1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term long position maintained [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The judgment that oil prices will maintain a weak pattern at the end of the fourth quarter remains unchanged, but the current valuation has been oversold, so there is short - term support for prices to stop falling [16]. - The US PADD5 refining area has changed its trading route and started to transport diesel to Europe, indicating that the arbitrage window is open. Although ICE has set strict new regulations for diesel delivery at European refineries, it is believed that the diesel crack spread can still be short - sold at the top [16]. - Due to the upcoming resumption of operations at the Kuwaiti refinery and the butterfly effect of ICE's restrictions on Russian diesel delivery products, China has begun to export a large amount of fuel oil for arbitrage, so the domestic pressure has been relieved. It is recommended to take profits on the operation of widening the low - high sulfur spread [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Crude oil maintained a bottom - oscillating range this week. After an intraday sharp decline under the expectation of easing in Russia - Ukraine relations, it recovered its losses. The overall fundamentals are healthy, providing bottom support [16]. - **Supply - Demand Changes**: US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded. When oil prices fell this time, shale oil production declined slightly. Refineries increased the diesel output rate due to arbitrage demand, and the overall on - balance - sheet inventory remained healthy. OPEC's short - term supply remained flat. Venezuela had strong production and supply. CPC Terminal's exports remained weak, and Russia's exports were not blocked [16]. - **Macro - Politics**: At the macro level, the Bank of Japan expressed an expectation of interest rate hikes this week. Meanwhile, the number of US jobless claims was significantly lower than expected, weakening the expectation of interest rate cuts. India cut interest rates by 25bp this week and raised the initial GDP growth rate from 6.8% to 7.3%. The overall global macro situation was neutral this week. At the political level, the geopolitical premium has almost disappeared. Putin visited India to promote energy - related negotiations. Hungary expressed its intention to acquire overseas assets of Russian energy companies, while Russia's shadow fleet was frequently attacked [16]. - **Short - Term Oil Price Impact Factors & Assessment**: Factors such as European and American policies are neutral, geopolitical factors are short - term positive, macro factors are neutral, non - OPEC supply - demand is short - term positive, and OPEC supply - demand is short - term negative and long - term positive. The short - term view is to hold long positions in oil prices, hold short positions in the diesel crack spread, end the operation of widening the low - high sulfur spread, and conduct short - term observation [18]. 3.2 Macro & Geopolitical - **Macro Short - term High - frequency Indicators**: Include indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term interest rate spread, which show certain trends and relationships with WTI oil prices [44]. - **Macro Medium - term Forecast Indicators**: Such as the eurozone investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, the US GDP growth rate forecast, and the global major countries' GDP growth rate forecast, which reflect the medium - term macro - economic situation [51]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil countries (Iran + Libya + Venezuela + Russia) are presented, and their relationships with WTI oil prices are analyzed [54]. 