Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the concept of "anti-involution" across various industries, emphasizing that the framework is still being refined and may require further input from industry associations and relevant departments [2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context of Anti-Involution - The first positioning of anti-involution is to serve high-quality development and enhance industrial competitiveness, integrating the strategy of expanding domestic demand with supply-side structural reforms [5][11]. - The second positioning is to support the construction of a unified national market, facilitating domestic circulation, with various measures already implemented to promote this goal [6][13]. Group 2: Future Outlook on Anti-Involution - The article outlines three reasons why the current anti-involution efforts are not urgent: differing goal orientations compared to previous supply-side reforms, varying employment constraints, and differing micro-profit pressures [7][17][18]. - Multiple sectors may be involved in anti-involution efforts, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, electronics, chemicals, and civil aviation [22]. - The implementation of anti-involution is expected to occur in three phases: 1. Phase one focuses on regulating corporate and government behavior to maintain fair market competition [26][28]. 2. Phase two involves market-based methods such as mergers and acquisitions to eliminate ineffective production capacity [30]. 3. Phase three may introduce more explicit "hard targets" to resolve supply-demand conflicts if previous phases do not yield results [32][33]. Group 3: Mechanisms for Implementing Anti-Involution - The article discusses the need for corporate behavior regulation, highlighting relevant laws and regulations aimed at promoting product quality and fair competition [35][36]. - Government behavior must also be regulated, with various policies in place to ensure fair competition and prevent local protectionism [38][39]. - Supply-side measures will focus on enhancing standards to force the exit of outdated production capacity, with specific deadlines set for compliance in various industries [40].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Manufacturing Sector**: China is undergoing a new round of supply-side reforms, focusing on eliminating inefficient capacity in emerging industries like automotive and electronics, with total manufacturing debt growth expected to slow to 2%-3% [1][3] - **High-Quality Nutritional Chemical Industry**: The industry has significant growth potential due to rising health product demand and high technical barriers, with New Hope Liuhe being a leading player [5][16] - **Aluminum Industry**: China Hongqiao is one of the largest aluminum producers globally, benefiting from high electrolytic aluminum prices and cost advantages [1][22] Company-Specific Insights SF Express (顺丰) - **Rating Upgrade**: SF Express has been upgraded to "overweight" due to its leading position in the high-end express market, operational efficiency improvements, and technological innovations, with expected profit growth of 11%-12% in Q2 [1][4][10] - **Investment Timing**: Current market conditions present a good buying opportunity, with projected free cash flow yields of 6.5%-8% from 2025 to 2027 [13] - **Risks**: The company faces macroeconomic risks that could impact its international and express business revenues, particularly if economic growth slows in 2025 [14][15] New Hope Liuhe (新和成) - **Market Position**: New Hope Liuhe holds approximately 15% of the global methionine market and 30% of the vitamin E market, with a positive outlook on its growth potential [16][19] - **Capacity Growth**: Expected capacity growth in the next three to four years is below 5%, aligning with global demand growth, indicating minimal supply pressure [17] - **Financial Health**: The company has a strong financial position, with a projected net cash status and positive free cash flow even during industry downturns [19] China Hongqiao (中国宏桥) - **Competitive Advantages**: The company benefits from high electrolytic aluminum prices, cost advantages from integrated operations, and a high dividend policy, with a one-year expected P/E ratio close to 7 times [1][22][23] - **Future Projects**: Participation in the Simandou iron ore project is expected to contribute significantly to profits, with an estimated 1.3 million tons of iron ore contributing approximately 1.7 billion in profits by 2027 [23] Financial Policies and Market Dynamics - **New Financial Policies**: Recent policies aim to control overcapacity and credit risks, including regulations on accounts payable management and rational investment by local governments [2][3] - **Investment Trends**: Approximately 74% of industrial sectors have slowed investment growth, but demand remains stable, with financial policies supporting a gradual recovery [7][8] Additional Considerations - **Express Delivery Pricing**: Recent price increases in the express delivery sector, particularly in Guangdong, need to be monitored for sustainability and impact on midstream profits [9][12] - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment and fundamental changes in the express delivery industry will be influenced by pricing strategies and demand fluctuations [12]

