Core Viewpoint - The casting aluminum market is experiencing a weak trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased market volatility and cautious trading behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2602) closed at 21,265 yuan, down 35 yuan, with a decline of 0.16% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 5,739 lots, an increase of 1,145 lots, while the open interest decreased by 1,166 lots to 16,018 lots [1]. - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 23,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, with rising demand from recycling aluminum enterprises, which supports the price of scrap aluminum [2]. - Despite some price declines in certain aluminum alloy varieties, the purchasing enthusiasm from downstream enterprises has increased, indicating a relatively active market atmosphere [2]. - The overall industry profit remains low due to high inventory levels and a surplus supply environment, despite the strong cost support from scrap aluminum prices [2]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine situation, have heightened market risk aversion [1]. - The U.S. government's actions regarding Venezuela have further escalated market tensions, contributing to a cautious outlook among traders [1]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on further interest rate cuts adds to the uncertainty in the market, particularly during the low trading activity typical of the Christmas week [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has average trading volume, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass and soda ash markets are showing a weak and fluctuating trend, while silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have different trends with their own supply - demand characteristics [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend yesterday, and the market transaction center of the spot market moved down. Soda ash futures also showed a weak and fluctuating trend, and downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass production is oscillating at a high level, supply contraction is insufficient, rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. Soda ash production, although declining, is still at a relatively high level, and new production lines may increase supply. There are also challenges to the demand for heavy soda ash [1] Strategy - Glass: Weak and fluctuating; Soda ash: Weak and fluctuating; No strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures generally trended upward yesterday, and the spot market was strong with a slight price increase. Silicon iron futures had mixed long - and short - term sentiments, showing a narrow - range fluctuating trend, and the spot price was slightly adjusted upward [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon manganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. The inventory of manganese ore at ports continues to rise, and the total inventory of manganese elements increases slightly, weakening cost support. Silicon iron production has dropped significantly this week, and enterprise inventory pressure has been relieved [3] Strategy - Silicon manganese: Fluctuating; Silicon iron: Fluctuating [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is expected to be reduced as refineries have cut production recently. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory situation is mixed. With the strengthening of crude oil prices, the cost support for asphalt is expected to strengthen in the short term. The asphalt 2602 contract is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 2966 - 3024 [7][8]. - The factors that are favorable for investment are the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support. The unfavorable factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, a downward trend in overall demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.1826%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points month - on - month. Sample enterprise shipments are 244490 tons, a decrease of 3.52% month - on - month, and sample enterprise production is 487000 tons, a decrease of 2.40% month - on - month. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 955000 tons, an increase of 1.17% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to be reduced next week [7]. - **Demand - side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.6%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of construction asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 7.6609%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 24%, a decrease of 3.00 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 27%, a decrease of 4.10 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.00% month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.36% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Basis**: On December 22, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 75 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 714000 tons, a decrease of 0.97% month - on - month; the in - plant inventory is 594000 tons, an increase of 0.51% month - on - month; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 27000 tons, a decrease of 42.55% month - on - month. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions have decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have recently reduced production, which eases supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand improvement is limited, and overall demand falls short of expectations and is sluggish. Inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support will strengthen in the short term. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating in the range of 2966 - 3024 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price and basis trends**: The report presents the price trends of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including their current values, previous values, and price changes. It also shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2020 - 2025 [15][18]. - **Spread analysis**: The report analyzes the spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025, as well as the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, and the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025. It also shows the比价 trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [22][25][27][31]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Northeast, North China, East China, South China, Northwest, Southwest) and the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [15][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis** - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread**: The report shows the coking - asphalt profit spread trends from 2020 - 2025 [39][40]. - **Supply - side analysis** - **Shipments**: The report shows the weekly shipments of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - **Production**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [48][49]. - **Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production**: The report shows the