免责声明 铂钯金期货日报 2026/1/5 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证， 据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究 院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 583.95 | 35.55↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 452.85 | +36.95↑ | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) | 10387.00 | -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | | | | | | ...

1月5日，国内期市油脂油料板块多数飘绿。其中，棕榈油期货主力合约开盘报8566.00元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至发稿，棕榈油主力最高触及8600.00元，下方探低8414.00元，跌幅达2.16%附近。 船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚12月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1240587吨，较上月同期出口的 1316455吨减少5.8%。 据马来西亚独立检验机构AmSpec，马来西亚12月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1197434吨，较上月同期出口的 1263298吨减少5.2%。 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年12月1-31日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同 期减少7.39%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.13%，产量环比上月同期减少8.07%。 后市来看，棕榈油期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 恒泰期货表示，全球供应宽松，印尼和马来西亚产量高企，国内港口库存增加，需求端无力支撑，豆棕 价差低位，棕榈油性价比优势缺失，供需错配导致价格缺乏上行驱动。 广州期货指出，马棕油出口疲软限制期价上涨，国内市场或有补货需求，榨利不佳厂商或挺价，美国地 缘冲突可能短时影响油脂价格，中期供需 ...

交产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月5日 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 1月4日 | 12月31日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF): F海 | 15250 | 15250 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 | 15250 | -355 | 15605 | 4395.77% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14700 | 14700 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | 14700 | -905 | 15605 | 1724.31% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 51.00 | 50.85 | 0.15 | 0.29% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.20 | 54.70 | -0.50 | -0.91% | | | 原料:市场主流价:海南 | 13100 | 13000 | 100 | 0.77% | 元/吨 | | 月间价差 | | | | | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华安期货投研 投资策略建议：TA605成本支撑较强，偏强运行为主 本周国内PTA期货市场高位回调运行，截至周五华东地区现货价为5080元/吨，较上周下跌65元/吨，目 前PTA自身供需面较弱，但短期地缘扰动下成本支撑偏强，预计下周PTA偏强运行为主，主要原因如 下： 原油端，OPEC+在1月暂停增产计划，供应格局小幅好转；地缘方面，元旦假期内俄乌与中东不确定性 增强，据央视新闻消息，南美地缘因美国入境轰炸并抓捕委内瑞拉总统有所激化，引发市场对委内瑞拉 原油供应中断的担忧，预计节后原油偏强运行。 从供需格局来看，目前PTA开工负荷76.28%，近期国内多套检修装置重启，后续仍有装置重启计划，供 应端仍有增加预期，但明年国内无新增PTA装置，长期PTA供应端支撑较强。需求端，江浙地区化学纤 维织造综合开工率为61%，终端市场表现疲软，一方面，冬装消费需求启动滞后，市场采购普遍采 取"即用即买"的谨慎策略； 另一方面，家纺领域需求亦呈现弱势，整体表现平平。受此影响，织造工厂普遍面临成品库存高企、新 增订单不足的双重困境，行业开工积极性明显受抑。 ...

贵金属与工业金属：板块汇报和标的更新 20251230 摘要 白银市场短期面临回调风险，上调保证金可能引发价格下跌，但长期来 看，白银作为锚定黄金的投机产品，其估值和现货逻辑依然存在，预计 明年白银价格中枢在 16,000 元/千克。 黄金市场受央行和 ETF 投资资金共振影响，牛市有望延续至明年。稳定 币发行商对黄金购买量显著增加，成为继央行购金之后的重要力量，泰 达（Tether）的黄金储备已达到 104 吨。 黄金股表现滞后于商品价格，主要受降息预期影响。目前黄金股估值处 于低估状态，重点推荐中国黄金国际、山东黄金、中金黄金、紫金矿业、 招金矿业等公司。 预计 2026 年铜价将继续上涨，均价为 11,500 至 12,000 美元，高点 可能达到 13,000 至 15,000 美元，主要推动力包括降息和复苏预期、 铜矿供应不及预期以及交易层面的扰动。 五矿资源、紫金矿业和洛钼等公司将在 2026 年受益于铜价上涨，这些 公司产量增长显著，同时副产品白银的产量也较大。 Q&A 近期白银市场波动剧烈，原因是什么？未来白银价格走势如何？ 来持久买盘。 全球稳定币市场规模目前约为 3,000 亿美元，根据花 ...

