Group 1 - UK inflation remained unexpectedly stable in September, with CPI rising 3.8% year-on-year, matching the previous value and falling below market expectations of 4% [1] - Core CPI for September increased by 3.5% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 3.6% and market expectations of 3.7% [1] - The stable inflation has led traders to increase bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England, with the market now expecting a 17 basis point cut by the end of December, equating to a 70% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - The two-year UK government bond yield fell by 10 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest level since August 2024, influenced by the rising expectations of rate cuts [4] - The British pound depreciated by 0.4% against the US dollar, trading at 1.3320 [4] Group 3 - The UK unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in August, the highest level since May 2021, contrary to expectations of stability [5] - Private sector wage growth slowed to 4.4%, below market expectations and marking the lowest level since the end of 2021, although still above the Bank of England's target of around 3% [5] - Bank of England Governor Bailey expressed concerns about the economy operating below potential and the ongoing weakness in the labor market [6]

2025年9月17日，美联储扔出个大消息——降息25个基点，把政策利率区间调到4%-4.25%。 这是自2024年12月以来第一次降息，也是8月刚换了新货币政策框架后的首秀。 本来不少人盼着能降50个基点，结果除了新上任的特朗普团队成员米兰，其他FOMC委员全投了25个基 点，市场直接懵了。 降息逻辑变了天 很多人可能没注意，这次降息和2024年9月那次，根本不是一回事。 去年9月降息时，鲍威尔还说是"再校准"，意思就是早有计划，趁着通胀预期下来了，主动调整帮经济 软着陆，就像提前规划好路线开车。 当天美东时间下午2点，降息消息一出来，标普500指数立马涨了0.5%，大家都觉得是利好。 可半小时后鲍威尔开新闻发布会，一开口就浇了盆冷水——他说这次降息是"风险管理式"操作，就是因 为担心劳动力市场走弱才动的，但没说以后还会接着降，甚至提到"等等看"还是合理策略。 这话一落地，美股直线往下掉，最大跌幅到了0.8%。 更有意思的是后半段，有记者问边缘人群失业率高的问题，鲍威尔突然补了句"25个基点只是开始，还 会有更多行动"，股市又立马反弹，最后小幅下跌收盘。 说实话，这种"一句话定涨跌"的场面，普通投资者真得小心 ...

美联储官员观点分歧中的降息倾向 美联储理事米兰和沃勒的观点颇具代表性，也凸显了美联储内部在降息问题上的思考与分歧。 近期，美联储的货币政策走向成为全球金融市场瞩目的焦点。CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储10 月降息25个基点的概率高达99.4%，维持利率不变的概率仅为0.6%；12月累计降息50个基点的概率为 98.6%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.9%。这一系列数据清晰地反映出市场对美联储再次降息的强烈预 期。 降息箭在弦上 10月28日至29日将召开下一次联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议。市场预计降息25个基点的概率高达 98%，联邦基金利率目标区间或降至4%—4.25%。 关于美联储后续的降息路径，投资者预期美联储将在10月议息会议上再次降息25个基点，此前因就业数 据疲软，美联储已在上月进行了今年首次降息。 北京时间10月16日，美联储理事米兰表示，美联储应该降息50个基点，但预计实际将降25个基点。米兰 认为，近期长期收益率的下降表明市场认为美联储降息是正确的决定，且与同事之间政策观点的分歧更 多在于降息的速度，而非最终的目标。米兰还预计2025年美国经济增长率在2%左右，同时指出美国经 济 ...

