Group 1 - In October 2025, consumer spending continued to decline, with a notable increase in restaurant consumption growth, potentially driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, but sustainability remains uncertain and requires ongoing policy support [1][4][19] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in October 2025 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.1%, primarily due to the continued drag from real estate-related industries and a post-holiday production decline [1][2][5] - October saw a slight increase in inflation, supported by rising service, food, and gold prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 0.2% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a reduced year-on-year decline of 2.1% [1][4][11] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment in October 2025 showed an expanded year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all weakening, indicating that stabilization in the real estate sector requires additional policy measures [1][5][16] - Economic data for October indicates a continued weakening of the fundamentals, with consumer spending and inflation as bright spots, but their sustainability is still in question, while investment growth and real estate prices are declining rapidly [1][19][25] - The bond market is currently in a sideways trend, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8%, as the market has priced in the central bank's resumption of government bond trading and the weakening fundamentals [1][19][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main economic indicators in October 2025 showed a decline, including industrial production, fixed - asset investment, and social consumption [1][2]. - In the bond market, investors should gradually become more optimistic, with a short - to - long duration strategy for interest - rate bonds and a focus on structural opportunities for convertible bonds [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Event - On November 14, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for October 2025, including industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social consumption data [1][6]. 3.2 Economic Data Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Production - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size was 4.9%, down 1.6 percentage points from September. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.17%, the lowest of the year and lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2][6]. - The decline in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was mainly due to the decrease in the mining and manufacturing sectors, while the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased [7]. 3.2.2 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.7%, continuing the downward trend. The month - on - month growth rate in October was - 1.62%, with an expanding decline [2][14]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment all decreased. Real estate investment remained weak, and manufacturing and infrastructure investment weakened from their high levels at the beginning of the year [18]. 3.2.3 Social Consumption - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumption was 2.9%, slightly lower than the previous month. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.16%, turning positive but weaker than the seasonal average [2][21]. - Among consumer goods, the year - on - year growth rate of essential consumption increased. Among optional consumption, the decline in automobile and home appliance consumption was significant, while optional consumption such as gold, silver, and jewelry, and communication equipment still performed well. The year - on - year growth rate of catering consumption increased significantly [21]. 3.3 Bond Market View 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of treasury bonds has shown a significant divergence. The short - end yield fluctuated little, while the long - end yield first increased and then decreased. By November 13, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields had decreased by 9bp and 13bp respectively from their previous highs [3][27]. - Given the current loose liquidity, investors should be more optimistic about the bond market. The duration selection can be from short to long, and the view that the fluctuation center of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is 1.7% is maintained [3][28]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds - As of November 13, 2025, the increase and decrease of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was + 19.3%, and that of the CSI All - Index was + 25.3%. The convertible bond market underperformed the equity market. Since late October, the convertible bond market has seen a new round of growth [3][36]. - In the context of the slow - bull expectation of the equity market and the difficult - to - change pattern of strong demand over supply in the convertible bond market, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets in the long run, and more attention should be paid to the structure [36].

Credit Demand Trends - In October, new social financing (社融) increased by 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5,970 billion yuan, falling short of the market expectation of 1,528.4 billion yuan[1] - New loan issuance (金融机构口径) was 220 billion yuan, down 2,800 billion yuan year-on-year, also below the expected 460 billion yuan[1] - Both new social financing and loan data have shown negative year-on-year growth for three consecutive months, with significant deviations from expectations in October[1] Government Debt and Financing - The new government bond issuance in October was only 489.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 560.2 billion yuan, nearly matching the overall decline in new social financing[2] - The slowdown in government bond issuance is attributed to local government arrangements rather than quota issues, with potential for increased issuance in November[2] Loan and Financing Structure - New loans under the social financing category were negative at -20.1 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 3,166 billion yuan[3] - New entrusted loans and corporate bond financing were relatively strong, at 165.3 billion yuan and 246.