1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean oil price fluctuated widely recently. Given trade uncertainties, it's advisable to consider buying out - of - the - money call options and a long position in the bean oil - meal ratio. The Y2601 contract long positions could be reduced and observed [3]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in Canadian rapeseed imports. If so, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. A light long position can be taken [3][4]. - Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory build - up period, but the production increase expectation slows down in September - October. The price has support below. A light long position can be considered [4]. - The soybean meal price is expected to decline. Short positions or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [5]. - The rapeseed meal price is expected to adjust downward. The market is waiting for the results of China - Canada negotiations [6]. - The corn and corn starch prices are under pressure. Short positions can be held cautiously, and certain option strategies can be considered [7]. - The soybean No.1 price is weak. Short positions can be continued to be held [8]. - The peanut price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by the expected increase in production and the cost decrease [9]. - The live pig price is weak. After the confirmation of capacity reduction, long positions in the 2601 contract can be considered. For cautious investors, a long - near and short - far spread strategy can be held [10]. - The egg price has fallen to a historical low. It's advisable to avoid short - selling blindly. Aggressive investors can buy the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 11 | Domestic new soybeans are gradually on the market, and the supply is increasing. | 3800 - 3830 yuan/ton | 3950 - 4000 yuan/ton | Sideways with a downward bias | Hold short positions | | | Soybean No.2 11 | Uncertainty in Sino - US trade, supply expectation is changeable. | 3600 - 3630 yuan/ton | 3770 - 3800 yuan/ton | Declining | Try short positions lightly | | | Peanut 11 | Expected increase in production, cost reduction, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support. | 7500 - 7600 yuan/ton | 8020 - 8162 yuan/ton | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Weak fundamentals, continuous inventory build - up. | 8260 - 8300 yuan/ton | 8500 - 8530 yuan/ton | Wide - range fluctuation | Wait and see | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, alternative supply, and de - stocking expectation. | 9500 - 9600 yuan/ton | 10300 - 10333 yuan/ton | Sideways with an upward bias | Light long positions | | | Palm oil 01 | Poor production performance of Malaysian palm oil, possible weakening of exports. | 9200 - 9208 yuan/ton | 9700 - 9736 yuan/ton | Sideways with an upward bias | Light long positions | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | Uncertainty in Sino - US trade, supply expectation is changeable. | 2930 - 2950 yuan/ton | 3090 - 3100 yuan/ton | Declining | Try short positions lightly | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, poor cost - performance, and weak consumption. | 2365 - 2400 yuan/ton | 2572 - 2584 yuan/ton | Sideways with a downward bias | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Weak fundamentals, price under pressure. | 2100 - 2120 yuan/ton | 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | Cost reduction, supply is slightly loose, price follows the downward trend. | 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton | 2580 - 2590 yuan/ton | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Live pig 11 | Feed price rebounds, strong expectation of capacity reduction. | 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton | 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton | Bottom - hunting | Turn to wait and see | | | Egg 11 | Capacity pressure and consumption peak season expectation. | 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton | 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton | Bottom - hunting | Buy at a low price | [13] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For most varieties, it's recommended to wait and see. For the 01 soybean meal - 05 soybean meal spread, a long - near and short - far strategy can be considered, with a target of 300 - 400. For the live pig 1 - 3 and egg 10 - 1 spreads, a long - near and short - far strategy can be considered at a low price [14][15]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: For the 01 soybean oil - palm oil spread, a short - position operation can be considered; for the 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, a long - position operation can be considered; for the 01 bean oil - meal ratio, a long - position operation can be considered [15]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including soybeans, oils, protein feeds, energy products, and livestock products [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and delivery months, including CNF prices, arrival - at - port duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and operating rates of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, such as the port soybean inventory, oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and the operating rates of soybean and rapeseed oil mills [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Live Pig**: It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs, including prices, production costs, profits, slaughter data, etc [21][25]. - **Egg**: It provides the daily and weekly data of eggs, including prices, supply, demand, and profits [22][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides a large number of charts to track the fundamentals of livestock, oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, including production, consumption, inventory, price spreads, and basis of various varieties [26][37][45] 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility charts of various varieties and the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio charts of corn options [85][87][88] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the warehouse receipt situation charts of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [90][91][92]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view for the agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal and palm oil, is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term and "oscillating" in the medium - term [5][7]. - For soybean meal, the market is affected by the prospects of Sino - US trade relations and a weak domestic fundamental situation with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a negative basis pattern [5]. - For palm oil, the short - term market is driven by sentiment. Although there are factors like rainfall in East Malaysia and stable export data, the peak production period in the producing areas restricts the upside. The long - term demand may be supported by Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Reference View**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: The market is sensitive to changes in Sino - US trade relations. Domestically, the trading logic has shifted to a weak fundamental situation with oil mills having inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, leading to a weak short - term futures price [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7] - **Reference View**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: After the supplementary increase in Malaysian palm oil prices, the increase has narrowed. Although rainfall in East Malaysia may disrupt supply in the short - term and export data is stable, the peak production period in the producing areas restricts the upside. Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough may support long - term demand. The short - term market is driven by sentiment, resulting in high - level oscillations of palm oil futures prices [7].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant trading activity on September 17, 2025, with a total turnover of HKD 360.28 billion and a net inflow of HKD 9.44 billion from southbound funds [1][7] - The three major indices in Hong Kong rose, driven by macroeconomic factors, including a high probability (96%) of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the market [1][7] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, marked by President Trump's extension of the TikTok ban, positively influenced market sentiment, contributing to the rise in Hong Kong stocks [1][7] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.78% to 26,908.39, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4.22% to 6,334.24, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed by 2.24% to 9,596.77 [4][7] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.61%, and the Wind All A Index gained 0.67% [4][7] - Among the sectors, the computer industry led with a 4.61% increase, followed by retail trade (+4.36%) and home appliances (+4.30%), while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.93%) and building materials (-1.43%) lagged [4][7] Industry Themes - The Hong Kong government announced the establishment of an AI efficiency enhancement group to promote AI development, which is expected to benefit the computer sector [7] - The report anticipates three potential directions for the Hong Kong market to reach new highs: the growth of AI technology and new consumption, continued inflow of southbound funds, and improved global liquidity from potential U.S. rate cuts [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: None - **Hold (★★☆)**: None - **Weak Buy (★☆☆)**: None - **Neutral (White Star)**: None - **Weak Sell (★☆☆)**: None - **Sell (★★☆)**: None - **Strong Sell (★★★)**: None Core Views - The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino-US trade relations, with falling Brazilian soybean premiums and overall weak performance of soybean-related products [2][3][4]. - In the short term, it is necessary to verify the market's expectation of improved trade relations and pay attention to policy guidance and market performance of new crops [2][3][4]. - In the long term, supported by overseas biodiesel policies, soybean and palm oils can be considered for buying on dips [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean (Domestic) - Domestic soybean positions increased, and prices hit new phased lows. The expected opening price of new soybeans is low, around 1.85 - 1.9 yuan per catty [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - US soybean oil briefly rebounded and then oscillated downward. The domestic oil - meal ratio reached a phased high, with soybean meal weaker than soybean oil [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Affected by the expectation of eased Sino - US economic and trade relations, futures prices fell. Weekly soybean crushing is expected to be around 2.4 million tons, and soybean meal inventory is expected to be around 1.2 million tons at the end of September. The market may continue to oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products fell today, with the oil - meal ratio continuing to rise. The expectation of increased soybean imports may put pressure on rapeseed meal prices, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to continue to rebound [6]. Corn - Dalian corn futures remained weak. Spot prices varied by region, with Xinjiang having high prices, Northeast remaining firm, and Shandong being weak [7]. Pig - Pig spot prices were weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The goal of reducing pig production capacity by about 1 million heads was discussed. The market is currently recommended for observation [8]. Egg - Egg futures adjusted slightly downward, while spot prices were slightly stronger. It is recommended to consider going long on far - month contracts for next year's first half and pay attention to short - position exits in near - month contracts [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the price trend of oils and fats is the supply - demand game in the origin under policy guidance. Domestic drivers are limited, and future price movements rely on favorable factors from the origin. The short - term market may maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [2][3]. - It is not recommended to short oils and fats due to obvious international market support. There may be an opportunity to focus on the long - P1 short - P5 spread trading of palm oil [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - **Palm oil**: Drought in the first half of the year led to an early entry into the production - reduction period in the origin. Malaysia's inventory pressure is expected to ease, while Indonesia's B40 policy and slow production recovery limit export growth, with subsequent supply expected to be tight. India's demand supports global palm oil consumption [2]. - **Soybean oil**: The US biodiesel policy supports US soybean crushing. The year - on - year decline in supply tightens the US soybean balance sheet. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations may lead to a potential shortage in China's soybean imports [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: There is limited speculation on origin weather recently. Sino - Canadian relations are the focus, but rapeseed oil supply can be supplemented through other channels, and the opening of the Australian rapeseed import window may make up for part of the Canadian rapeseed shortfall [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestion - **Basis strategy**: Consider using accumulated option purchases to reduce basis pricing risks in combination with the oscillation range, and view the short - term basis as weakening [22]. - **Spread strategy**: Consider a long - P1 short - P5 spread trading when the P1 - 5 spread is in the range of (200, 230) [22]. - **Hedging and arbitrage strategy**: Short the soybean - palm oil 2601 spread when it is in the range of (- 1040, - 940) [22]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestion - Price range forecasts for monthly oils and fats: soybean oil 8200 - 9000, rapeseed oil 9700 - 10300, palm oil 9200 - 9900 [25]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides current price, price change, and other data for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as information on inter - month and inter - variety spreads [25][26][27][28]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Floods in Sabah, Malaysia, and multiple institutions indicating that Malaysia will enter the production - reduction period early; SPPOMA's production data showing a month - on - month decline [34][36]. - **Negative information**: MPOB report showing lower - than - expected exports; USDA's US soybean yield being higher than expected; Some state legislators opposing the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions [34]. - **Spot trading information**: Palm oil trading improved slightly, soybean oil trading declined, and rapeseed oil had basically no trading [31]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 15: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data [36]. - September 20: CFTC agricultural product position report [38]. - High - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil [38]. - Progress on the decision regarding the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions in the US [38]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: Palm oil showed a pattern of oscillating downward and then stabilizing and rebounding this week. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil generally followed palm oil. Palm oil's important profit - making positions were cautious, with price fluctuations narrowing and open interest decreasing. Soybean oil's open interest decreased overall but stabilized recently. Rapeseed oil prices rose, open interest increased significantly, and the basis was small [36]. - **Spread structure**: The near - month term structure of oils and fats was steeper this week. The P1 - 5 and Y1 - 5 spreads were mainly in a consolidation state, while the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread strengthened significantly. Oils and fats remained in a backwardation structure [38][39]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of major oils and fats contracts was mainly in a consolidation state this week, and the basis was expected to remain weak in the short term due to high domestic inventory and weak downstream demand [43]. - **Inter - variety spread structure**: The rapeseed - palm oil 01 and rapeseed - soybean oil 01 spreads strengthened this week, while the soybean - palm oil spread continued to decline [45]. - **Foreign market**: The domestic market mainly followed the foreign market's oscillation and consolidation. CBOT soybean oil management funds reduced their net positions, while producers/ traders/ processors/ users slightly increased their positions [47]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The POGO spread remains at a high level, and the BOHO spread, although declining, is still positive, indicating high production costs for bio - fuels [50]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the import profit inversion has slightly narrowed, but due to high inventory and general domestic demand, the attitude towards new ship purchases is expected to be cautious [52]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's palm oil is expected to enter the production - reduction season earlier. The inventory pressure will be further relieved, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline [54]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm oil**: Trade - purchase willingness is low, with monthly purchases of about 200,000 tons in September and October. Supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and inventory is expected to further decline [55]. - **Soybean oil**: Soybean arrivals in September and October are still high, with a risk of raw - material overstocking. The soybean crushing rate is expected to maintain at 50% - 60% in the fourth quarter, but soybean oil supply may decrease significantly from December [55]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils and fats is large, and demand is weak. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may drive catering demand, overall terminal demand is still expected to be weaker than last year [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats rose during the day. The pre - holiday stockpiling before the double festivals supported the oil prices to some extent. There were strong expectations of a consumption peak season and decreasing supply in the fourth quarter, but the high domestic inventory and weak spot market sentiment limited the increase of soybean oil prices. For the Y2601 contract, it was advisable to hold long positions, with support at 8300 - 8330 yuan/ton and resistance at 8460 - 8500 yuan/ton. Buying out - of - the - money call options was also recommended. For rapeseed oil, due to the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseeds, the market expected a reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. The increase in imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia could partly make up for the supply. Palm oil was in a seasonal inventory - building period, but the export demand improved, and there was an expectation of an increase