西姆库斯表示，"在本轮八次降息之后，可能还需要进一步行动"，并重申其支持"风险管理式降息"的理 念。他强调，货币政策需主动管理风险，"而当前风险显然偏向下行"。 西姆库斯指出，德国工业近期出现恶化迹象，而法国政治局势可能推动财政整合进程。他解释称，财政 整合通常意味着更低的经济增长前景，将进一步压制总需求。与此同时，工资增速正在放缓，这一趋 势"与央行判断一致"，并表明服务业动能出现减弱。 多位长期主张保留宽松选项的官员亦持类似观点，认为当前主要风险并非通胀过高，而是实际通胀可能 持续低于预测水平。在此背景下，维持政策灵活性、适时采取额外宽松措施被视为必要之举。 新华财经北京10月17日电欧洲央行管理委员会委员西姆库斯17日表示，面对日益增强的经济逆风，未来 数月"可能需要进一步降息"。他强调，当前增长与通胀的风险"都偏向下行"，货币政策应采取"风险管 理式"路径，以确保通胀不会跌破2%的中期目标。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

美联储10月维持利率不变的概率已从10.2%降至1.1%，而12月的利率路径也显示出明显的宽松倾向，累 计降息50个基点的概率达到94%。市场对美联储未来政策的预期正经历从"可能降息"到"几乎确定降 息"的转变过程。 支持这一预期的经济数据包括近期疲软的就业市场表现。9月私营部门就业数据显示就业人数减少3.2万 人，远低于预期的5.1万人。美联储在9月会议后的政策声明中对劳动力市场的描述与2024年9月会议时 的表述几乎一致，当时美联储开启了连续三次的降息周期。 美联储在9月会议中将此次降息定性为"风险管理式降息"，旨在应对潜在的经济下行风险。这一措辞与 美联储过去在面临经济不确定性时的表述方式相似，表明美联储正采取预防性措施应对经济放缓。 近期金融市场对美联储10月降息的预期持续升温，CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储10月降息25个基 点的概率已从9月30日的89.8%上升至10月14日的98.9%。这一变化反映出市场对美联储货币政策走向的 判断正趋于高度一致。 对于普通消费者而言，如果美联储如期降息，可能会带来贷款利率的下降，从而影响住房市场和消费信 贷。然而，这一政策调整的具体效果仍需观察后续经济数 ...

这种放量下跌的态势，让投资者心中不禁产生疑问：这究竟是行情的终点，还是"倒车接人"的良机？ 在A股跳水过程中，美股主要股指期货均小幅上涨，亚太其他主要股市亦多数上涨，日经225指数收盘更是创下历史新高，首次站上 45000点。 深度科技研究院院长张孝荣分析认为，这次跳水背后或有三大原因。 金融权重股集体走弱，主力资金大面积撤出连累大盘； 美联储降息利好兑现后的技术性回调；市场关键点位前释放心理压力，此时主力资金从进攻转为防御，有可能是为了下一步更大规模 的进攻。 美联储降息符合市场广泛预期，美联储主席鲍威尔提出的"风险管理式降息"也指向未来连续降息的前景仍有不确定性。 三大指数早盘小幅震荡走强，上证指数一度上涨0.6%，最高触及3899.96点，创下2015年8月以来的十年新高。 主要指数集体大幅跳水，上证指数一度跌近2%，最低下探至3801点，险失3800点关口。 全市场逾4300只个股下跌，沪深京三市全天成交额却高达3.167万亿元，较前一日放量逾7600亿元。 华金证券策略分析师邓利军统计指出，2005年以来美联储有18次降息操作，降息后短期市场偏震荡，T 5、T 30、T 90内上证上涨概率 分别为3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant surge in AI demand and its impact on the stock market, particularly in the technology and semiconductor sectors, while also addressing concerns about a potential "AI bubble" similar to the internet bubble of the late 1990s [1][7]. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced a notable rise, with major indices such as the Dow Jones increasing by over 100 points, the Nasdaq rising by more than 0.8%, and the S&P 500 gaining approximately 0.6% [1]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged by over 2%, indicating strong performance in the semiconductor sector [3]. Company Highlights - Nvidia's stock rose nearly 2%, with CEO Jensen Huang noting a significant increase in computing demand over the past six months [1][9]. - Other semiconductor companies also saw gains, including AMD (+6.14%), Micron Technology (+4.98%), and TSMC (+3.98%) [4]. - Dell Technologies experienced a surge of over 7% after raising its revenue and profit forecasts due to strong demand for AI infrastructure [4]. AI Demand and Industry Outlook - Huang emphasized that AI models are transitioning from simple problem-solving to complex reasoning, leading to exponential growth in computing demand [9][10]. - Nvidia plans to invest $100 billion in building a large-scale data center for OpenAI, which will require significant energy resources [11]. - Concerns were raised about whether industry leaders can secure enough power to support their ambitious plans, with Huang suggesting the need for new power generation capabilities outside the grid [11]. Market Sentiment and Risks - Analysts express caution regarding the concentration of investments in the AI sector and the potential risks associated with a market that may be overly excited [7][8]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has had limited immediate impact on the stock market, but prolonged uncertainty could affect market sentiment [8].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4%-4.25%, marking the beginning of a global liquidity easing cycle [1] - The rate cut is characterized as a "risk management cut" by Chairman Powell, aimed at balancing labor market risks and persistent inflation pressures [2] - The dot plot indicates an increase in rate cut expectations for 2025 from 2 to 3 times, while only one cut is expected in 2026-2027, with the final rate projected at 3.125% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - Hong Kong stocks are in a "shaking upward channel," with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.6% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 5.1% [4] - External capital is returning to Chinese assets, with structural opportunities in sectors like AI technology, consumer electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - Historical data shows a significant calendar effect, with the Hang Seng Index averaging a 1.6% increase in the five trading days following the National Day holiday over the past decade [4] Group 3: U.S. Market Dynamics - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock indices reached new highs, driven by a tech surge, particularly with Nvidia investing $5 billion in a partnership with Intel [7] - The derivatives market experienced a "gamma squeeze," leading to a surge in trading volume for the S&P 500 [7] - Small-cap stocks are showing signs of recovery, with the Russell 2000 index lagging behind the broader market, benefiting from eased short-term debt pressures [7] Group 4: Asset Allocation Trends - Gold holdings are showing a divergence between institutions and retail investors, with SPDR Gold Trust increasing by 1.8% week-on-week, while retail investors reduced holdings through SPDR Minishares [10] - Global ETF flows indicate a structural preference for stocks, with a net inflow of $92.97 billion into stock ETFs, led by technology and financial