投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-10 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担忧。同时，美国冬 季风暴 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream overall start - up of polyolefins continued to decline. The polyolefin market was affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - sentiment, with the overall situation being weak. The supply - demand fundamentals of PE and PP were not substantially reversed and showed signs of weakening, with large destocking pressure. The short - term disk trends were expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - level guidance and the destocking process [2][3] - For the strategy, it was recommended to wait and see for L/PP in the single - sided trading. For the cross - variety trading, it was advisable to cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it was high [4] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - Period Structure - The L main contract closed at 6,777 yuan/ton (- 141), and the PP main contract closed at 6,676 yuan/ton (- 125). The LL North China spot was 6,650 yuan/ton (- 80), the LL East China spot was 6,850 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the PP East China spot was 6,680 yuan/ton (+ 0). The LL North China basis was - 127 yuan/ton (+ 61), the LL East China basis was 73 yuan/ton (+ 141), and the PP East China basis was 4 yuan/ton (+ 125) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 85.9% (+ 0.6%), and the PP operating rate was 73.9% (- 0.9%). The PE oil - based production profit was - 88.5 yuan/ton (- 105.0), the PP oil - based production profit was - 498.5 yuan/ton (- 105.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 450.8 yuan/ton (- 88.0) [1] 3. Non - Standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - Not elaborated on specific data in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was 13.2 yuan/ton (+ 54.6), the PP import profit was - 282.1 yuan/ton (+ 4.7), and the PP export profit was - 60.1 US dollars/ton (+ 19.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 30.2% (- 4.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 38.8% (- 3.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 36.7% (- 5.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 64.6% (+ 0.4%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not elaborated on specific data in the text

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillatory adjustment [1][6] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][11] - L: Bearish trend continues [15] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1][19] - PVC: Range - bound oscillation [1][23] - PTA: Range - bound consolidation, expect positive outlook [2][27] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2][30] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2][33] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [2][38] - LNG: Oscillatory consolidation [5][42] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5][46] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [5][51] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [5][55] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends, core drivers, and supply - demand situations of multiple energy and chemical products, providing investment strategies and price range suggestions for each product based on factors like geopolitical situations, cost changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations [1][2][5] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, oil prices declined. WTI dropped 2.84%, Brent fell 2.75%, and domestic SC rose 1.13% [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term, geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East persist. Core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with increasing global crude inventories. US crude and refined product inventories are both rising, putting downward pressure on oil prices [8][9] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC + maintained its production policy unchanged in the February 1st meeting, pausing production increases in March. US crude production is gradually rising as the impact of the cold wave subsides. Indian crude imports in December increased 1.6% month - on - month. As of January 30th, US crude inventories decreased by 3.45 million barrels [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Short - term, it will oscillate and adjust with increased volatility. Pay attention to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. SC should focus on the range [465 - 480] [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On February 5th, the PG main contract closed at 4,197 yuan/ton, down 0.85% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,470, 4,446, and 4,845 yuan/ton respectively [11][12] - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost of oil prices. In the long - term, oil prices are under pressure. Supply is stable, but downstream chemical demand is weakening, and inventories are accumulating [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to move down. Short - term, due to uncertainties in oil prices and a bearish fundamental outlook, focus on the range [4150 - 4250] [14] L - **Market Review**: L05 closed at 6,777 yuan/ton, down 2.0% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Cost factors such as oil and ethane prices are falling. Production is expected to continue increasing. Before the Spring Festival, demand is weak. Pay attention to the situation after the festival [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [6700 - 6900] [18] PP - **Market Review**: PP05 closed at 6,676 yuan/ton, down 1.8% [20] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it follows cost fluctuations. In the off - season, inventories are accumulating in the upstream and mid - stream. The supply - demand situation is weak, with a 20% shutdown ratio. PDH profits are low, providing cost support. Pay attention to future demand verification [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [6550 - 6750] [22] PVC - **Market Review**: V05 closed at 5,155 yuan/ton, up 1.