Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro - level positive factors continue to boost market sentiment, and the rising upstream coal prices lead to a continuous increase in the polyolefin futures market. However, the fundamentals are difficult to improve significantly. Upstream petrochemical plants are entering the maintenance season, with an increasing trend in maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and slightly reduces production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, causing international oil and propane prices to decline. The production profit of PDH - made PP turns from loss to profit, and the cost - side support weakens. Downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the agricultural film start - up rate rising from the bottom and the plastic weaving start - up rate falling, while other downstream start - up rates remain stable [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7329 yuan/ton (+51), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7112 yuan/ton (+34). The LL spot price in North China is 7220 yuan/ton (+40), the LL spot price in East China is 7270 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 7130 yuan/ton (+10). The LL basis in North China is - 109 yuan/ton (-11), the LL basis in East China is - 59 yuan/ton (-51), and the PP basis in East China is 18 yuan/ton (-24) [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The PE start - up rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), and the PP start - up rate is 76.6% (-0.8%). The PE oil - based production profit is 87.5 yuan/ton (-7.3), the PP oil - based production profit is - 302.5 yuan/ton (-7.3), and the PDH - made PP production profit is 194.2 yuan/ton (-56.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 144.9 yuan/ton (-5.4), the PP import profit is - 640.5 yuan/ton (-5.7), and the PP export profit is 30.2 US dollars/ton (+0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate is 42.2% (-1.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 60.3% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants are entering the maintenance season, with an increasing trend in maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and slightly reduces production inventory [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP2509 rose 0.22% to close at 6,969 yuan/ton. On the supply side, this week's PP production increased by 2.36% month-on-month to 757,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.63% month-on-month to 78.64%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of PP downstream industries decreased by 0.04% month-on-month to 49.87%. In terms of inventory, this week's PP commercial inventory decreased by 4.04% month-on-month to 786,000 tons, with little pressure. Recently, with the launch of new production capacity and the restart of shutdown devices, the pressure on the supply side of the PP industry has increased. It is the off-season for downstream industries, the demand continues to be weak, and the downstream operating rate maintains a slight downward trend. Overseas demand declines seasonally, making it difficult to ease the domestic supply-demand contradiction. Recently, international oil prices have strengthened due to macro-positive factors and the deterioration of geopolitical situations, enhancing the cost support for oil-based production. In the short term, PP2509 is expected to show a volatile trend. Pay attention to the support around 6,930 and the resistance around 7,020 on the daily K-line [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polypropylene was 6,969 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,918 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6,909 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,969 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The trading volume of polypropylene (PP) was 208,464 lots, a decrease of 15,731 lots; the open interest was 490,786 lots, a decrease of 10,626 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 holders was 423,197 lots, a decrease of 10,118 lots; the sell order volume was 491,914 lots, a decrease of 6,769 lots; the net buy order volume was -68,717 lots, a decrease of 3,349 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of polypropylene PP was 7,560 lots, an increase of 2,500 lots [2]. Spot Market - The CFR Southeast Asia middle price of PP (fiber/injection molding) was 904 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East middle price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) was 859 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The duty-paid self-pickup price of PP (drawn grade) in Zhejiang was 7,140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene was 751 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price of propane in the Far East was 560 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.66 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.25 US dollars/barrel; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 571.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of polypropylene (PP) in petrochemical enterprises was 77.01%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of polypropylene was 50.01%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points; the operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of injection molding was 56.09%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the operating rate of BOPP was 60.41%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; the operating rate of PP pipes was 36.13%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the operating rate of tape master rolls was 50.74%, unchanged; the operating rate of PP non-woven fabrics was 37.03%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the operating rate of CPP was 57.38%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of polypropylene was 7.41%, a decrease of 2.41 percentage points; the 40-day historical volatility was 9.09%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at-the-money put options for polypropylene was 10.12%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money call options was 10.12%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From June 6th to 12th, the domestic polypropylene production was 757,700 tons, a 2.36% increase from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.64%, a 1.63% increase from the previous period. - From June 6th to 12th, the average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.87%. - As of June 11th, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 786,000 tons, a 4.04% decrease from the previous period [2].

