1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to weaken, and PXN may be compressed. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. PX11 can be treated as fluctuating between 6600 - 6900 [2]. - PTA: New device commissioning is postponed, and some device maintenance plans are announced, which boosts PTA in the short - term. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price follows raw materials. TA can be treated as fluctuating between 4600 - 4800, and TA1 - 5 can be rolled in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. In September, it is expected to be good, but in the fourth quarter, it will enter the inventory accumulation period. EG can be observed unilaterally, and EG1 - 5 can be in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Short Fiber: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The short - fiber price has support at low levels but weak rebound drive, and the rhythm follows raw materials [2]. - Bottle Chip: In September, supply increases slightly, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. PR follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upside space [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are running weakly due to increasing supply and lack of demand growth. The short - term futures are expected to run weakly [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply may decline due to maintenance, and the demand support is limited. The spot price may stabilize, and the decline space of the futures price is limited [12]. - PVC: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply is expected to decrease due to maintenance, and the demand shows a marginal improvement. The cost provides bottom support. It can be short - sold at high prices [12]. Methanol Industry The mainland supply is at a high level, and the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand is weak, and the port inventory is accumulating. The overall valuation is neutral. The market sways between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations, and the inventory inflection point should be followed [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply may be higher than expected, and demand is weak. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. BZ2603 follows styrene to fluctuate [26]. - Styrene: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand support is average. The port inventory is falling but still high. EB10 can be bought at low levels, and the spread between EB11 and BZ11 can be widened at low levels [26]. Crude Oil Industry The overnight oil price fluctuates in a range. The tight refined oil market supports the price, but the macro - economic slowdown restricts the upside. The oil price may fluctuate in a range in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and look for opportunities to widen the spread on the option side [28]. Polyolefin Industry For PP, the profit is suppressed, there are many unplanned maintenance, and the inventory decreases. For PE, the maintenance is high, the basis rises, and the inventory is reduced. The demand has few new orders, and the market shows "supply decrease and demand increase" [33]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.8%, WTI crude oil (October) decreased by 0.7%, CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.6%, etc. [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, etc. [2]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased, PX spot price (RMB) decreased, and PX basis (11) decreased by 39.0% [2]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, TA futures 2601 decreased by 1.0% [2]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.3%, EG futures 2601 decreased by 0.7% [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.5%, China PX operating rate increased by 4.9%, etc. [2]. Urea Industry - **Fertilizer Market**: The prices of some fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur decreased slightly, while others remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.82%, coal - based urea daily output increased by 1.97%, etc. [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 2.4%, East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 0.4% [12]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda increased by 1.3%, and the export profit increased by 120.2% [12]. - **Supply (Chlor - alkali Operating Rate and Industry Profit)**: PVC overall operating rate increased by 4.2%, and the profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 12.8% [12]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate increased by 1.5%, and Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 12.3% [12]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda Shandong inventory increased by 17.0%, and PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.8% [12]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price decreased by 1.26%, and the spread between MA9 and MA1 changed by - 360.00% [22]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61%, and methanol port inventory increased by 0.48% [22]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.12%, and downstream externally - purchased MTO device operating rate increased by 8.72% [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.5%, and pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.5% [26]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price decreased by 1.1%, and EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.1% [26]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 6.9%, and styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 9.9% [26]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4%, and domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.1% [26]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.75%, WTI decreased by 0.05%, and the spread between Brent M1 and M3 increased by 4.55% [28]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.13%, NYM ULSD increased by 0.02%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.39% [28]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.51%, European gasoline crack spread decreased by 2.44% [28]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601 closing price decreased by 0.79%, PP2601 closing price decreased by 0.80% [33]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57%, PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% [33]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.97%, PP device operating rate decreased by 2.5% [33].

