Group 1 - The report indicates that despite multiple events intertwining, the bond market sentiment has shown signs of recovery amidst volatility, with a focus returning to fundamentals and liquidity after a period of policy uncertainty [2][12][22] - The recent tax adjustment on interest income from newly issued government bonds is expected to lead to a one-time and structural price reassessment rather than a trend change, with potential central bank support to smooth the market response [3][11][21] - The report identifies four relatively certain impacts of the tax adjustment, including an estimated widening of the new and old bond yield spread by 6-11 basis points, benefits for certain bond types, enhanced advantages for asset management products, and increased attractiveness of credit assets for banks [3][8][9] Group 2 - The report suggests that the current recovery in bond market sentiment may have continuity, particularly as three core variables show marginal changes, including an increasing probability of a peak in social financing growth and signs of economic pressure in the second half of the year [4][15][18] - The basic economic indicators have begun to reflect a scenario of marginal pressure, with PMI data showing declines in production and demand orders, supporting the view of weakening economic momentum [15][22] - The likelihood of a significant tightening of liquidity is low, as the central bank is expected to maintain a supportive stance in light of the economic conditions, potentially leading to a continuation of a relatively loose liquidity environment [5][18][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year's H1 economic data remained resilient despite tariff disruptions. July's PMI data was below expectations, with both supply and demand sides declining. New export orders and high - frequency port data indicated a potential weakening of the front - loading export effect, and future exports may face pressure. - In terms of funds, the increase in government bond issuance and maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit, as well as fluctuations in the stock and commodity markets, had an impact on capital flow. However, the central bank's supportive attitude towards funds is expected to maintain overall liquidity in the future. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and continued loose funds, interest rates are expected to trend downward in the long - term. However, the recent positive sentiment in the stock market has suppressed the bond market, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy**: H1 economic data was resilient under tariff influence. July's PMI was below expectations. Overseas, the FOMC meeting showed a marginally hawkish stance from the Fed, the BOJ kept interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a US rate cut in September increased. There were also important domestic and international policy events such as the Politburo meeting, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the announcement of the national childcare subsidy system [10][11]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 1633.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1656.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.42% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10Y Treasury yield was 1.71%, down 3.17BP week - on - week; the 30Y Treasury yield was 1.95%, down 3.70BP week - on - week. The latest 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.23%, down 17.00BP week - on - week [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - position strategy on dips, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult - to - improve credit conditions [15]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Presented the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [19][22][25]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy**: - GDP: In Q2 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. - PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. - Price Index: In June, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. - Export: In June, exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. - Industrial and Consumption Data: In June, industrial added value increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year. - Investment and Real Estate Data: In June, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and real estate - related data showed continued adjustment [43][49][52]. - **Foreign Economy**: - US: Q1 GDP had a real year - on - year growth rate of 2.05% and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 0.3%. In June, CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000. - EU: Q1 GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. - Eurozone: In July, the preliminary CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, and the manufacturing PMI was 49.8 [70][73][79]. 4. Liquidity - In June, M1 growth was 4.6%, M2 growth was 8.3%, and the social financing increment was 4.2 trillion yuan. The increase in social financing mainly came from government bonds. - In July, the MLF balance was 535 billion yuan, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net injection through reverse repurchases was 6.9 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.42% [84][90]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: The latest 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury yields were 1.42%, 1.57%, 1.71%, and 1.95% respectively, with corresponding week - on - week changes of - 1.29BP, - 5.66BP, - 3.17BP, and - 3.70BP. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, down 17.00BP week - on - week [93]. - **Exchange Rates**: No specific analysis of exchange rate trends was provided, only relevant data charts were presented [101].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the manufacturing PMI in China for July 2025 is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - The PMI is a key indicator that reflects the economic conditions in the manufacturing sector, covering aspects such as production, orders, and inventory, and is considered a leading indicator for macroeconomic trends [1] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points; medium enterprises saw an increase to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points; while small enterprises reported a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Among the 13 sub-indices, several showed increases compared to the previous month, including the purchasing price index, factory price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and production activity expectation index, with increases ranging from 0.1 to 3.1 percentage points [1] - Conversely, indices such as production, new orders, new export orders, backlog orders, finished goods inventory, purchasing volume, and raw material inventory all declined, with decreases ranging from 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points [1] - Despite short-term economic fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains stable, supported by steady domestic demand and manageable declines in the business ecosystem [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market may experience a short - term repair after the Politburo meeting. Three major concerns in the bond market have been alleviated, and the bond interest rate has started a repair trend. However, in the long - term, the probability of interest rates breaking through the low point is small, and the interest rate center may fluctuate upwards [4][5][9] Summary by Related Contents 1. Policy Content of the Politburo Meeting - The meeting set a "good" tone for the economy in the first half of the year, stating that the economy was stable with progress, and high - quality development achieved new results. In the second half of the year, economic work emphasizes "enhancing awareness of potential perils and adhering to a bottom - line mindset", and policy implementation may emphasize execution while reserving some flexibility [3][6] - Macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase strength in a timely manner. Fiscal policy should be more proactive, and monetary policy should be moderately loose. Policy tools should support key areas such as science and technology innovation, consumption, small and micro - enterprises, and foreign trade [3] - Science and technology innovation and boosting domestic demand are important policy measures. The meeting emphasized the leading role of science and technology innovation in new - quality productivity and placed more emphasis on consumption than investment in domestic demand [3] 2. Factors Affecting the Bond Market - Recently, the bond market has been weak, mainly suppressed by risk preference and inflation trading. The strengthening of the equity and commodity markets since June has suppressed bond market sentiment, and the "anti - involution" has raised inflation expectations [7] - Before the meeting, concerns in the bond market mainly included the possibility of excessive total - volume policies, real - estate policies, and the confirmation of "anti - involution" policies. After the meeting, these concerns were basically dispelled [4][5][7] 3. Analysis of the Bond Market's Future Trend - In the short - term, the bond market may repair. The meeting confirmed the economic achievements in the first half of the year, with a low probability of excessive total - volume policies. It did not directly mention real - estate policies, and the "anti - involution" statement was weakened, which may lead to a decline in inflation expectations. Additionally, moderately loose monetary policy also supports the bond market [4][5][10] - In the long - term, the probability of interest rates breaking through the low point is small, and the interest rate center may fluctuate upwards. It is recommended to focus on trading opportunities from oversold rebounds rather than heavy - position participation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, with a notable "seesaw" effect observed between the stock and bond markets, leading to large redemptions in bond funds and adjustments in net asset value precision [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, the average return of pure bond funds was -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [3]. - Nearly 40 bond funds have announced large redemptions since July, compared to 19 and 14 in June and May, respectively [3]. Group 2: Redemption and Adjustments - Major fund companies, including Guotai Junan, Huashang, and others, have raised the net asset value precision of their bond funds due to large redemptions [3]. - The adjustment in net asset value precision aims to protect the interests of fund holders from adverse effects caused by the precision of net asset value [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term, with a focus on short-term recovery opportunities [5][7]. - Factors such as the improvement of deflation expectations and the easing of US-China tariff frictions are expected to exert pressure on the bond market [6][7]. - The potential for a rebound in the bond market exists, driven by the recent central bank liquidity injections and the anticipated stabilization of the economic environment [4][8].