Group 1 - The black sector is experiencing a price rebound due to macroeconomic sentiment, but the upside is limited by supply and demand conditions [1] - Domestic demand is seasonally weakening, with electric furnaces and some blast furnaces facing losses, leading to a decline in molten iron production [1] - The supply of iron ore is not meeting expectations, with a year-on-year decrease in cumulative shipments and a slowdown in new project ramp-ups [1] Group 2 - The coal supply remains stable, with high production levels, while the news regarding the increase in coal export tariffs from Mongolia has not been confirmed [1] - The market for alloy materials is under pressure due to increased inventory and cautious market sentiment, particularly in manganese and silicon iron [1] - The glass sector is facing declining demand in the off-season, with weak processing demand and existing supply pressures [1] Group 3 - Overall, the previous price declines have created momentum for a rebound, driven by macroeconomic factors and news related to coking coal [1] - Despite the rebound, the construction and manufacturing sectors are entering a low-demand season, limiting the potential for significant demand growth [1] - The medium-term outlook suggests a volatile market, with attention needed on future policy directions [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Short - term, due to the China - US leaders' call, the expectation of economic improvement has increased, and the futures price may rebound from a low valuation driven by the improvement of commodity sentiment. Mid - term, the urea fundamentals still face pressure, and the price center may gradually decline, but the release of exports may bring multi - stage price rebounds [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,722 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,739 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan; the trading volume was 269,277 lots, an increase of 105,710 lots; the open interest was 245,711 lots, an increase of 26,121 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 6,357 tons, down 52 tons; the trading value was 9.36559 billion yuan, an increase of 3.56433 billion yuan. The basis in Shandong area was 128, up 32; the difference between Fengxi and the disk was - 12, up 32; the difference between Dongguang and the disk was 108, up 52; the spread between UR09 - UR01 was 52, down 16 [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Shandong Ruixing, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged, while the price of Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 20 yuan to 1,710 yuan/ton. The prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi areas decreased by 20 yuan to 1,850 yuan/ton and 1,710 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 90.16%, up 0.57 percentage points, and the daily output was 207,310 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons [2] 2. Industry News - As of June 4, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 5.59%. Due to the weakening of short - term speculative activities of traders, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to continue rising next week [2] - Futures: Short - term, the futures price may rebound from a low valuation driven by the improvement of commodity sentiment. Mid - term, the urea fundamentals still face pressure, and the price center may gradually decline, but the release of exports may bring multi - stage price rebounds [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

最新数据显示，2025年前4个月，泰国天胶、混合胶合计出口量157.3万吨同比增13.5%，越南天胶、混 合胶合计出口量45万吨同比降5.9% 分析观点： （5月30日）今日全国天然橡 胶价格一览表 | 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/ | 报价 | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 产地 | | 类型 | | | | 天然橡胶 | 类别:标准胶;级别:SCRWF; | 广垦 | 13400 | 市场 | 山东省/青 | 浙江万方贸易有限公 | | （SCRWF） | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 岛市 | 司 | | 天然橡胶 | 类别:标准胶;级别:SCRWF; | 云南 | 13700 | 市场 | 山东省/青 | 汇连聚上海网络科技 | | （SCRWF） | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 岛市 | 有限公司 | 期货市场上看，5月30日收盘，天然橡胶期货主力合约报13405.00元/吨，跌幅3.14%，最高触及13880.00 元/吨，最低下探13400.00元/吨，日内成交量达568468手。 【市场资讯 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various black metal products are all ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment for black metals is pessimistic, with weak demand expectations and a gloomy market atmosphere. Most product prices are under downward pressure, and the market is influenced by factors such as seasonal demand changes, supply - side capacity, and policy expectations [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - Steel futures showed an inertial decline. In the off - season, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to fall but at a slower pace. The supply pressure remained high, and the negative feedback expectation kept fermenting. The downstream industries had poor performance, and the demand outlook was pessimistic. The short - term downward trend may be followed by increased volatility [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated. The global shipment was in normal fluctuation, and the domestic arrival volume was expected to rise. The terminal demand entered the off - season, and the molten iron production decreased slightly. The iron ore supply - demand relationship faced marginal weakening pressure, and the ore price was expected to show a weak oscillation [3]. Coke - Coke prices continued to decline, with the second - round price cut fully implemented. The molten iron production decreased slightly, and the overall coke inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the negative feedback needed to be observed. The coke futures were basically at par, and it was not advisable to be overly bearish [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices also continued to fall. The coal mine production was still at a high level, and the spot auction market weakened. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory pressure accumulated rapidly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the negative feedback needed to be observed. The coking coal futures were at a significant discount, and it was not advisable to be overly bearish [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated at a low level. After the leading steel mill's tender, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts, the weekly output increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and the price was weak due to the overall black metal market [7]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated narrowly. The molten iron production decreased slightly, the export demand was stable, and the secondary demand remained high. The supply decreased, the market transaction was average, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price was weak due to the overall black metal market [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are all ★☆☆, including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon is under pressure, with weak demand expectations and fluctuating prices. While there are signs of supply-demand imbalances and negative feedback, the market should not be overly bearish considering the steel sentiment [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. Hot-rolled coil's supply and demand both dropped, and inventory also decreased at a slower pace. Iron ore production is still relatively high, and the supply pressure is large. The negative feedback expectation keeps fermenting. Domestic demand is weak, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. The market sentiment is low, and the market is weak but may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market continued to correct today. The global shipment of iron ore decreased compared with the previous period and was weaker than the same period last year. The arrival volume in China decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to decline. Terminal demand entered the off-season, and the iron ore production decreased slightly last week. It is expected that the short-term reduction of iron ore production is limited. Overall, the supply and demand of iron ore have a certain marginal weakening pressure, and the macro-level benefits have been reflected in the previous rebound. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Coke - Coke prices continued to decline. Iron ore production decreased slightly. The first round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but there were still profits, so the daily coke production remained at a relatively high level this year. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders did not make any purchases. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continued to decline. The production of coking coal mines remained at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut-down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, and the transaction price continued to decline. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the inventory pressure at the production end continued to accumulate rapidly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal remains at a significant discount, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [5] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Ferrosilicon manganese prices dropped significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill ended, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts recently, the weekly production data increased slightly. It is judged that the current production level has led to a decrease in inventory, and the fundamentals have improved slightly. According to the expected arrival data of manganese ore, about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly, and the supply of ferrosilicon manganese increased slightly. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and market expectations have changed. The impact of tariffs should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal remained basically the same, and the demand remained stable at a high level. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The on-balance-sheet inventory decreased slightly. The tariff trend should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [7]

首席点评： 宏观利好，内需接力 中美达成重要共识。中美经贸高层会谈 5月10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务 院副总理当地时间11日晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深 入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。国际方面：俄乌传出谈判迹象，特朗普表示今日 与双方领导展开沟通。巴以冲突仍在持续，暂无停火意向。印巴冲突导致克什米尔地区战火不断，核威 胁升级，大国博弈加剧。特朗普继续批评鲍威尔降息节奏太迟，但短期来看美联储尚未释放降息讯号。 在宏观面向好的预期下，商品将持续迎接不断的扰动冲击。坚定看好需求韧性下，各品种回到基本面轨 道，等待明确新的方向。 重点品种： 航运、原油、聚烯烃 集运欧线： 上周五 EC回调，08合约在传统旺季预期下回调相对有限。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1154美 元/TEU，环比小幅下降7美元/TEU，基本对应于05.19-05.25期间的欧线订舱价，反映5月下旬运价的多 数沿用。在经过前期宏观情绪缓和及美线抢运潮带来的欧线旺季预期升温后，短期市场有所降温，逐渐 回归理性，预计将回归欧线本身的基本面及估值表现。以目前6月初大柜报价 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈，煤焦震荡调整 核心观点 焦炭：5 月 15 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1472 元/吨，日内录得 0.44%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.93 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-800 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级平仓价最新报价为 1440 元/吨，周环比 持平，折合期货仓单成本约 1583 元/吨。中美关税矛盾迎来转机，带动焦 炭期货低位小幅反弹。目前，焦炭基本面格局变化不大，供需维持高位， 短期需求支撑良好，不过需求端增速已开始下滑， ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]