Industry Capacity Adjustment - China's domestic polysilicon effective capacity is projected to decrease to approximately 240 million tons per year, a 164% decrease compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The polysilicon supply and demand pattern is expected to improve substantially with the strict implementation of new energy consumption standards [1] Regulatory Environment - The draft standard released this week is currently open for public comment and is expected to be implemented within 12 months [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On September 15, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 71,260 yuan/ton and closed at 72,680 yuan/ton, with a 2.31% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 482,790 lots, and the open interest was 309,446 lots, compared to 309,402 lots the previous day. The current basis is 50 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,963 lots, a change of 338 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 71,300 - 73,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 69,600 - 7,0800 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 810 US dollars/ton, a change of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories are generally in a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and market transactions have weakened. However, due to the peak demand season and pre - National Day stockpiling needs, their purchasing willingness is strong when prices are relatively low [1]. - In terms of supply, lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lepidolite has dropped to 15%. In September, the market shows a situation where both supply and demand increase, but demand grows faster, and a temporary supply shortage is expected this month [1]. - The weekly production increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons, with small increases in production from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, while inventory in the intermediate links and smelters decreased significantly, indicating good downstream restocking willingness [2]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, among 623 products of large - scale industries, 319 had year - on - year production growth. For example, steel production was 122.77 million tons, a 9.7% increase; cement was 148.02 million tons, a 6.2% decrease; ten non - ferrous metals were 6.98 million tons, a 3.8% increase; ethylene was 3.14 million tons, a 10.4% increase; automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a 10.5% increase, among which new - energy vehicles were 1.333 million vehicles, a 22.7% increase; power generation was 936.3 billion kWh, a 1.6% increase; and crude oil processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a 7.6% increase [2]. 2. Core View - The futures market showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday, mainly affected by leading companies' upward revision of battery cell shipment expectations. With support from the peak consumption season, the short - term supply - demand pattern is good, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the market has some support. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the short term. After the resumption of mining production and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [3]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, sell - hedging on rallies. - Inter - delivery spread: None. - Cross - product: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2601 is oscillating and bullish, while the medium - term view is oscillating. The market sentiment has warmed up, and with the pre - holiday restocking expectation, bullish factors support the high - level and bullish operation of ore prices. However, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals are difficult to continuously improve, and the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be monitored [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that bullish factors are fermenting, leading to the bullish operation of ore prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up, and the night - session ore price has risen again. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to run smoothly. The terminal consumption of ore has increased, and with the approaching holiday restocking, the demand is good, providing strong support for ore prices. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports continues to decline, but the shipment of overseas miners has increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, reaching a new high for the single week of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival of Australian and Brazilian ore will increase, and the supply of domestic ore has recovered, so the ore supply will increase. - Overall, although bullish factors support the high - level and bullish operation of ore prices, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply is rising. The fundamentals are difficult to continuously improve, and the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be monitored [3].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. The upstream cost side still provides support, while downstream users are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Future focus should be on raw material output during the peak production season in the main producing areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high prices; if supply is restricted, rubber prices are expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 12, the price of Yunnan Guofu standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber was - 870 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan or 13.43%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.33%. The FOB mid - price of cup rubber in the international market was 52.20 Thai baht/kg, down 0.35 Thai baht or - 0.67%, and the FOB mid - price of glue was 56.20 Thai baht/kg, up 0.20 Thai baht or 0.36% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 1010 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 6.91%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 50.00%; the 5 - 9 spread was 1030 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan or - 8.44% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's output was 414.90 (unit not clear), down 6.70 or 1.61% from the previous month; Indonesia's output was 176.20 (ten tons), down 21.30 or 12.09%; India's output was 45.00, down 1.00 or - 2.17%; China's output was 101.30, down 1.30. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points. In July, domestic tire production was 94.364 million units, down 8.385 million units or - 8.16%; tire export volume was 66.65 million units, up 6.34 million units or 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber in July was 47.48 (unit not clear), up 1.15 or 2.47% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 602,295 (unit not clear), down 3908 or - 0.64%; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 45,964, down 605 or - 1.30%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao was 5.03%, up 0.95 percentage points; the outbound rate was 5.98%, up 1.79 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the futures market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Fundamentally, in September, although there is production reduction on the supply side, there are also factory resumptions to make up for the supply, so the overall supply reduction is not obvious. On the demand side, the polysilicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month. There may be a slight inventory accumulation pattern in September. The price increase of polysilicon has been gradually accepted by downstream users, and the spot transmission mechanism is relatively smooth. In the future, the market pays less attention to fundamentals and more to policy expectations, with high price volatility risk. It is recommended to pay attention to the self - discipline meeting of polysilicon enterprises next week [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 12, the average price of N - type re - feedstock was 51,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 48,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The N - type material basis (average price) was - 2060 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 4.63% [2]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price was 53,610, down 100 or - 0.19%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was - 53,845, down 25,580 or - 3203.46%; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 235, up 105 or 80.77% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production was 13.88 GW, up 0.10 GW or 0.73%; polysilicon production was 3.12 million tons, up 0.10 million tons or 3.31% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production was 13.17 million tons, up 2.49 million tons or 23.31%; polysilicon import volume was 0.11 (unit not clear), up 0.03 or 40.30%; polysilicon export volume was 0.22 (unit not clear), up 0.01 or 5.96%; the net export volume of polysilicon was 0.11 million tons, down 0.02 million tons or - 14.92%. Silicon wafer production was 56.04 GW, up 3.29 GW or 6.24%; silicon wafer import volume was 0.06 million tons, down 0.01 million tons or - 15.41%; silicon wafer export volume was 0.61 million tons, up 0.06 million tons or 11.37%; the net export volume of silicon wafers was 0.55 million tons, up 0.07 million tons or 15.56%. The demand for silicon wafers was 58.62 GW, up 0.08 GW or 0.14% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory was 21.90 million tons, up 0.80 million tons or 3.79%; silicon wafer inventory was 16.55 GW, down 0.30 GW or - 1.78%. The polysilicon contract volume was 7820 (unit not clear), up 130 or 1.69% [2]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View From the cost side, raw material prices are rising. In September, the prices of Xinjiang caking coal and charcoal have increased significantly, with monthly increases of 400 yuan/ton and 200 yuan/ton respectively. The electricity price in the southwest region will gradually rise during the dry season, and the cost center of industrial silicon will move up in the future. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. The cost side of industrial silicon provides strong support. Considering the possible impact of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week and the expected increase in downstream inventory replenishment demand before the National Day, industrial silicon prices may rise slightly. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices. However, it should be noted that with the increase in production, inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are emerging. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On September 12, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) was - 5 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 1.09%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis (based on SI4210) was - 45 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 12.50%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis (in Xinjiang) was 655 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 0.76% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 8725 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 33.33%; the spread between 2512 - 2601 was - 365 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 1.39% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production was 38.57 million tons, up 4.74 million tons or 14.01%; Xinjiang's industrial silicon production was 16.97 million tons, up 1.94 million tons or 12.91%; Yunnan's production was 5.81 million tons, up 1.70 million tons or 41.19%; Sichuan's production was 5.37 million tons, up 0.52 million tons or 10.72%. The national operating rate was 55.87%, up 3.26 percentage points or 6.20%; Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.61%, up 8.02 percentage points or 15.25%; Yunnan's operating rate was 47.39%, up 14.50 percentage points or 44.09%; Sichuan's operating rate was 44.29%, up 7.33 percentage points or 19.83%. The production of silicone DMC was 22.31 million tons, up 2.33 million tons or 11.66%; polysilicon production was 13.17 million tons, up 2.49 million tons or 23.31%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.50 million tons, down 1.00 million tons or - 1.60%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 7.40 million tons, up 0.57 million tons or 8.32% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) was 12.17 million tons, up 0.23 million tons or 1.93%; Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) was 2.94 million tons, up 0.08 million tons or 2.62%; Sichuan's factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) was 2.28 million tons, unchanged. Social inventory (weekly) was 53.90 million tons, up 0.20 million tons or 0.37%; contract inventory (daily) was 25.00 million tons, down 0.05 million tons or - 0.19%; non - warehouse receipt inventory (daily) was 28.90 million tons, up 0.25 million tons or 0.86% [3]. Group 4: Log Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current log market presents an oscillating pattern of "weak supply and demand, stable prices, and slightly decreasing inventory". The core contradiction in the market lies in the game between weak demand and fluctuating supply. Prices are temporarily stable under cost support. Future attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves significantly during the seasonal peak season. Currently, new registered warehouse receipts have been added to the 09 contract, and buyers' willingness to take delivery is poor, increasing pressure on the spot market. The spot market is weakening, and traders' enthusiasm for imports is decreasing. The arrival volume remains low, and the total inventory is low, with continuous inventory reduction for several weeks to below 3 million tons. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters, showing no obvious improvement trend. Currently, the valuation of the futures market below 800 is at a discount. Considering the peak - season expectations, it is recommended to go long at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 12, the price of log 2509 was 763.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 3.5 yuan or - 0.46%; the price of log 2511 was 798.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan or - 0.81%; the price of log 2601 was 819 yuan/cubic meter, down 35.0 yuan. The 9 - 11 spread was - 38.0 yuan/cubic meter; the 9 - 1 spread was 3.5 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the 09 contract was - 13.0 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 11 contract was - 54.5 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 01 contract was - 62.5 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9A small radiata pine at Rizhao Port was 710.0 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 3.9A medium radiata pine was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 3.9A large radiata pine was 850 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of 4A small radiata pine at Taicang Port was 720 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 4A medium radiata pine was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 4A large radiata pine was 820 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port was 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The new round of FOB quotes has loosened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [4]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: On September 12, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.116, unchanged. The import theoretical cost was 797.71 yuan/cubic meter, down 13.81 yuan or - 2% [4]. - **Supply**: As of August 31, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 173.3 million cubic meters, down 6.7 million cubic meters or - 3.87% from July 31. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 44.0, down 3.0 or - 6.38% [4]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, China's log inventory was 294.00 million cubic meters, down 3.0 million cubic meters or - 1.01%; Shandong's inventory was 181.30 million cubic meters, down 5.4 million cubic meters or - 2.89%; Jiangsu's inventory was 91.54 million cubic meters, up 0.6 million cubic meters or 0.67% [4]. - **Demand**: As of September 5, the average daily outbound volume of logs in China was 61,200 cubic meters, down 800 cubic meters or - 1% [4]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Soda Ash The futures market has been oscillating narrowly recently, lacking a main trading logic. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although inventory did not accumulate this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced production units have resumed, and the weekly production has returned to the high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, supply is at a high level. Without actual capacity withdrawal or production reduction, inventory will face further pressure. Track the implementation of policies and the production adjustment of soda ash plants. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and it is advisable to short on rallies [5]. Glass The spot market had good transactions last week, and inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, news about the conversion of coal - fired gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market. The specific conversion time of the production lines is undetermined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some plans for复产 and ignition in the future. Currently, the inventory of manufacturers in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, and the inventory in the middle reaches has not decreased significantly. In terms of industry supply - demand

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver futures in Shanghai surged, breaking the 10,000 yuan per kilogram mark, reaching a historical high since the contract's inception, driven by factors such as catch-up demand, supply-demand dynamics, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Price Movement - On September 12, the Shanghai silver main contract price rose significantly, closing at 10,035 yuan per kilogram, with a gain of 2.36% [1] - The contract reached an intraday high above 10,000 yuan per kilogram, marking a record high for the contract [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Price - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to multiple factors: 1. Catch-up demand relative to gold, with many investors buying silver for arbitrage [1] 2. Clear industrial demand driven by the growth of solar panel production [1] 3. A decline in the credibility of the US dollar, prompting sovereign nations to seek new monetary anchors, which supports the rise in gold prices and consequently silver [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Impact - Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are seen as supportive for precious metal prices, with a weaker dollar likely to boost gold and silver prices [2] - The differentiation between industrial metals and precious metals is noted, where precious metals like gold and silver may benefit from being perceived as safe-haven assets, while industrial metals could face adverse effects [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The short - term consumption side of the lithium carbonate market still has support, with the current consumption peak season and downstream rigid procurement needs. The market in September shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and there may be a temporary supply shortage. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate, and may decline after the mine resumes production and consumption weakens [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 11, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 70,960 yuan/ton and closed at 71,000 yuan/ton, with a 1.25% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 426,041 lots, and the open interest was 323,456 lots (the previous day's open interest was 340,814 lots). The current basis is 2,130 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,391 lots, a change of 290 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 71,000 - 74,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 70,000 - 71,200 yuan/ton, also a change of - 600 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories' price - setting and trading enthusiasm are still relatively high. As it is the industry's peak demand season, downstream material factories have rigid procurement needs and strong procurement willingness at relatively low prices [1] - Lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lithium mica has dropped to 15%. In September, the market shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and a temporary supply shortage is expected [1] - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons. The outputs from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes all increased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. The downstream inventory continued to increase, while the inventory in the intermediate links and smelters decreased significantly, and the downstream restocking willingness is good [2] Strategy - The futures market fluctuates in the short term. With the weakening of mine - end disturbances, the peak consumption season provides some support. The short - term supply - demand pattern is good, and the inventory continues to decline, providing some support to the market. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the short term and may decline after the mine resumes production and consumption weakens [3] Trading Recommendations - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, and sell - hedging can be carried out on rallies [5] - Inter - period: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the mid - term and short - term structures of various energy and chemical products, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamental and technical analysis of each product. The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for different products, and many products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical events [1][2]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ starts the second - stage 165 barrels/day复产 plan. In October, it will increase production by 137,000 barrels/day. The market has a large surplus expectation after the first - stage复产, and the second - stage复产 will add to the pressure with the demand shifting from peak to off - peak season. Geopolitical events and sanctions expectations bring short - term support, but the fundamental trend is downward [2]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. The intraday trend is a bit subtle, testing the short - term pressure of 489 (11 contract). It is recommended to observe for one more day. The hourly - level short positions can be held cautiously [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly start - up rate has a slight increase, but there are unplanned maintenance. The downstream profit is poor, the start - up rates of ABS and EPS decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, which is a short - term pressure point. After the autumn maintenance peak, there will be new device put - into - production pressure in September - October, and the supply - demand situation is weak. There is also the risk of inventory over - filling [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After a sharp fall, it is in a normal repair period. It has reached above the short - term pressure of 7040 (10 contract). The remaining short positions can be held cautiously, with the final stop - profit at 7180 [5]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices strong. The import volume in August increases both year - on - year and month - on - month, with a continuous increase expectation. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires decreases significantly, while that of all - steel tires remains high. The current fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation structure at the daily level, and the hourly - level upward structure is being tested. After an increase in positions and a fall below the support of 15880, the short - term upward trend is under threat. It is close to the lower limit of the August range. It is recommended to wait and see at the hourly level and look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute chart after a rebound fails to break through the pressure of 16000 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. The start - up rate and output of some devices decrease due to maintenance, and the inventory of downstream semi - steel tires also drops. The main contradiction lies in the cost of butadiene. With the arrival of a large number of ships, the port inventory has increased significantly, ending the previous tight situation. In the medium term, the supply pressure of butadiene will gradually appear, and the upstream crude oil will also face surplus pressure [10]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward structure at the daily level, and short - term downward structure at the hourly level. Since August 22, the position has increased by 97%. After an increase in positions and a break - through today, it may end the oscillation and turn to a downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 11760. The 15 - minute short positions can be held at the hourly level, with the stop - profit at 11760 [13]. PX - Logic: The profit of PX is restored, and the start - up rate is increasing after the maintenance peak. The domestic PX load is 83%, and the Asian PX load is 75%. The demand - side device maintenance and复产 co - exist, but the overall start - up rate of PTA has declined, and the previous inventory reduction has slowed down. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost of crude oil [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The intraday trend is oscillatory, and the small - cycle should pay attention to the pressure at 6770 on the 15 - minute chart. The remaining short positions can be held [17]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost collapse logic of crude oil [21]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 4700. The short positions can be held, with the stop - profit at 4700 [21]. PP - Logic: The supply - side start - up rate increases, and new devices will be put into production. The demand enters the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost collapse logic [22]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory. The short - term pressure at the hourly level is 7090, which is relatively far. Attention can be paid to the 6990 pressure on the 15 - minute short - cycle. If it breaks through, partial stop - profit can be made [22]. Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas start - up rates are high, and the arrival pressure in September is large. The port inventory continues to accumulate, reaching a record high in the past 5 years. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term pressure is great [24]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillation and short - term downward structures. After an increase in positions and a fall, the 15 - minute cycle turns down. Attention should be paid to whether the hourly - level downward slope returns. The short - term pressure is at 2435. The remaining short positions can be held cautiously, with the final stop - profit at 2435 [24]. PVC - Logic: After the previous maintenance, the start - up rate remains at a high level of 75%. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is strong, so the supply is difficult to reduce. The inventory continues to accumulate to the highest level in the same period of history. Before the real estate bottoms out, the demand is difficult to improve, and the fundamentals are bearish [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure at the daily level and short - term downward structure at the hourly level. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 4930. The short positions can be held [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The port inventory is at a low level in recent years, so the fundamentals are relatively strong compared with other energy and chemical products. But with the increase in domestic start - up rate, it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term situation is strong, but the medium - term expectation is bearish [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward and short - term downward structures. The intraday oscillation, but the closing price hits a new low, and the short - term decline may accelerate. The short - term pressure is at 4375. The short positions can be held, with the stop - loss at 4375 [30]. Plastic - Logic: The start - up rate of PE is stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is general [32]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward and short - term downward structures. The intraday trend is oscillatory. The short - term pressure at the hourly level is 7365, which is relatively far. Attention can be paid to the 7290 pressure on the 15 - minute small - cycle. The 15 - minute short positions can be held, with the stop - loss at 7290 [32]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the end of the anti - involution hype, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure starts the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution has no real impact on the supply. The over - capacity trend continues, and the output has further increased after the price increase. The real estate demand is difficult to bottom out, and the supply - strong and demand - weak situation remains unchanged. The large inventory and high - output pressure continue to suppress the price [33]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 1320. The short positions can be held [33]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, the supply - side output and start - up rate decreased due to autumn maintenance and transportation restrictions during the military parade. After the parade on September 3, the supply - side speculation may end. The export demand is at a high level but the profit is declining, and the domestic non - aluminum demand is rising in the early peak season, while the alumina demand remains flat at a high level. The overall supply - demand is strong, but the supply pressure is greater. The inventory is at a record high in the past 5 years, and there is an over - supply situation after the start - up rate recovers [36]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 2625. The short positions can be held, with the stop - profit at 2625 [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4] Core View of the Report - The short - term fundamental supply - demand pattern is good. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The sharp decline in the market on the day was mainly affected by the expected resumption of production of previously shut - down mines. The mid - term supply - demand shows an over - supply cycle, and the market may be weak and volatile after the mine resumes production and consumption support weakens [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 10, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 69,040 yuan/ton and closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, with a - 4.87% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 751,480 lots, and the open interest was 340,814 lots (351,340 lots the previous day). The current basis was 3,330 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,101 lots with no change from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,500 - 75,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,600 - 71,800 yuan/ton, both down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 805 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The downstream material factories' price - fixing enthusiasm increased significantly. In September, the market showed simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and the overall supply of lithium carbonate was still tight. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, while that from lithium mica decreased to 15% [1] Strategy - The short - term supply - demand pattern is good. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increases, and that from mica decreases in the short term. The consumption end is in the peak season with good downstream production schedules. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The mid - term over - supply cycle remains unchanged, and the market may be weak and volatile later [2]