Group 1 - The bond market has recently experienced a slowdown in its upward trend, with some maturities undergoing slight adjustments. Market sentiment has turned cautious as interest rates reached previous lows, leading to a shift towards a more volatile market environment. However, favorable conditions for the bond market remain largely unchanged due to stable fundamentals and a loose funding environment [1][3]. - Since August, bond market yields have shown a slowdown in their decline, with some maturities experiencing rebounds. Long-term bonds have outperformed short-term ones. As of August 12, the yield on 1-year government bonds was 1.81%, up 12 basis points from the August low, while the 10-year government bond yield remained stable between 2.72% and 2.74% [2][3]. - Analysts indicate that the favorable environment for the bond market has not significantly changed, with market interest rates expected to remain low. Economic recovery momentum is still uncertain, and credit expansion appears unstable, which does not currently impact the bond market's trajectory [3]. Group 2 - Several institutions suggest that increasing allocations to medium- to long-term bonds may be a primary source of excess returns in the second half of the year. The 5-year bond maturity is considered to have greater elasticity compared to others [4]. - The current funding environment remains supportive for the bond market, with a low likelihood of significant tightening in the short term. This is bolstered by coordinated fiscal and monetary policies aimed at maintaining a loose funding environment [3].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the bond market in China operated smoothly in 2022, with mixed fluctuations in government bond yields and a stable, orderly high level of openness to foreign investment [1] Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In 2022, the total issuance of various bonds in China reached 61.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The interbank bond market accounted for 56.0 trillion yuan of the total issuance, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, while the exchange market issued 5.8 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Specific Bond Issuances - Government bonds issued totaled 9.6 trillion yuan, while local government bonds amounted to 7.4 trillion yuan [1] - Financial bonds issued reached 9.8 trillion yuan, and corporate credit bonds issued were 13.8 trillion yuan [1] - Asset-backed securities for credit issuance totaled 334.5 billion yuan, and interbank certificates of deposit issued were 20.5 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Market Custody and Growth - As of the end of December 2022, the custody balance of the bond market was 144.8 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.3 trillion yuan [1] - The custody balance in the interbank bond market was 125.3 trillion yuan, while the exchange market's custody balance was 19.5 trillion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bond funds are experiencing significant growth in the public fund market, with a notable increase in new issuances and positive performance for the majority of these funds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of December 19, bond funds accounted for approximately 70% of all new fund issuances this year, with nearly 90% of bond funds achieving positive returns [1]. - There are currently 5,882 bond funds in the market, with a total scale exceeding 8 trillion yuan, representing over 30% of the total public fund market [1]. - In December alone, 78 new bond funds have been established, with 20 additional funds from various management companies currently in the application process [1]. Group 2: Performance Analysis - Among the 5,823 bond funds with performance data available, 5,086 funds, or 87.34%, reported positive returns this year [1]. - Seven funds achieved returns exceeding 10%, with the top three being 工银可转债债券 (12.92%), 天弘稳利定期开放A/B (12.18%), and another fund at 11.80% [1]. - Several other funds, including 蜂巢添汇纯债A/C and 诺德汇盈一年定开, also performed well with annual returns above 5% [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to see increased demand for allocation as the year-end approaches, despite a quieter market since November due to concerns over funding market volatility [2]. - Short-term outlook remains optimistic for the bond market, supported by recent central bank actions, while the medium to long-term perspective suggests a continued need to lower social financing costs due to high domestic real interest rates [2].