Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The market is in a low - valuation state, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. It is in a period of negative factor realization. With macroeconomic instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of two major oil companies is neutral compared to the same period. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. Overall inventory is neutral. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. In June, maintenance is decreasing month - on - month, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. The basis is + 100, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Exports are performing well this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under neutral to excessive pressure. If exports continue to boom or PDH device maintenance increases, supply pressure can be alleviated [6]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150. Middle and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability. The current static inventory is at a high level but decreasing. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [10]. 3. Summary by Sector Methanol - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased by 100, South China spot by 133, and Northwest converted - to - futures price by 18. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main - contract basis increased by 30. The MTO profit on the futures market increased by 187 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: High imports are being realized, and inventory accumulation has started. Iranian production has decreased, but non - Iranian supply has increased, and domestic supply has also risen [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, North China LL decreased by 115, and East China LD decreased by 75. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 194 [6]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The inventory of two major oil companies is neutral. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. In June, maintenance is decreasing month - on - month, and domestic linear production is increasing [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Shandong propylene decreased by 90, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 188. The basis increased by 60 [6]. - **Inventory and Supply**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under over - capacity, the 09 contract is under pressure [6]. PVC - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Northwest calcium carbide decreased by 25, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 80 [10]. - **Inventory and Supply**: Middle and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices is ongoing, and the load is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability [10].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/24 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/1 7 801 2615 2563 2500 2650 2460 2590 282 325 183 150 -1001 2025/06/1 8 801 2700 2615 2500 2650 2455 2598 290 332 179 175 -1001 2025/06/1 9 801 2765 2680 2515 2700 2455 2605 302 341 143 185 -1001 2025/06/2 0 801 2750 2665 2525 2700 2480 2600 296 341 195 210 -1001 2025/06/2 3 801 2740 2643 2543 2700 2480 2633 296 341 195 210 -1001 日度变化 0 -10 -22 18 0 0 33 0 0 0 0 0 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The price of steel has shown signs of stabilization and rebound, but the basis is expected to weaken due to approaching off-season and inventory nearing accumulation inflection point [1] - The demand for five major steel products is expected to continue its downward trend, with a decrease of 14,000 tons to 868 million tons [2] - Steel inventory is nearing the accumulation inflection point, with total inventory decreasing by 9,000 tons to 1,354 million tons, while plate materials have entered a clear accumulation phase [2] Group 2: Supply and Production - The production of steel is showing a high-level decline, with a slight decrease in molten iron output, while finished product reductions are significant [1] - The production of iron elements has increased by 15 million tons year-on-year from January to May, with an average daily increase of nearly 100,000 tons [1] - The current reduction in production is mainly reflected in rebar, while hot-rolled steel has not seen significant reductions [1] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The cost side shows that coking coal inventory continues to accumulate, with supply unlikely to shrink, leading to weak support for carbon element costs [1] - The current profitability ranking from high to low is: steel billet > hot-rolled > rebar > cold-rolled [1] - The price of rebar has fallen below both electric furnace and blast furnace cost lines, resulting in significant reductions in rebar production [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel price has shown signs of weakness after a brief rebound, with expectations of continued weak demand due to the suspension of national subsidies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. on steel appliances [3] - The strategy for the week includes holding short positions on hot-rolled and rebar, with attention to whether previous lows of 3,000 and 2,900 can be broken [4]

