Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products experienced a decline, with the main contract for live pig futures closing at 11,625.00 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.68% [1] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was reported at 11.96 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg, while the benchmark delivery location in Henan saw an average price of 12.66 yuan/kg, which is a week-on-week increase of 0.36 yuan/kg [2] - The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer marketings in February, with larger farms reducing weights and small-scale farmers increasing their marketing activity, leading to a faster marketing pace ahead of the holiday [2] Group 2 - Seasonal consumer demand is entering a peak period, with an increase in residents stocking up for the New Year, providing temporary support for pig prices [2] - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to dominate the spot prices, with the futures market showing a near-weak and far-strong trend, indicating adjustments are anticipated after the holiday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the futures market of various energy - chemical products, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding investment suggestions. For different products, the market is generally characterized by fluctuations, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances, cost pressures, or geopolitical impacts [2][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost collapse leads to price decline and weakening of the monthly spread. It is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the processing fee has declined. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday, with a downward trend in the single - side price following the cost [5][9] - **PTA**: It is in a state of range - bound oscillation, with a bearish monthly spread. The polyester start - up rate is expected to decline marginally, and the supply is stable, resulting in a situation of inventory accumulation in January - February. The single - side price should focus on the support level of 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [10] - **MEG**: It is a single - side range - bound market, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 3700 - 4000. The supply is increasing, and the import volume remains high. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [10] 3.2 Rubber - It shows a wide - range oscillation. The price of Thai raw materials has increased, and the production in some regions has decreased. However, the overall market trend is neutral [11][12][14] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - It oscillates under pressure. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory of butadiene has declined. The supply pressure of butadiene is increasing, and the futures price is falling from a high - valuation level [15][16][17] 3.4 LLDPE - The import is narrowing, and the bids are limited. The strong naphtha compresses the cracking profit. The raw material oil price has stabilized, and the downstream demand has weakened. The supply side has some changes, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the destocking rate after the holiday [18][19] 3.5 PP - The valuation repair is limited, and the L - PP spread is under pressure. The cost side has stabilized, and the supply - demand game of existing inventory has intensified. The demand side has limited support, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [21][22] 3.6 Caustic Soda - The near - month delivery pressure is relatively large. The inventory in Shandong is high, and the short - term spot weakness is difficult to reverse. However, the far - month contract may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [24][25] 3.7 Pulp - It oscillates. The import pulp market has declined, mainly affected by weak demand, the inability of cost increases to be transmitted, and the slowdown of downstream production activities before the holiday [30][31][33] 3.8 Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The market demand is weakening before the holiday, and the local production capacity is expected to decrease, which provides some support for the price [35][36] 3.9 Methanol - It oscillates with support. The port methanol price has declined, and the inventory has decreased. The inland price has continued to decline. The macro - level has both positive and negative factors, and the supply - demand pattern suppresses the upward price space. The cost provides support at the bottom [38][40][41] 3.10 Urea - It oscillates in the short term. The enterprise inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot price is stable. The short - term oscillation has support, with a fundamental pressure level of around 1830 yuan/ton and a support level of around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [43][44][45] 3.11 Styrene - It oscillates strongly. The capital sentiment has receded, and the market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The downstream profit has been squeezed, and the inventory is expected to enter a seasonal accumulation phase. The upward driving force is limited [46][47] 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is oscillating at a low level, the enterprise production is slightly decreasing, and the downstream demand is tepid. The price may oscillate weakly and stably [51] 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, but the fundamental driving force is downward. The price of CP paper has increased, and the PDH device has some maintenance plans [54][59] - **Propylene**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [54] 3.14 PVC - It oscillates weakly. The spot supply and demand are weak, the export atmosphere has weakened, and the industry continues to accumulate inventory. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [62][63] 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It continues to rebound, and the short - term weakness is suspended [65] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It adjusts in a narrow range, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market remains at a historical low [65] 3.16 Container Freight Index (European Line) - The expectation of price increase is rising again. The futures price has increased, and shipping companies have announced price increases. The supply - side capacity has been adjusted, and the geopolitical situation affects the shipping routes. Different contracts have different investment strategies [67][77][80] 3.17 Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term oscillating market. The futures price oscillates weakly, and the spot price is stable. The factory sales rate is highly differentiated [82] - **Bottle Chips**: It is in a short - term oscillating market. The upstream raw material price has declined, and the factory price has been partially adjusted. The market trading atmosphere is acceptable [83] 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to hold short positions and reverse spreads. The spot price in Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the paper mill orders are average, and the market trading atmosphere is weak [85][86][88] 3.19 Pure Benzene - It oscillates strongly. The port inventory of pure benzene has decreased slightly, and the spot and paper - cargo prices have declined. The market is in a state of strong oscillation [90][91][92]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals is experiencing a significant decline, with plastic futures showing a downward trend and a drop of approximately 1.98% [1] - The supply-demand dynamics for plastic are improving only marginally, with limited follow-up in the spot market and expectations of reduced competition in the chemical sector [1] - New production capacity for plastic has recently come online, leading to higher operating rates compared to polypropylene (PP), while demand for agricultural film has not yet peaked [1] Group 2 - Recent maintenance shutdowns at facilities such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical have led to an increase in polyethylene (PE) production and capacity utilization rates [2] - The operating rates for downstream products, including agricultural and packaging films, are on a downward trend, indicating weak demand as companies prepare for the upcoming holiday [2] - The overall supply-demand data for PE is showing signs of weakening, with expectations of further declines in operating rates for agricultural films as the holiday approaches [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic styrene market continues to rise, driven by a combination of supply tightening, export demand support, and rising costs. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking is slowing, and the fundamentals are shifting from tight to loose, with supply-demand dynamics expected to dominate price trends post-festival [3][15]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In January 2026, unexpected production cuts led to a tight balance in the styrene supply, with national operating rates at near historical lows due to both planned and unplanned maintenance [5][17]. - By February, several major production facilities, including Tianjin Bohua and Sinopec Quanzhou, are expected to restart, potentially increasing domestic styrene capacity utilization and shifting the market towards a more relaxed supply situation [5][17]. - The overall supply-demand balance is likely to shift from tight to loose in February, influenced by the resumption of production and seasonal declines in downstream demand due to the Spring Festival [13][27]. Group 2: Cost and Pricing Factors - Recent geopolitical risks have driven international crude oil prices higher, creating a cost support for styrene. However, the sustainability of this support is uncertain, as easing tensions in the Middle East could lead to a price correction [3][15]. - The low inventory levels have been a key factor supporting styrene prices, with a tight market environment encouraging sellers to hold prices firm [10][24]. - Despite strong downstream consumption in 2025, rising styrene prices have led to profit compression in the industry, causing some high-cost factories to reduce production [21][22]. Group 3: Export Market Trends - Export transactions for styrene were strong in January and February, alleviating domestic supply pressures. However, as the shipping cycle approaches in March, export discussions have cooled due to high domestic prices and increased international supply from regions like Japan and the Middle East [11][24]. - If export volumes do not increase in March, domestic inventory pressures may rise, impacting the overall market balance [11][24]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The styrene market is currently in a tight balance, supported by low inventory levels and ongoing export demand. However, the market is expected to face downward pressure post-Spring Festival due to anticipated increases in supply and seasonal declines in demand [13][27]. - The price of styrene is expected to experience fluctuations before the festival, followed by potential corrections afterward, depending on production recovery rates and downstream demand resumption [13][27].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is showing a predominantly positive trend, with nickel futures experiencing a significant increase, reaching a peak of 137,770.00 yuan/ton, marking a rise of approximately 3.07% [1] - The current nickel market is characterized by a strong upward trend, supported by concerns over tight resource supply and rising boundary costs, despite a seasonal increase in stainless steel inventory due to the Chinese New Year [2] - Analysts from various institutions highlight that the supply-demand dynamics for nickel are improving, with expectations of a 10% to 15% decrease in nickel ore production from Indonesia, which could positively impact the market [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment and overall market conditions are currently influencing nickel prices, with a strong US dollar previously causing declines in dollar-denominated metals [3] - The supply side is expected to remain tight due to seasonal weather impacts in major mining regions, which may limit production and shipping volumes [3] - There is a cautious sentiment in the market regarding further purchases at high prices, as many manufacturers have completed their pre-holiday stockpiling [3]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the recent improvement in the optical communication industry, the revenue from this sector for the company remains low, accounting for only about 7% of total revenue as of Q3 2025, and does not yet constitute a core performance pillar [1] Company Summary - The company has issued a stock price fluctuation announcement highlighting the low contribution of the optical communication sector to overall revenue [1] - The company emphasizes the need for investors to be aware of risks related to technological iterations, intensified market competition, and changes in supply-demand dynamics within the optical communication industry [1]

