Market Performance - The Japanese and South Korean stock markets performed strongly last week, with energy, technology, and defensive sectors showing varied performance across different markets [1] - The MSCI Global index decreased by 0.3%, with MSCI Developed down by 0.3% and MSCI Emerging remaining flat [1] - International crude oil prices continued to rise, while the German 10Y government bond yield saw the largest increase [1] Trading Sentiment - Global stock market trading volume showed divergence, with increased trading volume in European and American markets, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index saw a decrease in trading volume [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved, reaching historically high levels, while sentiment in the US also rose to historical highs [1] - Volatility decreased in Hong Kong, US, and Japanese markets, while European market volatility increased [1] Earnings Expectations - Global stock market earnings expectations were mostly revised downwards last week, with European stocks showing the best marginal change [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the Hang Seng Index was revised down from 2234 to 2231 for 2025 [2] - The EPS forecast for the Eurozone STOXX50 index was revised up from 345 to 346 for 2025 [2] Economic Expectations - Economic expectations showed mixed changes globally, with the US economy showing signs of weakness and European economic trends improving [2] - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US fell significantly, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and trade negotiation challenges [2] - The Economic Surprise Index for Europe increased slightly due to strong economic data and progress in trade negotiations [2] Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity showed marginal improvement last week, with central banks in the US, Japan, and the UK maintaining interest rates, while Switzerland and Norway cut rates by 25 basis points [3] - The futures market implied a market expectation of 2.1 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [3] - Capital primarily flowed into the US, China, and Japan, with continued inflows into Hong Kong [3]

| 《》》 国资期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月24日 | | 聚丙烯 | 女女女 | 塑料 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | PVC | 女女女 | 烧碱 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PX | なな女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | な女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 瓶片 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | な女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 女女女 纯碱 | | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 日内甲醇盘面大幅下跌,盘中触及跌停。主要受伊以局势有所缓和影响,国际油价大幅下跌, ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 海外与大类周报 证券研究报告 中东地缘冲突如何定价？ 伊以冲突触发中东权力格局重构，全球资产反应呈现历史性钝化 以色列 2025 年 6 月 13 日对伊朗核设施实施"斩首式打击"，引发伊朗直接军 事报复。尽管事件导致原油日内涨幅 7.02%（布伦特收盘 74.23 美元/桶）、黄 金冲高 3%（6 月 13 日 COMEX 黄金 3431.2 美元/盎司），但全球权益市场波 动率及美元指数（单日仅涨 0.27%）均未有大幅波动。相较于 1990 年海湾战 争期间原油波动极差 61.5%、标普 500 回撤 20%，本次资产波动强度显著减弱， 反映金融体系对区域性冲突的适应性进化——定价锚点转向供需基本面（原 油）与实际利率（黄金），边际影响系统性衰减。 原油：地缘溢价衰减与供需新平衡 地缘冲击对油价的边际驱动持续弱化，供给侧调控与季节性需求的博弈成为 新主导。尽管霍尔木兹海峡中断风险推升布伦特原油盘中涨幅超 10%，但价 格较俄乌冲突峰值（127.98 美元/桶）低 42%，印证地缘溢价衰减。历史趋势 明确：1990 年海湾战争波动极差 61.5 个百分点，2023 年巴以冲突收窄至 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry were provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The cotton market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. ICE US cotton rose 1.29% to 67.56 cents/pound on Monday, while CF509 fell 0.3% to 13,465 yuan/ton. Macro - level disturbances persist internationally, and the domestic market is affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices. The current low inventory of domestic old cotton supports prices, but demand - side drivers are weak, and new cotton is expected to have a good harvest. The overall cotton demand remains but is difficult to improve significantly [1] - The sugar market is also expected to continue its oscillatory trend. Pakistan's decision to import 750,000 tons of sugar has pushed up domestic sugar prices. International regional conflicts and crude oil price fluctuations have boosted raw sugar prices. The short - term fundamentals lack news guidance, and the medium - term outlook is for a good harvest. The stable domestic spot price and the basis are currently strong supports for the futures price [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market is affected by geopolitical news and the movement of the US dollar index, while the domestic market is influenced by crude oil prices. The low inventory of old cotton supports prices, but demand is weak, and new cotton is expected to be abundant. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [1] - **Sugar**: Pakistan's import decision has affected domestic prices. International conflicts and crude oil price fluctuations have an impact on raw sugar. The short - term fundamentals lack news, and the medium - term outlook is for a good harvest. The stable domestic spot price and basis support the futures price [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 35, down 15; the main basis is 1429, up 45. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,780 yuan/ton, up 16, and the national spot price is 14,894 yuan/ton, up 15 [2] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 144, up 10; the main basis is 334, down 1. The Nanning spot price is 6050 yuan/ton, up 20, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6055 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 23, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,493, down 39 from the previous trading day, with 300 valid forecasts. The yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.2 to 53.4, and the yarn comprehensive inventory increased by 0.6 to 27.