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - July CPI year-on-year is 0%, better than the expected -0.1%, indicating stability compared to last year [1] - Month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.1%, weaker than seasonal trends, with food prices showing significant weakness [1] - Core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in 1.5 years, driven by demand recovery and the end of commodity subsidies [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - July PPI year-on-year is -3.6%, lower than the expected -3.4%, consistent with the previous value [2] - Month-on-month PPI decreased by 0.2%, showing a 0.2 percentage point improvement from the previous month [2] - The decline in PPI is primarily due to pressures from energy, black metals, and construction materials [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The low CPI and PPI indicate that overall inflation remains low, creating space for maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy [3] - The central bank is expected to continue using various tools to ensure reasonable liquidity, supporting the bond market's fundamentals [3] - Despite short-term market corrections due to risk appetite, the medium to long-term bond market outlook remains positive, influenced by economic fundamentals and policy direction [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The mid - term top of the 10 - year Treasury bond at 1.75% may be challenged but remains relatively reliable. After returning to the narrow fluctuation range, the 1.65% fluctuation center position is still valid. The view that "the winning probability of the long - end yield decline has not substantially decreased, and the odds have increased during the adjustment" is maintained. In the second half of the year, with the reduction of government bond issuance after August, the re - brewing of policy rate cuts, and the realization of fundamental pressure, there is still a possibility of opening up the downward space for interest rates [2][10]. - Most institutions have a "short - term bearish, long - term bullish" expectation for the bond market, but there are differences in the specific short - term trends. The demand - side policy pattern remains unchanged, and most institutions' expectations of "high in the front and low in the back" for the fundamentals, the judgment of the upcoming reduction of supply pressure, and the long - term bullish view on the bond market remain unchanged. However, the bond market has short - term concerns, and institutions do not have high expectations for the downward space of yields [2][11]. - The marginal improvement of inflation seems imminent, but it still takes time to reverse the trend. The PPI in July may not fully reflect the impact of the increase in commodity prices. There may be more support for prices in August, but the inflation data in August is crucial [3][12]. - The impact of tax policy changes is still being implemented. The new - old bond spread of 10 - year local bonds is about 6BP, and the issuance of 3 - year Treasury new bonds is the first observation window for the new - old bond spread [3][14]. - Liquidity is loose, which is the moat of the current bond market. Monetary policy operations may bring "surprises". The market has a neutral expectation of the current monetary policy easing, and in the context of low market expectations and trading sentiment, there is a higher possibility of "surprises" in monetary policy operations [3][17]. - The existence of expected differences is the best time for trading desks to layout. In the context of low yields and low volatility, it is difficult to operate the market following the trend. The short - term expected differences are a suitable layout opportunity [4][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Expected Differences are Layout Opportunities - The 10 - year Treasury bond's 1.75% top is a signal that interest rates may break through the low - volatility range. The market's short - term expected differences are a good time to layout bond market investments [4][19]. - The inflation improvement in August is crucial. The PPI in July may not fully reflect the impact of commodity price increases, and 8 - month inflation data can verify the improvement of prices [3][12]. - The impact of tax policy changes continues. The new - old bond spread of 10 - year local bonds is about 6BP, and the 3 - year Treasury new bond issuance is an important observation window [3][14]. - Liquidity is loose, and monetary policy operations may bring "surprises". The market has a neutral expectation of monetary policy easing, and the central bank's operations are more likely to exceed expectations [3][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Liquidity abundance drives a dual - bull market in stocks and bonds, but export data interferes with the bond market. The 7 - day OMO of the central bank was in a net - withdrawal state last week, yet the capital market remained loose. The short - term asset yields declined due to loose funds, and the mid - and long - term yields also had downward support after the weak bond market sentiment recovered. However, the July export data and the establishment of the Xinzang Railway Company triggered the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, restricting the downward space of ultra - long - term interest rates [2][87]. - The pricing focus of taxation is more inclined to new bonds, and the curve valuation may face upward pressure. The ChinaBond Valuation Center will gradually transition the yield curve and prioritize using new bonds to compile it. The winning bid rate of new local bonds on August 8 was higher than the valuation of the same - term old bonds, indicating that the pricing focus has shifted to new bonds. Potential tax policy changes may also push