Report Overview - Report Name: Baocheng Futures' Morning Report on Beans and Oils (September 11, 2025) [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The beans and oils market is facing a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Domestic bean futures prices are relatively resistant to the decline compared to foreign markets. The prices of various products such as soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are in a state of shock, with short - term intraday views being mostly shock - biased upwards [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Performance**: Intraday view is shock - biased upwards, medium - term view is shock, and reference view is shock - biased upwards [5] - **Core Logic**: The beans market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Domestic soybean meal futures are relatively resistant to decline. Under the background of high refinery operating rates, the inventory pressure of soybean meal continues to accumulate, and the negative basis has not improved. The differentiated trend of domestic and foreign bean futures will continue before the improvement of Sino - US trade relations [5] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Performance**: Intraday view is shock - biased upwards, medium - term view is shock, and reference view is shock - biased upwards [8] - **Core Logic**: There is still great uncertainty in the supply and cost fluctuations of long - term raw material soybeans, and the weak reality pressure of the industrial chain is difficult to resolve. Soybean oil futures prices are affected by US soybean oil, adjacent oil varieties, and Sino - US trade prospects, resulting in a wide - range shock [8] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Performance**: Intraday view is shock - biased upwards, medium - term view is shock, and reference view is shock - biased upwards [9] - **Core Logic**: The inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil has been released as expected, and its price pressure has an impact on domestic palm oil futures. After the short - term market pressure is released, the driving force for further decline is not strong. Palm oil futures prices fluctuate around energy attributes and industrial changes, and the short - term price may stop falling and stabilize [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillation [6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillation [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Weak oscillation [7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillation [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillation [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillation [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [13] - **Sugar**: Weak oscillation [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillation [16] - **Logs**: Weak oscillation [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy may lead to a turnaround in the pig cycle in 2026 [1][8]. - Oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, but have a high probability of running strongly in the medium term [6]. - Protein meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge [6]. - The market sentiment for corn should not be overly pessimistic. Traders are pre - arranging to stock up, and there are opportunities for short - term profit - taking and long - term low - buying [7][8]. - The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber follows the oscillation of natural rubber, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger from now to early October, with the key to upward breakthrough being the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. - Sugar prices are under increasing supply pressure and are expected to run weakly [15]. - The core driving force of pulp futures is difficult to determine, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. - The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs in the second half of the year is expected to increase. In the long term, the "anti - involution" policy aims to eliminate excess capacity, but there are resistance to active production cuts [1][8]. - **Demand**: The temperature is getting cooler, the price difference between fat and lean pigs is expanding, and the price ratio of meat to pigs is stable [1][8]. - **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year, with the main goal of destocking before the National Day [1][8]. - **Outlook**: Before the National Day, the spot and near - month pig prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract prices are supported by the expectation of supply - side capacity reduction, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [2][8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Macro Environment**: The market focuses on the Fed's September monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and US crude oil supply and demand [6]. - **Industrial End**: The drought - affected area of US soybeans is expanding, and the export demand of US soybeans is affected by Sino - US trade relations. The inventory of domestic soybeans and rapeseed has different trends, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and policies [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the medium term, they are more likely to run strongly [6]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and attention should be paid to weather changes. The discount of Brazilian soybeans has been adjusted, and the export of US soybeans is affected by the trade war [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The spot price is stable, and the downstream demand is expected to improve. There is no supply gap before December, and attention should be paid to trade relations and national reserve auctions [6]. - **Outlook**: The internal - external price difference may be repaired, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Supply**: The inventory of old - crop corn is decreasing, and new - crop corn is about to be listed. There are doubts about whether there will be a supply gap during the transition period [7][8]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory is seasonally low, and the procurement intention of large feed enterprises is low, but small enterprises in South China are replenishing stocks [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - term short positions are recommended to take profits, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be waited for. In the long term, there is a low - buying opportunity [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of various rubber products and raw materials have different changes, and the global natural rubber production and consumption have different trends [9]. - **Logic**: The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong. There are many speculative themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [9][11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene have different trends [12]. - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market follows the natural rubber market, and the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene provides cost support [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Supply**: The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level in the same period, and the supply pattern is tight before the new cotton is listed [13]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is gradually picking up, and the orders are increasing [13]. - **Purchase**: The expected purchase price of seed cotton by ginners may increase, but the expected large increase in new cotton production will suppress the increase [13]. - **Outlook**: From now to early October, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the key to upward breakthrough is the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **International Market**: In the new crushing season, the sugar production in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [15]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar is in the pure sales period, and the import volume is increasing [15]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to run weakly [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Market