3.3 Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: Analyze the WTI crude oil forward curve and the near - far structure of various crude oils, and show the changes in the WTI crude oil M1/M4 spread and M1 price [58]. - **Inter - regional Spreads**: Analyze spreads such as Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI, and show their historical ranges and recent trends [60][62]. - **Product Spreads**: Analyze the forward curve of LGO diesel and the near - far structure of refined oil products, as well as spreads such as RB/HO and LGO/RB [68][72]. - **Crack Spreads**: Analyze the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the United States [76][79][82]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - **Supply: OPEC & OPEC+**: Summarize the results of OPEC's past meetings, including production cuts and increases. Present data on OPEC's production, quota, idle capacity, and unexpected shutdowns, as well as the production and export forecasts of OPEC 12 member countries and major OPEC+ member countries [88][90]. - **Supply: US**: The SPR's funds have been significantly cut from $1.3 billion to $171 million. There are various policies and news related to the oil industry, such as the possible relaxation of sanctions on Venezuela, sanctions on Iran, and the release of a signal to replenish the SPR at low prices. Analyze data on US oil wells, rigs, production, and exports [123][125]. - **Supply: Other**: Provide dynamic forecasts of crude oil production in countries such as Canada, Norway, and Brazil, as well as China's crude oil production [132]. 3.5 Crude Oil Demand - **Demand: US**: Analyze the direct demand of refineries, including crude oil feeding, refinery capacity utilization, and refinery shutdown capacity. Also analyze the import and export of crude oil, the production and demand of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene, and the import and export of refined oil products. Summarize the overall production, demand, and net export of refined oil products, as well as micro - demand indicators [138][141][144][150][153][155]. - **Demand: China**: Analyze the direct demand of refineries, including crude oil feeding, import, and the operating rates and profits of major and independent refineries. Also analyze the production and demand of gasoline and diesel, the export of refined oil products, and micro - demand indicators [160][163][166][171][174]. - **Demand: Europe**: Analyze the direct demand of refineries, including the operating rates of 16 European countries' refineries, crude oil feeding, and refinery profits. Also analyze the import of crude oil and the production of refined oil products [179][182][184]. - **Demand: India**: Present data on India's crude oil feeding, refinery operating rates, crude oil imports, and demand [189]. - **Demand: Other**: Analyze the average daily speeds of different types of oil tankers and the oil - shipping quality models [193][196]. 3.6 Crude Oil Inventory - **Inventory: US**: Analyze the commercial inventory of US crude oil, the available days of inventory, the Cushing inventory, and the inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene, as well as their available days [203][205][207]. - **Inventory: China**: Analyze the port inventory of Chinese crude oil, the social, factory, and commercial inventories of gasoline and diesel, and the production - sales ratios of gasoline and diesel [212][215][218]. - **Inventory: Europe**: Analyze the ARA inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and naphtha, the ARA inventory of aviation kerosene, and the total refined oil inventory. Also analyze the inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, naphtha, crude oil, and total refined oil in 16 European countries [223][226][228][231]. - **Inventory: Singapore**: Analyze the inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil in Singapore [235]. - **Inventory: Fujairah**: Analyze the port inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil in Fujairah [240]. - **Inventory: Maritime**: Analyze the floating storage of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, heavy oil, light oil, and crude oil at sea, as well as the total floating storage of VLCC and Suezmax and their relationships with WTI oil prices [245][249][253]. 3.7 Meteorological Disasters - There are no significant meteorological disasters. The global storm model shows little impact on southern China, there are no meteorological warnings in the Middle East, the Canadian wildfire season is over, and the rainy - season peak in the US Gulf of Mexico has passed [257][259]. 3.8 Alternative Data - Analyze alternative data such as the in - transit supply of crude oil by sea, the crude oil transportation demand model, the shipping freight in the Arabian Sea, and the probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked according to media polls, and their relationships with WTI oil prices [267].