price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [52][53]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The report shows the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance loss estimate**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss trends from 2018 - 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis** - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [64][65]. - **Social and in - plant inventory**: The report shows the social inventory trends (70 samples) and in - plant inventory trends (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [68][69]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: The report shows the in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and export analysis**: The report shows the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [74][75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis** - **Petroleum coke production**: The report shows the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trends of excavators, the domestic excavator sales trends, and the roller sales trends from 2019 - 2025 [86][87][90][91]. - **Asphalt开工率**: The report shows the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends, the asphalt开工率 trends classified by use (construction asphalt, modified asphalt), and the downstream开工率 trends (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt开工率) from 2019 - 2025 [95][96][98][99][100][101]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 - 2025, including monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105][106].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为080元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为634.77元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and the Middle East are continuously disturbing the crude oil market, causing oil prices to fluctuate. Different raw materials have varying impacts on downstream chemical products. The market has entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds, with extreme price differences among some varieties, and there is a possibility of reverse fluctuations due to capital disturbances. The inventories of three major liquefied chemical products (EB, BZ, and EG) have all increased on a month - on - month basis [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Geopolitical factors are disturbing the crude oil market, including the US's intensified blockade of Venezuela, the key stage of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations, and potential Israeli attacks on Iran. Coal inventories are high due to lower - than - expected seasonal demand. The different performances of raw materials have implications for downstream chemical products [2]. - After the main contracts shifted to the 05 contracts, the market entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds. Polyolefins are considered for short - selling, while PX is favored for long - buying. The inventories of EB, BZ, and EG have all increased, with BZ inventory increasing by 5% month - on - month, and BZ and EB port inventories at a five - year high, and EG inventory approaching the five - year median [3]. 2. Performance of Each Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and other regions continue to disturb the market, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: Overseas refined oil inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the pressure of crude oil inventory is mainly reflected in floating storage. The supply - surplus situation persists. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term price fluctuations, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low [4][8]. - **Outlook**: The supply - surplus pattern continues, and geopolitical expectations are unstable. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate near the annual low in the short term [8]. Bitumen - **Viewpoint**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has heated up again, and bitumen futures prices have risen. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The situation between the US and Venezuela has driven up bitumen futures prices. If there is a substantial supply disruption, bitumen futures prices will be strong; otherwise, they may fall after rising. The pricing of bitumen futures has returned to Shandong spot prices, and the high valuation of bitumen is being revised downward. Bitumen is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still great pressure on inventory accumulation [9]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of bitumen is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors have driven up the futures prices of high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to a rebound in high - sulfur fuel oil. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three driving forces for high - sulfur fuel oil (Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and Palestine - Israel conflict) are currently weak, and fuel oil demand is still weak [9]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. It has strong product attributes but faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. Domestically, the pressure on refined oil supply is increasing, which may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in an increase in supply and a decline in demand. Overseas, unexpected maintenance and unstable operation of some refineries have led to an unexpected decline in supply and an increase in valuation [11]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and insufficient high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The situation in coastal and inland areas is relatively stalemate, and methanol is expected to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The inland market is weak, with high freight rates and general downstream follow - up. Although Iranian imports are expected to decrease in the long term, coastal port inventories are still at a historical high, and the arrival volume may be high in the short term. The trading logic in coastal areas is unclear, and the unloading rhythm of arriving ships may be a key variable [30]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [30]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand are weak, and the futures market fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: On December 22, 2025, the urea supply was affected by gas restrictions and maintenance, and the operating rate fell below 80%. However, due to the new production capacity put into operation throughout the year, the daily output was still above 190,000 tons, maintaining pressure on the market. On the demand side, there is still support from off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection, but the downstream's acceptance of the increased price is low, and the actual follow - up is cautious [31]. - **Outlook**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and may weaken. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories [31]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: There is still room for an increase in the load, and the spot circulation remains loose. - **Main Logic**: With the restart of some devices, the supply has increased again, and there are expectations of increased production from other devices. The overall spot circulation of ethylene glycol remains loose, and the inventory accumulation period is expected to last until February. The market sentiment needs time to recover, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [22][24]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [24]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by sentiment, PX maintains a strong consolidation, and profits continue to expand. - **Main Logic**: The market is optimistic about the medium - and long - term pattern of PX, and bullish funds continue to bet. Geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, and the resonance of cost and sentiment has led to the continued rise of PX and the expansion of PXN. Currently, the industrial chain profits are overly concentrated upstream, squeezing the cash flow of PTA and polyester. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts or early holidays in the polyester industry [13][14]. - **Outlook**: PX is expected to consolidate strongly under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. PXN is expected to fluctuate within the range of [300, 380] US dollars per ton. The positive spread logic of PX remains [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: With cost support, the outlook is positive, and the processing margin on the futures market has been significantly repaired. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX is still strong, providing cost support for PTA. The supply - demand pattern of PTA is still tight, and the export data in November was good, boosting market confidence. The BIS certification cancellation has a continuous positive impact, and it is expected that the export performance in December will still improve. PTA is expected to maintain a de - stocking pattern, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February is less than in previous years. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [14][15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly following the cost, and the processing margin will operate within a range with limited expansion space. It is recommended to go long on the TA05 contract at low prices and take profit at around 5100. A positive spread strategy can be adopted for TA05 - 09 [15]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The upstream cost support has strengthened, but the cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials are rising, providing cost support for polyester short - fiber. However, the downstream's willingness to accept high prices is low, resulting in poor sales of polyester short - fiber. The cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed due to the off - season expectation [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will fluctuate with the upstream, and the support for the processing margin has increased. The position of going long on TA and shorting PF should be closed for profit [26]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream raw material cost supports the price. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures have risen strongly, and polyester bottle - chip factories have mostly raised their prices. The trading volume in the polyester bottle - chip market is acceptable. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing margin has increased [27]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance supports PL to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance still provides support. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer is stable, with only a few prices slightly adjusted downward. The downstream buying is cautious, and there is no significant change in trading. In the short term, the profit of powder is under pressure, and the decline in the operating rate has a negative impact [35]. - **Outlook**: PL is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of maintenance supports PP to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The profit of PDH is under short - term pressure, and the valuation support of gas - based refineries has increased, with a strong expectation of increased maintenance. Geopolitical factors affect the short - term price of oil, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is still great downward pressure in the next quarter. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The current trading of maintenance is mainly focused on the expectation for January 2026, and the actual supply pressure is still large, with high inventory [34]. - **Outlook**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The support of maintenance is limited, and plastic fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and geopolitical factors affect the short - term price. There is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is great downward pressure in the next quarter. The fundamental support of plastic itself is still limited, with limited pressure on the profits of oil, coal, and ethane production, and a weaker expectation of supply reduction compared to PP. The upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the price. The overall demand for plastic is entering the off - season, and the sustainability of the short - term increase in downstream trading volume is questionable [33]. - **Outlook**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [33]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: New export transactions and a strong aromatic atmosphere have led to the intraday rise of styrene. - **Main Logic**: Recently, styrene has been fluctuating weakly. The downstream ABS has shown negative feedback, with some enterprises reducing their loads. The liquidity of styrene has increased, and the basis and profit have weakened. In the short term, the support comes from the external pure benzene, while the upper limit is restricted by the pure benzene inventory pressure and the shift of styrene to inventory accumulation [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Styrene is about to shift to inventory accumulation, and the upstream has difficulty in reducing inventory and still faces great pressure. The upper limit is obvious, and export transactions will stimulate short - term rebounds [21]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient driving force, and the futures market fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, the supply - demand situation of PVC has improved marginally due to overseas capacity withdrawal and domestic marginal enterprise production cuts, but the over - supply expectation cannot be reversed. The domestic production may remain stable, the downstream operating rate is seasonally weak, the export orders are good this week, and the calcium carbide price is under pressure [37]. - **Outlook**: The de - stocking driven by production cuts will probably limit the rebound space of PVC. The over - supply situation cannot be reversed in the medium term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [37]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda may fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, although the short - term de - stocking in Shandong has occurred, if the alumina production is reduced and the upstream maintains a high operating rate, the supply - demand of caustic soda will still be in excess. The profit of marginal alumina devices is poor, the inventory of Weiquan is high, the demand for caustic soda will be boosted by the new alumina project in Guangxi in Q1 2026, the non - aluminum operating rate is weak, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is low [39][40]. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is positive in the short term, and the upstream in Shandong is de - stocking. However, the supply - demand is under pressure in the long term, and the market may wait and see [40]. 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX decreased by 86 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread of PP decreased by 15 yuan per ton [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different changes. For example, the basis of bitumen decreased by 76 yuan per ton, and the warehouse receipt was 54,100 lots [43]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads have also changed. For example, the 1 - month spread of PP - 3MA decreased by 104 yuan per ton, and the 1 - month spread of TA - EG increased by 157 yuan per ton [45]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring There is no specific content provided in the given text for in - depth analysis of this part. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of the commodity index all showed different degrees of increase on December 22, 2025. The comprehensive index increased by 1.10%, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.34%, and the industrial products index increased by 0.79%. The energy index increased by 2.32% on the day, 1.47% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.08% in the past month, and decreased by 10.72% since the beginning of the year [284][285].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The methanol futures market was volatile and slightly weaker, with the basis slightly weakening and overall trading volume being average. - In December, the port arrivals of methanol were still high, but due to gas restrictions and device failures in Iran, a large amount of production capacity was shut down, and the expectation of reduced imports in the far - month significantly increased. Although there was still inventory accumulation pressure at the port in December, the supply - demand balance sheet was expected to shift to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. - In the inland areas, the transfer price in Inner Mongolia decreased month - on - month, mainly affected by high production and factory inventory accumulation. The supply was expected to remain stable due to the repair of enterprise profits from falling coal prices, and the demand from traditional downstream industries increased slightly, with new MTO capacity being put into operation. The inland supply - demand pattern was expected to be stable, and the price would fluctuate within a narrow range [3]. Polyolefins - The polyolefin market was characterized by high production in 2026 and weak current conditions. The market was short - sold, and in 2026, the market was expected to face both lower costs and compressed profits, with the price center moving further down. - For PP, supply increased while demand decreased, the valuation of marginal devices was still low, and inventory slightly decreased. For PE, both supply and demand were weak, and some full - density devices switched from LL to HD production, with the marginal supply of standard products decreasing [6]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the geopolitical tension between Thailand and Cambodia had not eased, affecting the local raw material supply in Thailand, and the domestic production areas were accelerating into the off - season, providing bottom support for rubber prices. - On the demand side, the resumption of work in some enterprises supported the overall capacity utilization rate, but due to increasing production and sales pressure, enterprises would maintain production control in the short term. - In the market, some agents replenished inventory moderately to meet annual targets, but it was the seasonal off - season for demand, and the actual market trading was mainly based on rigid demand. The market continued to operate weakly. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the off - season demand limited the upward space for rubber prices. The rubber price was expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The spot price continued to weaken. The demand from the float glass end decreased significantly due to the cold repair of multiple production lines, and the photovoltaic end continued to develop. The supply was expected to increase with the trial production of Yuanxing's second - phase project, and the overall demand for soda ash was in a contraction pattern. The price was in a downward trend, and after a technical rebound in the recent period, a short - selling strategy after the rebound was recommended [9]. - Glass: The northern demand decreased significantly, and the mid - and downstream purchasers slowed down their procurement and focused on consuming their own inventory. Some northwest manufacturers had set winter - storage prices, and some mid - and downstream players started winter - storage. The southern region still had some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, the market was concerned about the sustainability of future demand. The high inventory in the trading and futures - cash sectors also pressured the spot price, and the futures market was expected to face further pressure [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The supply - demand situation still faced some pressure. Although some regional enterprises reduced their inventory and some downstream buyers were more active, the inventory level was still high, and there was no obvious positive news in the short term. The price was expected to be weak in the next week, especially in the East China region where supply was expected to increase [10]. - PVC: The supply pressure remained this week, but the market rebounded due to the shutdown of overseas devices. The operating rate was expected to decline slightly next week. Both domestic and foreign demand were under pressure, and the demand in the off - season was weak. The cost support was expected to weaken, and the PVC market was expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The domestic petroleum benzene supply was stable, but the supply increased due to the restart of many hydro - benzene devices, and the port inventory was at a high level. The overall demand from downstream industries decreased slightly. In the short term, the supply - demand situation was weak, and the cost support from crude oil was limited. However, the spring maintenance plan was gradually released, and the price might be boosted in the short term but with limited upside potential. The BZ2603 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [11]. - Styrene: The industry profit improved, and some maintenance devices restarted, increasing the overall supply. The downstream industry profit was compressed, and the terminal demand was weak. The inventory of styrene - benzene increased, but some East China factories had export transactions. The price was boosted by the short - term rebound of crude oil and the rise of PX, but there was an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the cost support was limited. The rebound space was expected to be limited [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In the short term, the supply was high supported by short - process production, and the maintenance plan might be postponed if the efficiency improved. The PXN spread widened significantly, and the processing fees of downstream PTA and polyester products were further compressed. The terminal demand was weakening, and the polyester industry was under pressure. The price might continue to be strong in the short term but could decline if the polyester industry reduced production substantially [12]. - PTA: The supply - demand situation was not under great pressure in November - December, but the processing fee was compressed. The price followed the raw material PX, and a short - selling strategy after the rebound was recommended, with a long - term low - buying strategy and a long - short spread strategy for TA5 - 9 [12]. - MEG: The high polyester operating rate provided some support, but the overseas supply reduction was offset by sufficient imports, and the port inventory was expected to accumulate. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level, and a reverse spread strategy for EG5 - 9 and a short - selling strategy for EG2605 - C - 4100 were recommended [12]. - Short - fiber: The supply was high, and the demand was seasonally weak. The price followed the raw material, and a strategy of short - selling the processing fee was recommended [12]. - Bottle chips: The domestic supply was expected to increase, and the processing fee was expected to be compressed. A strategy similar to PTA was recommended, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [12]. Crude Oil - The international crude oil price rebounded on Monday, driven by geopolitical factors such as the US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker and the mutual attacks on energy facilities between Russia and Ukraine. - After the US - Ukraine negotiation, although the "peace plan" draft was completed, the situation in the Gaza Strip was still complex, and the repeated process would affect the crude oil price. The price was expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel, and the geopolitical situation should be continuously monitored [13]. LPG - The LPG futures prices of different contracts increased to varying degrees. The port inventory decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased slightly. - The market was affected by factors such as international prices and domestic supply - demand conditions, but no specific long - term trend prediction was provided in the report [16]. Urea - The urea futures market was weak, while the spot price was stable. The market mainly executed previous orders, and new orders were purchased cautiously, with a slight decline in trading volume. - India's new urea tender provided short - term support for the futures price. On the supply side, although the industry operating rate decreased slightly due to the shutdown of some gas - fired devices in Southwest and Inner Mongolia, the daily urea production remained at a high level of 19 - 20 million tons, and the supply pressure still existed. - On the demand side, agricultural demand was in the off - season, but the fertilizer reserve demand in Northeast and Guangdong provided some support, while industrial demand weakened marginally. The urea price was expected to fluctuate in the range of 1680 - 1730, and the device restart rhythm and downstream demand progress should be monitored [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of MA2601 remained unchanged, while MA2605 increased slightly. The MA15 spread decreased, the basis in Taicang weakened, and the MTO05 disk price decreased significantly. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the regional spreads also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86% to 39.114 million tons, the port inventory decreased by 1.26% to 121.9 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 1.43% to 161.0 million tons [2]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.29% to 77.63%, the overseas enterprise operating rate in Shanghai decreased by 5.43% to 60.5%, and the operating rates of different downstream industries showed different trends, with the acetic acid operating rate increasing significantly [3]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all decreased. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 3.65% to 48.8 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.67% to 46.9 million tons. The PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory both decreased to zero [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.30% to 63.9%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.28% to 42.5%. The PP device operating rate increased by 1.37% to 79.4%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 53.8% [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex decreased by 0.34%, the basis weakened, and the prices of other varieties also showed different trends. The monthly spreads between different contracts changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while the production in India increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires were stable, and the domestic tire production and export volume increased in November [7]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515,227 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory in the SHFE decreased by 1.02% to 58,968 tons [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The glass and soda ash prices in different regions and contracts showed different trends, and the spreads and basis also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [9]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different regions and contracts changed, and the spreads and basis also showed different trends [10]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory decreased slightly [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries showed different trends, and the operating rates of downstream industries also changed [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the spreads between different contracts and products also changed [11]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [11]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream industries showed different trends [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials and downstream polyester products increased, and the spreads and processing fees between different products changed [12]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the supply - demand situation of different products in