Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with each side canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs, alleviating concerns about a US economic recession and boosting global risk appetite. Domestically, China's exports in April far exceeded expectations, and the joint statement led to a short - term boost in domestic risk appetite, with the RMB exchange rate and domestic stock markets strengthening. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks may rebound in the short - term; bonds may experience short - term shock and correction; commodities in different sectors have different short - term trends such as shock, shock and rebound, or high - level shock. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the China - US Geneva talks eased concerns about a US recession, and the US dollar index rebounded. Domestically, China's April exports were strong, and the joint statement boosted domestic risk appetite. Stocks may rebound in the short - term, bonds may correct, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. [2] - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like military, humanoid robots, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market rose. With strong exports and the joint statement, short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold futures prices dropped. Trade tensions eased, the US dollar rose, and geopolitical risks decreased. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is recommended for short - term observation. [4][5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded on Monday. The Geneva talks boosted risk appetite. Currently at the peak - to - off - season transition, demand is weak, and supply may peak and decline. Short - term rebound is possible. [6] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rebounded. Steel mill profits are good, but steel demand is weakening. Supply may increase in the second quarter. Short - term rebound is possible, but the medium - term trend is downward. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices rebounded slightly. Iron alloy demand is weakening. Supply is also decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The trade truce relieved the commodity market, and oil prices rebounded. Although still bearish overall, the extremely bearish stance has softened. [9] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed oil prices up. Supply is low, demand is being boosted, and inventory transfer and depletion are occurring. It will follow oil prices and fluctuate at a high level. [9] - **PX**: The trade truce benefited the weaving end. PX has many overhauls, and it will remain strong in the short - term. [9] - **PTA**: Tariff cancellation and upstream overhauls led to a rise in the basis. Supply is decreasing and demand is increasing, but there are some factors that may affect future trends. It may be strong in the short - term. [10][11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester chain benefited from tariff cancellation. Supply is high, but downstream demand is strong, and it will remain strong. [11] - **Short - Fiber**: The yarn mill's operation is stable, and short - fiber prices have rebounded. It will remain strong in the short - term. [11] - **Methanol**: The price in Jiangsu Taicang is strong. Supply pressure is prominent, but there is short - term price repair and medium - term downward pressure. [12] - **PP**: The domestic PP market had a weak morning and a rising afternoon. Production is high, demand is weak, and the LP spread may strengthen in the short - term. [13][14] - **LLDPE**: The PE market adjusted. With increased device overhauls, decreased inventory, and rising oil prices, the price is expected to repair in the short - term. [14] - **Urea**: The domestic urea price increased. Supply is high, but there are short - term positive factors. Future trends depend on export policies. [15] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China - US talks boosted market sentiment. Supply - side processing fees are falling, and demand may be boosted by tariff cuts. Short - term price is volatile, and mid - term short - selling opportunities may be sought. [16] - **Aluminum**: The tariff situation is complex, and it is recommended to close long positions on rebounds and look for short - selling opportunities later. [16] - **Tin**: Supply may increase as mines are expected to resume production. Demand is entering the off - season, and short - term prices are volatile with risks from production resumption and weakening demand. [17]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 13 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆豆粕： | 低 ...

