Group 1 - Amazon's stock price has fallen for nine consecutive days, entering a technical bear market, becoming the second member of the "Magnificent Seven" (Mag7) to do so, following Microsoft [1][2] - The total market capitalization of the Mag7 has decreased by approximately $1.51 trillion (about 10.4 trillion yuan) this year [3] - Microsoft was the first Mag7 member to enter a bear market, with its stock price down 27.8% from recent highs as of Friday's close [2][3] Group 2 - UBS and Goldman Sachs have significantly reduced their holdings in several major U.S. tech stocks, as indicated in their recent 13F filings with the SEC [1][5] - UBS reduced its stake in Nvidia by 10.57%, Microsoft by 7.64%, Apple by 10.57%, Amazon by 4.57%, and Google by 9.05% [5] - Goldman Sachs also reduced its holdings in Microsoft by 5.86%, Tesla by 8.27%, Broadcom by 9.33%, and Meta by 13.51% [5] Group 3 - The decline in the Mag7 stocks coincides with similar trends in the A-share market, indicating a potential shift in global investment styles [6] - Factors contributing to these changes include investor skepticism regarding the return on investment from AI spending by tech giants and a potential shift in global liquidity and macroeconomic conditions [7] - The U.S. short-term liquidity market is reportedly experiencing a significant contraction, with overnight reverse repos dropping to a very low level, indicating a tightening of liquidity [7]

美股风格大变局！ 今年以来，Mag7杀跌惨重。微软是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员，股价于1月29日跌入熊市。截至周五收盘，微软股价较近期高点下跌27.8%。Meta可能成为下一个跌 入熊市的Mag7成员，截至周五收盘，较去年高点累跌19.6%，距离熊市的20%跌幅门槛仅差0.4%。 据券商中国记者统计，今年以来，Mag7市值皆出现了显著收缩，总市值蒸发约1.51万亿美元。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 总市值1 | 总市值1 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [交易日期] 2026-2-14 [单位] 亿元 | [交易日期] 2025-12-31 [单位] 亿元 | | | 1 | MSFT.O | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 29,800.5346 | | 35,928.1298 | | 2 | AMZN.O | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 21.339.9492 | | 24.450.7626 | | 3 | NVDA.O | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 44,422.8300 | | 45,319.5000 | | ব | ...

图说大宗 证券研究报告 2026.02.08 图说大宗：宏观情绪与基本面共振，金 银铜波动加剧 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070006 SFC CE Ref：BBU524 chaohui.guo@cicc.com.cn 郭朝辉 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 陈雷 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524020004 lei.chen@cicc.com.cn 宏观回顾：国内内需仍偏弱，沃什难撼扩表 国内方面，1 月中采制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.3%，低于市场预期（Reuters 预测中值 50.0%；1 月非制造业商务活动指数环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.4%；综合 PMI 环比下降 0.9 个百分点至 49.8%，皆再度回到收缩区间。中金宏观组认为，季节性因素或对数据扰动较大，但除了季节性以外， 需求仍然弱于供给，两者缺口进一步扩大。结构上，消费品制造业和小型企业回落较多。制造业整体受 大宗商品价格上涨影响，原材料购进价格上升，但向下游传导能力仍受制于需求。建筑业受天气和季节 性因素影 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently pricing in hawkish expectations from Kevin Walsh, which may be overestimated, and further validation is needed from his actions and statements [2][24] - The domestic AI investment is still in its early stages, with significant differences in cycles compared to overseas investments, which are experiencing a surge in capital expenditure [2][22] - The micro liquidity environment in the domestic market remains favorable, and there are expectations for policy support, indicating a potential for a spring market rally [2][27] Group 2 - The long-term growth trend remains dominant, with expectations for continued outperformance in growth sectors, particularly in electronics, insurance, media, machinery, communication, chemicals, and real estate chains [3][30] - The current style switch is characterized as a small cycle level relative return convergence, with historical data indicating that such convergence typically lasts around 40 trading days [3][43] - The emotional cycle is currently in an upward phase, which supports a risk-on sentiment and a preference for growth investments [3][38] Group 3 - The recent global risk asset adjustments have shown resilience in the A-share market, despite pressures from tightening dollar liquidity and renewed concerns over AI narratives [10][22] - The anticipated spring market rally is expected to be supported by policy expectations and capital inflows, particularly in the period leading up to the National People's Congress [27][29] - The growth style is expected to outperform in the medium term, while the recent style switch is viewed as a tactical adjustment rather than a fundamental shift [24][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that A-shares should follow the rebound of external markets at the beginning of the week and further reduce positions [1] - The main board is recommended to maintain a medium-low position, while the small and medium-sized market segment should adopt a low position [1] - The overall market sentiment is described as balanced, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index experiencing declines of -1.27% and -1.33% respectively, while the CSI 500 Index fell by -2.68% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economic data shows increasing divergence, with the ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rising to 52.6, driven by new orders, while job vacancies continue to decline [2] - Global asset prices experienced significant fluctuations, particularly in dollar-denominated assets, influenced by expectations regarding the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh [2] - The domestic A-share market showed relative resilience despite external pressures, with the national team refraining from large-scale sell-offs during the recent downturn [2][3] Group 3 - The main board's market focus has shifted downwards, but the overall decline was limited due to a rebound in certain consumer and value sectors [3] - The small and medium-sized market segment demonstrated unexpected resilience, suggesting a cautious approach to participation in the anticipated rebound [3] - The recommendation is to maintain a low position after the short-term rebound, while closely monitoring the potential for a second round of declines in small-cap stocks [3]

