国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内国内浮法玻璃产线略有波动，江苏两条浮法产线计划外放水，涉及产能1200吨。截至2026年2月5日，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后 | | --- | --- | | | 共计296条(19.95万吨/日），其中在产211条，冷修停产85条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为14.98万吨，比29日-0.79% | | | 本周（20260130-0205）浮法玻璃行业平均开工率71.86%，环比持平；浮法玻璃行业平均产能利用率75.61%，环比-0.09个百分点。截止2月5日， | | | 浮法玻璃日度损失量4.968万吨，环比+2.48%，周度损失量34.06万吨，环比+0.35%。 | | 需求 | 深加工： 截至20260115，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.3天，环比+7.9%，同比+86.4%。目前来看，随着春节脚步临近，加工厂多数进 | | | 入赶 ...

烧碱：低位震荡，未来成本抬升预期强 PVC：偏弱震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2026年2月8日 | 供应 | 中国10万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为87.8%，较上周环比+0.1% | | --- | --- | | | 氧化铝方面，本周国内检修式压产频繁，运行产能弹性波动，整体供应形势尚未发生根本性改变，对价格支撑仍旧不足，不排除仍有其他 | | 需求 | 氧化铝企业在2月份出现阶段性生产波动的可能，预计主要影响范围仍集中在山西与河南区域，以及山东个别高成本企业。非铝需求当前 | | | 维持刚需，面临淡季开工下滑。从烧碱出口方面看，出口订单较少，下游囤货意愿较弱。 | | | 市场做空烧碱利润的核心逻辑是液氯偏强，烧碱成本下滑，未到现金流成本厂家不减产，因而高产量、高库存格局持续。然而该逻辑在后 期将受到挑战，主要因液氯的短期强势格局在4月份之后（出口退税导致的抢出口结束）或难以持续。 | | | 从基本面看，烧碱高库存导致现货弱势在春节前难逆转。需求端，氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变，减产预期压制对烧碱的囤货，不过 | | 观点 | 后期也有大规 ...

Group 1 - The chemical industry is showing clear signs of a cyclical turning point, with policies aimed at reducing excessive competition accelerating supply-demand improvements [3][28] - The basic chemical index has rebounded strongly, closing at 8447 points as of February 6, 2026, representing an increase of approximately 47.9% compared to the beginning of 2025 [3][13] - The chemical product price index (CCPI) reached 4066 points as of February 5, 2026, up about 6.3% from the low of 3825 points on November 5, 2025 [3][14] - The valuation of the chemical industry is recovering but remains at historically low levels, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.60 as of February 6, 2026, up about 20% from 2.17 on December 16, 2025 [3][20] - Capital expenditure in the chemical industry has turned negative since June 2025, indicating the end of the capacity expansion cycle [3][23] Group 2 - The North Exchange has several cyclical-related companies in the chemical new materials sector, including polyurethane, organic silicon, pesticides, PVC, petrochemicals, and soda ash [3][34] - Key companies in the North Exchange include Yinuowei, Jilin Carbon Valley, Jinhua New Materials, Yingtai Biological, Anda Technology, Jiaxian Co., and Deer Chemical, which are essential links in the industry chain [3][34] Group 3 - The North Exchange chemical new materials sector experienced a decline of 3.39% in the week from February 2 to February 6, 2026 [4][36] - The North Exchange 50 index closed at 1520.89 points, with a weekly decline of 0.70% [4][36] - The best-performing stocks in the North Exchange chemical new materials sector for the week included Gebijia (+7.52%), Bingyang Technology (+5.28%), and Yinuowei (+4.23%) [4][42] Group 4 - Recent announcements include the change of control at Kaide Quartz and Bingyang Technology's inclusion in the Sinopec supplier list for acid fracturing materials [5][74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Views - The transportation sector is expected to benefit from the high demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with a notable increase in passenger volume and airline ticket prices [3][11] - The logistics sector shows promising growth, particularly for companies like ZTO Express, which has reported an increase in market share and profitability [4][17] - The shipping market is experiencing high VLCC rates due to tight capacity and geopolitical premiums, while dry bulk rates have seen a decline [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - On February 2, 2026, the Spring Festival travel season commenced, with a total of 184.986 million people traveling, an increase of 11.3% compared to the same period in 2025. The civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.234 million, up 7.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The transportation sector index rose by 1.90% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.17 percentage points [21] - The top-performing segments included air transportation, express delivery, and logistics, with respective increases of 8.15%, 3.76%, and 1.24% [21] Air Travel - The average ticket price for civil aviation during the Spring Festival was 840 yuan, a 3.0% increase from 2025, with an average seat occupancy rate of 83.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the aviation sector driven by demand recovery and supportive policies, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates, with the Middle East route commanding $119,447 per day and the West Africa route at $130,293 per day as of February 6 [2][13] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,923 points, indicating a decrease in dry bulk shipping rates [14] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the shipping market dynamics, particularly in relation to geopolitical factors and supply chain developments [15] Logistics - ZTO Express reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for Q4 2025, with a slight increase in single-ticket revenue and gross profit [4][17] - The company is issuing $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to finance share buybacks, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [18] - The logistics sector is expected to see growth driven by overseas e-commerce and competitive dynamics among leading express companies [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The cost support for steel prices has weakened, leading to a slight decline in steel prices [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment - The "Three Red Lines" constraints on the real estate market have been relaxed, improving market expectations and creating a generally favorable macro - environment [5][6] - Policy expectations have resurfaced, with the government emphasizing the governance of low - price and disorderly competition in enterprises and promoting the improvement of product quality [8] 3.2 Black Industry Chain - Steel mills' winter storage replenishment is nearing completion, and high iron ore inventories are suppressing the futures price. The supply and demand of steel are both weak, and the inventory is healthy, but the decline in cost may drag down steel prices slightly [5][9][11] - The upward drive for black commodities depends on cost - driven factors such as policy - restricted coal supply contraction or sudden disturbances in the iron ore supply. Relying on steel demand alone cannot form a smooth positive feedback market [5] - The downward drive is the release of high - inventory liquidity of iron ore, which will lead to the decline of the spot market and then the futures market [5] 3.3 Rebar Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3220 (-30) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price was 3077 (-51) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was 143 (+21) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 47 (+2) yuan/ton [18] - The rebar market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [14] 3.3.2 Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence, while second - hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low [22] - It is the traditional off - season, and rebar demand has declined [23] 3.3.3 MS Weekly Data - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak, and the inventory is healthy [24] - The production and inventory of long - and short - process rebar show certain seasonal characteristics [25][27] 3.3.4 Production Profit - Last week, the rebar spot profit was 136 (+7) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 134 (+5) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 32 (-68) yuan/ton [31] 3.4 Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3250 (-20) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract futures price was 3251 (-37) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 1 (+17) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 18 (+5) yuan/ton [38] - The hot - rolled coil market also shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [34] 3.4.2 Demand - It is the traditional off - season, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has declined. However, the profit window for exports has opened, leading to a rebound in exports [39][40] 3.4.3 MS Weekly Data - The inventory of hot - rolled coils has been successfully reduced, and the production remains at a low level [46][47] 3.4.4 Production Profit - Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 3 (+17) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 158 (+19) yuan/ton [52] 3.5 Variety Regional Differences - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold - rolled coils, hot - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates [58][59][61][62][64] 3.6 Cold - Rolled and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report presents the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates [65][66]

格隆汇2月8日丨中国银河证券表示，在当前A股市场趋势下，"轻仓持股过节"是一种审慎且符合历史规 律的合理策略，既规避了节前市场缩量调整的波动风险，又保留了节后春季行情的参与机会，尤其适用 于当前政策预期已部分兑现、业绩验证尚未启动的过渡阶段。在配置机会上，建议关注两条主线。主线 一，供需格局改善与行业盈利修复带动的"反内卷"概念，以及估值具备安全边际的红利资产，配置逻辑 依然清晰，建议关注有色、基础化工、钢铁、水泥、建筑材料、金融等板块。主线二，全球百年未遇之 大变局加速演进，国内经济底层逻辑转向新质生产力，半导体、人工智能、新能源、军工、航空航天 等"十五五"重点领域值得关注。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.11%, the ChiNext down 3.28%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down 4.31% [1] - Citic Securities highlights a conflict between short-term interests and long-term value in overseas markets, driven by a heightened urgency for real economy investments and the disruptive innovation brought by AI [1] - China’s capital market has already transitioned towards real economy pricing, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements, suggesting that short-term market fluctuations should not cause anxiety [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities recommends a "light position for the holiday" strategy to mitigate risks while retaining opportunities for the post-holiday spring market, particularly in a transitional phase where policy expectations have partially materialized [2] - The focus should be on two main lines: the "anti-involution" concept driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the emphasis on sectors with safety margins in valuations, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, cement, and financials [2] - The second line of focus includes key areas like semiconductors, AI, new energy, military, and aerospace, which are aligned with the new production capacity logic in the domestic economy [2] Group 3 - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the market will maintain a structurally active and oscillating pattern, with technology sectors remaining active in the short term, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and semiconductor equipment [3] - High-dividend sectors are expected to gain traction as the market transitions from high-elasticity trading to more certain configurations post-Spring Festival, with a focus on low-valuation, stable earnings, and high dividend certainty [3] Group 4 - Guojin Securities notes that the global AI industry cycle is entering a new phase, with a shift in focus towards infrastructure investments that cannot be disrupted by AI, leading to a revaluation of physical assets [4] - Recommendations include investing in physical assets like oil, copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages such as electrical equipment and engineering machinery [4] - The consumption recovery channel is expected to benefit from capital inflows, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel re-entry, particularly in aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverage sectors [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 交通运输 春运拉开帷幕，航空迎周期景气拐点 周观点：2 月 2 日，2026 年春运正式拉开帷幕，首日全社会跨区域人员流动量 18498.6 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 11.3%，其中民航客运量 223.4 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 7.4%；根据航班管家，截至 2 月 6 日，2026 年春运民航累计平 均票价 840 元、同比 2025 年同期增长 3.0%，累计客座率 83.3%、同比 2025 年 同期增长 1.2 个百分点。在春运高景气预期下，继续看好" 扩内需"及" 反内卷" 下航空板块中长期景气度。 行情回顾：本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6）交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.90%，跑赢 上证指数 3.17 个百分点（上证指数下跌 1.27%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类 看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航空运输、快递、物流，涨幅分别为 8.15%、3.76%、 1.24%；跌幅前三名的板块分别为公路货运、航运、港口，跌幅分别为-0.85%、- 0.44%、-0.40%。 航运港口：VLCC ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 春节前A 股短期走势对节后行情可能有一定影响。2010 年以来的16 年中，有9次春节前5 个交易日内上 证综指走强（弱）而节后1 个交易日上证综指下跌（上涨）；有12 次节前5 个交易日内上证综指涨跌与 节后5 个交易日内涨跌同向。 春季行情未完，春节期间风险可能有限，可持股过节。（1）今年春节期间经济和盈利预期可能改善。 一是春节出行、消费数据可能偏好。二是今年春节地产销售可能有所回暖：首先，低基数效应下今年春 节期间地产销售同比增速可能有所回升；其次，各地刺激地产销售的政策预期较强，春节假期期间地产 销售可能延续回暖趋势。（2）春节期间流动性可能维持宽松。一是春节期间宏观流动性可能维持宽 松：首先，海外方面，2 月11 日美国1 月CPI 数据将公布，2 月17 日美国零售数据将披露，预计美元指 数可能继续维持低位震荡，海外对国内流动性宽松的掣肘有限；其次，国内方面，春节前流动性季节性 紧张下央行可能加大净投放力度。二是春节前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to maintain rapid growth by 2026, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - Recent fluctuations in material prices for power batteries warrant attention to the pricing situation along the supply chain [1]. - Solid-state batteries are entering a critical phase of engineering validation, with a focus on related materials and equipment companies [1]. - In the photovoltaic sector, "anti-involution" and "space photovoltaics" are identified as the two main investment themes for 2026, with increased demand for photovoltaic equipment [1]. - The domestic market is seeing a rise in high-power component demand, with downstream battery components relying on efficiency improvements for market clearing [1]. - Wind power demand is expected to continue growing, with recommendations to focus on wind turbines and offshore wind power [1]. - The energy storage sector remains highly prosperous, with a recommendation to pay attention to energy storage cells and large-scale integrated plants [1]. - Hydrogen energy is anticipated to open up demand for green hydrogen, with a focus on downstream hydrogen-based energy applications [1]. - Nuclear fusion is seen as a long-term catalyst for energy development, with recommendations to focus on core suppliers in the nuclear fusion power sector [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The power equipment and new energy sector rose by 2.2%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.27% [10]. - The photovoltaic sector saw the highest increase at 3.43%, while the wind power sector experienced a slight decline of 0.01% [13]. Key Industry Information - The China Passenger Car Association estimates that 900,000 new energy vehicles will be wholesaled in January 2026, a 1% year-on-year increase [27]. - Changan Automobile and CATL announced the global launch of the first sodium battery mass-produced passenger vehicle, expected to be available by mid-2026 [27]. - Tesla has achieved large-scale production of dry electrode technology [27]. - The domestic energy storage tender for January 2026 reached 36.3 GWh, with notable bidding scales in Ningxia, Hebei, and Xinjiang [27]. Company Developments - Foster is collaborating with professional institutions to invest in a private equity fund focused on flexible thin-film gallium arsenide battery companies [29]. - Guoxuan High-Tech plans to raise up to 5 billion yuan through a private placement for a 20 GWh power battery project [29]. - TCL Zhonghuan's subsidiary Maxeon Solar signed a patent licensing agreement with Aisuo, with a five-year licensing fee of 1.65 billion yuan [29].