the polyester industry chain was affected by factors such as production and demand [12]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain showed different trends, with some industries' operating rates decreasing [12]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [13]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of refined oil products increased, and the spreads between different contracts and products also changed [13]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of different refined oil products increased to varying degrees [13]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts increased, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio remained unchanged, and the port inventory decreased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased slightly [16]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. The spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [18]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased [18]. - **Operating Rate**: The industry operating rate decreased slightly, but the daily production remained at a high level [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy tone remains positive, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft planning major projects. In the current off - season, supply and demand are both weak. The steel rebar fundamentals are still resilient, while hot - rolled coils face inventory pressure. Supported by winter storage and cost, the futures market continues to rebound. The iron ore futures perform strongly, and the valuation of coking coal and coke continues to recover due to supply disturbances. The glass - soda ash prices are suppressed by the oversupply situation. Overall, there is a chance of a low - level rebound in the futures market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased slightly, and port inventories are accumulating. Iron water production continues to decline, weakening the rigid demand. Steel mills' restocking is slow, and there is strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][7] - Scrap steel: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and demand remains stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is good, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of further spot price cuts is low. As winter storage by coke and steel enterprises begins, the spot price will be more strongly supported, and the futures valuation still has room for repair, expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [2][11] - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures valuation has room for repair, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market supply and demand of manganese silicon remain loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upward movement of the futures price may face selling pressure, and the upside space is limited. In the medium term, it will oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: The high cost supports the price bottom. Currently, the upstream supply pressure is not large, but in the off - season of terminal demand, the market supply and demand are both weak. The upside space of the futures price is not overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply and demand are in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress the price, expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][12] - Soda ash: Recently, the coal price recovery has strengthened the cost support. However, the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][15] 3.5 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: The cost support is strong, and the futures market continues to rebound. The spot market trading is average. Steel production is decreasing, but rebar production has stabilized and rebounded. Demand is weak in the off - season but still has support. Steel inventories are decreasing, but the current inventory level is still high year - on - year, and demand may weaken. The upside space of the futures market is limited [6] - Iron ore: The spot price is weakly oscillating. Overseas shipments have decreased, arrivals have declined, and iron water production has dropped significantly. Port inventories are accumulating, and steel mills' restocking demand is slow to release. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [7] - Scrap steel: The supply is at a low level, and demand is stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price is expected to oscillate [9] - Coke: The third round of price cuts has been implemented, and coking enterprises' profits have turned negative. The production enthusiasm is okay, but some are restricted by environmental protection. Steel mills' inventories are increasing, and the overall market is stabilizing. The futures valuation has room for repair and is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [11] - Coking coal: Affected by the earthquake, the market sentiment is high. Domestic supply is at a low level, and imports are high. The downstream has started to restock, and the futures valuation has room for repair [12] - Glass: The spot price is still weak, and the futures market is oscillating. The policy is positive, but the supply may decline in the long term and is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the valuation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price will oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [12] - Soda ash: The supply has slightly decreased, and demand is expected to weaken. The overall supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, and the market is at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The futures price is strongly oscillating, and the spot price has slightly increased. The cost has slightly loosened, demand is weak, and supply is difficult to significantly reduce inventory. The upside space of the futures price is limited, and it will oscillate at a low level in the medium term [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures market is oscillating, and the spot price has little change. The cost is high, demand is weak, supply pressure has been alleviated, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] 3.6 Index Information - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the specialty index (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index) all increased, with increases of 1.10%, 1.34% and 0.79% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.30% on the day, 2.44% in the past 5 days, - 0.06% in the past month, and - 6.26% since the beginning of the year [104][106]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.39%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升，淡季基本面并未改善，钢价仍易承压，相 对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预期现实博弈下螺纹维持震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.28%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位去化 有限，价格继续承压，相对利好的是政 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 周末钢材现货价格弱稳运行，成交表现偏弱，相应的螺纹钢供需两端有所企稳，螺纹供应回升 但依旧是年内低位，给予钢价支撑，持续性有待跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求同样企稳，高频需求 指标有所增加，但仍是近年来同期低位，而下游行业也未好转，需求延续季节性走弱，继而承压钢 价。目前来看， ...