此外，中金公司研究部大类资产配置研究员李昭表示，财政与货币因素持续叠加，让投资者对美元体系 与美元资产的信心下降，导致美元进入贬值周期，今年美元指数已经下跌10%左右。另外，近期委内瑞 拉局势升级叠加俄乌冲突陷入谈判僵局，全球地缘风险升级，也使得具有避险属性的黄金相对受益。 宏源期货分析师王文虎指出，本轮黄金牛市除了短期看涨情绪的释放外，也有中长期宏观经济周期的支 撑。从经济学来看，当前全球经济处于康波周期萧条阶段，在这个阶段，全球主要国家债务膨胀的预期 增强，引导信用货币本位向金属货币本位回归。 来源：滚动播报 （来源：邯郸晚报） 2025年12月29日伦敦现货黄金在创下历史新高后跳水，收盘报4331.96美元/盎司，较上日跌4.4%。分析 师表示，短期金市可能仍会获利回吐，但支撑本轮黄金牛市的中长期因素仍在，预计2026年黄金价格可 能突破5000美元/盎司。 分析人士认为，金价的回调并不意味着本轮黄金牛市结束，本轮黄金牛市背后的三重支撑因素——美联 储重启宽松周期、美元信誉下降以及全球地缘政治风险升级依然存在。 市场对美联储货币政策的宽松预期是近期金价大涨的主要驱动因素。2025年9月以来，美联储已经连 ...

Core Conclusions - The report suggests that 2025 may be just the "prelude" to a bull market, with the Federal Reserve likely to restart interest rate cuts, leading to a rapid return of cross-border capital to China, which will help various price indices (PPI + CPI) emerge from "deflation" [1] - The report anticipates that in 2026, China will experience a period of prosperity similar to Japan in 1978, driven by the appreciation of the RMB, which will enhance cash flow statements and balance sheets in the real economy [1] Group 1: China’s Economic Outlook - China entered the current Kondratiev wave downturn in 2019, but the external constraints are gradually being lifted, allowing for a return to prosperity [1] - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025 will facilitate the recovery of cash flow statements for enterprises and households in China [1] - The anticipated quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve in 2026 will open up policy space for the People's Bank of China to implement similar measures, further aiding the recovery of balance sheets [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The report highlights that the U.S. is currently in a Kondratiev wave downturn, with the stock market and economy on the brink of crisis due to over-reliance on AI investment narratives [2] - It notes that the U.S. stock market is at a "crisis edge," and the potential for liquidity shocks is high as cross-border capital begins to flow out of the U.S. [2] - The report warns that if AI investment expectations fall short, it could lead to a negative narrative impacting U.S. consumption and economic stability [2] Group 3: Global Liquidity Trends - The report predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely to shift towards QE, resulting in an increase in global liquidity [3] - It emphasizes that the primary goal of the Federal Reserve is to prevent liquidity shocks in the U.S. market, which will influence global capital flows [3] - The report suggests that the current tight liquidity in the U.S. is pressuring the Federal Reserve to adopt "quasi-QE" measures [6] Group 4: Currency and Capital Flows - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, cross-border capital is expected to accelerate its return to China, shifting the A-share market from a tech-focused trend to a cyclical recovery [7] - The report anticipates that the RMB exchange rate will likely break previous highs of 6.8 and 6.3, entering a long-term appreciation cycle [7] - It highlights that the RMB's appreciation will create a positive feedback loop, encouraging further capital inflows into China [7] Group 5: Commodity Supercycle - The report discusses a potential supercycle in commodities driven by de-globalization and a dollar crisis, with supply constraints likely to emerge as resource-rich countries tighten supply [9][10] - It suggests that the demand for commodities will remain resilient due to strategic stockpiling and supply chain improvements in various countries [10] - The report indicates that this supercycle could last for several years, with precious metals leading the way in revaluation [11] Group 6: Sectoral Opportunities - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including non-ferrous metals, consumer goods, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from the recovery of cash flow and balance sheets [13] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that are likely to achieve new highs, particularly in the context of the anticipated economic recovery [13] - The report suggests that the manufacturing sector will see a systematic recovery in valuations as cash flow statements improve [11]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 年初的第三仓位中海油港股，也是今年第三大盈利来源，现在看对它的考虑和操作基本准确，目前其仓位已经降到了第五位。我相信，在这轮康波 萧条期中往后它会有再次表现的机会，而在2026年，很可能会给我回补加仓的机会，仓位会回到前三中，这是一个我在往后三五年继续看好的标 的，它的经营壁垒、现金流和分红等都不错，还有一定成长性，分红比例目前我认为是合理的，没有太大向上调的空间，这是它的商业模式特点决 定的。中海油也属于康波萧条期通胀性资产。 来源：雪球 匆匆忙忙、跌宕起伏的2025年过去了，又将迎来新的一年。在过去的一年，账户获得了51%的收益，和很多人比，今年应该算是一个比较中庸的收 益，当然也是个人的选择，这种选择就是仓位配置有重点、但也要考虑均衡和分散，进攻和防御并重，布局近远期相结合，只富一次和活得久最重 要。全年A股基本占总资产的55%~60%，港股基本占总资产的45%~40%，B股很少一点，只有百分之零点几，因港股有色下半年逐渐清仓、年底涨 幅强劲的有色都在A股，年底A股和港股持仓市值比 ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 核心结论 分析师 【策略】资产的信号（20251230）：人民币升值是 2026 繁荣的契机 短期看，大量的待结汇资金和跨境资本有望随人民币升值加速结汇/回流， 强化人民币升值趋势，中长期看，中国强大的工业实力带来的出口竞争力是 人民币升值的根本动力。跨境资本回流叠加化债政策空间打开，实体现金流 量表和资产负债表有望依次修复，2026 年中国有望迎来繁荣的起点。大类 资产继续坚定看好 AH 股/国债等人民币资产，黄金保持战略配置，但对投机 交易保持谨慎，工业金属关注铜、铝、镍等品种，美股&美债或维持震荡。 【银行】寰宇通汇系列八：数字人民币将实现 M0 向 M1 的重要跨越 央行出台《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融基础设施建 设的行动方案》，宣布新一代数字人民币体系将于 2026 年 1 月 1 日正式启 动实施。该方案从机制上明确数字人民币将实现 M0 向 M1 的跨越，同时坚 持"全局一本账"的双层运营架构，未来或有望实现全国统一的管理服务体 系，对银行业和金融科技领域均产生影响。 【医药生物】和誉-B（2256.HK）近况更新：匹 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that China is entering a period of prosperity similar to Japan in 1978, driven by high industrial value added and export ratios, along with continued trade surpluses and wage growth [1][11] - The cash flow statements of the real economy in China have been damaged from 2022 to 2024 due to the Fed's interest rate hikes and a decline in real estate prices, leading to capital outflows and reduced cash flow [2][12] - The resumption of the Fed's interest rate cuts is expected to reverse the outflow of cross-border capital, thereby repairing the cash flow statements of enterprises and households [3][13] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the necessity of debt restructuring in China, drawing parallels with Japan's experience in the 1990s, where failure to act led to prolonged economic stagnation [4][14] - The potential for the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) to provide the necessary liquidity for China's central bank to undertake debt restructuring is highlighted, which could alleviate external constraints on the yuan [4][14] - The year 2026 is projected to mark the beginning of a new prosperity phase for China's economy, with a cyclical shift expected in manufacturing and consumption sectors [6][15] Group 3 - The report recommends a selection of stocks for January 2026, including Huafeng Aluminum, Zijin Mining, and TCL Technology, among others, indicating a focus on sectors poised for growth [9][10] - The automotive sector is highlighted, with Great Wall Motors and Leap Motor being noted for their strategic positioning in high-end and global markets [32][38] - In the chemical sector, Dongfang Tower is recognized for its growth potential driven by increasing potassium and phosphorus production [41][43]

