Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming important economic data and events for the week, including the New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the US, as well as key indicators from the Eurozone and Japan [2][3][4]. - Recent data shows a decline in US consumer inflation expectations for the first time since 2024, with the one-year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% in May [4][8]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% year-on-year in May, while core CPI rose by 2.8%, reflecting the impact of high tariff policies on domestic prices [4][8]. Group 2 - The US household net worth decreased for the first time in 2023, dropping by $1.6 trillion to $169.3 trillion, a decline of 0.9% [4][8]. - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index improved to 0.2 in June, better than the previous value of -8.1 and the expected -6 [4][8]. - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.2% in Q1, which was better than the initial estimate of a 0.7% decline, exceeding economists' expectations [4][8]. Group 3 - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 1.9 for the week ending June 7, consistent with the four-week moving average [5][10]. - The German economic activity index fell significantly, with the WAI index dropping to -0.5 for the week ending June 8 [11]. - The US Redbook retail sales growth rate slightly decreased to 4.7% year-on-year for the week ending June 7, down from 4.9% the previous week [14]. Group 4 - The US mortgage rates saw a slight decline, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.84% as of June 12, down from 6.85% the previous week [16]. - Initial jobless claims in the US remained unchanged at 248,000 for the week ending June 7, while continuing claims rose significantly to 1.956 million [21]. - The RJ/CRB commodity price index increased to 309.9 on June 13, reflecting a 3.0% rise from the previous week [24]. Group 5 - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have marginally eased, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.491 from 0.336 [28]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained relatively loose, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -24.5 basis points [30]. - The high-yield corporate bond spread in the US remained low, with a spread of 3.08 basis points as of June 13 [32].

Market Overview - Global markets are dominated by geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Israel-Iran situation, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets like oil and gold, with Brent crude rising by 9% to $75.18 per barrel and gold surpassing $3,452 per ounce[4] - The VIX index has rebounded, indicating increased market volatility, while A-shares have shown a decline in price but an increase in trading volume, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bonds: Maintain a focus on leverage and duration strategies supported by loose monetary policy, while closely monitoring central bank liquidity operations and U.S. CPI data[5] - Overseas equities: Overweight non-U.S. market assets, such as Hong Kong and South Korean stocks, to capitalize on a weaker dollar and resilient fundamentals[5] - Commodities: Overall underweight due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on specific commodities like oil that may experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions[7] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Economic Indicators - The Chinese Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded a slight increase to 50.30, indicating a marginal improvement but a significant drop from the March peak of 54.75, suggesting ongoing economic expansion challenges[40] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) expectations have reached new lows, indicating persistent price pressures at the production level, compounded by two consecutive months of negative CPI growth, reflecting weak consumer demand[49] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased by 13.1% to 1.341 trillion yuan, indicating heightened investor participation and a favorable liquidity environment for market valuation recovery[59] - The current valuation of A-shares is near historical averages, with the CSI 800's price-to-earnings ratio at the 48th percentile and price-to-book ratio at the 61st percentile, reflecting cautious optimism in economic fundamentals[64]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, the previous trading day saw declines in major indices, but with increased trading volume. Given current policies and market conditions, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" on dips [2][4]. - In the bond market, the central bank's liquidity injection maintains a positive attitude, and short - term bond market trends are expected to be volatile. In the long - term, with weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [8]. - In the precious metals market, due to lower - than - expected US inflation data, the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year has increased, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, especially silver, and go long on dips [9][12]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum may rise first and then fall, zinc has a large downward risk, and lead is expected to be weak [14][15][16][17]. - In the black building materials market, steel products are affected by factors such as weak demand and tariff policies, and attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and glass and soda ash are expected to be weak [27][29][30]. - In the energy and chemical market, rubber is affected by different views on supply and demand, and it is recommended to operate neutrally. Crude oil has reached a short - selling range, and methanol, urea, etc. have their own supply - demand characteristics and trading suggestions [39][40][43]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of pigs, eggs, etc. have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to different supply - demand situations [55][56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, etc. declined, with a total trading volume of 1467.2 billion yuan, an increase of 195.