Summary of Cement Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cement industry in China has transitioned from a 10% share of new dry-process production lines in 2000 to nearly 100% by 2015, indicating significant technological upgrades and the elimination of outdated capacity [1][3] - The overall profitability of the cement industry has been good from 2015 to 2024, with profits exceeding 20 billion yuan in 2024 and some companies experiencing growth of 20%-30% in the first half of 2025 [1][4] Key Points - **Profitability and Debt Pressure**: The industry has maintained a stable profitability despite recent downward pressures, with a low debt ratio and ample cash flow contributing to a favorable financial position [4] - **Environmental Policies**: The impact of environmental production restrictions varies by region, with the East China market showing greater price elasticity during peak demand seasons compared to the North [5] - **Capacity Reduction Measures**: The industry primarily relies on environmental production limits rather than direct elimination of small outdated capacities, with annual capacity reductions generally around 30 million tons [6] - **Energy Consumption Policies**: The dual control policy on energy consumption has led to significant price fluctuations, with net profits for companies like Conch Cement reaching over 150 yuan per ton during peak periods [7] - **Current Market Characteristics**: The current market reversal point is characterized by good profitability, a high proportion of state-owned enterprises (55%), and a clear oversupply situation, making large-scale capacity reductions unlikely [8] Additional Insights - **Future Carbon Constraints**: Future carbon constraint policies are expected to become significant for the industry, likely manifesting after 2027 [9] - **Comparative Analysis of Cycles**: The current cycle shows similarities to previous cycles in terms of profitability distribution among companies, but differs in demand trends and price elasticity, with current demand being in decline [10][11] - **Supply-Side Reform Lessons**: Historical attempts at capacity reduction have not been fully realized, leading to ongoing oversupply issues, and the reliance on voluntary cooperation among enterprises to maintain industry discipline [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, focusing on the **electronic industry** and **coal sector** as well as the implications of **supply-side reforms** and **tax reforms** on corporate profitability and market dynamics [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **Third Plenary Session** emphasized the need for a **unified market** and **tax system reforms**, which are expected to enhance corporate profitability in the long term, although the market may underestimate these effects [1][3]. - The **supply-side reform** in China has led to the coal sector exhibiting characteristics akin to public utility benefits, with a potential shift in the tax system from production-based to consumption-based taxation [1][4]. - The **real estate bubble risk** is highlighted due to land finance driving urban construction, while the unified market aims to address local government debt issues [1][7]. - The **tax reform** and separation of production factors may position state-owned enterprises as crucial fiscal supports, potentially leading to more public utility-like coal operations and stabilizing multinational corporate profits [1][9]. - **Texas Instruments** initiated a price increase of **10% to 30%** across **60,000 product models**, marking a significant shift in the electronic industry, which is expected to influence domestic companies positively [10][11]. - The **domestic semiconductor companies** are anticipated to follow suit in price adjustments, benefiting from domestic substitution and tariff countermeasures, particularly in the automotive and industrial sectors [11][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **market volatility** following the political bureau meeting indicates a need for investors to discern between short-term thematic trading and long-term performance improvement [13]. - The **current phase** is likened to the **2015-2016 supply-side structural reform**, where policy documents will define future targets for key industries like steel and coal [14]. - Investors are advised to clarify their strategies, whether seeking short-term valuation recovery or long-term performance improvement, and to wait for demand signals or fundamental turning points before participating [15]. - The focus on **upstream resource industries** such as coal, steel, and energy metals is recommended, as these sectors have shown significant price increases since July [16]. This summary encapsulates the essential points from the conference call records, providing insights into the current state and future expectations of the Chinese economy and specific industries.

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" theme has a broader industry coverage compared to the supply-side reform from 2015-2018, including sectors like photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, steel, coal, building materials, basic chemicals, and pig farming [22][23][28] - The steel and coal industries are transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking, with steel profitability already improving, while photovoltaic and medical devices show stronger demand for "anti-involution" [27][28] - The report highlights that the photovoltaic and medical device sectors are in an active destocking phase, with high potential for price rebound if successful [27][28] Group 2 - The equity market is experiencing a slight decline in sentiment, with expectations for a high-level fluctuation in August, as the overall financial and industrial sentiment has decreased [31][32] - The 10Y government bond yield is expected to slightly decline to 1.70% in August, influenced by factors such as economic growth and inflation [50][53] - The real estate sector is under increasing demand-side pressure, with the industry pressure index rising slightly to 0.597, indicating a potential worsening of the market situation [69][71] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on high win-rate and high payout industries, including computer, electric equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, transportation, and light manufacturing [4] - The "clearing reversal" strategy suggests investing in industries that are at the end of the clearing phase, with rising demand and improved competitive landscape, such as oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and utilities [4][88] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of small-cap stocks, which have shown a slight increase in attention compared to large-cap stocks [87][88]

