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工业盈利:外需敞口与弹性分析
一瑜中的· 2025-06-24 14:06
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to analyze the impact of external environment changes on corporate profitability, particularly in the industrial sector, and the necessary policy responses to stabilize profits [2][3]. Group 1: External Demand Exposure - The estimated external demand exposure for industrial revenue is approximately 16.2% [5][20]. - The calculation of external demand exposure is defined as the total export value of industrial enterprises divided by total revenue, with 2024 total exports projected at 25.5 trillion and industrial revenue at 156 trillion [5][20]. Group 2: Export Profit Elasticity - Two pathways are used to estimate the elasticity of industrial profits to export changes: one focusing on revenue and profit margins, and the other on total output [6][8]. - The elasticity of industrial profits to exports is estimated to be between 0.41% and 0.43%, meaning a 1% change in exports could lead to a 0.41% to 0.43% change in industrial profits [21][23]. Group 3: Domestic Demand Elasticity - The elasticity of industrial profits to final consumption is estimated at 0.54%, while to capital formation it is 0.70%, indicating that changes in domestic demand have a significant impact on industrial profits [31][32]. - A 1% increase in final consumption is estimated to increase industrial profits by approximately 0.05 trillion, while a similar increase in capital formation could raise profits by about 0.06 trillion [32]. Group 4: Policy Response Requirements - To stabilize industrial profits, a 1% decline in exports may require a 0.76% increase in final consumption growth or a 0.59% increase in capital formation growth [35][36]. - The required policy response is greater for consumption than for investment, reflecting the broader impact of consumption across various sectors [36]. Group 5: Industry-Level Insights - Industries with high export elasticity include textiles and metal smelting, while those with high elasticity to final consumption include food and tobacco, and paper and education [45][49]. - Industries that could benefit from increased investment include non-metallic products and metal smelting, which have high elasticity to capital formation [49].
广东发文促进经济持续向好服务做强国内大循环 将在稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期方面发力
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 13:48
在着力扩大有效投资方面,用好国家政策和资金支持,加快"两重"项目实施,做好项目谋划储备,激发 民间投资活力,加力公共服务投资,全力推动投资回升。其中提到,扎实推进专项债券"自审自发"工 作,加快债券发行使用,优化额度分配机制,向项目准备充分、投资效率较高、资金使用效益好的地市 倾斜,指导国有企业按规定承接更多专项债券用作项目资本金。 (文章来源:新华财经) 在千方百计稳定就业方面,聚焦重点群体就业,拿出更多有力措施,加强政策支撑、培训赋能、风险预 研,着力稳定现有岗位、拓展就业空间,确保就业形势稳定。其中提到,加强对企业的用工指导、政策 咨询、劳动关系协调等服务,加快兑现扩岗补助、担保贷款、就业补贴等政策措施。 在深挖潜力提振消费方面,深入实施提振消费专项行动,推动大宗消费更新升级,激发服务消费潜力, 放大新兴消费带动效应,挖掘消费增量、释放消费活力。其中提到,鼓励各地结合实际通过发放购房补 贴、消费券等,加大对首次置业居民、多子女家庭、赡养老人家庭、农业转移人口等的购房支持力度。 新华财经北京6月24日电为有效应对当前我省外部环境不确定性因素增多、经济下行压力较大的形势, 统筹实施扩大内需战略和深化供给侧结 ...
“国补”下半场:1380亿分批下达,苹果直营渠道首次参与
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-06-24 13:04
6月24日,南方财经记者在淘宝上搜索"国补",顺利领取补贴,可以用于购买部分产品,电子品类最高可减500元。 此前的6月20日,新华社从有关部门获悉,消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策没有变化,补贴资金使用进度符合预期,第三、四季度 中央资金将陆续下达。今年1月和4月已分别下达两批共计1620亿元中央资金,支持地方做好一、二季度消费品以旧换新工作。 后续还将有1380亿元中央资金在三、四季度分批有序下达。 南方财经记者还发现,6月24日,苹果公司在其中国官方网站发布消息称,指定产品享国家补贴,至高省2000元人民币,仅限 Apple store在线商店(北京收货地址)及零售店(上海)。据悉,这是苹果公司在中国的直营渠道首次参加以旧换新国家补贴活 动。 | 百亿补贴 深睡尊享雅兰官方政府补贴天然 | | --- | | 乳胶床垫名牌双人卧厚弹簧十大 | | 乳胶 软硬适中 成年人 | | 床垫主要材质 床垫软硬度 适用人群 | | ¥1954.15 直播价 1万+人付款 | | 11直播中 国家补贴15% 赠运费险 | | 回头客4万 雅兰官方旗舰店 > | 6月24日,在淘宝上搜索"国补",就可以领到相应补贴。 新的 ...
