Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a downward trend in the casting aluminum alloy market, with significant price declines observed in both futures and spot markets [1][2] - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy closed at 23,155 yuan, down 385 yuan or 1.64%, with a trading volume of 18,793 lots, a decrease of 1,010 lots [1] - Spot prices for various casting aluminum alloys, such as A356.2 and A380, have also decreased by 300 yuan, with average prices reported at 26,100 yuan and 25,200 yuan per ton respectively [1] Group 2 - On the macroeconomic front, the Ministry of Finance announced a reduction in battery export tax rebates to 6% starting April 2026, leading to a preemptive "export rush" and a subsequent decrease in short-term buying momentum [2] - The raw material side shows strong prices for primary aluminum, but tight supply of imported and domestic scrap aluminum, along with tax adjustments, has increased costs in some regions, providing support for casting aluminum prices [2] - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and year-end influences, with alloy plants operating at only 58% capacity due to environmental controls and insufficient orders, particularly affecting the automotive sector's consumption of casting aluminum [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The destocking of the five major steel products continued during the pre - holiday market. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved, with prices forming some support at low levels. The market drivers were limited, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Overall, the destocking may gradually slow down, and the upward momentum of prices is insufficient. Steel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term, but the downside space is limited. Iron ore is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, but high port inventories will put pressure on its subsequent trend. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][4][5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - During the pre - holiday market, the five major steel products continued to destock. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved, and prices at low levels provided some support. The market drivers were limited, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil both increased production. Rebar's weekly output was 188.22 tons (up 2.08% week - on - week and down 8.64% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil's weekly output was 304.51 tons (up 3.74% week - on - week and up 0.58% year - on - year). Rebar's blast furnace and electric furnace production both increased. The blast furnace weekly output was 157.49 tons (up 1.62% week - on - week and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the electric furnace weekly output was 30.73 tons (up 4.49% week - on - week and up 8.17% year - on - year) [13][17][22]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces both increased. The national blast furnace operating rate was 78.94% (up 0.79% week - on - week and up 0.29% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 68.63% (up 1.48% week - on - week and up 1.13% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: Rebar's profit increased, while hot - rolled coil's profit slightly decreased. Rebar's profit was +48 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil's profit was - 29 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 58 yuan/ton year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: Rebar's demand slightly decreased, while hot - rolled coil's demand increased. Rebar's apparent consumption was 200.44 tons (down 1.11% week - on - week and up 5.47% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.66 tons (down 1.54% week - on - week and down 8.07% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil's apparent consumption was 310.77 tons (up 1.21% week - on - week and up 2.66% year - on - year) [32][36]. - **Inventory**: Rebar's inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Rebar's factory inventory was 139.37 tons (down 0.49% week - on - week and up 14.76% year - on - year), social inventory was 282.66 tons (down 3.92% week - on - week and down 1.53% year - on - year), and total inventory was 422.03 tons (down 2.81% week - on - week and up 3.31% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil's inventory decreased, with factory inventory rising and social inventory decreasing. Factory inventory was 82.32 tons (up 2.24% week - on - week and up 0.59% year - on - year), social inventory was 288.64 tons (down 2.72% week - on - week and up 24.01% year - on - year), and total inventory was 370.96 tons (down 1.66% week - on - week and up 20.79% year - on - year) [37][41][42][46]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, both the commercial housing and land markets declined month - on - month. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% month - on - month and 16.33% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 74.78% month - on - month and 49.44% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year. Production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month - on - month, and 2.8% and 3.4% year - on - year [47][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month. The price index of iron ore was 107.92 (up 1.05% month - on - month and up 11.23% year - on - year). The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 3059.6 tons (up 8.70% month - on - month and up 23.36% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2756.4 tons (up 5.96% month - on - month and down 2.75% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to increase, and the port clearance volume increased. The daily output of hot metal was 227.43 tons (up 0.85 tons week - on - week and up 2.23 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 325.21 tons (up 3.22% week - on - week and up 2.18% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 31.88 days (up 0.76% week - on - week and down 9.2% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore port inventories continued to reach new highs, and steel enterprises' iron ore inventories increased. The inventory at 45 ports was 15970.89 tons (up 0.71% week - on - week and up 6.45% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8949.54 tons (up 0.97% week - on - week and down 9.25% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 25.42 days (up 0.95% week - on - week and down 7.43% year - on - year) [66][70]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines decreased month - on - month, while Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 79.63% (down 5.44% month - on - month and down 10.21% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 35.09% (down 3.39% month - on - month and up 7.37% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 19.05 tons (up 49.47% month - on - month and up 33.49% year - on - year) [72][76]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased month - on - month. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 65.25% (down 4.07% month - on - month and down 4.47% year - on - year), and the weekly transaction rate was 71.74% (down 12.94% week - on - week and up 54.91% year - on - year) [77][79]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants slightly recovered month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate slightly increased. The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 14 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 2 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 70.74% (up 0.55% month - on - month and down 2.45% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke was 85.58% (up 0.07% month - on - month and down 0.34% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventories increased month - on - month, and coking plant inventories increased. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 896.10 tons (up 1.42% month - on - month and up 1.02% year - on - year), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 802.50 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month and up 3.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 301.3 tons (up 0.60% month - on - month and down 39.59% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventories increased slightly, and coking plant inventories decreased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 48.7 tons (down 2.87% month - on - month and down 3.91% year - on - year), the coke inventory of steel mills was 643.99 tons (up 0.28% month - on - month and down 1.67% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 180.09 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month and up 4.57% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1500 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1340 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 220 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][102]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar slightly shrank, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil both shrank. The coil - to - rebar spread continued to shrink, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore shrank [104][108].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are all "oscillating" [7][8][82] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate in the new energy industry are all expected to oscillate. Industrial silicon has increasing supply, decreasing demand, and fluctuating inventory; polysilicon has a speculative sentiment, and its supply and demand will both decrease in December, but the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve; lithium carbonate has strong terminal demand, and the industrial chain is in a game over long - term contract prices, with short - term price increases and risks of chasing high prices [7][8][82] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%, and the number of operating furnaces is 243, a week - on - week increase of 3. The production in Xinjiang has increased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased. The production in November was 401,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the planned production in December is 401,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% and a year - on - year increase of 20.78% [7] - **Demand Side**: For polysilicon, the weekly production is 26,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%, and the factory inventory is 308,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly production is 45,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42% [7] - **Inventory Side**: The explicit inventory is 503,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78%, and the industry inventory is 456,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30%. However, the warehouse receipt inventory is 47,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52% [7] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,091 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52%, and the gross profit per ton is - 92 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton [7] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply center is moving to the northwest, the demand is weak, and the inventory is fluctuating [7] 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 26,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%. The production in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is 9,500 tons, 8,300 tons, 400 tons, and 1,200 tons respectively. The production in November was 114,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.48% and a year - on - year increase of 2.69%; the planned production in December is 113,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 16.65% [8] - **Demand Side**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 10.50GW, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32%. The new installed capacity in November 2025 was 22.02GW, a year - on - year decrease of 11.92% and a month - on - month increase of 74.76% [8] - **Inventory Side**: The factory inventory is 308,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%, and the registered warehouse receipts are 11,910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.47% [8] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 42,322 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.55%, and the gross profit per ton is 7,889 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 126 yuan [8] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The price is expected to oscillate. Although the supply and demand will both decrease in December, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is a speculative sentiment in the short term [8] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 22,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The production in November was 95,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.35% and a year - on - year increase of 49.00%; the planned production in December is about 98,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00% and a year - on - year increase of 40.97% [82] - **Import Side**: In November, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 677,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year increase of 40.42% [82] - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate is 101,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.08%, and the weekly production of ternary materials is 19,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.25% [82] - **Terminal Demand**: In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative bidding for energy storage was 201.5GWh, a year - on - year increase of 44%, and the cumulative winning bids were 153.2GWh, a year - on - year increase of 170.67% [82] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 10,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59%, and the lithium salt factory inventory is 17,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% [82] - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external ore purchase is 109,946 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.18%, and the production profit is - 9,014 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,986 yuan/ton [82] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The price is expected to oscillate. The terminal demand is strong, but the price has risen rapidly in the short term, and there is a risk of chasing high prices [82]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The recent market sentiment has slightly improved, and prices have seen a phased rebound. However, the fundamentals are still weak, lacking support for price rebounds, and are expected to remain volatile before the holiday [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated widely and closed slightly higher on a weekly basis. Spot prices of coking coal in various regions showed weak stability. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke. After the price drop, downstream may replenish raw materials, but there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the market [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, coal mines reduced production at the end of the year. Coking enterprises started to replenish inventory moderately, but overall market transactions remained weak, and mine - end inventories continued to accumulate. The raw coal output of coking coal mines decreased by 5.4 tons week - on - week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week. Raw coal and clean coal inventories increased by 4.2 tons and 10.1 tons respectively. The average daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port last week was 19.44 tons, a decrease of 1.26 tons from the previous week and an increase of 13.78 tons year - on - year. The customs clearance volume declined significantly in the second half of the week. The current inventory in the port supervision area is at a relatively high level. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed on December 29 for the Mongolian National Liberation and Independence Day and resume on December 30; they will be closed again on January 1 for New Year's Day and resume on January 2 [3]. - **Demand**: Demand remained stable. The average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling at 226.58 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1.29 tons year - on - year, and is expected to remain at this level in the short term [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel industry shows a slight decline in production and sales, with prices remaining volatile, and there are seasonal decline expectations for building materials demand. The iron ore industry has a slight increase in molten iron production and continuous inventory accumulation, and the iron ore price may face downward pressure. The coking coal and coke industry has supply pressure and prices fluctuate slightly. The thermal coal industry has a supply contraction at the end of the year and continuous price drops at ports [1][3][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures maintained volatile trading. This week, the output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, demand declined month - on - month, and inventory continued to decline. Among them, rebar production increased, consumption decreased, and inventory decreased; hot - rolled coil production and sales increased, and inventory declined at an accelerated pace. Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of building materials continue to improve, off - season consumption maintains resilience, production increases slightly, and inventory continues to decline. The demand for building materials still has a seasonal decline expectation. The production and sales of plates improve, demand maintains resilience, and high inventory continuously suppresses plate price performance, with the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continuing to weaken [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' procurement was mainly based on rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 1.341 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.11%; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 0.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100.00%. The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week was 2.2658 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons. The total inventory of iron ore at 45 ports in this period was 158.59 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated. For coke, the spot market price remained stable, and downstream procurement willingness was insufficient; for coking coal, the prices in the main production areas showed mixed trends, and the overall market was still in a wait - and - see state. For imported Mongolian coal, the sentiment at the port improved slightly, and some Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was traded at about 960 - 1000 yuan/ton [5] - **Strategy**: For coking coal and coke, unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, the coal prices in the main production areas fluctuated. Recently, some coal mines stopped production or reduced production after completing their annual tasks, and the overall supply contracted. At the ports, the thermal coal market remained weak, and prices continued to decline to a low - level range. In the import market, the imported coal market remained stable. The demand for imported medium - and high - calorie coal types was average, with prices remaining stable or weak, and the quotes for low - calorie coal generally increased slightly [8] - **Strategy**: Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but there are still expectations of seasonal decline in demand. The high inventory of plates continues to suppress price performance [1]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with prices fluctuating narrowly. The supply of iron ore is relatively sufficient, but due to reduced liquidity of some port supplies, the price remains high. The demand for iron ore is marginally weakening, and there will be downward pressure on prices if port supply liquidity recovers [3]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is in a weak balance, and prices are maintaining an oscillating trend. After the third round of price cuts for coke, the supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the price is still under pressure. The supply of coking coal is tightening, but demand is insufficient, and the fundamentals are weak [5][6]. - The price of thermal coal in the production area has stopped falling and stabilized, while the port price is continuously declining. Near the end of the month, the supply is shrinking, demand is stable, and the price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is still loose [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Steel futures oscillated, and according to Steel Valley data, steel inventory decreased yesterday, with hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing faster and demand rising. Building material inventory decline converged, and demand slightly decreased [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of building materials are improving, with off - season consumption maintaining resilience, a slight increase in production, and continuous decline in inventory. With cooling, there are expectations of seasonal decline in demand. Plate production declined, consumption and exports slightly decreased but remained resilient. High inventory continued to suppress plate prices, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar weakened [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1.288 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.51%. The cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 835,000 tons (10 transactions), a month - on - month decrease of 14.80% [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is accumulating, the price remains relatively high, and the supply is relatively sufficient. However, due to reduced liquidity of some port supplies, the price remains high. Some steel mills are reducing production to relieve restocking pressure, and short - term restocking willingness is insufficient. If port supply liquidity recovers, the price will face downward pressure [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated. Some steel mills controlled coke purchases, providing weak support for coke. Some coking coal varieties with inventory pressure saw prices drop by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and overall transactions were average. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port for imported Mongolian coal remained high, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was weakly stable at around 960 - 980 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply - demand and logic: After the third - round price cut for coke, production increased slightly, and pig iron production remained low. The short - term supply - demand of coke was in a weak balance, and the price was still under pressure. The supply of coking coal tightened as some coal mines completed their annual tasks and stopped or reduced production, but downstream demand was insufficient, and the fundamentals were weak [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation; Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, coal prices oscillated. Some coal mines stopped or reduced production after completing annual tasks, and the supply tightened. The market maintained rigid procurement, and the sales of some cost - effective coal mines improved slightly, with a few coal types slightly increasing in price. At the port, the market was still weak. Some rigid demand and short - covering inquiries near the end of the month increased slightly, and the pessimistic sentiment eased slightly. The actual procurement by downstream power plants and end - users was still weak, and short - term prices were weak. The imported coal market was stable, with the demand for medium - and high - calorie coal average and prices weakly stable. The demand for low - calorie coal increased, and quotes rose slightly [8]. - Supply - demand and logic: Near the end of the month, the supply contracted, demand was stable, and the price oscillated. In the long - term, the supply was still in a loose pattern [8]. Strategy - Not provided in the content

Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 106,800 yuan/ton and closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, with a -0.79% change compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,013,916 lots, and the open interest was 672,711 lots, up from 668,589 lots the previous day. The current basis was -10,850 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 15,636 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Spot - According to SMM data, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 95,300 - 99,800 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 93,900 - 96,000 yuan/ton, also up 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,340 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The market transactions were rare, mainly supported by the rigid demand of some enterprises. The supply of lithium salt plants was stable, with an expected 3% month-on-month increase in domestic lithium carbonate production in December. The demand was supported by the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets, but the production schedules of cells and cathode materials were expected to decline slightly month-on-month in December. The industry maintained a pattern of "steady increase in supply and stable demand at a high level", with the de-stocking trend continuing but at a slower pace. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons, and the total inventory was 110,425 tons [2] Group 3: Strategy - The decline of lithium carbonate was due to technical overbought repair and profit-taking. The continuous de-stocking, certain consumption support, and supply uncertainty were key factors supporting the strong price. In the short term, it was likely to maintain a high-level shock. Attention should be paid to the production capacity release rhythm and capital trends, and be vigilant against the intensified fluctuations caused by the marginal changes in supply and demand [3] Group 4: Trading Recommendations - Unilateral: Wait and see in the short term - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - The current supply - demand pattern for soybean meal has not changed, with high oil refinery operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. The overall price of soybean meal is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - For corn, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has led to a tight supply. As prices reach a relatively high level and holidays approach, the grain sales progress is expected to accelerate. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises' demand is rigid [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2756 yuan/ton, a change of - 21 yuan/ton (- 0.76%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2331 yuan/ton, a change of - 28 yuan/ton (- 1.19%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: As of December 12, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 94.1%, higher than 90.3% a week ago and the five - year average of 90.6%, but lower than 96.8% in the same period last year [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2206 yuan/ton, a change of - 14 yuan/ton (- 0.63%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2512 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.40%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [3] - Market news: As of December 11, the sowing of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2025/26 season was completed. The rainfall in southern Brazil last week relieved the pressure on corn growth. The predicted total corn output in the 2025/26 season is 1.353 billion tons, lower than the record - high output of 1.411 billion tons in the 2024/25 season [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices opened high and closed low. The market is expected to remain in a weak supply - demand situation in December. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, with potential to reach 10000 yuan/ton if production drops significantly, or fall to 7500 yuan/ton under certain negative scenarios. Attention should be paid to position management [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices are oscillating higher. There is a contradiction between the strong futures market and weak spot demand. The current price is in a high - level oscillation. Future trends depend on the extent of production cuts. The trading strategy for the main contract (now 2605) is to wait and see [3]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, but Indonesian exports increased in November, causing tin prices to decline. However, considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider buying on dips [5]. Nickel - The nickel market is under fundamental pressure. Macro factors have limited impact on nickel prices. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price has fallen, and domestic inventory is increasing rapidly. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 110000 - 118000 yuan/ton [7]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure is slightly relieved, and nickel - iron prices have stopped falling, providing cost support. However, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory reduction is insufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose overall. The fundamentals are in a situation of strong supply and demand. The market is affected by news such as the slow resumption of production of large mines. The price may be strong in the short - term under the influence of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement in the off - season [10]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina supply is in an oversupply situation, with high inventory suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with the main contract reference range of 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but may face a pullback. The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate between 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [12]. Zinc - Zinc prices are oscillating. The supply side is gradually shifting from loose to tight, and demand has shown structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory, with the main contract support at 23000 - 23200 yuan/ton [15]. Copper - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The high price is driven by supply - inventory imbalance and macro factors. The supply side may face tightness, and the demand is being suppressed. The price is expected to have limited downside space, with the main contract support at 90000 - 91000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are oscillating strongly, with strong cost support but weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement in scrap aluminum supply and downstream purchasing rhythm [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained stable on December 12 compared to December 11, while the basis decreased significantly. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 16.39% [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 150.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, while polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Most inventories increased slightly on a weekly or daily basis, such as the Xinjiang factory - level inventory increasing by 3.39% on a weekly basis [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, while the N - type material basis decreased by 41.13% [3]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads**: The main contract of polysilicon futures rose by 2.56%. The spreads between different contracts showed significant fluctuations, such as the near - month to the first - continuous contract spread decreasing by 1206.25% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. Polysilicon imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39% [3]. Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices decreased by 1.76% on December 16 compared to the previous value, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 22.73% [5]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratios**: The import loss decreased by 8.14%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 18.06% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. Refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 7.66%, and social inventory increased by 5.59% [5]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices decreased by 0.72% and 0.70% respectively. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 1.92% [7]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Production Costs**: The production cost of integrated MHP - based electrolytic nickel increased by 0.19%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte - based electrolytic nickel decreased by 3.60% [7]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed small changes, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased by 5.10%, and social inventory increased by 3.73% [7]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable, while that of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 20.99% [8]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of most raw materials remained stable, such as the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remaining at 57 US dollars/wet ton [8]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed slightly, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36%. Stainless steel imports increased by 3.18%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.69%, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.30% [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.69% and 0.71% respectively. The basis increased by 0.69% [10]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 120 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11%. In October, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [10]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.54%, and the alumina average price remained stable. The electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased by 1977 yuan/ton [12]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different aluminum contracts showed various changes, such as the AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 35 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, and overseas production decreased by 3.50%. In October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 0.61%, and exports decreased by 15.18% [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.17%, and the aluminum rod social inventory increased by 8.58% [12]. Zinc - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.97%, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratios**: The import loss decreased by 813.46 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.03 [15]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. In October, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79% [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 7.57%, and LME inventory increased by 4.12% [15]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 1.42%, and the premium increased by 80 yuan/ton [16]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread decreasing by 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and in October, imports decreased by 15.61%. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 0.51% [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.62%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58%, and the SHFE inventory increased by 0.54% [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.69%. The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 25 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84%. In October, imports decreased by 7.06%, and exports increased by 31.49% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08% [18].