak, and the fundamentals continued to face pressure. The contradictions of high inventory and high production of strip materials have not been resolved. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and subsequent winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading: Sideways; Other strategies: None [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices maintained a sideways trend, spot prices rose slightly, and transactions improved. National main port iron ore cumulative transactions were 72.1 tons, an 18.98% increase from the previous day [2] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remained at a high level, inventory continued to increase, and steel mills were losing money and reducing production. There was a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal. However, considering the limited arrival volume of iron ore, the downward adjustment space for ore prices was insufficient, and they would likely maintain a range - bound operation. Subsequent hot metal production and downstream inventory changes need to be monitored [2] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading: Sideways; Other strategies: None [2] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices continued to fluctuate weakly. Imported Mongolian coal prices at ports declined due to the downward transmission of futures prices, and market trading volume continued to decline [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic production gradually recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level, and seaborne coal imports increased. Speculative demand decreased, and downstream maintained a rigid procurement rhythm. For coke, after four rounds of price increases, coking enterprise profits improved, but supply did not increase significantly. Although hot metal increased slightly, further steel mill production reduction plans need to be monitored. Currently, the coking coal trading focus is on the warehouse receipt value, and the market avoids subsequent warehouse receipt pressure through early price drops [3] - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Sideways; Coke: Sideways; Other strategies: None [3][4] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, coal prices rose slightly, and downstream procurement was acceptable, mostly on a demand - based basis. Supply was relatively stable, but some resources were difficult to ship, and miners were still optimistic. Port inspections were still strict, and some coal mines sold a small amount of goods as their tasks were almost completed. At ports, transactions were mainly long - term contracts, and downstream resistance to high - priced coal was high, with market coal transactions relatively cold. Due to gale - induced port closures, inventory slowly increased. Imported coal still had profit margins, and the market was active [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the producing areas was limited, and downstream procurement was more cautious. However, with the arrival of the winter heating season, port inventory accumulation was lower than expected, and non - power downstream demand was strong. Short - term prices will fluctuate strongly, and overall consumption and restocking need to be monitored [5]

Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

Report Overview - Research Variety: Iron ore - Report Cycle: Daily - Date of Report: November 17, 2025 - Research Analyst: Feng Jiayu [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On November 17, 2025, the iron ore futures market had prices rising in an upward - trending oscillation. The price increase was driven by rising macro - policy expectations and short - term demand recovery. However, the fundamental situation of iron ore has not fundamentally improved, and the market is in a structural game. Short - term prices are supported by policy expectations and a phased increase in demand, while medium - to long - term prices face pressure from a continuous supply surplus, shrinking steel mill profits, and high port inventories. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 750 - 820 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include policy signals from important meetings, the sustainability of the increase in steel mill hot - metal production, and the process of port inventory reduction [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market Conditions - On November 17, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract showed an upward - trending oscillation. The lowest point was 767.5, the highest was 791, and it closed at 788.5, with a 1.81% increase. The trading volume was 351,300 lots, an increase of 84,900 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 481,400 lots, an increase of 1,019 lots from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The 12 iron ore futures contracts showed a backwardation market pattern with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. All contracts generally rose, with the increase ranging from 3.5 to 14 points. The total open interest of the variety was 907,493 lots, an increase of 6,657 lots compared to the previous trading day. The i2605 contract had the largest increase in open interest, with an increase of 4,639 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 45.9 yuan/ton, a minimum of 39 yuan/ton, and 39 yuan/ton on the reporting day [8]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 900 lots, a minimum of 800 lots, and 900 lots on the reporting day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Demand Side - The steel mill hot - metal production increased slightly to 236,880 tons per day on a month - on - month basis. However, steel mill profits continued to deteriorate, the number of maintenance plans increased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the hot - metal production may decline in a step - by - step manner in the future [9]. 3.3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - Hawkish remarks from Fed officials suppressed the risk appetite for commodities. In China, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment widened, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down, and terminal demand weakened seasonally [10].