Group 1 - The stock market shows a strong trend while the bond market faces challenges, leading to a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [1][4] - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds has increased by 14 basis points and 23 basis points respectively since early July, reaching 1.7818% and 2.0775% [1] - The bond market sentiment remains cautious despite a slight recovery potential as the 10-year government bond yield approaches the 1.8% mark [4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic fundamentals of the bond market have not changed significantly, with weak financing demand and a reasonably ample liquidity environment providing support [2] - In July, social financing continued to show a divergence in total and structural characteristics, with government bond issuance being a major contributor while real financing demand remains weak [2] - Economic data for July indicates weakening demand pressures, with notable declines in investment, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing [2][3] Group 3 - The current economic strength suggests that achieving annual growth targets is not overly pressured, with rising commodity prices contributing to a rebound in inflation expectations [3] - The monetary policy is in a "comfortable zone," with no immediate motivation for active easing, and the probability of rate cuts further decreasing in the third quarter [3] - Recent policies aimed at supporting personal consumption loans and service industry loans reflect a coordinated effort between fiscal and monetary policies to boost consumption and stabilize employment [3][4] Group 4 - A new "quasi-fiscal" tool worth 500 billion yuan is set to be implemented, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure, which can enhance effective investment [4] - The market has experienced three phases since the beginning of the year: tightening liquidity in Q1, a dual bull market in Q2, and a renewed "see-saw" effect in Q3 driven by strong policy support [4] - The future of the "see-saw" market trend will depend on whether the positive expectations for the economic fundamentals can translate into reality and the direction of monetary policy [4]

Core Insights - A significant shift in wealth management is occurring in China, with households moving away from traditional bank deposits to explore new investment avenues [1][12] - The decline in bank deposit attractiveness, driven by falling interest rates, is prompting a migration of funds towards non-bank financial institutions and the stock market [4][5] Group 1: Bank Deposits and Non-Bank Financial Institutions - In July, Chinese household deposits saw a dramatic drop of 1.11 trillion yuan, marking the second-largest monthly decline in history, while non-bank financial institutions' deposits surged by 2.14 trillion yuan [3] - The one-year fixed deposit rate from major state-owned banks has fallen to a historic low of 0.95%, leading to a significant decrease in deposit interest income compared to five years ago [4] Group 2: Stock Market Dynamics - The stock market has become a primary destination for funds, with A-share indices rising significantly in July: the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component by 5.2%, and the ChiNext by 8.14% [5] - A substantial portion of the new funds entering the stock market is attributed to residents transferring money from bank accounts to securities accounts, with 60% of non-bank deposit growth coming from these transfers [5] Group 3: Wealth Management Products - Bank wealth management products have emerged as a crucial intermediary for fund transfers, with total assets surpassing 30.67 trillion yuan and an average annualized return of 2.12% [7] - The demand for wealth management products is evident, as seen in the 200% increase in sales of specific products designed for transitioning funds from deposits to investments [7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact - Some individuals are opting to repay mortgages early to reduce debt costs, with personal housing loan balances decreasing by 852 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025 [8] - Consumer spending is also on the rise, with domestic tourism reaching 3.2 trillion yuan in revenue, reflecting a shift towards enjoying current experiences rather than saving [8] Group 5: Market Risks and Concerns - There are emerging concerns about funds not effectively reaching the real economy, with signs of "capital turnover" and a notable increase in cash transactions in the real estate market [9] - Historical precedents warn of potential market volatility, as seen in the 2015 stock market crash following a similar surge in non-bank deposits [11]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration issued a detailed implementation plan for the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, which is expected to stimulate consumption and support domestic demand while potentially delaying overall interest rate cuts [1] - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining policy continuity and stability, with a focus on solidifying credit support and preventing fund circularity, indicating a shift towards structural regulation rather than an increase in total credit [2] - The current market shows a strong stock performance but weak bond performance, with multiple factors such as tax period cash flow tightening and rising stock market volumes contributing to a downward adjustment in the bond market [3] Group 2 - The bond market's adjustment is limited due to the need for further recovery in domestic demand, and stability in the bond market requires signals of liquidity support from the central bank [3] - The central bank's increased reverse repurchase operations on August 19 showed initial signs of stabilization in the bond market, with attention on the upcoming MLF operations and fluctuations in funding rates [3] - The report highlights the need to address excessive low-price competition in certain industries and promote consumption to achieve reasonable price recovery, which will be a key policy direction moving forward [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, bond yields may fluctuate downward. Although government bond issuance brings certain net - increase pressure, the certainty of the downward trend of capital prices is relatively high due to the marginal decline of the central bank's open - market maturity scale and the gradual subsidence of tax - period disturbances. In the long term, the bond yield is still in a downward trend under the background of weak fundamentals [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Performance Last Week - Bond yields generally increased, the term spread widened, and the curve became steeper. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 6BP to 1.7465%, the short - term interest rate rose slightly, and the term spread increased by 4BP. Bank - to - bank pledged repo rates and financial institution pledged repo rates both increased. The liquidity of the banking system remained reasonably abundant, and the R007 - DR007 spread narrowed, but the stratification between non - bank institutions and banks still existed [3]. Factors Driving Bond Yield Increases - The increase in market risk preference, tax - period disturbances, and the substantial increase in government bond supply jointly pushed up bond yields. The stock - bond seesaw effect, with the steady rise of the equity index, suppressed the bond market. The tax - period on the 15th led to a convergence of the money market and a significant increase in capital prices. The net increase in government bond issuance also contributed to the rise in bond yields [4]. Policy - related Influences - Policies on preventing capital idling and fiscal discount loans indicate that the pace of comprehensive interest rate cuts may slow down. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report emphasizes preventing capital idling, suggesting a possible delay in the pace of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The fiscal discount policy for personal consumption and business loans strengthens the signal of a slowdown in the pace of comprehensive interest rate cuts [5]. Fundamental Situation - Economic data generally declined, and loans in the real - sector weakened, reflecting the weak economic operation. In July, economic and financial data showed that the contradiction of "weak demand + resilient supply + low prices" continued. Industrial added - value growth slightly decreased, overall investment growth was dragged down by real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing, consumption momentum slightly slowed down, and financing in the resident and enterprise sectors was weak [6][7]. Capital - related Situation - This week, liquidity continued to be relatively loose. The maturity scale of the central bank's reverse repurchase decreased significantly, which will relieve capital pressure. The tax - period disturbances are gradually subsiding, and capital prices may decline [7]. Supply - side Situation - This week, local government bond issuance increased, and government bond issuance maintained a net - increase trend. It is expected that the central bank will adjust capital injection to maintain liquidity. The net increase in local government bond issuance this week was 2366 billion yuan compared with last week, and the net increase in Treasury bond issuance also increased by about 1000 billion yuan compared with last week. The scale of government bond payments decreased marginally compared with last week [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high of 3741.29 points, marking a significant milestone as the A-share market surpassed a market capitalization of 100 trillion yuan [1] - Since the low point in April, the index has increased by 22.6%, with 4625 stocks rising and 104 hitting the daily limit [1] Bull Market Indicators - A bull market is characterized by a sustained index increase of over 20%, stable trends, and broad participation from both blue-chip and small-cap stocks [3] - Daily trading volume has stabilized at 1-2 trillion yuan, indicating active market participation across various sectors [3] - In July, 1.9636 million new A-share accounts were opened, a 31.72% increase from June, contributing to a total of 14.5613 million new accounts in 2023, a 36.88% year-on-year increase [3] Economic Implications - There are mixed views on whether a rising stock market will lead to improved economic conditions, as the relationship between stock performance and consumer behavior is complex [4] - The transition from a bull market to economic growth requires more than just stock price increases; it necessitates effective capital allocation and investment in production [4] Market Dynamics - The current bull market could either be a "slow bull" or a "fast bull," with the former being characterized by steady growth and the latter by rapid price increases followed by sharp corrections [5][7] - Historical fast bull markets (2005-2007, 2014-2015) saw significant index increases but were followed by severe downturns, highlighting the risks associated with rapid price appreciation [5] Capital Flow Trends - This bull market has seen a shift in capital allocation, with 66% of financing directed towards information technology, industrials, and materials, particularly in hard tech sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy [11] - The increase in M1 growth (5.6%) compared to M2 growth (8.8%) suggests a shift towards more liquid assets, indicating improved economic activity and consumer confidence [8] Long-term Outlook - The potential for a prolonged bull market similar to the U.S. is uncertain, as it relies on high corporate profits and effective capital management strategies [12] - Domestic companies are beginning to show profitability in international markets, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and pharmaceuticals, indicating a shift towards global competitiveness [13] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on quality stocks and sectors with strong growth potential, as the current market sentiment is characterized by high volatility and speculative behavior [22] - The importance of disciplined investment strategies is emphasized, as many investors tend to buy high and sell low, leading to losses [17][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From August 11 - 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net capital withdrawal, and a 