Macroeconomic Overview - The international political and economic landscape experienced significant turbulence last week, with Trump announcing a 50% tariff on the EU starting in June, leading to a surge in gold prices and a sharp decline in the euro. The EU is preparing a countermeasure worth €95 billion [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Beautiful Act," which is expected to add $2.3 trillion to $3.3 trillion in fiscal deficits over the next decade, raising market concerns about U.S. debt risks [1] - The Federal Reserve's independence was supported by a Supreme Court ruling, but there are notable divisions among officials regarding the path for interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly between Israel and Iran, with Israel's military actions drawing international condemnation. Trump's mediation efforts for a ceasefire in Ukraine faced setbacks [1] - This week, market focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's policy minutes, expectations for interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, economic data from Europe and the U.S., and OPEC+ production plans, amidst ongoing trade tensions, debt risks, and geopolitical conflicts [1] Dollar Index - Last Friday, the dollar index showed a downward trend, reaching a high of 99.917 and a low of 99.019, closing at 99.078. The market experienced a significant decline, indicating a bearish outlook [2] - From a multi-timeframe analysis, the weekly resistance is at 101.70, suggesting a bearish trend in the medium term. Key resistance on the daily chart is at 100.30, with further pressure expected below this level [2] Gold Market - Gold prices generally increased last Friday, peaking at 3365.76 and closing at 3359.92. The price action indicates a bullish trend, supported by previous resistance levels [4] - An analysis of multiple timeframes shows that gold is supported at the 3160 level on the weekly chart, with a bullish outlook unless this support is broken. Daily support is at 3280, and short-term support is at 3323-3324 [5][6] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed an overall upward trend last Friday, with a low of 1.1277 and a high of 1.1375, closing at 1.1364. The market demonstrated strong bullish momentum, particularly after breaking through key resistance levels [8] - Multi-timeframe analysis indicates long-term bullish sentiment, with support at 1.0800 on the monthly chart and 1.1090 on the weekly chart. The daily chart shows a recent upward breakout, maintaining bullish expectations [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin price surpassed $110,000 in May 2025, equivalent to approximately 800,000 RMB, marking a historical high and raising questions about its value and nature [1][3] Group 1: Bitcoin Fundamentals - Bitcoin was created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto and operates on a decentralized blockchain technology, which allows for secure and unalterable transaction records [1][3] - The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, giving it an anti-inflationary characteristic, leading some to refer to it as "digital gold" [1][3] Group 2: Price Surge Drivers - U.S. policy developments, particularly the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, have injected liquidity into the digital currency market, encouraging institutional investment [3] - Companies, including Strategy, have accumulated over $50 billion in Bitcoin, increasing market demand [3] - Rising macroeconomic risks, such as the U.S. debt crisis and geopolitical tensions, have led investors to view Bitcoin as a hedge, decoupling its price movements from traditional assets like gold [3] Group 3: Mining Challenges - Mining Bitcoin requires significant computational power, with a high-end home computer yielding only 0.0018 Bitcoin per day, necessitating 556 days to mine a single coin [5] - The cost of electricity for mining can exceed the value of the Bitcoin mined, making it economically unfeasible for average individuals [6] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape in China - China has banned Bitcoin mining due to its high energy consumption, which contradicts the country's carbon reduction goals [9] - The financial risks associated with Bitcoin's price volatility and its use in illicit activities have led to stringent regulations [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Predictions for Bitcoin's price by the end of 2025 range from $150,000 to $200,000, but these projections come with significant risks related to policy changes and market competition [11] - The narrative surrounding Bitcoin reflects both a technological revolution and a speculative market, suggesting that for most individuals, the dream of quick wealth is unrealistic [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationship, geopolitical risks, policy changes, and seasonal factors. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others may show a clear upward or downward trend [2][3][4] - For most commodities, the supply - demand relationship is the key factor affecting prices. For example, in the energy sector, the supply and demand of crude oil, natural gas, and refined oil products are affected by production policies, geopolitical situations, and seasonal demand changes; in the metal sector, the supply and demand of metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by factors such as mining production, downstream consumption, and inventory levels [2][5][7] - Policy factors also have a significant impact on the market. For example, tax policies, trade policies, and environmental protection policies can all affect the production, consumption, and trade of commodities, thereby affecting prices [4][15][34] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices weakened, and the market is worried about the oversupply of crude oil. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East may increase the volatility of crude oil prices. Pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear talks on May 23 [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the LU cracking spread has strengthened passively. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, but the pre - peak power generation stocking demand in the Middle East and North Africa provides support, and the high - sulfur cracking spread is expected to fluctuate upward at a high level [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The domestic arrival price has declined, the import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been adjusted downward. The PDH start - up rate has declined, and the spot price is under pressure. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [23] - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the content. - **Coal (Coking Coal, Coke)**: The prices of coking coal and coke are weak. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream iron - water production has peaked, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under the influence of inventory and external sentiment [16][17] Metals - **Precious Metals (Gold, Silver)**: The economic data in the United States is resilient, and the price of precious metals has fallen. The international gold price shows resistance above the strong support level of $3000/ounce, and the idea of buying on dips is maintained [3] - **Base Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, etc.)**: - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated overnight. The US manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the employment is relatively weak. The domestic spot copper premium has narrowed, and short positions above 78,000 yuan for the 2507 contract are recommended to be held [4] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fell slightly overnight. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased. The demand is facing seasonal weakening and trade frictions, but the inventory is at a low level. The Shanghai aluminum price will continue to test the resistance at the key position of 20,300 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The supply of imported zinc ore is increasing, the refinery's raw material inventory is at a high level, and the supply is expected to be in surplus. The zinc price is expected to continue to be shorted [7] - **Lead**: Some overseas lead has flowed into the domestic market. The price of refined lead has decreased, and the social inventory has decreased. The LME lead inventory has increased significantly. The import window may open periodically, and the lead market is fundamentally weak [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded and then fell under pressure. The market trading is light. The NPI price continues to decline, and the inventory of pure nickel and stainless steel is high. The Shanghai nickel price is at the end of another rebound, and short - sellers are advised to wait for new short - building opportunities [9] - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuated and closed down overnight. The low - grade tin mines are resuming production, and short positions are recommended to be maintained [10] - **Alumina**: The alumina price fell overnight. The risk of long - term shutdown in Guinea's mining areas exists, but it is not enough to reverse the annual ore surplus. The short - term price trend is strong, but the supply elasticity is large after the industry profit recovers, and the price may be under pressure below 3500 yuan [6] - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Manganese, Ferrosilicon)**: - **Silicon Manganese**: The price rebounded significantly. After the bidding of the benchmark steel mill, the price rebounded. The production has decreased, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The market expectation has improved, and the price may rise in the short term [18] - **Ferrosilicon**: The price fluctuated. The iron - water production is at a high level, the export demand is stable, and the demand is generally okay. The supply continues to decline, and the price is affected by tariffs. It may follow the upward movement of silicon manganese in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [19] Chemicals - **Polyethylene, Polypropylene, PVC, etc.**: - **Polyethylene**: The domestic supply pressure has weakened due to increased device overhauls, but the downstream products are in the off - season, and the social inventory is high, so the pressure is difficult to relieve [26] - **Polypropylene**: The upstream petrochemical enterprises continue to destock, and the terminal demand is weak. The market is mainly driven by trade - offs and price - cuts by traders, and the on - site sentiment is cautious [26] - **PVC**: The inventory has decreased, but the domestic demand is weak, the export is expected to weaken, and the supply is under pressure. The cost support is not obvious, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [27] - **Caustic Soda**: The start - up rate has increased slightly, the downstream replenishment demand has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The demand has not improved significantly, and the price increase is expected to be limited [27] - **Methanol, Benzene, Styrene, etc.**: - **Methanol**: The coal price is falling, the cost support is weak, the domestic supply pressure is large, and the import volume is expected to increase. The methanol market is in the off - season, and the inventory is expected to increase [24] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The low - price overseas pure benzene has impacted the far - month price in the East China market, and the cost support for styrene is insufficient. The supply in the East China main port has increased, and the price is under pressure [25] - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, etc.