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 49.1, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory remained unchanged at 33.1 [3] - **Sugar**: On June 23, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6050 yuan/ton, up 20, and the Liuzhou price was 6055 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 27,334, down 335 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 4. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: The report presents multiple charts related to cotton, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis, contract spreads, the difference between domestic and foreign prices under a 1% tariff quota, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [6][8][9] - **Sugar**: The report includes charts on the closing price of the main sugar contract, the basis, contract spreads, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15][17] 5. Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, soda - ash glass, and cotton, respectively. They have rich experience and many honors in the industry [19][20][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate; soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly; and ferromanganese is expected to oscillate [6][8][9][10][14][15][17][18]. Core View of the Report - Affected by the news that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, the black building materials sector was strong on Monday. The main reason is that the black sector is in a vacuum period with limited trading drivers. The overall supply and demand of the industry have strengthened month - on - month, with no pressure on inventory, but the market's outlook for future demand remains pessimistic, and the market is in an oscillatory consolidation stage [1][2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are expected to remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals have increased seasonally, and port inventories have slightly increased. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventories, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Focus on the profitability and maintenance plans of steel enterprises [2]. Carbon Element - Recently, environmental and safety inspections in major production areas have become stricter, resulting in a continuous decline in coking coal production, but the overall supply contraction is limited. In terms of imports, the enthusiasm of traders for hauling is weak, and port clearance remains at a low level. On the demand side, coke production has declined from its high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprises' operations. In terms of inventory, the rigid demand for coking coal has declined, and the overall amount of downstream raw material replenishment demand is limited. The upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, and the structural inventory problem has not improved significantly. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, increasing the difficulty of downstream procurement bargaining. Some factories have plans to resume production, and a new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in Inner Mongolia in the second half of the month, so ferromanganese production may continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and the market sentiment for manganese ore has improved. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are poor, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average, and the terminal steel demand is about to enter the off - season. The downstream has a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and prices lack the impetus to rise [3]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken month - on - month, and the upstream inventory has accumulated, with off - season pressure still existing, although the sales in Shahe have slightly improved. On the supply side, a 1000 - ton production line has started producing glass, a 700 - ton production line has been cold - repaired, and four more production lines are waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure remains. The actual demand in the off - season faces certain pressure, the market price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price, and there are many emotional disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. As maintenance gradually resumes, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will continue to decline in the long term [6]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: This week, the overall supply and demand have strengthened month - on - month, but inventory is still being reduced. The main factor suppressing the market price is the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that the price will oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the price of finished products is under pressure. Electric furnaces are operating at a loss during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9]. - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market's expectation of price stability has increased, but there are still differences in views on the future. The coke enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is insufficient. There is downward pressure on coke prices in the medium term [10][11][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The market supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the high upstream inventory restricts the price increase. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly and stably [14]. - **Silicon Manganese**: There is an expectation of increased production, and the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, so the supply and demand tend to be loose. However, due to cost - price inversion, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices. There is an expectation of increased production from some manufacturers, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the short term [18].

