Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Price Movement**: The price of EG rebounded due to the increase in coking coal prices. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,879 yuan/ton (up 41 yuan/ton, or +1.07% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,713 yuan/ton (up 33 yuan/ton, or +0.90% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was -139 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$83/ton (up $10/ton), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was -867 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Inventory**: According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrivals at the main and auxiliary ports this week are relatively high, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Domestically, the syngas - based production load has not decreased significantly, and the domestic ethylene glycol load has rebounded to over 70%. There is still significant pressure to accumulate inventory from January to February due to high supply and weakening demand. Overseas, after the maintenance of plants in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will ease after February. On the demand side, weaving orders have weakened, the load has declined rapidly, and the polyester load has also decreased due to weakening profitability [2]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Neutral. Although the current price is not high, the downstream hidden inventory has reached a high level. With the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased. The pressure of new production capacity and inventory accumulation from January to February is still large, limiting the rebound space. - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread between EG2603 and EG2605. - **Inter - variety**: None [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,879 yuan/ton (up 41 yuan/ton, or +1.07% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,713 yuan/ton (up 33 yuan/ton, or +0.90% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was -139 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$83/ton (up $10/ton), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was -867 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton). The domestic ethylene glycol load has rebounded to over 70% [1][2]. International Price Difference The report does not provide specific analysis content for international price differences, only mentions a chart of "ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" [19]. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Weaving orders have weakened on the margin, the load has declined rapidly, and the polyester load has also decreased due to weakening profitability [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrivals at the main and auxiliary ports this week are relatively high, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Sugar: The raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar - cane for sugar production. International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. In China, the supply of imported sugar is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space is limited [4]. - Cotton: The market has long anticipated the reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang. The Zhengzhou cotton price has reached a recent high, and price fluctuations may increase. Fundamentally, the off - season is not weak, the downstream operating rate has increased year - on - year. Although there is a domestic increase in production, imports are restricted, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [8]. - Protein Meal: The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are large, but the negative crushing margin supports the price, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. - Oils: The current high production and weak exports in palm oil - producing areas have led to high inventories. Domestic inventories of the three major oils are also at a relatively high level, with weak fundamentals. However, the negative soybean crushing margin provides some support. In the long - term, the total consumption of oils for bio - diesel in the US in 2026 may increase significantly. Overall, the oil prices may be close to the bottom range [17]. - Eggs: The capacity reduction is slow, and the overall supply is still large. But due to the late Spring Festival, the stocking sentiment remains, and the expectation of capacity reduction due to continuous losses also exists. The short - term downward space for spot prices is limited, and the upward space is also limited. The futures market has priced in the post - festival price drop and future capacity reduction to some extent, with limited short - term drivers. From a valuation perspective, focus on shorting after a rebound [20]. - Pigs: Low prices stimulate consumption, the late Spring Festival leads to postponed demand, and the structural shortage of large pigs have jointly caused an unexpected rebound in pig prices. The short - term logic for the strong pig prices remains solid, but over time, the structural contradiction is expected to be gradually resolved, and prices may return to the logic of overall oversupply. In the medium - term, the logic supporting the strong pig prices faces the risk of collapse. It is advisable to focus on the upside pressure of contracts in the off - season and short on rebounds. In the long - term, the decline in production capacity will gradually be reflected in pig prices in the second half of the year, and pay attention to the downside support of far - month contracts [23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the May contract was 5259 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, new sugar prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups and processing sugar mills all increased. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 41 yuan/ton [2]. - **Production and Sales Data**: As of January, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production was 194 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 11.96%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.85 percentage points; cumulative sugar sales were 88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 45.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.76 percentage points. In December, single - month production was 180 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43 million tons; single - month sales were 79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55 million tons; industrial inventory was 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6 million tons. Yunnan's cumulative sugar production was 39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 11.34%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.28 percentage points. Cumulative sugar sales were 28.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 71.72%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.98 percentage points. In December, single - month sales were 24.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 million tons; industrial inventory was 11.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1 million tons [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract was 14855 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton or 1.36% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15711 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 856 yuan/ton [6]. - **Export and Inventory Data**: As of the week of December 25, the US current - year cotton export sales were 3.11 million tons, and the cumulative export sales were 151.93 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.27 million tons; the export to China was 0.24 million tons that week, and the cumulative export to China was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.55 million tons. As of the week of January 2, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, flat compared with the previous week and 4.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the national commercial cotton inventory was 529 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10 million tons [6]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, protein meal futures prices continued to rebound. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2776 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.8% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2390 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton or 1.23% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Dongguan soybean meal price was 3100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the soybean meal main contract was 324 yuan/ton; the Huangpu rapeseed meal price was 2520 yuan/ton, flat from the previous trading day, and the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 130 yuan/ton [10]. - **Export and Inventory Data**: As of the week of December 25, US soybean exports were 118 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons from the previous week; the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 2770 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1185 million tons; the export to China was 40 million tons that week, a decrease of 22 million tons from the previous week; the current - year cumulative export to China was 642 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1182 million tons. As of the week of January 2, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 225 million tons, an increase of 108 million tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53 million tons. The sample oil mill operating rate was 50.75%, a year - on - year increase of 0.14 percentage points; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 106 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45 million tons [11]. Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, oil futures prices showed a strong - side fluctuation. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7912 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8500 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 9130 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton or 0.95% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil price was 8460 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the soybean oil main contract was 548 yuan/ton; the Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil price was 8570 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the palm oil main contract was 70 yuan/ton; the Jiangsu rapeseed oil price was 9900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 770 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: A market estimate shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high of 297 million tons, a 4.7% increase from November. In November, Malaysia's palm oil production was 193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.38%; exports were 121 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.45%; the ending inventory was 284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.43%. In October, Indonesia's palm oil production (CPO + PPO) was 476 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.78%; exports were 280 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.19%; the ending inventory was 233 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.75%. As of the week of January 2, the domestic inventory of the three major oils was 208 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20 million tons and a decrease of 2 million tons from the previous week [15]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The national egg prices mostly rose yesterday. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.09 yuan to 3.13 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.09 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. The supply is basically normal, the digestion speed in some markets has slightly improved, and industry players are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. It is expected that today's egg prices may be stable or rising [19]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued the pattern of being strong in the north and weak in the south, with mixed rises and falls. The average price in Henan increased by 0.13 yuan to 12.85 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained flat at 12.74 yuan/kg. The demand for large pigs is good, the slaughter enthusiasm of farmers is average, the supply of pigs is tight, and the downstream has difficulty in low - price procurement. Today's pig prices may continue to be strong [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In December, the caustic soda market declined comprehensively. The average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 718.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.57%. In Jiangsu, it was 826 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.77%. In January, the main contradiction in the caustic soda market is still supply - demand. It is expected that the supply will increase, and the trading strategy is to try shorting at high prices and set a stop - loss at the pressure level for futures, and to wait and see for options [2]. - In December, PVC prices showed a "first - down - then - up" low - level oscillating trend under the dual influence of supply - demand contradictions and policy expectations. Although there was a phased rebound, it did not change the long - term weak pattern. The trading strategy is to wait and see in the short term and observe the upper pressure level for futures, and to wait and see for options [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: In December, the price of liquid caustic soda in the main production areas decreased. The market was affected by factors such as high supply and weak demand from alumina. The price of liquid chlorine supported high - level production, which was negative for the price of caustic soda in Shandong [2]. - **Supply**: In December, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 85.70%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points. The monthly output was 373.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.59% and a year - on - year increase of 5.58%. The inventory pressure of caustic soda plants decreased slightly [24]. - **Demand from Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [28]. - **Export**: In November, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit increased slightly [54]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: In December, PVC prices showed a "first - down - then - up" low - level oscillating trend. The price decline at the beginning of the month was due to high inventory and weak demand, and the subsequent rebound was driven by policy expectations and supply - side marginal changes, but the long - term weak pattern remained unchanged [2]. - **Supply**: In December 2025, the estimated PVC output was 2.1399 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.91% and a year - on - year increase of 4.28%. December is the traditional off - season for PVC demand, and the downstream demand is weak [83]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry continues to have a negative impact on demand, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [85]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [93]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 275,300 tons, with an average export price of 589 US dollars/ton. The monthly export decreased by 11.78% month - on - month and increased by 29.64% year - on - year. The import volume was 15,700 tons, with an average import price of 708 US dollars/ton [110]. Alumina - **Market Situation**: After continuous decline, the alumina price has gradually stabilized, but the fundamental situation is still weak, with an oversupply situation in the domestic market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2650 - 2900 yuan in the short term [35]. Bauxite - **Market Situation**: The bauxite price is stable, and the inventory has been reduced to a certain extent [36]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Situation**: The output of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the in - plant inventory has decreased [42]. Non - Aluminum Downstream - **Market Situation**: The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream industries has declined, and the off - season is approaching [47].