**: - **PX and PTA**: The PX price follows the oil price after valuation repair, and the PTA price is mainly affected by raw materials. The cash flow of polyester filament has improved significantly, and the industry is expected to reach a new balance and fluctuate after profit repair [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The industry profit has improved due to supply - side disturbances such as domestic overhauls and low import arrivals. The demand is expected to remain high, but there is supply pressure in the far - month. The month - spread is expected to fluctuate strongly [29] - **Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip**: - **Short - Fiber**: Under the pressure of high start - up, the processing margin recovers slowly. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the processing margin recovery driven by supply - side changes [30] - **Bottle - Chip**: It is in the peak demand season, the production has continued to increase, the inventory is stable, and the industry processing margin is at a low level. If production cuts are implemented, attention can be paid to the processing margin recovery [30] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, etc.**: - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market lacks a continuous upward driver. The domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant, and the soybean meal production is increasing. The competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the short - term view is bearish [34] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The US soybean oil price is affected by the uncertainty of biodiesel policies, and the price volatility may increase. The palm oil production is in an increasing cycle overseas, and the domestic palm oil is under pressure from increased arrivals. The oil market is expected to fluctuate in a range [35] - **Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil**: The overnight rapeseed futures price fluctuated slightly. The weather premium in the North American oilseed - producing areas and the decline in the US soybean oil price offset each other. The rapeseed meal is expected to be stronger than the rapeseed oil today [36] - **Corn**: The Northeast corn spot price is slightly down, and the Shandong spot price is fluctuating weakly. The market - circulating grain source has increased, the port inventory is at a historical high, and the starch enterprise's start - up rate has decreased. The corn price is expected to fluctuate weakly [38] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell slightly. The domestic cotton import is low, the spot transaction is average, and the pure - cotton yarn market is lacking confidence. The Zhengzhou cotton price is driven by the positive news of Sino - US negotiations, and the inventory may be tight at the end of the season if the negotiations continue to improve. Temporary observation or a bull - spread option strategy is recommended [41] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price fluctuated overnight. The market is concerned about the Brazilian sugar production, and the supply is expected to be relatively bearish. The domestic sugar import has decreased, the sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate [42] - **Apples**: The apple futures price continued to fall. The market demand has decreased, and the cold - storage shipment speed has slowed down. The market is focusing on the new - season apple yield estimate, and temporary observation is recommended [43] - **Wood and Pulp**: - **Wood**: The wood futures price is running weakly. The supply pressure has decreased due to the decrease in the import price and the arrival volume, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound power is insufficient. Temporary observation is recommended [44] - **Pulp**: The pulp price rose slightly yesterday. The downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is high. The recent increase is mainly driven by macro factors, and the sustainability is cautious. Temporary observation or light - position buying on dips is recommended [45] Livestock and Poultry - **Pigs**: The pig futures price hit a new low, and the spot price also decreased significantly. The medium - and long - term supply of pigs is expected to increase, and the spot price is under downward pressure [39] - **Eggs**: The egg spot price fluctuated weakly, and the futures price hit a new low. Attention should be paid to the industry's capacity reduction after the egg - chicken farming losses. The short - term price may stop falling during the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period, but the long - term view is bearish [40] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fluctuated lower yesterday, and the performance of stock - index futures contracts was differentiated. The US tax - cut bill has passed the House of Representatives, and the central bank will conduct MLF operations. The stock - index market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and the style will be more balanced [46] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury - bond futures price continued to fluctuate. The bond market's "technology board" is being promoted, and the short - term market risk preference is stable. The directional strategy is expected to return to shock, and the multi - variety strategy focuses on the steepening of the yield curve [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent weakness in the 20 - year US Treasury auction and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's have led to a decline in the 10 - year US Treasury and the US dollar index. Geopolitical issues in the