证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 5 月 13 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、策略和先进制造组： 5 月 12 日报道称，三星已与主要客户敲定新定价，计划将 DDR4 的价格提高约 20%。 另外 DDR5 的价格也会上涨，幅度大概在 5%，由此全球主要存储厂都已上调，据 Etoday 报道，SK 海力士最近将 DRAM 价格上调了 12%。4 月份国际市场，PC 用 DDR4 8Gb 的价格环比上涨了 22.22%。存储厂从今年一季度就开始不断给市场传递涨价的 信息，但是因为美国对全球关税战的原因，市场反应较弱。目前中美关税战阶段性 超预期缓和，国内主要存储模组上市公司的存货也相对较高，股价也相对高位下跌 20%左右，因此本次存储芯片原厂涨价，大概率会给国内国内存储模组公司带来类似 2024 年上半年的业绩提升。 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 12 日中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟发布数据，4 月我国动力和其他电池合计出口 22.3GWh，环比下降 2.9%，同比增长 64.2%。1-4 月，我国动 ...

注：提及基金属于债券基金，其预期收益及风险水平低于股票基金、混合基金，高于货币市场基金。提 及基金属于国债指数基金，是债券基金中投资风险较低的品种。提及基金采用优化抽样复制策略，风险 收益特征与标的指数所表征的市场组合的风险收益特征相似。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成 任何投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需 谨慎。 浙商国际表示，展望后续，基本面对债市的影响逐渐弱化+中美关税谈判难以短期达成和解的背景下， 5 月偏宽松的资金面可能会给短端品种带来更好的投资机会，同时可以在组合中保留一定的久期仓位， 以抓捕降准/降息落地后带来的一波快牛机会。 由于国债的发行主体是国家，违约风险极低，因此国债ETF的历史收益相对较为稳定可靠，感兴趣的投 资者可以关注十年国债ETF（511260）、国债ETF（511010）。 今日，市场震荡波动，军工、计算机、证券、新能源、芯片等板块全线回调，深成指、创业板等翻绿。 增量资金涌入债市，截至5月12日，债券型ETF总规模已跨过2500亿元大关。 华泰期货表示，短期内国债期货仍有支撑，受益于资金面宽松和政策宽松预期。但中期来看 ...

中金研究 北京时间5月12日下午3点，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》[1]，关税下调幅度超出预期，市场情绪提振明显，恒生与恒生科技指数单 日涨幅分别突破3%和5%，尤其是消费电子、家电等出口相关板块；美股盘前主要指数期货也大涨3~4%，美元指数重回101以上，布伦特原油走高3.6% 至66美元/桶，避险情绪回落拖累黄金表现，金价回落3%至3200美元/盎司附近。 点击小程序查看报告原文 关税"降级"情况：下跌幅度超预期；美国对中国本轮关税由145%降至30%，美国有效税率由17~20%降至15~16% 在此之前，本轮美国对华关税为145%： 包括针对芬太尼的20%，34%的对等关税，以及随后反制的91%（50%+41%），再加上2018年第一轮贸易摩擦的 20%左右的税率（基于2018年加关税前的水平），总计税率为165%。此次会谈前，特朗普曾表示关税可能降至80%[2]，而市场也有部分预期调降至4月2 日"对等关税"刚开始的水平，也就是取消随后反制的91%，回到54%（20%的芬太尼+34%的对等关税）。 实际结果是，此次会谈不仅取消了91%的反制关税，还把34%中的24%也豁免90天， 使得本 ...

金十数据5月13日讯，招商宏观研报称，中美关税谈判取得积极成果，叠加5月7日推出的支持稳市场稳 预期的一揽子金融政策，预计国内市场风险偏好将持续回暖，人民币汇率继续保持在7.10-7.3区间。贝 森特表示7月4日左右将拿出"减税法案2.0"，中美关税谈判取得积极成果叠加积极的财政态度或令美 股、美元继续受到一定提振。 招商宏观：预计人民币汇率继续保持在7.10-7.3区间 ...

中美关税谈判取得积极进展，全球资本市场随之活跃，而避险资产黄金却遭大幅抛售，单日跌幅再度超100美元，近两三个月来，单日百美元 级波动已成常态。技术上黄金面临头部双顶形态能否确立的考验。贸易协议推进或超预期，短期金价受贸易消息扰动震荡，但长期看地缘政 治、债务及降息等因素仍支撑金价上行。 黄金于欧盘时段触及3207低点后企稳反弹，美盘时段进一步拉升至3248高位，但反弹动能相对有限，当前价格在3231-3248区间内维持震荡格 局。目前3250成为关键阻力位，若能有效突破并站稳，金价有望进一步测试3270 - 3288区域。不过从短期动能来看，尾盘时段仍面临向下回 调的压力。技术面上，上方阻力集中于3248 - 3252区间，下方支撑则在3225 - 3217附近。操作上徐老师建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为 辅。 操作策略1：建议回调3222-3217区域多，各止损8美金，目标看15-20美金。 操作策略2：建议反弹3245-3250区域空，各止损8美金，目标看20-30美金。 面对市场，实际上就是面对自己，改正缺点，直面错误，严格律己，不说谎言，才是成功的根本。本人解读世界经济体制，全面剖析海内外 交易品种 ...

