1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With cost support and peak - season restocking, PTA inventory reduction continues. It is expected to have a short - term strong - side oscillation at a low valuation. However, the long - term supply - demand situation is weakening, and the rebound momentum is limited. Attention should be paid to crude oil dynamics [6]. - MEG: The cost side of ethylene glycol performs well. With some device maintenance and blocked arrival of imported goods, it is expected to continue the short - term rebound trend [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Price and Market Trend**: Due to the US increasing sanctions on Russia, the ongoing stalemate in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the easing of market concerns about trade disputes, combined with the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories, international crude oil rebounded from a low level. For PX, with cost support, many factories reported reduced reform loads or malfunctions, and terminal restocking enthusiasm increased, leading to a recovery in the absolute price of PX. As of October 24, the closing price of Asian PX was $815/ton CFR China, up $32/ton from October 17 [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The 1 million - ton device of Urumqi Petrochemical continued maintenance and was planned to restart around October 29; two 1.4 - million - ton devices of Fushun Dahua continued maintenance and were planned to restart in early November. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PX was 86.33%, a decrease of 1.09% compared to the previous week [19]. - **Price Difference**: As of October 24, the PX - naphtha price difference was $233.9/ton, a decrease of $12.3/ton from October 17. Although many factories reported reduced reform loads or malfunctions, the cost side was significantly driven up by crude oil, resulting in a narrow decline in the PX - naphtha price difference [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: In the first half of the week, affected by the weakening of oil prices, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was low, and the pessimistic sentiment in the industrial chain spread. The spot price of PTA continued to weaken. In the middle of the week, as oil prices rebounded from a low level, the overall sentiment in the commodity market improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream industries in the traditional peak season increased. The spot price rebounded from a low level. As of October 24, the spot price of PTA was 4,450 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 81 [25]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PTA reached 75.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42%. Although the load of Yisheng Ningbo's device decreased, due to the load increase of Yisheng New Materials last week, the increase was more than the decrease, and the overall domestic production this period increased. In October, Ineos and Hengli both had maintenance plans, and the restart times of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan were not yet determined. The monthly production of PTA may increase significantly. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more - than - expected production cuts in existing devices [28]. - **Processing Fee**: The terminal performance was mediocre, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream industries was hindered, and the spot price trend was sluggish. However, the raw material supply was tight, and the price trend was strong. This week, the PTA processing fee continued to decline. Next week, there is an expectation of a rebound in the PTA spot price, but the maintenance devices have restart plans, and the polyester end changes little. The inventory reduction amplitude in the balance sheet narrows, and the PTA processing fee may be slightly repaired [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In October, there was insufficient PTA device maintenance, and the maintenance devices restarted one after another. With little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand situation is expected to be in a loose balance [32]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: At the beginning of the week, the market continued to worry about the supply - demand pattern. In the middle of the week, affected by factors such as the continuous rise of crude oil, the reduction in supply, and the decrease in imported goods, the price of ethylene glycol rose from a low level. As of October 24, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang reached 4,183 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market remained stable at 4,280 yuan/ton [37]. - **Capacity Utilization**: This week, the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 68.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 67.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81%; the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 70.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. In October, due to cautious import expectations, the inventory accumulation amplitude at ports was limited, but the domestic production increase expectation was obvious. Attention should be paid to the impact of unexpected device changes [38]. - **Inventory**: As of October 29, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China was 127,000 tons. As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to October 16 [42][44]. - **Profit**: With the stable operation of newly invested domestic devices, the overall supply continued to increase. The terminal orders were mediocre, and the downstream polyester demand was lackluster. The trend of weakening supply - demand could not be reversed. The raw material prices fluctuated, and the sample profits of each ethylene glycol production process showed both increases and decreases. As of October 24, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $95.04/ton, up $13.85/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was - 610.44 yuan/ton, down 140.24 yuan/ton from last week [46]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester was 87.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%. Some domestic polyester devices were shut down for maintenance during the week. Next week, the previously shut - down and maintained devices have no clear restart expectations, and the commissioning of new devices is postponed. It is expected that the domestic polyester production will decline slightly next week [51]. - **Capacity Utilization of Each Product**: This week, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.04%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous period. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 85.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02%; among them, the average capacity utilization rate of conventional staple fiber was 88.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.67%. The Fujian Shanli plant shut down during the period. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08% [57]. - **Inventory**: Downstream industries carried out centralized restocking during the week, the overall sales of polyester increased, and the finished product inventory of factories decreased [58]. - **Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost increased, and polyester filament manufacturers sold products at discounted prices. The cash flow of most varieties was compressed [63]. - **Weaving Load**: As of October 23, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.45%, an increase of 2.39% compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 15.68 days, an increase of 0.88 days compared to last week. As the weather gets colder, the demand for domestic autumn and winter fabrics is good, and the inventory pressure of grey fabrics is relieved. However, the market lacks confidence in future orders, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis. It is expected that the operating rate will still face downward pressure in the future [64]. 3.5 Summary of Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost**: International crude oil rebounded from a low level, and the absolute price of PX recovered [68]. - **Supply**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PTA increased slightly, and the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate decreased [68]. - **Demand**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester decreased slightly, and the weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased [68]. - **Inventory**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the near - term supply remains tight, while the long - term supply - demand inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China decreased [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★, indicating a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but with low market operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, showing a bullish drive but low market operability [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks, especially the escalation of sanctions on Russia, are driving the short - term upward volatility of the oil market. The short - term trends of various energy products are greatly affected by macro events, while the medium - term trends are related to supply - demand fundamentals [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, with the SC12 contract rising 2.4% intraday. The sharp escalation of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical risk led to the oil price rebound. The EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia involves 4 Chinese enterprises, and supply - chain risks have emerged in the trade and unloading ports of Chinese purchases of Russian oil. Geopolitical risks drive the short - term upward volatility of the oil market. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US - Malaysian talks from the 24th to 27th and subsequent Russia - US dialogues [1] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The escalation of sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US and geopolitical factors drive the upward trend of the crude - oil system. The sanctions on Russia, a major producer of high - sulfur raw materials, have a stronger upward driving force for high - sulfur fuel oil than for low - sulfur fuel oil. In the short term, the trend depends on the outcome of macro events. In the medium term, as the power - generation peak season ends and supply becomes looser, the upward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil will gradually appear. The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil remain weak with abundant overseas supply. The recovery of the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery has led to a decline in shipments, but its operational stability remains to be observed. In the fourth quarter, the increase in heating and power - generation demand in the Northern Hemisphere may bring marginal improvement to low - sulfur fuel oil and support the crack spread [2] Asphalt - The BU contract continued its upward trend, with the near - month contract rising relatively strongly. This week, both supply and demand of asphalt decreased. The scheduled production of local refineries in November decreased significantly month - on - month and year - on - year. The weekly shipments of 54 asphalt sample enterprises decreased month - on - month. Social inventories continued to be destocked steadily, while the destocking of refinery inventories was slow, and the overall commercial inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, the asphalt market maintains a tight - balance pattern, and the strengthening of the cost side helps the BU contract consolidate its upward trend [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - All LPG futures contracts rose today. The external market price stabilized and rebounded. The commercial volume of liquefied gas and the volume of imported vessels both decreased. The improvement of chemical profit promoted the increase in demand, and the significant cooling in many places led to a sign of improvement in the combustion - end demand. The inventories of Chinese refineries and ports continued to decline. The marginal improvement of fundamentals and the strengthening of crude oil prices boosted the LPG market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation has led to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the sustainability of sanctions and their impact on the market need to be closely monitored. The crude oil market faces supply - demand imbalances, with increasing supply and weakening demand in the future [7][8][10]. - The price of asphalt may follow the short - term upward trend of oil prices, but the sustainability is questionable, and it may fall again later due to weakening demand [26][27]. - The soda ash market is in a state of oversupply, and the contract price is expected to fluctuate. With no substantial positive factors, the price may fluctuate weakly [50][51][53]. - The supply - demand imbalance in the industrial silicon market persists, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [74]. - The polysilicon market has insufficient endogenous improvement power, with supply - demand remaining loose and continued inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [89]. - The pulp market may continue to oscillate widely in the short term due to weak overseas consumption and slow start of the traditional peak season [104]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices rose this week. Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russian oil companies may support the prices of Middle - Eastern oil types, but the sustainability of sanctions is uncertain. If sanctions ease, oil prices may fall again [7]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Geopolitical tensions have supported oil prices, but historical experience shows that prices may fall without further support. EIA data shows that US crude oil and product inventories decreased this week, and refinery operating rates rebounded. However, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the market is worried about supply over - capacity. On the demand side, although the demand in the second and third quarters was slightly higher than expected, it is expected to be weak in the remaining time of this year and 2026 [8][10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The asphalt futures price rose this week, while the spot price fell slightly. The cost side is affected by oil prices, and the supply side is expected to remain stable overall, but the demand side is seasonally weakening. Short - term prices may follow oil prices, but the sustainability is doubtful, and long - positions should take flexible profit - taking [26][27]. - **Fundamental Changes**: The cost side is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply side has some changes in refinery production plans, with overall operating rates expected to be stable. The demand side is weakening seasonally, and the inventory of both factories and the society has decreased. The production profit has generally increased [28][30][31]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The soda ash futures price fluctuated slightly and was slightly stronger. Supply was affected by equipment maintenance, but overall production remained stable. Downstream demand was mainly for low - price replenishment, and the fundamental driving force was still insufficient. The market was in a state of oversupply, and the price was expected to oscillate, with a possible weakening trend [50][51][53]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: - **Supply**: The weekly production and operating rate of soda ash decreased slightly. Some enterprises had equipment maintenance, and the overall supply remained abundant. In the fourth quarter, supply may be further affected by new capacity [54][55]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash increased again, with heavy - soda ash inventory increasing significantly. The inventory pressure was significant, and the supply - demand imbalance continued to dominate the market [56]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of soda ash was expected to oscillate narrowly, with a weak balance between supply and demand and insufficient upward momentum [63]. - **Glass Import and Export**: The export volume of soda ash in September decreased slightly, but the cumulative export volume from January to September increased significantly compared with last year. The import volume was small [64]. - **Downstream**: The demand for soda ash from the float glass industry was relatively stable, but the industry was still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry was in a weak - balance state, and the inventory pressure might restrict price increases [68][69]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook**: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The supply - demand imbalance persisted, and the price was expected to oscillate within the range of 8500 - 9000 yuan/ton [74]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamental Overview**: The prices of main products in the industrial silicon industry chain were stable. The spot inventory was slowly increasing, and the production continued to rise. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon sectors had different performances, and the export volume decreased slightly in September [74][76][77]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook**: The price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The photovoltaic industry had insufficient endogenous improvement power, with supply - demand remaining loose and continued inventory accumulation. It was advisable to wait and see [88][89]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamental Overview**: The prices of main products in the polysilicon industry chain were stable. The production of polysilicon continued to increase, but the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory of the entire industry chain increased slightly [90][92]. Pulp - **Pulp Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp futures price rose this week, and the spot price of wood pulp showed a differentiated trend. Overseas consumption was weak, and the supply pressure of domestic and foreign pulp mills was still being released. The demand side of the pulp market was slowly increasing, and the traditional peak season started slowly. The price was expected to oscillate widely in the short term [103][104]. - **Fundamental Changes**: - **Paper Pulp Shipment Volume of Main Producing Countries**: In August, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased year - on - year, with different trends for softwood and hardwood pulp [105]. - **Paper Pulp Import Volume**: In September, China's paper pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [104]. - **Paper Pulp Inventory Situation**: The inventory days of global producers' softwood and hardwood pulp showed different trends, and the inventory in major regions and ports increased [115]. - **Downstream Market**: The performance of downstream base papers was still differentiated, and the demand for the pulp market increased slowly [104].