Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2601, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term and intraday views are "shock and weak", and the reference view is "weak operation". The weak supply - demand situation dominates, leading to a weak and volatile trend for both [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained a shock - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.77% to 14,845 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a shock - weak trend on Wednesday [5]. - **Driving Logic**: After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Busan, South Korea, although there were positive developments in economic and trade tariffs, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - long sentiment faded, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market saw profit - taking. The rubber market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, putting pressure on rubber prices [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed a shock - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.83% to 10,095 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a shock - weak trend on Wednesday [7]. - **Driving Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, after the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents, the positive results in economic and trade tariffs were slightly lower than expectations. As the macro - long sentiment faded, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market entered a "reality - dominated" stage, with investors becoming more cautious [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber 2601 and synthetic rubber 2601 are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and weakly oscillatory respectively, and the same for the intraday view [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Performance**: On the night session of this Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained a weakly oscillatory trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.27% to 15,050 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders in Busan, South Korea, the positive progress in economic and trade tariffs was slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market saw profit - taking. The rubber market returned to being dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, putting pressure on rubber prices. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract may maintain a weakly oscillatory trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Performance**: On the night session of this Monday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price down 1.73% to 10,195 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the results in economic and trade tariffs were slightly lower than expected. With the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, the market shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investor sentiment became cautious. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a weakly oscillatory trend on Tuesday [7].

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - WTI crude oil closed at $60.98 per barrel, up 0.7%, but overall weekly movement was minimal [3] - OPEC+ is expected to slightly increase production in December, causing market caution regarding potential price impacts [3] - Speculation around U.S. military action against Venezuela led to temporary oil stockpiling, but subsequent denial by Trump reduced upward momentum [3] - U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil producers are underestimated in their market impact, which could influence future oil prices [3] Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices reached a record high of $11,200 per ton but fell to $10,887.5, a decrease of 0.3% [4] - Analysts suggest that buying pressure is weakening, with short-term speculative funds withdrawing, indicating potential further declines [4] - Bloomberg Commodity Index will increase copper's weight from 5.37% to 6.36% next year, which may provide price support as funds tracking the index will need to buy copper [4] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have dropped from over $4,380 to around $4,000, a decline of over 8% [5] - The weakening expectation of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has reduced gold's appeal as a safe haven [5] - Continuous outflows from gold ETFs have contributed to the price drop, with predictions suggesting a potential decline to $3,750 [5] - Long-term safe-haven attributes of gold remain, but short-term volatility suggests caution for investors considering entry points [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy Insights - The core message emphasizes the importance of understanding underlying market logic rather than reacting to daily price fluctuations [5] - Key factors influencing long-term price trends include OPEC+ production policies, speculative fund movements, and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: PL01 - 02 reverse spread on rallies; - Inter - variety: None [4] 2. Core View - The supply - demand situation of propylene remains relatively loose. The supply is expected to increase due to the restart of propylene plants in North China and the resumption of maintenance units. The demand is mainly rigid, with downstream replenishment being cautious. The cost support is weakening as crude oil prices are falling with OPEC+ production increase expectations. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost side and PDH plant start - stop status [3] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main contract is 6205 yuan/ton (+93), the spot price in East China is 6060 yuan/ton (-15), and in North China is 5985 yuan/ton (-25). The basis in East China is - 145 yuan/ton (-108), and in North China is - 147 yuan/ton (-45). The operating rate is 74% (-1%), the spread between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 176 US dollars/ton (-6), the spread between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 98 US dollars/ton (-10), the import profit is - 251 yuan/ton (+136), and the in - plant inventory is 46260 tons (+4770) [2] - Propylene downstream: PP powder operating rate is 41% (+2.74%), production profit is - 5 yuan/ton (+25); epoxy propane operating rate is 68% (+0%), production profit is - 389 yuan/ton (-32); n - butanol operating rate is 86% (-4%), production profit is - 73 yuan/ton (+15); octanol operating rate is 88% (-4%), production profit is - 381 yuan/ton (+18); acrylic acid operating rate is 74% (-1%), production profit is 747 yuan/ton (+11); acrylonitrile operating rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is - 394 yuan/ton (+52); phenol - acetone operating rate is 