受基本面改善和资金流入等利好因素影响，12月下旬天然橡胶市场开始小幅反弹。截至12月27日，上海 全乳胶主流报价在1.54万元左右(吨价，下同)，较12月22日的价格累计上涨500元。 "12月底，国内天然橡胶产区基本进入停割状态，而海外仍处于高产期，叠加海外船货到港量预期减 少，港口库存累库幅度有望缓解。综合来看，预计短期内上海市场全乳胶现货价格运行区间在1.51万～ 1.54万元。"隆众资讯分析师李姿璇表示。 供需格局改善 市场预期乐观 12月，天然橡胶市场呈现供应收缩提速、库存压力缓解的改善格局，供需博弈成为价格震荡偏强的核心 驱动。 12月中下旬，供应端季节性收缩态势进一步加剧。云南产区率先全面停割，海南产区逐步停割，国内产 量进入下行轨道。隆众资讯数据显示，截至12月25日当周，国内天然橡胶周度产量仅0.5万吨，环比减 少0.05万吨，预计下周期国内产区将基本全面停割，供应收缩趋势进一步凸显。 海外市场方面，当前天然橡胶虽仍处于高产周期，但不确定性因素显著增加。"未来两周，东南亚天然 橡胶产区整体降雨量较上一周期增加，对割胶工作影响增强。同时，海外船货到港存在减少预期，港口 库存累库幅度或将放缓。" ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-31 市场情绪趋弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场情绪趋弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3134元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3282元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，环比昨日略有转弱，刚需低价拿货为主，有对昨日的补跌。全国建材成交9.32万吨。 供需与逻辑：建材供需基本面暂无矛盾，保持淡季水平。板材依旧受制于高库存压制，价格边际波动有限。短期 市场心态纠结，盘面短期切换节奏较快。关注环保及季节性减产情况、需求去库变化、利润状况、成本支撑、原 料补库、钢材出口及国内政策。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪谨慎，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘789元/吨，较前一交易日下跌3.5元，跌幅 0.44%；现货方面，临近元旦假期，市场交投趋稳，贸易商多随行就市，钢厂维持低库存运行，补库意愿有限，采 购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交84.5万吨，环比下跌24.55%。 供需与逻辑：补库预期支撑 ...

从全年走势来看，铜价上涨趋势更为明显，截至12月30日15时40分，2025年以来LME三个月期铜、沪 铜期货主力连续合约累计涨幅分别达到42.34%、32.97%。 对于2025年铜价的整体走势，业内人士也进行了复盘。混沌天成研究院有色组分析师周蜜儿表示，2025 年铜价因宏观和矿端因素影响而波动明显，但整体呈现上升趋势，其中上半年主要受关税预期主导，下 半年市场则转向供应风险交易。 一德期货有色金属分析师王伟伟则进一步表示："2025年铜精矿供给紧张是推动铜价上行的核心原因， 而美国关税政策的冲击加剧了铜价的大幅波动，溢价导致的虹吸效应又进一步加剧了非美地区精铜库存 的紧张。" （原标题：多因素助推铜价迭创历史新高） "错过了上车金银的机会，或许买铜是一种补救方式。"近期，一则投资者的发帖在市场中引发共鸣。在 金银价格迭创历史新高之际，铜市已然接棒，开启"狂飙"模式，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜累 计涨超40%，成为2025年大宗商品市场耀眼的明星之一。 这轮铜价的强势上行，不仅带动期货市场价格屡创新高，更传导至股市相关板块，带动产业链个股走 强，全球范围内的"抢铜狂潮"就此拉开序幕。展望2026年 ...

