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【申万宏源策略】关税担忧边际降温,全球市场情绪修复明显——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250419-20250426)
申万宏源研究· 2025-04-28 01:30
以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ,作者全球资产配置团队 本期投资提示: 全球资产价格回顾:本周(20250419-20250426)特朗普多次发言表明希望缓和与中国的贸易关系。对于市场而言,关税不确定性最大的阶段基本 已经过去,市场风险偏好企稳反弹。叠加美股多支重要科技股业绩超预期,本周纳斯达克指数反弹明显,全球股市情绪明显转暖。1)利率方面, 美十年国债收益率下13 BPs来到4.29%,美元指数上行到99.6。 2)权益方面, 关税不确定性降温提升市场风险偏好。此外,美国重要科技股业绩 亮眼,如谷歌云业务利润21.8亿美元,大幅高于分析师预期的19.4亿美元,此外公布了700亿美元的股票回购计划。本周纳斯达克反弹明显。具体 地,标普500(4.59%)>发达市场(4.10%)>日经225(2.81%)>新兴市场(2.67%)>沪深300(0.38%)。 3)商品方面, 黄金冲高回落,整体下跌0.33%,布伦 特原油价格下跌2.98%。 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 关税担忧边际降温,全球市场情绪修复明显 全球资金层面:美国固收类基金持续流出,发达欧洲股市资金大幅流入。全球资金层面:1)国家与地区层 ...
【UNFX课堂】揭秘VIX:不只是“恐慌”,更是华尔街和老美的心电图!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 03:58
四月市场就这么在跌宕起伏中行将结束,过去的一个月市场极不平静。在特朗普关税大棒的挥舞下,市场一会儿上蹿下跳,一会儿死气沉沉,搞得人心惶 惶。这时候,市场参与者就会反复听到一个叫"VIX"的东西,什么"恐慌指数",什么"市场情绪风向标"……听着挺唬人,对吧? 关于VIX,官方说法是啥? 一句话:芝加哥期权交易所搞出来的,衡量标普500未来30天波动预期。说白了,就是一群玩期权的大佬们,用真金白银在赌未来一个月美股会不会"地 震"。要是大家觉得要出事儿,抢着买保险(期权),VIX就"噌"一下上去了;要是觉得太平无事,歌舞升平,VIX就趴着不动。 听起来是不是挺有道理?教科书上都这么写。但!是! 如果你就信了这些,那你就太天真了!图样图森破!这玩意儿,要是真这么简单,那满大街不都是 股神了? 那么VIX背后,到底藏着什么猫腻,跟咱们搞外汇黄金的有啥毛线关系呢? 你想想,谁最关心这"恐慌"?是华尔街那帮玩钱的精英,还是坐在华盛顿指挥全球的"老美"?没错,都是他们! 这VIX指数,表面看是标普500的波动预期,但你得往深了想! 标普500是啥?美国经济的脸面!是全球资本的风向标!这脸面要是看起来要"花"了,要"挨 揍" ...
深夜,全线暴涨!
新华网财经· 2025-04-24 01:16
4月23日,美股三大指数集体高开。据Wind数据显示,截至北京时间23:15,道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别涨2.32%、3.90%、2.85%。 中概股表现强势,纳斯达克中国金龙指数开盘后强势拉升, 截至北京时间23:15,该指数涨超4% 。 国际金价大幅回调,COMEX黄金期货、伦敦现货黄金盘中双双跳水;COMEX白银期货、伦敦现货白银则明显走高。 美股全线走高 Wind数据显示,截至北京时间23:15,道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别涨2.32%、3.90%、2.85%。 美国大型科技股悉数走高。 截至北京时间23:15,万得美国科技七巨头指数涨幅为4.58%,特斯拉领涨,涨幅超8%。 | < w | 万得美国科技七巨头指数[MAG' | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 45123.80 1976.40 4.58% | | | | 招标 成分 | | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 一 | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | | 258.581 | 8.66% | | TSLA.O | | | | | 亚马逊(A ...
【风险偏好回升,原油期货反弹】4月23日讯,原油期货收复了前一日的大部分失地。Price Futures Group分析师菲尔•弗林表示:“看起来我们正在冒一些风险。有时候,当你结束周末假期后,你会做出一些疯狂的举动和过度反应。所以我认为我们正在进行一些现实检查,市场正在回升。”
news flash· 2025-04-22 19:11
金十数据4月23日讯,原油期货收复了前一日的大部分失地。Price Futures Group分析师菲尔•弗林表 示:"看起来我们正在冒一些风险。有时候,当你结束周末假期后,你会做出一些疯狂的举动和过度反 应。所以我认为我们正在进行一些现实检查,市场正在回升。" 风险偏好回升,原油期货反弹 ...