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan was conducted. The overall liquidity remained stable and loose during the week, with a marginal increase in funding rates on the 15th due to the tax period. The central bank's monetary policy implementation report re - mentioned "preventing capital idling", but it is expected not to cause a tightening of the liquidity. The government bond net payment scale increased, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields rose, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased [2][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - **Open Market Operations**: From August 11 - 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 41.49 billion yuan. From August 18 - 22, 71.18 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 22 billion yuan of treasury deposits will mature, and a 12 - billion - yuan treasury cash deposit operation will be carried out on August 18. After the central bank conducted a 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on August 8, it carried out another 50 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15, with a total excess roll - over of 30 billion yuan in August [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From August 11 - 15, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.33% and 1.37% respectively, up 1.9 basis points from August 4 - 8; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.45% and 1.47% respectively, up 0.6 basis points and down 0.1 basis points from August 4 - 8. DR001 increased marginally to 1.40% on August 15 when entering the tax payment stage. After the tax period ends, the funding rates are expected to return to the stable and loose level in the first half of August [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 41.036 billion yuan, an increase of about 3.98 billion yuan compared with August 4 - 10. From August 18 - 24, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 26.41 billion yuan [8]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yields**: As of August 15, 2025, the yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.4600% and 1.5250% respectively, up 1 basis point and down 1 basis point from August 8; the yield of 1 - year NCDs was 1.6400%, up 2 basis points from August 8 [9]. - **Net Financing**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 131.1 billion yuan. From August 18 - 24, the maturity repayment volume of NCDs is expected to be 794.7 billion yuan, with the roll - over pressure decreasing compared with the previous week [9]. 3. Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From August 11 - 15, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.83%, compared with 107.70% from August 4 - 8 [10].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 266.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan after 112 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - In the previous week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan from the open market, while a 500 billion yuan 6-month buyout repo operation was conducted, leading to a net injection of 300 billion yuan for the month [1] - The overall funding rates remained loose, with slight tightening observed near tax payment periods, as the average funding rate showed a minor increase [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming week (August 18-22) will see a decrease in the scale of reverse repos maturing to 711.8 billion yuan, primarily due to a large amount maturing on Friday, while government debt net payments will drop to 294.1 billion yuan [2] - Despite the PBOC not lowering the overnight interest rate floor, it is expected to control funding price fluctuations, maintaining a relatively loose funding environment [2] - After the tax payment period, liquidity is likely to ease, with overnight rates expected to return to around OMO-5 basis points, and 7-day rates potentially adjusting to the range of 1.45%-1.47% [2] Group 3 - The PBOC's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to align social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [3][4] - The report reflects a cautious approach towards further easing, reiterating the importance of improving fund utilization efficiency and preventing fund idling [3][4] - The overall tone of monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with a focus on maintaining stability in credit volume while emphasizing structural adjustments in areas such as technological innovation and consumption [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Economic and financial data weakness does not change the high - low switching trend between stocks and bonds, with stocks strong and bonds weak. The continuous net -回笼 of funds by the central bank from Monday to Thursday last week did not change the loose liquidity, and the central bank switched to net - injection on Friday. The loose funds support short - end interest rates, while long - end interest rates are rising due to the strong performance of the equity market [2][92]. - The Q2 2025 monetary policy report shows an attitude of liquidity care and emphasizes "preventing capital idling". The central bank may focus more on micro - level changes, improve the transmission efficiency of policy interest rates to market interest rates, and prevent capital idling in the next stage [2][11][93]. - Given the loose funds and strong stock market, the yield curve may become steeper. In the short term, short - term bonds perform well due to loose funds, while long - term bonds are at a disadvantage. In the long term, the interest rate center will decline, and the rigid demand of institutional investors will support bonds. The investment strategy is to "shorten portfolio duration + prioritize old bonds" [2][95]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Matters - On August 15, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 5000 - billion - yuan 6 - month买断式逆回购 operation, resulting in a net injection of 3000 billion yuan after the operation, as the August maturity scale is 9000 billion yuan [5]. - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued a personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, with detailed subsidy rules and a list of first - batch loan - handling institutions [7]. - The