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 此外，中金公司研究部大类资产配置研究员李昭表示，财政与货币因素持续叠加，让投资者对美元体系与美元资产的信 心下降，导致美元进入贬值周期，今年美元指数已经下跌10%左右。另外，近期委内瑞拉局势升级叠加俄乌冲突陷入谈 判僵局，全球地缘风险升级，也使得具有避险属性的黄金相对受益。 王文虎指出，本轮黄金牛市除了短期看涨情绪的释放外，也有中长期宏观经济周期的支撑。从经济学来看，当前全球经 济处于康波周期萧条阶段，在这个阶段，全球主要国家债务膨胀的预期增强，引导信用货币本位向金属货币本位回归。 "比如，从德国9000亿欧元投资计划到美国'大漂亮'法案将债务上限提高5万亿美元，从日本21.3万亿日元经济刺激方案 到英国扩大至220亿英镑的财政缓冲空间，中国等全球多个国家亦存在财政宽松预期，而这些都将以财政赤字货币化的 形式呈现，最终提升黄金等金属的金融属性。"王文虎表示。 周一伦敦现货黄金在创下历史新高后跳水，收盘报4331.96美元/盎司，较上日跌4.4%，较盘中最高4550.52美元/盎司跌 4.8%。分析师表示，短期金市可能仍会获利回吐，但支撑本轮黄金牛市的中长期因素仍在，预计2026年黄金价 ...

策略周报 康波的轮回：2026 繁荣的起点 策略周末谈（1228） 核心结论 1、康波的轮回：康波萧条期，往往是追赶国的繁荣期 我们在 8.31《看向新高》中指出，2018 年中国人均 GDP 突破 1 万美元，正式 步入工业化成熟期：中国制造业强劲的对外出口能力，赚取大量的国民财富，带 来内需消费景气回升。这也是 19-21 年 A 股"核心资产牛市"的基础。 我们在 12.21《康波的年轮：2026 与 1978》中再次提示，当前的中国类似 1978 年的日本，也将迎来繁荣的起点：工业增加值和对外出口占全球份额持续高位， 贸易顺差和人均工资增长额也将继续高位扩张。 2、繁荣的梗阻：22-24 年中国实体部门的现金流量表和资产负债表受损 2019 年以来，全球进入康波萧条期，工业化成熟期的中国事实上迎来了追赶国 的繁荣期。但这种繁荣在 2022 年-2024 年遭遇梗阻—— （1）现金流量表：2022-24 年，美联储激进加息导致中美利差严重倒挂、人民 币贬值，大量的跨境资本外流，国民财富悬挂海外。与此同时，制造业产能过剩 引发的"内卷"，进一步损害了实体部门的自由现金流。 （2）资产负债表：20 年 8 ...