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has seen a slight increase of 0.02%, with the latest price at 124.87 yuan, indicating active market trading with a turnover of 28.1% and a transaction volume of 5.057 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 18.008 billion yuan, marking a one-month high, with net inflows of 2.154 billion yuan over three out of the last five trading days [1] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 342.5 billion yuan and initiated a total scale of 1.4 trillion yuan for a buyout reverse repurchase operation, signaling stable liquidity and a potential recovery window for the bond market [1] Group 2 - The current DR001 rate is around 1.3%, while the one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit yield remains above 1.6%, suggesting some investment appeal despite recent strong performance in the equity market [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year treasury bonds, serving as a benchmark for investment in this category [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through increased reverse repurchase operations, signaling a commitment to stabilize market expectations and credit conditions amid a peak in government bond issuance [1][2][3]. Group 1: PBOC Operations - On July 15, the PBOC conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 342.5 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan for the day [1]. - The PBOC also announced a total of 1.4 trillion yuan in buyout reverse repurchase operations, with 800 billion yuan for 3-month and 600 billion yuan for 6-month terms, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1][2]. - The total amount of buyout reverse repos maturing in July is 1.2 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan for the month, marking the second consecutive month of increased operations [1][2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Analysts note that the current liquidity environment is under pressure due to a significant tax payment period and increased government bond issuance, with expected net financing exceeding 1 trillion yuan [3][4]. - The liquidity disturbances are manageable, with analysts suggesting that the impact of tax payments on liquidity is historically controllable, typically within a fluctuation range of ±2 basis points for representative rates [3][4]. - The overall market sentiment remains stable, with the PBOC's actions expected to maintain a steady interest rate environment, although the balance between liquidity disturbances and market expectations will be crucial for asset pricing [4]. Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to benefit from the PBOC's reverse repurchase operations, potentially leading to a recovery if liquidity remains stable or improves [5]. - As of July 15, the yields on 30-year and 10-year government bonds have decreased slightly, indicating a positive response to the PBOC's liquidity measures [5]. - Analysts recommend a strategy of increasing allocations to high-grade credit bonds as opportunities arise, while closely monitoring interest rate changes and policy actions [5].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple fund companies are increasing the precision of their net asset values (NAV) in response to large redemptions, primarily affecting bond funds, to protect the interests of their investors [1][2][5]. Fund Adjustments - On July 9, Xinda Australia Fund announced an adjustment to the NAV precision of its Xin'ao Anshengli Pure Bond Fund due to a significant redemption on July 8, 2025, increasing the precision to eight decimal places [2]. - Similarly, Hui'an Fund announced on July 9 that its Hui'an Yutai Pure Bond Fund would also increase its NAV precision to eight decimal places following a large redemption on July 7, 2025 [5]. - Other fund companies, including Huashan, Guotai Junan Asset Management, and others, have also made similar announcements regarding NAV precision adjustments due to large redemptions occurring in early July [5]. Market Conditions - The bond market has transitioned from a bull market to a high-volatility phase, with cautious sentiment prevailing among fund companies [6]. - According to Yifangda Fund, liquidity issues in July are less severe than in June, and the recent stock market rally has improved market risk appetite, which may temporarily affect long-term bond rates [6]. - Jia Shi Fund anticipates that macroeconomic and liquidity conditions will remain favorable for both stock and bond investments, with expectations of continued monetary easing [6]. Future Outlook - Ping An Fund highlights potential risks in the bond market due to adjustments after significant gains, with limited upside in yield levels [7]. - Credit bond yields and spreads have fluctuated since the beginning of 2025, with expectations of continued downward movement in credit bond yields due to sustained liquidity [7].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple fund companies are increasing the precision of net asset values to address redemption issues, particularly in bond funds, as the bond market enters a recovery phase but remains cautious [2][6]. Group 1: Fund Adjustments - Several fund companies, including Xinda Australia Fund and Huian Fund, have announced adjustments to the net asset value precision of their funds due to significant redemptions, increasing precision to eight decimal places [4][5]. - Other companies such as Guotai Junan, Changcheng, and Jiashi have also made similar announcements regarding their bond funds in response to large redemptions [4][5]. Group 2: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market has transitioned from a bull market to a high-volatility phase due to factors like liquidity, tariff negotiations, and risk appetite, with a cautious sentiment prevailing [7]. - Companies like Yifangda Fund indicate that liquidity issues have lessened compared to June, and while short-term impacts from stock market strength may affect long-term bond yields, the overall trend is expected to be downward [7]. - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for both stock and bond investments, with expectations of continued monetary easing and potential rate cuts to support market liquidity [7]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to see a decline in yields, with limited space for compression in short- to medium-term credit spreads, while long-term credit bonds may experience a similar trend [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the bond market is experiencing a supportive environment due to a generally loose liquidity situation, despite a recent net withdrawal by the central bank [1] - The 30-year main contract for treasury futures rose by 0.13%, and the yield on the 30-year treasury bond decreased by nearly 2 basis points [1] - The upcoming reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut on the 15th is expected to further support the bond market, with the 10-year treasury yield likely facing an adjustment ceiling around 1.7% [1] Group 2 - The recent inflow into the government bond ETF (511520) exceeded 1.8 billion, bringing its total scale to over 46.4 billion, making it the largest bond ETF in the market [1] - The government bond ETF has a duration of approximately 7.5 years, offering good liquidity and serving as a useful tool for bond market trading and allocation [1] - Related products include the government bond ETF (511520) and various classes of the Fortune China Bond 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF [1]