credit data in July 2025 was relatively weak. The cumulative social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan, with specific changes in various components compared to the previous year [8]. - The Q2 2025 monetary policy report was released on August 15, with changes in the next - stage monetary policy direction compared to the Q1 report, mainly focusing on implementing policies more precisely, improving interest rate transmission, and preventing capital idling [11]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From August 11 to 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day open - market operations had a net -回笼 of 4149 billion yuan. It is expected that 9318 billion yuan of base currency will be matured and withdrawn from August 18 to 22 [15][16]. - The funds were relatively loose last week, and the policy interest rate of the 7 - day open - market reverse repurchase was 1.40%. As of August 15, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 had specific changes compared to August 8, and their interest rate centers also changed [21]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, commercial bank certificates of deposit were in a net - financing - out state last week, with a net financing scale of - 1311.1 billion yuan. The state - owned banks had the largest issuance scale, and the 1 - year CD issuance rate of national and joint - stock banks dropped to around 1.62% - 1.63% [27][30]. - In the secondary market, due to the overall market weakness, the yields of CDs of all maturities were on the rise, and the 1Y - 3M term spread widened [34]. 3. Bond Market - In the primary market, on August 14, the marginal interest rate of the 3 - year treasury bond (250015) was 1.4600%, and the net - financing rhythm of local government bonds from January to August was faster than that of treasury bonds. The supply of local bonds from August to September may have a relatively long average maturity. Last week, the issuance and net - financing scale of interest - rate bonds decreased [38][45]. - As of August 15, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 reached 1.89 trillion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities, with certain regional differences in issuance [47]. - In the secondary market, the strong performance of the equity market last week led to a weak bond market. The short - end interest rates were supported by low - level running funds, and the curve steepened further. The trading volume and turnover rate of 10 - year treasury and CDB active bonds increased, and the term spread and the spread between national and local bonds had specific changes [50][54][57]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - In July, the institutional leverage ratio decreased seasonally and was at a relatively low level compared to the same period due to the upward - fluctuating bond market. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was relatively high last week [66][71]. - In the cash - bond market, state - owned banks increased their holdings of treasury bonds with maturities within 5 years, rural commercial banks increased their holdings of treasury bonds with maturities over 5 years and CDB bonds with maturities of 5 - 10 years, while securities firms and funds were net sellers, and funds mainly reduced their holdings of long - term bonds [66][76]. - The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year treasury bonds is above 1.70%, with rural commercial banks' cost decreasing due to large - scale position - adding [79]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar futures decreased by 1.47% week - on - week, wire rod futures remained flat, cathode copper futures increased by 1.01%, the cement price index decreased by 1.05%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased by 1.58%. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62%, and the BDI index increased by 2.26%. The wholesale price of pork decreased by 3.00%, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 3.94%. Brent crude oil futures increased by 8.88%, and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.61%. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.14 [90]. 6. Market Outlook - The high - low switching trend between stocks and bonds will continue. The central bank's liquidity operations maintain loose funds, supporting short - end interest rates and causing long - end interest rates to rise due to the strong equity market [2][92]. - The central bank may focus on micro - level changes and improve the transmission efficiency of interest rates in the next - stage monetary policy, while preventing capital idling [2][93]. - The yield curve may become steeper in the short term. In the long term, the interest rate center will decline, and the investment strategy is to "shorten portfolio duration + prioritize old bonds" [2][95].

Market Overview - In July, non-bank deposits reached a historical high for the same period, indicating strong market support[1] - The average trading volume last week was 2.1 trillion CNY, an increase of 405.5 billion CNY from the previous week[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.55%[3] Economic Indicators - July economic data showed signs of slowdown, with fixed asset investment and retail sales both declining year-on-year[3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July was reported at 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%[3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased to 3.3%, exceeding the expected 2.5%[3] Policy and Market Sentiment - Recent policies, including personal consumption loan subsidies, are expected to boost credit recovery in the future[3] - The market sentiment is currently cautious due to weak fundamentals, with expectations for further monetary policy easing diminishing[3] - The central bank's recent actions indicate limited support for the bond market, with a focus on preventing capital misallocation[3] International Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.74% and the S&P 500 up 0.94%[3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.36%, while offshore RMB depreciated against the dollar[3] - Gold prices declined by 3.14% amid easing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Russia[3]