震荡下行，月内探底回升 范阿骄 Tel：025-68908477 Email:fanejiao@ftol.com.cn 从业资格号: F3054801 投资咨询证号：Z0016954 摘要 PVC 月报 金融研究院 研究报告 –PVC 月报 2025 年 12 月 金融研究院 11 月 PVC 主力合约（V2601）价格呈"先抑 后稳"走势，月内最低触及 4,456 元/吨。 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需 求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续弱势震荡格局， 价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏 空，资金呈多空博弈后净减仓态势。 一、行情回顾 （1）PVC 价格先抑后稳，月末企稳回升 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续 弱势震荡格局，价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏空，资金呈多空 博弈后净减仓态势。 11 月 PVC 价格走势震荡下行，月内探底回升。11 月 PVC 期货主力合约（V2601） 整体呈现"前期探底、月末企稳"的震荡下行后回升态势。全月价格重心较 10 月下移，截至 11 月 28 日，V2601 合约收盘价 454 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is entering a potentially volatile December after a weak month with minimal price fluctuations, leading market participants to focus on upcoming production negotiations, supply structure changes, and cross-regional logistics [1][3] Group 1: Oil Price Forecasts - The forecast for oil prices in 2026 has been revised down to approximately $62 per barrel, primarily due to anticipated oversupply [4] - Various institutions predict inventory increases ranging from 500,000 to 4.2 million barrels per day, indicating a consensus on rising supply despite differing estimates [4] - The average WTI price for next year is expected to be around $59, slightly below the cost line for some new well blocks, providing a natural support for future oil prices [4] Group 2: Shipping and Regional Price Structures - Shipping costs are expected to ease, potentially accelerating the flow of Atlantic Basin crude oil to Asian markets, which will further impact regional price structures [4] - The average price of ICE Brent from January to November 2025 is projected at $68.8 per barrel, showing a significant decline from the previous year, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding demand uncertainty [4] Group 3: Energy Market Dynamics - Global energy companies are actively involved in block acquisitions, pipeline asset consolidations, and major infrastructure adjustments, affecting market dynamics [2][4] - Rising natural gas demand in various regions has led to prices reaching multi-year highs, while some major smelting groups have announced production cuts, driving metal prices to record levels [2][4] - The tightening supply-demand trend across different commodities is expected to have spillover effects on energy costs, alternative demand, and related investment sentiment [2][4] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events remain a core variable affecting supply and demand, with key pipelines experiencing temporary disruptions due to drone attacks or technical issues, leading to increased shipping insurance rates [5] - Energy policies and project decisions in multiple countries, including an increase in natural gas usage and adjustments in overseas project financing, add layers of complexity to regional markets [5] - December is seen as a critical window for supply negotiations, climate factors, and geopolitical interactions, with the potential for supply-demand balance to be disrupted [5]

高盛认为，近期铜价上涨主要基于对未来市场紧缺的预期，而非当前基本面支撑，预计2026年铜价将在1万至1.1万美元区间震荡。该行预测今年铜供应 将比需求多出约50万吨，2026年逐步趋于平衡，真正的短缺要到2029年才会出现。 在最新发布的研报中，高盛的Aurelia Waltham分析师团队写道， 近期铜价上涨主要基于对未来市场紧缺的预期，而非当前基本面支撑。该行预计今年 铜供应将比需求多出约50万吨，铜短缺要到2029年才会出现。 高盛将2026年上半年伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜均价预测上调至10,710美元，反映美国潜在关税政策推动铜流入的影响，但下半年或有小幅回调。此 外，美国以外地区的"极低"库存问题可通过更高的地区升水和更紧的伦敦金属交易所（LME）价差得到缓解。 LME铜价周三在创下每吨1.154万美元的历史新高，主要由于市场担心美国征收关税前金属大量涌入造成全球供应紧张。周四亚太地区矿业股跟随走 高，洛阳钼业A股一度上涨6%，Capstone Copper澳洲股票一度涨8.2%。 铜仍被高盛视为工业金属中的"首选"，受全球电网与能源基础设施投资拉动，长期供需结构趋紧，但短期内市场仍处于小幅过剩状 ...