六部门推出19项举措提振消费 为三大重点领域注入金融动能
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 12:21
Core Viewpoint - The recent guidance from the People's Bank of China and other departments aims to enhance financial support for consumption, establishing a multi-tiered financial service system to meet diverse financing needs and stimulate high-quality consumption growth [1][2]. Group 1: Key Areas of Focus - The guidance outlines 19 key measures across six areas: enhancing consumer capacity, expanding financial supply in consumption sectors, unlocking consumer potential, improving consumption supply efficiency, optimizing the consumption environment, and ensuring policy support [2]. - The focus is on three main consumption areas: goods consumption, service consumption, and new consumption, with specific strategies to activate market potential in these sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Support Mechanisms - The current financial service system includes banks, consumer finance companies, and auto finance companies, with credit support being the primary channel, complemented by bond and equity financing [4]. - The guidance emphasizes the need for banks to optimize credit products and enhance support for first-time loans, renewals, and credit loans to improve the sustainability of consumer financial services [4][5]. Group 3: Enhancing Consumer Environment - Improving the consumer environment is crucial for stimulating consumption, with measures to optimize payment services, strengthen credit systems, and protect consumer rights [6]. - The guidance highlights the importance of increasing residents' income levels and improving consumption infrastructure to support market expansion and quality enhancement [5][6].
全国政协十四届常委会第十二次会议举行全体会议,围绕“进一步深化经济体制改革,推进中国式现代化”进行大会发言
news flash· 2025-06-24 10:56
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to combine an effective market with a proactive government to build a high-efficiency, standardized, fair competition, and fully open national unified market [1] - Suggestions include improving long-term mechanisms to encourage and guide private economic organizations to participate in national technological breakthroughs [1] - Recommendations focus on enhancing the transformation mechanism of scientific and technological achievements to promote the integration of technology and economy, accelerating the formation of new productive forces [1] Group 2 - There is a call to address urgent issues in the livelihood sector to expand domestic demand, promoting high-quality development through "investment in people" [1] - Proposals include deepening fiscal and tax system reforms to establish a clear responsibility and authority framework, coordinating financial resources, and achieving regional balance in central and local fiscal relations [1]
暴跌超80%,年内第三惨!强研发+高成长中小盘股揭秘
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-06-24 10:53
Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3420.57 points, up 1.15%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.68% to 10217.63 points [1][5] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 14146 billion, a significant increase of 2920 billion compared to the previous day [1] - Key sectors such as electric power equipment, non-bank financials, and retail saw gains exceeding 2%, with solid performance from heavyweight stocks and a notable shift towards growth styles [1][6] Group 2 - *ST Jiuyou's stock plummeted over 80% after being placed in a delisting risk warning, with a market value reduced to 1.2 billion [2][4] - The company reported a negative net asset value at the end of 2023 and received an audit report with no opinion for its 2024 annual report, triggering delisting conditions [4] - Other companies in the delisting process also experienced severe declines, with some dropping over 70% on their first day of delisting [4] Group 3 - The electric power equipment index surged by 2.85%, and non-bank financials rose by 2.68%, indicating a bullish trend in these sectors [6] - The lithium battery sector saw significant gains, with multiple companies announcing advancements in solid-state battery technology and production timelines [6] - The humanoid robot sector also rebounded, with indices related to humanoid robots and associated technologies rising over 4% [6] Group 4 - A focus on high-growth small-cap stocks with significant R&D investment is highlighted, with 36 stocks identified that have over 20% of revenue allocated to R&D and projected net profit growth rates exceeding 40% from 2025 to 2027 [8] - Notable companies include Tai En Kang, which has seen a year-to-date increase of nearly 135%, driven by a strong pipeline of self-developed drugs [8][9] - The average increase for these identified companies is close to 19% year-to-date, outperforming the broader market [8]
海通证券晨报-20250624
Haitong Securities· 2025-06-24 10:45
国泰海通晨报 2025 年 06 月 24 日 [Table_Summary] 1、我们提出了有别于市场的研究框架,并在过往到验证。基于此,我们认为猪价在未来或先稳 后降,并在年末降至低位。产能去化是行业当前主题,关注价格、政策、疫病的催化。考虑当前 行业趋势及估值低位,重点推荐生猪养殖板块,推荐牧原股份、温氏股份、巨星农牧、神农集团, 相关标的德康农牧。 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话:021-38676666 登记编号:S0880511010007 2、经济、资金和供需演绎下的债市下行空间。 3、离岛免税销售降幅明显收窄、客单价强势反弹,数据修复迹象逐步确立。叠加封关政策推进、 "即买即退"落地与对美加税背景,免税行业迎来配置新窗口。 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 行业专题研究:农业《猪周期:产能去化的趋势与节奏》 2025-06-20 林逸丹(分析师)021-38676666、王艳君(分析师)021-38676666、巩健(分析师)021-38676666 年初至今价格极致稳定的背后。年初至今价格十分平稳,代表了供需在这一价格水 ...