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 24 日 苯乙烯：短期跟随原油反弹 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 （《国泰君安期货周报》） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2512 | 6,848 | 6,943 | -95 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2601 | 6,875 | 6,974 | -99 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2610 | 7,387 | 7,374 | 13 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB120EB01 | -27 | -31 | 4 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB01-EB10 | -512 | -400 | -112 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 73 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Henan Provincial Government has issued policies to accelerate the transformation and high-quality development of the livestock industry, particularly focusing on supporting the dairy sector through financial incentives and promoting integrated development of dairy farming and processing [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The government will provide a one-time subsidy of up to 2 million yuan for dairy processing companies that purchase over 10,000 tons of fresh milk annually from social farms [1] - Dairy farms that obtain production licenses for dairy products will also receive a one-time subsidy of up to 2 million yuan [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Dongxing Securities predicts that by 2025, the supply-demand structure of dairy products will further optimize, with signs of a rebound in milk prices, expecting a balance in fresh milk supply and demand in the second half of the year [1] - Donghai Securities notes that with policy support, there is still room for improvement in the penetration rate of the dairy industry, and if milk prices enter an upward cycle, the performance of livestock companies is expected to grow rapidly [1] - Guotai Haitong Securities highlights that the dairy industry is currently at a triple bottom in supply, demand, and inventory, with the reduction of livestock being a key driver for closing the supply-demand gap [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, natural gas, asphalt [1][2][5] - Bearish rebound: L, PP [1] - Bearish consolidation: PVC, glass, soda ash [1][5] - Cautiously bearish: Methanol, urea [2] Core Views - The core driver of the oil price is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down. However, short - term geopolitical conflicts may cause the oil price to rebound [7]. - The prices of LPG, L, PP, PVC, and other products are mainly affected by cost support and supply - demand relationships. Most of them are in a state of supply surplus, and the prices are under pressure, but there may be short - term rebounds [1]. - PX and PTA have the expectation of supply - demand improvement, but the cost side is affected by the oil price, and the prices are expected to be volatile [1][29][32]. - Ethylene glycol has limited upward driving force due to increased supply and inventory accumulation, and is expected to be weak in the short term [35]. - Methanol and urea have weak fundamentals with high supply pressure and limited demand, but there may be some opportunities in the long - term [2][38]. - Natural gas demand is expected to pick up with the temperature drop, and the price may rise [5]. - Asphalt supply - demand is relatively loose, but short - term geopolitical factors may cause price fluctuations [5]. - Glass and soda ash are in a state of supply - demand surplus, and the prices are expected to be weak [5]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly, with WTI rising 0.39%, Brent rising 0.51%, and SC falling 0.66% [6]. - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts lead to a rebound in oil prices, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, buy call options to control risks, and also buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [435 - 445] [9]. LPG - **Market performance**: On October 22, the PG main contract closed at 4130 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [12]. - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The cost end rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand side support declines [13]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [14]. L - **Market performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6874 yuan/ton (- 55) [17]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, and there is a weak rebound. Supply continues to be loose, and the demand side has insufficient restocking power [18]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Short - term follow the cost rebound, short positions leave the market, and wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the range of L [6800 - 7000] [18]. PP - **Market performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6583 yuan/ton (+ 18) [22]. - **Basic logic**: Short - term cost support improves, following the weak rebound of the chemical sector. Supply - demand is weak, and there is high inventory - removal pressure in the future [23]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Short - term follow the cost rebound, reduce short positions, and wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [23]. PVC - **Market performance**: The V2601 closed at 4719 yuan/ton (+ 20) [26]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, following the chemical sector rebound. Domestic demand is weak, and the sustainability of exports is questionable. Supply is loose [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand weakness is difficult to change. The absolute price is undervalued. Participate in the short - term rebound with a light position. Pay attention to the range of V [4600 - 4800] [27]. PX - **Market performance**: The prices of PX futures contracts declined [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side devices have slightly reduced loads, and demand is expected to improve. PXN is not low this year, and the PX - MX spread is narrowing. The cost - end crude oil price rebounds in the short term [29]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is not high. Short positions should stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the future. Pay attention to the range of PX [6410 - 6490] [30]. PTA - **Market performance**: The prices of PTA futures contracts declined [31]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, and new devices are about to be put into production. Terminal demand shows slight improvement, but there is a large inventory - accumulation pressure from October to November [32]. - **Strategy**: The valuation and processing fees are not high. Short positions should stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the future. Pay attention to the range of TA [4450 - 4520] [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market performance**: The prices of ethylene glycol futures contracts declined [34]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic devices increase loads, and overseas devices slightly reduce loads. The arrival and import volume are still low compared to the same period. Supply increases, and inventory accumulates slightly [35]. - **Strategy**: Partially stop losses on short positions. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices during the rebound. Pay attention to the range of EG [4020 - 4100] [36]. Methanol - **Market performance**: The prices of methanol futures contracts declined [37]. - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses the spot price. The supply pressure is large, and the demand has no obvious positive factors. The cost support is weakly stable [38]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [38]. Urea - **Market performance**: Shandong small - particle urea is weakly stable, and the basis slightly weakens [2]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase after the return of maintenance devices, and demand is weak at home and strong abroad. The inventory is accumulating [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. For the long - term, try to go long with a light position [2]. Natural Gas - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: Temperature drops, demand is expected to pick up, and the gas price rebounds. The supply is sufficient [5]. - **Strategy**: Not mentioned Asphalt - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances, but the supply - demand fundamentals are relatively loose [5]. - **Strategy**: Partially stop losses on short positions [5] Glass - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: Domestic demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. The inventory in the factory increases after the festival [5]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand surplus continues. The absolute price is low. Short on the medium - term rebound [5] Soda Ash - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: The inventory in the factory accumulates after the festival, and supply is loose. The demand is mostly rigid [5]. - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. Short on the long - term rebound. Hold the long position of the alkali - glass spread [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international oil price continued to rebound, and the SC11 contract rose 2.33% during the day. The decline in US API crude oil inventories and the US crude oil purchase plan supported the market. In the medium - term, there is still pressure of loose supply and demand, but the downward momentum of oil prices may slow down this week. Uncertainties in international talks will bring new fluctuations [2]. - FU and LU followed the rise driven by the strong cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported but may face supply pressure in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are weak, but its cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [3]. - The asphalt main contract rose nearly 3% driven by the rebound of crude oil. The market is in a tight - balance pattern, and the inventory is slightly decreasing [4]. - The LPG main contract rose about 1.7% led by the rebound of crude oil. The supply increased slightly this week, and the fundamentals improved marginally [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price continued to rebound, with the SC11 contract rising 2.33% during the day. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 298,100 barrels last week, and the US 1 - million - barrel crude oil purchase plan supported the market. OPEC +'s production increase strategy and the decline in demand after the peak consumption season bring medium - term supply - demand pressure, but the downward momentum of oil prices may slow down this week. Uncertainties in international talks will bring new fluctuations [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - FU and LU followed the rise driven by the strong cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical factors, ship - fuel demand, and feedstock improvement, but supply may be loose in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are weak, with sufficient overseas supply. Its cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [3]. Asphalt - The asphalt main contract rose nearly 3% driven by the rebound of crude oil. The national weekly operating rate decreased, and the refinery production plan in November decreased. Terminal demand was affected by weather, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market is in a tight - balance pattern [4]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract rose about 1.7% led by the rebound of crude oil. The supply increased slightly this week. Chemical demand increased, while combustion demand was weak. The inventory at refineries and ports decreased, and the fundamentals improved marginally [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak with downward - trending futures prices. Supply pressure persists, while demand is sluggish. Short - term spot prices are expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices maintained a high - level oscillation. The market trading atmosphere was weak. With a stable supply and resilient demand, short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [1]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price in range oscillation. Cost support was prominent. With supply constraints and mild demand recovery, short - term ADC12 prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated. Supply is abundant, and the second - half production increase of domestic zinc smelters is limited. Short - term prices may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [6]. Copper - Copper prices oscillated. Macro factors and supply shortages support prices, while high prices suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 84000 - 85000 support level [8]. Tin - Tin prices rebounded. Supply is tight, while demand is weak. Future price trends depend on the recovery of Burmese supply. If supply recovers well, prices may weaken; otherwise, they will likely oscillate at a high level [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices rose slightly. Macro risks increased, with cost support but inventory pressure. The mid - term supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Macro factors are favorable, but demand is weak, and supply pressure exists. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures oscillated narrowly. After entering the peak season, supply - demand gaps remain. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, with the main contract in the range of 75000 - 78000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.19% to 20970 yuan/ton, while alumina prices in various regions declined [1]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21050 yuan/ton, and some scrap - refined spreads increased [3]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.32% to 21940 yuan/ton [6]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.12% to 85730 yuan/ton [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.46% to 281300 yuan/ton [10]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton, and 304/2B stainless steel prices increased slightly [12][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.14% to 74100 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [1]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [3]. - **Zinc**: In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [6]. - **Copper**: In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [8]. - **Tin**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 tons [10]. - **Nickel**: In September, China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 tons [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and imports increased by 2.70% to 12.03 million tons [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 tons [17].