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The 5 - month social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 16. The financing amount increased by 2.387 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate increased by 4.40bp to 1.411% [3]. - The basis ratios of index futures were provided, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" on dips [4]. Bond - On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose slightly [6]. - As of the end of May 2025, the social financing scale stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, and the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 16. The central bank achieved a net injection of 6.75 billion yuan on Friday [7]. - The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a positive attitude, and short - term bond market trends are expected to be volatile. In the long - term, interest rates are expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [8]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.64%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.24%. COMEX gold and silver also rose [9]. - Due to lower - than - expected US inflation data, the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year has increased, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, especially silver, and go long on dips [9][12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. The inventories of the three major exchanges decreased by 18,000 tons week - on - week. The spot import loss widened, and it is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [14]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices rose. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline, and it is expected that aluminum prices may rise first and then fall, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15]. Zinc - As of Friday, the zinc index fell 1.40%. Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, and there is a large downward risk for zinc prices [16]. Lead - As of Friday, the lead index rose 0.26%. Downstream battery companies have weak consumption, and lead prices are expected to be weak [17]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated downward. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short at high prices [18]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, and terminal demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [19]. Carbonate Lithium - The fundamentals of carbonate lithium have not improved substantially, and there is a large selling pressure above. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term [20]. Alumina - On June 13, the alumina index fell 1.45%. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the second half of the year [21]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract fell 0.28%. The inventory of Qing Shan resources is high, and steel prices are under pressure, but they are expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [22][23][24]. Black Building Materials Steel - On the previous trading day, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil both rose slightly. The demand for steel products is weak, and attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery [26][27]. Iron Ore - On Friday, the main contract of iron ore fell 0.14%. The supply of iron ore is increasing, the demand is weakening marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [28][29]. Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the spot price is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly. For soda ash, the spot price is stable, and the inventory has increased slightly. Both are expected to be weak [30]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On June 13, the main contract of manganese silicon rose 0.92%, and the main contract of ferrosilicon rose 0.50%. The demand for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is expected to weaken, and it is not recommended to buy on the left side [31][32]. Industrial Silicon - On June 13, the main contract of industrial silicon fell 1.56%. The industrial silicon market has over - capacity and insufficient demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [35][36]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Crude oil rose sharply, driving NR and RU to rebound. The bulls and bears have different views on the rubber market, and it is recommended to operate neutrally [39][40]. Crude Oil - As of Friday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. The current geopolitical risk has been gradually released, and the oil price has reached a short - selling range [42][43]. Methanol - On June 13, the 09 - contract of methanol rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is difficult to improve continuously. It is recommended to wait and see after the geopolitical conflict's positive impact is realized [44]. Urea - On June 13, the 09 - contract of urea rose. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the price has returned to a low level. It is recommended to go long at a low level [45]. Styrene - The spot price of styrene is unchanged, and the futures price has risen. The short - term contradiction is the rise in naphtha prices, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly after the war stabilizes [46]. PVC - The PVC09 - contract rose. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future [48]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short at a high level [49]. PTA - The PTA09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to go long at a low level following PX [50]. Para - xylene - The PX09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening in the short term, and it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at a low level following crude oil [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - The price of polyethylene has risen. The supply pressure may be relieved in June, and it is expected to fluctuate [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - The price of polypropylene has risen. The supply will increase in June, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. It is expected to be bearish [53]. Agricultural Products Pigs - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices rose. It is expected that pig prices will consolidate today. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at a low level and short on long - term contracts at a high level [55]. Eggs - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable. It is expected that egg prices will be stable this week. It is recommended to exit short positions at a low level and short on long - term contracts after a rebound [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Friday, US soybeans rose more than 2%. The domestic soybean meal spot price has increased. The US soybean production area will have good rainfall in the next two weeks. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish on far - month soybean meal contracts [57][58]. Oils and Fats - High - frequency export data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase. The US bio - diesel policy draft is beyond expectations, and it is recommended to be bullish on oils and fats in the short term [59][60]. Sugar - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated strongly. The international sugar market supply may be increasing, and the domestic sugar price is likely to weaken in the future [61][62]. Cotton - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [63][64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end - of - quarter repatriation of bank wealth management is a definite trend, which may cause short - term disturbances to the credit bond market. However, considering the current support for the credit bond supply - demand structure and the expectation of loose funds around the quarter - end, the overall correction pressure on credit bonds is likely to be small. After the quarter - end, as the wealth management scale recovers, the demand for credit bond allocation may quickly recover [3][6][13]. - The short - term credit spread has been compressed to the lowest point this year, with relatively limited gaming space. Subsequently, the evolution of the asset shortage may gradually drive the duration market. The term spread has been trying to compress in the past two weeks, and there is still some room for compression of the medium - and long - term spread [3][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cross - Quarter Disturbance is Controllable, and the Duration Market is Gradually Emerging - Bank wealth management scale shows obvious characteristics of declining at the end of the quarter and rising at the beginning of the quarter, which is closely related to the end - of - quarter assessment pressure of banks and has an impact on credit spreads. At the end of the quarter, wealth management products need to repatriate some assets to meet regulatory indicators such as deposits, resulting in a decrease in wealth management scale and a weakening of credit bond allocation demand, which may lead to short - term selling pressure. After the quarter - end, as the wealth management allocation power recovers, the demand for credit bond allocation increases significantly, driving the credit spread to decline [3][6]. - In the second quarter, the net purchase scale of credit bonds by wealth management was not prominent, possibly related to the smooth valuation rectification. In April and May, the net purchase scale of credit bonds by wealth management was 51.1 billion yuan and 40.1 billion yuan respectively, the lowest in the same period in the past four years, with a year - on - year decline of 29.4% and 39.3%. On the contrary, bank wealth management bought a large number of certificate of deposit products in the second quarter, especially in May, with a net purchase scale of 261.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 68.2%. This change may be related to the valuation rectification and net value stabilization pressure of bank wealth management. In terms of institutional behavior, it shows that wealth management attaches more importance to the liquidity of positions and is more cautious in selecting credit bonds. Even if the repatriation scale exceeds the seasonality during the cross - quarter repatriation stage, the short - term selling pressure on credit bonds will be relatively controllable [3][8]. - In terms of supply, the supply scale of broad - based credit bonds in May this year was higher than that in previous years, and the month - on - month growth rate of issuance in June may be weaker than expected. The supply scale of broad - based credit bonds in May was 1.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27.4%. On the one hand, the issuance progress of bank secondary and perpetual bonds accelerated sharply in late April, and the issuance scale in May was close to 300 billion. On the other hand, due to the new policy of science and technology innovation bonds, there was a wave of concentrated issuance of science and technology innovation bonds in May, with an issuance of more than 360 billion yuan, the highest single - month issuance scale since 2022. Against the background of the relatively high - base supply in May this year, the month - on - month growth rate of credit bond issuance in June may be weaker than that in previous years, and the market impact caused by the increase in credit bond supply is limited [3][11]. 3.2 What Other Coupon Can be Explored Besides Lengthening the Duration? 3.2.1 Urban Investment Bonds - As of June 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding urban investment bonds was about 15.47 trillion yuan, including about 8.17 trillion yuan of public urban investment bonds, accounting for 53%. The scale of outstanding urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% was 2.97 trillion yuan (933.445 billion yuan of public bonds), accounting for 19.23% of the total urban investment scale [17]. - In public urban investment bonds, Qinghai, Guizhou, Liaoning, Yunnan, and Shaanxi have relatively high weighted average valuation yields, all above 2.2%. Among the top ten provinces in terms of the scale of outstanding public urban investment bonds, Shandong, Sichuan, and Chongqing have relatively high valuation yields. In other large - scale public urban investment bond provinces, the yields of products within 3 years are mostly below 2%. In terms of spread performance, Shanghai and Beijing have the lowest average spreads, and the spreads in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are around 40BP. Among the top ten provinces in terms of stock, Shandong, Chongqing, and Hunan have relatively high spreads [17]. - In private urban investment bonds, Guizhou and Yunnan have a weighted average valuation yield above 3%. Among the top ten provinces in terms of the scale of outstanding private urban investment bonds, Shandong, Henan, Chongqing, and Sichuan have relatively high valuation yields, about 2.3 - 2.4%. In other large - scale private urban investment bond provinces, the yields of products within 3 years are mostly below 2.2% [18]. 3.2.2 Financial Bonds - As of June 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding financial bonds was about 14.42 trillion yuan. In terms of duration distribution, the average valuation yields of insurance sub - bonds in each duration interval within 5 years are relatively high; the average yields of bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds within 3 years are below 2% [24]. - The scale of outstanding financial bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 544.5 billion yuan, accounting for 3.8% of the total scale. Further divided by term, the scale of those with a valuation above 2.3% and a remaining term of less than 3 years is about 200.347 billion yuan, and the scale of those with a valuation above 2.3% and a remaining term of 3 - 5 years is about 340.12 billion yuan [24]. 