投资策略报告/ 2025.05.12 中美关税谈判超预期,红五月进行时 分析师 李美岑 SAC 证书编号: S0160521120002 limc(a)ctsec.com 徐陈堂 分析师 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030003 xucy(a)ctsec.com 3. 《三大风格组合&5 月最新标的》 2025-05-07 核心观点 美国将(一)修改 2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品(包 括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品)加征的从价关税,其中,24%的关 税在初始的 90天内暂停实施,同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩 余 10%的关税;(二)取消根据 2025年4月8日第 14259号行政令和 2025年 4月9日第14266号行政令对这些商品的加征关税。 中国将(一) 相应修改税委会公告 2025年第 4 号规定的对美国商品加征的从 价关税,其中,24%的关税在初始的 90天内暂停实施,同时保留对这些商品 媒、旅游)三个方面。 相关报告 1.《红利、消费、科技三轮动- -"美" 周市场复盘(5月第2周)》 2025-05-11 2. 《业绩基准对市场风格的影响》 2 ...

中美关税冲突短期缓和 ——点评中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 2、双方在关税税率上达成较大幅度调降，表明双方对不希望出现贸易脱钩的极端情 况具有共识，关税冲突存在底线。由于谈判达成显著的实质性成果，市场风险偏好有 望短期缓和。 相关报告 3、联合声明强调"双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商"，表明除了税率调降， 双方也达成机制性进展，未来"日内瓦机制"下的 90 天谈判期十分关键。预计美方 将进一步对华展开要价，谈判可能从关税延申至市场开放（加大购买）、服务贸易（知 识产权）以及投资等领域。 4、考虑到特朗普多变的重商主义行事风格、中美意识形态矛盾以及中国经济更加深 入的结构性变化，双方达成类似第一阶段经贸协议的 2.0 版可能会经历一定的博弈过 程，能否在 90 天内达成进展，从而使双方关税不再次急剧转变，还需要进一步观察， 因此不能排除关税反复风险。未来特朗普政府仍有涵盖药品、半导体等领 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Cotton, Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: May 12, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13380, up 255, with a trading volume of 44,743 hands (an increase of 26328 hands) and an open interest of 101,668 (an increase of 12990) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 12980, up 295, with a trading volume of 2,819 hands (a decrease of 438 hands) and an open interest of 34,297 (a decrease of 234) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13240, up 290, with a trading volume of 382,405 hands (an increase of 223703 hands) and an open interest of 582,792 (an increase of 8708) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19500, up 320, with a trading volume of 3 hands (an increase of 2 hands) and an open interest of 9 (an increase of 1) [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18650, unchanged, with a trading volume of 0 hands (a decrease of 6 hands) and an open interest of 160 (unchanged) [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19430, up 325, with a trading volume of 189 hands (a decrease of 13 hands) and an open interest of 1309 (a decrease of 30) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 14122 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [3] - Cot A was priced at 78.25 cents/pound, down 0.70 cents/pound [3] - (FC Index):M: to - port price was 75.97 cents/pound, down 0.70 cents/pound [3] - CY IndexC32S was priced at 20300 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan/ton [3] - FCY IndexC33S was priced at 21924 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton [3] - Indian S - 6 was priced at 54600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [3] - Polyester staple fiber was priced at 7450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [3] - Pure polyester yarn T32S was priced at 11040 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was priced at 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose yarn R30S was priced at 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spread - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 400, down 40; 5 - 9 spread was - 260, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 140, up 35 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 850, up 320; 5 - 9 spread was - 780, down 325; 9 - 1 spread was - 70, up 5 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 was 6120, up 65; CY05 - CF05 was 5670, down 295; CY09 - CF09 was 6190, up 35 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 223, up 110; sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was - 428, up 75; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1624, down 701 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - From May 10 - 11, 2025, China - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva. The US promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of the reciprocal tariffs, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. China made corresponding adjustments [5] - As of May 9, 2025, Xinjiang's cotton sowing was nearly finished, with the planting area stable at about 36 million mu [5] - As of May 2, 2025, ON - CALL 2507 contract's seller un - priced contracts decreased by 469 to 18420, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week. 24/25 annual seller un - priced contracts decreased by 609 to 18483, equivalent to 420,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week. ICE seller un - priced contracts increased to 50451, equivalent to 1.14 million tons, an increase of 1165 (30,000 tons) week - on - week [6] Trading Logic - The China - US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. The US will modify tariff policies. The macro - level tariff policy is better than expected, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to open higher and strengthen in the short term [7] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be stronger due to macro - level influence [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The China - US negotiation progressed smoothly, but the overall demand for cotton grey cloth was insufficient, with slow sales and increasing inventory in weaving factories. Some spinning mills raised cotton yarn prices by 200 - 300 yuan/ton, but the market was in the off - season with weak downstream demand. Macro - level benefits may push cotton prices higher, and cotton yarn prices will follow but with a smaller increase [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On May 12, 2025, for CF509C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13240.00, the closing price was 256.00, up 30.6%, IV was 11.9% [12] - For CF509P12600.