Industry Overview - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from domestic demand policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on post-completion projects and renovation of second-hand homes [1] - As of April 30, the overall PB (Price to Book) for the construction materials sector is at 1.0x, indicating a historical low valuation, while the PE (Price to Earnings) for various segments shows significant differences [1] - In Q1 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 20 major cities reached 521,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 26.88%, indicating a resilient real estate market [1] Cement Sector - The cement market is experiencing a weak recovery in demand, with a projected year-on-year decline of 1.4% in Q1 2025 production, but municipal infrastructure is providing some support [2] - Central government policies promoting production optimization and price maintenance have improved the profitability of cement companies, with gross and net profit margins expected to rise in 2024 [2] - The overall average price of cement is anticipated to continue its upward trend in 2025, leading to a potential recovery in industry profits [2] Glass Sector - Demand for glass remains resilient, primarily driven by the progress in housing completion projects, although prices are under pressure due to overall weak demand [3] - Seasonal demand is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, with fewer production lines expected to resume operations, leading to a more stable industry environment [3] - The recommendation for investment focuses on companies like Qibin Group, which are expected to see a reversal in profitability and valuation [3] Consumer Building Materials - Retail business is becoming a key growth driver, with leading companies accelerating their retail development in response to the renovation cycle of second-hand and existing homes [4] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with leading companies increasing their market share, particularly in the waterproofing materials sector [4] - The consumer building materials sector is currently undervalued, with a low allocation in public fund holdings, suggesting potential for growth [4] Glass Fiber Sector - The glass fiber industry is seeing a recovery in prices due to improved demand from wind energy and consumer electronics, with the average price reaching 3,812.5 yuan/ton as of April 18, 2025 [5] - Inventory levels have decreased, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance, which is favorable for long-term industry growth [5] - Leading companies in the glass fiber sector are expected to benefit from valuation and profit recovery opportunities [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese stock market and various sectors including finance, technology, basic materials, real estate, steel, and construction materials [1][3][4][21][23]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Stock Market Dynamics**: The core driver for the rise in the Chinese stock market is the reduction in discount rates, with the risk-free rate (domestic long-term bond yield below 2%) and risk premium levels decreasing, enhancing the attractiveness of equity products [1][6][10]. - **Economic Outlook**: Although the economic situation in China is improving slowly, investor sentiment has shifted from overly pessimistic to a more balanced view, leading to a diminishing impact of valuation contraction [5][9]. - **Policy Support**: Fiscal policies are expected to be introduced around mid-year, with financial policies taking precedence as the main strategy [1][4][5]. - **Sector Recommendations**: The financial, technology, and certain basic materials sectors are favored due to their potential for growth and innovation, benefiting from lower funding costs due to reduced discount rates [1][7][8]. - **Real Estate Recovery**: The real estate market is anticipated to undergo a comprehensive recovery, with new home prices in first-tier cities beginning to rise. Developer financial recovery is expected to become evident by Q4 2025 [1][12][13]. - **Construction Materials**: The construction materials sector is showing signs of stabilization in volume and profitability, with improved corporate governance. Key companies to watch include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Oriental Yuhong [1][16]. - **Basic Chemicals**: Recommendations include domestic demand products (compound fertilizers, civil explosives), price-increasing products (refrigerants), and leading companies in technical chemicals [1][17][18]. Additional Important Insights - **Steel Sector**: The steel sector is experiencing a demand cycle bottoming out, with a supply contraction phase beginning and raw material prices declining. Recommended companies include Baosteel and Hualin Steel [2][21][22]. - **Investor Behavior**: New investors in the Chinese stock market are adopting different investment logic, focusing on companies with perpetual growth and monopoly positions, as well as emerging technology leaders [11]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the market is shifting towards a more optimistic outlook, with expectations of policy support and economic recovery driving interest in equities [4][10][19]. - **Construction Sector Recovery**: The construction sector is rebounding due to improved expectations for project financing and seasonal construction activity [20][23]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of various sectors within the Chinese market.

东 海 研 究 东 海 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月12日 [Table_Title] 4月通胀环比回升且符合市场预期 [table_main] [Table_Report] 4月CPI同比降幅维持不变且符合市场预期。上游端国际大宗商品价格总体有所下降，但 内需型商品价格在基建以及消费等内需政策支持下整体有所改善，价格中枢短期变化不 大，PPI降幅高于市场预期；4月份，消费政策刺激加强而且由于食品价格以及服务价格回 升，CPI环比上升，同比降幅维持不变且符合市场预期，但短期通胀仍旧较低。目前随着 天气回暖，基建项目开工有所加快，钢材、水泥等需求逐步恢复，但房地产需求仍旧偏弱， 国内工业品需求整体偏弱；短期随着美国对中国加征高额关税，内需型商品价格在消费等 内需政策支持下整体有所改善，价格中枢短期变化不大。国外由于及OPEC+增产以及美国 关税政策导致需求预期下降，原油价格整体下降；海外商品需求上升、美元走弱以及美国 加征关税导致成本上升，有色价格整体震荡反弹；但4月之后随着美国"对等关税"政策 落地，美国进口成本大幅上升，海外商品价格中枢整体上移。整体来看，上游国际大 ...