Middle East and concerns about stagflation from tariffs have provided upward momentum for precious metals [2][4]. - For copper, due to factors such as high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns, the copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation [7][10]. - In the case of alumina, the suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea may narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and the price of alumina is expected to be strong in the short term [14][19][20]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, with ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, along with factors like declining LME inventories and increasing imports, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate [23][26]. - For zinc, as some smelters resume production and downstream demand remains weak, the zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range [28][29]. - In the lead market, the current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement [31][34]. - For nickel, although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, suppressing the upside of the nickel price [36][39][40]. - Stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with short - term support from production cuts and costs, but lacking upward demand drivers [41][42]. - For industrial silicon, with increasing supply and high inventory, the price is under pressure, and short - term short positions are recommended [45][46]. - In the polysilicon market, with production and demand adjustments and ongoing contract delivery contradictions, short - term short positions are still recommended [48][51][52]. - For lithium carbonate, due to weak downstream demand expectations and high inventories, short positions are advisable [54][57]. - In the tin market, with the phased resumption of African tin mines and limited demand improvement, the tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term [59][61]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.76% to $3314.36 per ounce, and London silver rose 0.95% to $33.38 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.92% to 777.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.86% to 8285 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.56% to 99.60, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.587%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.19% to 7.203 [2]. Important资讯 - The US Commerce Secretary hopes to reach trade agreements with major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the market expects two interest rate cuts this year. There are geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the 20 - year US Treasury auction had weak demand [2]. Logic Analysis - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and weak 20 - year US Treasury auctions have led to a decline in the US Treasury and the US dollar index. Fed officials' concerns about tariffs and geopolitical issues in the Middle East have provided upward momentum for precious metals [4]. Trading Strategy - Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. Copper Market Review - The LME copper price fell 0.28% to $9487. LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168,800 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1401 short tons to 173,023 short tons [7]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a winning yield of 5.047%. Peru plans to set up a "mining fund" for small - scale miners. Vicuna expects two copper projects in Argentina to start production in 2030. China's imports of anode copper and electrolytic copper had different trends in April [7][8]. Logic Analysis - US trade negotiations, high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns affect the copper market. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the market may show a back structure in the medium term. Demand remains resilient during the 90 - day tariff suspension [10]. Trading Strategy - The copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures price of alumina 2509 contract rose 1.85% to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in various regions increased [12]. Important资讯 - Bauxite mining in the Guinea AXIS矿区 has been suspended, with an annual capacity of about 40 million tons. The transition authorities in Guinea have designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserves. There was a spot alumina transaction in Guangxi on May 21 [14][15][16]. Logic Analysis - The suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea is likely to narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite. The price of bauxite is expected to rise to $75 - 80. The impact on alumina is more medium - term, and short - term supply and demand may change if alumina production capacities resume [19]. Trading Strategy - The alumina price is expected to be strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract fell 30 yuan per ton to 20,185 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. Important资讯 - EU - US trade negotiations are ongoing. The US 20 - year Treasury auction had an impact on the market. Global primary aluminum production in April was 6.033 million tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot imports reached a record high in April [23][25]. Logic Analysis - With ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, the LME aluminum inventory is decreasing, and aluminum imports are increasing. The aluminum consumption shows an upward trend, and the inventory is at a low level, which may support the price spread [26]. Trading Strategy - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; consider long positions in the 06 - 09 contract spread for arbitrage; wait and see for options [26]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc price fell 1.47% to $2684.5 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan per ton. The spot market had weak downstream demand and a slight decline in the spot premium [28]. Important资讯 - The LME has approved three additional warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The tender price of a zinc mine in North China increased [28][29]. Logic Analysis - As some smelters resume production, supply may increase, while downstream demand remains weak. The zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range, and may decline with inventory accumulation [29]. Trading Strategy - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within a range, and short positions can be lightly tried at high prices for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead price fell 0.28% to $1978.