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views - Investment ratings for various metals: Gold (★★★, buy and hold), Silver (★★, hold long - term), Copper (★★, hold long - term), Zinc (★, sell on rebound), Lead (★, rebound), Tin (★, rebound), Aluminum (★, rebound), Nickel (★, stabilize), Industrial Silicon (★, range - bound), Polysilicon (★, bullish), Lithium Carbonate (★, cautiously bullish) [2] - Core views: Gold is supported by geopolitical factors and long - term positive factors; silver has short - term volatility but long - term bullish logic; copper has a supply contraction expectation in Q4 and long - term bullishness; zinc has increasing supply and decreasing demand; lead and tin have short - term rebound trends; aluminum has a short - term rebound under certain conditions; nickel is stabilizing at a low level; industrial silicon is range - bound; polysilicon is bullish; lithium carbonate is in a tight supply - demand balance and is cautiously bullish [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - G2 atmosphere may ease, but issues like the US government shutdown, Russia - Ukraine conflict, and Middle East problems are recurring, providing support for gold and silver prices [3] Fundamental Logic - Trump administration is relaxing tariffs, the US government shutdown may continue, there are changes in Japan's political situation, and gold benefits from long - term factors such as global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [4] Strategy Recommendation - Gold's long - term upward logic remains unchanged, with clear support at 960 in the domestic market. For silver, pay attention to sentiment rhythm, and short - term investors should exit and wait, while long - term positions can be held [5] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level, standing firm at the 85,000 support [7] Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, domestic copper production in Q4 may contract, downstream demand is affected, and social inventory accumulates slightly [7] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing copper long positions with trailing stop - loss, new long positions should wait for callbacks. Pay attention to support at 82,500 - 83,000 and resistance at 86,500 - 87,000. Long - term, copper is bullish [8] Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Zinc stops falling and rebounds, testing the 22,000 resistance [10] Industrial Logic - Global refined zinc supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025 - 2026, domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, demand is under pressure, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas persists [10] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term zinc short positions can take profits, wait for rebounds to re - enter. Long - term, zinc is a short - side allocation in the sector [11] Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum price rebounds under pressure, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [13] Industrial Logic - There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, and alumina is in an oversupply situation in the short term [14] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term, buy aluminum on dips, pay attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, with the main operating range of [20,500 - 21,500] [15] Group 6: Nickel Market Review - Nickel price stabilizes slightly, and stainless steel rebounds slightly [17] Industrial Logic - Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances weaken, nickel inventory accumulates, and stainless steel inventory also increases with weak terminal demand [18] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, with the main operating range of nickel at [120,000 - 122,000] [19] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opens high and moves low, oscillating horizontally throughout the day [21] Industrial Logic - Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory has declined for 9 consecutive weeks, demand is strong, and the main capital's position transfer may drive the price up [22] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions in the 2601 contract with the range of [75,700 - 77,000] [23]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2) Core View - The short - term trend of styrene is a negative feedback with a neutral trend intensity. It will be in a volatile pattern. The valuation center of chemical products has moved down due to the rapid decline in crude oil prices. There is a demand for short - position profit - taking around 6,500 yuan/ton for styrene and 5,500 yuan/ton for pure benzene. In October, there is an expectation of reduced production at some domestic major refineries due to overseas sanctions, and the inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene at ports have turned into de - stocking expectations. The downstream demand for styrene is still not optimistic [1][2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - For styrene futures contracts: the price of styrene2512 decreased by 95 to 6,848; styrene2601 decreased by 99 to 6,875; styrene2610 increased by 13 to 7,387. EB - BZ increased by 25 to 1,315. Non - integrated profit decreased by 12 to - 143, and integrated profit decreased by 67 to 689. EB120EB01 increased by 4 to - 27, EB01 - EB10 decreased by 112 to - 512. The N + 1 contract decreased by 20 to 7,460, and the N + 2 contract increased by 20 to 7,390 [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of styrene is 0, with a neutral outlook on its trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1] Spot News - Short - position profit - taking occurs. The valuation of chemical products has declined with the drop in crude oil prices. There is a profit - taking demand for short positions around 6,500 yuan/ton for styrene and 5,500 yuan/ton for pure benzene. In October, some domestic major refineries may reduce production due to overseas sanctions, with an expected monthly output loss of 2 - 4 million tons of pure benzene. The inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene at ports have changed to de - stocking expectations. The market is mainly trading on cost contradictions. The downstream of styrene is in a negative feedback stage, and the downstream demand is not optimistic [2]