in the biodiesel blending ratio [3][4]. - **Feed Grains**: For corn and corn starch, the external market had some factors supporting the prices, but the expected high yield in the Northern Hemisphere and inventory build - up in the US would limit the increase. In the domestic market, it was a game between low channel inventory and seasonal pressure. It was recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - **Grains and Beans**: The price of soybeans No. 1 continued to decline. There was an expectation of a good harvest of new soybeans, and with the increase in supply, it was advisable to hold short positions. For peanuts, there was an expectation of an increase in production, and the seasonal supply pressure affected the prices, but the pre - holiday stockpiling had a certain supporting effect [8][9]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The price of live pigs fluctuated weakly. There was a strong expectation of capacity reduction, and it was recommended to hold long positions. The price of eggs fluctuated and was at a low level. It was recommended to buy at low prices considering the consumption peak season [10]. Summary by Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: Soybeans No. 1 and No. 2 were expected to be bearish or in adjustment. Peanuts were in an adjustment phase, and it was advisable to short lightly. Soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were expected to be bullish, and it was recommended to hold long positions or buy at low prices [13]. - **Protein Feed**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal were in different market conditions. Soybean meal was expected to be weakly bearish, and it was advisable to wait and see. Rapeseed meal was expected to be bullish, and it was recommended to buy at low prices [13]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch were under pressure, and it was recommended to hold short positions [13]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Live pigs were expected to rebound, and it was recommended to hold long positions. Eggs were in a process of finding a bottom, and it was advisable to buy at low prices [13]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For some varieties like soybean meal 3 - 5, it was recommended to conduct positive spreads. For others, it was mostly recommended to wait and see [14][15]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For some oil - related spreads, different strategies such as shorting, going long, or waiting and seeing were recommended. For the oil - meal ratio of soybeans, it was recommended to go long [15]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provided spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oils and fats, protein feeds, energy and by - products, and livestock and poultry [16]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: Included import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided inventory and operating rate data of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [20]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Showed the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil [20]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rate and inventory [21]. 3. Livestock and Poultry - **Daily Data**: Included daily data of live pigs and eggs, such as prices and price changes [22][23]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided weekly key data of live pigs and eggs, including supply, demand, cost, and profit data [24][26]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock and Poultry**: Included charts of live pig and egg futures and spot prices, as well as related data such as piglet prices and chicken苗 prices [27][31][33] - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: Included charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanut production, inventory, trading volume, and spreads [36][46][55] - **Feed**: Included charts of corn, corn starch, rapeseed - related, and soybean meal - related data, such as prices, inventory, and spreads [61][69][73][80] Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils and Fats The report provided charts of historical volatility of various varieties and options trading volume and open interest data of corn [95][96][97] Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils and Fats The report provided charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [98][99][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including protein meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the current supply - demand situation, cost factors, and future expectations of each product [3][5][8][11][14][17][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Condition**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rose slightly due to trade optimism and recent drought. Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the East China basis at 01 - 110 remaining unchanged. The downstream inventory days increased by 0.42 days to 9.22 days last week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were almost unchanged week - on - week and at a high level in recent years year - on - year [3]. - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the undervaluation of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and Brazilian planting season trading, but it also faces pressure from the global protein raw material supply surplus, potential expansion of Brazilian planting area, and possible short - term supply surplus if Sino - US relations ease [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost of imported soybeans has maintained a weak and stable trend recently. The domestic soybean meal market has high - level提货. It is expected that the spot side may start to destock in September, supporting the oil mill's crushing profit. The soybean meal should be mainly operated in a range - bound manner, waiting for a driving factor to choose a direction [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and the output decreased by 3.17% month - on - month. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to reach 753 million tons. The price of edible oils including palm oil is expected to be firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand. On Tuesday, the three major domestic oils were strong, with stable demand from importing countries, low inventory in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia providing continuous positive factors [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the price center of oils. Oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose current supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be in a medium - term upward trend. With the current high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization [8]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 5547 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The sugar yield and sugar content in Brazil's central - southern region in August decreased compared to the same period in 2024 [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both the domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. The domestic sugar price is expected to continue to decline, and if Brazil's sugar production continues to increase from August to October, the domestic sugar price may reach a new low [11]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 13895 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. The开机率 of the downstream textile industry has increased but is still lower than the same period in previous years. The domestic cotton inventory is at a low level, and the US cotton has a high excellent rate and a normal harvest rate [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the consumption peak season approaching, the downstream开机率 is increasing, but the inventory is low and there is an expected increase in production in the long - term. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate [14]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.07 yuan to 3.74 yuan/jin. The supply is sufficient, and the market demand is stable [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply base is still large, and there is a large amount of cold - stored eggs. After a short - term increase, the spot price may fall back. However, after the large - scale culling of laying hens, the supply pressure decreases. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions in the far - month contracts when there is a large increase in positions after a price decline [17]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.17 yuan to 13.19 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it decreased by 0.13 yuan to 12.74 yuan/kg. The demand is average, and the slaughter volume is stable. The pig price is expected to continue to be weak [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The planned slaughter volume is large in September, but there are potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state reserves. The spot price may fluctuate in a narrow range. The futures price has fallen continuously, and it is not cost - effective to short further. Pay attention to the possibility of a rebound due to policies and consumption, and short - sell after the rebound. The far - month reverse spread strategy continues [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Egg (Far - month Contracts) [1][9] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral (Wait - and - See)**: Soybean, Corn, Pork, Egg (Near - month Contracts) [1][2][7][8][9] - **Rebound Potential**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1][4] Core Views - The market is in a complex situation with various factors affecting different agricultural products, including weather, trade relations, supply - demand dynamics, and policies. Short - term trends are often influenced by new product listings, policy guidance, and short - term weather changes, while long - term trends are related to supply - demand fundamentals and industrial policies [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Commodity Soybean - Domestic soybeans are in a low - level oscillation, waiting for new soybeans to enter the market. Market expects a good harvest. Imported soybeans' supply is uncertain due to Sino - US trade relations. Short - term focus is on new soybeans' policy and market performance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of September 14, US soybean's good - excellent rate was 63%, harvest rate was 5%, both in line with expectations, and the good - excellent rate continued to decline slightly. Future two - week weather in major US soybean - producing areas has less rain and higher temperature. Sino - US agricultural trade has not resumed. Domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory is rising, and soybean imports from July to November are over 10 million tons per month, with sufficient supply in Q4. The market may oscillate in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil continued to rebound. Domestically, traditional manufacturing upgrading makes industrial products strong; overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates. In Malaysia, excessive rainfall in Sarawak may affect production, but export demand is weak, leading to high inventory. Overseas palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle in Q4, and domestic demand is strong in Q4. Long - term biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US support prices, so consider buying on dips [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed oil is strong while rapeseed meal is weak. As of September 12, coastal rapeseed inventory dropped to 74,000 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory also declined. Canadian statistics will release production data. Rapeseed futures prices are expected to oscillate with a slow upward trend [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to decline slightly after a week of decline. Spot prices are differentiated before the new corn harvest. US corn's good - excellent rate was 67% as of September 14, higher than expected, and harvest rate was 7%, lower than expected. Corn may oscillate before and after the new grain starts trading, and may be weak at the bottom after the new grain purchase enthusiasm fades [7] Pork - Pork spot prices hit a new low this year, and the futures market is weak. Supply pressure is high in the second half of the year, and the fundamentals are weak. Monitor the meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on pork production capacity regulation and currently adopt a wait - and - see approach [8] Egg - Egg futures increased in positions and declined, with far - month contracts being stronger. Spot prices are rising in the seasonal rebound window. The industry needs to further reduce production capacity. Newly - hatched chickens' pressure may decrease by the end of the year, and the production capacity is expected to reach its peak in Q4. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for H1 next year and focus on short - position funds' exit in near - month contracts [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. The tight situation in Southeast Asia has quickly eased with the arrival of the production season, but the high output at the beginning of the season has raised concerns about over - exhausting subsequent production. With strong expected exports, inventory accumulation will be slow. The Indonesian B40 policy has been well - implemented, which may support consumption. Domestic near - month imports are expected to decline year - on - year, with little supply - demand contradiction [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The y2601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Overseas, US soybean planting area is down, but the yield per unit is up due to good conditions, and the bearish factors are mostly digested. Brazilian selling pressure has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, but it will turn tight from the fourth quarter [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The Ol601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Globally, the inventory pressure of rapeseed is limited in 2024/25, but the price may be suppressed in 2025/26. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but future supply is expected to tighten [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Southeast Asian Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures prices were mainly in a weak oscillation this week, with the center of gravity moving slightly down [15]. - **Malaysian Data**: As of the end of August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.18% to 2 million tons, production in August rose by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and exports decreased by 0.2% to 1.28 million tons. From September 1 - 10, exports decreased, and production in the south decreased [19]. - **Indonesian Data**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.6 million tons, up nearly 50% from May, and production was 5.29 million tons, up 30.62% year - on - year. The inventory in June decreased by 12.76% to 2.53 million tons. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in September [19]. - **Indian Market**: India lowered the import tariff of crude edible oils in May. Imports increased in June - July. Future imports are expected to remain high for festival stocking, but the import variety structure may change [31]. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, CBOT soybean futures rose after oscillation. The US soybean yield per unit is expected to be 53.5 bushels per acre, and the production will be 4.301 billion bushels. The carry - over inventory is up by 10 million bushels [39][40]. - **Crop Conditions**: As of September 7, the soybean pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 22%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 64%. As of September 9, about 22% of the soybean - producing areas were affected by drought [40][46]. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Production Forecast**: The USDA's August report slightly increased the production forecast for South America in 2024/25. Brazil's production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons [73]. - **Export Situation**: Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong due to the extension of Sino - US tariffs [72][73]. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Supply Situation**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. In 2025/26, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. China has imposed anti - dumping deposit policies on Canadian rapeseed, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter [83]. - **Production Forecast**: Canada is expected to produce 19.937 million tons of rapeseed in 2025/26, and the EU is expected to produce 18.84 million tons in 2025/26 [91]. Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: This week, the three major domestic oils maintained an oscillating pattern. Palm and soybean oils declined slightly, while rapeseed oil was basically flat [111]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: Palm oil inventory accumulation will be slow, and the p2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean oil supply will turn tight from the fourth quarter, and the y2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [112][113]. - **Production and Consumption**: In the 36th week, the actual soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 437,700 tons. As of September 5, the rapeseed - pressing volume in southern coastal factories was 29,000 tons. This week, the national key oil - mill palm oil trading volume was 13,833 tons [115][116]. - **Cost - Profit**: The import cost and import profit of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report [131][135][136]. - **Inventory**: As of September 8, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.4996 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% from last week and an increase of 22.24% year - on - year [139].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for both soybean meal and palm oil is "weak with fluctuations", and the medium - term outlook is "fluctuating". The divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue until the Sino - US trade relationship improves. [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The USDA report's reduction of the US soybean yield per unit did not change the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, having limited impact on domestic soybeans. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue. In the short - term, the price of soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate. Factors also include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. [5][7] For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [6][7][8] - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the energy attribute of palm oil has taken a back seat, and the trading logic has reverted to the weak industrial chain. As the barometer of the vegetable oil market, with other varieties still fluctuating around trade themes, the industrial chain environment of palm oil has weakened, and the market sentiment decline has led to an overall weakening of palm oil futures prices. Factors also involve biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. [8][7] For Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [7] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [7]