Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel and ore generally showed an upward trend, with iron ore performing better than finished steel. After the New - Year holiday, the market's optimism about macro - policies increased, especially the "Two New Policies" driving the overall rise of the black - series. The increase in hot metal production and steel mill profits led to high expectations for steel mill restocking, making iron ore the strongest performer. However, the current rise is still a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with no substantial improvement in the fundamental situation. The apparent demand has dropped significantly compared to before the holiday, indicating a seasonal off - peak season. Therefore, the report is not optimistic about the sustained strength of prices. It is recommended to maintain a view of weakening in a volatile market, focusing on the accumulation of steel social inventory and the intensity of steel mill restocking of iron ore [64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 1.1 One - Week Data Changes - PB powder price increased from 802 yuan/wet ton to 822 yuan/wet ton, a rise of 20 yuan/wet ton; Bar - mixed powder price rose from 846 yuan/wet ton to 857 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 11 yuan/wet ton. - PB powder's spot landing profit increased from 10.46 yuan/wet ton to 14.45 yuan/wet ton, a gain of 3.99 yuan/wet ton; Bar - mixed powder's spot landing profit decreased from 29.15 yuan/wet ton to 8.94 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 20.21 yuan/wet ton. - Australia's shipping volume to China decreased from 1802.3 tons to 1553.8 tons, a reduction of 248.5 tons; Brazil's shipping volume decreased from 944 tons to 792.5 tons, a decline of 151.5 tons. - Imported iron ore port inventory increased from 16721.79 tons to 17044.44 tons, a rise of 322.65 tons; Imported iron ore arrival volume increased from 2727.8 tons to 2824.7 tons, an increase of 96.9 tons. - Imported iron ore port clearance volume decreased from 340.21 tons to 336.96 tons, a drop of 3.25 tons; Iron ore port daily trading volume increased from 61.8 tons to 93.7 tons, a rise of 31.9 tons. - Average daily hot metal production increased from 227.43 tons to 229.5 tons, a gain of 2.07 tons; Steel mill profitability decreased from 38.1% to 37.66%, a decline of 0.44 percentage points [6] Other aspects - Also analyzed iron ore port spot prices, iron ore futures - spot basis, iron ore import profit, iron ore shipping volume, iron ore port and steel mill inventory, iron ore arrival and clearance volume, steel enterprise production, iron ore port average daily trading volume, and steel mill average daily hot metal [8][13][15] 2. Market Current Situation Analysis 2.1 One - Week Data Changes - Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton, a drop of 10 yuan/ton; Shanghai hot - rolled coil price remained stable at 3270 yuan/ton. - Blast furnace operating rate increased from 78.94% to 79.31%, a rise of 0.37 percentage points; Electric furnace operating rate increased from 68.63% to 72.97%, a gain of 4.34 percentage points. - Rebar blast furnace profit increased from 48 yuan/ton to 63 yuan/ton, a rise of 15 yuan/ton; Hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from - 29 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton, a gain of 14 yuan/ton. - Rebar electric furnace profit decreased from - 12 yuan/ton to - 32 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan/ton. - Rebar weekly production increased from 188.22 tons to 191.04 tons, a rise of 2.82 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly production increased from 304.51 tons to 305.51 tons, a gain of 1 ton [36] 2.2 Another One - Week Data Changes - Rebar weekly social inventory increased from 282.66 tons to 290.18 tons, a rise of 7.52 tons; Rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased from 139.37 tons to 147.93 tons, a gain of 8.56 tons. - Hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory increased from 288.64 tons to 290.81 tons, a rise of 2.17 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory decreased from 83.32 tons to 77.32 tons, a drop of 6 tons. - Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased from 200.44 tons to 174.96 tons, a decline of 25.48 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption decreased from 310.77 tons to 308.34 tons, a drop of 2.43 tons. - Building materials trading volume increased from 82784 tons to 89295 tons, a rise of 6511 tons [38] Other aspects - Also analyzed rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, rebar and hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai [39][40][41] 3. Supply - Demand Data Analysis - Analyzed blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, rebar and hot - rolled coil actual production, steel profit, steel inventory, building steel trading volume, rebar and hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption changes, steel export volume, real estate investment and sales data, housing construction area data, and manufacturing PMI data [43][45][47]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend since mid-December last year, with the main contract price breaking through a five-month resistance level and reaching a new high [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 2025, iron ore prices are significantly outperforming other black commodities, with the iron ore price index reported at $105.80 per ton [1][2] - The current market structure shows a strong performance in spot prices, with port transactions increasing [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the supportive factors for iron ore prices, the overall supply-demand balance remains weak, limiting upward price momentum [3] - Steel mills have gradually resumed production since 2026, with average daily pig iron output from 247 sample steel mills at 2.2743 million tons, and daily consumption of imported ore at 2.8067 million tons, both showing slight increases [3] - However, the profitability of steel mills remains low, with only 38.10% of the surveyed mills reporting profits, indicating ongoing financial pressure [3] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Pressure - Domestic port arrivals have increased, with the latest data showing 28.247 million tons at 47 ports, a weekly increase of 0.969 million tons, remaining at a high level for the year [4] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased to 32.137 million tons, down 4.6342 million tons week-on-week, but still higher than the same period last year [4] - Port inventories have reached a historical high of 167.2179 million tons, with significant pressure on inventory reduction [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - In summary, while iron ore prices are supported by short-term factors, the overall fundamentals remain weak due to supply pressures and limited demand improvement, leading to expectations of a high-level oscillation in prices [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to continue operating within the bottom range, and the winter storage is unlikely to form a concentrated replenishment market. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policies and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply of iron ore has decreased in the short term, the demand has slightly recovered, and the port inventory is at a high level. Attention should be paid to overseas emergencies [5] - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced [9][10] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are weak, and it mainly relies on silicon enterprises' production cuts to support prices. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate. The demand is weak, the supply is still loose, and the inventory accumulation pressure exists. Attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprises' quota sales and the terminal demand feedback [16] - The price of glass may rise slightly, but the market lacks substantial demand and policy support. The price upward space is estimated to be between 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - The price of soda ash is expected to decline. The supply is in excess, and it is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3104 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of rebar show a slight increase in production, a decline in apparent demand, and continuous inventory reduction. For hot - rolled coils, production has increased significantly, apparent demand has strengthened slightly, and inventory has continued to decline [2] - The overall market is in a narrow - range shock, the terminal demand recovery is slow, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is under pressure. The steel price is expected to continue operating in the bottom range [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 797.00 yuan/ton, up 0.95% (+7.50). The position increased by 25428 hands to 61.88 million hands. The weighted position was 94.83 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 806 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.59 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.96% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has declined, and the shipping from non - mainstream countries has also decreased. The near - end arrival volume has increased [5] - Demand: The daily average molten iron output has slightly increased, some blast furnaces have resumed production, and the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved [5] - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level in the past five years [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.78% at 5866 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.85% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures [8] Strategy Views - Macro: After a series of important macro - events, the market has shown a positive trend, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the "leading" products on the market sentiment [9] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been reflected in the price. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10] - Key factors: The market direction of the black sector and cost - push factors of manganese ore and supply - contraction factors of ferrosilicon are the main contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8730 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (-130). The weighted contract position decreased by 3538 hands to 342532 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis of 470 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively [12] - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 58645 yuan/ton, up 1.25% (+725). The weighted contract position decreased by 6544 hands to 129961 hands. The spot prices of N - type silicon increased, with a basis of - 5395 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable, the demand in January is weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - Polysilicon: The downstream production in January has continued to decline, the supply is still loose, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of quota sales and terminal demand feedback [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1081 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.55% (-6). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 413 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 848 short positions [18] - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1177 yuan/ton on Monday, down 2.65% (-32). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 1719 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 1109 short positions [20] Strategy Views - Glass: In December, the supply decreased, the demand declined in winter, and the market lacked substantial support. The price may rise slightly, with the upward space around 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - Soda Ash: In December, the domestic market was narrowly sorted, the supply was in excess, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are supported by production cuts and strong raw materials but lack upward momentum due to weak demand. The price range for rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils between 3150 - 3350. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and avoid going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the demand is limited. The price range is expected to be between 770 - 840. Short-term long positions can be attempted [4]. Coke Industry - Coke supply and demand have weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal prices are expected to decline. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon supply and demand contradictions still exist, and prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the rebar spot price in East China increased from 3290 to 3300 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost and profit of different steel products showed different trends. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coils decreased by 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, and the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.8%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.9%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 2.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.8%, the global shipping volume decreased by 3.6%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 0.5%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 4.9%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.1%, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased, and the coke futures prices also decreased. The coking profit decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, and the steel mills' willingness to suppress coke prices increased [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.4%, and the inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased slightly, and the coking coal futures prices decreased [8]. Supply - The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal decreased slightly, and the coal mine inventory increased [8]. Demand - The pig iron output remained stable, the coking profit decreased, and the coking plant's production decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - The inventories of washing plants, coking enterprises, coal mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures increased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions remained stable, and the production profits remained unchanged [9]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese production increased slightly [9]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, the steel mill's procurement volume decreased slightly, and the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained stable [9]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off - season of consumption with both supply and demand being weak and winter storage yet to come, and with enhanced macro - level confidence, the futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. For the iron ore sector, although there are factors suppressing prices such as falling steel output and rising port inventories, the 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - level upward trend. The operation suggestion for both sectors is to hold long positions for mid - term trading [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, while the total output of the five major varieties decreased. The overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, that for hot - rolled coil increased, and the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased. The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill output is expected to continue to decline slowly [2] - **Cost Support**: In recent days, coal and coke prices have rebounded sharply, raising the cost support for the futures market [2] - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly, currently not breaking out of the recent oscillation range or forming a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [2] - **Data Details**: Various data on prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are provided. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3130 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day; the total social inventory of the five major varieties is 872.56 million tons, down 3.74% from last week [2] Iron Ore - **Market Confidence**: The Ministry of Finance's statement to ensure necessary spending in 2026, boost consumption, and expand effective investment has boosted market confidence [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall output and apparent demand of the five major steel products continued to decline last week. With the arrival of the off - season, iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. The late arrival of the pre - holiday restocking demand this year and the high global shipments, along with rising port inventories, put pressure on futures prices [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - level upward trend [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [4] - **Data Details**: Data on spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, shipments, freight rates, inventories, etc. are presented. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 796.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.72% from the previous day; the total port inventory is 15858.66 million tons, up 2.23% from last week [5] Industry News - On December 29, some steel mills in Hebei lowered the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 1, 2026, starting the fourth round of coke price cuts [7] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the global iron ore shipments totaled 3677.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 212.6 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 3059.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 244.8 million tons [7] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2727.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.4 million tons; at 45 ports, 2601.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.3 million tons; at six northern ports, 1330.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.2 million tons [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall**: The report presents a weekly analysis of the black industry chain, covering various aspects such as market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of different products including steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys [1][12][13]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to remain at a low level. The impact of short - term domestic macro - market on prices is limited [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a continuously loose supply - demand situation. Although the macro - narrative is positive and the industrial chain fundamentals have improved, the price increase is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore is expected to be in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Coal - Coke**: The fundamentals of the coal - coke market are still weak. Although the coal price has stopped falling and rebounded in the past two weeks, the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The price rebound lacks upward support, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to position risk control before the New Year's Day [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost side has relatively strong support, and future attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the progress of winter storage [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Week - on - Week Market Review - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of the futures main contracts and spot prices of various products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, silicon iron, and scrap steel from December 19 to December 26, 2025 [8]. 3.2 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%, the operating rate decreased by 0.15 percentage points to 78.32%, and the capacity utilization rate increased to 84.94%. The average daily pig iron output increased by 0.03 million tons week - on - week to 2.2658 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 53.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12 percentage points; the average operating rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The steel market was mainly in a sideways consolidation state last week. Heavy pollution weather warnings in many places affected the supply side, but it was the off - season for demand, and the weak demand made it difficult for supply changes to drive price increases [12]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain at a low level [12]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: Macroeconomically, China's monetary and fiscal policies are in a period of active reserve, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. The real - end of the industrial chain is in a weak equilibrium stage, and prices maintain a narrow - range fluctuation trend. The inventory pressure on the steel product side has been continuously relieved, and the valuation of the industrial chain has rebounded. The strong spot price of iron ore supports the futures market, and the upcoming steel mill restocking cycle may support prices. In terms of supply, the weekly shipment of foreign mines decreased slightly, and the arrival volume remained at a medium - to - high level and was higher than the same period last year. In terms of demand, domestic demand has stabilized and rebounded slightly, and the restocking demand is expected to be continuously released. In terms of inventory, the steel mill's imported inventory has increased, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [13]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to operate within the range and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Later Concerns**: Incremental macro - policies, implementation of industrial policies, and supply recovery speed [13]. 