78% (+0%), production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (+0) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: Propylene supply is expected to increase due to the restart of plants in North China, reduction of external propylene procurement in some areas, and the resumption and capacity increase of maintenance units. Some enterprises offer discounts to sell [3] - Demand side: Downstream replenishment is cautious due to the loosening of propylene prices. The overall downstream operating rate has declined. The supply of PO is stable for now, and the demand is mainly rigid. The acrylic acid plant has seen a significant decline in operating rate due to centralized maintenance, but some plants are expected to restart. The operating rate of PP powder has increased, while that of butanol and octanol has decreased significantly [3] - Cost side: Crude oil prices are falling with OPEC+ production increase expectations, and the cost support is weakening [3] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: PL01 - 02 reverse spread on rallies; - Inter - variety: None [4]

Core Viewpoint - The overseas agricultural product prices have surged due to improved demand expectations, with Chicago soybean futures reaching a 15-month high, but analysts believe that the short-term sentiment boost may not counterbalance the pressure from abundant supply fundamentals [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent months have seen continuous pressure on soybean prices due to the harvest season and stagnant Chinese buying, leading to weak demand. The CBOT soybean deliverable inventory has significantly increased, reaching 18.714 million bushels as of October 17, up 13% week-on-week and 41.89% year-on-year [3]. - Brazil's soybean planting is progressing steadily, with expectations of continued high yields. The latest report from CONAB indicates that Brazil's soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season will reach 49.1 million hectares, with an expected production of 178 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.6% and 3.5% respectively [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports remain robust, with October exports projected at 7 million tons, significantly higher than the 4.43 million tons exported in the same month last year [4]. Market Sentiment and Price Movements - The sentiment in the agricultural market has improved following preliminary agreements between China and the U.S. on key trade issues, leading to a significant rise in prices for major agricultural products on October 27, with Chicago corn, wheat, and soybean contracts rising by 1.3%, 2.63%, and 2.33% respectively [3]. - The cost of imported U.S. soybeans in China has also increased, reaching 4,737 yuan per ton, marking a five-and-a-half-month high [3]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, analysts suggest that the overall market remains under pressure due to ample supply. The U.S. soybean harvest is progressing rapidly, with an estimated completion of 84% as of October 26, nearing the fastest pace in 14 years [5]. - The domestic soybean and oilseed inventory levels in China are also high, with crushing volumes exceeding 2.1 million tons for two consecutive weeks, indicating a well-supplied market for the fourth quarter [5]. - Analysts from Guotai Junan Futures express that while there is a short-term sentiment recovery, the fundamental supply-demand dynamics are unlikely to change significantly, predicting that soybean prices will continue to fluctuate within a range [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market is in a stage of game between short - term geopolitical bullish factors and long - term supply - demand fundamental bearish factors. Short - term low - position long ideas are recommended, and the actual impact of sanctions on Russian supply should be continuously monitored [2][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Crude oil showed a volatile and strong trend. SC2512 opened at 438 for the week, reached a high of 471, a low of 431, and closed at 465, with a weekly increase of 29.9 or 6.87% [3] 3.2 Price Influence Factor Analysis 3.2.1 OPEC - OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production. In September, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 524,000 barrels, with Saudi Arabia's daily production increasing by 248,000 barrels. OPEC+ member countries' daily crude oil production was 43.05 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 630,000 barrels. The global daily oil supply reached 108 million barrels in September, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 barrels, with OPEC+ countries' production increasing by 1 million barrels. It is expected that the global daily oil supply will increase by 3 million barrels this year to 106.1 million barrels per day and by 2.4 million barrels next year. Non - OPEC+ countries' production is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively in the next two years [5] - On October 1, the 62nd JMMC meeting was held, and Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Russia updated their compensation production cut plans from September 2025 to June 2026. From September to December 2025, the planned compensation production cuts are 232,000, 203,000, 266,000, and 303,000 barrels per day respectively. The 63rd JMMC meeting will be held on November 30. On October 5, eight voluntary production - cut OPEC+ countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the next eight - country meeting will be held on November 2 [6] - In September, the output of above - scale industrial crude oil was 17.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, with a daily output of 592,000 tons. From January to September, the output was 162.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [6] 3.2.2 Russia - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, it is expected to reach 515 - 520 million tons. President Putin said on October 16 that the oil production in 2025 is expected to be 5.1 billion tons, about 1% less than last year, but the overall supply remains high [7] - In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day, and the remaining production capacity was 120,000 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 barrels per day. Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia has the potential to increase oil production [7] - In September, Russia's crude oil exports increased by 370,000 barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day. In September 2025, Russia's seaborne oil exports increased by 12.8% compared with August, with ESPO crude oil exports increasing by 22.6% to 146,000 tons per day, reaching the highest level since 2025. The seaborne volume of the main export variety, Urals crude oil, increased by 7.7% to 290,000 tons per day. In the four weeks ending October 19, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports reached a 29 - month high [8] - The US Treasury Department announced sanctions on two large Russian oil companies on October 22, and the EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas. After the US sanctions, India's Reliance Industries decided to stop buying Russian crude oil [8][9] 3.2.3 United States - As of the week ending October 17, the US daily crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, a decrease of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 129,000 barrels from the same period last year. The average daily production in the four weeks ending October 17 was 13.6 million barrels, 1.3% higher than the same period last year. This year, the average daily production was 13.454 million barrels, 1.9% higher than last year [10] - As of the week ending October 24, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 420, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 60 from the same period last year. The number of natural gas - drilling rigs was 121, the same as the previous week and an increase of 20 from the same period last year. The total number of oil and gas drilling platforms was 550, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 35 from the same period last year [10][12] - The EIA estimates that from 3Q25 to 2Q26, the global oil inventory will increase by more than 2 million barrels per day on average. It is predicted that the low oil price at the beginning of 2026 will lead to a decline in the supply of OPEC+ and some non - OPEC producers, and the inventory will be adjusted later in 2026. The average price of Brent crude oil next year is predicted to be $51 per barrel [12] 3.2.4 America's Production Increase - The IEA expects non - OPEC+ countries' daily crude oil production to increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels in the next two years respectively, with significant increases in the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. According to the current production agreement, OPEC+ will increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and a further 1.2 million barrels per day next year. The IEA believes that the global daily oil supply will be about 4 million barrels higher than the demand next year [18] 3.2.5 Inventory - As of July 2025, the OECD's commercial inventory was 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 66.5 million barrels, less than the average of the past five years by 128.5 million barrels and less than the average of 2015 - 2019 by 208.6 million barrels [19] - As of the week ending October 17, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.388 million barrels, a decrease of 142,000 barrels from the previous week. The commercial crude oil inventory was 422.824 million barrels, a decrease of 961,000 barrels from the previous week. The gasoline inventory was 216.679 million barrels, a decrease of 2.146 million barrels from the previous week [19] 3.2.6 Consumption - OPEC estimates that the global daily oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.38 million barrels next year, and the global economic growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 are maintained at 3% and 3.1% respectively [25] - The IEA estimates that in the third quarter of 2025, the global daily oil demand increased by 750,000 barrels year - on - year. However, in the remaining time of 2025 and 2026, the global daily oil consumption will remain low, with an expected annual increase of about 700,000 barrels per day [25] - As of the four weeks ending October 17, the average daily total demand for refined oil in the US was 20.474 million barrels, 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The four - week average daily demand for gasoline was 8.587 million barrels, 3.6% lower than the same period last year [25] 3.2.7 Refined Oil Processing Fee - The average refining profit margin of Shandong local refineries in this cycle was 154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 271 yuan/ton from the previous cycle. The average refining profit margin of major refineries was 512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous cycle [27] 3.2.8 Refinery Operating Rate - As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US refinery's crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the operating rate was 93.16% [29] - This week, the average operating load of domestic major refineries in China was 80.89%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points from the previous week. The average operating load of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 50.04%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week [29] 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The US sanctions on Russian suppliers and India's review of Russian oil purchases have led to concerns about short - term supply reduction and pushed up crude oil prices. Based on past experience, the actual impact is limited, and attention should be paid to whether Russia can restructure its trade flows. The short - term strategy is to be bullish at low positions and continue to monitor the actual impact of sanctions on Russian supply [35]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of China's special port service fee for U.S. vessels has led to significant changes in the shipping and logistics landscape, with companies adapting through rerouting and restructuring to maintain operational stability despite the absence of U.S.-flagged vessels in Chinese ports [1][3]. Port Operations - Major ports are operating smoothly, with no U.S.-owned shipping companies conducting business in Chinese ports since the policy took effect [3]. - The Guangzhou Port, a key gateway in South China, continues to maintain stable cargo and container throughput, ranking among the world's top ports [3]. Shipping Company Responses - Shipping companies have quickly adapted to the new regulations, with Maersk and other firms implementing rerouting measures to avoid U.S. flagged vessels docking at Chinese ports [6]. - Pacific Shipping is restructuring its operations by relocating part of its fleet to Singapore and changing the flag of its vessels to avoid the special port service fee [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The shipping market, particularly for bulk commodities, is expected to require time to adjust, but signs of stabilization are emerging [10]. - The overall supply of vessels remains sufficient, and there is no structural shortage, with charterers managing their shipping schedules to avoid market volatility [10]. Future Outlook - The recent discussions between China and the U.S. regarding maritime logistics and shipbuilding measures indicate a potential for constructive dialogue and resolution of trade issues [11]. - The adjustments made by shipping companies may lead to a more favorable market environment in the long term, as they seek clarity on regulatory changes and aim to minimize operational costs [10].