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观】货币宽松"再发力"——5月7日央行一揽子货币政策点评 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市场"的明确信号，体现了央行前瞻部署、主 动作为。 一揽子三大类 10 项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发力，对实体和资本市场的 全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下，央行宽松周期预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进 一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 财政或继续加快债券发行节奏，尤其是增加对消费领域支持力度，如有必要，下半年或继续增加全年财政 额度；房地产政策也有望进一步放松。另外 ，出口方面的针对性支持政策也在加码。 短期来看，关税摩擦对市场预期的影响相比于前期可能已在减弱，预期冲击最大的时候可能已经过去。 不 过从对经济的影响来看，实际冲击可能从 4 月数据开始逐步显现，再加上当前内需还要进一步巩固的背景 下，更需关注接下来国内经济基本面变化：一是 4 月出口可能还有前期抢出口的支撑，但 5 、 6 月份数 据可能会明显体现关税的冲击；二是地产的止跌企稳可能还需要更多政策支持，三是居民部门资产负债表 压力或未明显缓解。 ...

策略周论：暗藏的变化 20250505 摘要 • 关税冲击修复：日本和美国股市在关税影响消除后反弹，并在 5 月 2 日超 过关税前水平，部分甚至创新高，表明关税冲击对股市影响已基本修复。 • 中国资产韧性：尽管中国资产在关税冲击后表现较弱，但对美贸易依赖度 下降使其具备韧性，且市场尚未充分定价这一因素。 • 美国股市纠结：美国股市虽因非农数据超预期而创新高，但 GDP 数据不及 预期，叠加政治因素，导致美股反弹脆弱，降息预期可能延后。 • 中国政策应对：中国加强与非美经济体合作，并释放与美国接触的信息， 同时预计将出台内需政策，以应对外部贸易不确定性并促进国内需求。 • 宏观波动预测：预计到 2025 年第二季度，美国宏观波动将放大，中国将 明确外部谈判结果并出台内需政策，共同导致全球市场波动加剧。 • 下游盈利修复：自 2022 年起，下游领域盈利逐步修复，中游也开始触底， 内需板块中一季报表现较好的公司可能引起市场关注。 • 黄金市场换挡：人民币资产修复削弱了黄金的中国需求支撑，资金可能回 流人民币资产。黄金在回调后将进入换挡时期，逐步企稳蓄力。 Q&A 关税冲击对全球市场的影响如何？ 美国股市在近期的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is facing increasing pressure in the short term, but there are expectations for domestic demand policies to take effect [5] - The company reported a revenue of 895 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114 million yuan, down 25.95% year-on-year [7] - The company is positioned as a leading retailer in the plastic pipe sector, benefiting from domestic demand policies and high dividend yields, which enhance its defensive attributes [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023 is 6,378 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 8.27%, and is expected to recover to 6,612 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.51% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1,000 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.92% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.53 [6] Market Performance - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 40.45%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to weak market demand and intensified competition [7] - Financial expenses increased significantly, with a growth of 84.16% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in interest income [7] - Cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, with a net cash flow increase of 260 million yuan year-on-year, attributed to reduced raw material purchases [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from infrastructure investments and an increase in market share in the retail sector, providing a performance safety net [7] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 1,000 million, 1,102 million, and 1,219 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.63, 0.69, and 0.77 yuan [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20, 18, and 16 for 2025-2027, indicating potential for value accumulation [7]

文 ｜ 扈世民 张昕玥 张庆焕 ▍ 航空：波音交付扰动，供给增速或进一步降至1 ~ 2%，关注五一前布局机会。 对美关税反制提升产业链采购成本，行业供给进一步受限，2 0 2 5年国内三大航飞机引进增速或降至1%~ 2%。 中国出台一系列关于美国对华加 征关税的反制措施，目前源自美国的进口商品需缴纳1 2 5%的关税。我国在商用飞机和关键零部件方面对进口产品依赖度较高，2 0 2 4年进口航 空航天器机器零件中来自美国的商品金额占比5 0%，因此产业链受关税影响较大。一方面，面对显著上升的采购成本，我们预计国内各航司将 暂停波音飞机的引进计划。假设从4月9日起国内停止引进波音飞机但保持退出计划（按照各公司此前披露的计划，2 0 2 5~2 7年国内三大航波音 订单1 8 8架，占整体订单3 2%），则我们测算2 0 2 5 / 2 0 2 6年三者的机队增速或降低1 . 5 p c ts/ 2 . 1 p c ts至2 . 9%/ 2 . 9%，若假设延迟波音的退出计 划，则机队增速或降低0 . 3 p c t/ 0 . 8 p c t至4 . 1%/ 4 . 2%。另一方面，航司日常维修所需的进口航材也将面 ...