up the valuation center [2][88]. - Ample funds are beneficial for short - term interest rates to maintain good performance, and the curve shape may continue to steepen. The previous negative sentiment in the bond market has weakened, and the bond market pricing may become more neutral. Short - term interest rates are expected to perform well, while the downward space of long - term interest rates may be restricted. The strategy of "shortening portfolio duration + preferentially allocating old bonds" is recommended, and steepening the interest rate curve is also a cost - effective option [2][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On August 8, the central bank conducted a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, multiple - price - winning bid buy - back operation. After this operation, the buy - back was still in a net - withdrawal state as the August maturity scale was 9000 billion yuan [5]. - China's export in July 2025 reached 321.784 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, the highest growth rate since April. Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased by 9.2% and 16.6% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year [7]. - The State Council issued an opinion on gradually implementing free pre - school education, covering all kindergarten senior - class children and eligible private kindergarten children [9]. - On August 8, 2025, the Xinzang Railway Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 950 billion yuan, marking the start of the substantial construction of the Xinzang Railway project [12]. - On August 7, the ChinaBond Valuation Center announced that it would gradually transition the yield curve and prioritize using new bonds to compile it [13]. 3.2 Money Market - **Open Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends**: From August 4 to 8, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan. The policy interest rate for the 7 - day open - market reverse repurchase was 1.40%. As of August 8, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.341%, 1.454%, 1.312%, and 1.425% respectively, with changes compared to August 1 [15][20]. - **Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume**: Commercial bank certificates of deposit had a net financing of 177.31 billion yuan last week, with city commercial banks having the largest issuance scale. The 1 - year issuance rate of national and share - holding banks dropped to around 1.63%. In the secondary market, the yields of certificates of deposit declined, and the 1Y - 3M term spread widened [24][29]. 3.3 Bond Market - **Primary Market**: From January to August, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was faster than that of national bonds. As of August 8, the cumulative net financing of national bonds and local bonds in 2025 was about 4.37 trillion yuan and 5.27 trillion yuan respectively. The actual issuance of local government bonds in July was lower than expected, which may lead to an increase in the actual supply in August - September. Last week, the issuance and net financing of national bonds increased significantly, while the issuance of local bonds slowed down. The issuance scale of special refinancing bonds has reached 1.84 trillion yuan as of August 8 [34][41][42]. - **Secondary Market**: Last week, the market showed a bull - steepening trend. The short - and medium - term interest rates declined due to loose funds, while the ultra - long - term interest rates increased due to export data and strong risk assets. The trading volume and turnover rate of 10 - year national bond and national development bond active bonds decreased. The term spread and the spread between national and local bonds showed different trends [46][50][59]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The leveraged trading volume recovered last week due to loose funds. The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.42 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.21 trillion yuan from the previous week [67]. - In the cash bond market, state - owned banks mainly bought national bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, rural commercial banks mainly increased their holdings of national bonds with a maturity of more than 10 years, and securities firms and funds had a stronger buying force for national bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [70]. - The current加仓 cost of major trading desks for 10 - year national bonds is between 1.69% - 1.70% [74]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar, cathode copper, and Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased compared to the previous week, while the BDI index increased. The CCFI index decreased, and the prices of pork and glass also declined, while the price of vegetables increased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.14 [84]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The bond market may continue to show a steepening trend. The strategy of "shortening portfolio duration + preferentially allocating old bonds" is recommended, and steepening the interest rate curve is also a cost - effective option. Specific trading varieties can consider 250011 and 2500002 [89].

