SHMET 网讯： 6月国内精炼锌库存先增后降，处于往年同期偏低位，交割前后上期所锌仓单量有所累积，整体重心较5月有升，上周上期所锌库存43633吨，仓单量6372 吨；截止6月26日，SMM七地锌锭社库7.95万吨，短期内变化不大。6月中旬，各地锌锭现货升水还偏强，近日却是快速回落的态势，锌价快速走高，下游 畏高慎采，贸易商为出货而下调升水。LME锌库存延续4月底以来的降势，由4月中的高位19.5万吨降至最新的11.9万吨，注册仓单在6月中旬有一次攀升， 最新为9.1万吨，总体水平略偏低；关键指标LME0-3锌现货由前期持续小幅贴水已收复至平水附近，谨防出现类似于铜的挤仓风险。 据ILZSG最新报告，今年4月全球锌矿产量101.92万吨，环比微降0.6%，同比增加9.7%；1-4月累计产量393.7万吨，累计同比增长5.07%。一季度，海外矿山 稳步释放产量，Tara矿复产、Kipushi重启均同比有增量，Antamina矿产量虽同比小降但年度指导目标明显提升，还有OZ矿贡献增量。国内，5月SMM锌精 矿产量环比增长9.2%至32.5万吨，季节性恢复中，1-5月累计产量139.84万吨，同比下降3.4%。进 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the financial futures and options market, both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are expected to be strong in the short and medium - term. In the commodity futures and options market, different metals and energy materials, as well as agricultural products, have their own unique supply - demand and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [1] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] - **Core logic**: Positive sentiment in the equity market due to Sino - US communication and policy support, and the potential rise of the science and technology sector [1] Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [2] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [2] - **Reference strategy**: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [3] - **Core logic**: Weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy expectations, and the central bank's continued net investment affects the capital market [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials - **Copper** - **Day - to - day view**: Price range from 79,200 to 81,000 [4] - **Medium - term view**: Price range from 60,000 to 90,000 [4] - **Reference strategy**: Adopt an oscillating and slightly upward trading idea, buy call options [4] - **Core logic**: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US, supply shortages, and changes in international demand and inventory levels affect copper prices [4] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 8,000 to 8,100 [5] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure, price range from 7,000 to 9,000 [5] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short SI2508 - C - 9000 until expiration, short futures on rallies [5] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [5] - **Polysilicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 33,000 to 35,000 [7] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a low level, price range from 28,000 to 38,000 [7] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short PS2508 - C - 45000 until expiration [7] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [7] - **Aluminum** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 20,400 to 20,700 [9] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a high level, price range from 19,200 to 21,000 [9] - **Reference strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [9] - **Core logic**: Limited supply increase, low inventory, good performance in the automotive market, and the overall rise of non - ferrous metals [9] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 63,000 to 65,000 [11] - **Medium - term view**: Cost support weakens, prices decline steadily, price range from 56,000 to 68,000 [11] - **Reference strategy**: Short futures on rallies, sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core logic**: Low spot prices, large supply, and high inventory levels [11] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Day - to - day view**: Downward pressure weakens [14] - **Medium - term view**: Stop falling and stabilize [14] - **Reference strategy**: Exit the strategy of selling call options and buying put options on RB2510, sell out - of - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 [14] - **Core logic**: Potential relief of raw material inventory pressure and changes in supply and demand [14] Livestock, Poultry, and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias [17] - **Medium - term view**: Rebound temporarily and then maintain a weak trend [17] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [17] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply and demand, with supply remaining abundant and demand weak [17] - **Sugar** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate weakly [19] - **Medium - term view**: Rise first and then fall [19] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [19] - **Core logic**: Global supply surplus expectations and domestic supply - demand and import situations [19] - **Protein Meal** - **Day - to - day view**: Soybean meal 2509 oscillates in the range of [2,900, 3,000] [22] - **Medium - term view**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2,900, 3,100] [22] - **Reference strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850 [22] - **Core logic**: Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean and Canadian rapeseed growing areas, and changes in international and domestic soybean and rapeseed markets [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate within a range [25] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure [25] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short out - of - the - money call options on PG2508 [25] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply, demand, and cost factors [25] - **PVC** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [28] - **Medium - term view**: Limited upside potential [28] - **Reference strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on PVC [28] - **Core logic**: Changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory levels [28]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic precious metal futures experienced a decline, while international precious metals saw an increase in prices, indicating a divergence in market trends [1][2]. Price Movements - As of June 30, the main contract for Shanghai gold was priced at 767.58 CNY per gram, reflecting