每经AI快讯，2月3日，炬光科技(688167.SH)公告称，公司股票连续3个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值 累计超过30%，属于股票交易异常波动情形。尽管近期光通信行业景气度提升，但截至2025年三季度， 公司光通信领域的收入占公司整体收入比例仍然很低，约为7%，尚未构成核心业绩支柱。提醒投资者 关注光通信行业技术迭代、市场竞争加剧、供需格局变化等风险，理性看待股价波动，注意投资风险。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly negative trend, with polysilicon futures opening at 47,200.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 48,980.0 CNY, reflecting a 3.42% increase during the session [1] - The current market for polysilicon is exhibiting a fluctuating upward trend, with strong performance observed in the trading [2] Group 2 - Donghai Futures indicated that expectations for inventory reduction and capacity removal have not materialized, leading to bearish market conditions due to high polysilicon inventory and declining spot prices [2] - Wukuang Futures noted that a major company has completely halted production, while others have slightly reduced output, suggesting an expected contraction in polysilicon supply in the first quarter, which may improve the supply-demand balance [2] - Hualian Futures reported that while polysilicon supply is decreasing, downstream battery manufacturers are facing cost pressures due to rising silver prices, resulting in reduced production and weak terminal demand [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21569吨，环比减少2.91%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96819吨，环比增加0.24%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18691 吨，环比减少0.93%。 供给端，2025年12月碳酸锂产量为99200实物吨，预测下月产量为97970实物吨，环比减少1.23%,2025年12月 碳酸锂进口量为23989实物吨，预测下月进口量为22500实物吨，环比减少6.20%。需求端，预计下月需求有所 强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所减少，低于历史同期平均水平，供需格局转 向 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the overall commodities have risen sharply with strong buying enthusiasm and large fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. The suggestion to buy NR main contract and short RU2609 should be postponed [14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and rush - to - export sentiment support it. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. It is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The PE valuation still has room to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the demand side shows a downward trend in the overall operating rate [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation has risen. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage with short - term high maintenance on the supply side and declining demand from polyester and chemical fiber due to the off - season. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. - For ethylene glycol, in the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 3.80 yuan/barrel, a 0.81% increase, at 470.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore ESG weekly oil data showed gasoline inventory increased by 1.09 million barrels to 16.91 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.04 million barrels to 8.60 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.44 million barrels to 19.94 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 45.44 million barrels [2][3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 5 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan and Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 15.00 yuan/ton to 2320 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 103 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The current price suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, limiting the upside [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and those in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 30 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: The import window has opened, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, short on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities such as copper and crude oil rose sharply but fell back after the night session. The short - term market is priced by funds with low correlation to fundamentals. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [11]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. Postpone adding or opening positions for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 168 yuan to 5063 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable or changed slightly, the overall operating rate was 78.9%, and the downstream operating rate was 44.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 1.8 tons to 29 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 120.6 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support it, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene rose, and the basis widened. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the port inventory continued to increase [19]. - **Strategy**: The upward valuation repair space of styrene is shrinking. Gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 7014 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11% [22]. - **Strategy**: The crude oil price may have bottomed. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the demand side shows a downward trend in the seasonal off - season [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 6824 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The inventory of production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02% [24]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 98 yuan to 7282 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. The PTA load remained flat. The import of South Korean PX to China decreased in mid - early January, and the inventory increased in late November [26]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. There are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 62 yuan to 5270 yuan. The PTA load remained flat, and the downstream load decreased. The social inventory increased in late January, and the processing fee increased [28]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 44 yuan to 3913 yuan. The supply - side load increased, the downstream load decreased, the import to - port forecast was 14.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 tons to 85.8 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32].