Situation**: The pulp futures have been weak, and the main reason for the decline is the low market acceptance of Brilliant Needle pulp [16]. - **Outlook**: The internal contradictions of the pulp market are divided, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, with some positive factors such as cost support and reduced supply pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The weak reality is reflected in high inventory and slow sales in the spot market, while the strong expectation lies in fewer purchases in the fourth quarter and export drivers. However, the expectation is fluctuating, leading to an unstable upward trend in prices. The short - term long - term view remains bullish, and for Y2601, it is advisable to go long around 8300 - 8310, with a pressure level at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [4]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports are expected to reduce Canadian rapeseed purchases. Increased imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia can partially offset the supply. The Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 1990 tons year - on - year. The price is under pressure in the short - term, with a support level at 9580 - 9698 and a pressure level at 9998 - 10333 [4]. - From August 1 - 25, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.21% month - on - month, and the export increased by 10.22% month - on - month. The decline in US soybean oil prices exerts a price - comparison pressure on palm oil. The price adjustment space is limited, with a support level at 9074 - 9100 and a pressure level at 9736 - 9998 [5]. - For soybean meal and soybean No. 2, the weak supply reality restricts the price increase. The expected increase in South American soybean imports weakens the strong supply expectation in the fourth quarter. Due to the fluctuating Sino - US trade relations, the prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 are volatile. It is advisable to wait and see for now [5]. - For rapeseed meal, due to the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the purchase of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease. The low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal squeezes the consumption of rapeseed meal. The price is expected to adjust downward, with a support level at 2400 - 2438 and a pressure level at 2632 - 2698 [5]. - For corn and corn starch, the external market is under pressure from the phased listing of South American corn and the expected high yield of US corn. The domestic market is also under pressure from continuous imports. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. For corn 11 contract, the support is at 2100 - 2120, and the pressure is at 2240 - 2250. For options, consider selling a wide - straddle combination or out - of - the - money call options [6]. - For soybean No. 1, the low - level supply of old soybeans and the continuous supply of reserve soybeans ensure the market supply. With the upcoming new soybeans, the supply is expected to increase. The demand is mainly rigid. It is not recommended to chase long, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The pressure level for the 11 - contract is at 4145 - 4150, and the support is at 3850 - 3900 [7]. - The planting area of new peanuts has increased by 4.01% year - on - year, with an expected increase in production. The price is under pressure, but the downward space is narrowing. It is advisable to reduce short positions [8]. - For live pigs, the spot price rebounded this week. The slaughter volume is increasing, and the phased supply pressure is rising. The futures price has rebounded and is at a premium to the spot price. For the 11 - contract, the reference range is 13500 - 14500 points. Mid - term, wait for the confirmation of capacity reduction and then consider going long on the 2601 contract [9]. - For eggs, the futures price rebounded and then fell. The spot price has stabilized and rebounded in some areas. The futures - spot price difference is converging. It is advisable to wait and see for now. Aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 1. Market Analysis - Various products in the feed, breeding, and oil sectors are in a state of volatile adjustment. For example, soybean No. 1 11 - contract, soybean No. 2 11 - contract, peanut 11 - contract, etc. are all expected to fluctuate. For energy and by - product sectors such as corn 11 - contract and starch 11 - contract, they are in a low - level volatile state, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. For the breeding sector, the live pig 11 - contract is expected to rebound, and it is advisable to hold long positions [13]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - In the cross - period arbitrage, for most products, it is advisable to wait and see, such as soybean No. 1 9 - 1, soybean No. 2 9 - 1, etc. However, for the soybean meal 3 - 5 contract, it is recommended to conduct a long - spread arbitrage, with a target range of 300 - 400. In the cross - variety arbitrage, for some products, different strategies are recommended, such as short - term bearish operation for 09 soybean oil - palm oil, and long - term bullish operation for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil [14][15]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products in the feed, breeding, and oil sectors, including soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, peanut, etc. [16] Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oils from different origins and shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices [18][19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as the port inventory of soybeans, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills, and the inventory of rapeseeds in coastal oil mills [20][21]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [21]. - **Weekly Data**: The data on corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of deep - processing enterprises, are presented [22]. 3. Breeding - The daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, price changes, production, consumption, and inventory data [23][25][27] Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - The report provides a series of charts on the breeding end (live pigs and eggs), oilseeds and oils, and feed end, including futures and spot prices, production, consumption, inventory, and other data trends [29][39][55] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options are presented [73][74] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The warehouse receipt data of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs are provided [76][77][78]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US consumer confidence index dropped to a 3 - month low, and inflation data reinforced the Fed's possible rate - cut expectation next month, making the US dollar index weak and global risk appetite cool. Domestically, China's August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.4 but stayed below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. With the extension of the tariff truce and increased US easing expectations, domestic risk appetite has risen in the short term. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a marginal increase in short - term macro - upward drivers. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation [3]. - For assets, the stock index is short - term shock - strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term high - level shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is advised; among commodity sectors, black is short - term shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is needed; non - ferrous is short - term shock - strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is required; precious metals are short - term high - level shock - strong, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: US consumer confidence decline and inflation data strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, weakening the US dollar index and cooling global risk appetite [3]. - Domestic: China's August manufacturing PMI improved slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce service consumption policies. Sino - US tariff truce extension and US easing expectations reduce external risks and increase domestic easing expectations, raising domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade and domestic policy implementation [3]. - Asset Recommendations: Stock index - short - term shock - strong, cautious long; treasury bonds - short - term high - level shock, cautious waiting; black - short - term shock, cautious waiting; non - ferrous - short - term shock - strong, cautious long; energy and chemicals - short - term shock, cautious waiting; precious metals - short - term high - level shock - strong, cautious long [3]. Stock Index - Driven by battery, small metals, and liquor sectors, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's August manufacturing PMI improved but was below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption will be introduced. Sino - US tariff truce extension and US easing expectations reduce external risks and increase domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. Black Metals Steel - Last Friday, the steel futures and spot markets were weak, with low trading volumes. The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" increases the expectation of steel production cuts. Currently, the fundamentals are weak, with inventory increasing and consumption of some varieties falling. Due to electric - furnace steel复产, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly due to northern restrictions. In early September, northern restrictions may further intensify. The steel market may rebound in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices were weak. High steel mill profits led to high daily hot - metal production, but northern restrictions in the coming week made steel mills cautious in purchasing. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 90.8 tons, and arrivals decreased by 83.3 tons. Mainstream Australian powder supply was stable, but traders were reluctant to sell. Iron ore port inventory decreased slightly. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Last Friday, silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices were weak. With the increase in steel production, ferroalloy demand was okay. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the north was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5770 - 5820 yuan/ton. Inner Mongolia's production was stable, with minor fluctuations. New production capacity may increase daily output by 500 - 800 tons in the future. The national silicon manganese enterprise开工 rate was 46.37%, up 0.62%, and daily output was 30170 tons, up 590 tons. Manganese ore prices were weak. Silicon iron was in a weak supply - demand balance, with stable cost support. The national silicon iron enterprise开工 rate was 36.18%, up 1.86%, and daily output was 16125 tons, up 3.43% (535 tons). Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Other Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Last week, the soda ash futures contract fluctuated. Supply decreased week - on - week, and new capacity will increase supply pressure. Demand was stable week - on - week, but downstream demand was weak. Profits decreased week - on - week and were in a loss state. Soda ash has a high - supply, high - inventory, and weak - demand pattern, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. - **Glass**: Last week, the glass futures contract fluctuated. Supply increased slightly, with stable production, increased开工 rate, and more production lines in operation. Demand was stable, with weak real - estate demand but increased downstream orders in mid - August. Profits increased slightly. Glass is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macroscopically, Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook led to a dollar decline. The US PCE inflation was in line with expectations, and a September rate cut is likely. However, domestic copper demand will weaken marginally, and the strong copper price may not last [9][10]. Aluminum - Last Friday, the aluminum closing price dropped by 10 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest. Aluminum inventory reached 620,000 tons, exceeding expectations. LME aluminum inventory was stable at a neutral level. In the medium term, the aluminum price increase is limited, and in the short term, it will fluctuate due to the peak - season expectation [10]. Aluminum Alloy - Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing the production cost of recycled aluminum plants. It is the off - season, with weak demand. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, but the upside is limited [10]. Tin - On the supply side, the combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. Some Yunnan smelters were under maintenance, and the tin ore supply was tight but will ease. African tin ore imports declined in July. On the demand side, the terminal demand was weak, with a decline in new photovoltaic installations and related industries. This week, the inventory decreased by 117 tons to 9161 tons. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weak demand [11]. Lithium Carbonate - As of August 28, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, down 0.6%, with a 49.35%开工 rate. Lithium mica production decreased, while lithium spodumene production increased. The August monthly production was 85,240 tons, up 5%. The Australian lithium spodumene concentrate CIF price dropped by 7.1%. Lithium carbonate production reached a new high in August, and the profit of lithium spodumene smelting compensated for the decrease in lithium mica. There are still disturbances regarding the reserve verification report of Yichun mining enterprises before the end of September. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon - The latest weekly production was 93,954 tons, up 7.0%. The number of open furnaces increased by 12 to 309, with an opening rate of 38%. Production increased in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu. The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, and there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. The anti - involution drive weakened, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [12]. Polysilicon - The August production is estimated to be about 1.28 million tons, and the September production plan may increase. There are rumors of a slight production cut in September, but the actual implementation needs to be observed. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells were stable, and the component procurement bid price increased, but the market mainstream price did not follow. The latest weekly inventory was 268,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 5,000 tons. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 340 to 6,880. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The anti - involution drive weakened, and the price is expected to turn weak in a fluctuating manner [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The probability of a short - term缓解 of the Russia - Ukraine situation is low, and the oil price rose slightly due to the risk of reduced Russian supply. Later, the North Sea spot benchmark and discount decreased, and the C - structure deepened. There is still short - term spot buying support, but the seasonal weakening of demand after September may lead to accelerated oversupply. The medium - and long - term bearish expectation of the oil price is strong. Attention should be paid to the OPEC production decision on September 7 and the rate - cut path in September [14][15]. Asphalt - The oil price change was limited, and the asphalt price was stable under cost support. The asphalt spot market was weak, and the basis decreased slightly. The social inventory did not decrease significantly, and the factory inventory decreased slightly. Profits recovered, and the开工 rate increased significantly. In the future, the oil price may decline due to OPEC+ production increases. With limited inventory reduction, the asphalt market may remain weakly fluctuating in the short term [15]. PX - The PX price rose due to the Zhejiang Petrochemical year - end maintenance plan but did not break through further. The PTA开工 rate is currently low but may increase. PX is in a tight supply situation. The PXN spread decreased to $255, and the PX foreign market price rebounded to $849. The PX market will fluctuate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [15]. PTA - Currently, the PTA load decreased slightly, and the high basis caused by the previous spot shortage has weakened. The processing fee has increased, and there are expectations of supply recovery. The demand growth has slowed, and the downstream开工 rate is 89.8%. PTA will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand [15]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory decreased slightly to 500,000 tons. The load of syngas - based plants is high, with limited room for further increase. The impact of the petrochemical industry capacity adjustment on ethylene glycol is limited. The long - term anti - involution logic is not highly priced. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to the downstream开工 recovery and crude oil cost fluctuations [16]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price decreased slightly due to the sector - wide decline. Terminal orders increased seasonally, and the short - fiber开工 rate rebounded slightly. The short - fiber inventory increased slightly. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders. It is recommended to go short on the short - fiber in the medium term following the polyester sector [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals increased the supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window due to the port price decline supported the spot price. The planned restart of MTO plants and the upcoming traditional downstream peak season indicate a marginal improvement in the methanol fundamentals. However, the oversupply situation remains, and high inventory suppresses the price. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. PP - The PP plant开工 rate increased, and new capacity was put into operation, resulting in a new high in weekly supply. The downstream开工 rate increased slightly, but the demand was weak. Although there is policy support, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. LLDPE - Current maintenance has relieved the supply pressure. Downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the inventory has decreased. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. However, as the maintenance ends and supply returns, the pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand. The LLDPE price is expected to fluctuate [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectation of new - crop US soybeans in August, the historical yield estimate has been revised. Recently, the export sales data improved due to Sino - US soybean trade negotiation news, and the net long position of CBOT soybean funds increased. With the upcoming harvest of US soybeans, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not optimistic. The pressure of concentrated listing is expected to be better than in previous years, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [18][19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The CBOT soybean futures price may be under pressure in the short term. Domestically, the increase in imported soybean rotation and the high - level procurement of oilseeds in the third quarter lead to a large inventory pressure. The risk of near - month/spot contracts has not subsided, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term. Rapeseed meal has a large high - inventory circulation pressure, but the low rapeseed inventory and few far - month purchases provide an upward - fluctuation basis [19]. Oils - Southeast Asian palm oil is in the peak production season. Exports are limited by the closure of the Indian low - tax festival stocking window and the substitution impact of international soybean oil. It is expected that Indonesia's low inventory will recover, and Malaysia's inventory pressure will increase. The price difference between international oilseeds and crude oil is under pressure, limiting the overall boost to oils. It is expected that domestic palm oil will be under pressure due to the weakening cost, while soybean and rapeseed oils have increased supply and demand, sufficient inventory, and a low - valued market may be repaired relative to palm oil [19]. Corn - In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn increases, and the main futures price has entered the range of last year's opening price. There is no pressure of concentrated arrivals as in last year, the carry - over inventory is low, and there is still a risk of excessive rainfall in the main production areas. Although the planting cost has decreased with the decline in land - leasing costs, under the policy atmosphere of stabilizing the price of important agricultural products and increasing farmers' income, it is unlikely to break through last year's range [19]. Pigs - At the end of August, the reduction in enterprise pig sales drove up the pig price, with an unexpected increase. The official has proposed the core regulation direction of "reducing weight, stabilizing production capacity, and restricting secondary fattening" to prevent large price fluctuations. The early - August sales and weight reduction have buffered some pressure, and some local areas have started purchasing and storage. The market has a certain willingness to support the price at low levels. The pig price in September should not be overly pessimistic [20].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Chinese Equities and Foreign Exchange (FX) Market - **Company**: UBS AG Core Insights and Arguments 1. **CNH Catch-Up Potential**: There is potential for near-term gains in CNH due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and a rebound in Chinese equities, with a fair value improvement to 7.00 on models [1][3][5] 2. **FX Management Changes**: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has shown a gradual tolerance for modest RMB strength, as indicated by the recent decline in USD/CNY fixings, suggesting a shift in FX management policy [2][7] 3. **Tariff Impact on CNH**: A significant reduction in USD/CNH to below 7.00 would require improved US-China trade relations, with a potential need to lower tariffs from approximately 35% to 20% [3][30] 4. **CTA Positioning**: Current positioning by Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) is heavily short on CNH, which could lead to a rapid decline in USD/CNH if daily fixings support continues [4][40] 5. **Balance of Payments (BoP) Improvement**: China's current account balance has reached a 10-year high, indicating strong BoP flows that should typically support CNH appreciation [5][20] 6. **Market Sentiment**: Despite the favorable conditions for CNH, the market has not fully embraced the potential for appreciation, with the onshore market remaining around 7.18 [2][18] 7. **Volatility and Carry Trade**: The current low volatility environment for CNH presents risks for carry trades, which could be vulnerable to shifts in FX policy [41][52] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context of FX Management**: The current tight trading range for CNH reflects the strongest FX management seen in the last decade, coinciding with the new PBoC governor's tenure [7][10] 2. **Equity Market Correlation**: The relationship between CNH and Chinese equities has weakened, with a notable decline in beta values, indicating a decoupling of these markets [10][12] 3. **Consumer and Business Confidence**: Domestic activity remains weak, with consumer and business confidence lagging, which may affect CNH's performance [52][56] 4. **Potential Regional Impact**: Changes in CNH could influence regional currencies, although the sensitivity of these currencies to CNH movements has been historically low [58][60] 5. **Future Rate Expectations**: If growth expectations rebound, there could be upward pressure on China’s interest rates, but the bar for a sustained rebound is considered high due to ongoing economic challenges [67][69] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the Chinese equities and FX market, particularly focusing on CNH's potential movements and the broader economic context.