a decrease of 0.63% - The main contract for Shanghai silver was priced at 768.58 CNY per kilogram, with a decline of 0.54% - In contrast, COMEX gold was priced at 3306.10 USD per ounce, marking an increase of 0.61% - COMEX silver reached 36.44 USD per ounce, up by 0.75% [1][2]. Market Expectations - Weak U.S. economic data has heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a 92.5% probability of a cut in September, and an anticipated total reduction of 65-75 basis points for the year [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that more time is needed to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, while consumer confidence data showed a decline in inflation expectations, further supporting rate cut speculation [4]. Recent Trends - Last week, COMEX gold prices fell by 2.90% to 3286.10 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 1.50% to 768.64 CNY per gram - The probability of maintaining interest rates in July is at 81.9%, with an 18.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a cumulative 76% probability of a total cut of 25 basis points by September [5].

Macroeconomic Overview - Last Friday, spot gold experienced a significant decline of 2%, reaching a nearly one-month low, with a weekly drop of 2.8%, marking two consecutive weeks of losses [1] - On Monday, gold prices showed resilience by rebounding after hitting a low, indicating a market struggle between risk aversion and risk appetite [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a key factor influencing market sentiment [1] - The U.S.-China rare earth trade agreement and the G7 tax agreement have boosted global stock markets, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe haven [1] - Economic data, including a decline in U.S. consumer spending due to tariff policies, has intensified expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 92.5% probability for a cut in September [1] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Iran and Israeli strikes in Syria, have heightened risk aversion, providing long-term support for gold prices [1] Dollar Index - Last Friday, the dollar index showed a downward trend, with a high of 97.479 and a low of 96.966, closing at 97.228 [2] - The market experienced a slight rebound in the morning but faced pressure later, ultimately closing with a bearish candlestick [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance around the 99.40 area, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] - Key support levels to watch include the 96.50 area, which is the lower edge of a downward channel [2] Gold Market - Last Friday, gold prices overall declined, with a high of 3327.78 and a low of 3255.68, closing at 3274.43 [4] - The market tested weekly support levels, resulting in a bearish weekly close [5] - The focus for short-term trading is on the 3300 level, which is critical for determining future price movements [7] Euro/USD - Last Friday, the Euro/USD pair showed an overall upward trend, with a low of 1.1680 and a high of 1.1753, closing at 1.1719 [6] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, supported by the 1.0850 level on the monthly chart [6] - Key resistance levels to monitor include 1.1710, which is crucial for short-term trading strategies [6] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data and events to watch include the European Central Bank forum, UK GDP, Swiss KOF economic leading indicators, and U.S. Chicago PMI [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll data is a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, reflecting labor market health and influencing global asset pricing. The upcoming June data will further validate the cooling pace of the labor market and impact the Fed's interest rate expectations for September [2]. Labor Market Indicators - The unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls showing an increase of 139,000 jobs in May, despite a downward revision of 95,000 jobs from previous data. The labor department's survey methods have raised concerns about data interpretation, particularly regarding potential overestimation of job creation [3][8]. - The market anticipates June non-farm payrolls to show an increase of 120,000 jobs, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Wage growth is expected to slow, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [6][10]. Institutional Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts an increase of 140,000 to 160,000 jobs for June, while Wells Fargo is more pessimistic, forecasting only 115,000 new jobs. The market median expectation is for an increase of 130,000 jobs [10]. - The disparity in predictions highlights differing views on the labor market's resilience, with some institutions emphasizing the impact of tariffs and government hiring freezes on employment [10]. Historical Data Review - Historical data shows a trend of slowing job growth, with March's initial figure at 228,000 jobs, revised down to 117,000 in April, and May's figure at 139,000. This indicates a pattern of deceleration in job growth, while wage growth remains relatively stable [8]. Market Impact and Strategies - The non-farm payroll data significantly influences the gold market, with expectations of job growth above 200,000 and an unemployment rate below 4.2% likely to strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance, negatively impacting gold prices. Conversely, lower job growth and a higher unemployment rate could boost expectations for rate cuts, benefiting gold [12][13]. - The upcoming ISM manufacturing PMI data is also crucial, as a rebound could alleviate recession concerns and positively correlate with non-farm payroll performance [15]. Key Events and Data - The Senate's vote on the "Big Beautiful Bill" and statements from Federal Reserve officials will be closely monitored, as they may provide insights into the Fed's stance on inflation and employment ahead of the non-farm payroll release [16][17].