3 December 2025 | 1:03PM GMT Commodities Research METAL VIEWS Copper Our Favourite Industrial Metal as Supply Lowers Prices of Aluminium/Lithium/Iron Ore Aurelia Waltham +44(20)7051-2547 | aurelia.waltham@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Eoin Dinsmore +65-6889-2401 | eoin.dinsmore@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Lavinia Forcellese +44(20)7774-9243 | lavinia.forcellese@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, highlighting the complex interplay of supply, demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices were in high - level oscillations on Tuesday. Fundamentals include statements from the US Treasury Secretary, ADP employment data, and various inventory changes. The strategy is to take partial profits on gold in the short - term and wait for buying opportunities at lower support levels [1]. - **Silver**: Overseas market tightness re - emerged, and short - term long positions are recommended [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices hit a new high. The proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts in London copper increased significantly, indicating a seller's market. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract rose slightly. With increased production capacity and improved demand, it is expected to oscillate upward [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract declined. With increased supply and stable demand, it is expected to oscillate weakly [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply may decrease in December, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to move within the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply is increasing, and demand is expected to decrease in December. The short - term upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract rose. Production is stable, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price center has moved up due to a short - squeeze, and in the long - term, it depends on the progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Prices rose significantly. Supply is tight, and there are concerns about short - squeeze risks. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are at a large discount. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a slight discount. It is recommended to exit and wait, and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a premium. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans continued to decline. Supply is mixed, and demand is in a game. The US soybeans are in oscillation, and the domestic market depends on tariff policies and production [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices varied regionally. Supply and demand are temporarily tight, but new production is expected to increase. The futures price is expected to oscillate upward [5][6]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market declined slightly. Supply is high in some areas and affected by floods in others, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term but oscillate overall [6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices oscillated weakly, and domestic cotton prices rebounded. International supply and demand are affected by planting area changes, and domestic demand is mixed. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices declined, and spot prices decreased slightly. Supply pressure is decreasing, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: Futures and spot prices declined. Supply is abundant, and demand is seasonally increasing, but prices are expected to weaken seasonally [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply pressure is rising but slowing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [7]. - **PVC**: The price continued to oscillate at the bottom. Supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weakening. It is recommended to short [8]. - **Glass**: The price rebounded from the bottom. Supply is affected by cold - repair, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PP**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose and then fell. Supply is affected by sanctions and production plans, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Styrene**: The price of the main contract oscillated slightly. Supply and demand are improving marginally, and in the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy styrene profit at low prices [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is affected by coal prices. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different commodities having their own supply - demand situations, price trends, and influencing factors. For most commodities, the short - term trend is mainly volatile, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors such as supply - demand changes, policy adjustments, and geopolitical situations [2][3] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US refined oil and crude oil inventories. External market oil prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Although the SPM - 3 of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium is expected to resume operation earlier than planned, the supply - demand surplus expansion determines that the oil price center has downward pressure [2] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's feed demand was previously boosted by coking profits and quota shortages, but the early issuance of crude oil quotas may divert feed demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil is pressured by the weakening of refined oil cracking. The short - term supply pressure of both has been relieved, but the medium - term supply is still in a loose pattern [19] - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiation in spot prices. The weekly shipment volume has been below 400,000 tons since the middle of the month, and the commercial inventory destocking rhythm has slowed down significantly. It is expected that BU will continue to be weak [20] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday volatility. Silver's upward momentum slowed after hitting a record high, and gold broke through the previous high. Overall, precious metals should be treated as volatile, and chasing high prices should be cautious. Platinum has a supply gap this year, and palladium's supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, with platinum performing stronger than palladium [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, approaching the short - term moving average. SHFE copper shows certain resilience in the previous trading intensive area of 88,300 - 88,500 yuan. Long positions can be held based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions has increased slightly for two consecutive days, and the spot discount has slightly widened. The aluminum market's fundamental contradictions are limited, and the seasonal inventory performance is neutral. The casting aluminum - alloy and SHFE aluminum price gap may narrow at the end of the year [5] - **Alumina**: Overnight, alumina hit a new low since listing. The domestic operating capacity is at a historical high, the inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are rising, and the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change. It will mainly operate weakly before large - scale production cuts [6] - **Zinc**: The domestic fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, while overseas zinc ingots are in short supply. LME zinc is operating at a high level, and the export window is open, pulling up the domestic market. The bottom support of zinc is strong, but consumption is restricted. SHFE zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open, transmitting the overseas surplus pressure to the domestic market. The domestic social inventory is at a low level of 35,000 tons, and the subsequent inventory accumulation pressure is limited. SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down, and SHFE tin fluctuated with a positive line above 300,000 yuan. It is not recommended to chase high prices, and medium - and long - term short positions can be paired with hedging strategies [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market is driven down by the correction of polysilicon prices. The current supply - demand shows a double - weak pattern, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The subsequent focus should be on the price trend of DMC [10] Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Night - session steel prices declined. Thread's apparent demand and production both decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil's demand declined, production continued to rise, and inventory decreased slowly. The overall steel mills are in a loss state, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The steel price is expected to continue the rebound trend with fluctuations [12] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market shows a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The global shipment is strong, the domestic arrival volume is high, and the port inventory is in an accumulating trend. The demand for iron ore has the possibility of further weakening. The market expects policy benefits, and the short - term trend is mainly volatile [13] - **Coke**: The intraday coke price fluctuated strongly. The market has certain expectations for downstream restocking. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The coke price is expected to maintain the rebound rhythm in the short term [14] - **Coking Coal**: The intraday coking coal price fluctuated strongly. The market may expect downstream restocking. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The intraday manganese silicon price fluctuated. The spot price of manganese ore has increased due to the rebound of the futures market. The supply of silicon manganese is decreasing, and the inventory is slowly accumulating. The bottom support strength needs to be observed [16] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The intraday silicon ferrosilicon price fluctuated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and semi - coke prices. The overall demand has some resilience. The supply of silicon ferrosilicon is decreasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The bottom support strength needs to be observed [17] Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: The urea futures price continued to fluctuate upward. The production enterprises are continuously reducing inventory, and short - term exports relieve some supply - side pressure. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a certain range [21] - **Methanol**: The night - session methanol price fell slightly. The port inventory is expected to remain at a high level, and the production enterprises are accumulating inventory. The market is in a state of multi - empty game, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a certain range in the short term [22] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene futures price continued to fluctuate at a low level. The weekly device operating rate decreased slightly, the domestic arrival volume is expected to be high, and the downstream demand decreased. The market is expected to continue the low - level fluctuation pattern [23] - **Styrene**: The cost side of styrene is under pressure due to the continuous inventory accumulation expectation of pure benzene. The supply - demand structure is stable, and it is expected to run weakly in the short term [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene's chemical - downstream demand has some support, and the price has a slight upward trend. The overall supply of polyethylene changes little, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is weak [25] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC shows an oscillating trend. The export situation may improve, and the supply pressure may ease. It is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda shows an oscillating and weakening trend, with high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [26] - **PX and PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA are driven down by the decline in oil prices. PTA continues to reduce production, and the short - term demand impact is negative. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA is expected to continue the cost - driven logic before the Spring Festival [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly production of ethylene glycol decreased, and the supply has marginal improvement. The price is mainly volatile, but it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival, and the medium - term trend is weak [28] - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Short fiber has no new investment pressure, and the price mainly fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle chip demand weakens, and the production efficiency is still poor. The long - term pressure is over - capacity, and the price is mainly cost - driven [29] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean planting progress is different, with Brazil normal and Argentina slow. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level, and the price is under pressure. The 05 contract has reached the upper edge of the oscillation range, and the upward breakthrough needs further observation [33] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Palm oil is in a state of inventory accumulation, with supply reduction having marginal benefits. The price is expected to be in a range - bound state. Soybean oil is expected to be supported by the expected strong performance of US soybeans [34] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price continues to oscillate at the bottom. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly in the process of inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [35] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans show a sideways and slightly strong oscillation. High - protein soybeans have a tight supply, and US soybeans are expected to be strong. The short - term focus should be on the domestic spot market and policy guidance [36] - **Corn**: The spot price drives the corn futures to oscillate at a high level. The supply - demand mismatch still exists, and the short - term 01 contract should be observed, while the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a callback [37] - **Hogs**: Hog futures fluctuate narrowly, and the spot price continues to decline slightly. The short - term supply and demand are both under pressure, and the medium - term price is likely to have a second bottom - testing [38] - **Eggs**: Egg futures rose sharply during the day and then fell back. The far - month contracts are not recommended to chase high prices, and the near - month contracts may oscillate weakly [39] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell slightly. The domestic cotton supply pressure is not large, and the new cotton sales progress is fast. After the breakthrough of Zhengzhou cotton, the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities, and the operation should be temporarily observed [40] - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is relatively sufficient, and the US sugar price is under pressure. The domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good, and the subsequent production situation should be concerned [41] - **Apples**: The apple futures price oscillates at a high level. The short - term price is strong due to the decrease in inventory, but the long - term far - month contracts may have inventory pressure. The focus should be on the inventory reduction situation [42] - **Wood**: The wood futures price oscillates. The low inventory provides certain support, and the operation should be temporarily observed [43] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price rose sharply yesterday. The domestic port inventory is still at a high level, and the demand is weak. The medium - term trend is expected to be in the range - bound state, and the operation should be temporarily observed or short - term [44] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market fell with reduced trading volume, and the index futures contracts all closed down. The short - term macro - liquidity factor is uncertain, and the strategy should be mainly observation and defense [45] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures oscillate and consolidate. The bond market sentiment is generally cautious, and the short - term bond market is difficult to break through the oscillating market. The long - end interest rate lacks the basis for a large - scale increase, and the yield curve may flatten slightly [46]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 02, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - As of December 02, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Synthetic rubber rose nearly 4%, while polysilicon, asphalt, palladium, platinum, and industrial silicon fell over 2%. Different futures varieties are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and economic data, leading to different price trends and future expectations [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 02, domestic futures main contracts had mixed results. Synthetic rubber, silver, pulp, coke, and container shipping to Europe routes had significant increases, while polysilicon, asphalt, palladium, platinum, and industrial silicon had notable drops. Stock index futures and bond futures also mostly declined [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - The US ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. After the Indonesian copper mine accident, production is planned to restart in phases from Q2 2026, easing the tight supply expectation. December domestic copper production is expected to increase. Demand is supported by the power grid and energy storage, but the buying interest has decreased. The CSPT plans to cut production by over 10% in 2026, but the upside for copper prices is limited [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate decreased during the day. In November, domestic production increased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate was high. In December, production is expected to continue to increase, but there may be seasonal production cuts in salt - lake lithium extraction. Demand has entered a stable growth stage, and the supply - demand balance has slightly eased, with the price consolidating at a high level [10][12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and 8 countries will pause production increases in Q1 2026. The demand peak has ended, and US oil inventories have increased. The number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and geopolitical tensions may cause supply disruptions. Crude oil is in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate increased slightly last week, and the December production