sectors [10][12] - Emerging markets, particularly China, are attracting significant capital, with a net inflow of $1.08 billion into Chinese stock ETFs [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has sparked mixed reactions among investors, with some optimistic about a bull market while others express concerns about a potential economic recession [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Analysis - Analysts from Manulife and Legg Mason describe the rate cut as a "risk management-style cut," highlighting the ongoing conflict between the labor market and inflation [3]. - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing opportunities and traps in a fluctuating market, rather than being swayed by news [3][4]. Group 2: Survival Strategies in Volatile Markets - Stocks face two perpetual challenges: increasing follow-the-trend trading and profit-taking, creating a psychological battle among investors [4]. - A personal anecdote illustrates that market fluctuations are not inherently risky; rather, the inability to discern the underlying intentions of capital movements poses the greatest risk [4]. Group 3: Insights from the Solar Industry - A notable market trend observed in August 2025 showed that despite strong performance in the bus sector, the struggling solar sector surged, challenging traditional notions of "value investing" [5]. - This indicates that stock price movements are often driven more by capital behavior than by earnings or valuations [5]. Group 4: Institutional Inventory as a Market Indicator - The concept of "institutional inventory" is introduced as a tool to penetrate market complexities, providing a quantitative view of institutional trading behavior [8][11]. - A comparison of stock performance based on institutional activity reveals that true risk lies in the withdrawal of institutional funds rather than price volatility [11]. Group 5: Post-Rate Cut Investment Strategies - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is expected to influence global capital flows, necessitating a focus on actual capital movements for individual stock operations [12]. - During periods of policy easing, institutions tend to frequently adjust their portfolios, making "institutional inventory" data particularly significant [12]. Group 6: Recommendations for Ordinary Investors - In an era of information overload, relying solely on news analysis is insufficient; more objective and quantitative tools are needed for decision-making [13]. - "Institutional inventory" serves as one of many quantitative tools that help differentiate between genuine institutional actions and retail investor trends, revealing that market fluctuations can present opportunities rather than threats [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - 4Q25 macro - tone is generally favorable for precious metals, but price volatility is expected to increase. Market expectations of interest - rate cut rhythm, economic outlook interpretations, and supply bottlenecks of platinum and palladium will drive price fluctuations and asset performance differentiation [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, the contradiction lies in whether macro - level benefits can offset micro - level demand weakness and supply contradictions. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely between the bottom range provided by macro - level easing expectations and the top range formed by industrial fundamentals pressure [2][45]. - The core drivers of black commodities will revolve around policy uncertainty and demand effectiveness. Prices are supported in the early stage but face significant downward risks in the middle and later stages of the quarter [3][57]. - The core contradiction of energy and chemical commodities is whether macro - level easing expectations can offset the fundamental pressure at the bottom of the industrial cycle. 4Q25 will be a bottom - grinding process [4][76]. - For agricultural products, export - country control measures may create artificial supply shortages and upward price risks, while import - country procurement rhythms, quota management, and domestic substitution policies form downward price pressure. La Nina - induced supply contraction expectations and current supply pressures and weak global macro - demand will drive price trends [5][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks after the Interest - Rate Cut "Boot Drops" - **Monetary Policy Path Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut in September started a new round of easing, but the rhythm, depth, and end - point of the subsequent path are uncertain. Hawkish risks (slower - than - expected rate cuts) will push up the US dollar index and real yields of US Treasuries, negatively affecting precious metals. Dovish risks (faster - than - expected rate cuts) will be a major positive for all precious metals [13][23][26]. - **Economic "Landing" Form Risk**: The market will sway among "soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery scenarios in 4Q25. A "soft landing" is beneficial for the precious - metal sector as a whole. A "hard landing" will lead to significant differentiation within the sector, with gold rising and silver, platinum, and palladium potentially falling. Premature recovery trading may cause gold to face pressure while silver and platinum may benefit [29][30][31]. - **Supply - Side and Geopolitical Risk**: Supply - side