Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is transitioning from "scale competition" to "value competition," with a projected domestic installation of 180-240 GW in 2026, down from 315 GW in 2025. The average annual new installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are expected to be 238-287 GW, with global annual installations projected at 725-870 GW [1] - The establishment of a supply-demand platform for space photovoltaic technology marks a significant step towards industrial collaboration, with major companies like Tesla and SpaceX actively engaging in the photovoltaic supply chain [2] - The recent bidding for photovoltaic components by China Huadian Group saw prices exceed 1 RMB/W for the first time, indicating a shift towards rational pricing in the industry [3] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a rational clearing process, with a long-term growth center clearly defined for the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The focus on "value competition" will accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacities, benefiting leading companies with efficient batteries and advanced materials [1] Technological Developments - The focus on heterojunction (HJT) and perovskite technologies is gaining momentum, with significant interest from major players in the industry. This shift is expected to catalyze the mass production of new battery technologies [2] Market Trends - The recent price increases in photovoltaic components are driven by multiple factors, including rising silver prices and a consensus within the industry to avoid excessive competition. This trend is expected to lead to a more rational pricing environment [3] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy highlights three main lines: 1. "Anti-involution" benefiting high-cost silicon material and integrated component companies, with recommended stocks like Tongwei Co. 2. Energy storage as a rapidly growing segment, with recommendations for companies like Sungrow Power Supply. 3. Space photovoltaic technology, driven by AI computing needs, with a focus on HJT and perovskite technologies, benefiting companies like Junda Co. and GCL-Poly Energy [3]

2026年03月01日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 2 | | 工业硅：上游复产，关注市场情绪扰动 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注市场"反内卷"情绪 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：基本面向好，关注市场情绪 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 1 日 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 1）精炼镍：2 月 27 日中国精炼镍社会库存增加 3616 吨至 76619 吨。其中，仓单库存增加 673 吨至 53131 吨；现货库存增加 3343 吨至 20018 吨；保税区库存减少 400 吨至 3470 吨。LME 镍库存增加 888 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 商 品 研 究 行情观点： 沪镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [5] Core Views - The chemical industry is at the bottom of a four-year down cycle, with indicators suggesting it has nearly bottomed out. The year 2026 is expected to be a turning point for the cycle [20] - The price index for Chinese chemical products (CCPI) was reported at 3930 points on December 31, 2025, a 39% decrease from the peak in 2021, indicating the industry is in a historically low range [20] - The net profit for the basic chemical sector reached 112.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, indicating initial stabilization [20] - Capital expenditure in the industry has decreased by 18.3% year-on-year, marking seven consecutive quarters of negative growth since Q4 2023, signaling the end of the supply expansion phase [20] Summary by Sections 1. Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to see a reversal in the cycle in 2026, with multiple indicators showing it has reached a bottom [20] - The significant drop in the CCPI indicates a historical low for the industry [20] - The increase in net profit suggests a stabilization in the sector [20] - The decline in capital expenditure indicates a shift away from supply expansion [20] 2. Chemical Sector Performance - The basic chemical industry index rose by 3.6% in the recent week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.5 percentage points [28] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 19.2%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext indices [28] 3. Individual Stock Performance - In the recent week, 24 out of 26 sub-sectors in the basic chemical industry saw gains, with the phosphate and phosphate chemical sector leading with an 8.8% increase [32] - The polyester sector experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, indicating mixed performance among individual stocks [32]

Report Title - The report is titled "Industrial Silicon: Upstream Resumption, Pay Attention to Market Sentiment Disturbance" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Report Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the upstream resumption rhythm. Although the supply is expected to increase in mid - early March, the downward space of the disk may be limited by funds. It is recommended to look for buying points at low positions, with the expected disk range next week being 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton [6][7] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the change of spot prices. It is in a state of high - inventory destocking, and the price center of gravity may decline in the early stage of destocking. However, the disk bottom has support, and it is not recommended to participate in futures, but options can be considered if participating. The expected disk range next week is 45000 - 51000 yuan/ton [7] Summary of Each Section 1. Market Data - It provides the reference prices of industrial silicon in mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices in three major ports/warehouses from January 30, 2026, to February 27, 2026 [10] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.3 million tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons, with the overall industry inventory increasing by 0.48 million tons. The subsequent registration of futures warehouse receipts needs attention [3][12] - Production: The market focuses on the resumption rhythm of upstream silicon plants in mid - early March. This week, the monthly opening rate and monthly output of industrial silicon are shown in the charts, and the production in Xinjiang is expected to increase with the resumption of 15 furnaces in mid - early March [3][14] - Cost: The cost of industrial silicon in the southwest region during the dry season is calculated to be 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton (converted to the disk). The prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, and electrodes, as well as the electricity prices in main production areas, are presented in the charts [3][15][19] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Market situation: This week, the polysilicon disk showed a weak shock, and the upstream quotation may gradually loosen under high - inventory pressure. The market focuses on whether large polysilicon manufacturers will resume production in March [2][4] - Supply: The weekly output decreased, and the inventory of silicon material manufacturers decreased. The overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption, and is at a high level. The average full - cost is about 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton [4] - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule increased week - on - week. However, the continuous decline in silicon wafer prices affects the psychological purchase price of silicon materials. After mid - early March, the demand is expected to gradually decline [4][5] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - Market situation: This week, the weekly production of organic silicon increased slightly, and some factories plan to resume normal production. The downstream purchase is light, and the inventory is increasing [3] - Relevant data: The average price, monthly opening rate, monthly output, factory inventory, export volume, and profit of DMC are presented in the charts [25][27] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Market situation: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work of aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers is limited, with few inquiries and purchases. It is expected that rigid - demand orders will be released after the Lantern Festival [3] - Relevant data: The price, monthly opening rate, average profit of recycled aluminum, and the monthly sales volume of domestic automobiles are presented in the charts [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical events on oil and certain petrochemical product prices, the focus on undervalued leading companies in the industry, and the price increase trends in certain sub-industries under the backdrop of "anti-involution" [2][4] - It emphasizes the strong downstream demand and the increasing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials companies [4] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of February 27, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemicals sector is 30.87, at the 87.20% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.78, at the 81.65% historical percentile [4] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 15.58, at the 47.72% historical percentile, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.51, at the 52.34% historical percentile [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following in March: the impact of geopolitical events on oil and petrochemical prices, undervalued leading companies, price increases in certain sub-industries due to "anti-involution," and companies in electronic materials and new energy materials benefiting from strong downstream demand [4][11] - Long-term investment recommendations include traditional chemical leaders with resilient operations, sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, and companies in the new materials sector [4][11] Price Trends - The report notes that 43 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, with 58% of products experiencing month-over-month price rises [11][35] - Specific price increases include TDI, which rose to 15,081 CNY/ton, a 3.47% increase from the previous week and a 20.65% increase year-on-year [38] - Yellow phosphorus prices increased to 24,370 CNY/ton, up 4.90% from the previous week and 6.28% year-on-year [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the transportation sector [5] Core Insights - The VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates continue to rise unexpectedly, with a focus on oil transportation and VLCC shipbuilding sectors. The non-compliant market is restricted, and the supply-demand relationship in the compliant market is improving, leading to increased freight rate elasticity during the economic cycle [1][2] - Sinokor's significant acquisition of VLCC assets is raising industry concentration, which is expected to enhance freight rate elasticity during the economic cycle. Key companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy, ST Songfa, COSCO Shipping International, and Haitong Development [1][2] - The air travel sector is expected to benefit from high passenger load factors translating into ticket price increases, supported by low supply growth and recovering demand. The report emphasizes monitoring demand recovery and international flight resumption [3][12] - The express delivery industry saw a year-on-year growth of 5.4% in January-February 2026, with significant investments in companies like ZTO Express and Jitu Express. The report highlights two investment themes: overseas expansion driven by e-commerce growth and the consolidation of market share among leading express companies [3][19] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index rose by 3.64% from February 24 to February 27, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.66 percentage points. The top-performing sub-sectors were shipping, warehousing and logistics, and ports, with increases of 11.81%, 5.37%, and 5.08%, respectively [2][20] - The VLCC market saw freight rates of $209,352 per day for a 270,000-ton vessel from Ras Tanura to Ningbo and $224,195 per day for a 260,000-ton vessel from West Africa to Ningbo as of February 27, 2026 [2][13] Air Travel - The average ticket price for economy class during the 2026 Spring Festival was 1,026.9 yuan, a 6.6% increase year-on-year. The passenger load factor reached 86.9%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous year [11][12] Shipping and Ports - The report indicates that the oil transportation sector is experiencing a high level of prosperity, which is positively impacting new shipbuilding and second-hand ship markets. Key companies to focus on include China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [1][2][14] Logistics - The express delivery sector is expected to see continued growth, with a focus on the overseas expansion of e-commerce and the consolidation of market share among leading companies. The report recommends monitoring ZTO Express and YTO Express for potential investment opportunities [3][19][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the upstream resumption rhythm. Although the supply decreased marginally due to factory production cuts, there is an expectation of resumption in mid - early March, which will bring supply increments. The overall downstream procurement of industrial silicon remains stable, and considering the anti - involution trend, the downside space of the disk is limited. It is recommended to look for buying points at low levels, with the expected disk range next week being 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton [6][7] - For polysilicon, focus on the spot price. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply is shrinking due to the dry season and high inventory, and the demand will decline after the end of the export rush. The price will decline in the early stage of destocking, but the bottom of the disk is supported by the anti - involution policy. It is not recommended to participate in futures, and options can be considered. The expected disk range next week is 45000 - 51000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from January 30, 2026, to February 27, 2026, including different grades such as Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [10] 3.2工业硅供给端——冶炼端、原料端 - In terms of inventory, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.3 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.18 million tons this week, with a total industry inventory increase of 0.48 million tons. Attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [3][12] - Regarding production, the market is concerned about the resumption rhythm of upstream silicon plants in mid - early March. The开工 rate increased slightly this week. In the southwest region, it has entered the dry season, and the cost is 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton (converted to the disk). In Xinjiang, some factories are expected to resume production of 15 furnaces in mid - early March, which will significantly increase the supply [3] 3.3工业硅消费端——下游多晶硅 - In terms of price, the polysilicon spot price may be loose under high - inventory pressure. The disk was weakly volatile this week, closing at 46495 yuan/ton [2] - Regarding supply, the weekly output decreased this week. Silicon material manufacturers reduced production passively to relieve high - inventory pressure. The current factory inventory is about 340,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption [4] - In terms of demand, the silicon wafer production increased week - on - week. However, the continuous decline in silicon wafer prices will affect the psychological purchase price of silicon materials. After mid - early March, the demand is expected to decline [4][5] 3.4工业硅消费端——下游有机硅 - In terms of price, the average price of domestic DMC has been fluctuating. - Regarding production, the weekly production of organic silicon increased slightly this week, and some factories plan to resume normal production. The inventory of organic silicon has increased, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of post - festival demand recovery [3] 3.5工业硅消费端——下游铝合金 - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work of aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers is limited, with few inquiries and purchases. The demand market increases slowly, and it is expected that rigid - demand orders will be released after the Lantern Festival. The overseas demand in the export market has not improved [3]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a recovery in valuation, with the market performance indicating an 11.80% increase this week, outperforming the broader market [2][11] - The report highlights a significant increase in the production and utilization rates of steel, with a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 87.5% as of February 27 [3][22] - Demand for steel has seen a decline, with a total consumption of 564.7 million tons, down 10.87% week-on-week [32] - Inventory levels have increased, with social inventory rising to 1,295.8 million tons, a 9.63% increase week-on-week [40] - Steel prices have shown mixed trends, with the comprehensive index for ordinary steel at 3,406.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight decrease [46] Supply Situation - As of February 27, the average daily pig iron production was 2.3328 million tons, an increase of 2.79% week-on-week [22] - The capacity utilization for electric furnaces remained stable at 7.4% [22] - The total production of five major steel products was 6.984 million tons, a decrease of 1.12% week-on-week [22] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products decreased to 564.7 million tons, with a notable drop in rebar sales [32][27] - The transaction volume for construction steel among mainstream traders was 35,000 tons, down 48.24% week-on-week [32] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products reached 1,295.8 million tons, up 9.63% week-on-week [40] - Factory inventory also increased to 550.4 million tons, reflecting a 3.87% rise week-on-week [40] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was reported at 3,406.0 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.86% [46] - The profit for rebar production was 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.06% week-on-week [54] - The average cost of pig iron was 2,332 yuan/ton, showing a decrease of 11.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [54] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality steel companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Hualing Steel and Shougang [4] - Companies involved in restructuring and integration, like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel, are also highlighted for their growth potential [4] - Special steel enterprises benefiting from the new energy cycle, such as CITIC Special Steel and Jiuli Special Materials, are recommended for investment [4]

Group 1 - The economic goals for 2026 are set to be more pragmatic, with GDP growth target adjusted to 4.5-5.0%, CPI target maintained at around 2%, and urban unemployment rate around 5.5% [4][5][6] - The macroeconomic policy is expected to maintain continuity, with a focus on enhancing the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies, emphasizing support for consumption, investment in people, and social welfare [2][6][8] - The government aims to expand domestic demand as a primary task, promoting a virtuous cycle between supply and demand through new demand leading to new supply [8][12] Group 2 - The A-share market is anticipated to be driven by policy catalysts, with a focus on industry themes and opportunities, characterized by rapid style switching and policy hot spots rotation [16][17] - Key investment themes include the "anti-involution" concept driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery, as well as technology growth sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and new energy [17][22] - The "anti-involution" index has significantly outperformed the CSI 300 index, indicating strong market interest in sectors that focus on quality and efficiency improvements [22][27]

Core Insights - A-shares achieved a positive start post-Spring Festival, with major indices showing upward trends, including a 1.98% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 2.80% rise in the Shenzhen Component Index [2][8] - The overall upward trend in A-share indices is attributed to a moderate increase in domestic consumption data during the Spring Festival and heightened market attention towards the "14th Five-Year Plan" as the Two Sessions approach, leading to a resurgence in technology and "anti-involution" sectors [10][11] Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, steel and non-ferrous metals led the gains with increases of 12.27% and 9.77% respectively, while media and retail sectors saw declines of 5.10% and 1.64% [3][17] - In the 124 second-level industries, small metals and steel raw materials had the highest weekly gains of 17.72% and 13.27%, with cumulative gains since the beginning of 2026 at 52.18% and 42.76% respectively [19][20] - The top-performing third-level industries included laser equipment and phosphate fertilizers, with weekly gains of 20.49% and 19.25%, and cumulative gains of 59.73% and 53.40% respectively since the start of 2026 [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for stable economic operation supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which are anticipated to sustain a "slow bull" market for A-shares [5][23] - Attention is recommended for sectors benefiting from the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan," particularly in new productivity areas such as technology and environmental protection, as well as structural opportunities in traditional sectors related to "anti-involution" [5][23]