Group 1 - The signing of the US-China trade agreement has provided a temporary boost to global markets, but underlying economic risks remain [1] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Wilson predicts a year-end target of 6500 points for the S&P 500, indicating a 12% upside potential, as the retreat of tariff threats allows the Federal Reserve to shift its policy focus [3] - Apollo's Chief Economist Slok observes that traders are adjusting their interest rate cut expectations from 3-4 cuts to 2, signaling a shift in market sentiment as recession fears diminish [3] Group 2 - Evercore's founder Altman warns that the current agreement is merely a "90-day high tariff suspension" and highlights that the overall tariff rate remains significantly elevated, which could lead to inflationary pressures [4] - The market is experiencing a cognitive restructuring, balancing short-term risk appetite with long-term structural challenges, as the trade agreement may temporarily boost corporate earnings but does not eliminate the risk of renewed trade tensions [4] - The agreement alters the risk pricing logic for investors, necessitating a more sophisticated warning mechanism for asset portfolios as policy uncertainty transitions from acute risks to chronic variables [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma between preventing inflation caused by tariff policies and avoiding excessive tightening that could lead to an economic hard landing [3] - Market expectations indicate a potential 100 basis points rate cut by the end of the year, reflecting a significant shift in sentiment despite the Fed's current stance [3] - The PCE price index for May showed a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, slightly below expectations, while the core PCE index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] Group 2 - The trade policies of the Trump administration are creating conflicts that challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve, as tariffs raise import prices and undermine business investment confidence [5][6] - The non-farm payroll report for May indicated an addition of 177,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, but the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, highlighting ongoing economic challenges [6] Group 3 - The global capital allocation strategy is undergoing significant changes, with the dollar index facing depreciation pressure and a slowdown in dollar reserve accumulation by central banks [7] - Emerging market bonds, particularly in Asia, are attracting global capital due to higher yields and stable fundamentals, while the Shanghai Composite Index shows long-term investment value despite geopolitical risks [7] Group 4 - dbg markets has introduced three strategies to navigate the complex market environment: establishing a policy shock scenario analysis model, creating dynamic hedging portfolios, and capitalizing on regional economic disparities [8] - The platform emphasizes advanced trading technology and regulatory safeguards, providing a stable trading environment for various asset classes [8] Group 5 - The global financial system is undergoing profound restructuring, and investors are encouraged to seek certainty amid uncertainty as a guiding principle [9] - dbg markets aims to enhance service quality and trading solutions for clients in the evolving landscape of Federal Reserve policy shifts and global economic changes [9]

关税如何影响行业配置？20250512 摘要 • 中美贸易谈判取得进展，但即使关税降至 54%-74%，仍高于历史水平， 将持续影响企业利润、实体经济和外需，并可能推高美国通胀。市场短期 情绪提振，但需关注实际需求和通胀影响。 • 美联储面临经济增长放缓和通胀压力的两难境地，可能采取降息、降准等 措施，但市场反应不振，投资者对其效果存疑。美联储政策需关注全球经 济环境及其他央行政策动向。 • 亚洲货币汇率近期波动与金管局干预、全球贸易环境变化和美元资产安全 性有关。台湾寿险公司在汇兑和风险敞口方面存在风险，美元资产未能起 到良好保护作用，加剧了市场波动。 • 房地产市场在 2024 年二季度开始修复，但近期出现疲弱迹象。在对等关 税背景下，需重新评估房地产行业。预计房地产市场将继续经历调整，但 总体趋势有望保持稳定。 • 4 月份数据显示，对美国出口下滑，对东南亚出口增加，可能涉及转口贸 易。未来需关注新兴市场是否会受到更多限制，以及转口贸易是否会遇到 阻碍。 Q&A 关税谈判的进展如何，未来可能会对市场和行业产生哪些影响？ 美联储政策目前面临明显的两难境地。一方面需要应对经济增长放缓的问题， 另一方面又要控 ...

美联储理事库格勒表示，即使最近中美贸易关系取得进展，但特朗普政府的关税政策仍可能推升通胀并 拖累经济增长。 库格勒周一在一场活动中表示："贸易政策正在演变，并可能继续转变，今天早上也是如此。尽管如 此，即使关税水平接近目前宣布的水平，它们似乎仍可能产生显著的经济影响。" 商务部此前公布的声明显示，中美双方将暂时降低彼此商品的关税，以便两国努力达成一项更全面的贸 易协议。美国将对华关税从合计145%降至30%，而中国将对美商品关税从125%降至10%。 根据芝商所的美联储观察工具，市场此前曾预计美联储在即将到来的6月会议上降息25个基点，并在今 年余下时间再降息两次。 库格勒表示："未来通胀和就业可能走向不同方向，在考虑未来政策路径时，我将密切关注事态发展。" 她还表示，她预计关税将构成负面供给冲击，随着物价上涨，导致经济增长和消费者需求减弱。 她表示，关税对生产率也可能产生"显著影响"，因为企业可能削减投资，并采取其他效率较低的举措来 应对这种情况。她表示，整体经济需求下降也可能使求职者更难找到工作。 库格勒表示："这种整体需求下降可能对通胀产生下行压力，但可能不足以抵消不利供给冲击的影响。" 库格勒形容美国 ...