Group 1: Bond Market - In June, the bond market issued a total of 87,939.5 billion yuan in various bonds, including 15,903.9 billion yuan in government bonds, 11,753.2 billion yuan in local government bonds, 10,738.7 billion yuan in financial bonds, 14,257.3 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 247.2 billion yuan in asset-backed securities, and 34,569.3 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [1] - The interbank bond market saw a total transaction volume of 34.3 trillion yuan in June, with an average daily transaction of 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% but a month-on-month increase of 6.2% [1] - As of the end of June, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market reached 4.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.3% of the total custody balance, with 4.2 trillion yuan held in the interbank bond market [1] Group 2: Money Market - In June, the interbank lending market recorded a transaction volume of 8.4 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2% and a month-on-month increase of 26.0% [2] - The bond repurchase transactions totaled 156.3 trillion yuan in June, showing a year-on-year growth of 32.7% and a month-on-month growth of 20.4% [2] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.46%, down 9 basis points month-on-month, while the weighted average interest rate for pledged repos was 1.50%, down 6 basis points month-on-month [2] Group 3: Commercial Paper Market - In June, the acceptance amount of commercial bills reached 3.5 trillion yuan, with a discount amount of 2.8 trillion yuan; by the end of June, the acceptance balance was 19.3 trillion yuan and the discount balance was 14.8 trillion yuan [2] - Small and micro enterprises accounted for 93.2% of the total bill issuers, with an issuance amount of 2.4 trillion yuan, representing 69.8% of the total issuance [2] - The number of small and micro enterprises involved in discounting was 12.1 million, making up 96.3% of all discounting enterprises, with a discount amount of 2.0 trillion yuan, which is 71.9% of the total discounting amount [2] Group 4: Stock Market - As of the end of June, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,444.4 points, up 96.9 points or 2.9% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,465.1 points, up 424.5 points or 4.2% month-on-month [2] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 510.4 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.6%, while the Shenzhen market's average daily trading volume was 796.9 billion yuan, up 11.5% month-on-month [2] Group 5: Interbank Bond Market Participants - As of the end of June, there were 3,989 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [3] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 48.0% of the total bonds, primarily concentrated among public funds, large state-owned commercial banks, and insurance financial institutions [3] - The number of holders for a single corporate credit bond varied, with a maximum of 124 holders, a minimum of 1, an average of 12, and a median of 12; 88.4% of credit bonds had 20 or fewer holders [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market saw a slight increase on August 8, with the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) rising by 0.13% and the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2509) increasing by 0.14% [1] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 122 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The yields on major government bonds decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.7 basis points to 1.69% and the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.45 basis points to 1.914% [1] Group 2: Bond Market Trends - In the first half of the year, the bond market experienced adjustments, with a decline in small and medium-sized banks' enthusiasm for bond investments, particularly in April and May [2] - However, in July, the enthusiasm for bond trading among small and medium-sized banks rebounded, with total trading volume exceeding 17.24 trillion yuan, marking a new monthly high since early 2025 [2] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests that small banks will continue to increase their bond holdings, acting as stabilizers in the bond market [2] Group 3: Investment Products - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes for investors [3] - This product serves as a high-elasticity cash management tool and duration adjustment tool, making it attractive for investors in both short-term and long-term scenarios [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows mixed trends with some indicators like GDP growth having slight fluctuations while trade maintains an upward - positive momentum [1][2] - The global commodity market is influenced by multiple factors such as central bank policies, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical situations, leading to different trends in various commodities [4][5][9] - The financial market presents complex characteristics including bond market fluctuations, exchange rate changes, and the potential of capital market support for科创 enterprises [19][24][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, both showing a decline compared to the previous month [1] - In June 2025, social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and financial institution RMB loans all had different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year [1] - In June 2025, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased 2.8% year - to - date, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5% [1] - In July 2025, export and import values showed year - on - year growth, with exports growing 7.2% and imports growing 4.1% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's trade in July 2025 maintained growth, with exports (in RMB) up 8% and imports up 4.8%, and a trade surplus of 7051 billion yuan [2] - The July 2025 China warehousing index was 50.1%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace, and new orders for bulk commodity warehousing increased [2] - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a "stable" outlook, and China's macro - policies will continue to strengthen in the second half of the year [3] - There are differences within the Fed regarding interest - rate policies, increasing the uncertainty of monetary policy [3] 3.2.2 Metals - China's central bank increased its gold reserves in July 2025 for the 9th consecutive month, and global central banks' gold purchases are an important support for gold demand [4] - China's July 2025 rare - earth exports decreased 23% month - on - month, while soybean imports reached a record high and coal imports rebounded [5] - The SPDR Gold Trust's gold holdings increased 0.66% to 