Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recovery of global risk appetite and stock market increases are primarily driven by the loosening of dollar liquidity, with potential risks arising from changes in Federal Reserve policies or cross-border capital flows [2][4] - The article discusses the phenomenon of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading, which has led to increased confidence among investors and a bullish atmosphere in various global markets, including US, European, and Asian stocks [4][5] Group 2 - The improvement in global risk appetite is attributed to the loosening of dollar liquidity, which is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and cross-border capital flows [5][6] - The dollar index has significantly declined, dropping 2.4% in the past quarter and 10% year-to-date, which has positively impacted non-US stock markets [7][9] - The actual interest rates of US Treasury bonds have decreased, providing a foundation for risk sentiment release, with a decline of over 20 basis points since April [9][11] - Global central banks have accelerated monetary supply, with a notable increase in the growth rate of global central bank money supply by nearly 7 percentage points in the past quarter [11][14] - The cost of offshore dollar financing has decreased, indicating a more favorable liquidity environment for non-US equity markets [14][16] Group 3 - There is a noticeable trend of foreign capital inflow into non-US equity markets, with A-shares seeing a 0.75% increase in foreign ownership value compared to the end of last year [16][19] - Various Asian markets, including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, have experienced net inflows of foreign capital since July, contrasting with the previous 12 months of net outflows [19][20] Group 4 - The article highlights concerns regarding the effectiveness of capital expenditures by technology giants amid the current AI boom, with an average capital expenditure growth rate of 18% projected for tech stocks from 2021 to 2024 [20][22] - The current market structure shows a "barbell" effect, with significant gains in both large tech companies and small-cap stocks, indicating a potential increase in market fragility [22][26] Group 5 - The "Buffett Indicator," which measures the ratio of total market capitalization to nominal GDP, has reached a historical high of 2.1, suggesting a potential overvaluation of the market [26][28] - Comparisons of risk premiums across global indices reveal that US and Indian stocks have low risk premiums, while A-shares and Korean stocks maintain higher levels [31][34] - The article concludes that the high valuation levels across major stock indices, combined with the low risk premiums in developed markets, indicate a potential bubble in the current market environment [39]

Group 1: Market Trends and Drivers - Recent global market risk appetite has significantly improved, with many developed and emerging market indices reaching new highs, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks entering a bull market atmosphere[2] - The decline of the US dollar index by 10% this year has notably boosted non-US stock markets[2] - The actual yield on US Treasury bonds has decreased, alleviating valuation pressure on global assets[2] - Global central banks have accelerated monetary supply growth, with 76 rate cuts this year compared to only 19 rate hikes, particularly benefiting non-US markets[2] Group 2: Valuation Concerns - The "Buffett Indicator" (total market capitalization/GDP) for US stocks has reached a historical high of 2.1, approximately 2.9 standard deviations above the long-term average, indicating potential overvaluation[3] - The capital expenditure growth rate for tech giants is projected at 18% from 2021 to 2024, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth and potential valuation corrections[3] - The current valuation levels of major markets show that US, Indian, Vietnamese, and German stocks are at absolute highs, while risk premiums for Indian, US, and Vietnamese stocks are relatively low[4] Group 3: Market Sensitivities and Risks - The high non-fundamental premium in markets like A-shares and German stocks suggests increased sensitivity to potential reversals in dollar liquidity or changes in capital flows[4] - If the Federal Reserve's policies or cross-border capital flows change, markets with high non-fundamental premiums may be more vulnerable to corrections[4] - The report highlights the potential for a "shrinking circle" effect in global markets if risk appetite declines, particularly affecting markets with high non-fundamental premiums[4]

Macroeconomy - Despite a slowdown in economic growth and low inflation in Q2, A-shares have experienced a rapid rise, likened to a "water buffalo" in the context of financial cycles [4] - The current economic indicators in China are still in need of improvement, but several factors support the stock market performance, suggesting a shift from traditional economic cycle perspectives to financial cycle perspectives may provide better insights [4] - Policies aimed at addressing debt issues are crucial during a financial cycle downturn, as they can enhance balance sheets and boost economic vitality, which is significant for capital markets [4] Strategy - Tariffs have contributed to a partial rebound in U.S. inflation, with seasonal adjustment methods underestimating inflation by nearly 20 basis points over the past two months; CPI readings may not yet reflect the true inflation rebound [6] - A turning point in CPI is anticipated within the next 1-2 months, with a potential confirmation date around August 12, and the