3.2.3 Coal - Coke - **Logic**: Last week, the coal - coke futures prices fluctuated widely and closed slightly higher on a weekly basis. The coking coal prices in various regions were weakly stable, and the steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, with further price cut expectations in the market. Coal mines reduced production at the end of the year, and coking enterprises started to replenish inventory moderately, but the overall market transaction was still weak, and the mine - end inventory continued to accumulate. The import volume at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased, and the port supervision area inventory was at a relatively high level. The demand was temporarily stable, and the average daily pig iron output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling [16]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to position risk control before the New Year's Day [16]. - **Later Concerns**: Changes in the production rhythm of coal - coke - steel and changes in the clearance of imported coal [15]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Macroeconomically, the US economy maintains resilience, but there are still internal contradictions. In China, Beijing optimized the purchase - restriction policy, and the central bank carried out MLF operations to release a loose signal. The black metal futures market showed a weak sideways trend last week, and the prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures increased slightly. In terms of supply, the production and operating rate of manganese silicon increased, but the operating rate was still significantly lower than the same period in the past five years; the production and operating rate of silicon iron continued to decline slightly. In terms of demand, the weekly demand for manganese silicon increased slightly, while the demand for silicon iron decreased slightly, and both were significantly lower than the same period in the past five years. In terms of inventory, the cost support for both manganese silicon and silicon iron was relatively strong [17]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and future attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the progress of winter storage [17]. - **Later Concerns**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [17]. 3.3 03 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: The output last week was 1.8439 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0271 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3191 million tons; the apparent demand was 2.0268 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0596 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.169 million tons. The long - process output was 1.5498 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.026 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3528 million tons; the short - process output was 0.2941 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.001 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0337 million tons. The long - process factory inventory was 1.1345 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.002 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.106 million tons; the short - process factory inventory was 0.2661 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0032 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0787 million tons. The social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1881 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1598 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0052 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1853 million tons; the total inventory was 4.3425 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1829 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.3451 million tons [20][23][26][30]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output last week was 2.9354 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0163 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.136 million tons; the apparent demand was 3.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0876 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0229 million tons. The social inventory was 2.967 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.106 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.6995 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 0.8052 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.029 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0018 million tons; the total inventory was 3.7722 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.135 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.7013 million tons [31][36]. - **Basis**: For rebar in Shanghai, the basis for January was 193 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 92 yuan/ton; for May, it was 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 77 yuan/ton; for October, it was 123 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 67 yuan/ton. For rebar in Beijing, the basis for January was 133 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 51 yuan/ton; for May, it was 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 17 yuan/ton; for October, it was 63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 7 yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the basis for January was - 18 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 66 yuan/ton; for May, it was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; for October, it was - 26 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton [39][44][48]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports)**: The total imported ore port inventory this week was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.956 million tons; the Australian ore inventory was 69.4126 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6865 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.7914 million tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 56.6956 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.255 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3277 million tons; the trade ore inventory was 103.6761 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6995 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.6771 million tons; the average daily port ore removal volume was 3.1506 million tons per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0161 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0915 million tons [51]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 7.1151 million tons; the inventory - to - sales ratio was 31.64, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.88; the daily consumption was 2.8004 million tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0054 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0554 million tons; the daily pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0003 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0129 million tons [62]. - **247 Steel Mills' Operating Rate/Profitability Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the iron - making utilization rate was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61 percentage points; the profitability rate was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55 percentage points [67]. - **Global Shipment (19 Ports)**: The total global shipment this week was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.277 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.027 million tons; the shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 27.846 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.407 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.707 million tons; the non - mainstream shipment was 7.159 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.32 million tons [71]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 9.126 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1215 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0772 million tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 0.922 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.011 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.011 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.422 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.085 