3.2.3 Industrial Bonds - As of June 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding non - default industrial bonds was about 13.48 trillion yuan. The scale of outstanding bonds in the public utilities, non - bank finance, comprehensive, transportation, real estate, and building decoration industries exceeded one trillion yuan, among which the real estate and non - bank finance industries had relatively high average valuation yield levels [28]. - The scale of outstanding industrial bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 1.5838 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.75% of the total scale. Considering both the stock scale and the proportion of high - valuation bonds, the real estate industry has the highest proportion of high - valuation bonds and the largest absolute scale, mainly concentrated in AAA products within 3 years (with a stock of about 289.6 billion yuan) [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the central bank's efforts to support the bond market, the decline in bond yields has been limited. The large maturity volume of certificates of deposit (CDs) and the relatively high pricing of CDs have restricted the downward space for long - term yields. The short - term yields are also constrained by factors such as the lack of long - term funds, the pressure of CD maturities and tax payment periods, and the limited impact of the expected restart of central bank bond purchases [1][2][10][15]. - By the end of June, the downward space for short - term yields is expected to open up. This is due to the release of cross - quarter pressure on funds, the seasonal increase in bank wealth management bond purchases in July, and the potential restart of central bank bond purchases [27][28][31]. - The bond market strategy is to focus on coupon income and seize trading opportunities in a narrow - fluctuating market. Investors can consider the allocation opportunities of CDs, credit bonds, and interest - rate bonds, and also grasp the trading opportunities of 10 - year treasury bonds within a narrow range [34][35][42]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Why Can't the Bullish Bond Market Rise? - **Market Situation**: In June, the central bank showed an attitude of caring for the money market, and large banks increased their purchases of short - term treasury bonds. However, the decline in bond yields was limited. The 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bond yields declined less than in the previous week. The pricing of CDs remained high, restricting the downward space for long - term yields. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fluctuated around 1.65% without a significant breakthrough [1][10][14]. - **Reasons for Limited Short - Term Yield Decline**: - **Lack of Long - Term Funds**: The central bank's operations mainly provided short - term funds, while long - term funds were not sufficient. Since March, MLF has been in a monthly net - investment state, and banks' demand for long - term liabilities has increased [15]. - **Pressure from CD Maturities and Tax Payment Periods**: Since the second week of June, the weekly maturity volume of CDs has exceeded one trillion yuan for three consecutive weeks. Coupled with the tax payment deadline on the 16th, the pressure on capital gaps is large, and the pressure may ease in the second half of the month [20]. - **Limited Impact of Expected Central Bank Bond Purchases**: Although the market is concerned about the restart of central bank bond purchases, the impact on short - term yields may be limited. The downward range of short - term yields may be between 5 - 10bp [21]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: Loosening May Come Later, and Assets Can Be Snatched Now - **Downward Space for Short - Term Yields Expected to Open Up at the End of June**: - **Decline in CD Yields after Cross - Quarter Pressure Release**: With the central bank's care for funds and the possible renewal of MLF at the end of June, funds are expected to cross the quarter smoothly. After the cross - quarter pressure is released, CD yields may decline naturally [27]. - **Increased Bond Purchases by Bank Wealth Management in July**: In July, bank wealth management usually enters a period of rapid scale growth. The net purchases of bank wealth management in the secondary market increase, and they prefer CDs and credit products with a maturity of less than one year, which may open up the downward space for CD yields [27]. - **Potential Restart of Central Bank Bond Purchases**: Since June, large banks have significantly increased their net purchases of short - term treasury bonds. The market expects the central bank to restart bond purchases, which may support the short - term bond market [28][31]. - **Bond Market Strategy: Focus on Coupon Income and Seize Trading Opportunities in a Narrow - Fluctuating Market**: - **Allocation Strategy**: - **CDs**: From the end of June to July, the probability of success is high. Investors can pay attention to the allocation opportunities brought by the current price increase. CDs with a yield of around 1.7% have high allocation value [34]. - **Credit Bonds**: Focus on credit - sinking opportunities within 3 years and the opportunity for a slight compression of 4 - 5 - year credit spreads in July [35]. - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: In a narrow - fluctuating market, focus on the exploration of α - type bonds, such as 5 - 7 - year old interest - rate bonds. If the short - term yields decline, the α - compression market of medium - term bonds may be better [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 10 - year treasury bond is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1.6% - 1.7%. Traders can consider entering the market when the bond market fluctuates and the long - term interest rate adjusts. When the yield approaches 1.62%, partial profit - taking is recommended [42]. 3.3 Review of the Interest - Rate Bond Market: Loose Funds and Expectations of Repurchase with Ownership Transfer Lead to a Bull - Flat Yield Curve - **Funding Situation**: The central bank's OMO continued to have a net withdrawal, but the money market was in a balanced and loose state. The weighted average price of DR001 dropped to around 1.36%, and the 1 - year CD issuance price of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased from 1.7% to around 1.66% [9][60]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of local government bonds and inter - bank CDs decreased, while the net financing of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased [55]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spread of treasury bonds narrowed, while the term spread of China Development Bank bonds widened. The short - term yields of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds decreased, and the long - term yields of treasury bonds decreased while those of China Development Bank bonds increased [52].

