华金证券认为，A股短期震荡偏强的趋势可能进一步加强，基本面预期的改善可能导致A股突破上行。 一是近期A股震荡偏强的核心驱动因素可能进一步加强：首先，政策和流动性宽松是A股"五一"节后走 强的主要驱动因素，此次超预期大幅降低加征关税不会对国内政策和流动性宽松产生影响，反而可能进 一步加大美联储降息和人民币升值的预期，对流动性宽松预期有利；其次，中美缓和带来的风险偏好改 善是推动近期走势偏强的另一个核心因素，本次超预期降低关税对这个因素有进一步的更强的推动。二 是对短期A股震荡上行最大的压制因素可能大幅消减：首先，对加征关税导致的出口回落以及经济和盈 利基本面偏弱的担忧是压制短期A股走势的最大因素，本次超预期大幅降低关税可能大幅改善这种压 制；其次，A股短期持续维持偏低的成交额，主要还是对经济基本面的担心导致保险、基金及外资等机 构资金和增量资金未入市，本次降低关税可能大幅改善机构的风险偏好，一旦A股成交额放大，可能开 启突破上行的行情。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 盘面上看，军工、券商、半导体、汽车、地产等板块走低，有色、银行、家居、煤炭、医药等板块拉 升，光伏产业链、航运概念、跨境电商概念等活跃。 13日早盘， ...

消息面解读：两国达成短期关税减免协议成为市场焦点，中国同意将对美国商品的关税从125%降至10%，而美国则将对中国商品的关税从145%降至30%， 双方协议有效期为90天。关税协议的消息引发金融市场剧烈波动：美国国债收益率攀升，10年期收益率触及4.43%，创4月初以来新高。当前市场情绪正经 历从避险向风险偏好的显著转变。贸易紧张局势的缓和极大提振了市场风险偏好，导致资金从黄金等避险资产大规模流出。恐惧与贪婪指数显示市场正从恐 惧区域迅速转向贪婪，这通常预示着金价的进一步承压。流动性指标显示，随着资金涌向风险资产，黄金市场的流动性有所降低，这可能会放大短期内的价 格波动。 没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作，秦氏金升浸染金融行业十余载，有丰富的实战操盘经验和独特的交易理念，我们拥有全球稳健的交易系统在这里， 对黄金、原油、等投资领域研究多年，具有扎实的理论基础和实战经验，擅长技术面消息面结合式操作，注重资金管理和风险控制，操作风格稳健果断，以 随和负责的性格与犀利果断的操作而被广大投资朋友认可。分析文章只是对市场未来可能的描述，只是观点的表达，不作为投资决策依据，投资有风险，交 易务必注意合理的仓位配置、资金 ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment towards global trade relations is improving, leading to a negative correlation between risk assets and the euro's performance [1] - The euro has recently been viewed as a hedge against U.S. policy uncertainty, benefiting from safe-haven inflows during stock market declines [1] - The euro has depreciated significantly, dropping to 1.1079 against the dollar, marking a one-month low, with 1.10 identified as a key support level [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the euro may continue to face pressure, with any further trade progress potentially accelerating its decline [1] - Some institutions remain optimistic about the euro, with forecasts suggesting it could rebound later this year as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, potentially reaching 1.17 by the end of 2025 and 1.24 by the end of 2026 [1] - Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast, now expecting the euro to rise to 1.20 by December and further to 1.30 by the end of 2027 [2] Group 3 - The market has adjusted its expectations for the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate cuts, which may support the euro [2][3] - ECB Governing Council member Schnabel has expressed a cautious stance on further rate cuts, indicating that maintaining rates near current levels is appropriate [2] - Current market bets place the ECB's deposit rate at 1.75%, higher than previous estimates of 1.55% to 1.67% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

Core Insights - Morgan Asset Management indicates that the reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. is greater than expected, which is likely to trigger a risk-on sentiment in the market [1] - The firm anticipates that the market will temporarily regain its risk appetite, and the pressure for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates may also ease in the short term [1]