Core Insights - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum (New Champions Annual Meeting) is being held in Tianjin, highlighting global economic uncertainties and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on market confidence and inflation [2] Economic Performance - China's economy is currently performing steadily, with GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in Q2, indicating a generally positive economic outlook for the first half of the year [2] - Strong performance in exports and industrial production in recent quarters reflects the resilience of the economy, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [2] Fiscal Policy Discussion - There is a need to differentiate between short-term and long-term fiscal policy objectives, with long-term fiscal health being crucial to avoid sustainability issues [3] - In response to external uncertainties that may slow economic growth, it is recommended to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy to create space for further economic stabilization [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Israel - Iran cease - fire news. Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as the geopolitical risk premium fades. Different energy and chemical products will gradually return to fundamental - driven pricing, with varying trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][2]. - For most products, short - term market trends are influenced by geopolitical factors, and mid - to long - term trends are determined by supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and cost factors. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 closed at $68.51, down $5.33 (-7.22%); Brent2508 closed at $71.48, down $5.53 (-7.18%); SC2508 closed at 537.7 yuan/barrel after night trading [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market prices in response to the cooling of geopolitical conflicts. If geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil will return to fundamental pricing, with short - term trading on third - quarter peak - season expectations and long - term trading on the contradiction of increased supply - demand surplus under OPEC+ continuous production increases. The expected trading range for Brent in the third quarter is $60 - 72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, with Brent trading in the range of $66 - 72 per barrel. Pay attention to the certainty of the Middle - East cease - fire [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3737 points (-1.16%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3574 points (-1.27%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the sharp drop in oil prices, the upward cost - driven factor for asphalt disappeared. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and inventory is lower than the same period. The price of the BU main contract is expected to range from 3600 to 3750 [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak and volatile. The spread between asphalt and crude oil will rebound [5]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4538 (-0.42%) at night; PG2508 closed at 4522 (-0.18%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in oil prices, the supply of LPG decreased slightly last week, and the international shipping volume decreased. The combustion - end demand is expected to be weak, while the chemical - sector demand is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price is expected to decline [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of LPG is expected to be weak [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 3341 (-0.83%) at night; LU08 closed at 3988 (-0.05%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil trading remains active, with high - sulfur cracking supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power - generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported, while low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be observed for further trends [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Consider taking profit on the positive spread of FU9 - 1 [11]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas inventory accumulation was lower than expected. Production increased slightly, demand was at a historical high, and LNG export volume was 14.2 bcf/d. European natural gas prices decreased due to the cease - fire news. The price of natural gas is expected to rise [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at dips and be bullish on TTF [13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 7076 (-0.70%) at night. Spot prices increased, and PXN was $264/ton, up $8/ton [13][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Many PX plants have maintenance plans or production cuts, and the Asian PX operating rate has declined recently, resulting in tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4986 (-0.52%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some PTA plants have reduced production or shut down, and the operating rate has decreased. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but profits have been compressed. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [15][16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4454 (-1.04%) at night. Spot basis and prices changed [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic and foreign plants have restarted or increased production, and the operating rate has increased significantly. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but terminal demand has weakened. The supply - demand pattern in June and July is still tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [17][18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6796 (-0.44%) at night. Spot prices increased, but downstream was mostly waiting and watching [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply has increased and demand has decreased recently, but production and sales are stable, and processing fees have increased. Some large factories have tight supply, and processing fees are expected to be strongly supported. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Short PTA and long PF for spreads [19][20]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 6172 (-0.58%) at night. Spot market trading was okay [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some bottle - chip plants have increased production, and inventory has risen. Some plants have plans to reduce production or shut down. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [20][21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 closed at 7486 (-1.28%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure - benzene prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply has increased, and downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low. The price is mainly guided by cost factors and is expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fluctuated, and PP prices were relatively stable [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: Previous price increases were affected by Middle - East geopolitics. After the cease - fire news, oil prices dropped, and plastic PP is expected to open lower. In the medium term, supply - demand is expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Open lower. Short - sell on rallies, paying attention to the certainty of the cease - fire and oil prices [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Market Review**: PVC prices were slightly adjusted, and trading was light [27]. - **PVC Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still dragged down by the real - estate market. The medium - to long - term supply - demand is in surplus, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [29]. - **Caustic Soda Logic Analysis**: The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be weak. Demand is expected to have no significant increase in the medium term, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell caustic soda and PVC. Hold the 8 - 10 reverse spread for caustic soda [31][32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass 09 contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton (+0.20%) at night. Spot prices changed slightly [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda - ash 09 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton (-0.3%) at night. Spot prices fluctuated slightly [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Inventory has increased, and costs have decreased. A short - selling strategy is recommended [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell soda ash. Sell out - of - the - money call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1711 (-2%). Spot prices declined, and trading was weak [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is declining. International prices are strong, and export orders have increased, but the market is still expected to be weak in the short term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options on rebounds [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2469 (-1.71%). Spot prices in different regions varied [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply has tightened, but domestic supply is loose. Downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the short term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options [39]. Logs - **Market Review**: Log prices in some regions increased slightly, and the main contract price rose [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the market faces challenges in the medium - to long - term. The futures market is supported by delivery rules. [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [42]. Double - Coated Paper - **Market Review**: The double - coated paper market was stable with some declines. Trading was general [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Industry profitability is low, production has decreased, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is weak, and pulp prices provide limited support [43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices declined slightly, and trading was weak [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may be reduced, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period [45]. Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures declined. Spot prices of different types of pulp changed [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic paper production has increased, and Taiwan's paper production has declined. The price of the SP main contract is expected to be affected negatively [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP 09 contract. Hold the 5*SP2509 - 2*NR2509 spread [47]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09 closed at 13835 (-0.82%); NR08 closed at 12020 (+0.08%). Spot prices of different types of rubber changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Vietnam's rubber industry faces challenges from EU regulations. Domestic inventory shows different trends. [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the RU09 contract. Hold short positions on the NR08 contract. Adjust stop - loss levels [50]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR08 closed at 11440 (-0.13%). Spot prices of butadiene rubber and related products changed [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene rubber inventory is increasing. Some tire projects are being invested [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell a small amount of the BR08 contract. Hold the BR2508 - NR2508 spread. Sell the BR2508 call 12200 contract [52][53].