"错过了上车金银的机会，或许买铜是一种补救方式。"近期，一则投资者的发帖在市场中引发共鸣。在 金银价格迭创历史新高之际，铜市已然接棒，开启"狂飙"模式，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜累 计涨超40%，成为2025年大宗商品市场耀眼的明星之一。 这轮铜价的强势上行，不仅带动期货市场价格屡创新高，更传导至股市相关板块，带动产业链个股走 强，全球范围内的"抢铜狂潮"就此拉开序幕。展望2026年，多位业内人士认为，宏观环境、供需格局等 因素有望支撑铜价进一步上行。 股期标的同步飙升 从2025年11月下旬开始，铜价正式开启加速上涨模式，价格迭创历史新高。数据显示，12月29日， LME三个月期铜价格盘中一度触及12960美元/吨的历史新高。与此同时，近期，沪铜期货主力合约价格 在突破10万元/吨的关键关口后进一步攀升，最高触及102660元/吨。 期货市场的亮眼表现同步传导至股市，有色金属板块成为年度热门赛道之一。数据显示，截至12月30日 收盘，申万一级有色金属行业指数2025年累计涨超92%；成分股方面，紫金矿业累计涨超125%，洛阳 钼业累计涨超202%，江西铜业累计涨超153%，多只龙头个股实现股价翻倍。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term crude oil fluctuates driven by geopolitics, with high trading difficulty and few participation opportunities. The PX - PTA, a leading chemical variety, may peak and start to correct, and the chemical industry will face a structurally differentiated market in the medium term after the correction [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: Geopolitics is the main short - term driver. Recent events such as the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers, the受阻 of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the possibility of Israel attacking Iran increase geopolitical uncertainties, making trading difficult [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Chemicals (1) Asphalt - Logic: The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. With the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation, there is a risk of raw material supply disruption. It can be pre - arranged before the technical structure's upward trend is broken [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a short - term high today but failed to break through due to lack of volume. The short - term support below has moved up to 2965. The strategy is to take half - profit on long positions before the holiday, and set the remaining half - position's stop - profit at 2965 [8]. (2) Styrene - Logic: The port inventory is accumulating, reaching the highest in five years, and the total industrial chain inventory is at a historical high. The demand is weak in the off - season, and there is still pressure of over - inventory in January and February [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a short - term high today with an unobvious breakthrough and insufficient volume. The short - term support is at 6700. The strategy is to take profit on the remaining half of long positions [10][12]. (3) Rubber - Logic: The spot price of Thai cup lump rubber is firm, and some funds flow into low - priced products due to a warm macro - sentiment, driving the price up. However, the downstream tire inventory is over - stocked, and the domestic rubber inventory is accumulating seasonally, reaching a year - on - year high. It still faces great pressure after the short - term rise [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure but should be treated as oscillatory. It oscillated today, and the short - term support is at 15520. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The short - term price of the raw material butadiene is firm due to inventory reduction, and some funds flow into low - priced products due to a warm macro - sentiment, driving the price up. However, high - level production of butadiene will lead to high supply pressure later [16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today without changing the short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 11200. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 11200 [16]. (5) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. Funds have flowed in since last week. However, the short - term increase is too large, the basis has widened rapidly, and the downstream polyester's acceptance of high prices is low. It faces a corrective market [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today. After a large reduction in positions yesterday, it may have reached a short - term peak, but confirmation is needed. The hourly - level support is at 7260. The strategy is to hold the remaining half - position of long positions with the stop - profit at 7260, and exit if the hourly - line closes below this level [20][23]. (6) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. Funds have flowed in since last week. However, the short - term increase is too large, the basis has widened rapidly, and the downstream polyester's acceptance of high prices is low. It faces a corrective market [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today. After a large reduction in positions, it may have reached a short - term peak, but confirmation is needed. The hourly - level support is at 5070. The strategy is to hold the remaining half - position of long positions with the stop - profit at 5070, and exit if the hourly - line closes below this level [24]. (7) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastics belong are still weak, with new production capacity pressure and the off - season of demand. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and broke through the short - term pressure at 6315 today, turning the hourly - level structure to long. The short - term support below is at 6255. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [26]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The port inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream MTO is under maintenance. The inventory pressure is improved, but the demand expectation is weak. The overall fundamental driving force is not strong. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and broke through today, making the short - term structure upward again. The short - term support is at 2120. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [29]. (9) PVC - Logic: Although the total PVC inventory is still at a historical high year - on - year, due to large profit losses and low chlor - alkali profits, the PVC production and output have declined for three consecutive weeks. After entering the pattern of both weak supply and demand, the total inventory has also decreased for three consecutive weeks, reducing the supply pressure in the short term. The expectation of spring maintenance in the first quarter and the anti - involution sentiment may drive the market up in the short term [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, but the volume was insufficient, and it cannot be confirmed as the end of the correction. The short - term support is at 4670 - 4680. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 4670 - 4680 [33]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The losses of ethylene glycol plants are expanding, and the number of maintenance plans is increasing, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply pressure. However, the port inventory is still accumulating, exceeding the median of the past five years. Two 720,000 - ton production capacity plants in Taiwan stopped production last week, and there is an expectation of improvement in port inventory accumulation [34]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today. The hourly - line closed at a new high, but the breakthrough was not obvious and the volume was insufficient. The short - term support is temporarily at 3775. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastics belong are still weak, with new production capacity pressure and the off - season of demand. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [38]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, and the hourly - level structure has not reversed. The short - term pressure above is at 6545. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [38]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory remains unchanged, and the inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing. The medium - term pressure of oversupply still exists, but the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions is reduced. It is only suitable for short - position allocation [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, maintaining the short - term upward structure. The short - term support below has moved up to 1170. The strategy is to wait and see after taking profit on long positions yesterday [41]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand remains unchanged. The supply - demand driving force is still downward without a reversal, but there is little space for chasing short positions. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [44]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, continuing the short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 2190. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 2190 [44].