沃尔夫研究首席经济学家罗斯表示，鲍威尔所说的最重要的一句话是利率并不算高。罗斯称，由于通胀 居高不下，美联储今年可能不会降息。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：利率并不算很高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, is set to deliver a speech regarding the economic outlook, inflation trends, and interest rates in Canada [1] Group 1 - The speech will address the economic prospects for Canada [1] - It will cover the trends in inflation that are currently affecting the economy [1] - The discussion will also include insights on interest rate policies and their implications [1]

Market Overview - Global market trading atmosphere is cautious due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1] - Investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach towards stock and currency markets [1] Currency Performance - The US dollar index has seen a weekly decline of -1.14% [3] - The GBP/USD pair performed the worst in the week with a decline of -0.79%, despite the GBP reaching a high of around 1.35, supported by weak dollar performance and rising UK inflation [3] - The EUR/USD pair also experienced a notable weekly decline of -0.37%, with the euro remaining in a medium-term upward trend [3] Economic Indicators - US retail sales data has shown weakness, leading to close monitoring of the Federal Reserve's "dot plot" for clues on potential interest rate cuts [1] - In the Eurozone, May inflation data showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, aligning with market expectations, while core inflation rose by 2.4% [6] - Japan's overall inflation rate has risen to 3.6%, significantly above the Bank of Japan's target of 2% [8] Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates but will update economic and interest rate forecasts [1] - The Bank of England is anticipated to keep rates unchanged, despite high core inflation levels [3] - The Bank of Japan has decided to maintain current rates, reflecting a cautious monetary policy stance amid external uncertainties [7]