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2507 contract fell 0.33% to 16,835 yuan per ton. The spot market had regional transactions, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs [31]. Important资讯 - China's lead concentrate imports in April decreased 4.3% month - on - month but increased 22.1% year - on - year. Some secondary lead smelters plan to resume production [32][34]. Logic Analysis - The current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement. Short - term macro factors should be monitored [34]. Trading Strategy - No specific trading strategy details provided in the text. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose $100 to $15,630 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201,786 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 400 yuan to 123,760 yuan per ton. Spot premiums had different changes [36]. Important资讯 - Nickel Industries' production and sales data in the first quarter of 2025 are reported. Hong Kong has more LME - approved warehouses. In March 2025, there was a supply surplus of 39,400 tons of refined nickel globally [36][39]. Logic Analysis - Although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, and the improvement in the nickel ore shortage situation will suppress the upside of the nickel price [40]. Trading Strategy - The nickel price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel 2507 fell 5 yuan to 12,870 yuan per ton. Spot prices for cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are reported [42]. Important资讯 - China's stainless steel exports decreased 5% in April, and imports increased 10% [42]. Logic Analysis - There may be a supply shortage of 304 stainless steel, but demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is difficult to digest. The price is expected to oscillate widely, following the nickel price and macro - sentiment [42]. Trading Strategy - The stainless steel price is expected to be slightly strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon main contract fell 1.75% to 7865 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and downstream demand was weak [45]. Important资讯 - The US has launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal [45]. Logic Analysis - With increasing supply and high inventory, the price of industrial silicon is under pressure. Although there is some speculative buying demand below 8000 yuan, the actual supply - demand situation has not improved [46]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading; sell out - of - the - money call options; conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 contracts [46]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon main contract rose 0.93% to 35,860 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [48]. Important资讯 - China's electricity consumption data in April are reported [49]. Logic Analysis - Production and demand of polysilicon and silicon wafers are adjusted in May, and there is an inventory reduction. The spot price is weak, and there is a contradiction between the downward fundamentals and contract delivery. Short - term fluctuations are intense [51]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the PS2507 contract for single - side trading; sell PS2507 - C - 40000 options; wait and see for arbitrage [52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract 2507 rose 240 yuan to 61,100 yuan per ton. SMM - reported spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [54]. Important资讯 - A lithium - salt project in Yiliping has improved lithium recovery, and a lithium - salt enterprise in Jiangxi plans to conduct maintenance [55][57]. Logic Analysis - Downstream demand expectations are weak, and inventories are high. Short positions are advisable until there is a clear signal of overseas mine production cuts [57]. Trading Strategy - Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; hold put ratio options [57]. Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.36% to 266,150 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees were stable. The market had limited actual transactions [59]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a high winning yield [59]. Logic Analysis - The high winning yield of the 20 - year US Treasury bonds has increased risk - aversion sentiment. African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tightness is expected to ease. The tin price is mainly driven by macro factors [61]. Trading Strategy - The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for options [61].

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 5月22日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 780.10 | 1.22% | 307542 | 224049 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，5月22日上海黄金现货价格报价779.8元/克，相较于期货主力价格（778.78元/克）升水1.02 元/克。 亚特兰大联邦储备银行总裁博斯蒂克周二表示，美国企业可能已经耗尽应对更高进口税的策略，无法再 推迟调整价格或雇佣状况，经济可能正处于新一轮价格上涨的边缘。 他目前预计，美联储今年只会进行一次25个基点的降息，之后还需要几个月的时间，特朗普政府政策的 效果才会明朗化。圣路易斯联储总裁穆萨莱姆周二表示，即使近期中美贸易关系缓和，劳动力市场似乎 仍可能走弱，物价将上涨。 不过，如果贸易局势缓和势头持续，美联储当前的货币政策立场可能"仍然合适"。美国总统特朗普推动 的减税法案陷入僵局。 目前，市场关注的焦点是美国众议院计划于本周末进行的一次关键投票。众议院的共和党领导人表示， 尽管税收法 ...