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of China's special port service fee for U.S. vessels has led to a significant reduction in U.S.-flagged shipping operations in Chinese ports, while the overall capacity for U.S. routes remains stable through alternative measures like transshipment and restructuring [1][2]. Port Operations - Since October 14, the operational situation at major ports, such as Nansha Port, has remained stable, with no U.S.-owned shipping companies conducting business [2] - The Guangzhou Port, a key gateway in South China, continues to maintain high cargo and container throughput despite the new fee [2] - The only reported instance of a special port service fee being charged involved the U.S. Matson Navigation Company's "Manukai" container ship, which allegedly incurred a fee of 4.4584 million yuan during its stay at Ningbo [2] Shipping Response - Shipping companies have quickly adapted to the new regulations, with Maersk and other firms implementing transshipment measures to avoid docking at Chinese ports with U.S.-flagged vessels [4] - Pacific Shipping is restructuring its operations by relocating half of its bulk carrier fleet to Singapore and changing the flag of its vessels to avoid the special port service fee [4][5] Market Dynamics - The shipping market, particularly for bulk commodities, is expected to require time to adjust, but signs of stabilization are emerging [7] - As of the week of October 23, the ultra-large tanker market remains cautious, with both charterers and shipowners adopting a wait-and-see approach [7] - The overall supply of vessels remains sufficient, and there is no structural shortage, allowing charterers to control shipping schedules [7] Future Outlook - Short-term adjustments in the shipping market are anticipated, but long-term positive impacts are expected as companies seek regulatory clarifications and aim to minimize operational costs [7] - There is potential for non-U.S. shipowners to gain a premium in the mid-term, particularly those with Chinese backgrounds, due to resource supply chain security considerations [8] - Ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions in Kuala Lumpur may address maritime logistics and shipbuilding industry concerns, with preliminary agreements being formed [8]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of China's special port service fee for U.S. vessels has led to a significant reduction in U.S.-flagged shipping operations in Chinese ports, prompting companies to adapt through cargo transshipment and restructuring to maintain service continuity [1][2]. Group 1: Port Operations - Since the implementation of the special port service fee on October 14, there have been no U.S.-owned shipping companies operating in the Nansha port area, and overall capacity for U.S. routes remains stable [1]. - Major ports, including Guangzhou, report that operations are running smoothly despite the absence of U.S.-flagged vessels, ensuring continuous service for routes from South China to the U.S. [1]. Group 2: Response from Shipping Companies - Maersk has quickly adapted by transferring cargo from U.S.-flagged vessels to non-U.S. registered ships in third countries [3]. - Companies like Pacific Shipping are restructuring by relocating part of their fleet to Singapore and changing their flag to avoid the special port service fee [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The shipping market, particularly for bulk commodities, is experiencing a period of adjustment, with cautious attitudes from both charterers and shipowners [5]. - As the special port service fee policy details evolve, the market is expected to stabilize, with a shift in focus towards supply and demand fundamentals rather than geopolitical risks [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There is an expectation that U.S.-based shipowners may gain a premium in the medium term, while Chinese-owned shipping companies are likely to benefit from resource supply chain security considerations [6]. - Ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions may lead to constructive solutions regarding maritime logistics and shipbuilding industry measures, indicating potential for future regulatory clarifications [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical sector, with various indices showing significant weekly gains, such as the oil and gas resource index increasing by 3.80% and the oil and gas extraction service index rising by 10.04% [9][10]. Core Insights - Oil prices have risen primarily due to geopolitical factors, particularly the U.S. sanctions on Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukeoil, which have raised concerns about short-term supply reductions [15][17]. - The report suggests that the actual impact of sanctions may be limited, as historical data indicates that trade flow is more affected than actual supply levels [17]. - The report highlights that the U.S. crude oil inventory has decreased, with a net import increase, and the active oil rig count remains stable at 418 [15][17]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The petrochemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.45%, with various sub-sectors showing positive performance [9]. - The average operating load of domestic refineries was reported at 80.89%, a slight decrease from the previous week [3]. Oil Sector - As of October 23, WTI crude was priced at $61.79, up by $4.33, while Brent crude was at $65.98, up by $3.90 [15]. - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventory by 961,000 barrels, with gasoline inventory down by 214,700 barrels [15]. Refining Sector - The average refining margin for major refineries was reported at 512.62 yuan/ton, down by 35.2 yuan/ton from the previous period [3]. - The report indicates a weak domestic gasoline market, with average operating loads for Shandong independent refineries at 50.04% [3]. Polyester Sector - The report notes an increase in raw material prices, leading to a slight uptick in replenishment willingness among weaving enterprises [3]. - The average profit level for polyester filament POY150D was reported at 96.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.44 yuan/ton from the previous week [3]. Olefin Sector - The domestic ethylene market average price was reported at 6,370 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 15 yuan/ton [3]. - The report anticipates continued weak consolidation in the ethylene market due to negative downstream profits [3].