长江期货市场交易指引-20250417
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-04-17 02:40
期货市场交易指引 2025 年 4 月 17 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指: | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债: | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢: | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石: | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦: | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜: 区间运行,建议区间交易 | | | ◆铝: | 观望 | | ◆镍: 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡: | 区间操作 | | ◆黄金: 待价格充分回调后,逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银: | 区间操作 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC: | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱: 看涨期权空头持有。 | | | ◆烧碱: | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶: | 震荡 | | ◆尿素: | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇: | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料: | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱: | 剧烈震荡 | | ◆苹果: | 震荡走强 | | ◆PTA: | 震荡偏弱 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪: | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋: 近月波动加剧,远月逢高偏空 | | | ◆玉米: | ...
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250415
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-15 06:07
2025年4月15日 研究所晨会观点精萃 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 点 精 萃 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0000671 电话:021-80128600-8632 邮箱:jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-80128600-8631 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号:F3033924 投资咨询证号:Z0013026 电话:021-80128600-8621 邮箱:Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号:F03091165 投资咨询证号:Z0019876 联系电话:021-80128600-8630 邮箱:liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-80128600-8622 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021- ...
宏观情绪修复盘面反弹,短期震荡思路对待
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 10:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment has recovered, leading to a rebound in the market. In the short term, a volatile trading approach should be adopted. The easing of Trump's tariff policy has increased market risk appetite, causing a rebound in the commodity market, especially in iron ore. However, due to the deterioration of international trade and stricter export investigations of Chinese steel products, the export demand for finished steel is expected to be weak, which may suppress the increase in hot metal production. The seasonal increase in overseas ore shipments also indicates a marginal weakening of the iron ore fundamentals. The 2509 contract is under pressure from increased supply and weakening exports of finished steel, with an expected operating range of 680 - 740 yuan/ton. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and continue to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The macro - sentiment recovery has led to a market rebound. The easing of Trump's tariff policy has increased market risk appetite, resulting in a significant rebound in iron ore. The deterioration of international trade and stricter export investigations of Chinese steel products may suppress the increase in hot metal production. The seasonal increase in overseas ore shipments indicates a marginal weakening of iron ore fundamentals. The 09 contract faces pressure from increased supply and weakening exports of finished steel. The 2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 680 - 740 yuan/ton. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and continue to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [1]. Futures Market - The main iron ore I2509 contract opened lower and then strengthened, closing at 707 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 3.06%. The trading volume was 597,300 lots, and the open interest was 481,900 lots, a decrease of 6,907 lots. The top 20 long positions in the 2509 contract increased by 2,016 lots to 299,669 lots, and the top 20 short positions increased by 362 lots to 313,628 lots [3][5]. Fundamental Tracking - From March 31 to April 6, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2.9219 billion tons, a decrease of 265,900 tons compared with the previous period. The Australian shipment volume was 1.6592 billion tons, a decrease of 327,200 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.4531 billion tons, a decrease of 73,900 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 733,900 tons, an increase of 72,500 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.3591 billion tons, a decrease of 13,200 tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.1887 billion tons, a decrease of 54,900 tons. As of April 4, the daily average output of iron ore concentrate from 126 domestic mines was 41,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.14%, with limited changes compared with the previous period. Overseas ore shipments have decreased slightly, mainly from Australia, and are at a relatively high level. The arrival volume has decreased slightly from a high level and is at a moderately low level, with a possible increase in the future. The iron ore price remains above the cost line of non - mainstream mines, having limited impact on non - mainstream mine shipments. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is still in a loose situation. On the demand side, the hot metal production has continued to increase slightly, but the concentrated resumption of production has passed, and the growth rate may slow down. On the inventory side, the port inventory has fluctuated slightly, and steel mills still maintain a low - inventory strategy. In the medium - to - long - term, high inventory restricts the upside space of the ore price [6].