周二(6月24日)亚市盘中，伦敦金价格下跌，目前交投报3352.13美元/盎司，跌幅0.60%，今日金价开盘于3368.34美元/盎司，最高上探3370.56美元/盎司，最 低触及3332.95美元/盎司。 消息面解读：美国总统特朗普北京时间周二6:02(美东时间周一下午06:02)在社交媒体上发文称：以色列与伊朗已完全达成共识，将实施全面彻底的停火(约 6 小时后启动，届时以伊双方将结束并完成正在进行的最后任务！)。停火期为 12 小时，此后这场战争将被视作结束！正式流程为：伊朗先启动停火，第 12 小时以色列启动停火，第 24 小时，这场持续 12 天的战争将正式宣告终结，并获世界致意。每段停火期间，另一方将保持和平与尊重。 黄金走势分析：市场情绪当前犹如惊弓之鸟，完全受控于消息面的风吹草动。在周评中，我们就着重提及了影响市场的两大关键消息面因素：其一，伊朗与 以色列之间的地缘冲突，局势紧张程度不断攀升，犹如高悬的达摩克利斯之剑，时刻牵动着投资者的心弦；其二，美联储内部在货币政策上出现了明显分 歧，主席秉持鹰派立场，坚决不降息，而特朗普提拔的副主席以及部分理事却倾向鸽派，呼吁降息，这种内部的意见不合让市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the methanol industry. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short - term, with the confirmation of a cease - fire agreement between the US and Israel mediated by Qatar by Iranian senior officials, the geopolitical conflict has eased, leading to a significant decline in international oil prices. It is expected that methanol will operate weakly under the condition of high valuation [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,504 yuan/ton, down 25 from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,512 yuan/ton, down 26; the trading volume was 2,496,954 lots, the open interest was 993,459 lots, an increase of 108,755; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,867 tons, a decrease of 58; the trading volume was 6,272,504 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 1,189,303. The Ganglian basis was 221, down 1, and the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was 12, down 6 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,015 yuan/ton, up 5; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,055 yuan/ton, up 20; the Shandong price was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2,227.59, up 14.71. Among them, the Taicang spot price was 2,740, down 10, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2,232.5, up 32.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 10 cities saw varying degrees of decline, with a decline range of 5 - 35 yuan/ton. The northwest methanol market rose slightly today. Although the futures market fluctuated and declined, the spot market atmosphere was good. Some enterprises in the region had active auction transactions and slightly premium transactions, and the market trading atmosphere significantly recovered. Currently, the long - term end - of - month delivery is nearing completion, and most of the previous low - price contracts have been executed, so some buyers are actively replenishing their stocks. Due to the unclear geopolitical situation in the Middle East, most market participants are bullish, and some holders are mainly cautious and reluctant to sell [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is - 1, indicating a weak downward trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

近期中东局势急剧升温,美军空袭伊朗核设施、伊朗议会表决关闭霍尔木兹海峡,全球金融市场神经紧绷, 地缘冲突通常是推动黄金飙升的经典催化剂,然而这一次,金价却罕见保持沉默。与此同时,铂金却强势上 涨,引发投资者对贵金属市场分化逻辑的高度关注,在全球宏观变量剧烈变动之际,黄金是否正处于酝酿拐 点的临界点?而美国深度"下场",是否也在重新定义国际避险资产的价值逻辑? 与以往局部冲突不同,本轮中东紧张局势出现"质变"信号——美国已直接卷入,这一动作不仅重新定义了 地缘风险,也深刻影响了全球资本的流向,美国经济面临结构性挑战。通胀顽固不下,增长动能减弱,财政赤 字持续扩大,市场对美债的信心正在动摇,评级机构的负面预警、美债收益率的剧烈波动,均是资金对美债 信用"打折"的体现。 美元虽在初期受避险需求走强,但从中期看,美联储若释放鸽派信号,美元将承压下行,黄金因此具备结构性 上行基础。大量避险与实物配置资金,已悄然流出美元资产,流向黄金等硬资产,因此美国下场,不仅是军事 参与,更是全球金融定价权的一次再校准。黄金作为"无主权信用资产",将在这种信用裂变中迎来重估,尤 其在美国经济拐点真正确立之后,金价有望进入新一轮上涨通道 ...