risks mainly affect platinum and palladium due to their concentrated production in South Africa and Russia. Any production interruption in these countries can cause price surges. Geopolitical risks will increase the volatility of gold and silver, with gold having a more sustainable safe - haven premium [33][35]. - **Structural Market Dynamic Change Risk**: The sustainability of central - bank gold - buying demand is in doubt. The "platinum - for - palladium" substitution in the automotive industry is a long - term negative for palladium and a positive for platinum. Speculative funds in the precious - metal market are profit - seeking and volatile, which can amplify price fluctuations [37][42][44]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Level Benefits and Industrial Weakness Risks - **Macro - Economic Narrative Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut provides support for non - ferrous metals, but different economic scenarios ("soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery) will have different impacts on non - ferrous metals. A "soft landing" is beneficial for copper, aluminum, and lithium to different extents. A "hard landing" will hit all industrial non - ferrous metals. Premature recovery trading will bring a "Davis double - click" for copper and aluminum [45][46][47]. - **Sino - Foreign Policy - Level Risk**: China's "anti - involution" policies may affect the supply of polysilicon, industrial silicon, and potentially copper and aluminum. Trade frictions, political instability in Guinea, and lithium - mine supply risks in Africa also pose threats to non - ferrous metals [50][52]. - **Supply - Side Bottleneck Risk**: Global copper - mine supply is tight, which is a strong support for copper prices. The resumption time of some lithium mines in China is uncertain, which creates two - way risks for lithium prices [53][55]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Policy Game and Demand Downturn Risks - **Downstream Demand Structural Differentiation and Total Slowdown Risk**: The real - estate industry's weakness suppresses the demand for construction steel and the entire black - commodity chain. The manufacturing industry provides support for plate - type steel, but its demand may face challenges in 4Q25. Infrastructure investment may also slow down, affecting the demand for construction steel [58][59][60]. - **Supply - Side Policy Risk**: The implementation of the "flat - control" policy for crude - steel production is uncertain. Strict implementation will benefit steel prices but harm raw - material prices, while non - implementation or under - implementation will lead to supply - surplus pressure on steel prices [66]. - **Raw - Material Supply - Side Structural Risk**: Iron - ore supply is expected to increase seasonally, which may lead to price declines. Coking - coal supply, especially for high - quality coking coal, is tight, which supports coking - coal and coke prices and squeezes steel - mill profits [70][71]. - **Inventory and Market Structural Risk**: Steel inventories face a cyclical inflection point. If post - holiday demand is weak, it will lead to passive inventory accumulation and price declines. Iron - ore port inventories may accumulate, which will pressure iron - ore prices [74]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals: Long - Term Capacity Clearance and Prolonged Bottom - Grinding Risks - **Geopolitical and Supply - Side Seasonal Risk**: Geopolitical risks, such as the situation in the Red Sea and OPEC+ production policies, can affect oil prices. In winter, natural - gas supply shortages in Iran may increase methanol prices, and LPG supply may also be affected [77][81]. - **Inventory Level and Industrial - Chain Internal Profit Risk**: The global crude - oil market is expected to enter a stocking phase in 4Q25, which may put downward pressure on oil prices. High inventories of some chemicals, such as methanol and LPG, will suppress their prices. Profit - distribution contradictions in the chemical industrial chain are intensifying [83][84][87]. - **Structural Over - Capacity and Industry Profit - Cycle Risk**: The chemical industry is in a long - term over - capacity situation. Polyolefins, methanol, and LPG are severely affected. The process of capacity clearance is slow, and the low - price, low - profit industry pattern will persist [89][90]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Risks under Policy and Weather Interference - **Key Countries' Policy Risk**: Export - control measures of major agricultural - product exporters can cause price surges, while import - country policies, such as China's procurement and quota management, can limit price increases [92]. - **Terminal Demand Weakness Risk**: Global economic slowdown weakens consumer purchasing power, affecting the demand for cotton, oils, sugars, and feed raw materials. China's internal demand also has structural risks, and changes in bio - fuel policies can affect the demand for corn and vegetable oils [98][100][103]. - **Global Supply Cycle Risk**: The concentrated listing of Northern - Hemisphere autumn - harvest crops brings short - term supply pressure. The long - term supply situation is affected by policies and climate [91]. - **Global Climate Risk**: The evolution towards La Nina poses risks to the upcoming Southern - Hemisphere sowing season and Southeast - Asian production [91].