国泰海通煤炭黄涛团队 持续开展煤炭深度研究，分别从反内卷、电煤需求、煤炭企业成本、疆煤等不同视角切入，前瞻挖掘煤炭行业投资机会，以下为研究报告、电 话会议、深度报告节选。 一、研究报告 （点击标题查看报告） 专题研究： 深度研究： 01、煤化工风起新疆，或迎来黄金时代 20250102 二、电话会议回放 （扫码查看） 01、煤炭"反内卷"政策再起，供需拐点明确 7月22日 02、周期行业"反内卷"专题探讨 7月22日 三、重点报告节选 01、煤炭"反内卷"专题研究二：不一样的煤炭，中期行业拐点已现 20250730 02、煤炭"反内卷"专题研究一："反内卷"务实煤价底部，当下就是拐点 20250717 03、电煤需求展望专题：新能源步入下半场，电煤压力最大已过 20250707 04、电煤需求研究专题：从用电结构变化看电煤需求底部支撑 20250702 05、煤炭企业成本专题：从财务及固定资产视角看价格支撑 20250410 煤炭"反内卷"专题研究二：不一样的煤炭，中期行业拐点已现 报告日期：20250730 导读： 通过对比煤炭行业当前与其他周期性行业（如多晶硅、玻璃）在供给组成上的深层次差异，我们认为煤炭 ...

Core Insights - The value-added growth rate of China's large-scale non-ferrous metal industry increased by 7.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, surpassing the national average industrial growth rate by 1.2 percentage points [2] - The production of ten common non-ferrous metals reached 40.319 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with refined copper and electrolytic aluminum leading the overall industry growth [2] - Revenue and profit for the non-ferrous metal industry grew by nearly 15% year-on-year, significantly higher than the overall industrial average growth rate, attributed to effective supply-side reforms [2] Industry Performance - From January to June, large-scale non-ferrous metal enterprises achieved operating revenue of 479.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and total profit of 21.785 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [2] - The non-ferrous mining and selection industry reported a total profit of 59.55 billion yuan, marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 40.3% [2] - The expected annual growth rate for the value-added of the non-ferrous metal industry is around 5%, with a projected year-on-year increase of 2-3% for the production of ten common non-ferrous metals [2]

该行认为，信义光能上半年收入及净利润分别同比跌6.5%及58.8%，与早前盈警一致，基于供需不平衡 引致太阳能玻璃价格疲弱。该行认为，在抢装潮后需求转弱的情况下，企业已开始对窑炉进行冷修并延 迟产能扩张，令行业库存回落至30天以下。 智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，太阳能玻璃龙头企业应该会是供给侧改革的主要受益者。基于投 资者对供给侧改革的憧憬，将信义光能(00968)目标价由4港元微升至4.1港元，重申"跑赢大市"评级，并 将2025、26及27年净利润预测分别下调60.9%、33.6%及22.6%，基于产能扩张减慢及销售价格预测被下 调。 ...

里昂发布研报称，太阳能玻璃龙头企业应该会是供给侧改革的主要受益者。基于投资者对供给侧改革的 憧憬，将信义光能(00968)目标价由4港元微升至4.1港元，重申"跑赢大市"评级，并将2025、26及27年净 利润预测分别下调60.9%、33.6%及22.6%，基于产能扩张减慢及销售价格预测被下调。 该行认为，信义光能上半年收入及净利润分别同比跌6.5%及58.8%，与早前盈警一致，基于供需不平衡 引致太阳能玻璃价格疲弱。该行认为，在抢装潮后需求转弱的情况下，企业已开始对窑炉进行冷修并延 迟产能扩张，令行业库存回落至30天以下。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rally driven by the "anti-involution" policy, with a particular focus on the photovoltaic (PV) sector, which has been heavily impacted by overcapacity and price competition [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry, once a market darling, is now facing significant challenges due to severe overcapacity and price wars, making it a focal point for the "anti-involution" policy [2][3]. - Following the central government's call for "anti-involution," leading PV companies have begun to calculate their costs and collaborate to stabilize prices, leading to a recent increase in the prices of polysilicon and other PV products [3][10]. - Despite initial successes in price stabilization, the industry has struggled with self-regulation, as evidenced by the breakdown of price agreements and the resurgence of price wars [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Investors have shown mixed reactions, with some adopting a cautious approach while others are taking contrarian positions, betting on the recovery of leading companies in the PV sector [15][16]. - The market has seen significant fluctuations, with institutional holdings in PV stocks declining prior to the "anti-involution" policy, indicating a lack of confidence among investors [15][16]. Group 3: Policy Comparisons - The current "anti-involution" policy shares similarities with the 2015 supply-side reform, both emerging from a backdrop of economic slowdown and declining demand [20][21]. - However, the "anti-involution" policy is more complex, aiming not only to reduce overcapacity but also to address issues like low-price competition and the protection of small and medium enterprises [24][26]. Group 4: Demand Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing a critical demand issue, with the post-2021 period seeing a shift to stable growth, yet the aggressive expansion and financial overpricing have created significant pressure on demand [30][31]. - The recent surge in polysilicon prices poses a risk to downstream demand, complicating the recovery process for the industry [34][35].