Trade Relations - The US-China tariff truce has been extended for another 90 days, reducing short-term tariff risks, with a 70% probability of maintaining the current status[1] - The average tariff rate imposed by the US on China has increased from 51.8% in May to 54.9% in August due to additional tariffs on steel and aluminum products[7] - There is a 25% chance that the US-China trade conflict may escalate in the coming months[9] Economic Data - July's economic data showed a continued decline, with retail sales growth slowing down, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors[14] - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 1.6%, the lowest since October 2020, indicating significant challenges in consumption and investment[19] - Exports in July exceeded expectations, suggesting a potentially better outlook for the remainder of the year, although the overall trend remains downward[27] Policy Outlook - The government is expected to introduce an additional fiscal support of 0.5 to 1.0 trillion yuan, with implementation possibly starting by the end of September[51] - Recent fiscal policies focus on accelerating government bond issuance and implementing measures to stimulate domestic demand[43] - Monetary policy adjustments, including potential interest rate cuts, are anticipated by the end of September, contingent on economic performance and external factors[53] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment continues to face downward pressure, with July showing a significant decline in both property sales and prices[24] - Recent policy changes in major cities aim to optimize housing purchase regulations, indicating a new round of support for the real estate sector[55]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Volatile in the short term, with a high probability of stronger performance in the medium term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Volatile with an internal-weak and external-strong pattern. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies for hedging, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Volatile, with a short-term rebound and a long-term expectation of price decline due to increased supply [7][8] - **Pigs**: Volatile. The spot and near-term contracts are expected to remain weak, while the far-term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term [9][10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term [11] - **Cotton**: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term, with a price range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] - **Sugar**: Volatile and tending to weaken in the long term, with a short-term trading range of 5,550 - 5,750 yuan/ton [13] - **Pulp**: Volatile, with the main contract remaining weak [15] - **Logs**: Volatile and tending to weaken, with the option to buy the far-month 11 contract on dips in the range of 790 - 840 [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The continuous expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US exerts pressure on the oils and fats market, but factors such as increased biodiesel demand and potential reduction in US soybean yield may support the market in the medium term [5] - The rapid decline in soybean import crushing margins has led to a focus on the support at the integer level for soybean meal. The market shows an internal-weak and external-strong pattern [7] - The increase in forward orders has led to a rebound in the corn futures market, but the long-term expectation is for prices to decline due to increased supply [7][8] - The pig market is under inventory pressure, with the spot and near-term contracts remaining weak. The far-term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] - The natural rubber market is in a seasonally rising period, with support from both macro and fundamental factors, and is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen in the short term [9][10] - The synthetic rubber market follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the tight supply of its raw material, butadiene [11] - The cotton market has strong support at the current stage due to low inventory and improved demand, but may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] - The sugar market is under pressure from increased supply, with a long-term expectation of price decline and short-term volatility [13] - The pulp market shows a divergence between the near and far contracts, with the main contract remaining weak [15] - The log market has a marginal improvement in fundamentals but faces pressure from new warehouse receipts and low buyer willingness [16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Situation**: US soybean futures were volatile and bearish on Wednesday due to the expectation of a bumper harvest, and domestic oils and fats continued to adjust downward on Thursday, with palm oil being relatively weak [5] - **Macro Environment**: The market is concerned about the impact of US economic data on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. The US dollar rose and then fell on Wednesday, and crude oil prices rose due to a larger-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories [5] - **Industry Analysis**: US soybeans are growing well, and the market is sensitive to weather. The new US biodiesel policy is expected to benefit US soybean oil demand, but the demand has decreased year-on-year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, and soybean oil inventory may peak. Malaysian palm oil is likely to continue to accumulate inventory in August, and the demand for palm oil from Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high year-on-year [5] - **Outlook**: The adjustment pressure on oils and fats remains large in the near term, but there is a high probability of stronger performance in the medium term [5] 3.2 Protein Meal - **Market Data**: On August 28, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 89.69 yuan/ton, with a significant week-on-week decline [6] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans has recovered, and the weather in the US soybean-producing areas is generally favorable. Brazilian soybean exports have peaked, and the premium has been falling. Domestically, the import crushing margin has declined rapidly, and the state reserve will auction 164,000 tons of imported soybeans on August 29. The supply gap risk before December has significantly decreased, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7] - **Outlook**: The market maintains an internal-weak and external-strong pattern. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies for hedging, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7] 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Market Information**: The average price of domestic corn was 2,351 yuan/ton, with a slight decline. The closing price of the main contract was 2,185 yuan/ton, with a 0.97% increase [7] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of old corn is tightening, but the supply of new corn will gradually increase. The demand side has some replenishment needs, and there is a risk of a late rebound. The long-term expectation is for prices to decline due to increased supply [7][8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in the destocking of old corn, and there is an expectation of price decline during the peak period of new corn listing. In the long term, the expectation of tight supply supports the idea of low-price buying [7][8] 3.4 Pigs - **Market Information**: On August 28, the price of live pigs in Henan was 13.64 yuan/kg, with a 0.59% increase. The closing price of the futures contract was 13,590 yuan/ton, with a 1.13% decrease [8] - **Logic Analysis**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the inventory pressure is high. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to guide the industry to eliminate excess capacity, but the implementation needs to be observed [8] - **Outlook**: The market is volatile, with the spot and near-term contracts remaining weak and the far-term contracts supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Situation**: The natural rubber futures market was strong on Thursday, with prices rising [9] - **Logic Analysis**: The natural rubber market is in a seasonally rising period, with various speculative themes. The short-term supply of ships may decrease, and the demand is rigid. The supply increase may be postponed due to heavy rainfall in the producing areas [9][10] - **Outlook**: The macro sentiment is favorable, and the fundamentals are supportive in the short term. The rubber price is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen [9][10] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Situation**: The BR futures market rebounded following the trend of natural rubber [11] - **Logic Analysis**: The synthetic rubber market follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the tight supply of its raw material, butadiene. The supply of butadiene has decreased due to some device maintenance and production reduction, and the demand from the main downstream industries is stable [11] - **Outlook**: The price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly in the short term, and the futures market is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen [11] 3.7 Cotton - **Market Information**: As of August 28, the number of registered warehouse receipts for the 24/25 cotton year was 6,720. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts showed a decline [12] - **Logic Analysis**: The current commercial inventory of cotton is at a relatively low level, and the demand is improving. The expected increase in the purchase price of seed cotton by upstream ginneries will support the futures price. However, the expected increase in production in the new year may put pressure on prices [12] - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen in the short term, with a price range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] 3.8 Sugar - **Market Information**: As of August 28, the closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures contracts showed a decline [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the new sugar season is expected to have an oversupply situation, with Brazil's sugar production increasing and Thailand and India also expected to have higher yields. Domestically, the import volume of sugar has increased, leading to an increase in supply [13] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the sugar price is expected to decline due to the expected oversupply. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile within the range of 5,550 - 5,750 yuan/ton [13] 3.9 Pulp - **Market Information**: The prices of some pulp varieties in Shandong showed a decline [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The pulp futures market showed a divergence between the near and far contracts, with the main contract continuing to decline. The decline is mainly attributed to the delivery pressure of the 09 contract. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, with the broadleaf pulp market showing a marginal improvement [15] - **Outlook**: The pulp market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract remaining weak [15] 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market was weak this week, with the 09 contract adjusting downward [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The fundamentals of the log market have improved marginally, with a reduction in supply pressure and an increase in cost. However, the new warehouse receipts and low buyer willingness may put pressure on the market [16] - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to be volatile and tend to weaken. It is recommended to buy the far-month 11 contract on dips in the range of 790 - 840 [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The short - term may have fluctuations, but the medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. The Y2601 contract may have short - term fluctuations, and different strategies are recommended for different types of investors [3]. - The market expects a significant reduction in China's procurement of Canadian rapeseed. The short - term of rapeseed oil may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and import policy dynamics [3]. - The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased in the short - term, and exports are good. The domestic consumption is weak, but the long - term view is still bullish, with short - term adjustment needs [4]. - The prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 have weakened due to increased imports and uncertain Sino - US trade relations. Short - term short - selling operations are recommended [4]. - Rapeseed meal may adjust downward in the short - term, but the downward space is limited due to the expected reduction in subsequent rapeseed procurement [5]. - Corn and corn starch futures prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to reduce short positions at low prices [5]. - The price of soybean No. 1 is under pressure due to the approaching new soybean listing and the continuous state reserve auction. It is recommended to hold short positions [6]. - The new - season peanuts have an expected increase in production, which exerts pressure on prices. However, the short - term downward space is limited, and it is recommended to reduce short positions [7]. - The price of live pigs is under pressure in the short - term, but there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - term. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [7][8]. - The egg futures price has fallen to a low level. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling, and aggressive investors can consider buying the 11 - contract at low prices [8]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 11 - contract is expected to be bearish in shock, with a support level of 3850 - 3900 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 4145 - 4150 yuan/ton; soybean No. 2 11 - contract is expected to adjust in shock, with a support level of 3600 - 3630 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 3950 - 4000 yuan/ton; peanut 11 - contract is expected to be bearish in shock, with a support level of 7500 - 7600 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 8100 - 8162 yuan/ton [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 - contract is expected to be bullish in shock, with a support level of 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 01 - contract is expected to adjust in shock, with a support level of 9600 - 9610 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 9998 - 10343 yuan/ton; palm oil 01 - contract is expected to adjust in shock, with a support level of 9074 - 9338 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 9900 - 9990 yuan/ton [11]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal 01 - contract is expected to be bearish in shock, with a support level of 2980 - 3000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 3180 - 3200 yuan/ton; rapeseed meal 01 - contract is expected to be bearish in shock, with a support level of 2400 - 2431 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 2632 - 2698 yuan/ton [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a support level of 2100 - 2120 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton; corn starch 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a support level of 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 2580 - 2590 yuan/ton [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Live pig 11 - contract is expected to rebound in shock, with a support level of 13500 - 13750 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 14500 - 15000 yuan/ton; egg 10 - contract is expected to find the bottom in shock, with a support level of 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For most varieties, the current recommendation is to wait and see, except for the soybean meal 3 - 5 spread, which is recommended for positive arbitrage, and the live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 spreads, which are recommended for positive arbitrage at low prices [12][13]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Different strategies such as short - selling, long - buying, and waiting - and - seeing are recommended for different oil - related and protein - related inter - variety spreads [13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [14]. Part