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Weekly export orders are weakening, and social inventories are at a record high. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is at a low level, providing bottom - line cost support. However, long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [4900 - 5100] [26] PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation has improved, with better processing fees. Supply is relatively stable as domestic devices are under planned maintenance. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the pressure is not significant [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamental outlook is positive. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips for the 05 contract. TA05 should focus on the range [5090 - 5230] [29] MEG - **Market Review**: EG05 closed at 4,081 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [30] - **Basic Logic**: Low - valuation has been repaired. Domestic production load has increased, while downstream demand is seasonally weak. Port inventories are rising, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 should focus on the range [3690 - 3790] [32] Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [33] - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is at a high valuation level. Domestic production load remains high, while overseas devices are significantly under - loaded. Demand has weakened significantly. Cost support is relatively stable. Geopolitical conflicts and cold weather in North America bring short - term positive factors [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between weak current reality and strong future expectations. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. MA05 should focus on the range [2200 - 2260] [37] Urea - **Market Review**: UR05 closed at 1,777 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall production load is rising, and demand is short - term strong but expected to weaken as it enters the holiday off - season. There are upper and lower limits on prices due to policies [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply and demand are both strong, but downstream demand support is expected to weaken. Cautiously chase up. UR05 should focus on the range [1760 - 1790] [41] LNG - **Market Review**: On February 4th, the NG main contract closed at 3.458 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 2.40% [42][43] - **Basic Logic**: The impact of the cold wave has diminished, and prices have gradually declined. Domestic LNG retail profits have increased. Supply decreased in January, and demand in Japan declined in 2025. US natural gas inventories decreased but were higher than the same period last year and the five - year average [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, demand supports prices, but supply is relatively sufficient. NG should focus on the range [3.329 - 3.680] [45] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 5th, the BU main contract closed at 3,339 yuan/ton, down 0.65% [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause oil prices to oscillate strongly. Asphalt profits have declined. Supply in February decreased, and demand imports and exports increased in 2025. Inventories have risen [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high. Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. There are uncertainties in supply. Be cautious about risks. BU should focus on the range [3300 - 3400] [50] Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 closed at 1,088 yuan/ton, down 1.9% [52] - **Basic Logic**: Daily melting volume has slightly decreased, and the supply - demand is weakly balanced. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, with high - level inventory accumulation. Demand is in the off - season. More supply cuts are needed to reduce inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [1050 - 1100] [54] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 closed at 1,229 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [56] - **Basic Logic**: Heavy - soda demand has declined, and factory inventories have risen for two consecutive weeks. Real - estate demand is weak, and heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and production capacity utilization has decreased. Be cautious about chasing up before further maintenance [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [1170 - 1220] [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost side of PE and PP is disturbed by factors such as the rebound of international oil prices and propane, and the market sentiment is cautious, with the disk tending to fluctuate. The supply - demand fundamentals of both are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The short - term disk rebound sustainability needs to pay attention to the macro - level guidance and the de - stocking process [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for L/PP in the unilateral strategy, as the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak and the rebound sustainability may be limited [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton (+53), PP main contract at 6801 yuan/ton (+71). LL North China spot was 6730 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot 6850 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 188 yuan/ton (-53), LL East China basis - 68 yuan/ton (-3), PP East China basis - 121 yuan/ton (-71) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 85.4% (+0.7%), PP operating rate 74.8% (-1.2%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 16.5 yuan/ton (-128.9), PP oil - based production profit - 343.5 yuan/ton (-128.9), PDH - based PP production profit - 362.8 yuan/ton (+25.2) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 41.4 yuan/ton (-52.8), PP import profit - 286.8 yuan/ton (-2.9), PP export profit - 79.5 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 34.6% (-1.