959.09 tons as of August 7 [5][6] - Dutch International Bank raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3250 per ounce [5] - London Metal Exchange inventory data on August 6 showed different trends for various metals [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased compared to the previous ten - day period [7] - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's imports of some commodities like iron ore decreased in quantity and price, while others like crude oil had different trends [7] - On August 7, stainless - steel and nickel futures prices rose, boosting market confidence [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On August 7, international oil prices continued to decline due to OPEC+ production increase plans, weak US economic data, and other factors [9] - A German energy company plans to purchase more natural gas from the US in the future [9] - Citi predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $60 per barrel by the end of the year [9] - Chevron's oil tankers will load oil in Venezuela later this month [9] - Germany's natural gas storage is lower than last year but replenishment is ongoing [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Philippines will suspend rice imports for 60 days starting September 1, which may affect global rice prices [10] - Most listed pig - raising companies had a decrease in pig sales volume in July 2025 compared to June, and pig and pork prices remained at a low level [10][11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 7, the central bank conducted 1607 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan [12] - On August 8, the central bank will conduct 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operations, and analysts expect the central bank to maintain market liquidity through various tools [12] 3.3.2 Important News and Information - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating and outlook, and China's macro - policies will continue to support the economy in the second half of the year [13] - The trading association strengthened the self - regulation of bond underwriting quotes [14] - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased, while gold reserves increased for the 9th consecutive month [14] - In July 2025, China's foreign trade reached a new high for the year, with exports and imports both growing [14] - The mechanism to support small - and micro - enterprise financing has achieved certain results [15] - The government will strengthen the governance of prominent issues in enterprise - related fines and increase supervision of government credit in enterprise - related matters [15] - In July 2025, the real - estate industry's bond financing increased significantly, and the average financing interest rate decreased [16] - The capital market will strengthen support for science - and technology innovation enterprises [17] - Hong Kong plans to strengthen the regulation of licensed money - lenders [17] - There were various events in the bond market including self - regulation, bondholder meetings, and credit rating adjustments [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market showed a generally volatile and slightly stronger trend, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declining [19] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [20] - The convertible bond index decreased slightly, with some bonds having significant gains or losses [20] - On August 7, money - market interest rates showed different trends, and Shibor short - end rates mostly decreased [21] - Bank - to - bank and inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate showed different trends, and some bond - issuing and trading operations had specific results [22] - European and US bond yields had different trends [22][23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On August 7, the on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [24] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research expects the convertible bond market to follow the positive trend of the underlying stocks in August [25] - CITIC Securities believes that the economic fundamentals have limited risks, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation of stocks and bonds in the short term [25] - Western Securities' fixed - income research shows that bond funds increased leverage in Q2 2025, and the duration of most types of bond funds reached a historical high [25] - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research predicts the 10 - year Treasury bond's trading range from August to October and points out potential risks [26] - CICC believes that the US economy improved in July 2025, and there are potential impacts on the US stock market and bond yields in the short term, but risk assets have long - term potential [26] - CICC's fixed - income research expects the bond market to continue to fluctuate, and credit spreads may follow interest - rate fluctuations [27] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On August 8, 227 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 151 bonds will be paid, and 186 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [28] 3.4 Stock Market Important News - On August 7, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with some sectors performing strongly and others weakly [29] - The Hong Kong stock market rose, and real - estate and non - ferrous metals led the gains [29] - MSCI adjusted its global index, adding and removing some stocks [29] - The National Healthcare Security Administration held meetings on "healthcare insurance support for innovative medical devices" with participation from many top - tier institutions [29]

Group 1 - The bond market showed slight gains in early trading on August 7, with the 30-year government bond ETF rising by 0.15% and the 30-year government bond futures contract increasing by 0.20% [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 160.7 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40%, indicating a stable liquidity environment [1] - The yields on major government bonds experienced minor fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.5 basis points to 1.699% and the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.05 basis points to 1.9175% [1] Group 2 - Starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [2] - The announcement is expected to lead to an increase in forward yield expectations for bonds, with a widening gap between near and long-term prices; however, the long-term impact on the bond market is expected to be limited, providing opportunities for long-term bond investments [2] - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes, making it suitable for investors looking to manage cash and adjust portfolio duration [2]