CPI year-on-year upturn may last for about a year [6] - The low risk premium in U.S. equities is primarily due to rising real returns and investor enthusiasm for U.S. stocks amid a global "asset shortage"; adjustments in risk-free rates suggest there is still slight room for recovery in the risk premium [8] Macroeconomy - The central rate of interest in China has significant downward potential, but the rapid decline in the 10-year government bond yield over the past three years may not continue; short-term policy rate cuts may face limitations around 1% [10] - The 10-year government bond yield's term premium is unlikely to fall below 0.2%, indicating that other policy measures, such as fiscal expansion and central bank balance sheet expansion, may be more effective in stimulating growth [10] Macroeconomy - The U.S. dollar index has rebounded during a depreciation cycle, but this trend halted following the release of July's non-farm payroll data, leading to significant market fluctuations [12] - The U.S. economy appears to have bottomed out in June and showed signs of improvement in July, with a debt issuance wave beginning to absorb dollar liquidity [12] - Looking ahead, the impact of tariffs on inflation may become more apparent, and tightening dollar liquidity could negatively affect U.S. stock performance in August and September, with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially rising to around 4.8% [12]

智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，7月以来，美元指数在贬值周期中出现反弹行情，但随着7月非农数据的出炉戛然而止，全球市 场亦随之大幅震荡。该行认为，上半年政策冲击下，美国经济已经在6月触底，并在7月有改善迹象。债务发行潮也已经在7月开启，正在逐 渐吸收美元流动性。往前看，关税对通胀的影响可能开始逐渐显露，叠加美元流动性收紧，可能在8-9月间不利于美股表现，10年期美债利 率也可能快速触底并逐步上行至4.8%附近。但从全年或更长期的角度来看，随着财政对货币干预越发明显，美元流动性的再度宽松可能是 大势所趋，叠加财政对基本面的托底，该行认为风险资产长期来看仍具潜力，美元下行周期也将持续。 中金公司主要观点如下： 从美元指数看资金流、基本面与美元流动性 美元指数的涨跌，可以反映跨国资金流、基本面和美元流动性等多方面因素。 从长期的视角来看，美元指数强弱反映了美元资产的配置需求。过去两年，美元指数持续在美国财政、贸易双赤字走阔的背景下维持强 势，反映的是美股AI信仰下跨国资金持续流入美国的影响，而今年4月对等关税冲击带来的市场恐慌，整体拉低了美元指数的震荡区间，这 反映了资金在美国和其他市场间的再平衡正在发生。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. economy hit a bottom in June and showed signs of improvement in July, following policy shocks in the first half of the year [1] - A wave of debt issuance began in July, gradually absorbing U.S. dollar liquidity [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may start to become evident, and combined with tightening dollar liquidity, this could negatively affect U.S. stock performance in August and September [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may quickly bottom out and gradually rise to around 4.8% [1] - From a longer-term perspective, increased fiscal intervention alongside monetary policy may lead to a resumption of dollar liquidity easing, supporting the potential of risk assets [1] - The downward cycle of the dollar is expected to continue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in the US economy and the impact of various factors such as monetary policy, fiscal measures, and international trade on market performance, suggesting that while there may be short-term adjustments, the long-term outlook for risk assets remains positive due to potential liquidity easing and fiscal support [2][18][25]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The US economy is believed to have bottomed out in June and showed signs of improvement in July, with a debt issuance wave beginning in July to absorb dollar liquidity [2][18]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to gradually manifest, potentially affecting US stock performance negatively in August and September [2][18]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to quickly bottom out and rise to around 4.8% [2][18]. Group 2: Dollar Index and Liquidity - The dollar index reflects cross-border capital flows, fundamentals, and dollar liquidity, maintaining strength despite the US's fiscal and trade deficits due to ongoing capital inflows driven by AI investments [3][4]. - Following a structural depreciation in April, the dollar index has shown a recovery since May, correlating with the decline in the US-German yield spread [7][9]. - A significant increase in net debt issuance occurred in July, totaling $308.3 billion, compared to only $104.9 billion from April to June [13][15]. Group 3: Inflation and Fiscal Policy - The risk of inflation is increasing as the impact of tariffs on import costs becomes more apparent, alongside strong wage growth and low inflation base effects [18][20]. - The Treasury is expected to issue $1 trillion in net debt from July to September, with long-term debt issuance reaching $470 billion, which may lead to financial risks and market volatility [22][24]. - The potential for a "new accord" between fiscal and monetary policy could lead to renewed dollar liquidity and improved performance of risk assets in the long term [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's meeting signaled policy divergence, making the short - term interest - rate cut path uncertain. After the weak non - farm employment data on August 1st, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased, with the probability of a 25bp cut exceeding 85%. The overall labor market showed structural weakness, and after the data release, the US Treasury yields declined across the board [12]. - The US Treasury maintains a stable long - and medium - term bond issuance rhythm, but the increase in the proportion of short - term bonds has a greater impact on liquidity. The market sentiment swings between "economic recession" and "policy game", and the short - term volatility of US Treasury assets has increased. It is expected that the US Treasury market will face intensified fluctuations around September [13][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. US Treasury Yield Review - As of August 1st, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 21bp in two weeks, falling to 4.23%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year yield decreased by 19bp, and the 30 - year yield dropped 19bp [5]. 