促消费!央行等六部门发布19条举措加强金融支持
Wind万得· 2025-06-24 10:28
6月24日,央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》,要求夯实宏观经 济金融基础,支持居民就业增收,优化保险保障,积极培育消费需求;强化结构性货币政策工具激 励,加大对服务消费重点领域信贷支持,发展债券、股权等多元化融资渠道。 中国人民银行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》 贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署,完善扩大消费长效机制,更好满足消费领域金融服务需求,近日中 国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部、金融监管总局、中国证监会等六部门联合印发《关于 金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》(以下简称《意见》)。 《意见》以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,深入践行金融工作的政治性、人民性,引导金 融机构从消费供给和需求两端强化金融服务,满足各类主体多样化融资需求,推动扩大高质量消费供 给,助力释放消费增长潜能。《意见》从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消 费潜力、促进提升消费供给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个方面提出19项重点举措。 《意见》指出,要夯实宏观经济金融基础,支持居民就业增收,优化保险保障,积极培育消费需求。强 化结构性货 ...
重大利好!刚刚,重磅发布!
券商中国· 2025-06-24 10:09
事关提振和扩大消费,央行等六部门重磅发文。 6月24日,据中国人民银行网站消息,近日中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部、金融监管总 局、中国证监会等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》(以下简称《意见》)。 《意见》指出,要夯实宏观经济金融基础,支持居民就业增收,优化保险保障,积极培育消费需求。强化结构 性货币政策工具激励,加大对服务消费重点领域信贷支持,发展债券、股权等多元化融资渠道。 《意见》强调,要聚焦消费重点领域加大金融支持,结合消费场景和特点创新金融产品,持续推动消费领域金 融服务提质增效。优化消费支付服务,健全消费领域信用体系建设,加强金融消费权益保护。 下一步,中国人民银行将会同有关部门加快推动《意见》各项政策实施落地,强化跟踪监测,指导金融机构持 续加大消费领域金融支持力度,为更好发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用提供有力金融支撑。 券商中国记者梳理了《意见》的十大要点: 1、实施好货币政策,加强逆周期和跨周期调节,综合运用准备金、再贷款再贴现、公开市场操 作等多种货币政策工具,保持流动性充裕,持续推动社会综合融资成本下降。 2、实施好财政政策,更好发挥消费在畅通国民经 ...
促消费!央行等六部门重磅发布
第一财经· 2025-06-24 10:02
6月24日,为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署,完善扩大消费长效机制,更好满足消费领域金融服 务需求,近日中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部、金融监管总局、中国证监会等六部 门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》(以下简称《意见》)。 下一步,中国人民银行将会同有关部门加快推动《意见》各项政策实施落地,强化跟踪监测,指导金 融机构持续加大消费领域金融支持力度,为更好发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用提供有力金融支 撑。 中国人民银行 国家发展改革委 财政部 商务部 金融监管总局 中国证监会 关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见 为深入贯彻党中央、国务院决策部署,推动大力提振消费,完善扩大消费长效机制,强化商品消费和 服务消费金融供给,更好满足消费领域金融服务需求,现提出以下意见。 《意见》指出,要夯实宏观经济金融基础,支持居民就业增收,优化保险保障,积极培育消费需求。 强化结构性货币政策工具激励,加大对服务消费重点领域信贷支持,发展债券、股权等多元化融资渠 道。 一、总体要求 《意见》强调,要聚焦消费重点领域加大金融支持,结合消费场景和特点创新金融产品,持续推动消 费领域金融服务提质增效。优化 ...