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 42.1% (-2.9%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 42.0% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 64.2% (+0.2%) [1] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost side is disturbed by the rebound of international oil prices. The supply is increasing and the demand is decreasing. The supply pressure is expected to rise due to the restart of many devices and more incoming resources. The demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2] - **PP**: The cost side is disturbed by the rebound of propane and international oil prices. The supply is difficult to be significantly supported, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the disk is affected by the cost and macro - sentiment [2] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see for L/PP, as the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak and the short - term cost side fluctuates strongly, and the rebound sustainability may be limited [3] - **Inter - period**: None [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘缓和，油价回落，短期仍有较强不确定性。地缘：中东地缘拉扯， | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 美伊谈判仍有较大不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动： | | ★ | | 供给过剩格局仍未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量： | | | | 美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘缓和，成本端油价大幅回落，液化气跟随油价回落。成本端油价 | | LPG | | 短期受地缘扰动反弹走强，沙特上调 2 月 CP 合同价，成本端利好；供需 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工 | | | | 需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 两油石化库存重新累库，寒潮影响阶段性回落，盘面回吐地缘和天气溢价， | | ★ | 空头盘整 | 短期产业可关注逢高套保机会。近期装置陆续回归，预计本周产量环比增 | | | | 加，基差跌至同期低位，关注后市需求验证情况。 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Cost - side support for polyolefins has declined, leading to a correction in polyolefin futures. The supply - demand fundamentals of both PE and PP are weak, and the rebound sustainability is limited. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for L and PP [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,878 yuan/ton (-136), and that of the PP main contract is 6,714 yuan/ton (-110). LL North China spot is 6,800 yuan/ton (-50), LL East China spot is 6,850 yuan/ton (-70), and PP East China spot is 6,680 yuan/ton (+40). LL North China basis is -78 yuan/ton (+86), LL East China basis is -28 yuan/ton (+66), and PP East China basis is -34 yuan/ton (+150) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 is 85.4% (+0.7%), and PP开工率 is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is -115.3 yuan/ton (-30.1), PP oil - based production profit is -635.3 yuan/ton (-30.1), and PDH - based PP production profit is -505.3 yuan/ton (+25.9) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is 76.7 yuan/ton (-31.9), PP import profit is -328.7 yuan/ton (-43.8), and PP export profit is -74.1 US dollars/ton (+0.3) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 is 34.6% (-1.8%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 is 42.1% (-2.9%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 42.0% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film开工率 is 64.2% (+0.2%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: International oil prices have dropped significantly, weakening the cost - side support for plastics. The supply is expected to increase due to the restart of many devices and more arriving imported resources, while the demand is in the off - season with a decline in overall downstream开工率. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the de - stocking pressure is large [3] - **PP**: The cost - side support of propane has declined, and international oil prices have dropped, causing the PP futures and spot prices to fall. The supply is difficult to be strongly supported, and the demand is in the off - season with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for L and PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuates strongly, and the macro and capital factors cause greater disturbances. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the rebound sustainability may be limited [5] - **Inter - period**: Not provided - **Inter - variety**: Not provided

Group 1 - Nickel futures market experienced a significant sell-off due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on liquidity tightening, with LME nickel closing down 2.91% at $17,045 per ton, a decrease of $510 per ton from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 132,670 yuan per ton, down 3,860 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.83% [1] - The LME nickel inventory reported on February 2 was 285,528 tons, a decrease of 756 tons from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The SHFE nickel futures opened lower, with the main contract starting at 132,640 yuan, down 3,890 yuan, and continued to decline throughout the trading session [2] - The sharp decline in nickel prices was attributed to a dramatic reversal in U.S. monetary policy expectations, particularly following the nomination of a hawkish figure as Fed Chair, which raised concerns about prolonged high interest rates and potential balance sheet reduction [2] - Strong U.S. manufacturing data provided support for tightening policies, leading to a surge in the U.S. dollar index, which negatively impacted the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities and triggered a collective withdrawal of global funds from the commodity market [2] Group 3 - Nickel prices are expected to exhibit a "volatile consolidation with slight declines" in the short term, with a focus on the price range of 134,000 to 135,000 yuan per ton [3] - The short-term price movements are primarily influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and liquidity conditions, while medium to long-term price recovery is anticipated as macro shocks are gradually absorbed [3] - Structural tightening in global nickel supply and increasing demand from downstream sectors such as new energy are expected to drive prices into a recovery channel in the future [3]