来源：市场资讯 来源：中金点睛 中金研究 我们认为美联储短期或难"缩表"，但持续"扩表"与QE的门槛也明显上升。如果美联储不愿通过"扩表"支 持财政宽松，一个新的临时性货币-财政协同方式可能是美联储增加降息幅度，财政部增加短债发行， 首先推动金融去监管，然后再开启"缩表"进程。美联储最终降息幅度或超出市场预期，美元宽松交易可 能在短期回归。美债收益率曲线陡峭化叠加金融去监管，利好美国银行股票。美联储或将决定黄金牛市 的终点，但这一拐点尚未到来。中国股票与全球商品只是暂时承压，静待宽松预期回归。 文/中金大类资产研究：李昭，杨晓卿 沃什被提名为下届美联储主席，引发全球资产巨震。 特朗普上周意外提名沃什为下一届美联储主席。由于沃什主张"降息+缩表"，被市场视为鹰派，因此全 球资产发生剧烈震动，黄金与白银一度下跌20%与40%，港A股票与全球商品全线回调，美元走强。 图表1：特朗普提名沃什为下一届美联储主席后，黄金、股票、商品全线回调 资料来源：Wind，iFinD，中金公司研究部 过去一年时间，AI科技浪潮与美元流动性是全球市场两大主线。货币秩序重构，美元趋于贬值，推动 美元流动性宽松，是黄金与股票全线上涨、中国 ...

中金研究 我们认为美联储短期或难"缩表"，但持续"扩表"与QE的门槛也明显上升。如果美联储不愿通过"扩表"支 持财政宽松，一个新的临时性货币-财政协同方式可能是美联储增加降息幅度，财政部增加短债发行， 首先推动金融去监管，然后再开启"缩表"进程。美联储最终降息幅度或超出市场预期，美元宽松交易可 能在短期回归。美债收益率曲线陡峭化叠加金融去监管，利好美国银行股票。美联储或将决定黄金牛市 的终点，但这一拐点尚未到来。中国股票与全球商品只是暂时承压，静待宽松预期回归。 我们认为不宜将沃什过往政策立场线性外推为实际政策选择，而需同时考虑政治约束、经济约束与金融 约束，审慎评估沃什各项主张的可行性，推演未来政策着力点与实施顺序。我们的推演显示，新一届美 联储的政策路径可能比当前市场定价更加鸽派，美元流动性这一主线尚未被实质性动摇，美元宽松交易 或在短期回归，中长期市场趋势将待时间验证。 短期难以推进"缩表"，但QE与持续"扩表"的门槛也明显上升。 "降息+缩表"政策组合是沃什主张中最令人困惑的一点。沃什本人解释为缩表可以降低通胀，为降息打 开空间。但是从逻辑上讲，缩表作为紧缩性货币政策，其效果不仅与降息方向相反，也与特 ...