长安期货有限公司 投资咨询业务资格（陕证监许可字[2012]101号） OPEC+增产消息再现，油价或维持弱势 原油周评 2025年6月30日 范磊（F03101876，Z0021225） 目录 操作思路 行情回顾 基本面分析 观点小结 1 2 3 4 01 操作思路 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 CONTENTS 02 行情回顾 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 行情回顾 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 操作思路 (SC主力合约K线走势图) 操作思路： 上周油价在地缘因素降温的情况下 极速回吐前期的风险溢价，整体录 得明显的跌幅存在；预计本周时间 市场或逐步平复情绪，回归交易供 给侧宽松前景的逻辑，价格或较难 出现明显的反弹，建议关注区间 【470-495】元/桶，操作上多以 短差布局为主，可谨慎逢高沽空； 同时本周建议关注美国6月劳动力 市场数据变动、制造业表现、以及 后续OPEC+增产的相关消息。仅 供参考。 资料来源：文华财经，长安期货 行情回顾： 上周油价在周初时间出现明显的跌 幅，主要是受到了伊以冲突平息的 影响，市场在短期内迅速回吐了大 量的前期风险溢价，导致油价大幅 跳水回落；随后市场的交易逻 ...

| TG国贸期货 | 日度策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/06 | 布给公馆言: /0001 | 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 当前国内外消息面较为真空,股指经历强势突破后,在情绪和流 | | | 动性的驱动下进一步走强的概率较高,后续关注宏观增量信息对 | 股指方向的指引。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 農汤 | 宏观金融 | 空间。 | | | 市场风险偏好改善,金价短期或承压;但关税不确定性仍高企, | 農湯 | 真金 | 金价或难持续下挫,料震荡运行。 | | | | 银价短期震荡为主。 | 震荡 | 日银 | 近期美联储多位官员发表鸽派言论,市场风险偏好回升,叠加海 | 看多 | 镇司 | | 外挤仓行情发酵, 短期铜价偏强。 | 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回升,叠加电解铝库存 | म | 低位运行,铝价偏强运行。 | | | | 美联储降息预 ...