文 ｜ 扈世民 张昕玥 张庆焕 应对外部冲击，政策层近期高度重视"做大做强国内大循环"，采取以旧换新补贴扩容、特定群体补贴、类"消费券"政策等政策组合提振内需，关 注受益内需政策加码的航空、物流和区域集运龙头。1）航空：面对显著上升的采购成本，我们预计国内各航司将暂停波音飞机的引进计划，假 设从4月9日起国内停止引进波音飞机但保持退出计划，则我们测算2 0 2 5 / 2 0 2 6年三大航的机队增速或降低1 . 5 p c ts/ 2 . 1 p c ts至2 . 9%/ 2 . 9%。若假设 延迟波音的退出计划叠加航材采购成本上升，我们预计2 0 2 5年国内三大航飞机引进增速或降至1%~2%。关税反制进一步限制航空业供给，票价 拐点渐近，国际油价下跌释放利润空间，关注五一前航空布局机会。2）物流：以旧换新国补扩容及潜在的消费刺激政策有望传导至需求端，选 取品类相关度高的顺周期龙头。3）区域集运：复盘历史，积极的财政政策有望推动大宗商品需求的修复，2 0 2 4年内贸行业CR3接近8 0%，预计 需求变化将传导至运价端，同时潜在转运需求有望传导至亚洲区域集装箱船东，建议关注受益于内需修复弹性的内贸集运龙头 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆ indicates a slightly bullish/bearish view with weak trading operability [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★☆★ - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ suggests a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★ - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★ - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆ represents a clear bearish/bullish trend with an ongoing market movement [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★☆ Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic. The cost side of carbon elements is declining, and the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, inventory, and demand. Different varieties have different trends, mainly including weak trends for steel, coke, and coking coal, and a sideways trend for iron ore [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel futures market is weak today. Thread steel's apparent demand has rebounded significantly in the short term, but its sustainability is uncertain. Hot - rolled coil demand has improved, and inventory has continued to decline [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of thread steel has decreased slightly, and the inventory has been depleted faster. The production of hot - rolled coil has stabilized. The profit per ton of steel has declined, and the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down [1] - **Downstream Industries**: Infrastructure and manufacturing have improved, and the decline in real - estate sales and new construction has narrowed marginally but remains weak. Exports are affected by US tariff hikes, and domestic demand policies need to be strengthened [1] - **Outlook**: The market outlook is pessimistic, and the weak market situation is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the intensity of peak - season demand and changes in domestic and foreign macro - policies [1] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore futures market is oscillating today [2] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments have increased slightly, and domestic arrivals have decreased this period but remain above the annual average. Port inventory has been significantly depleted, and there is a seasonal growth expectation [2] - **Demand**: Terminal demand is resilient, steel mills have certain profits, and the resumption of hot - metal production has slowed but still has room for further growth [2] - **Outlook**: The overall trend of iron ore is expected to be oscillating, and the price has certain short - term support [2] Coke - **Market Performance**: The coke price has oscillated downward today [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, and coke production has also increased slightly after the first price increase. The overall inventory depletion is poor, and the inventory remains high [3] - **Outlook**: The coke futures premium has been compressed, and the price is affected by inventory and tariff disturbances. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [3] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal price has oscillated downward today [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Due to individual accidents and working - face switching, the production has been affected. The spot auction market has weakened marginally, and the terminal inventory is still high. The total inventory is basically flat, and downstream purchases are for rigid demand. Imported Mongolian coal transactions are weak [5] - **Outlook**: The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production may reach its peak. The price is affected by inventory and tariff disturbances. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [5] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The silicon manganese price has declined today [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Manganese ore port inventory has been increasing, and the price of manganese ore has declined. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, and the supply of silicon manganese has decreased slightly from a high level. The overall inventory has increased significantly [6] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short on rebounds as the manganese ore inventory is increasing [6] Silicon Iron - **Market Performance**: The silicon iron price has declined today [7] - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, export demand has decreased marginally, and metal magnesium production has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has increased [7] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short on rebounds due to its weak fundamentals [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a volume contraction with a mix of weight protection and structural differentiation, where defensive sectors and potential policy-driven directions are performing well [1] - China's Q1 economic data exceeded expectations, with GDP growth rate at 5.4% year-on-year and March retail sales growth at 5.9%, both surpassing previous values and forecasts [1] - March exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, significantly higher than expectations, indicating that tariff impacts have not yet manifested [1] Group 2 - Investment focus is shifting towards policy expectations and data validation, with short-term attention on policy drivers, domestic consumption sectors, and defensive dividend assets [2] - Long-term focus includes the potential for domestic substitution in the technology sector, while also considering gold and military industries for risk hedging [2] - The real estate industry chain and large consumption sectors are expected to receive further policy support, enhancing their investment appeal [2]