研究中心能化团队 2025/06/09 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/3 0 801 2265 2283 2350 2510 2300 2495 256 320 32 35 -849 2025/06/0 3 801 2288 2290 2350 2520 2300 2463 260 320 35 60 -891 2025/06/0 4 801 2312 2308 2340 2500 2320 2475 261 320 51 45 -962 2025/06/0 5 801 2317 2300 2345 2500 2320 2493 262 320 38 42 -966 2025/06/0 6 801 2322 2313 2350 2500 2320 2493 262 320 36 40 -967 日度变化 0 5 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 甲醇聚烯烃早报 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/06 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/2 9 801 2245 2278 2353 2510 2300 2495 256 327 23 15 -836 2025/05/3 0 801 2265 2283 2350 2510 2300 2495 256 320 32 35 -849 2025/06/0 3 801 2288 2290 2350 2520 2300 2463 260 320 35 60 -891 2025/06/0 4 801 2312 2308 2340 2500 2320 2475 261 320 51 45 -962 2025/06/0 5 801 2317 2300 2345 2500 2320 2493 261 320 51 42 -966 日度变化 0 5 -8 5 0 0 18 0 0 0 -3 -4 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 6 月 4 日辽宁现货 13.9-14.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.1- 14.5 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.1-14.3 元/公斤，较上一日 稳定；广东 15.2-15.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格北 跌南稳。6 月生猪出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，随着气温升高和院校 放假，季节性需求淡季显现，且屠企加工利润仍亏损，整体消费难有好的表 现，在供强需弱格局下，猪价仍有下跌风险，不过二次育肥和冻品库存低位 进场积极性仍存，限制猪价跌幅，整体维持震荡调整，关注企业出栏节奏、 二育和冻品入库、体重变化。中长期来看，虽然近期行业会议让产业降能 繁、降体重、不让继续二育，受此影响远月期价上涨，但能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，6-9 月供应呈增 加态势，且 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能虽有所去化，不过行业有利润， 去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上限，四季度供应压力仍大，远期价格反弹承 压。策略上，盘面贴水提前兑现弱势预期，估值偏低，短期低位震荡。07 压力位 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [3]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In 2025, new devices pose significant pressure, and attention should be paid to their commissioning [8]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are accumulating. The basis is +10, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 05 contract faces pressure, which can be relieved by export growth or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [8]. - For PVC, the basis is strengthening. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and factors like exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801. The daily changes in江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 were 0, 20, 5, - 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9, 20, - 13 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,东北亚乙烯 remained at 780. The daily changes in华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, LL美湾,进口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 65, 30, - 2, 0 respectively [8]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,山东丙烯 and东北亚丙烯 remained stable in some cases. The daily changes in华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 43, 20, - 2, - 133 respectively [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,西北电石 decreased from 2450 to 2350,山东烧碱 increased from 867 to 885. The daily change in基差(高端交割品) was 10 [11][12].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/2 3 801 2302 2303 2460 2600 2460 2630 256 327 70 50 -818 2025/05/2 6 801 2285 2300 2410 2565 2460 2525 256 327 58 40 -843 2025/05/2 7 801 2250 2275 2390 2520 2325 2505 254 327 39 40 -828 2025/05/2 8 801 2255 2275 2355 2520 2300 2500 255 327 29 25 -825 2025/05/2 9 801 2245 2278 2353 2510 2300 2495 255 327 32 15 -836 日度变化 0 -10 3 -2 -10 0 -5 0 0 3 -10 -11 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非伊增量，国内供应增 加，总体来说处于利 空兑 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/28 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/05/2 1 | 801 | 2330 | 2350 | 2490 | 2600 | 2460 | 2638 | 260 | 332 | 75 | 40 | -856 | | 2025/05/2 2 | 801 | 2315 | 2315 | 2470 | 2600 | 2460 | 2630 | 258 | 328 | 71 | 45 | -822 | | 2025/05/2 3 | 801 | 2302 | 2303 | 2460 | 2600 | ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 05 月 11 日 生猪：近端矛盾仍在累积，等待方向 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao023978@gtjas.com | 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（5.5-5.11） 现货市场，生猪价格偏强震荡。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 45 元/公斤（上周 45 元/公斤），本周河南生猪 价格 15 元/公斤（上周 14.85 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1631 元/头（上周 1635 元/头）。供应 端，5 月集团仍未见主动抛售降重意愿，散户存在惜售情绪；需求端，冻鲜价差持续支撑常规需求，二次 育肥采购需求较节前减弱。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 126.51KG（上周 126.28KG），出 栏均重环比上升 0.18%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格震荡调整。本周生猪期货 LH2509 合约最高价为 14035 元/吨，最低价为 13820 元/吨，收盘价为 13925 元/吨 ...