Workflow
成本支撑
icon
Search documents
宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250522
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 02:02
| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 8900.00 | 8900.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D 下 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7200.00 | 0.00% | | 游 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6630.00 | 6620.00 | 0.15% | | 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 元/吨 | 6000.00 | 5995.00 | 0.08% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6050.00 | 6000.00 | 0.83% | | 装置信息 西北一套120万吨PTA装置计划5 ...
现货价格继续走弱,工业硅盘面继续探底
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 04:22
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The cost support has weakened due to the decline in raw materials and electricity prices during the wet season in the southwest region. There are no bright spots on the consumer side, and high industry inventories are suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the southwest and the impact of macro - sentiment [2]. - In the short term, actual spot transactions are extremely rare. Downstream enterprises are mainly consuming inventory. Near - month contracts are still trading based on delivery games, while far - month contracts are trading on weak reality and weak expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to bottom out. The main contract 2507 opened at 8150 yuan/ton and closed at 8130 yuan/ton, a change of (-155) yuan/ton or (-1.87)% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2507 was 155,038 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,384 lots, a change of - 49 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in East China was 8800 - 9100 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9600 - 10100 (-150) yuan/ton. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region also continued to decline. The price of 97 silicon also declined [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. It is reported that the market trading volume is expected to recover faster in mid - to late May, and the low - level inventory reduction of monomer enterprises has been effective recently. Although the operation of monomer enterprises in North and Southwest China has recovered, those in the Northwest are still in the maintenance period [1]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 36,900 yuan/ton and closed at 37,150 yuan/ton, a change of 0.51% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 28,688 (32,702 the previous day) lots, and the trading volume was 72,986 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quotation of polysilicon re - feedstock was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type silicon was 37.00 - 39.00 (-0.75) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased month - on - month. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 25.00 tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.27%, the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a month - on - month change of 7.22%, the weekly polysilicon output was 21,400.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW, a month - on - month change of 0.50% [4]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - **Silicon Wafers** - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (-0.02) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.08 (-0.02) yuan/piece [6]. - **Battery Cells** - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - **Components** - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. Factors to Watch - Resumption of production in the southwest and changes in the operation in the northwest [2][5]. - Changes in the operation of polysilicon enterprises [5]. - Policy disturbances [5]. - Macro and capital sentiment [2][5]. - Operation of organic silicon enterprises [5]. - Impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [7]. - Impact of futures listing on the spot market [7].
化工日报:市场情绪回落,关注成本支撑-20250520
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 03:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PTA futures market saw a decline on Monday, with a fair trading atmosphere in the spot market and a slight loosening of the spot basis after strengthening [1]. - In the cost - end, as summer approaches, demand will seasonally increase, and refinery operating rates will rise. The market can maintain a tight balance in Q3, but an oversupply situation is expected in Q4. Short - term attention should be paid to the developments in the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine situations [2]. - Gasoline cracking has rebounded recently but is seasonally weaker than in the past two years. The blending demand for aromatics this year is not promising, and the intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha, limiting the enthusiasm for aromatics to enter the gasoline pool [2]. - For PX, the PXN was $273/ton (a decrease of $9.38/ton compared to the previous period). Due to recent macro - positive factors and unexpected losses of multiple PX plants, the supply - demand outlook for the near - term PX has tightened, and the price has been supported. In May, domestic PX plants under maintenance will gradually restart, but PX will continue to be destocked due to the commissioning of new PTA plants [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is 198 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous period), and the PTA spot processing fee is 414 yuan/ton (a decrease of 16 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). Supported by strong demand from downstream polyester plants, PTA will continue to be significantly destocked in May, and the supply will gradually return later [3]. - The polyester operating rate is 95.0% (an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous period). With the improvement of the macro - environment and the rebound of raw material prices, the operating rates of downstream weaving and texturing have quickly recovered. After the Sino - US negotiations achieved positive results and tariffs were reduced, textile and clothing orders improved significantly, and the inventory of filament yarn decreased significantly. The average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease [3]. - The PF spot production profit is - 8 yuan/ton (a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). Although the market outlook has improved due to tariff benefits, downstream customers are