2. US Treasury Market Changes - In actual bond issuance, the duration of US Treasury issuance declined slightly in late July, with 68.44 billion for 2 - year, 69.88 billion for 5 - year, and 43.92 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US had a fiscal surplus of 27.01 billion dollars in June, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to 1.90 trillion dollars [5]. 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures decreased slightly. As of July 29th, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers rose to 5.681 million lots. The federal funds rate futures market shifted from a net long to a net short position of - 0.13 million lots, reflecting an increased demand for hedging against the expected decline in interest rates [5]. 4. US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy - **Monetary Policy**: In July 2025, the Fed kept the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations. The policy statement recognized a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, and there was a divergence of opinions within the Fed, with two governors advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut being rejected [6]. - **Fiscal Policy**: As of July 30th, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance increased by 107.361 billion dollars in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool contracted by 49 billion dollars in two weeks, leading to uncertainty in the short - term liquidity buffer space [6]. - **Economic Situation**: As of July 26th, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.56 (2.34 two weeks ago), indicating a short - term improvement in the economy after stability [6]. 5. US Treasury Yield Trends - The Fed's meeting signaled policy divergence, and the short - term rate - cut path is uncertain. After the weak non - farm employment data on August 1st, the market's expectation of a September rate cut increased, and the US Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 2 - year yield dropping 25bp in a single day [12]. 6. US Treasury Issuance Policy - The US Treasury maintains a stable long - and medium - term bond issuance rhythm but increases the proportion of short - term bonds. The new refinancing plan is 125 billion dollars, with an increase in short - term Treasury issuance and a decrease in long - and medium - term bonds. Relying more on short - term debt financing may increase fiscal financing volatility and weaken the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [13].

Group 1: Dollar Index - The possibility of Trump firing Powell has decreased, alleviating pressure on the dollar [7] - The U.S. Treasury's TGA financing is accelerating, leading to tightening liquidity which may support the dollar [9] - The dollar index has potential for further rebound, with a first target around 101 [12] Group 2: Euro - The euro is experiencing weakness due to a divergence in economic fundamentals between the U.S. and the Eurozone [19][21] - A recent trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU has temporarily avoided a large-scale trade dispute, but the 15% tariff still poses risks [21] - The euro's effective exchange rate has reached a level that could negatively impact Eurozone export growth [21][23] Group 3: Pound Sterling - The UK economic surprise index has entered a downward cycle, increasing rate cut expectations and pressuring the pound against the euro [33] - The UK public sector net borrowing in June was £20.7 billion, exceeding expectations [37] - The Bank of England is likely to maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts due to conflicting economic signals [38] Group 4: Japanese Yen - The yen has depreciated significantly, driven by a reduction in long positions [47] - Expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased following a trade agreement with the U.S. [47] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with the yen's depreciation expected to continue until a rate hike is confirmed [47]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. Currently, the market has digested the impact of the tariff issue. The US - EU tariff problem remains intense, and there are positive signals from trade agreements after the visit to Japan. The market shows no concern about the potential dollar liquidity pressure from Powell's situation and US fiscal debt issuance. With stable external macro - liquidity, the market has strong expectations for China's "expanding domestic demand" and "anti - involution" policies, and the short - term risk preference is expected to remain oscillating strongly, waiting for clearer macro - policies [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 1.33% last week. Agricultural products and precious metals had larger increases of 1.44% and 1.29% respectively, while black, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous metals rose 1.06%, 0.69%, and 0.37% respectively. The inflow of funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][5] - **Individual Varieties**: Among individual varieties, crude oil, rapeseed meal, and industrial silicon had the highest increases of 3.52%, 3.38%, and 3.33% respectively. LPG, urea, and lead had larger declines of 2.48%, 1.58%, and 1.49% respectively [1][5] 3.2 Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals**: The market continued its strong trend, with