Group 1 - The Hang Seng Tech Index is viewed with mixed feelings by investors, appreciated for its elasticity during market rallies but criticized for its volatility and the need for precise timing in entry and exit [2][3] - The recent performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index shows a decline from 5725.99 points on January 26 to 5260.50 points on February 25, representing a drop of 9.27% over the month, indicating a challenging holding experience for investors [3][4] - The external liquidity environment is tightening, significantly impacting the performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index, as it is influenced by the dollar liquidity conditions despite the Fed being in a rate-cutting cycle [4][5] Group 2 - Some forward-looking indicators are showing signs of improvement, such as the narrowing spread between SOFR and IORB, which suggests that the previously tight liquidity conditions are beginning to ease [6][7] - In the context of high-risk, high-elasticity assets like the Hang Seng Tech Index, cost considerations are crucial for long-term investment success, with lower fees potentially leading to significantly better returns over time [9][10] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Tech Index is currently undervalued compared to other indices like the ChiNext and NASDAQ, which may provide significant upside potential if macro conditions improve and liquidity increases [10][12] - Recent market adjustments are not indicative of systemic risk but rather structural adjustments, with a stable market sentiment and continued capital inflow reflecting long-term investment value [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Copper: Market risk appetite is low, and copper prices are under pressure. During the Spring Festival, LME copper oscillated below $13,000. Compared with the strength of precious metals, copper and the non - ferrous sector were relatively calm, showing a clear divergence from the overseas precious metals trend. The rise in macro - sentiment stems from capital's hedging needs rather than global economic growth expectations or inflation. Copper has industrial attributes and is more sensitive to demand uncertainties caused by tariff policies and changes in US dollar liquidity. After the festival, the recovery of domestic liquidity and downstream restocking demand may support copper prices from the industrial side. Continuously monitor domestic inventory and downstream restocking [6][56]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices first declined and then rose during the Spring Festival, and industrial support may increase after the festival. During the Spring Festival, LME aluminum first declined and then rose, ending with a slight increase. On the evening of February 20th, benefiting from the US Supreme Court's ruling that the tariff was illegal, global assets generally rose, and aluminum prices also followed. Before the festival, aluminum prices dropped significantly with the macro - market trend but stabilized above 23,000. After the festival, as liquidity recovers and domestic industrial restocking demand increases, industrial support for aluminum prices is expected to continue to rise. In addition, the low global aluminum inventory in the medium - to - long term will also support aluminum prices. Note that overseas macro - fluctuations and the overall volatility of precious metals and the non - ferrous sector may continue to affect aluminum prices [7][56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - During the Spring Festival, overseas markets were mainly affected by the tense situation between the US and Iran and US tariff policies, which increased market hedging demand and reduced risk appetite. The US dollar oscillated strongly, and copper prices were under pressure [11]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are multiple figures related to copper price trends, such as copper futures price trends, copper Shanghai - London ratio, etc. [14][15] 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - On February 13th, the copper ore port inventory was 475,000 tons, a weekly increase of 33,000 tons and a decrease of 156,000 tons compared with the same period last year [27]. 3.2.3 Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Inventory - On February 12th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 371,600 tons, a weekly increase of 19,300 tons. On February 23rd, the COMEX + LME inventory was 842,300 tons, a weekly increase of 38,900 tons. Domestic inventory is in seasonal accumulation, while overseas inventory continues to rise at a high level [29]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial Segment No specific text - based summary content provided, but there is a figure about copper downstream monthly capacity utilization [31][34] 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to aluminum price trends, such as aluminum price trends and aluminum Shanghai - London ratio [32][33] 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On February 13th, the bauxite port inventory was 2,554,260 tons, an increase of 63,260 tons from last week and an increase of 732,260 tons compared with the same period in 2025 [39]. 3.3.3 Low Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - On February 12th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 914,000 tons, a weekly increase of 61,000 tons. On February 23rd, the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 477,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,000 tons [47]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial Segment - On February 12th, the aluminum rod inventory was 222,000 tons, a weekly increase of 61,900 tons. The aluminum rod inventory is in seasonal accumulation, but high aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand. Continuously monitor the inventory accumulation speed [53].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the recent strong non-farm payrolls and weak CPI data have caused significant disturbances in asset prices, leading to fluctuating expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The combination of these data suggests that the weaker CPI has somewhat alleviated the hawkish pressure from the strong non-farm data. The firm believes that the Fed may struggle to provide clear signals for easing in the short term, and asset prices will continue to oscillate around the dynamics of growth resilience and inflation stickiness. A significant change in policy space is likely to occur after the leadership transition in May, with potential adjustments under Warsh's leadership possibly opening up more room for rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][23]. CPI Summary - In January, the CPI was reported at 2.4% year-on-year, lower than expectations and previous values, marking a three-month decline. The core CPI remained at 2.5%, in line with expectations but below the previous value. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, matching the 12-month average, while the core CPI rose by 0.3%, exceeding the 12-month average of 0.2% [2][3]. - Key components of the CPI showed a decline in food prices from 3.1% to 2.9% year-on-year, and energy prices fell from 2.3% to -0.1%. Core goods and services also exhibited slight decreases in inflation rates, indicating persistent service inflation pressures [2][3]. Non-Farm Payroll Summary - The January non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, below expectations and the previous rate of 4.4%, reaching a new low since September 2025. The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, higher than anticipated [6][11]. - Job growth was primarily concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors, which contributed nearly 80% of the new jobs. Other sectors like professional services and construction showed modest improvements, while information and finance sectors continued to decline [11][16]. Asset Price Movements - Following the non-farm report, U.S. stock indices and bond yields initially rose before declining, with gold prices experiencing similar fluctuations. After the CPI release, stock indices showed mixed results, while bond yields and the dollar index fell, and gold prices increased [18][20]. - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts fluctuated, with a decrease in anticipated cuts following the non-farm data, but a slight increase after the CPI release. The implied number of rate cuts for 2026 decreased from 2.4 to 2.12 after the non-farm data, while it rose from 2.36 to 2.53 after the CPI data [20][23]. Future Outlook - The combination of strong non-farm data and sticky service inflation suggests that while employment remains resilient, inflation pressures persist. The Fed is unlikely to signal clear easing in the short term, and asset prices will continue to be influenced by these dynamics. A potential shift in policy may occur after the leadership change in May, with the possibility of more significant rate cuts in the latter half of the year [23][24].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The January CPI in the US was 2.4% year-on-year, lower than expected and the previous value, marking a decline for three consecutive months since September 2025 [3][4] - Core CPI remained at 2.5%, in line with expectations but lower than the previous value, while the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2%, also below expectations [3][4] - Energy price declines, along with decreases in used car prices and slight slowdowns in housing and food inflation, contributed to the overall CPI being below expectations [4] Group 2: Non-Farm Employment Report - The US added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, significantly exceeding the expected 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025 [6][12] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected and previous rate of 4.4%, reaching a new low since September 2025 [6][12] - Employment improvements were primarily driven by a few sectors, particularly education and healthcare, which contributed nearly 80% of the new jobs, indicating a lack of broad-based recovery [12][14] Group 3: Market Reactions and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of the non-farm data, US stock markets, bond yields, and the dollar index experienced fluctuations, while gold prices initially fell before rising [16][17] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 increasing from 2.36 to 2.53 after the CPI release, indicating a slight warming of rate cut expectations [17][21] - The combination of strong non-farm data and weak CPI has led to a complex interplay in asset prices, with ongoing debates about growth resilience and inflation persistence [21][22]

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous rate, indicating a new low since September 2025[2] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly above the previous value of 62.4%[7] Inflation Data - The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below market expectations and the previous value, continuing a three-month decline since September 2025[3] - The core CPI remained stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching market expectations but higher than the 12-month average of 0.2%[3] - The "super core" CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.59%, significantly higher than the previous month's 0.23%, indicating persistent service inflation[4] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, asset prices were volatile, with U.S. stocks initially rising and then falling, while gold prices increased[9] - After the CPI announcement, market expectations for interest rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 rising from 2.36 to 2.53 times[10] Economic Outlook - The combination of strong employment data and weak CPI suggests a complex economic landscape, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in the short term[11] - Significant changes in policy are anticipated post the May 2026 leadership transition at the Federal Reserve, which may open up more room for rate cuts later in the year[12]

来源：熊园-国盛证券首席经济学家 国盛证券宏观分析师，戴琨 事件：美国2026年1月季调后非农就业人口增加13万人，远超市场预期，创2025年4月以来新高；1月失业率4.3%，低于市场预期，创2025年9月以来新 低。美国2026年1月未季调CPI同比2.4%，低于市场预期；季调后环比0.2%，低于市场预期；核心CPI环比0.3%，持平市场预期。 核心结论："强"非农、"弱"CPI先后公布，资产价格明显受扰动，美联储降息预期先降温后再升温。CPI公布后，当前利率期货隐含的2026全年降息次数由 2.36次升至2.53次。两组数据结合看，较弱的CPI一定程度上打消了较强非农带来的鹰派压力。倾向于认为：美联储短期内可能仍难以释放明确的宽松信 号，资产价格仍将围绕增长韧性与通胀粘性的博弈展开震荡；政策空间的真正变化节点大概率出现在5月主席换届之后，交接后Warsh治下联储政策立场 若出现边际调整，叠加经济动能在上半年逐步放缓，下半年降息空间可能明显打开。继续提示：目前市场对美联储丧失独立性的计价可能不足；除降息路 径外，美元流动性也是关注焦点。 | | 权重 | | | 季调后环比 | | | | 未季调同比 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock price has experienced a nine-day decline, entering a technical bear market, making it the second member of the "Mag7" (the seven largest U.S. tech companies) to do so, following Microsoft. The total market value of the Mag7 has decreased by approximately $1.51 trillion this year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Amazon's stock closed at $198.79 per share, down over 23% from its recent peak [2]. - Microsoft was the first Mag7 member to enter a bear market, with its stock down 27.8% from its recent high as of Friday's close [2]. - Meta is on the verge of entering a bear market, having declined 19.6% from its peak, just 0.4% away from the 20% threshold [2]. Group 2: Institutional Selling - UBS and Goldman Sachs have significantly reduced their holdings in several major U.S. tech stocks, as indicated in their recent 13F filings with the SEC [2][4]. - UBS reduced its stake in Nvidia by 10.57 million shares, representing an 11.47% decrease, and also reduced its positions in Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Google by varying percentages [4]. - Goldman Sachs also reduced its holdings in Microsoft, Tesla, Broadcom, and Meta, with reductions ranging from 5.86% to 13.51% [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Influences - The decline in the Mag7 stocks coincides with similar trends in the A-share market, indicating a potential shift in global investment styles [5]. - Factors contributing to this trend include investor skepticism regarding the return on investment from AI expenditures by tech giants and a potential negative shift in free cash flow due to increased capital expenditures [5]. - The U.S. short-term liquidity market is showing signs of strain, with overnight reverse repos dropping to a low of $3.77 billion, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [5].