cautious due to the rapid rise in raw material prices. Future attention should be paid to the cost trend of polyester raw materials [3]. - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 314 yuan/ton (a decrease of 81.95 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). With most domestic polyester bottle - chip plants in operation, the market supply is gradually increasing, and the market price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the news of plant maintenance due to rising costs [3]. - In terms of strategies, PX/PTA/PF/PR are expected to be strong in the short - term. After consecutive rapid increases, the current valuations of PXN and PTA are no longer low, and the absolute prices have returned to the level before the corresponding tariffs. The market sentiment has declined. Future attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback and the cost support from crude oil. The polyester industry chain is expected to remain strong in the short - term, but there is a demand for profit - taking, and the risk of chasing high prices should be vigilant. For cross - period trading, a positive spread strategy is recommended [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, its basis, and cross - period spreads; the PX main contract, its basis, and cross - period spreads; the PTA East China spot basis; and the short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - gloss pure - white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [28][31][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures are provided for PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [34][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament yarn production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [46][48][58] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, the difference between original and regenerated fibers, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][72][82] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, the difference between East China water bottle chips and regenerated 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [89][94][96]
大越期货工业硅期货早报-20250520
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 02:38
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年5月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目 录 成本端来看,新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3615元/吨,枯水期成本支撑有所上升。 2、基差: 05月19日,华东不通氧现货价8850元/吨,09合约基差为650元/吨,现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为59.9万吨,环比增加0.50%,样本企业库存为247600吨,环比减少6.53%,主要 港口库存为13.2万吨,环比减少0.75%。 偏空。 4、盘面: MA20向下,09合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空,空减。 偏空。 6、预期: 供给端排产有所减少,处于历史平均水平附近,需求复苏处于低位,成本支撑有所上升。 工业硅2509:在8025-8235区间 ...
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250520
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 02:16
Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply and demand are both decreasing, and the inventory accumulation situation persists. The long - term supply pattern is in surplus, and the demand is difficult to increase. The supply at the low level in the market is maintained for a short time, and the futures price lacks the power to rise continuously. The supply - demand contradiction will become prominent again, and the price will enter the downward channel again, with the futures market likely to show a weak and fluctuating trend [8]. - For glass, the overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains relatively stable. The demand market is relatively dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market, but the supply - demand game is still the key factor for the subsequent trend [9][10]. Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data on May 19th**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 opened low and went lower, with a closing price of 1,284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton, and a decline of 1.91%, and an increase of 116,309 lots in positions. The FG509 glass futures contract closed at 1,018 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.19%, and a decrease of 54,017 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda Ash Situation**: The weekly output of soda ash in China dropped to 677,700 tons in the week of May 15th, a month - on - month decrease of 8.52%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 80.27%. The enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash was 880,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The market supply is in a long - term surplus pattern, and the demand is difficult to increase, so the price will likely decline [8]. - **Glass Situation**: The overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains stable. The demand market is dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market [9][10]. 2. Industry News - **Real Estate**: In April, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was flat month - on - month, down 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month. The sales price of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, down 3.2% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month [11]. - **Manufacturing Loans**: From January to April, the Export - Import Bank of China invested more than 180 billion yuan in medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and the balance of medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry at the end of April was 1.8 trillion yuan [11]. - **Sodium Bicarbonate Market**: The sodium bicarbonate market in Henan is running weakly, and the downstream makes rigid demand purchases. The mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade sodium bicarbonate is estimated to be between 1,180 - 1,260 yuan/ton [11]. - **Float Glass Market**: The prices of the domestic float glass market are mainly stable, with some fluctuations. The prices in North China have fluctuated, the prices in East China have decreased in some areas, the prices of colored glass in Central China have increased in some factories, the prices in South China are stable, the prices in Northeast China have decreased, and the prices in Southwest China have fluctuated [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, the weekly output and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production volume of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [17][18][16].
日度策略参考-20250519
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 08:19
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].