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - LME three-month copper prices continued to decline, reaching a three-week low, as speculators exited the market after prices surged to record highs the previous week. However, positive economic data from China limited the extent of the decline [1][6] - On February 2, LME three-month copper closed down by $266.00, or 2.02%, at $12,891.50 per ton [2] - Despite the recent price drop, LME copper prices have increased by 33% over the past six months, with concerns about potential supply shortages due to mine shutdowns [3] Group 2: Speculative Activity and Price Dynamics - Speculators withdrew from the market after a rapid price increase, with WisdomTree's commodity strategist expressing a positive long-term outlook for copper prices but acknowledging the need for a healthy market correction [3] - Analysts warned that the sharp rise in copper prices was not supported by fundamental supply and demand factors, with Macquarie's analyst suggesting that prices should fall below $11,000 per ton to reflect fundamentals [4] Group 3: Other Metals Performance - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month nickel prices dropping by 6.28% to $16,827 per ton and three-month tin prices plummeting by 10.32% to $46,591 per ton [7][8] - Three-month aluminum and lead prices fell by 2.8% and 2.29%, respectively, with aluminum closing at $3,056.00 per ton and lead at $1,963.00 per ton [2][9] Group 4: Chinese Economic Impact - Positive manufacturing data from China in January helped stabilize market sentiment, with increased export orders and production growth noted [6] - However, as the Chinese New Year approaches, industrial consumers are hesitant to purchase high-priced copper, indicating a weakening demand outlook [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in commodity prices is primarily driven by emotional panic rather than a collapse in the fundamental supply and demand dynamics of the commodities themselves [2][6]. Group 1: Causes of the Decline - The core reason for the market crash is the collapse of sentiment in precious metals, which led to a sell-off across various sectors, including non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Two key news events acted as "triggers" for the market panic: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, raising concerns about the end of the "cheap money era," and the easing of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which reduced the "geopolitical risk premium" in oil prices [3][4]. - The market was already saturated with speculative positions and high leverage, which exacerbated the sell-off when negative news emerged, leading to forced liquidations and a vicious cycle of price declines [5][6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Despite the sharp declines, the fundamental support for copper and aluminum remains intact. Issues such as declining ore grades and limited new supply for copper persist, while demand from sectors like home appliances and electric vehicles is expected to rise [8][10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The oil and chemical sectors experienced significant declines due to the removal of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns over weak global oil demand. However, coal and salt chemicals showed resilience as their costs are more tied to domestic coal prices [11][12]. - **Black Metals**: The black metal sector is facing pressure from both weak seasonal demand and the negative sentiment from precious metals. However, the rate of inventory accumulation is not alarming, providing some buffer against drastic price drops [13]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural commodities are less affected by the recent market turmoil, as their prices are primarily driven by domestic supply and demand factors, making them more resilient to macroeconomic fluctuations [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to distinguish between emotional market reactions and the intrinsic value of commodities. The current market turmoil is seen as a temporary emotional response rather than a fundamental shift in value [15][20]. - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wait-and-see approach, avoiding aggressive positions until market volatility decreases and signs of stabilization appear [16][19]. - Preparation for future opportunities is essential, including reassessing the supply-demand dynamics of favored commodities and planning entry strategies [17][18].

但2月2日油价盘中跌幅一度超过5%。瑞银在其最新发布的一份研究报告中称，本轮油价的大幅攀升， 核心驱动力并非供需基本面的根本性改善，而是伊朗局势升级引发的风险溢价上升。 瑞银强调，油价上涨的可持续性高度依赖地缘冲突的演变。若伊朗及周边地区的能源基础设施未受到实 质性冲击，油价将面临显著回调风险，这与2025年6-7月的市场走势具有相似性——当时地缘紧张局势 缓解后，油价出现了阶段性回落。 01 关键变量：霍尔木兹海峡关闭概率低 原本走势强劲无比的黄金白银突然崩盘，看空情绪也传导到了能源市场。 霍尔木兹海峡的通航状态是影响全球石油贸易的"生命线"，也是本次报告重点关注的核心风险点。 2026年开年以来，受伊朗相关地缘局势紧张影响，布伦特原油价格累计上涨近20%至每桶约70美元。 伊朗供需：产量稳定，出口合理 作为石油市场的关键风险变量，伊朗的石油生产与出口格局并未出现大幅异动。根据国际能源署(IEA) 数据，过去几个月伊朗石油产量保持稳定，2025年12月原油日均产量达到340万桶，展现出较强的生产 韧性。 出口方面，伊朗原油出口量从2025年10月190万桶/日的近期高点回落至约150万桶/日，但仍处于近期形 ...