展望2026年，张斌指出，这将是"十五五"规划扬帆启航的关键之年，也是中国经济"告别通胀低估，确立新均衡的转折之年"。他用"奔跑"比喻各方应有的进 取姿态： 中国经济需要奔跑。当前财政政策与货币政策协同发力，扩大内需、提振消费成为首要任务。中国经济长期向好的基本趋势、超大规模市场和完善产业体 系，"始终是我们强劲的底气"。张斌认为，"2026年，中国经济唯有奔跑方能穿越周期"。 资本市场需要奔跑。"十五五"规划建议明确提出，要提高资本市场制度包容性与适应性，健全投融资协调功能。张斌表示，资本市场将在国民经济、产业升 级与居民财富管理中扮演更重要角色，"唯有奔跑方能突破趋势"。 实体产业需要奔跑。在新旧动能转换进入深水区、房地产L型筑底的背景下，人工智能、高端制造等新质生产力正成为增长引擎。产业必须"奔跑方能引领 潮流"。 12月26日，由金融界主办的"启航·2025金融年会"在北京举行。本次年会以"新开局、新动能、新征程"为主题，来自政、商、学、研等领域的100多位嘉宾、 500余家金融机构和上市公司齐聚一堂，共赴这场思想盛宴。 金融界集团董事长、物美集团CEO张斌致辞，系统回顾2025年中国经济与资本市场的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market trend indicates a bullish sentiment, with expectations for the Shanghai Composite Index to break previous highs and continue its upward momentum due to global monetary easing and capital inflows into A-shares [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced a seven-day rally, with predictions of surpassing the previous high of 4034 points [1]. - Major global indices, including U.S. stocks, have reached new highs ahead of Christmas, indicating a strong market performance [1]. - The offshore RMB has successfully broken the 7 mark, and lithium carbonate futures have exceeded 120,000 [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The optimism in the market is attributed to the cyclical nature of economic trends, particularly under the influence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1]. - The end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction and the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds signify true monetary easing, which is expected to weaken the dollar and strengthen A-shares [1]. - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the U.S. provides more room for interest rate cuts in China [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - A-shares and H-shares are anticipated to catch up in valuation compared to U.S. and European markets by 2026 [3]. - The technical conditions for A-shares are favorable, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above the 60-day moving average [3]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology, cyclical assets influenced by Fed policies, and defensive sectors driven by domestic demand [4]. Group 4: Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly related to AI, is expected to be a major focus, as AI is seen as a core component of the current technological revolution [3]. - The cyclical sector is linked to the Fed's monetary policy; easing will lead to rising asset prices and new highs in commodity prices [4]. - Defensive sectors, including new consumption, healthcare, and infrastructure, are expected to benefit from policy incentives [4]. Group 5: Commodity Insights - Copper is highlighted as a critical commodity due to its connection with AI and infrastructure development, particularly in the context of the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" plan [6]. - There is a projected supply-demand gap for copper, driven by increased demand for power supply solutions necessary for AI development [6]. - The potential for aluminum to replace copper in certain applications is debated, but copper's superior properties make it irreplaceable in many cases [6].

《基金经理投资笔记》宏观策略系列 把脉经济周期拐点 实现财富管理升级 作者：魏凤春（博士），创金合信基金首席经济学家 上期基金经理投资笔记从增长、通胀和流动性三大基础因子出发，分析了大类资产配置的基准线。其中提到主要由政 策偏好决定的风险溢价这一因子非常难以量化。2025年最后一周的首席视点将会重点分析政策因子，推演其中的交易 逻辑，至此，2026年投资策略的整体分析将会完成。 策略研究讲究"道法术器"、"谋定而后动"，谋定所指的道与法，在本周首席视点中将会完成，年后的首席视点将会侧 重术与器。也就是说，元旦新年之后，我们将会从过去一个半月的"坐而论道"转向"起而行之"。其中隐含的意思是， 再继续等待就有些靡费时日了。 一、政策分析的基本逻辑 政策因子一直是资产配置中非常具有"艺术性"的代表性内容，此处的艺术性，特指因各具特色，分歧极大，事前无法 验证对错。我们在长期的实践中认识到做好政策交易，首先要做好政策分析，而要做好政策分析，首要的工作是要明 确政府的性质。其次要采取投资者易于理解的方法来解释和推演政策。这里还有个前提，那就是政策实施是有规律 的，政府行为不是"黑匣子"，"包打听"式的政策分析并不能准确 ...