2025 年 05 月 11 日 中美瑞士谈判提升全球风险偏好， 美国散户看涨比例大幅提升 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250502-20250509) 证 相关研究 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 大 类 资 产 配 置 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 全球资产价格回顾：本周（20250502–20250509）市场聚焦美中新一轮经贸会谈，特朗普政府暗示可 能下调部分中国进口商品关税，阶段性提振乐观预期。1）利率 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a recent decline in gold prices, with the most active June 2025 gold futures dropping by $69.2 to $3372.6 per ounce, a decrease of 2.01% due to profit-taking by investors after two days of significant gains [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates despite President Trump's call for a rate cut, citing rising risks in unemployment and inflation [1] - China's central bank continues to contribute positively to the gold market, with gold reserves reported at 73.77 million ounces (approximately 2294.51 tons) as of the end of April, marking a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces (approximately 2.18 tons) for the sixth consecutive month [1] - Poland's central bank increased its gold reserves by 12 tons to 509 tons in April, while the Czech National Bank also raised its reserves by 2.5 tons, marking the 26th consecutive month of gold purchases [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop in gold prices, institutions remain optimistic about the outlook, with U.S. Bank analysts projecting that gold prices could rise to $4000 per ounce in the second half of the year, a significant increase from their previous forecast of $3500 by 2027 [2] - Silver futures for July delivery also saw a decline, dropping by $0.825 to $32.61 per ounce, a decrease of 2.47% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in risk appetite following China's interest rate cuts and confirmation of trade talks with the U.S., leading to a rise in Asian stock markets and commodity prices [1][5][6] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in the policy interest rate, bringing it down from 1.5% to 1.4% [1] - The upcoming visit of China's Vice Premier He Lifeng to Switzerland for trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to further influence market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Asian markets showed positive performance, with MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.4%, and notable increases in indices such as the South Korean Composite Index and the MSCI Vietnam Index [5][6] - Commodity prices, including iron ore and steel futures, experienced upward trends, with significant gains in agricultural products like soybeans, corn, and wheat, all rising over 1% [6][7] - International oil prices continued to rebound, with WTI crude oil rising over 0.63% and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.50% [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates an increase in risk appetite, leading to a weakening of safe-haven currencies [1] - The USD/CHF and USD/JPY both rose by 0.6% in early trading [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of moderate recovery despite external shocks, with a focus on the Chinese economy and its resilience amid external pressures [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Performance**: On May 2, the market rose due to better-than-expected U.S. economic data, strong earnings from tech companies, and positive signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations, leading to a general increase in global risk appetite [1][2]. - **Chinese Economic Resilience**: China's economy demonstrated strong resilience, with a stable PMI and robust consumer data during the May Day holiday, indicating a solid internal demand despite external challenges [1][5]. - **Policy Support**: The Chinese government has ample policy tools to stabilize the market and expectations, with the central bank and regulatory bodies planning to introduce financial policies to counter external demand impacts [1][6]. - **Currency Improvement**: The RMB exchange rate improved significantly during the May Day holiday, dropping from around 7.26 to approximately 7.21, which supported overseas risk appetite and contributed to positive capital market performance [1][4]. - **Consumer Spending**: Domestic consumption data during the May Day holiday showed strong performance, with retail and catering sales exceeding those during last year's National Day and this year's Spring Festival, reflecting the resilience of internal demand [1][5]. - **External Demand Pressure**: Anticipated external demand pressures in Q2 will lead to the gradual introduction of structural countermeasures by China, with ongoing tariff issues affecting U.S.-China economic relations [1][6][9]. - **Future Economic Outlook**: By 2025, external demand shocks are expected to increase, but China's real estate fundamentals are nearing a bottom, which may sustain long-term capital interest [1][9]. - **Internal Demand as a Driver**: In Q3, if external disturbances stabilize, internal demand will become a more significant driver of growth, with a focus on structural upgrades in technology-related sectors [1][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The recent rise in market sentiment is attributed to both external factors, such as the recovery of overseas risk appetite, and the stability of the domestic economy, supported by available policy space [2][3][11]. - **Future Policy Adjustments**: Financial and monetary policies are expected to be prioritized initially, with fiscal measures potentially introduced later to support the economy as pressures increase [1][8]. - **Monitoring Future Developments**: Attention should be paid to the potential for improved communication and negotiation between the U.S. and China in the latter half of the year, which could enhance market conditions [1][7].