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the credit spreads of different industries were generally compressed slightly, with a small number of industries experiencing significant spread widening. For urban investment bonds, the short - and medium - long - term credit spreads were slightly compressed, while those over 10Y widened slightly. For industrial bonds, the credit spreads fluctuated slightly overall, and those of 5Y and above declined slightly. For bank capital bonds, the short - term credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds widened slightly, while the medium - and long - term spreads were compressed, and the yield curve flattened. It is recommended to continue to focus on 3 - 5Y industrial bonds with yields above 2% and good liquidity, as well as high - coupon urban investment bonds and bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [3][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview This Week - **Negative News**: "H9 Guohou 01" issued by Guohou Asset Management Co., Ltd. was extended; the issuer ratings of Guangdong Montai High - tech Fiber Co., Ltd. and Qingdao Guanzhong Ecological Co., Ltd. were downgraded, and the ratings of "Montai Convertible Bond" and "Guanzhong Convertible Bond" were also downgraded; "H20 Tianying 1" issued by Wuhan Tianying Investment Group Co., Ltd. defaulted, and "H20 Tianying 2" was extended [3]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured in the open market, and the central bank conducted 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan. DR001 rose from 1.33% at the beginning of the week to 1.45% [3][44]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale**: The net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 227.5 billion yuan, an increase of 59 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 15 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3 billion yuan. Among them, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 48 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 117.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.7 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 62.2 billion yuan, an increase of 46.4 billion yuan [7]. - **Issuance Quantity**: The issuance and redemption quantities of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all increased compared with last week [8]. - **Issuance Cost**: The issuance rate of AA - rated industrial bonds decreased significantly by 55BP, mainly due to the low - rate issuance of some bonds. The issuance rate of AA + - rated financial bonds increased significantly by 48BP, mainly due to the high - rate issuance of some bonds. The issuance rates of other bonds changed by no more than 11BP [16]. 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 458 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, financial bonds, and asset - backed securities all increased [17]. - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rate of credit bonds increased overall. The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, financial bonds, and asset - backed securities all increased [18]. - **Yield**: The yields of credit bonds decreased overall, and the medium - and long - term (5 - 10Y) performance was better than the short - term. The yields of 5 - 7Y and 7 - 10Y AA - rated credit bonds decreased by 5BP respectively [23]. - **Credit Spread** - **Overall**: The credit spreads of different industries were generally compressed slightly, with a small number of industries experiencing significant spread widening. The credit spread of AA + - rated electronics industry widened by 24BP, while that of AA + - rated leisure service industry compressed by 9BP [28]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The short - and medium - long - term credit spreads were slightly compressed, while those over 10Y widened slightly. Most regions' credit spreads were compressed, with a small number of regions experiencing significant spread widening [31][32]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The credit spreads fluctuated slightly overall, and those of 5Y and above declined slightly [37]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The short - term credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds widened slightly, while the medium - and long - term spreads were compressed, and the yield curve flattened [40]. 3.4 Investment Advice Continue to focus on 3 - 5Y industrial bonds with yields above 2% and good liquidity, as well as high - coupon urban investment bonds and bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [3][44].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered after a series of domestic policies to stabilize the economy and the stock market. It is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2][3]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. With the expected continuation of a loose capital environment and weak domestic demand recovery, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [5]. - For precious metals, the weak US PPI data and employment data have increased the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting the prices of gold and silver. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. - For various non - ferrous metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc. have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Generally, short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - environment, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [9][10][14]. - In the black building materials sector, steel products, iron ore, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and industrial silicon are all affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and cost. Most products are expected to be weak in the short - term [20][21][24]. - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber, crude oil, methanol, urea, PVC, ethylene glycol, PTA, p - xylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene have different supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading suggestions are given [33][39][40]. - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of live pigs, eggs, soybean and rapeseed meal, oils and fats, sugar, and cotton are affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and policies. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [50][53][57]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.26%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1271.8 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The financing amount increased by 1.822 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate rose to 1.367%. It is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF stock index futures on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures [2][3]. Treasury Bonds - The TL main contract rose 0.07%, while T, TF, and TS main contracts fell. The central bank conducted 119.