Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][14] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][19] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][23] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1][27] - PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3][31] - Ethylene glycol: Short on rebounds [3][34] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3][37] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3][42] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7][54] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7][58] Report's Core Views - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is easing, and the crude oil market is in an oversupply situation during the off - season, leading to downward pressure on oil prices [1][11] - The price of LPG is dragged down by the cost of crude oil, and the supply - demand situation shows that the refinery's production is increasing, and there is inventory pressure [1][17] - For L, the basis is weakening, the supply is sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural film market is declining, with inventory removal pressure [1][22] - PP needs to pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices, and the industry chain faces high inventory removal pressure [1][26] - PVC has an oversupply contradiction before concentrated maintenance in the upstream and mid - stream, but the cost of raw materials is falling [1][30] - PTA has a relatively tight short - term supply - demand balance, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in January, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [3][32] - Ethylene glycol has a short - term supply improvement, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [3][35] - Methanol's port inventory is decreasing, but the fundamental situation remains weak, with supply pressure and weakening demand [3][39] - Urea has a relatively loose domestic fundamental situation, with high supply and limited demand sustainability, and attention should be paid to exports [3][43] - The price of natural gas has reached a high level, with increasing upward pressure, and the supply and demand situation is affected by geopolitics and seasonal factors [6] - Asphalt's price is affected by the weakening of crude oil cost and the supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in South America [7][52] - Glass has a situation of weak supply reduction and weak demand, and the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream is still high [7][57] - Soda ash has a loose supply pattern, with high inventory and insufficient demand support [7][61] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices weakened, with WTI down 1.34%, Brent down 0.92%, and SC down 0.30% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical support for oil prices is decreasing, and the off - season supply is in excess, with global and US crude oil inventories increasing [11] - **Fundamentals**: Russia's oil production increased slightly in November, and the IEA expects global crude oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil and product inventories have different trends [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - and long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the price is in a low - price range. Short - term trends are weak, and partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended [13] LPG - **Market Review**: On December 15, the PG main contract closed at 4152 yuan/ton, up 0.58% month - on - month [16] - **Basic Logic**: The price is linked to crude oil, with cost - side negatives. Supply is increasing, and there is inventory pressure [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - and long - term, the price has room for compression. Short positions should be held, and attention should be paid to the range of [4150 - 4250] [18] L - **Market Review**: The prices of L contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [20] - **Basic Logic**: The basis is weakening, supply is sufficient, and there is inventory removal pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions, and wait for rebounds to short. Pay attention to the range of [6500 - 6650] [22] PP - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [24] - **Basic Logic**: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics, and the industry chain faces high inventory removal pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions, and wait for rebounds to short. Consider going long on PP processing fees or shorting MTO05. Pay attention to the range of [6200 - 6350] [26] PVC - **Market Review**: The prices of PVC contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [28] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of raw materials is falling, but the oversupply contradiction persists before concentrated maintenance [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4400] [30] PTA - **Market Review**: The prices of PTA contracts decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [31] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is relieved due to high - intensity maintenance, but downstream demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on TA05 at low levels. Pay attention to the range of [4650 - 4710] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The prices of ethylene glycol contracts had different trends, with changes in trading volume and open interest [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are decreasing, demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3580 - 3650] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided - **Basic Logic**: The port inventory is decreasing, but the supply pressure remains, and the demand is slightly weakening [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract is changing hands, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to MA05 [41] Urea - **Market Review**: The prices of urea contracts decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is relatively sufficient, the demand is short - term good but not sustainable, and the inventory is still at a high level [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously short, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on UR05. Pay attention to the range of [1635 - 1655] [45] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On December 15, the NG main contract closed at 4.113 dollars/million British thermal units, down 2.79% month - on - month [48] - **Basic Logic**: The demand is in the peak season, but the price has reached a high level, and the supply is relatively sufficient [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand has support, but the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of [3.860 - 4.239] [49] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On December 15, the BU main contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 0.37% month - on - month [51] - **Basic Logic**: The price is affected by the weakening of crude oil cost and the supply - demand situation [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on short positions due to the uncertainty in South America. Pay attention to the range of [2850 - 2950] [53] Glass - **Market Review**: The prices of glass contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [55] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is difficult to shrink significantly, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream is still high [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short in the short term and wait for rebounds to short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [930 - 980] [57] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The prices of soda ash contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [59] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is loose, the demand support is insufficient, and the inventory is still at a high level [61] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short in the short term and wait for rebounds to short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [1080 - 1130] [61]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that PP will continue to perform weakly. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Although the PDH profit is at a new low, the upstream has locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales, so the willingness to cut production is not strong. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss PDH profit [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6254, with a daily increase of 2.04%. The trading volume was 806,493, and the open interest changed by 193,360. The 01 - contract basis was - 154 (compared to - 49 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 76 (compared to - 39 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6040 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, and 6230 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market rebounded slightly, some coal - chemical plant prices were raised, and the cost support for goods strengthened. Some wire drawing offers from traders increased slightly, while most non - standard prices remained stable. The daily trading volume improved partially [1]. - Some PDH devices are planned to shut down in January, but the scale is not large for now. The year - end demand lacks elasticity, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited under the continuous decline, putting pressure on the basis. The PP US dollar market prices partially declined, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China is low, and downstream procurement remains based on rigid demand with difficult trading improvement [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost**: Crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support for the PP cost side. Sentiment was slightly repaired on Friday night due to approaching position limits and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's mention of resisting "involution - style" competition [2]. - **Supply**: There will be no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand [2]. - **Demand**: Downstream new orders are weakening, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, resulting in weak demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's apparent oil demand in November increased by 4.53% year - on - year, and from January to November, it increased by 3.32% year - on - year. However, global supply growth far exceeds demand, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil has declined. The chemical industry is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, with investors advised to adopt a weak and volatile mindset [2][3]. - The energy - chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics being slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Inventory is continuously rising, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical premiums are constantly fluctuating due to the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela. OPEC +'s output trend is not obvious after a significant slowdown in the net quota growth rate in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Recently, oil prices have returned to near previous lows due to continuous inventory build - up and the decline of geopolitical premiums [8]. - **Outlook**: The expected oversupply pattern in the fundamentals continues, and geopolitical expectations may still fluctuate. It should be viewed as volatile [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The spot market is weak, and the asphalt futures price rose and then fell. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Oil prices fell from high levels, and the situation between the US and Venezuela has heated up again. The asphalt futures price rose and then fell, and the market is concerned about the progress of the US - Venezuela situation. After the futures pricing returns to the Shandong spot price, attention should be paid to the changes in the Shandong spot price [10]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price fell with the decline of oil prices. The demand outlook for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates weakly following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil to fluctuate weakly. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure has increased significantly, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply has unexpectedly decreased [13]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and the lack of demand space for high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low and it fluctuates with crude oil. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The unloading at coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply and demand in the inland areas provide support. Methanol fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The inland market has regional differences, and the port social inventory is in the digestion stage. The inland enterprise inventory at a low level supports the price. The shipping situation in the Middle East has slowed down, and the unloading in coastal areas is likely to be less than expected, but the overall inventory pressure still exists [30]. - **Outlook**: It should be viewed as a short - term fluctuation and consolidation. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: The demand support is insufficient, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level on the supply side, and the support from factors such as off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export has weakened on the demand side. The market trading atmosphere has weakened, and some enterprises have lowered their quotes [31]. - **Outlook**: There is a lack of effective stimulating factors in the market, and the market sentiment is in a stalemate. The short - term market will maintain a weak and stable situation. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The industry reduces production to resist, and the supply - demand structure has improved, but market expectations dominate reality. - **Main Logic**: The price of ethylene glycol rose and then fell. Although the supply - demand structure has improved slightly due to production reduction, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The short - term market is difficult to reverse the weakness, and the rebound space is limited [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price may bottom out under industry resistance, but the long - term inventory build - up pressure is still large, and the price will maintain a wide - range volatile operation at a low level. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: Due to the poor performance of costs in the short term, the increase is hindered. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has strengthened, and international oil prices and naphtha prices have fallen. Although the market has a strong overall expectation for PX, the increase is hindered due to the poor short - term cost performance. The PTA market has good negotiations, which supports the benefits of upstream PX [14][15]. - **Outlook**: PX will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. It is expected that PXN will be sorted out in the range of [260, 300]. PX maintains a positive spread logic. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains strong. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is average, and PX's good supply - demand expectations prevent the cost from being further transmitted to the downstream. PTA's short - term supply and demand are stable, the basis is strong, and the near - month supply and demand are generally tight. The polyester load remains high, and some polyester factories make appropriate replenishments, resulting in good negotiations [15][16]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate following the cost, and the processing fee will maintain range operation with limited expansion space. In the medium term, the TA05 contract can be bought on dips in the 4600 - 4700 range. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The cost support is acceptable, but the demand is average. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is acceptable recently, and the price of polyester short - fiber fluctuates upward following the cost. The demand is in the off - season and is gradually weakening. Currently, the inventory pressure of short - fiber is not large, and it generally fluctuates with raw materials [26][27]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will fluctuate with the upstream, and the support for the processing fee below is strengthened. The long - TA and short - PF positions should stop profit and leave the market. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: The trading atmosphere declined after concentrated replenishment. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuated and rebounded, providing certain cost support for polyester bottle - chips. After concentrated replenishment last week, the price of bottle - chips rose slightly, and the trading atmosphere declined. The short - term price mainly follows the raw materials for sorting [28]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee below is strengthened. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and there is an expectation of PDH production reduction. PL rebounds cautiously. - **Main Logic**: The PDH production reduction expectation still provides some support. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the quotes are generally stable. The downstream buying is cautious, and the actual transaction premium is rare. The short - term powder profit is still under pressure, and the low - start - up situation still has a drag [35]. - **Outlook**: PL will fluctuate in the short term. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: Supported by the expectation of PDH production reduction, PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under short - term pressure, and the valuation support for gas - based production has increased. Oil prices are fluctuating, and geopolitical premiums are constantly fluctuating. The supply - demand pattern of PP is still under pressure, and the downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing mentality [34][35]. - **Outlook**: PP will fluctuate in the short term. 3.1.14 Plastic (LLDPE) - **View**: The trading volume has increased, but the support from maintenance is limited. Plastic fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the futures price has rebounded, mainly driven by PP. Oil prices are fluctuating, and the geopolitical premium is constantly fluctuating. The fundamental support for plastic itself is still limited, and the supply reduction expectation is weaker than that of PP. The demand for plastic is gradually entering the off - season, and the sustainability of the price increase is still questionable [34]. - **Outlook**: It will be weakly volatile in the short term. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and styrene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the support from crude oil and the cost side is insufficient, which drags down the styrene price. The supply - demand of styrene itself is in a tight - balance state, which provides support for the price, but there is insufficient upward driving force. There is an expectation of further inventory reduction in December, but the release of liquidity will suppress the upside. Seasonal inventory build - up will start in January [21][22]. - **Outlook**: It will be slightly stronger and volatile. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: The expectation of oversupply still exists, and PVC fluctuates at a low level. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the boost from the "anti - involution" sentiment to low - valuation varieties may be short - term. At the micro level, the scale of production reduction of marginal enterprises is limited, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply expectation. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the export order - signing is light [38]. - **Outlook**: Although the production reduction of marginal enterprises is small, the profit of PVC is poor, and the market will mainly wait and see, with cautious downward space. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda may fluctuate weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the boost from the "anti - involution" sentiment to low - valuation varieties may be short - term. At the micro level, the decline in liquid chlorine prices has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and there is an expectation of production reduction, but the actual production reduction has not been implemented. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the profit is poor [40]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are under pressure, but the profit is poor. The market will mainly wait and see, with cautious downward space. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Data on cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is given, including the latest values, change values, and the number of warehouse receipts [43]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Data on cross - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented, including the latest values and change values [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring There is no specific content provided in the text for further summary. 3.3 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures is 2258.84, with an increase of 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2585.31, with no change; the industrial product index is 2184.69, with an increase of 0.24%; the PPI commodity index is 1354.37, with a decrease of 0.35% [284]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 15, 2025, is 1093.87, with a daily increase of 0.69%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.53%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.93%, and a year - to - date decrease of 10.92% [285].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-16 政策扰动不断，盘⾯低位反弹 商务部、海关总署公布钢材出⼝管理新规，钢材出⼝预期转弱，但国 资委强调中央企业⾃觉抵制"内卷式"竞争，盘⾯低开⾼⾛。淡季深 ⼊需求转弱，螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基本⾯难 ⾔亮点，预计盘⾯表现承压。冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿下⽅仍有⽀ 撑，下游补库⽀撑煤焦估值有望修复，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅ 空间。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本支撑虽较弱，但焦钢企业将逐渐开启原料 冬储补库，基本面矛盾不大，当前盘面估值过低，继续大幅下行驱动 不足，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关将近，冬储逐步开启，焦煤 现货成交有望改善，基本面及市场情绪将逐渐修复，届时盘面估值或 将向上修复。 3. 合金方面：成本暂居高位对价格形成支撑，但市场供需宽松状态 难改、成本向下传导不畅、盘面上涨驱动不足，预计锰硅期价仍将跟 随板块的表现、以低位震荡运行为主。成本仍处高位支撑硅铁价格底 部，但市场供需双弱、去库难度仍存，需谨慎看待盘面的上方空间， 预计硅铁期价跟随板块低位震荡运行。 4. 玻璃纯碱：供应仍有扰动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export - price support willingness [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. With improved demand and expected seasonal decline in supply, the overall supply - demand situation has improved. There is support from export policies and costs, and it's recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term operations and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profits, but high supply and weak domestic demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It's possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [19]. - For polyethylene, the price of crude oil may have bottomed out, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It's recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is expected to improve but the inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 0.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.09% decline, at 436.50 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels, diesel increased by 0.34 million barrels, fuel oil increased by 0.69 million barrels, naphtha decreased by 0.32 million barrels, and aviation kerosene increased by 0.74 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 1.22 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy View**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, and Inner Mongolia decreased, while those in Henan and Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2074 yuan/ton, with a basis of +31. MTO profit was 32 yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. The port inventory will continue to decline, but there is still pressure in the future. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shanxi decreased, while those in Shandong and Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 4 yuan/ton to 1629 yuan/ton, with a basis of 61 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View**: The market is oscillating higher. With improved demand and expected seasonal decline in supply, the overall supply - demand situation has improved. There is support from export policies and costs, and it's recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated. Exchange RU inventory warrants were low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. As of December 12, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased, and that of semi - steel tires decreased. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased [11]. - **Strategy View**: A neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term operations and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 95 yuan to 4315 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 increased by 80 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.4%, a 0.5% decline. The downstream operating rate was 48.9%, a 0.2% decline. Factory inventory increased by 1.8 tons, and social inventory remained unchanged [14]. - **Strategy View**: The industry has low comprehensive profits, but high supply and weak domestic demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price also remained unchanged. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, and the futures price rose. Upstream operating rate decreased, and Jiangsu port inventory increased. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It's possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract rose 71 yuan/ton to 6557 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the basis weakened. Upstream operating rate decreased slightly. Production enterprise inventory increased, and trader inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased [21]. - **Strategy View**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It's recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract rose 125 yuan/ton to 6254 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the basis weakened. Upstream operating rate increased. Production enterprise and trader inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [24]. - **Strategy View**: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract rose 24 yuan to 6810 yuan. PX CFR rose 2 dollars. China's PX load decreased slightly, and Asia's increased slightly. Some overseas devices restarted, and some were under maintenance. PTA load remained unchanged, and some devices were under maintenance. Import volume decreased year - on - year, and inventory increased month - on - month [27]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose 14 yuan to 4628 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 10 yuan. PTA load remained unchanged, and some devices were under maintenance. The downstream load decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly. The spot and futures processing fees decreased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to increase and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose 24 yuan to 3651 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 43 yuan. The supply - side load decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance. The downstream load decreased. The import arrival forecast was 15.5 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.5 tons [32]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to improve but the inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance [33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock index, bullish on treasury bonds [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Aluminum - high - level wide - range shock; Alumina - weak fundamentals, limited upward drive; Zinc - expected to be shock - strong; Nickel - shock - weak; Stainless steel - shock; Tin - bullish in the long - term; Gold - shock in the short - term, upward space in the long - term; Silver - wide - range shock in the short - term; Platinum - shock - strong in the short - term, long - term long - position allocation; Palladium - shock in the short - term; Industrial silicon - bearish; Polysilicon - shock; Lithium carbonate - affected by multiple factors, facing pressure at 100,000 yuan [1] - **Black Metals**: Rebar - shock; Hot - rolled coil - shock; Iron ore - shock; Manganese silicon - shock; Silicomanganese - shock; Glass - price fluctuates strongly; Soda ash - shock; Coke - shock; Coking coal - shock [1] - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil - wait - and - see; Rapeseed oil - expected to rebound; Cotton - "supported, no drive" in the short - term; Sugar - bearish consensus, cost - supported below; Corn - limited short - term decline; Imported soybeans - shock, different expectations for different contracts; Pulp - wait - and - see for single - side, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread; Logs - shock - weak [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Fuel oil - bearish; Bitumen - affected by multiple factors; Natural rubber - supported by raw material cost; BR rubber - shock, pay attention to export; PTA - affected by multiple factors; Ethylene glycol - price decline; Short - fiber - follow cost; Styrene - narrow - range shock; PP - limited upward space; PE - shock; Urea - shock; Propylene - shock; PVC - bearish; Caustic soda - affected by multiple factors; LPG - shock [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, be vigilant against the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the policy implementation of the central economic work conference, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - Different non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and overseas policies, showing different price trends [1] - Black metals are affected by factors such as macro - drive, supply - demand relationship, and inventory, with prices mainly in a shock state [1] - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and weather, and their prices show different trends and need to pay attention to different influencing factors [1] - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, with complex price trends [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: In the short term, be vigilant against post - policy adjustment, but in the long term, the market adjustment since mid - November provides a layout window. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and winning probabilities [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space. Pay attention to low - level layout opportunities for long positions [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range shock due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating risk preference [1] - **Alumina**: Domestic production and inventory are increasing, with a weak fundamental pattern. Although some short - positions leave the market and the price rebounds, the upward drive is limited [1] - **Zinc**: After the short - term digestion of macro - benefits, the fundamentals improve, the cost center moves up, and it is expected to be shock - strong in the short term. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and domestic policies [1] - **Nickel**: Affected by factors such as overseas policies and high global inventory, the price may be shock - weak in the short term. The long - term pattern of primary nickel is one of surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by factors such as raw - material prices, inventory, and production reduction of steel mills, the futures price fluctuates. Short - term operation is recommended, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1] - **Tin**: Bullish in the long - term due to the tense situation in the Congo. Pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities during corrections [1] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a shock state in the short - term, while platinum has upward potential in the short - term and long - term long - position allocation is recommended. The "long - platinum, short - palladium" arbitrage strategy can be continued [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest and decreased production in the southwest, as well as reduced production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: In the medium - long term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation increases marginally, and large manufacturers have strong price - support and low delivery willingness. The number of delivery brands increases [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the peak season of new - energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, increased supply - side resumption, and pressure at the 100,000 - yuan level [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: In December, macro - drive strengthens, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market. Do not chase high for single - side positions [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - month has upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1] - **Manganese Silicon and Silicomanganese**: Direct demand weakens, supply is high, and inventory accumulates, putting pressure on prices [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply - demand provides support, and the valuation is low. However, short - term sentiment dominates, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream restocking may start around mid - December. Single - side positions should be treated with a short - term approach, and long - term positions should wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the MPOB report and German policies, wait - and - see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Expected to rebound due to the news of returned imported non - genetically modified rapeseed oil [1] - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it is "supported, no drive". Pay attention to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The bearish consensus is strong, and pay attention to the cost support below [1] - **Corn**: Short - term decline is limited, and pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and inventory changes [1] - **Imported Soybeans**: Domestic auction results are positive for near - month and positive - spread positions. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak [1] - **Pulp**: Affected by "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations, single - side wait - and - see, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread for month - spread [1] - **Logs**: Affected by external quotes and spot - price declines, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to be shock - weak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1] - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Supported by raw - material cost, the basis is low, and the mid - stream inventory may return to the accumulation trend [1] - **BR Rubber**: Transaction improves, but high -开工 and high - inventory are still pressures. Pay attention to synthetic - rubber exports [1] - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber**: Affected by factors such as gasoline cracking profit, PX cost, and new - device production [1] - **Styrene**: Mainly in a narrow - range shock, affected by export discussions and polymer - market sales [1] - **PP, PE**: Limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, with support below [1] - **Urea**: High - level operation of production, increased supply, and weak downstream demand [2] - **Propylene**: High - level cost support, but downstream improvement is less than expected [2] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases, and demand weakens [2] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as alumina production, production load, and inventory [2] - **LPG**: International oil and gas return to the fundamental - relaxation logic, and the price is in a range - shock state [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 2025年12月15日 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.5万吨，环比增长4.17%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1359元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.68%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.31万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为188元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为624.45元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，还比减少2.76%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The energy and chemical market is generally under pressure. Crude oil and asphalt markets face supply - demand imbalances with potential mid - term downward risks. Polyester, short - fiber, and related products are affected by seasonal demand weakness and cost factors. Polyolefins are in a supply - surplus and demand - weak pattern, while纯碱 remains in a state of oversupply. Paper pulp lacks a clear trend due to supply - demand mismatches [7][31][85][124][143] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices declined. The US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers affected the market sentiment, but the impact on total supply was limited. The 4Q supply surplus deepened, and the market inventory accumulation accelerated [7] - **Fundamental Changes**: IEA and EIA adjusted supply and demand expectations. IEA slightly lowered the global crude oil supply growth rate, while EIA made different adjustments for 2025 and 2026. Demand growth was mainly driven by non - OECD countries, especially China. The inventory accumulation rate in 4Q 2025 and 1Q 2026 increased after the December report adjustment [9][10] - **Outlook**: Short - term market has no clear driver, mainly trading on news. Mid - term, there are still downward risks [7] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices showed some declines. The cost was affected by the situation of Venezuelan oil, and the supply and demand were both weak. The overall market was in a state of shock [30] - **Fundamental Changes**: Cost was influenced by the Venezuelan oil situation. Supply side: the overall开工 rate increased slightly, but regional differences existed. Demand was affected by cold weather and seasonality, and the inventory of factories and social warehouses decreased. The production profit increased slightly [32][33][34] - **Outlook**: The oil price has no strong support, and the asphalt market is expected to continue to fluctuate [31] Polyester - **Market Review**: PTA prices were affected by crude oil and inventory expectations. Ethylene glycol faced supply - demand pressure and weakening spot support [57] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption was expected to be stable in the short - term but would weaken gradually. PTA was expected to have a slight price increase due to potential new polyester capacity. Ethylene glycol was expected to maintain a weak trend due to supply - demand imbalance and market caution [59][60][62] - **Outlook**: PTA was expected to have a slight price increase, while ethylene glycol was expected to be weak [58] Short - fiber - **Market Review**: Last week, the price of polyester short - fiber declined due to cost and supply - demand factors. This week, it is expected to be slightly warmer due to cost support [67] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption support was weakening. Short - fiber production was expected to be stable, with relatively loose supply and weakening demand [68][69] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester short - fiber is expected to be slightly warmer [67] Polyolefins - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined. The market was in a state of supply surplus and demand weakness [84] - **Fundamental Changes**: The impact of plant maintenance on supply decreased, and the supply pressure increased. The demand was weak, with most PE downstream loads declining and PP开工 remaining stable. Production profits varied by raw material type, and inventory management faced challenges [85][92][99] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market is expected to continue to operate weakly at the bottom, with attention to support levels [85] 纯碱 - **Market Review**: The price of the main 纯碱 contract declined, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. The inventory decreased significantly [119] - **Market Situation**: Supply: production and开工 rate increased. Inventory: the decrease was not sustainable due to weak demand. Spot price: remained stable in a narrow range. Downstream: the demand for 纯碱 from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak [125][131][137] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is taken [124] Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The price of the paper pulp contract increased, and the spot price of wood pulp also showed an upward trend. However, the demand was weak, and there was no clear trend [142] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, and inventory showed different trends. The downstream market faced cost - transfer difficulties [144][149][156] - **Outlook**: Short - term, it is recommended to be cautious and observe due to lack of a trend [143]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it provides trend judgments for various sectors and varieties, including "Bullish", "Bearish", "Sideways", and "Watch". Core Viewpoints The recent Politburo meeting released limited incremental information, and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to make more specific arrangements for next year's economic work. In the short - term, investors should be wary of potential "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustments after policy announcements. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year, presenting a layout window. For different sectors and varieties, the report analyzes their respective fundamentals, macro - factors, and market conditions to provide investment suggestions. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, be cautious of post - policy "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustments. In the long - term, the market adjustment since mid - November provides an opportunity to build long positions, and investors can use the futures discount structure to optimize investment costs and odds [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts upward movement. There are opportunities to go long on dips as market risk appetite recovers [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: Industry drivers are limited, but risk appetite recovery makes aluminum prices run strongly. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are under pressure. Zinc fundamentals have improved, and it is advisable to wait and see before the Fed's December interest - rate meeting. Nickel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and stainless steel futures will oscillate. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate in the short - term and has upward potential in the long - term. Silver is supported by supply - demand imbalance but is subject to high volatility. Platinum is likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short - term and can be bought on dips in the long - term. The [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be maintained [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Related Products**: Industrial silicon is bearish due to production changes in different regions and reduced production schedules of downstream products. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate with capacity reduction expectations and other factors. Lithium carbonate has short - term sharp increases due to various factors [1]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: For rebar and hot - rolled coils, macro - drivers strengthen in December, providing some upward momentum. It is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market after price increases. Avoid chasing high prices for single - side trading and consider participating in spot - futures positions. Iron ore has upward opportunities in the far - month contracts, while the near - month is restricted by production cuts. Other products such as silicon iron, glass, and coke also have their own market characteristics and investment suggestions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton and Sugar**: Cotton is in a situation of "supported but lacking drivers", and attention should be paid to future policies and market conditions. Sugar has a consensus on short - selling, but there is cost support below. Other agricultural products such as soybeans, pulp, and grains also have their own market analyses and investment suggestions [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Crude oil and fuel oil will oscillate due to factors such as OPEC+ production suspension, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions. Bitumen is bearish, and rubber - related products have different market trends and investment suggestions [1]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Various chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene have their own market analyses based on factors like cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment [1].

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 2025年12月12日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 品中 | | 12月11日 | 12月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | | 14900 | 14850 | 50 | 0.34% | | | 全乳基差 | | -285 | -365 | 80 | 21.92% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | | 14350 | 14450 | -100 | -0.69% | | | 非标价差 | | -835 | -765 | -70 | -9.15% | | | 品中 | | 12月11日 | 12月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | | 49.46 | 49.03 | 0.43 | 0.88% | | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | | 5 ...