日度策略参考-20250516
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 06:40
| 19 E K # 5 | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品種 | 股指 | 震荡 | 持有的多头头寸考虑减仓,警惕进一步调整风险。 | 110 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 容间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | 短期金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。明终 | 農汤 | 黄金 | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | 農法 | 三 千尺 | | | | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | 近期市场情绪好转,铜价走高,但下游需求转弱,铜价存在回调 | 股 | | | | | | | 风险。 | 电解铝自身产业面无明显矛盾,在中美贸易谈判结果超预期情况 | 看头 | | | | | | | 下,铝价延续反弹走势。 | 铝土矿及氧化铝供应扰动有所提升,氧化铝供需格局有所好转 | 氧化铝 | | | | | | | 短期价格或进一步反弹。 | 步入淡季终端需求明显走弱,叠加 ...
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250516
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:06
Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: May 16, 2024 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Soda ash futures may have a short - term small - scale rebound in May but lack continuous upward momentum. The long - term pattern is one of oversupply, and prices are expected to enter a downward channel again in mid - to - late May [8]. - The cost support of float glass futures prices may appear in the short term, and the short - term market has a certain support due to the expectation of rush - to - export. However, the continuous game of supply - demand relationship is the key factor for the subsequent trend [10]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda ash futures**: On May 15, the main soda ash futures SA509 maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, closing at 1330 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase and an increase of 82,994 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda ash spot**: Supply and demand both decreased, and inventory accumulation continued. The weekly output in the week of May 15 fell to 677,700 tons, a decrease of 8.52%; the weekly operating load rate dropped to 83%. As of May 8, the shipment volume was 711,700 tons, a 7.26% decrease from the previous period. As of May 15, the weekly enterprise inventory of heavy - soda ash remained at 880,000 tons [8]. - **Glass futures**: The FG509 contract closed at 1036 yuan/ton on May 16, down 1 yuan/ton with a 0.09% decrease [7]. - **Glass market**: The overall profit of the float glass production industry increased slightly. Production remained stable, demand was relatively flat, downstream procurement was conservative, and inventory accumulated. The futures price was approaching the production cost line [9][10]. 2. Industry News - China and the US will maintain communication on economic and trade concerns based on the consensus of the Geneva talks [11]. - The domestic float glass market prices were generally stable with minor fluctuations, and trading was average. Different regions had different price trends [11]. - The baking soda market in Henan was operating steadily with a lukewarm trading atmosphere, and the mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade baking soda was estimated at 1200 - 1260 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides charts on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy - soda market prices, and flat glass production [13][19][21]
宝城期货:螺纹钢后市承压
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-05-16 00:09
然而,需要注意的是,建筑钢材的主要下游情况并未出现明显变化,房地产行业基本面虽在持续修复, 但仍难贡献用钢需求的增量。相应地,基建投资虽保持增长态势,但增速也有限,所以建筑钢材的需求 表现依旧疲弱。同时,当前钢市正从传统旺季向淡季过渡,鉴于下游行业状况并未出现好转,螺纹钢需 求将进一步走弱,基本面呈现季节性的弱势特征,钢价继续承压运行。 成本支撑显现 受益于中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展带来的提振,商品市场情绪回暖,黑色金属多数品种均呈现触 底回升走势。其中,螺纹钢期货主力合约价格从最低3014元/吨上涨至3130元/吨上方,相应地,主流地 区现货价格同期也录得30~90元/吨的涨幅,期现价格均明显上涨。 弱预期迎来修复 中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展,超出市场预期,市场情绪扭转,风险偏好提升,国内工业品市场呈 现集体反弹的态势。目前来看,上述利好因素对黑色产业产生两方面的重要影响:一方面,市场情绪回 暖,弱预期迎来修复,推动相关品种价格上涨。另一方面,中美关税存在90天暂缓期,在此期间,国内 企业将加大对美国的出口力度,这在一定程度上缓解了前期市场对出口的担忧情绪,使得钢市强现实的 格局维持时间延长,有利于 ...