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.029 million tons; the inventory of 4 ports was 1.782 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0255 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0952 million tons [109]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 27.578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3023 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.5825 million tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 10.397 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.034 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.149 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 0.8067 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0017 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.031 million tons; the inventory of 5 ports was 2.995 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of global iron ore shipments decreased slightly this week but remained at a high level. The end - of - year rush by the two major mines still supports the supply. The arrival volume decreased slightly but is at a high level in the same period of history. Based on the shipments, the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. [2] - The daily average hot metal output remained flat compared with last week, at a historically low level. A small number of steel mills resumed production, while some were still under maintenance, mostly for annual overhauls. The profitability of steel mills has improved, but due to the off - season and a large number of overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production is expected to be limited. [2] - This week, iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, mainly Australian ore. It is expected that with the arrival volume remaining at a moderately high level and the low off - season port clearance volume at the end of the year, iron ore will continue to accumulate, but the subsequent marginal accumulation space will be smaller than before. [2] - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is unlikely to lead to a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory on the downside. It is recommended to operate the 05 contract in a short - term range, with the range referring to 760 - 810. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The prices of various iron ore powders decreased compared with last week. For example, the price of Carajás fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 869 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 791 yuan/ton. The Platts Fe62% index decreased by 0.85 dollars/ton to 107.30 dollars/ton. [5] - **Variety Basis**: The report presents the 05 - contract basis data of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, Jinbuba fines, and Super Special fines over the years. [10][12][14] - **Spread between Varieties**: The report shows the spread data between different iron ore varieties such as PB fines - Jinbuba fines, PB fines - Super Special fines, and Carajás fines - PB fines over the years. [18][20][23] - **Spot and Forward Transactions**: The report provides the MA5 data of iron ore port spot transactions and forward transactions, as well as the import profit data of PB fines and Mac fines. [25][29][31] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The report shows the spread data between different contracts such as I01 - 05, I2205 - I2209, and I05 - 09 over the years. [33][34][39] - **Contract Positions**: The report presents the position data of the iron ore 09 - contract and 05 - contract over the years. [35][37] 3.2 Supply - **Global Shipments**: This week, the global iron ore shipments decreased by 128 tons to 3464.5 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 150.8 tons to 2814.7 tons. Among them, Australian shipments decreased by 102 tons to 1950.6 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 48.8 tons to 864.1 tons. [2] - **Four Major Mines' Shipments**: The shipments of the four major mines to China this week are as follows: Rio Tinto 601 tons (down 8 tons from last week), BHP 523 tons (up 51 tons from last week), Vale 615 tons (down 68 tons from last week), and FMG 276 tons (down 63 tons from last week). [50] - **Freight Rates**: The freight rates from Western Australia to Qingdao and from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao decreased compared with last week. For example, the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton to 8.9 dollars/ton. [58] - **Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume at 45 ports this week was 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons compared with last week. The arrival volume at 47 ports was 2790 tons, a decrease of 138 tons compared with last week. [2][65] - **Import Volume**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative national iron ore import volume was 114057 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1680 tons and a year - on - year increase rate of 1%. The import volume of Australian and Brazilian ore increased, while the import volume of non - mainstream ore decreased. [77] - **Domestic Iron Concentrate Production**: The iron concentrate production of 186 and 126 mining enterprises decreased compared with last week. For example, the iron concentrate production of 186 mining enterprises decreased by 1.4 tons to 43.4 tons. [87] 3.3 Demand - **Steel Mill Indicators**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 226.58 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons compared with last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points. The blast furnace start - up rate was 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points. The profitability rate of steel mills was 37.23%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points. [2][101] - **Port Clearance and Consumption**: The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports and the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills are presented in the report. [110][111] - **Sintering Proportion**: The sintering ore charging ratio of 114 steel enterprises was 73.82%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points compared with last week. The charging ratios of lump ore and pellet ore decreased. [118] - **Global Steel Production**: The report shows the production data of global, Indian, Russian, American, Turkish, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean crude steel and the production data of global, Chinese, Indian, EU27, Japanese, and Russian pig iron over the years. [119][124][128] 3.4 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of December 25, the inventory at 45 ports was 15858.66 tons, an increase of 346.03 tons compared with last week. The report also shows the inventory data of 45 ports + 247 steel mills + berthing vessels, 45 - port inventory by cargo rights, 45 - port berthing days, and 47 - port inventory. [2][145][148] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of steel mills increased by 136.24 tons to 8860.19 tons. The report also shows the inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio data of 247 steel mills. [2][155] - **15 - Port Inventory by Variety**: The report presents the inventory data of 15 ports by variety. [156]