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 7.2 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [4][5]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.65% to 786.02 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.53% to 8787 yuan/kg. The weak US PPI and employment data increased the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy, supporting precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - LME copper rose 0.45% to 9690 US dollars/ton. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the processing fee is stabilizing. The short - term price is expected to be volatile at a high level. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 78200 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9600 - 9800 US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - LME aluminum rose 0.12% to 2519 US dollars/ton. The short - term price is expected to continue to rebound, but the upward space is limited. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 20200 - 20480 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2480 - 2540 US dollars/ton [10]. Zinc - Zinc ore is in surplus, and zinc smelter profits are rising. The social inventory of zinc ingots has decreased, and the decline of zinc prices has been repeated [11][12]. Lead - The downstream consumption of lead is weak, and the supply is increasing. It is expected that the lead price will continue to be weak [13]. Nickel - The short - term fundamentals of nickel have improved slightly, but it is still bearish in the long - term. It is advisable to short on rebounds. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [14]. Tin - The supply of tin is expected to be loose, but there is still uncertainty in the short - term. The short - term price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 30000 - 33000 US dollars/ton [15]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium has increased, and the inventory has risen slightly. It is expected that the contract will be weakly volatile. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2507 contract is 59500 - 60900 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - The alumina price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel is expected to be slightly volatile in the short - term due to high inventory and weakening raw material prices [18]. Black Building Materials Steel Products - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a downward trend. The demand for steel products is weak, and the export volume has declined. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, demand recovery, and cost support [20]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. The supply has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased [21]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - term due to the lack of significant improvement in real - estate demand. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [22][23]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend since February. It is not recommended to buy on the left - hand side. The decline is due to factors such as weak commodities, over - capacity, and cost reduction [24][25]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price is in a downward trend. It is due to over - capacity and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips easily [29][30]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The rubber price has fallen due to a poor macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see or use a neutral short - term trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [33][37]. Crude Oil - The WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. It is not recommended to short due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [39]. Methanol - The methanol price has rebounded weakly. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [40]. Urea - The urea price has fallen due to high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. PVC - The PVC price is expected to be weakly volatile due to strong supply and weak demand. It is necessary to beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not fulfilled [42]. Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol industry is in the de - stocking stage, but the inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation correction [43]. PTA - The PTA will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. It is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [44]. p - Xylene - The PX is expected to slow down de - stocking in June and enter a new de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [45]. Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price is expected to be volatile. The supply pressure will be relieved in June, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price is expected to be bearish in June due to planned capacity expansion and weakening demand [48]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price is mainly stable with partial small declines. The near - month contract is expected to be volatile, and the far - month contract can be shorted on rallies [50]. Eggs - The egg price is mostly stable with partial weakening. The near - month contract can be shorted on rallies, and attention should be paid to the support of the far - month contract [51][52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price has fallen. The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory pressure is postponed. The new - year US soybean may be in the process of bottom - building. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost range of the 09 contract [53][54]. Oils and Fats - The palm oil price has support due to low inventory in some regions, but it is still under pressure if the production recovers rapidly. It is expected to be volatile [55][57]. Sugar - The sugar price has fallen. The international supply tension may have passed, and the domestic supply is expected to increase. The sugar price is likely to weaken in the future [58]. Cotton - The cotton price is expected to be volatile. The downstream start - up rate has not declined significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall commodity market is still in a downward trend [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a volatile bond market and a passive widening of credit spreads, investors should prioritize high - coupon assets for certain returns and prepare in advance for the spread compression market driven by the seasonal inflow of wealth management funds in July [1][5]. - The current core contradiction in the credit bond market is the co - existence of weakening allocation demand and a passive widening of spreads in a volatile environment. Investors should seize pricing deviation opportunities under the protection of coupon safety cushions [5]. - The volatile market pattern caused by the interplay of multiple factors will continue, providing tactical opportunities for layout during market adjustments [6]. - The coupon strategy is the optimal solution in a volatile market, and portfolios should be constructed in a stratified manner according to the characteristics of liabilities [7]. - Investors should "pre - position" for the seasonal spread compression market in July and seize structural opportunities in specific bond varieties [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Yield and Spread Overview 3.1.1 Yields and Changes of Each Tenor - Yields of various types of bonds at different tenors are presented, along with their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For example, the 0.5 - year Treasury yield is 1.41%, down 4.0bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 8.4% [14]. 