Economic Overview - In May, U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9%, worse than the expected decline of 0.6%, primarily due to a drop in automotive and parts consumption[4] - Industrial production decreased by 0.2% in May, below the market expectation of 0%, with utilities experiencing a significant drop of 2.9%[4] Retail Sector Insights - Automotive sales continued to decline, dropping from 5.3% in March to -3.5% in May, reflecting a weakening demand for durable goods[4] - Non-durable goods consumption showed signs of recovery, with clothing and online shopping sales increasing from 0% and 0.4% in April to 0.8% and 0.9% in May, respectively[4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - Inflation is expected to rebound in Q3 due to rising oil prices and tariff impacts, despite a general economic slowdown[1] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates steady in June and July, with potential rate cuts in September and either November or December[1]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios [1] Summary by Directory - **Futures - Spot Spread**: IF is - 7.78 (41.80% 1 - year, 40.00% all - time), IH is - 11.23 (- 2.16 change, 25.40% 1 - year, 19.50% all - time), IC is - 11.24 (8.69 change, 77.00% 1 - year, 67.00% all - time), IM is - 21.81 (13.61 change, 90.00% 1 - year, 48.30% all - time) [1] - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For different contracts like next - month vs. current - month, season - month vs. current - month, far - month vs. current - month, values and changes are provided for IF, IH, IC, and IM [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Such as CSI 500/CSI 300 = 1.4855 (- 0.0046 change, 60.20% 1 - year, 41.10% all - time), IC/IF = 1.4856 (- 0.0027 change, 64.70% 1 - year, 59.30% all - time), etc. [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads and basis [4] Summary by Directory - **Basis**: TS basis has an IRR of 1.7719 (- 0.0506 change, 33.90% percentile), TF basis has an IRR of 1.8376 (- 0.0358 change, 51.80% percentile), etc. [4] - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For different contracts like current - season vs. next - season, values and changes are provided for TS, TF, T, and TL [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Such as TS - TF = - 3.7110 (- 0.0300 change, 2.00% percentile), TF - T = - 2.8450 (0.0250 change, 1.40% percentile), etc. [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Provides information on domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2508 contract is 794.36 yuan/g (1.17% increase), AG2508 contract is 8791 yuan/kg (- 0.32% decrease); foreign COMEX gold is 3452.60 dollars/ounce (1.36% increase), COMEX silver is 36.37 dollars/ounce (- 0.11% decrease) [7] - **Spot Prices**: London gold is 3433.35 dollars/ounce (1.40% increase), London silver is 36.29 dollars/ounce (- 0.13% decrease), etc. [7] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.50 (1.30 change, 12.40% 1 - year percentile), silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is 2 (- 49 previous, 91.10% 1 - year percentile) [7] - **Price Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 94.93 (1.37 change, 1.47% increase), Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver is 90.36 (1.33 change, 1.49% increase) [7] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.41% (1.1% increase), 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.96% (1.5% increase), etc. [7] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 18177 kg (1.85% increase), COMEX silver inventory is 498460011 (0.05% increase), etc. [7] Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Displays spot quotes, index changes, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [11][12] Summary by Directory - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates for MAERSK is 2796 dollars/FEU (- 2.03% decrease), CMA is 3857 dollars/FEU (1.88% increase), etc. [12] - **Index Changes**: SCFIS (European route) is 1622.81 points (29.53% increase), SCFI comprehensive index is 2088.24 (- 6.79% decrease) [11] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 is 1472.8 (2.07% increase), EC2508 (main contract) is 2068.0 (4.20% increase), basis (main contract) is - 315.1 (374.1 change, - 54.28% change) [11] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3247.12 million TEU (0.00% change), Shanghai port on - time rate is 42.50 (46.45% increase), etc. [11] Group 5: Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic data and information sources and corresponding economic indicators or financial events [13] Summary by Directory - **Overseas Data/Info**: In the agricultural product sector, includes Brazil Secex weekly report, USDA crop growth and export inspection in the US, NOPA soybean crushing [13] - **Domestic Data/Info**: For macro data, includes 70 - city housing price report, national economic operation press conference, etc.; for different commodities like iron ore, black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, etc., specific data such as shipments, inventories are provided [13]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The futures market indicates a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates, with the earliest potential rate cut not expected until September [1][3] - Recent economic data shows signs of a cooling labor market and declining inflation, reducing the likelihood of severe stagflation in the U.S. [3][4] - Market participants are particularly focused on the economic forecast summary and the press conference by Fed Chair Powell to understand the factors that could lead to a rate cut [3][4] Group 2: Global Central Banks - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rates, with no economists predicting a rate hike in the near term [5][6] - There is speculation that the Bank of Japan may slow down its balance sheet reduction, with expectations for a potential rate hike pushed back to Q1 2026 [6][8] - The Swiss National Bank faces pressure to potentially return to negative interest rates due to a strong Swiss franc and deflationary pressures [9][10] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Trade Relations - Global trade relations and political dynamics are anticipated to undergo significant changes by mid-2025, creating unprecedented challenges for markets [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, is contributing to market volatility and economic planning challenges for consumers and companies [4][6] - The UK central bank is expected to align its monetary policy with the Fed's path, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year [11]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, on various asset classes, especially oil and commodities [1][2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Dynamics**: Initial expectations of rising oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict were tempered by limited Iranian retaliation, leading to a price drop of three to four dollars after an initial spike [4]. Future oil price trends depend on the evolution of the conflict, with extreme scenarios including a full-scale war and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz being deemed unlikely [5]. A neutral expectation suggests high volatility followed by a gradual decline, while an optimistic scenario involves a softening of Iran's stance and potential agreements with the U.S. [5][6]. - **Macroeconomic Environment**: The current macroeconomic environment is uncertain, but there is a general optimism for oil prices in June due to seasonal demand returning and the realization of production increases [6]. The geopolitical premium on oil prices is expected to diminish, but prices are unlikely to return to previous lows [6][8]. - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: Geopolitical tensions are hindering the reduction of inflation expectations in the U.S., which may delay interest rate cuts until September [8]. The high-interest rate environment is expected to suppress global demand, impacting overall economic activity [8]. - **Commodity Market Pressures**: The commodity cycle appears weak, with U.S. inventory levels peaking and a decline in Chinese domestic demand expected to pressure commodity prices [3][12]. The domestic refined oil market is experiencing limited price increases, with a weak outlook for automotive demand [15]. - **Gold Market Trends**: The gold market is driven by geopolitical factors, with central banks, including the People's Bank of China, increasing gold reserves, indicating a strong price trend for gold [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact on Chemical Products**: The conflict is affecting the chemical sector, particularly methanol, where Iran is a major supplier to China. Any escalation in conflict could disrupt methanol shipments [17][18]. The market for polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) is facing oversupply and weak downstream demand, leading to profit compression [20]. - **Historical Context**: The current geopolitical situation is compared to past conflicts, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, suggesting that while volatility may spike, a return to stability is likely [9]. - **Shipping and Logistics**: The conflict has not significantly impacted container shipping, with no immediate effects on major shipping routes [25]. However, the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could affect regional throughput, though the probability remains low [26]. - **Market Sentiment and Strategy**: The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with a focus on monitoring geopolitical developments closely. Strategies may need to be adjusted based on the evolving situation, particularly in the oil and chemical markets [23][28]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of the Middle East conflict on various sectors and the broader economic landscape.

大纲： 大家好，又到了我们每月一次的读书课。今天给大家带来的书是《利息的故事：利率背后的金融世 界》。为什么选择这样一个专业词汇来讲？我们在投资市场中待久了，都会有一个深刻的感受：不了解 利息，就不了解经济，也不了解金融市场。利率的涨跌有时蕴含着资本市场中的密码。 举几个例子。2022年，美联储加息，直接抬升了全球利率水平，许多国家都面临大幅向上的利率，这具 有历史意义，标志着全球主要经济体基本告别了过去几十年大家已习以为常的超低利率时代。大家可以 看到，2022年以美国为代表的股票市场遭遇了深度下跌。 再看2024年，日本央行加息，利率上升，美国市场感受到了千里之外的巨大影响。全球资金开始流出美 元资产，美元大跌，美国股票市场也经历了艰难的一个月。 时间来到2025年4月，美国政府刚打出关税大棒，美国金融市场出现了巨大波动，美国国债利率大幅上 升，敲响了美元资产的警钟。这不得不让美国总统特朗普收回关税大棒，开始与其他国家握手言和。 除了这些国际例子，我们自己也能感受到利率威力（很好的晴雨表）。2024年年底，我们看到债券市场 利率步步下跌，甚至央行都要出来警示，说如果有人违规大幅配置炒作债券市场资产，可能会 ...

美国总统特朗普：不会解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，他只需将利率降低即可，我们的通胀数据表现良好。 订阅美联储动态 +订阅 订阅特朗普动态 +订阅 ...