日度策略参考-20250515
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 06:48
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Alumina, Aluminium, Tin, PTA, Short - fiber [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Manganese Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand, Crude Oil [1] - **Oscillating**: Equity Index, Gold, Copper, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silicon Iron, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Printing, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Cotton, Bean Meal, Pulp, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The results of the Sino - US trade talks exceeded market expectations, which improved market risk appetite and had a positive impact on multiple varieties, but short - term operations still need to be cautious [1]. - The weak economy and asset shortage are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, while silver may be more resilient in the short term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Equity Index**: Yesterday, large - cap stocks led the rise. Observe whether small and medium - cap stocks can achieve resonance and make up for the rise. In a structural market, long - position investors should be cautious [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The short - term gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - **Silver**: Generally follows gold. Unexpected tariff results will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term silver price may be more resilient than gold [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The joint statement of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, which is positive for copper prices. However, the copper price has rebounded significantly recently, so be cautious about chasing high in the short term [1]. - **Aluminium and Alumina**: Aluminium prices continue to rebound. Alumina supply has increased, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the short - term price may further rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and the inflow of imported goods has weakened the fundamentals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The US inflation cooled more than expected, and the Sino - US talks results exceeded expectations. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and there are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines. Nickel prices will oscillate in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel. Stainless steel futures will oscillate and rebound in the short term, but there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, tin prices are expected to rebound. Continuously pay attention to the resumption of production in low - grade mines [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered a low - valuation range, and the demand and inventory pressure have not been alleviated [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low due to the futures discounting the spot [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream buyers still maintain rigid demand purchases [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in the window period of switching from the peak season to the off - season. The cost is loose, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the driving force for price rebound is insufficient [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that pig iron production will peak, and pay attention to the pressure on steel products [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: There is still an expectation of decline due to the expected excess of manganese ore, and the pressure of warehouse receipts is heavy [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand has become tight [1]. - **Printing**: The supply - demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price will continue to be weak [1]. - **Soda Ash**: There are many maintenance operations in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is excess supply in the medium term, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand is relatively excessive, and they are short - allocated in the sector. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 positive spread [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: The rise of crude oil and US biodiesel news drove the rise of palm oil. The Sino - US talks may drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. After the crude oil price falls, consider short - selling palm oil. The Sino - US talks are expected to be negative for soybean oil in terms of sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit. The Sino - Canadian relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it may lead to a large decline. Consider buying volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainty is still strong. The domestic cotton textile industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak oscillating trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the import corn auction has a negative impact on sentiment. The port inventory has decreased but is still at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the CO7 - C01 positive spread [1]. - **Bean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market is still digesting the pressure of spot and Brazilian selling, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiations on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand**: The shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased, the terminal demand is still weak, and the overall bearish pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to short after a rebound [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The pig inventory is continuously recovering, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the pace of future production capacity release and wait for spot price guidance [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil**: The results of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. There is a demand for rebound and repair after the previous sharp decline [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is dragging down, the inventory accumulation slope has decreased, and the demand is slowly recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The tariff negotiation is beneficial, and the cost is strongly supported. It will be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of price decline in the long term due to loose fundamentals and weak demand [1]. - **PTA**: The PX device is under intensive maintenance, the procurement demand for PX has increased, and the high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol device is under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, the basis has dropped rapidly, and market sentiment has subsided [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The slightly tight situation of PTA strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high - basis situation [1]. - **Styrene**: The improvement of Sino - US tariff policies has stimulated market speculative demand, the pure benzene price has gradually strengthened, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1]. - **Urea**: There are still positive expectations in the market, the downstream follow - up is okay, and the market negotiation focus has risen. However, due to price stability policies, the upward price space is limited [1]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strengthening, and the short - term price will oscillate strongly. The medium - long - term spot market may change from strong to weak oscillation [1]. - **PE, PP, PVC**: Macro - factors are positive, and they will oscillate strongly. PVC has a weak fundamental but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, but the macro - positive factors support the futures price, which will oscillate [1]. - **Propane and Butane**: The CP has decreased, the MB has increased, and the regional price difference of propane has narrowed. Butane is in the seasonal off - season [1].