1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Core Conclusions - The U.S. government shutdown has ended after 43 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history, following the signing of a temporary funding bill by President Trump [1] - The release of significant liquidity from the Treasury General Account (TGA), which had accumulated nearly $1 trillion during the shutdown, is expected to ease global liquidity constraints [2] - The resumption of employment data disclosures, including non-farm payrolls, is likely to reignite expectations for interest rate cuts, as the labor market may show signs of weakness due to the shutdown's impact [3] - With the U.S. government reopening and a shift towards looser dollar liquidity, a rebound in risk assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, is anticipated [4] - A strategic asset allocation favoring Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, Hang Seng Technology, and gold is recommended, as broader asset classes are expected to benefit from the easing liquidity conditions [5] Global Major Asset Changes - Domestic CPI and PPI have unexpectedly improved, reinforcing inflation expectations, with CPI turning positive at 0.2% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.1% [16][18] - October exports unexpectedly turned negative year-on-year, influenced by high base effects, while exports to the U.S. increased, indicating resilience in trade with emerging markets [17] - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has led to liquidity tightening, impacting various asset classes, but this is expected to improve with the government's reopening [21] - The ADP employment data showed unexpected improvement, suggesting a potential increase in labor supply due to the shutdown's effects on government employees [25] - The Federal Reserve officials are leaning towards a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts, with limited future rate reductions anticipated [29] Recent Major Asset Review - Domestic stock markets experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% while the CSI 300 fell by 0.66% [33] - U.S. and European stock markets saw declines due to the government shutdown and tightening liquidity, with the Nasdaq dropping by 3.04% [35] - U.S. Treasury yields increased amid uncertainties regarding interest rate cuts, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.10% [37] - Commodity prices fell, with WTI crude oil and Brent oil prices decreasing by 2.02% and 1.76%, respectively, due to concerns over demand [40] - The U.S. dollar index fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 0.20%, while the onshore and offshore RMB experienced slight depreciation [42]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, easing geopolitical tensions, tightening dollar liquidity, and profit-taking by long positions. Gold prices have rebounded as market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December increase, stabilizing investment demand [2][11]. Group 1: U.S. Government Shutdown and Dollar Liquidity - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant selling pressure on gold, with COMEX gold futures dropping below $4000 per ounce, reaching a low of $3901.3 per ounce [2]. - The Federal Reserve's announcement to halt balance sheet reduction in December is expected to alleviate the low reserve issue in the U.S. banking system, where bank reserves fell below the "ample liquidity" threshold of $3.1 trillion, reaching $2.85 trillion by November 5 [3]. - The U.S. Congress passed a temporary funding bill on November 9, which is expected to end the government shutdown and reduce the fiscal liquidity siphoning effect [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Rate Cut Expectations - Economic indicators suggest a slowdown, with October's job cuts reaching the highest level for that month in nearly 20 years, increasing by 175.3% year-over-year [5]. - October's inflation data showed a mild increase, with the CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month, which is below market expectations and previous months, reinforcing the market's anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut [5][6]. - The Supreme Court's ruling on IEEPA tariffs may exacerbate the U.S. debt issue, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Central bank gold purchases are on the rise, with a reported 220 tons bought in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, reversing earlier declines [7]. - Global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons in Q3 2025, with total demand valued at $146 billion, driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, which saw a historic high of $26 billion [7][8]. - The SPDR gold ETF's holdings rebounded to 1042.06 tons by November 10, after a drop to 1036.05 tons in late October due to selling pressure [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - The easing of dollar liquidity concerns and the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut have shifted the macro narrative towards optimism, reducing the selling pressure on gold [11]. - Investors are advised to monitor COMEX gold options to hedge against increased volatility, with trading volumes reaching a historical high of 175,000 contracts [11].