Group 1 - Amazon's stock price has fallen for nine consecutive days, entering a technical bear market, becoming the second member of the "Magnificent Seven" (Mag7) to do so, following Microsoft [1][2] - The total market capitalization of the Mag7 has decreased by approximately $1.51 trillion (about 10.4 trillion yuan) this year [3] - Microsoft was the first Mag7 member to enter a bear market, with its stock price down 27.8% from recent highs as of Friday's close [2][3] Group 2 - UBS and Goldman Sachs have significantly reduced their holdings in several major U.S. tech stocks, as indicated in their recent 13F filings with the SEC [1][5] - UBS reduced its stake in Nvidia by 10.57%, Microsoft by 7.64%, Apple by 10.57%, Amazon by 4.57%, and Google by 9.05% [5] - Goldman Sachs also reduced its holdings in Microsoft by 5.86%, Tesla by 8.27%, Broadcom by 9.33%, and Meta by 13.51% [5] Group 3 - The decline in the Mag7 stocks coincides with similar trends in the A-share market, indicating a potential shift in global investment styles [6] - Factors contributing to these changes include investor skepticism regarding the return on investment from AI spending by tech giants and a potential shift in global liquidity and macroeconomic conditions [7] - The U.S. short-term liquidity market is reportedly experiencing a significant contraction, with overnight reverse repos dropping to a very low level, indicating a tightening of liquidity [7]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock price has experienced a nine-day decline, entering a technical bear market, making it the second member of the "Magnificent Seven" (Mag7) to do so, following Microsoft. The total market value of the Mag7 has decreased by approximately $1.51 trillion this year [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Amazon's stock closed at $198.79 per share, down over 23% from recent highs. Other major tech stocks, including Apple and Nvidia, also fell by more than 2%, while Facebook dropped over 1%. The Mag7 index declined by 1.31% [3]. - Microsoft was the first Mag7 member to enter a bear market on January 29, with its stock down 27.8% from recent highs. Meta is close to entering a bear market, down 19.6% from last year's peak, just 0.4% away from the 20% threshold [3]. Group 2: Institutional Selling - UBS and Goldman Sachs have reported significant reductions in their holdings of several major U.S. tech stocks in their recent filings with the SEC. UBS reduced its stake in Nvidia by 11.47%, selling 10.042 million shares, and also cut its positions in Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Google by varying percentages [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs also reduced its holdings, selling 5.86% of its Microsoft shares and 8.27% of its Tesla shares, among other reductions in other tech stocks [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Economic Factors - The decline in the Mag7 coincides with similar trends in the A-share market, indicating a potential shift in global investment styles. For instance, Agricultural Bank of China has dropped nearly 24% from its peak [7]. - Factors contributing to these changes include investor skepticism regarding the return on investment from AI spending by tech giants and rising capital expenditures potentially leading to negative free cash flow this year. Additionally, the overall liquidity and macroeconomic landscape are influencing these trends [7]. - Recent data shows a significant drop in overnight reverse repos in the U.S. to $3.77 billion, indicating a near depletion of short-term liquidity in the market. Despite a rebound in major indices, the U.S. leveraged loan index has also declined, reflecting a strong desire for deleveraging [7].

图说大宗 证券研究报告 2026.02.08 图说大宗：宏观情绪与基本面共振，金 银铜波动加剧 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070006 SFC CE Ref：BBU524 chaohui.guo@cicc.com.cn 郭朝辉 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 陈雷 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524020004 lei.chen@cicc.com.cn 宏观回顾：国内内需仍偏弱，沃什难撼扩表 国内方面，1 月中采制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.3%，低于市场预期（Reuters 预测中值 50.0%；1 月非制造业商务活动指数环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.4%；综合 PMI 环比下降 0.9 个百分点至 49.8%，皆再度回到收缩区间。中金宏观组认为，季节性因素或对数据扰动较大，但除了季节性以外， 需求仍然弱于供给，两者缺口进一步扩大。结构上，消费品制造业和小型企业回落较多。制造业整体受 大宗商品价格上涨影响，原材料购进价格上升，但向下游传导能力仍受制于需求。建筑业受天气和季节 性因素影 ...