is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory ratio is at a low level. With the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15] 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but the start - up rate of the plastic weaving industry decreased. Supply has increased with new capacity and some maintenance. Downstream demand is in the off - peak season, and the price increase space is limited [16][17] 3.2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate remained stable. Downstream demand, especially for agricultural films, is in the off - peak season. With new capacity coming on stream, the supply has increased. The price increase space is limited [18] 3.2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate increased, and the downstream start - up rate was stable. The cancellation of India's BIS policy and anti - dumping tax has limited impact. The inventory is high, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season in December, so the upside is limited [19][20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. The supply may decrease at the end of the year, and the inventory is shifting to the upstream. Downstream demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea prices were strong during the day. The gas - based plants are starting to cut production. Agricultural demand is mainly for reserve purchases, and compound fertilizer plants are in the winter storage production stage. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is supported, so the price is expected to be strong in the short term [23]

自11月下旬以来，在减产和政策消息的影响下，多晶硅期货价格重心逐渐上移，目前主力合约期价逼近 60000元/吨大关。预计后期在"强预期"与"弱现实"的激烈博弈下，多晶硅期货将以宽幅震荡行情为主。 此外，上周光伏组件生产成本下降，现货价格持平。据Mysteel数据，截至11月28日，光伏组件(N型 585W)市场均价为0.68元/瓦，环比持平;即期生产成本为0.715元/瓦，环比下降0.011元/瓦;即期单瓦净利 润为-0.035元。 首先，硅片环节：高库存压制价格，行业进入主动减产调整期。为应对供需失衡，11月宁夏、云南、浙 江等地多家企业陆续减产。据SMM数据，11月国内硅片产量为54.37GW，环比下滑10.35%。但供应收 缩未能扭转市场颓势，在海外需求萎缩、外协代工订单减少的背景下，硅片库存持续累积。据SMM数 据，截至11月27日，国内硅片库存已攀升至19.5GW，周环比增加4.17%。为缓解库存压力，企业提升出 货意愿，头部厂商带头下调报价，11月各尺寸硅片均价已跌破现金成本，其中N型210R的价格压力最为 突出。进入12月，企业减产幅度扩大且年内生产配额基本完成，硅片定价逐步转向成本逻辑。鉴于需 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the situation where neither supply nor demand can provide strong drivers, the price trend of industrial silicon shows a pattern of "stable spot prices and fluctuating futures prices." The futures price fluctuations mainly come from cost change expectations, capital sentiment, and event disturbances. Limited supply reduction, insufficient demand, and high inventory are important constraints on price breakthroughs, while cost is an important support at the lower end. The futures price may experience short - term pulse - type increases but lacks a sustainable trend. In the short term, the industrial silicon price is likely to remain range - bound. To achieve a trending market, new drivers are needed [1][30]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - side Situation - In the southwest region, after entering the dry season, due to rising electricity prices and increased costs, the operating rates of some factories in Yunnan and Sichuan have significantly decreased. The weekly output has dropped by about 50% from the annual high, which is in line with seasonal characteristics. In the northwest region, production remains strong. Due to the advantage of coal - power costs and the ability to use hedging tools, enterprises can maintain a relatively high operating rate. As a result, the weekly national total output has decreased by less than 10% from the annual high. It is estimated that there is still some room for production decline in the southwest region. According to statistics, the production cost in Xinjiang is about 8,500 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that in the southwest region. If the northwest region maintains its operation, the overall production contraction is expected to be limited, and the impact of weather on production in the northwest needs to be monitored [6]. Demand - side Situation - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures market focuses on warehouse receipts and the establishment of platform companies, with the near - month prices showing strength. However, from the perspective of the industrial chain supply - demand, the marginal change is not optimistic. In December, the production schedule of the downstream silicon wafer segment is 45.7GW, a decrease of about 16% compared to November's 54.37GW. The production schedule of the silicon material segment is 11.35 tons, with a limited month - on - month decline. The polysilicon inventory of silicon enterprises has reached 28 tons, and the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is increasing. Although the silicon material price is temporarily stable, with N - type material quoted at 50,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, it is mainly a strategic price - holding behavior. If the platform company is established, the industry operating rate is expected to remain controlled, and the actual demand for industrial silicon will be insufficient [17]. - **Organic silicon**: The organic silicon industry has a greater impact on the industrial silicon market in terms of sentiment and expectations. After facing profit pressure and weak prices, the industry held a meeting, established a coordination mechanism, and planned to implement a production - reduction plan in early December, while also raising the spot price. Before December, the production of organic silicon DMC showed a slight increase, and the subsequent production - reduction plan is expected to have a relatively limited impact on the demand for industrial silicon. After the downstream profit is restored, the willingness to suppress the price of upstream raw materials may decrease, which will improve the price expectation of industrial silicon to some extent. However, if the production - reduction plan is fully implemented, the procurement of industrial silicon will be difficult to increase in a certain period [22]. - **Silicon - aluminum alloy and exports**: Driven by the industrial manufacturing and automotive industries, the operating rate of aluminum alloy has recently increased. After the end of the export rush, the export of industrial silicon decreased significantly in October, which cannot change the overall weak demand pattern [29].