II: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and开机率 (start - up rate) data of different oilseeds and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans at ports, the inventory and开机率 of soybean meal at oil mills, etc. [18][19] 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory,开机率, and other data of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3. Livestock Farming - It provides daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, production, consumption, inventory, and profit - related data [21][22][23][24] Part III: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of futures and spot prices, production, consumption, and other aspects of live pigs and eggs [27][29][30][34] - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: It includes charts of production, exports, inventory, import profit, and price spreads of Malaysian palm oil and domestic palm oil [37][38][41] - **Soybean Oil**: It includes charts of soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and oil mill开机率 in the United States and China [44][45][46] - **Peanuts**: It includes charts of peanut arrival, shipment, pressing profit, and inventory [51][53] - **Feed** - **Corn**: It includes charts of corn futures and spot prices, inventory, import volume, and consumption in deep - processing enterprises [55][56][57] - **Corn Starch**: It includes charts of corn starch futures and spot prices,开机率, and inventory [60][61] - **Rapeseed**: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and pressing profit [62][64][70] - **Soybean Meal**: It includes charts of soybean growth progress, inventory of soybeans and soybean meal [74][77] Part IV: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - It includes charts of historical volatility of various varieties and the trading volume and open interest of corn options [79][80][82] Part V: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - It includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [86][88][90]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the financial futures market, the Fed's policy shows marginal loosening, and the dollar index is in a short - term shock pattern. The RMB exchange rate is expected to run below 7.20 in the short term. The stock index adjustment amplitude and duration are to be observed, the treasury bond may rebound further, and the container shipping index may continue to fall or shock, with the risk of low - level rebound for some contracts [1][2][3][4] - In the commodity market, precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term; copper prices may continue to decline in the short - term; aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term, while alumina is expected to be weak; zinc is in a short - term stalemate; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong; tin is slightly strong; lithium carbonate may have short - term rebound opportunities; industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a shock adjustment stage; lead is in a narrow - range shock; steel products are in a weak pattern; iron ore is expected to shock; coking coal and coke have price constraints; silicon iron and silicon manganese have supply pressure; crude oil is recommended to short at high prices; LPG is expected to be weak in the short - term; PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by cost and sentiment; PP is in a short - term shock pattern; PE is recommended to buy at low prices; pure benzene and styrene are in a shock - falling pattern; fuel oil is under downward pressure; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be long; asphalt is mainly affected by cost; rubber is expected to be in a range - shock pattern; urea is in a pattern with support and suppression; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to be weak [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September, and service consumption may become a key area. Industrial enterprise profits are still in negative growth, and the overall domestic economic contradiction remains unchanged. The Fed's policy is marginally loosening, and the dollar index is in a short - term shock pattern [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down slightly. The Fed's policy and other factors affect the exchange rate. The short - term dollar - RMB spot exchange rate is expected to run below 7.20 [1][2] Stock Index - The stock index fell sharply, with increased trading volume. Due to profit - taking and policy expectations, the short - term adjustment may continue, but the amplitude and duration are to be observed [2][3] Treasury Bond - The treasury bond rebounded. The stock market's high - level adjustment may provide room for the treasury bond to rebound further [3] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures prices fell. The current spot price situation and market sentiment are negative for the futures price, and there is a risk of low - level rebound for some contracts [3][4] Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - The precious metals market was slightly strong. The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and personnel adjustment. The short - term is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6][7] Copper - The copper price fell slightly. The dollar index's rebound and demand factors put pressure on the copper price, and the short - term is expected to continue to decline [7][8][9] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term due to policy and demand factors. Alumina is expected to be weak due to supply surplus. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong due to cost support [9][10] Zinc - The zinc price was slightly up. The supply is in a surplus state, and the demand is stable. The short - term is expected to be in a shock pattern, and an internal - external arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - The nickel price rose, and the stainless steel price fell slightly. The market is waiting for a clear signal, and the short - term is expected to be strong, with attention to new energy support [13] Tin - The tin price rose. The supply is relatively tight, and the demand is acceptable. The short - term is expected to be slightly strong [13][14] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated. The market is affected by "small essays", and the short - term may have a rebound opportunity, but the medium - long - term supply is still loose [15][16][17] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures price was slightly up, and the polysilicon futures price fell. The market is affected by unverified news, and it is recommended to wait and see or trade with a shock strategy [17][18] Lead - The lead price fell slightly. The supply is weak, and the demand is in a "not - so - prosperous peak season" situation. The short - term is expected to be in a narrow - range shock pattern [19][20] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil continued to be weak. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The market is affected by coal supply and steel mill production reduction [21][22] Iron Ore - The iron ore price was relatively stable. The previous premium was small, and the short - term price decline space is limited. It is expected to run in a shock pattern [22][23][24] Coking Coal & Coke - The coking coal price was in a shock pattern, and the coke price had a downward pressure. The market is affected by coal supply, steel mill production reduction, and downstream demand [25][26][27] Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese - The supply of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased, and the demand was not significantly improved. The price is affected by coal price and market sentiment, and it is recommended to try long at the 60 - day moving average [27][28] Energy & Chemicals Crude Oil - The international crude oil market was highly volatile. The EIA data was positive, but the market lacked a one - way trend. The Chinese SC crude oil was weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices [29][30][31] LPG - The LPG price was in a shock pattern. The supply is loose, and the demand is stable. The short - term is expected to be weak [32][33] PTA - PX - The PX - TA prices fluctuated widely. The supply is affected by device news, and the demand is seasonally improved. It is recommended to short the processing fee at high prices and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [34][35][36] MEG - Bottle Chips - The ethylene glycol market had both supply and demand growth. The short - term is expected to be in a shock - strong pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38] PP - The PP price was in a shock pattern. The supply is under pressure from new capacity, and the demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to continue the shock pattern [38][39][40] PE - The PE price fell slightly. The supply growth is limited, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to buy at low prices, but attention should be paid to the demand recovery [41][42][43] Pure Benzene & Styrene - The pure benzene and styrene prices fell. The supply and demand of pure benzene are in a complex situation, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase, with attention to the inventory and demand [44][45] Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price was under downward pressure. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is acceptable. The market is affected by sanctions and inventory [46][47] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil price was in a shock pattern. The supply is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. The short - term is recommended to be long [47][48] Asphalt - The asphalt price was in a shock pattern. The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by weather and funds. The short - term is mainly affected by cost [48][49][50] Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - The rubber price was in a shock pattern. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is expected to be warm in the third quarter. The short - term is expected to be in a range - shock pattern [50][51][52] Urea - The urea price was in a pattern with support and suppression. The demand is affected by the military parade and export, and the short - term is expected to be in a shock pattern [53] Glass, Soda Ash, Caustic Soda - The soda ash price was in a weak pattern. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by inventory and cost [53][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and fats: In the near term, it may continue to fluctuate and adjust, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium term [5] - Protein meal: The market continues the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas, with domestic spot stronger than the futures [1][6][7] - Corn and starch: In the short term, the price fluctuates weakly; there is still a downward expectation during the new crop's concentrated listing period; in the long term, the market supports the idea of low - level absorption in the far - month [7][8] - Pigs: The fundamentals remain loose, with spot and near - month contracts expected to remain weak, and far - month contracts supported by supply - side capacity reduction expectations [9] - Natural rubber: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [11] - Synthetic rubber: The futures may fluctuate strongly in the short term [12] - Cotton: From now to early October, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; it may be under pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [13] - Sugar: In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the short term, it runs in the range of 5550 - 5750 yuan/ton [15] - Pulp: The futures are expected to fluctuate [16] - Logs: The 09 contract has pressure, dragging down far - month contracts [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows different trends. Some products are affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policies, resulting in fluctuations in prices. The report provides investment suggestions based on the analysis of various factors of different products [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as US monetary policy, crude oil, and soybean weather, domestic and foreign oil and fat markets fluctuate. The export and production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory and import of domestic oils also have an impact on the market [5] - **Outlook**: In the near term, it may continue to fluctuate and adjust; in the medium term, there is a high probability of continuing to strengthen [5] 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the excellent rate of US soybeans has rebounded, and Brazilian soybean exports have passed the peak. Domestically, the state reserve will auction soybeans, and the spot is stronger than the futures. The supply gap risk before December has weakened, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [1][7] - **Outlook**: The market continues the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas. It is recommended that oil mills sell hedging on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price on dips [1][7] 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is stable with a slight decline. The supply side inventory is digested, and the demand side acceptance of high - priced grain is low. The new crop's production situation is normal, and the supply is expected to increase [7][8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price fluctuates weakly; in the long term, the market supports the far - month low - level absorption idea [7][8] 3.1.4 Pigs - **Logic**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the medium - term supply is expected to increase. The demand may increase with the cooling weather, and the "anti - involution" policy is being promoted [9] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals remain loose, with spot and near - month contracts expected to remain weak, and far - month contracts supported by supply - side capacity reduction expectations [9] 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The price follows the financial market down. The supply and demand side is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [11] - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [11] 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The futures follow the natural rubber down. The raw material butadiene is short - term tight, providing cost support [12] - **Outlook**: The short - term futures may fluctuate strongly [12] 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The commercial inventory is low, the downstream demand is improving, and the expected purchase price of ginned cotton by upstream ginning mills is increasing [13] - **Outlook**: From now to early October, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; it may be under pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [13] 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: Internationally, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. Domestically, the import volume is increasing [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the short term, it runs in the range of 5550 - 5750 yuan/ton [15] 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The futures continue to decline, mainly due to the delivery pressure of bleached softwood kraft pulp. The supply and demand change is not significant, and the short - term weakness continues [16] - **Outlook**: The futures are expected to fluctuate [16] 3.1.10 Logs - **Logic**: The 09 contract has delivery pressure, dragging down far - month contracts. The short - term fundamentals have improved marginally, but there are still delivery product pressures [17] - **Outlook**: The 09 contract has pressure, dragging down far - month contracts [17] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report monitors data of various varieties including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [20][38][51] 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include "strong", "fluctuating strongly", "fluctuating", "fluctuating weakly", "weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and the standard deviation defined as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [167] 3.4 Commodity Index - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined. The agricultural product index also declined, with a year - to - date increase of 1.84% [169][171]