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最新消息面上，据央视新闻，当地时间5月20日，记者获悉，有多名美国官员透露说，美国获取的情报 显示，以色列可能正在准备对伊朗核设施发动打击。 受多重利好刺激，黄金股多数走强。截至早盘收盘，曼卡龙、晓程科技分别上涨12.85%，9.16%。ETF 方面，黄金ETF（518880）早盘大涨2.87%，买卖盘踊跃，半日成交额突破29.19亿。黄金股票ETF （159321）大涨3.03%，换手率超10%。 黄金价格上，5月20日，COMEX黄金期货大幅反弹，收涨1.83%报3292.6美元/盎司。5月21日，COMEX 黄金期货上破3300美元大关。 此外，另据央视新闻，受国际信用评级机构穆迪下调美国主权信用评级影响，美国国债遭遇大规模抛 售。当地时间19日，30年期美国国债收益率飙升，盘中一度突破5%。与此同时，10年期美债收益率19 日盘中突破4.5%。 国元证券表示，受全球地缘冲突、关税政策及美国通胀数据影响，市场避险情绪升温，近期贵金属表现 强劲。海外关税政策对金属市场影响显著，需持续关注政策动态。重点关注黄金等贵金属及战略小金属 的投资机会，这些领域有望在地缘政治和经济不确定性中展现较强韧性。 中国银河表 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that rising geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Israel's potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, resulting in a significant rise in gold prices [1][3]. - On May 20, gold prices surged, with spot gold reaching $3,300, marking the first time since May 9 that it hit this level, driven by heightened market volatility and investor concerns [1][3]. - The gold ETF (518800) saw a substantial increase of over 2.5%, indicating strong trading activity amid the geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 2 - The current market sentiment is influenced by trade negotiations and geopolitical situations, leading to increased volatility in gold prices, but long-term factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising global uncertainties are expected to support gold prices [4]. - The aggressive tariff policies in the U.S. have heightened the risk of "stagflation," which, along with the uncertainty in policies, provides additional support for gold prices [4]. - Central banks, including the People's Bank of China, continue to increase their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 73.77 million ounces as of the end of April, marking a continuous increase for six months [4].

Group 1 - Gold prices surged again, breaking the $3,300 per ounce mark for the first time since May 9, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and a negative GDP growth in the US, which increased safe-haven demand [1] - Since May 19, spot gold has been on the rise, following a significant correction after reaching a historical high before the May Day holiday, with a notable drop of 2.23% on May 14 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a strong performance in gold and jewelry consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 25.3% in April for gold and jewelry, and a 38.6% increase in the average closing price of AU9999 gold [1] Group 2 - CITIC Futures believes that the current adjustment in gold prices is a short-term trend, with a long-term bullish outlook remaining intact, influenced by a combination of rising inflation and economic downturn in the US [2] - According to Founder Securities, while gold prices are currently high, the easing of trade tensions may lead to profit-taking by investors and a slowdown in central bank purchases, potentially causing a short-term price correction [2] - Citigroup has significantly lowered its three-month gold price target from $3,500 to $3,150, indicating a 10% decrease, and predicts that gold prices will oscillate between $3,000 and $3,300 in the near term [4]

风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑，正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于 4 月中旬逐步企 稳反弹，目前已经回补了 4 月 7日的向下跳空缺口，上方正面临着今年一季度高点和去年四季度的成交 密集区的压力，预计继续反弹的阻力将有所增大，建议保持震荡市思维。 首先，中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展，市场风险偏好有所提升。新华社 5 月 11 日晚报道"中美经贸 高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋 商机制。中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节，并将于 5 月 12 日发布会谈达成的联合声明"。周一下午三点， 新华社发布了《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，中美两国同时大幅下调之前加征的关税。中美经贸谈 判的效率和互相减免关税的幅度总体超出投资者预期，市场风险偏好有所上升。当然，4 月中旬以来市 场始终在交易贸易冲突的缓和，要看到市场已经计入一定改善预期。不悲不喜，谨慎应对仍是基本原 则。 其次，沪指高开高收，成交放大。周一，两市高开后一路向上反弹，收盘接近全天最高点。两市量 能在 1.3 万亿 ...