尿素日报 | 2025-12-26 环保预警再现，上下游生产或减量 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-25，尿素主力收盘1740元/吨（+5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1710 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1730元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1720元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0），山东基差：-10 元/吨（-5）；河南基差：-30元/吨（-5）；江苏基差：-20元/吨（-5）；尿素生产利润151元/吨（+0），出口利润821元/ 吨（-13）。 供应端：截至2025-12-25，企业产能利用率78.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为106.89 万吨（-11.08），港口样 本库存量为17.70 万吨（+3.90）。 需求端：截至2025-12-25，复合肥产能利用率37.75%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.07%（-0.48%）；尿素企 近期尿素现货受下游开工小幅恢复及市场宏观氛围影响，成交好转，主流生产企业待发增加，价格上涨新单成交 放缓。但河北、河南环保预警再现，尿素企业及下游工业开工或继续受抑制。供应端四季度气头检修12月开始， 环保预警再现，供应 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory pressure at ports has eased, but the floating storage pressure caused by delayed unloading remains significant. The restart of an Iranian plant has led to fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the duration of winter maintenance of Iranian plants. Although the Iranian operating rate is low, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance needs further confirmation. The MTO maintenance at Ningbo Fude has dragged down port demand [2] - The coal - based methanol production in the inland region is operating well, and there is seasonal winter maintenance of gas - based methanol in the southwest. The new MTO plant, Lianhong Phase II, is operating stably. Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operating rate has slightly rebounded but remains low, the MTBE operating rate remains high, and the formaldehyde operating rate has slightly declined [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][13] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and various import spreads (such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [6][23][24] III. Methanol Operating Rate and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) is provided [6][30][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc., are presented in figures [6][34][42] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][44][53]

· 上午10: 20-11: 00 建材: 产能德出清,政策谋破局 来源：兴业期货 魏莹 | 兴业期货投资咨询部总经理助理 · 投资咨询资格证书编号: Z0014895 上午11: 00-11: 40 炉料:供给曲线扩张,价格区间运行 刘启跃 | 兴业期货投资咨询部资深分析师 投资咨询资格证书编号: Z0016224 （来源：兴业期货） 第2场 有色新能源金属、能源化工专场 12月26日 · 上午9:00-9:40 有色金属: 资源品供给约束 延续,铜铝锡强势,锌镍承压 张舒绮 | 兴业期货投资咨询部团队经理 投资咨询资格证书编号: Z0013114 第1场 宏观、贵金属及黑色金属专场 12月25日 · 上午9:00-9:40 宏观与贵会属: 秩序重构, 贵金属周期性与结构性机会共振 魏莹 | 兴业期货投资咨询部总经理助理 投资咨询资格证书编号: Z0014895 · 上午9: 40-10: 20 钢材: 供需矛盾缓释, 走出周期底部 魏莹 | 兴业期货投资咨询部总经理助理 投资咨询资格证书编号: Z0014895 投资咨询资格证书编号: Z0016224 上午10: 20-11: 00 油化工: 供需压力达 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-12-12 气头开工下降，下游刚需采购 市场分析 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 价格与基差：2025-12-11，尿素主力收盘1638元/吨（-7）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1690 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1710元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1690元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： 72元/吨（+17）；河南基差：52元/吨（+7）；江苏基差：52元/吨（+17）；尿素生产利润180元/吨（+10），出口利润 885元/吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-12-11，企业产能利用率81.85%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为123.42 万吨（-5.63），港口样本 库存量为12.30 万吨（+1.80）。 需求端：截至2025-12-11，复合肥产能利用率40.62%（+0.09%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为61.86%（+0.20%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.94日（-0.41）。 尿素现货价格松动，下游刚需采购。供应端四季度气 ...