Group 1: Market Overview - The main spot prices for iron ore at Rizhao Port are PB powder at 790 RMB/wet ton, mixed powder at 819 RMB/wet ton, and lump ore at 870 RMB/wet ton [1] - As of December 23, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 778.5 RMB/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [1] - The optimal delivery product is lump ore, with PB powder and lump ore warehouse costs at 845.7 RMB and 836.9 RMB respectively, resulting in a PB powder basis of 67.2 RMB/ton [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Daily iron water production is 2.2655 million tons, down 26,500 tons month-on-month; the blast furnace operating rate is 78.47%, down 0.16%; and the capacity utilization rate is 84.93%, down 1 percentage point [1] - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.28 million tons to 34.645 million tons, with Australia and Brazil's total shipments at 28.147 million tons, down 1.508 million tons [1] - The inventory at 45 ports is 155.1263 million tons, up 812,100 tons month-on-month, indicating a slight accumulation trend [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a pattern of accumulation due to high inventory levels, but the marginal accumulation space is expected to decrease [2] - The future price trend will depend on BHP negotiations, iron water trends, and steel mill restocking expectations [2] - Short-term strategies suggest a range trading approach for the May contract, with a reference range of 760-810 RMB [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by real - estate stimulus policy rumors, the black - metal sector rose today, with iron ore leading the increase, but coking coal still fell before the close. Steel spot trading was generally fair, with increased low - price speculation and futures - cash purchases, while rigid demand was average. This week, building materials production decreased rapidly, while plate production increased slightly. Steel inventories decreased overall, with social inventory decreasing faster than factory inventory. Affected by seasonality, rebar demand dropped significantly, but hot - rolled demand continued to rise. It is expected that pig iron production will continue to decline this week, but blast - furnace profits have recovered, reducing the drive for active production cuts. Recently, coal and coke prices dropped sharply, driving steel prices down, but in December, coal supply may shrink again, and steel mills have restocking expectations. With a structural shortage of iron ore PB powder, steel costs are supported. Although building materials demand declines seasonally, it is not weaker than the seasonal average, and manufacturing demand is still supported. Therefore, short - term steel prices will remain range - bound with raw materials, and the performance may be weaker than in November. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. - Unilateral trading is expected to maintain a slightly upward - trending oscillation. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot - rolled - coal ratio and the hot - rolled - rebar spread at high prices. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3250 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3150 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3280 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3190 yuan (unchanged) [4]. Market Research and Judgment - **Transaction Strategy**: - Unilateral: Maintain a slightly upward - trending oscillation [6]. - Arbitrage: Short the hot - rolled - coal ratio and the hot - rolled - rebar spread at high prices [6]. - Options: Wait and see [6]. - **Important Information**: - In November, the global blast - furnace steel mill pig iron production was 104.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.78 million tons (4.4% decline) and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. Excluding mainland China, the sample production of other countries and regions was 34.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.11 million tons (3.1% decline) and a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The average daily pig iron production of blast - furnace steel mills outside mainland China in November was 1.1401 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.001 million tons (0.09% increase) [7][8]. - China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year (in line with expectations, compared with 0.2% in the previous month), and the PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year (expected to decrease by 2%, compared with a 2.1% decrease in the previous month) [8]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes 31 figures showing various data such as steel prices, basis, spreads, and profits from 2021 to 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [9][11][12]...[49].

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3230 yuan (-20), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3140 yuan (-20), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3270 yuan (-10), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3200 yuan (-20) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The black metal sector continued its weak and volatile trend today, with coking coal and coke leading the decline. The overall spot trading volume of steel products was weak, and the speculative sentiment was poor, with low-price terminal purchases being the main activity [5] - According to last week's data from Steelhome, the production of the five major steel products decreased, with rebar production decreasing at a faster rate. The molten iron output continued to decline, and the total steel inventory accelerated its decline, with the decline rate of social inventory faster than that of factory inventory [5] - Affected by seasonality, the apparent demand for steel products accelerated its decline, with the decline in rebar demand greater than that of hot-rolled coils, while the demand for cold-rolled coils continued to rise supported by the manufacturing industry [5] - Due to the recent tightening of environmental inspections, it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline, but the blast furnace profit has recovered, and the driving force for active production cuts is limited [5] - Recently, affected by the significant increase in foreign coal supply and the change of the main contract, coking coal and coke fell sharply, driving steel prices down. However, in December, coal mine supply may shrink again due to environmental factors, and steel mills also have restocking expectations. The structural shortage of iron ore PB powder provides support for steel costs [5] - Recently, infrastructure demand has increased, and enterprise payment collections have improved, resulting in the apparent demand for steel products not being weaker than the seasonal average. Therefore, in the short term, steel prices will still maintain a range-bound trend following the fundamentals, but affected by seasonality, the performance may be weaker than in November [5] - The Politburo Standing Committee meeting will be held in December. Pay attention to the impact of macro news on the market. Continue to monitor coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a weak and volatile trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio and short the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread at high levels [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Group 4: Important Information - Starting from 00:00 on December 10, Taiyuan will launch a level II (orange alert) emergency response to heavy pollution weather [7][8] - In November 2025, China exported 818,000 vehicles. From January to November, the cumulative exports reached 7.331 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 25.7% [8] Group 5: Related Attachments - There are 29 figures in the report, including steel price trends, basis, spreads, and profit charts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [9][10][11]