宏观预期降温，黑色震荡下行 钢矿周度报告 2025-05-12 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 报告主要观点 | 版块 | 关键词 价格 | 主要观点 现货继续下跌，盘面弱势运行 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供给 库存 | 高炉产量高位，电炉继续减产 建材库存开始累积，板材库存同步走高 | | | 需求 | 建材需求环比增速放缓，板材需求内弱外强 | | 钢 | | | | 材 | 利润 | 高炉利润走扩，电炉亏损扩大 | | | 基差 | 基差小幅走扩，正套注意止盈 | | | | 中美贸易冲突进入谈判环节，国内政策落地，美联储按兵不动；产业变化：上周高炉产量继续增加，电炉开工环比继续回落，五大材开始减产，短流程亏 损减产，螺纹供应下降，板类产量变化不大；需求方面，混凝土发运回落，建材需求环比增速继续放缓；板类需求同步放慢，出口继续高位但增速明显放 | | | 总结 | 缓，内外需求下行压力较大；库存 ...

长江期货贵金属周报 贸易政策谈判在即，价格延续震荡 2025/5/12 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2023/07/03 2023/08/03 2023/09/03 2023/10/03 2023/11/03 2023/12/03 2024/01/03 2024/02/03 2024/03/03 2024/04/03 2024/05/03 2024/06/03 2024/07/03 2024/08/03 2024/09/03 2024/10/03 2024/11/03 2024/12/03 2025/01/03 2025/02/03 2025/03/03 2025/04/03 ...

黄金期货 2025.05.12-05.16 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周美联储召开议息会议，维持基准利率不变，并指出关税对通胀的影 响较大且不确定，美元指数止跌反弹，黄金高位震荡。中长期支撑逻辑： 美国财政赤字及全球央行购金仍提供基本面支撑。后续需关注美联储政 策路径、地缘冲突与关税进展。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金短期回调压力犹存，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力 合约2506下方支撑：758－765，上方压力829-836。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期回调，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力合约2508 下方支撑：776－785，上方压力828-837。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Myste ...

本周，黄金整体冲高回落走势，周一周二大阳上涨，周三小幅跳空高开后直接拐头下跌收阴，周四延续下跌收阴，周五下探回升收阳，周线最终收出一根带 有长上影线的阳线。 一、基本面 1、本周市场情况 （1）地缘政治因素 中东局势持续紧张，伊朗核谈判推迟，美伊关系紧张，随时可能升级的冲突持续为黄金提供避险支撑。同时，俄乌冲突依旧存在，印度与巴基斯坦的军事对 峙局面未变，这些地缘政治风险巩固了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，刺激市场避险需求，推动金价上涨。 （2）经济数据与政策因素 美英达成贸易协议，部分撤回特定领域的关税、扩大产品市场准入，但协议仍有诸多细节待定。此外，欧盟威胁对千亿欧元美国产品征税，贸易紧张局势的 不确定性依然存在，这对黄金价格产生了双向影响。 美国经济数据：5月3日当周首次申请失业救济人数下降至22.8万人，低于市场预期，显示就业市场有一定韧性。不过，美联储理事巴尔警告特朗普关税政策 可能在今年晚些时候推高通胀、降低经济增长并增加失业率。美国经济数据的复杂性使得市场对经济前景的预期存在分歧，增加了市场不确定性，影响黄金 走势。 美联储政策预期：5月8日，美联储宣布将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，连 ...