3.1.2 Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor - Credit spreads of various types of bonds at different tenors are shown, including their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 25bp, up 2.1bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 12.7% [16]. 3.2 Yields and Spreads of Credit Bonds by Category (Hermite Algorithm) 3.2.1 Yields and Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds by Region - **Yields and Changes of Each Tenor**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.77%, up 2.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 1.1% [19]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are given. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 30.41bp, up 4.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 7.2% [22]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are presented. For example, the AAA - rated yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 5.1% [26]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are shown. For example, the AAA - rated credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 28.96bp, up 4.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 32.2% [31]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Administrative Level**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at each administrative level, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the provincial - level yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.5bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 3.7% [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the current situation of different industries, including production and service industries, and analyzes the price trends, production status, and market pricing of upstream, midstream, and downstream industries. It also mentions that the overall industry credit spread has recently declined slightly [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Middle - View Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The US Trade Representative's Office has launched a public consultation on a proposed modification to ship - related policies, which is considered beneficial to the shipping and energy industries as it relaxes review and fee requirements for foreign ships and eases regulations on LNG carriers [1]. - **Service Industry**: The Ministry of Finance is actively cooperating to improve the "one - old - one - young" service system, advancing community - supported home - based elderly care services and promoting the high - quality development of inclusive childcare services [1]. 2. Industry Overview Upstream - **Energy**: International oil prices are rising [1]. - **Chemical**: The prices of urea and soda ash are falling [1]. - **Black**: There is a slight decline [1]. Midstream - **Chemical**: The PTA operating rate has rebounded, while the PX operating rate has recently declined [2]. - **Infrastructure**: The asphalt operating rate has been continuously rising recently [2]. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as last year and at a near - three - year low [3]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [3]. 3. Market Pricing The overall industry credit spread has recently declined slightly [4]. 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking The report provides the credit spread data of various industries on June 11, 2025, including the values of the same period last year, a quarter ago, a month ago, last week, and this week, as well as the quantile [49]. 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking The report shows the price index data of multiple industries on June 10, 2025, including the frequency, unit, update time, current value, year - on - year change, and the trend in the past 5 days [50].

Macro and Strategy Research - In May 2025, China's exports in USD terms grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in the previous month, while imports fell by 3.4%, compared to a decline of 0.2% previously. The trade surplus reached USD 103.22 billion, up from USD 96.18 billion [4][5] - The slowdown in export growth is attributed to high base effects and global economic downturn concerns, with the global manufacturing PMI remaining below 50 for three consecutive months. Exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5%, influenced by new tariffs and cautious sentiment among traders [4][5] - Import demand showed weakness, with agricultural imports rising by 17.9% year-on-year, while other major commodities experienced negative growth, indicating a need for policy support to boost domestic demand [5] Fixed Income Research - For the period from June 2 to June 8, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds increased, while transaction amounts decreased. The net financing amount for credit bonds rose, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes seeing increases, while company bonds and short-term financing bonds saw reductions [6][8] - The overall yield on medium and short-term notes and corporate bonds declined, while city investment bonds showed mixed results. The credit spread for medium and short-term notes widened, indicating a complex market environment [8] - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for yields is downward, and investors should focus on timing their investments and monitoring interest rate trends [8] Industry Research - In the steel sector, demand is expected to decline as the off-season deepens, leading to a potential accumulation of steel inventory. The short-term outlook remains weak for steel prices [10][11] - For copper, tight supply at the mine level supports prices, but the lack of demand during the off-season may lead to volatility, particularly influenced by US-China trade negotiations [10][11] - The aluminum market faces uncertainty due to macroeconomic factors, while low domestic inventory provides some price support. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions, US interest rate expectations, and geopolitical factors, with a focus on macroeconomic data and trade developments [10][11] - The lithium market is experiencing oversupply, leading to price weakness, while the rare earth sector is positioned for long-term growth due to policy support and emerging demand from robotics and renewable energy [10][11]