国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年11月30日 聚酯数据周报 本周PX观点总结：供减需增，5-9正套。多PX空PTA/BZ | 供应 | 本周PX装置变化不大，国产开工率维持88.5%（-1%），中化泉州停车检修。周度产量74万吨。 GS装置后期有停车计划，浙石化1月CDU有检修计划，PX负荷预计下滑，PX供应端有收缩预期。亚洲开工率78.7%（-1%）。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 本周虹港250万吨PTA装置重启，中泰120万吨PTA装置提负，个别装置负荷小幅调整，至周四PTA负荷调整至73.7%（+1.6%）。周度产量 144万吨左右。 | | 观点 | 芳烃调油需求减弱，但PX供减需增，2026年上半年供需格局仍偏紧，1月份浙石化PX负荷可能进一步下降，多PX空BZ继续持有，5-9正套。 多MEG空PX持有。 | | 估值 | PXN260美元/吨(+1)。PX-MX韩国FOB价差112美金/吨（+8），山东PX-MX价差1396元/吨（-9）。PXN价差上升至高位，生 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Equity Index**: Domestic equity indices are resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. In Q4 2025, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations include periodic corrections and rebounds, with limited downside risks. The technology sector is showing a structural recovery, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to wait and see, and one can try to lightly sell put options at support levels [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term weak market sentiment may continue. Potential factors to break the current range include the implementation of new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. It is recommended to wait and see for the single - side strategy, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract in the cash - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have broken through previous resistance and are expected to rise above $4200. Silver prices may approach the previous high of $54 under the influence of the delivery period. Long positions can be held. For platinum, a low - buying strategy is recommended, or one can buy out - of - the - money call options and try a long - platinum short - palladium hedge [2]. - **Shipping Index**: The EC (European Line) main contract is weakly oscillating, with a short - term weak trend [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel mills are reducing production. A long - steel short - iron ore arbitrage and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar are recommended. Iron ore is oscillating in the range of 750 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is viewed as oscillating downward, with a range of 1010 - 1120, and a 1 - 5 spread arbitrage can be considered. Coke is also expected to oscillate downward after four rounds of price increases, with a range of 1500 - 1650 [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Different non - ferrous metals have different trends. For example, copper is in a certain price range, and tin prices are strongly oscillating. Specific trading strategies are provided for each metal [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate futures have their own price trends. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see due to large intraday fluctuations [2]. - **Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and price trend. For example, PTA is expected to have a short - term high - level oscillation, and short - fiber processing fees are expected to be compressed [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, palm oil may test the resistance at 8600, and sugar is in a bottom - level oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Equity Index**: IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512 are in a narrow - range oscillation. The A - share market is in adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see or lightly sell put options [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: TF2603, TS2603, TI2603 are oscillating downward. Wait and see for single - side strategies and consider positive arbitrage for the 2603 contract [2]. - **Precious Metals**: AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, PD2606 have different price trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: RB2601, I2601. Steel mills' production cuts lead to a long - steel short - iron ore arbitrage strategy. Iron ore oscillates between 750 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: JM2601, J2601. Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate downward, with specific price ranges and arbitrage suggestions [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper, Aluminum, etc.**: CU2601, AL2601, etc. Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market conditions [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon and Lithium Carbonate**: PS2601, LC2605. Polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation, and lithium carbonate has large intraday fluctuations, with a wait - and - see recommendation [2]. Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, etc.**: PX2601, TA2601, etc. Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading strategies [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains, Oils, etc.**: M2601, RM601, LH2601, etc. Different agricultural products have different price trends and trading suggestions, such as long - short arbitrage for some products [2].

化工日报 | 2025-11-19 煤价大幅下跌，EG基差继续走弱 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3907元/吨（较前一交易日变动-31元/吨，幅度-0.79%），EG华东市场现货价 3955元/吨（较前一交易日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.50%），EG华东现货基差30元/吨（环比-12元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-56美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-974 元/吨（环比-7元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨（环比+7.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.8万吨（环比+5.4万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数17万吨，副 港到港量4.7万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副港到港量2.8万吨，整体中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 11月中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈现中性偏多，港口库存预计逐步回升。需求端，近期随着降温，聚酯下游适 度好转，但聚酯负荷提升有 ...