中金研究 我们认为美联储短期或难"缩表"，但持续"扩表"与QE的门槛也明显上升。如果美联储不愿通过"扩表"支持财政宽松，一个新的临时性货币-财政协同 方式可能是美联储增加降息幅度，财政部增加短债发行，首先推动金融去监管，然后再开启"缩表"进程。美联储最终降息幅度或超出市场预期，美元 宽松交易可能在短期回归。美债收益率曲线陡峭化叠加金融去监管，利好美国银行股票。美联储或将决定黄金牛市的终点，但这一拐点尚未到来。中 国股票与全球商品只是暂时承压，静待宽松预期回归。 点击小程序查看报告原文 文/中金大类资产研究：李昭，杨晓卿 图表1：特朗普提名沃什为下一届美联储主席后，黄金、股票、商品全线回调 资料来源：Wind，iFinD，中金公司研究部 过去一年时间，AI科技浪潮与美元流动性是全球市场两大主线。货币秩序重构，美元趋于贬值，推动美元流动性宽松，是黄金与股票全线上涨、中国股票 跑赢美国股票的最关键基石（ 《大类资产2026年展望：乘势而上》 ）。如果沃什最终成功收缩美联储资产负债表，则可部分修复美元信誉，延缓"去美元 化"进程，并收紧美元流动性，会直接动摇美元流动性这一市场主线，逆转全球市场趋势。 我们认为 不宜将 ...

责任编辑：陈平 2月5日，随着比特币价格在70000美元中段持续盘整，市场情绪正经历严峻考验。FXGT认为，当前的 波动并非单纯的短期回调，链上数据展现出的参与度萎缩和现货需求匮乏，正释放出强烈的熊市警示信 号。在缺乏实质性买盘支撑的情况下，比特币在亚洲交易时段表现疲软，反映出投资者对于结构性流动 性收紧的深切忧虑。 从具体资金流向看，FXGT表示，此前作为牛市引擎的美国现货比特币ETF已由净买入转为净卖出，这 种机构层面的态度转变造成了显著的需求真空。此外，通过观察事实数据发现，自去年10月以来 Coinbase溢价持续维持负值，且稳定币龙头USDT的市值增长自2023年以来首次出现负增长。这些数据 共同指向一个事实：支撑加密资产上行的核心驱动力——即充裕的美元流动性和美国现货买盘——目前 正处于停滞甚至倒退的状态。 宏观层面的压力同样不容小觑。比特币目前表现出的属性更接近于高贝塔值风险资产，而非避险工具。 预测市场的数据显示，由于美国经济表现出超预期的韧性，交易员普遍押注美联储在4月会议上将维持 利率不变，降息预期的推迟进一步压制了风险资产的弹性。FXGT认为，在政治因素与宏观政策交织的 复杂背景下，市场 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals and Currency Predictions - Goldman Sachs maintains a significant upward risk for its 2026 gold price forecast of $5,400 per ounce, attributing January's price fluctuations primarily to Western capital flows rather than speculative behavior, with silver experiencing larger adjustments due to tight liquidity in the London market [1] - Danske Bank indicates that the nomination of Waller as Fed Chair has shifted short-term risks favorably for the US dollar, alleviating concerns about the Fed's independence and allowing for a tactical window for dollar rebound [2] - RHB Retail Research suggests that unless gold closes above $5,090 per ounce, the bearish technical outlook remains intact, with strong selling pressure expected at this resistance level [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations and Currency Risks - ING notes that the Australian dollar faces a risk of weakening due to overly aggressive market expectations for further interest rate hikes, despite the RBA's projected inflation rate of 3.7% for June [4] - Eastern Wealth Management anticipates that the European Central Bank may lower interest rates later this year due to lower-than-expected inflation, with current deposit rates at 2.00% [5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Insights - CICC asserts that the choice of Fed Chair is unlikely to significantly impact the normalization of the balance sheet expansion, as current liquidity conditions remain tight, contributing to market panic selling [6] - CITIC Securities predicts a high probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in Q2 2026, driven by the need to support banks amid narrowing net interest margins and significant government debt issuance [7] - CITIC Securities highlights a continuing price increase in the electronic components industry, driven by supply-demand tightness and rising upstream metal prices, recommending focus on sectors benefiting from this trend [8] Group 4: Technology and Market Trends - CITIC Securities reports that OpenAI will launch its first ads in early February 2026, indicating a shift towards monetization strategies for large models, balancing user experience with revenue generation [9] - CITIC Securities expresses optimism about the solid-state battery sector, anticipating significant developments in 2026 as multiple manufacturers prepare for testing and small-scale production [10] - CITIC Securities notes that the global commercial space industry is entering a new phase focused on large-scale deployment and ecosystem building, with significant advancements driven by both US and Chinese companies [11] Group 5: Consumer and Market Behavior - Galaxy Securities highlights the strong demand for travel during the 2026 Spring Festival, benefiting OTA platforms and the duty-free sector, with significant revenue growth expected [12] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the "Spring Rally" may be more sustained this year due to solid foundations, including policy expectations and increased consumer spending [13] - Huatai Securities indicates that the recent VAT adjustment for telecom operators may have a lower-than-expected impact on profits, as companies adapt through technological upgrades [14]