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 187.2 billion yuan and 148.2 billion yuan[3] Consumer Loan Trends - New household loans were significantly below seasonal levels at -360.4 billion yuan, compared to a ten-year average of 290.8 billion yuan for the same period[4] - Short-term consumer loans saw a decrease of 2,866 billion yuan, indicating a decline in consumer spending willingness[5] Corporate Financing Dynamics - New corporate short-term loans were -190 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans were 30 billion yuan, both at seasonal lows[6] - Overall corporate financing demand was 558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 445.2 billion yuan, driven by various financing tools[6] Deposit Trends - New deposit growth was 610 billion yuan, with significant declines in both household and corporate deposits, at -1,340 billion yuan and -1,085.3 billion yuan respectively[7] - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, indicating a trend of "disintermediation" as funds flow back to banks through non-bank channels[7] Monetary Supply Changes - M1 growth rate fell from 7.2% to 6.2%, while M2 slightly decreased from 8.4% to 8.2%, indicating a widening gap in monetary supply metrics[8] - The decline in M1 is attributed to a significant drop in both household and corporate deposits, suggesting a potential liquidity issue[8] Market Outlook - The persistent weakness in credit demand may lead to a shift in monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated by year-end or early next year[9] - The bond market signals are becoming clearer, suggesting a more favorable environment for bond investments as monetary conditions may ease[9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's Q3 2025 monetary policy implementation report emphasizes using interest rates as an anchor and downplaying aggregate requirements, indicating that interest rate regulation will play an increasingly important role in monetary policy [1][9]. - The credit structure will be further optimized, focusing on four aspects to release consumption potential, including "five major articles" and key economic areas, science and innovation and carbon - reduction fields, inclusive small and micro enterprises, and the silver - haired economy and personal credit repair [3][12]. - Broad - spectrum interest rates are still in a downward cycle, but the decline may converge. The bond market will continue to oscillate and recover, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate (old active bond) is expected to repair to 1.6% - 1.65% by the end of the year [4][5][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate and Aggregate Policy - The central bank continues to downplay aggregate requirements in the Q3 2025 monetary policy report. As China's economic transformation progresses, a slowdown in financial aggregate growth is reasonable and in line with regulatory acceptance. The traditional monetary system may not fully reflect the real situation, so the monetary policy regulation framework should be transformed to focus more on price - based regulation [1][9]. - The central bank emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate ratio relationship. Although there were deviations in various interest rate ratios last year, they have improved significantly this year. Regulatory measures such as rectifying manual interest supplements, standardizing deposit pricing, and constraining loan interest rates have played important roles. Bank deposit costs decreased by 25.5BP in the first half of this year, and the term spread has returned to normal [2][10]. 2. Credit Structure Optimization - Credit structure optimization will focus on four aspects: developing science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance to support key national strategies and weak economic links; optimizing and using monetary policy tools for science and innovation and carbon - reduction, and promoting financial institutions' participation in the carbon market; guiding the reasonable growth of inclusive small and micro loans and private economy loans to support county - level economic development; and building a multi - level pension finance system, supporting the silver - haired economy, and implementing policies to support personal credit repair to release consumption potential [3][12]. 3. Interest Rate Trend - In Q3, the weighted average RMB loan interest rate decreased by 5bp to 3.24%, with general loan rates down 2bp to 3.67%, corporate loan rates down 8bp to 3.14%, personal housing loan rates unchanged at 3.06%, and bill rates down 13bp to 1.14%. The central bank aims to drive down the comprehensive social financing cost and keep social financing conditions relatively loose. Broad - spectrum interest rates are expected to continue to decline, but the decline may converge [4][14]. 4. Bond Market Outlook - The monetary policy implementation report emphasizes using interest rates as an anchor and downplaying aggregate requirements. Bond interest rates should move in tandem with broad - spectrum interest rates. With the decline in aggregate demand, the asset supply rhythm may slow down, increasing the pressure of asset shortage. The bond market will continue to oscillate and recover, and interest rates are expected to decline more smoothly in the second half of Q4. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate (old active bond) is expected to repair to 1.6% - 1.65% by the end of the year [5][16]. 5. Analysis of the Real Economy - In the first three quarters of this year, China's economy continued its steady - progress development trend, with GDP growing by 5.2% year - on - year. Positive factors include the continuous improvement of the national economic cycle, the accelerated development of new drivers, good production and supply momentum, expanding total demand, and more active macro - policies. However, the external environment is more complex and severe, and there are still risks such as insufficient domestic effective demand [18][19][20]. 6. Next - Stage Monetary Policy Measures - **Monetary Policy Direction**: Implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain reasonable growth of financial aggregates, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment. Strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments according to economic and financial situations [28]. - **Credit Policy Orientation**: Give full play to the guiding role of credit policies, support key areas such as science and innovation, green development, inclusive small and micro enterprises, and the silver - haired economy, and promote consumption and the stable development of the real estate market [29][30]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: Promote interest rate and exchange rate marketization reforms, balance internal and external equilibrium, guide the decline of social comprehensive financing costs, and maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [31][32]. - **Financial Reform and Opening - up**: Accelerate the construction of the bond market's "science and technology board", support private enterprise bond financing, and promote the high - quality development of the panda bond market. Promote the internationalization of the RMB and improve the level of capital account opening [33]. - **Financial Risk Prevention**: Build a comprehensive macro - prudential management system and a financial risk prevention and disposal mechanism, strengthen the supervision of system - important financial institutions, and promote the reform and risk resolution of small and medium - sized financial institutions [34].