新华财经北京11月13日电（吴郑思）11月12日，贵金属价格再度大幅飙升。其中银价单日大涨超4%， 盘中高点逼近历史新高。 在市场分析人士看来，随着美联储宽松的货币政策预计将继续下去，贵金属的实物买盘需求保持稳定， 黄金和白银的基本面仍然强劲。"除非发生任何重大变化，否则这两种金属未来几周内都可能走 高。"Solomon Global市场分析师表示。 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价当日上涨68.2美元，收于每盎司4201.4 美元，涨幅为1.65%。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格上涨215.5美分，收于每盎司53.230美元，涨幅为4.22%。盘中银价一度触 及53.625美元，距离此前创下的53.765美元高点仅一步之遥。 在此背景下，指标10年期美债收益率跌至11月5日以来最低水平，则进一步强化了12日当天贵金属的涨 势。 另外，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克12日突然宣布，将于2026年2月28日任期届满时退休，届时他距 美联储强制退休年龄尚有五年有余。由于博斯蒂克在货币政策上的立场倾向"鹰派"，此举也增强了市场 对美联储加速鸽派转向的猜测。 正是在上述基本面逻辑支持下，即 ...

1. Report Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and large - scale assets lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so large - scale assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors make a balanced allocation in large - scale assets in the fourth quarter, hold long positions, and pay attention to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. In case of a certain correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is more on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there seems to be a short - term tight situation in US dollar liquidity, it will not have a significant impact on the prices of large - scale assets. There are two factors for the improvement of US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work, which can relieve the short - term pressure on US dollar liquidity to a certain extent [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth year - on - year was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more optimistic information was seen in the inflation data for October. In addition, there is a possibility that the consumption data for October may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: As mentioned above, large - scale assets may enter a shock period in the short term, but the overall fourth - quarter allocation idea remains unchanged, and the macro environment is favorable for risk assets [7]. 3.2 Viewpoints Summary 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. However, there is a problem of crowded funds in small - and micro - cap stocks. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined, and the liquidity of the options market may be lower than expected. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Key points to watch include policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Key points to watch include the performance of the US fundamentals, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and the trend of the global equity market. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is pressure on loading, lacking upward drivers. Key points to watch include the rate of freight decline in September. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season of demand, the market is under pressure, and the price on the disk has fallen from a high level. Key points to watch include the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, and hot metal production. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation has been released in advance, and the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. Key points to watch include the production and shipment of overseas mines, domestic hot metal production, weather factors, changes in ore inventory at ports, and policy dynamics. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is being proposed. Key points to watch include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic supply is difficult to increase, and the sentiment in the spot market remains strong. Key points to watch include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost support remains strong, but the supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure. Key points to watch include raw material costs and steel procurement situations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support still exists, but there is pressure on the upper side of the disk. Key points to watch include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Glass**: Production cuts in Shahe have been implemented, but demand remains weak. Key points to watch include spot production and sales. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has strengthened, and light soda ash has shown a short - term recovery. Key points to watch include soda ash inventory. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price has adjusted in the short term. Key points to watch include supply disruptions, better - than - expected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Federal Reserve, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Alumina**: The fundamental situation is still one of over - supply, and the alumina price is under pressure and in a shock state. Key points to watch include less - than - expected ore复产, better - than - expected electrolytic aluminum复产, and extreme market trends. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Aluminum**: There is a linkage between stocks and futures, and the aluminum price is rising in a shock manner. Key points to watch include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window has opened, and the zinc price is in a high - level shock state. Key points to watch include macro - turning risks and better - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory has slightly increased, and the lead price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless steel market on the disk is in a shock state. Key points to watch include Indonesian policy risks and better - than - expected demand growth. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decline, and the tin price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include unexpected production cuts on the supply side and better - than - expected photovoltaic installations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The expected复产 is uncertain, and attention should be paid to significant price fluctuations. Key points to watch include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving factors, and the market continues to be in a shock state. Key points to watch include OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **LPG**: The external release of refineries has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Key points to watch include the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price has fallen, and the asphalt futures price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is in a weak shock state. Key points to watch include geopolitical factors and crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and low - sulfur fuel oil may show a strong - upward shock trend. Key points to watch include crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend [10]. - **Methanol**: The high - inventory reality suppresses the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include macro - energy and overseas dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Export information has boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions have become more cautious. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include the implementation of export quotas and the coal price market [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a game between downward supply - demand and cost support. The short - term market is in a low - level range and under obvious upward pressure. Key points to watch include fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **PX**: There are rumors of some factories reducing the load of disproportionation, which has affected market sentiment. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and macro - abnormalities [10]. - **PTA**: Driven by the upstream, the price center has moved up, and there is no unexpected reduction in supply. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and macro - abnormalities [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The cost is strong, but demand is weak, and processing fees are under pressure. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: It follows the raw material price increase passively. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and new device commissioning situations [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the market is in a shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices and the domestic macro - situation. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **PP**: The production volume remains at a relatively high level, and the market is in a shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Plastic**: The downstream transactions have increased, but the support from maintenance is limited, and the market is in a shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the styrene market is in a weak shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the market, and the PVC market is in a weak shock state. Key points to watch include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market is in a low - valuation and weak - expectation state, and the caustic soda price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The far - month contracts have made up for the increase, and the monthly spread has narrowed. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include weather, domestic demand, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Downstream procurement and upstream hoarding have led to an upward breakthrough in futures prices. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: The monthly slaughter volume is sufficient, and the pig price is running at a low level. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: It has rebounded slightly following the macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has temporarily stabilized, but the raw material pressure is still relatively large. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - **Cotton**: The price is fluctuating in a narrow range and in a shock state. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: It has rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The futures market has driven the spot market, and the market is dominated by disk funds. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Supported by tenders, the market has stabilized. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up dynamics [10]. - **Logs**: Domestic timber has been delivered successively, and the log market on the disk is running at a low level. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

11月10日午后，贵金属市场大幅拉升走高，黄金期现涨幅均超过2%，白银期货涨幅一度超过4%，其他贵金属 亦不同程度走高。截至发稿，伦敦金现涨2.51%，报4101.06美元/盎司；COMEX黄金涨2.59%，报4113.5美元/ 盎司；伦敦银现涨3.5%，报50.018美元/盎司，COMEX白银涨3.99%，报50.065美元/盎司；现货铂金涨2.59%， NYMEX铂涨2.79%；现货钯金涨3.14%，NYMEX钯涨2.27%。 金价拉升。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 4101.060 | 100.350 | 2.51% | | 伦敦银现 | 50.018 | 1.692 | 3.50% | | COMEX黄金 | 4113.5 d | 103.7 | 2.59% | | COMEX白银 | 50.065 d | 1.922 | 3.99% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 938.6415 | 22.9679 | 2.51% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 11448.0088 | 387.2612 | 3.50% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the overall market showed a trend of falling first and then rising. Except for the CSI 500 Index, most major indices closed higher, with the SSE 50 Index leading the gains with a weekly increase of 0.89%. The power equipment and coal sectors performed well, with weekly increases of 4.98% and 4.52% respectively, while the computer sector was weak with a weekly decline of about 2.54%. The market focus was on the US dollar liquidity issue. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, there were signs of marginal tightening of US dollar liquidity, putting pressure on US stocks. On Friday, news of the end of the US government shutdown improved market risk appetite, driving a rebound in US stocks and a decline in the US dollar. The impact of US dollar liquidity shocks on the domestic market was limited, and Chinese asset prices showed resilience. The short - term external disturbances had limited impact on the domestic market, and it is expected that the domestic market will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the medium term. Continue to monitor subsequent changes in US dollar liquidity and domestic policy signals [1]. - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options generally declined. The IV of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index options (IV = 32%) and ChiNext Index options (IV = 28%) has been falling since September but remains at a relatively high level above the median of the past year. The IV of 50 and 300 options is currently in the range of 12% - 14%, and the IV of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options is about 18%. The position PCR of most financial options is in the range of 75% - 110%, slightly higher than the previous week [2]. - The market may continue to show a relatively strong oscillating pattern, and the IV of most options varieties continues to decline. The impact of factors such as US dollar liquidity on domestic asset prices is limited. It is expected that the market may continue to oscillate strongly, and sectors such as power equipment will perform relatively strongly. The current domestic liquidity environment remains positive, and inflation data has stabilized and rebounded. One can continue to hold indices with relatively reasonable valuations, such as the SSE 300 and CSI A500. Since the current option IV has declined, one can also buy out - of - the - money call options with a long - term maturity on the corresponding indices. For the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index, which has experienced large fluctuations recently and still has a relatively high static valuation, if one holds the underlying asset, one can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risk. If one has accumulated a large amount of spot gains, one can also consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options to cope with the irrational rise of the market, such as the ChiNext Index. The CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures still have a high discount, and one can consider continuing to hold the covered call strategy of buying the index futures and selling out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - The overall market last week showed a trend of falling first and then rising. Most major indices closed higher, with the SSE 50 Index leading the gains. The power equipment and coal sectors performed well, while the computer sector was weak. The market focused on US dollar liquidity. After the Fed's meeting, US dollar liquidity tightened marginally, affecting US stocks. The end of the US government shutdown improved market sentiment. The impact on the domestic market was limited, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. 3.2 Options Market - The IV of various financial options generally declined last week. The IV of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index and ChiNext Index options has been falling but remains high. The IV of 50 and 300 options is in the 12% - 14% range, and that of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options is about 18%. The position PCR of most financial options is in the 75% - 110% range and slightly increased [2]. 3.3 Strategy Outlook - The market may continue to oscillate strongly, and the IV of most options varieties continues to decline. Hold indices with reasonable valuations and consider buying long - term out - of - the - money call options. For high - volatility indices, manage risk through option strategies. Consider the covered call strategy for CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures [3]. 3.4 Market Data of Each Index - Detailed data on the closing prices, price changes, IV, IV changes, historical quantiles, option trading volumes, and position PCR of various indices such as the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext Index, Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index, and Shenzhen 100 Index are provided [5]. - Data on the price, IV, and related quantiles of each index over different time periods (recently, in the past year, and in the past three years) are presented, along with the IV term structure, intraday IV trends, and option smile curves of each index [8][19][27][34][43][48][52][64][70][77][86][93].

Core Viewpoint - The report discusses the factors influencing oil prices, including geopolitical tensions, OPEC production decisions, and global economic conditions, predicting fluctuations in oil prices between $50 and $70 per barrel in Q4 2025, with a potential drop to $40 in 2026 [16][11][8]. Oil Price Influencing Factors - Geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production cuts have supported oil prices, while U.S. shale production and global demand fluctuations have created volatility [8][11]. - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with further increases planned for December [28][16]. - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory as of October 24, 2025, was 416 million barrels, down 9.54 million barrels year-on-year, and 5.91% lower than the five-year average [17][24]. Global Oil Supply and Demand - Global oil demand is projected to grow, with the EIA forecasting an increase of 300,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 240,000 barrels per day in 2026 [7][16]. - The IEA predicts a similar growth trajectory for global oil and liquid production, with increases of 270,000 and 130,000 barrels per day respectively [7][16]. - China's industrial crude oil processing volume increased by 6.8% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a recovery in demand [24]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was approximately 4.11% as of October 31, 2025, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [16][34]. - The manufacturing PMI in China for October 2025 was reported at 49.0%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [47]. Inventory and Production Insights - As of October 31, 2025, the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. was 546, a decrease of 39 rigs year-on-year, with production remaining stable at 13.64 million barrels per day [24][17]. - Global oil inventories are expected to increase, with a projected average growth of 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 [16]. Price Predictions and Market Outlook - The Brent crude oil price is expected to average $69 per barrel in 2025, with a decline to $52 per barrel in 2026 [16][7]. - The report highlights the potential for oil prices to test lower levels due to increasing supply and geopolitical uncertainties [16][11].