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13240.00, the closing price was 131.00, down 46.3%, IV was 13.5% [12] - For CF509P12200.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13240.00, the closing price was 73.00, down 41.6%, IV was 14.8% [12] Volatility and Market Sentiment - On May 12, 2025, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.5629, with a slight increase. The main contract's position PCR was 0.8529, and the trading volume PCR was 0.7283. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased, and the market's bearish sentiment was obvious [12][13] Option Strategy - Options: Wait and see [14] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][21][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: The outcome of the China-US tariff negotiation exceeded market expectations, and the subsequent market is expected to rebound. The spot freight rate bottom is gradually emerging, and the short - term market is expected to continue to rebound. However, the long - term outlook is still affected by the trade war [4][5][6]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The overall demand in the international dry bulk shipping market was weak last week, and freight rates were under pressure. The substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks may have a positive impact on market sentiment and support the freight rate market [17][18]. - **Oil Shipping**: The BDTI is maintaining a volatile trend. OPEC+ increasing production may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The concentrated outflow of goods in late April and early May supported the VLCC market, and the impact of the goods release rhythm on freight rates needs further attention [22]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - **Futures Market**: On May 12, 2025, all container shipping futures contracts except EC2604 reached the daily limit. For example, EC2506 closed at 1466.2 points, up 17.31% [2]. - **Price Difference Structure**: The price differences between different contracts showed various changes, such as EC06 - EC08 at - 328, down 48.8 [2]. - **Container Freight Rates**: SCFIS European Line was at 1302.62 points, down 5.54% week - on - week and 48.15% year - on - year; SCFIS US West Line was at 1455.31 points, up 10.19% week - on - week and down 41.97% year - on - year [2]. - **Fuel Costs**: WTI crude oil near - month was at $60.63 per barrel, up 1.05% week - on - week and down 23.33% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $63.42 per barrel, up 1.10% week - on - week and down 24.1% year - on - year [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the short - term, adopt a long - at - dips strategy for the near - month contracts 06 and 08. Hold the 8 - 10 and 6 - 10 positive spreads and the 10 - 12 negative spread [6][7]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On May 9, the BDI decreased by 1.29% to 1299 points, the BCI decreased by 2.45% to 1709 points, the BPI decreased by 0.73% to 1353 points, and the BSI increased by 0.10% to 969 points [15][16]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: On May 9, the freight rate of the Brazilian Tubarao - Qingdao iron ore route (BCI - C3) was $18.22 per ton, down 1.03% week - on - week; the freight rate of the Western Australia - Qingdao route (BCI - C5) was $7.49 per ton, down 2.60% week - on - week [17]. - **Industry News**: The substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks may support the market. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased, and the Panama Canal will conduct maintenance work, affecting the transportation capacity of Panamax ships [18][19]. Oil Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On May 9, the BDTI was at 995, down 1% week - on - week and 13.48% year - on - year; the BCTI was at 573, up 0.35% week - on - week and down 43.55% year - on - year [20][22]. - **Average Earnings**: The average earnings of VLCCs were $44031 per day, down 13% week - on - week and 20.86% year - on - year; the average earnings of Suezmax tankers were $46548 per day, down 14.44% week - on - week and 9.39% year - on - year [20]. - **Industry News**: Trump's visit to the Middle East may not achieve the goal of normalizing Saudi - Israeli relations. Goldman Sachs expects non - US shale oil supply to increase, and Saudi Aramco's Q1 net income decreased [23][24]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including SCFIS and SCFI index charts, container shipping freight rate charts, dry bulk shipping index charts, oil shipping index charts, and tanker earnings charts, which visually display the historical trends of relevant data [28][30][38].

| | 5月13日 20：30 美国4月未季调CPI年率 | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 5月14日 20：30 美国至5月10日当周初请失业金人数(万人) | | | 5月14日 20：30 美国4月零售销售月率 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 国债期货日报 2025/5/12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.530 | -0.46% T主力成交量 | 110974 | 25984↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.890 | -0.2% TF主力成交量 | 77590 | 11884↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.276 | -0.08% TS主力成交量 | 48586 | 12096↑ | | | TL主 ...