Report Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y Treasury bond to 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond to 1.9% (all referring to non - VAT bonds) by the end of the year [24]. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the wealth management scale increased more than seasonally, with the total scale reaching 33.6 trillion yuan at the end of October, up 3.7 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year and 1.5 trillion yuan from the end of the previous month [3][6]. - The average monthly annualized yield of pure fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies significantly rebounded in October. The average performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies has been declining since the beginning of 2022, and the lower limit may reach 2.0% in the future [3]. - The interest - bearing liability cost rate of A - share listed banks has declined rapidly in the past two years. It is expected to fall below 1.60% in Q4 2025, and the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year by year in the next three to five years, supporting the downward trend of bond yields [3]. - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. Factors such as high equity positions of institutions like annuities, rapid decline in bank liability costs, loose liquidity, and seasonal patterns are expected to support the bond market [3]. Summary by Directory 10 - month Wealth Management Scale - As of the end of October 2025, the wealth management scale reached 33.6 trillion yuan, hitting a historical high. The increase in October was 1.5 trillion yuan, higher than the average increase of 0.87 trillion yuan from 2021 - 2024. Even with a strong stock market in Q3 2025, the wealth management scale increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, higher than the same period from 2022 - 2024 [6][7][9]. Fixed - income Wealth Management Yield in October 2025 - The performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products has been declining since 2022. In October 2025, the upper limit was 2.61% and the lower limit was 2.13%, and the lower limit may drop to around 2.0% in the future [12][17]. - The average 7 - day annualized yield of cash - management wealth management products was 1.26% as of November 9, 2025, and that of money market funds was 1.11%. The yield of cash - management products was stable at a low level in October [13][15]. - The fixed - income wealth management yield significantly rebounded in October. The average monthly annualized yield of pure fixed - income wealth management products was 3.53% in October, up from 2.15% in September [18]. Investment Advice - The interest - bearing liability cost rate of A - share listed banks decreased to 1.63% in Q3 2025, and it is expected to fall below 1.60% in Q4 2025. In the next three to five years, the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year by year, supporting the downward trend of bond yields [19]. - Given high equity positions of institutions like annuities, rapid decline in bank liability costs, loose liquidity, and expected policy rate cuts, the report is bullish on the bond market. Wealth management products may increase their allocation of credit bonds with a remaining maturity of 3 years or less and long - term industrial and urban investment bonds [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core View of the Report - In October 2025, CPI turned positive year-on-year for the first time this year, and PPI increased 0.1% month-on-month. Core CPI continued to rise, potentially driven by the "Investing in People" policy, supported by both service and industrial consumer prices. The drag from food and energy weakened. The prices of upstream extraction and processing and key manufacturing industries for capacity management in PPI stabilized and rebounded, with marginal improvement in the supply-demand relationship. The low-price environment continued to improve, but due to the holiday demand in October, the transmission from industrial products to consumer goods needed further observation. Prices were expected to continue a mild improvement, but the bond market had already priced in price expectations to a certain extent, so the impact of prices on the bond market within the year might be limited. The yield of the active 10-year Treasury bond (tax-free) was expected to decline to 1.65%-1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond to 1.7%-1.75% [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Event Description - In October 2025, CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, higher than the consensus forecast of -0.05%. Core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for the sixth consecutive month. PPI increased 0.1% month-on-month, turning from flat in the previous month, and decreased 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, higher than the consensus forecast of -2.3% [6]. Event Review - **Core CPI Continued to Rise**: In October, core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, reaching a new high since March 2024. Service prices increased 0.8% year-on-year, with travel-related consumption strong and tourism prices rising 2.5% month-on-month above the seasonal level. Medical and household service prices rose 2.4% and 2.3% year-on-year respectively. Industrial consumer goods (excluding energy) prices continued to improve, rising 2.0% year-on-year. With the government emphasizing "Investing in People" policies, core CPI might maintain its resilience [10]. - **Food and Energy Drag Weakened, CPI Turned Positive Year-on-Year**: In October, CPI turned positive year-on-year to 0.2%, rising 0.2% month-on-month slightly above the seasonal level. Food prices decreased 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase stronger than the seasonal level. Energy prices decreased 2.4% year-on-year, and the drag on the overall CPI weakened compared to the previous month [10]. - **PPI Turned Positive Month-on-Month, Upstream and Key Manufacturing Prices Rebounded**: In October, PPI increased 0.1% month-on-month, the first positive growth this year, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1%, improving for the third consecutive month. Production material prices stabilized, with coal, non-ferrous metals and other upstream industries showing obvious price rebounds. Under the promotion of key industry capacity management, the year-on-year decline in prices of photovoltaic equipment, battery manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing narrowed [10]. - **High - end Manufacturing Showed Resilience, but Downstream Pressure Remained**: The prices of computer整机 manufacturing, lithium - ion battery manufacturing, and integrated circuit manufacturing all turned from decline to increase month-on-month. However, the prices of consumer durables and clothing remained weak, and traditional chemical and non-metallic product industries were still under pressure due to factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the adjustment of the real estate market [10]. - **Low - price Environment Improved, but Transmission Needed Observation**: The improvement in October data was partly driven by the temporary demand during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays. Prices were expected to continue a mild improvement within the year. The bond market had already priced in price expectations to a certain extent, so the impact of prices on the bond market within the year might be limited [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond futures market has shown a slight upward trend after a period of weak fluctuations, driven primarily by institutional behavior and sentiment rather than fundamental economic factors [1][2][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a net purchase of 20 billion yuan in government bonds on November 4, which has positively impacted market expectations and supported the bond market [2] - Economic indicators show a mild recovery, with October CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI has turned positive for the first time this year, indicating a gradual price recovery [2][3] Group 2 - Export data for October shows signs of weakness, with a clear trend of marginal slowdown expected in November and December, necessitating strong policy support for domestic demand [3] - The overall economic growth pressure is manageable, with a GDP growth rate of 5.2% for the first three quarters, leading to expectations of continued policy implementation without the necessity for interest rate cuts [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to a combination of reasonable liquidity support and the influence of a strong equity market, which may constrain bond market performance [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market had a weak and volatile performance with a flattened and upward - shifted yield curve. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, leading to some profit - taking. Rumors about the new public bond fund redemption fee rules and the stock market's rebound also affected the bond market. The short - end yield increased more than the long - end, narrowing the term spread [3][4]. - This week (the week of November 10), the bond market is expected to have a warm - biased and volatile performance. The increasing economic downward pressure in the fourth quarter, reduced supply pressure, and institutional pre - emptive allocation support bond - buying. However, the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is not high, and the stock market's resilience and the unannounced new public redemption fee rules limit the bond - buying space. The release of October's financial and economic data may affect the bond market's volatility direction, and it is expected that the year - on - year growth rates of major economic indicators in October may decline compared to September, supporting the bond market's warm - biased volatility [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market adjusted last week, with the long - term bond yield rising significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures' main contract fell 0.20% cumulatively. On November 8, the 10 - year treasury bond yield rose 1.88bp, and the 1 - year treasury bond yield rose 2.19bp compared to the previous Friday, narrowing the term spread [4]. - From November 3 to 7, the bond market showed different trends each day. On November 4, the central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and on November 6 and 7, rumors about the new redemption fee rules affected the bond market [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 57 interest - rate bonds were issued, 53 less than the previous week. The issuance volume was 514 billion yuan, an increase of 101.3 billion yuan, and the net financing was 288.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.6 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of treasury bonds increased, while those of local government bonds and policy - bank financial bonds decreased [11]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was acceptable. The average subscription multiples for treasury bonds, policy - bank financial bonds, and local government bonds were 3.53, 3.77, and 21.98 times respectively [12]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In October, the year - on - year export growth rate turned negative. The export value decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, 9.4 percentage points lower than in September. The import value increased by 1.0% year - on - year, 6.4 percentage points lower than in September [13]. - In October, the CPI turned positive year - on - year, rising 0.2%. The PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The CPI's positive turn was due to factors such as rising vegetable and service prices, and the PPI's narrowing decline was related to improved industry supply - demand and rising commodity prices [13]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency production - end data increased, including the blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum asphalt plant operating rate. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline [15]. - In terms of demand, the BDI index and the CCFI increased, while the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly. In terms of prices, pork prices rose, and most commodity prices fell [15]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from the open market last week through reverse repurchase operations [26]. - Last week, R007 and DR007 both decreased, the joint - stock bank inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate continued to decline, the national - share direct discount rate for each term increased significantly, the volume of pledged repurchase increased significantly, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased overall [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may be desensitized to weak foreign trade data, while strong inflation data may boost inflation expectations and suppress bond market performance. In the short - term, the bond market may operate weakly and stably due to lack of incremental positive factors [5]. - It is expected that the bond market will be weak first and then stable next week [5]. - For strategies, in the short - term, a defensive approach with a wait - and - see attitude is recommended for unilateral trading. For arbitrage, try to go long on the current - next quarter inter - period spread and hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Data Analysis - **Foreign Trade**: In October, China's export amount decreased by 1.1% year - on - year and import amount increased by 1.0% year - on - year, both falling short of expectations. The negative export growth was related to a high base last year and trade disputes in October [9]. - **Inflation**: In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and month - on - month. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, better than expected. PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month, also better than expected [20][25]. - **Market Liquidity**: This week, the central bank net withdrew 15722 billion yuan of short - term liquidity, but the market funds were balanced and loose. Next week, government bond issuance will increase, with a net payment scale of about 3691.83 billion yuan, but the impact on funds is expected to be controllable [31][36]. 3.1.2 Futures Market Analysis - **Valuation**: The next - quarter contracts are generally over - valued compared to the current - quarter contracts, and the T contract IRR is also high compared to market funds. The IRR of TL, T, TF, TS current - quarter contracts are 1.4099%, 1.8770%, 1.6519%, 1.6209% respectively; the next - quarter contracts are 1.6357%, 1.8782%, 1.6831%, 1.7064% respectively [38][42]. - **Position Transfer**: As of Friday, the position transfer progress of TS, TF, T, TL contracts were 17.0%, 18.3%, 18.4%, 27.8% respectively. It is expected to accelerate next week, and may drive the inter - period spread to widen [47]. 3.2 Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on the trading volume and open interest of TS, TF, T, TL contracts are provided [52]. - **Contract Spreads**: Data on the spreads between TS, TF, T, TL contracts are provided [55]. - **Yield and Spread**: Data on the yield of treasury bond cash bonds and the term spread of treasury bond yields are provided, as well as data on the US 10 - year treasury bond yield and the Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond spread [57][59]. - **Exchange Rate**: Data on the US dollar index and the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate are provided [61].

Market Overview - The overall funding environment was loose last week, with slight increases in bond yields and a decline in government bond futures [1][5] - As of November 7, the 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.81%, up 0.42 basis points from the previous Thursday and up 1.45 basis points from the previous week [1][2] - The market's expectation for bond purchases by the central bank was somewhat overstated, leading to a weaker bond market after the actual implementation [1][2] Bond Market Performance - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield showing mixed performance throughout the week, ending at 1.81% [2][5] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.86% over the week, with significant trading volume of 3,426 billion yuan [4] - The issuance of local bonds decreased significantly, with a total of 916.07 billion yuan issued, down 1,790.75 billion yuan from the previous week [8] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a total of 4,958 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos last week, with a net withdrawal of funds [12][14] - The central bank resumed government bond trading, injecting 200 billion yuan into the banking system, which was lower than market expectations but still significant [13][20] Credit Market Activity - A total of 448 credit bonds were issued last week, with a total scale of 5,079.87 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 1,377.19 billion yuan from the previous week [9] - The issuance of financial bonds amounted to 1,270.70 billion yuan, while corporate bonds and medium-term notes also saw significant issuance [9] International Market Insights - In the U.S., the consumer confidence index fell to 50.3, indicating economic concerns, while the labor market showed mixed signals with job growth slightly above expectations [15][26] - European bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year German bond yield rising by 4.6 basis points over the week [17] - Japanese investors reduced their holdings of overseas bonds while increasing their investments in domestic bonds [19]