综合晨报:美国对等关税暂缓90天执行-20250410
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 00:43
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue continues to disrupt the market, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite, but the escalation of China-US tariffs is beneficial for gold. - The US dollar index has weakened due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries by Trump, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - The stock index futures market has been boosted by China's tariff countermeasures against the US, but the subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - The commodity market is generally under pressure. The prices of palm oil, coal, iron ore, and some energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and tariff policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Event: Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10%. - Review: Gold prices soared by over 3%, once rising by over $100, setting a record for the largest single - day increase. The suspension of tariffs increased market risk appetite, but the escalation of China - US tariffs is beneficial for gold. Gold is a good tool to hedge against the decline in the US dollar's credit. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term volatile market [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Event: Summers warned that the US is far from out of danger and has lost a lot of credibility. The Fed meeting minutes showed that the US economy faces risks. Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries. - Review: The suspension of tariffs led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite, causing the US dollar index to weaken. The reciprocal tariffs are in a temporary adjustment phase, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation is slightly high and economic uncertainty has increased. Trump suspended tariffs on some countries but raised tariffs on China to 125%. - Review: The China - US tariff negotiation is at a deadlock, and policy uncertainty remains high. The financial market is volatile, and the risk of a liquidity shock has not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach and avoid chasing high prices [20][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Event: The Chinese Premier held a symposium on the economic situation. China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. - Review: The A - share market rebounded, and market sentiment was boosted. However, subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - averse approach in the short term [23][24][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Event: China released a white paper on China - US economic and trade relations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 111 billion yuan. - Review: The main logic of the treasury bond market is clear. The probability of a short - term easing of trade conflicts is low, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is difficult to be falsified. The upward trend of treasury bonds is likely to continue. - Investment advice: Hold positions and wait for the implementation of loose policies, or add positions on dips [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Event: Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export tariffs to 0% to offset the impact of US tariffs. - Review: The global market sentiment is low, and the price of palm oil has fallen. China's counter - tariffs on the US may be beneficial for far - month soybean oil. The possibility of Indonesia reducing palm oil export tariffs is low. - Investment advice: Consider closing previous short positions and pay attention to the MPOB report [30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Event: As of the end of March, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased, and India's cotton planting area may increase. The CCI has purchased a large amount of cotton, and its sales volume is not high. - Review: The CCI's purchase and sales situation, as well as the trade war, may affect India's cotton production, consumption, and import estimates. The price of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen, but the decline may slow down. - Investment advice: The cotton price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to macro - policies, planting, weather, and industry conditions in major producing countries [32][35][37]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Event: China's coal demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025. - Review: The coal price has been relatively stable. The power plant's inventory is at a neutral level, and the price is expected to be supported in May but lacks elasticity. - Investment advice: The power plant may replenish coal inventory in May, but the price increase is limited [38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Event: JFE Steel in Japan plans to shut down a blast furnace, reducing its annual crude steel production capacity by about 4 million tons. - Review: The black metal market has continued to decline, but the short - term deterioration of fundamentals is not severe. Pay attention to the risk of liquidity. - Investment advice: Maintain a bearish approach and wait for a better opportunity to short after a rebound [39][40][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Event: The coking coal market in East China has remained stable. Some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced production, and downstream coke enterprises have started to increase prices. - Review: The coking coal spot market has improved, but the futures market faces pressure. The coke spot market may continue to increase prices, but the medium - long - term supply is expected to be loose. - Investment advice: The spot market has stabilized, but the futures market faces pressure from subsequent demand and warehouse receipts [42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Event: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased significantly, but inventory has only decreased slightly. - Review: High raw material prices and weak downstream demand have led to a decrease in the operating rate. The futures price difference between corn starch and corn is expected to remain stable. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 price difference is expected to remain around the normal processing fee of 380 yuan [44][45][47]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Event: The inventory at northern ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the price of corn in the production area is relatively firm. - Review: The outflow of corn from Northeast China has accelerated, and the weak basis has suppressed the futures price. The 07 contract is considered undervalued. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to whether the acceleration of inventory reduction in Northeast China can boost trader sentiment [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Event: The retail sales of passenger cars in March increased significantly year - on - year. - Review: The steel price has rebounded, and market sentiment has improved. However, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is declining slowly. - Investment advice: Adopt a cautious approach in the short term and hedge on the spot market when prices are high [49][50][51]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Event: The sales volume of three major listed pig enterprises increased in March, and the average selling price slightly increased. - Review: The short - term fluctuation of pig prices has increased, but it will eventually return to the fundamental situation. The spot price may face downward pressure. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Event: Yunnan Nengtou Group's Yongchang Silicon's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon project was put into operation. Some production capacity in Xinjiang was reduced, and some new production capacity in the southwest is expected to be put into operation. - Review: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change. - Investment advice: The futures price may range from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [55][56][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Event: The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the price of refined lead decreased. - Review: The lead price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Although the medium - term outlook is bullish, macro risks have not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for buying opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [58][59][60]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Event: The blockade of Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru was suspended. Codelco plans to significantly increase copper production this year. Indonesia will increase mining royalties. - Review: The short - term macro factors have a relatively uncertain impact on copper prices. The short - term supply and demand in China are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper [61][62][64]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Event: The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. - Review: The zinc price is mainly affected by macro factors. The market is cautious, and the export of zinc may be suppressed. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [65][66][67]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Event: An Australian company produced the first batch of lithium carbonate in Argentina. Argentina plans to increase lithium production by 75% in 2025. - Review: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price may continue to decline in the long term. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Event: Indonesia will increase mining and coal royalties in the second week of April. - Review: The nickel price has slightly decreased, and the cost is expected to increase marginally. The market may digest negative sentiment. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips after the release of negative sentiment [71][72]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports to 84%. The US C3 inventory started to accumulate. - Review: The PG price has decreased, but it may strengthen due to the increase in tariffs and the recovery of crude oil prices. However, policy uncertainty should be noted. - Investment advice: The domestic market may experience a valuation - repair market, but reduce risk exposure and participate cautiously [73][74][75]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Event: The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs. - Review: The oil price has rebounded, but there is still a risk of decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff issue and the OPEC+ production policy. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short term and still has a downward risk [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - Event: The tariff war has escalated, and the demand for PTA is uncertain. - Review: The PTA price has decreased, and the demand for polyester is affected by tariffs. The impact on PTA pricing is relatively lagged. - Investment advice: The PTA price will mainly follow the crude oil price in the short term and is expected to be weakly volatile [77][78]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Event: The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. - Review: The styrene price has reached a new low and then rebounded. The downstream inventory may accumulate, and the production profit may not be sustainable. - Investment advice: The eb - bz spread may expand in the short term and contract in the long term [78][79]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Event: The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the supply was stable while the demand was weak. - Review: The caustic soda price is expected to decline, and the market is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [80][82][83]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - Event: The price of imported wood pulp decreased. - Review: The pulp price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [84]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - Event: The spot price of PVC powder decreased. - Review: The PVC price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Event: The export price of bottle chips decreased, and a polyester bottle chip device in East China restarted. - Review: The bottle chip price has decreased, and the processing fee has been passively repaired, but it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range. - Investment advice: The bottle chip price will follow the cost side and be weakly volatile in the short term [86][88][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Event: The price of soda ash in the East China market was adjusted slightly. - Review: The soda ash price is in a low - level oscillation, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is general. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium term [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Event: The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. - Review: The float glass price is mainly affected by demand. Although there may be an improvement in the second - quarter demand, the upward space is limited. - Investment advice: The float glass price will be in a low - level range in the short term. Pay attention to buying opportunities on large dips [91][92][93].
申万宏观·周度研究成果(3.30-4.5)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-04-05 04:00
3 . 3 0 - 4 . 5 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 1、 热点思考 | 美国通胀"计入"了多少关税?——对等关税前瞻 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见"系列会议第25期 《利率的"难题"》 2、"洞见"系列会议第51期 《美国通胀"计入"了多少关税?——对等关税前瞻》 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 美国通胀"计入"了多少关税?——对等关税前瞻 热点思考 2025.3.30 4月2日,美国"对等关税"或将落地。抢进口影响之下,美国通胀上行压力已有所显现。目前物价已经"计入"多少 关税,关税落地后还需关注哪些"次生风险"? 1、如何理解PMI与EPMI背离? 2、海外高频 | 市场风险偏好再度恶化,黄金价格续创新高 3、Top Charts | 美国对等关税冲击 高 频 跟 踪 点评 2025.3.31 3月31日,国家统计局公布3月PMI指数,制造业PMI为50.5%、前值50.2%;非制造业PMI为50.8%、前值50.4%。 1 如何理解PMI与EPMI背离? 2 海外高频 | 市场风险偏好再度恶化,黄金价格续创新高 高频跟踪 2025.3.30 ...
【宏观策略】关税进入拉锯阶段,关注政策后手应对——2025年4月资产配置报告
华宝财富魔方· 2025-04-03 14:24
| A股策略与观点 | 逆怕 | 相对谨慎 | 中华 | 相对乐观 | 非常小学 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 核心逻辑观点 | | | | 配置建议 | | A股大盘 | 关税抗动压制全球风险偏好,A股"重估"后进入休整阶段: | | | | 中信 | | | ◆ 国内经济基本面:政策发力经济开门红. 但供强需弱延续,内生动能仍然面临下行压力; | | | | | | | ◆ 资金面:A股成交额回落,市场对科技方向的情绪降温: | | | | | | | ◆ 政策面:政策博弈阶段已过,进入政策落地及效果验证阶段,重点观察基本面修复情况: | | | | | | | ◆ 外部环境:特朗普加征关税找动进一步加大,压制全球风险偏好,市场波动加剧。 | | | | | | | > 关税压制风险偏好,财报季重视业绩主线:海外关税升级或压制全球风险偏好,A股重估后进入休整价 | | | | | | | 段,叠加财报季来临,市场或从提估值转向关注业绩基本面。短期来看,科技情绪有所降温,在出现新 | | | | | | | 的重磅催化前,市场或阶段性转向绩 ...