silver performing prominently. Silver futures rose more than gold due to the dollar's decline, increased macro - easing expectations, and the improvement of industrial products' prices boosting silver's industrial attributes. Gold maintained a high - level oscillation supported by safe - haven demand and weak inflation data, benefiting from the continuous expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: They continued the oscillating and strengthening pattern. Main varieties like copper and aluminum rebounded slightly due to low inventory and overseas supply disruptions. The demand for non - ferrous metals is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, and the electrolytic copper market still has medium - term support [2] - **Black Metals**: Steel prices rebounded significantly under cost support and production - limit rumors. Iron ore and coking coal prices also strengthened. The market's pessimistic sentiment about steel fundamentals has eased, although the actual terminal demand still needs further observation [2] - **Energy**: Crude oil prices rose slightly, supported by geopolitical tensions (especially in the Middle East) and the demand during the summer travel season. Concerns about global supply tightening and the decline in US crude oil inventories further promoted the stabilization and recovery of oil prices. Domestic energy varieties such as fuel oil and crude oil futures continued to rebound [3] - **Chemicals**: The market was generally firm, and some varieties continued to recover. The stabilization of crude oil at the cost end drove the sentiment of the entire chemical industry to improve. Products like PVC and PTA benefited from downstream replenishment and the decline in industry operating rates, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not fully improved, and short - term price fluctuations are still uncertain [3] - **Agricultural Products**: They rose slightly this week. Rapeseed meal rebounded due to the relief of import pressure and the decline in domestic oil mill operations. The oil and fat sector oscillated at a high level under international market influence. Corn and wheat stopped falling and rebounded due to the relief of inventory pressure and weather speculation. Policy support for food security and planting structure adjustment will continue to affect the market [3] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with an average return of around 0.4%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 1,549.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.82%. The total trading volume decreased by 34.33% [34] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a return of 0.39%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 2.43%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of - 0.45%, and the silver fund had a return of 1.81%. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 1,617.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.59%, and the total trading volume decreased by 16.30% [34]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the U.S. economy, U.S. stock market, U.S. Treasury bonds, emerging markets, Hong Kong stocks, gaming sector, humanoid robotics, and the photovoltaic (solar) industry Core Insights and Arguments Economic and Market Impacts - The "Great Beauty" Act is expected to stimulate the U.S. economy and boost the stock market in the short term, but may lead to higher long-term Treasury yields, putting pressure on U.S. bonds [1][2] - A weaker dollar could enhance the attractiveness of emerging markets, benefiting assets like Hong Kong stocks, but this effect is influenced by various macroeconomic factors and policy changes [1][2] - The market is becoming desensitized to tariff policies, viewing them primarily as a means to increase fiscal revenue without significant increases expected [1][3][4] Sector-Specific Insights - The gaming sector is anticipated to grow with the integration of AI technology, while humanoid robotics represents a significant future technology direction with substantial potential [1][6] - The photovoltaic industry is facing severe supply-demand imbalances and overcapacity, leading to significant price declines across the industry chain [1][23] - Government interventions and industry self-regulation in the photovoltaic sector have had limited effects, necessitating stronger measures to combat excessive competition [1][24] Trends and Future Outlook - The gaming industry has seen improved policy support, with a faster pace of license approvals, which stabilizes corporate confidence and enhances product development planning [3][37][38] - The humanoid robotics sector is witnessing key trends such as the opening of Huawei's cloud ecosystem and advancements in domestic companies, indicating a robust growth trajectory [32][33] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a decline in demand growth rates due to high base effects, despite a significant increase in global installation capacity [23] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The "de-dollarization" trend presents uncertainties, and a weaker dollar does not necessarily correlate with a weak U.S. stock market; rather, it can improve financial conditions and increase overseas revenue [5] - The gaming sector's valuation has recovered, with current TTM PE at approximately 30 times, down from 45 times during the AI boom in 2023, indicating a more favorable investment environment [41] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant price drop of 70% to 90% across the supply chain since 2022, with no signs of companies exiting the market, highlighting the need for government intervention [23][24][29]