沪铜日评20250630: 国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比陷增 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 投资策略 | 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 变量名称 | 2025-06-27 | 2025-06-26 | 2025-06-19 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | | 收盘价 | 79920 | 78890 | 78310 | 1.030.00 | | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 成交量(手) | 131756 | 77300 | 63400 | 54, 456.00 --- | | | | 持仓量(手) | 215705 | 191140 | 175704 | 24, 565. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 25346 | 23696 | 44816 | 1, 650.00 | | | | SMN 1#电解铜平均价 | 80125 | 78940 | 78680 | 1,185.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货开贴水 | 沪铜县 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the given reports. Core Views Copper - Market expects the Fed to enter an interest - rate cut cycle in July or September, weakening the US dollar and boosting copper prices. The tight supply in other regions and the continuation of "strong reality" in the fundamentals support copper prices. Short - term copper prices may rebound, and the shortage trend is hard to reverse before the "232" investigation ends, with a reference range of 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina market maintains a slight surplus in the short - term, with prices expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term, with a reference range of 2750 - 3150. Aluminum prices are supported by the macro environment and low inventory but limited by the off - season, expected to be in high - level wide - range oscillations, with a reference range of 20000 - 20800 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum - alloy market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the demand side being more prominent. The market will continue to suppress price increases, but the stable aluminum - aluminum alloy price spread and the strong electrolytic aluminum price provide support. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with a reference range of 19200 - 20000 [4]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side is weakening. It is advisable to take a high - short approach, with a focus on the TC growth rate and downstream demand changes. The reference range for the main contract is 22500 - 23000 [7]. Nickel - The nickel market has a short - term price rebound due to improved sentiment. The supply shortage of nickel ore has been alleviated. The cost support has weakened, and the medium - term supply is loose. The price is expected to adjust within a range, with a reference range of 116000 - 124000 [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has a short - term price rebound affected by news and sentiment. The fundamentals are weak, with high production, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction. The price is expected to operate weakly, with a reference range of 12300 - 13000 [11]. Tin - The tin supply recovery is slow, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Considering the pessimistic demand outlook, it is advisable to short at high levels based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term price rebound due to news and sentiment. The supply is sufficient with clear pressure, and the demand is hard to boost. The price is expected to operate within a range of 58000 - 64000, and attention should be paid to upstream production and downstream orders [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 80125 yuan/ton, up 1.50%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 35.34%. The import profit and loss was - 2990 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12%, and imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 10.83% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose to 20890 yuan/ton, up 1.36%. The import profit and loss was - 1169 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.12% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose to 20100 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. The monthly spread of some contracts changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66%. The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 6.74% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 22570 yuan/ton, up 1.39%. The import profit and loss was - 1307 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08%, and imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.13% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose to 122300 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 4.16% [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In May, China's refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 12700 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.28% [11]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose to 269000 yuan/ton, up 1.20%. The import profit and loss was - 14640.51 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports were 13449 tons, up 36.39%. SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, down 2.37% [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 61150 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis was - 2190 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72080 tons, down 2.34%. The total inventory increased by 1.49% [14].

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic data from the United States has raised concerns about the future trajectory of the US dollar, leading to a significant decline in its value and prompting a reevaluation of its status as the global reserve currency [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - The core PCE price index for May slightly exceeded expectations, rising by 0.2% month-on-month, but consumer spending fell by 0.3%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [1]. - The final GDP figure for Q1 and new home sales data released on June 25 showed weak performance, further increasing expectations for interest rate cuts [1]. - Market data indicates a 27% probability of a rate cut in July and an 84% probability in September [1]. Dollar Performance Summary - The dollar index has experienced a continuous decline, dropping below the 97 mark, the lowest level since March 2022 [1]. - Year-to-date, the dollar has fallen by 10.34%, with a decline of 4.59% over the past two months [1]. Factors Influencing Dollar Decline - The strong performance of the euro, which accounts for over 60% of the dollar index, has significantly contributed to the dollar's weakness [2]. - A historic agreement among NATO members to significantly increase defense spending is expected to inject new momentum into the European economy, further boosting the euro [2]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Germany's fiscal stimulus measures are anticipated to increase investments in infrastructure and military sectors in Europe, supporting the euro's exchange rate [2]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Despite rising calls for interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has not yet taken action, with Chairman Jerome Powell expressing concerns about inflation risks from trade wars [2][4]. - Powell's recent testimony indicated that while many paths are possible regarding rate cuts, there is no clear timeline, leading to market interpretations of a potential softening stance [4]. - Trump has publicly criticized Powell for not cutting rates, arguing that this has caused the US economy to lag behind Europe [4]. Concerns About Dollar's Reserve Status - Powell has countered concerns about the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, asserting that it remains the largest safe-haven currency globally [4]. - However, Powell has expressed worries about the unsustainable trajectory of US federal debt, which could materially damage the dollar's reserve currency status [5]. - The recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill" is projected to increase federal debt by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, reaching 125% of GDP, exacerbating the debt issue and potentially impacting the dollar's reserve status [5].