Key Points - Local bond issuance has accelerated at the beginning of the year, with over 2.5 trillion yuan planned for the first quarter, marking a three-year high. This includes approximately 764.4 billion yuan in new special bonds and about 1.2106 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds, highlighting the dual goals of proactive fiscal policy and coordinated debt management to stabilize growth [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 130 billion yuan of book-entry interest-bearing government bonds with a coupon rate of 1.66%, with the competitive bidding scheduled for February 10, 2026 [2] - Henan Province has completed its first batch of local bond issuance for 2026, totaling 804.72 billion yuan, which includes 35 billion yuan in new general bonds for infrastructure projects and 485.61 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [3] - In 2025, enterprises in Henan Province reported a total profit of 149.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 9%. State-owned enterprises saw a profit drop of 23.7%, while non-state enterprises experienced a slight increase of 1.1% [5] - The 2026 work report from Hubei Province emphasizes the importance of asset securitization through "listing and bond issuance" to address innovation development challenges [7] - The 2026 work report from Jiangxi Province highlights efforts to mitigate local government debt risks and prevent new hidden debts, with a focus on the exit of remaining local government financing platforms [9] - Several companies, including Henan Investment Group and Luoyang Urban Development Investment Group, have successfully issued bonds with varying amounts and interest rates, aimed at refinancing existing debts [11][13][14] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has terminated the review of three bond projects, totaling 2.5 billion yuan, indicating potential challenges in the private bond market [18] - Market analysis suggests that recent improvements in the real estate sector may lead to adjustments in bond market expectations, with a focus on the stability of property transactions and pricing in the coming months [20][21]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strong fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to 4102.20 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%. However, the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index fell by 0.40% and 0.98% respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 25,033 billion yuan, a decrease of 624 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Over 3,200 stocks in the market rose, indicating a neutral to weak risk appetite. Small-cap stocks underperformed large-cap stocks, and growth stocks lagged behind value stocks [1] Commodity and ETF Performance - The Coal ETF (515220) surged by 9.07%, while the Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF (510720) rose by 4.29%. This was driven by news that Indonesian officials announced a suspension of spot coal exports, reducing production quotas significantly [3][15] - The Gold ETF (518800) increased by 4.24%, with international spot gold maintaining above the $5,000 mark. The rebound in precious metals was attributed to heightened geopolitical risks and technical corrections after previous declines [2][13] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, have reignited market concerns about potential conflicts, contributing to a flight to safety in gold [2][13] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with expectations that political pressures may influence the newly nominated Fed chair to support interest rate cuts [2][13] Seasonal Trends and Transportation Sector - The transportation sector saw activity with the Transportation ETF (561320) rising by 3.10%. The Spring Festival travel rush is expected to set records, with anticipated passenger volumes reaching historical highs [19] - The Civil Aviation Administration forecasts that during the Spring Festival, the total passenger transport volume could reach 95 million, with an average of 19,400 flights per day, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [19] Debt Market Insights - The bond market has experienced a slow upward trend, with the 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) showing slight fluctuations. Short-term interest rates may have room to decline, but a narrow trading range is expected in the medium to long term [21][24] - The current monetary policy remains neutral, aiming to protect bank net interest margins and maintain a stable exchange rate, which is favorable for conservative investment strategies in the bond market [24]

新华财经北京2月4日电（王菁）债市周三（2月4日）小幅走弱，国债期货主力全线收跌，银行间现券表 现较期债稍稳，午后超长债收益率有所上行、其他期限品种多数窄幅波动；公开市场单日净回笼3025亿 元，短端资金利率延续回升。 机构认为，资金面整体平稳，跨月后需求端压力暂时不大。就近期现券表现来看，股市震荡后收益率变 动不大，但股市上涨施压影响却相对明显，显示债券自身定力一般。当下债市重新回到缺少方向的状 态，如果没有新的刺激，春节前料以震荡为主。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.23%报111.7，10年期主力合约跌0.01%报108.24，5年期主 力合约跌0.04%报105.85，2年期主力合约跌0.02%报102.398。 银行间主要利率债延续盘整、表现小幅分化，截至发稿，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.05BP报 1.957%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率上行0.15BP报1.8125%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收 益率上行0.25BP报2.251%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.04%，报521.27，成交金额849.68亿元。奥飞转债、鼎捷转债、耐 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent economic indicators, particularly the manufacturing PMI, have shown a decline, suggesting a cautious outlook for the manufacturing sector and potential implications for the bond market [2][3]. - The official manufacturing PMI for January recorded 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing demand [2][3]. - The production index remains in the expansion zone at 50.6%, but the new orders index fell to 49.2%, reflecting a decrease in demand [2][3]. Group 2 - The price indices show a mixed picture, with the raw material purchase price index rising to 56.1%, indicating increased costs, while the factory price index rose to 50.6%, suggesting limited price transmission from raw materials to finished goods [2][3]. - The inventory management of manufacturing firms appears cautious, with raw material inventory index at 47.4% and finished goods inventory index at 48.6%, indicating a proactive reduction in raw materials and a passive accumulation of finished goods [2][3]. - The funding environment remains loose, with the central bank maintaining a supportive liquidity stance, and the interbank market showing a balanced liquidity condition [4][5]. Group 3 - The bond market is expected to experience limited downward movement in the short to medium term due to the current economic fundamentals and the central bank's liquidity support [5]. - The anticipated large-scale government bond supply and the upcoming seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival may lead to a cautious sentiment in the bond market [4][5]. - Overall, the combination of weaker PMI data, a loose funding environment, and increased volatility in risk assets is seen as favorable for the bond market, although caution is advised due to potential seasonal fluctuations [4][5].

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 0 billion, 439.3 billion, and 185 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -113.3 billion, 310.9 billion, and 183 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) had a total issuance scale of 71.8 billion, with a net financing amount of 52.6 billion. Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 294.5 billion, with a net financing amount of 149.8 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The sentiment in the bond market continues to recover, with the yield on 10-year government bonds approaching 1.8%. Key influencing factors include institutional behavior, real estate policies, and stock market volatility [2] - The liquidity situation is tightening due to accelerated local bond issuance and month-end disturbances, with R001 and R007 rising by 4.3 basis points and 10.4 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [2][8] Policy and Fundamentals - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded 49.3, indicating a further decline in economic sentiment. High-frequency data shows stable performance on the production side at the beginning of the year, slight improvement in real estate demand, and price differentiation in food and a pullback in the prices of non-ferrous metals [3][9] Overseas Market - President Trump announced the nomination of hawkish member Kevin Walsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds closed at 4.26%, up 2 basis points from the previous week [4][10] Equity Market - Last week, A-shares experienced a pullback after reaching a peak, with the total A-share index down by 1.59%. There was sector divergence, with military, automotive, and computer sectors leading the decline, while the non-ferrous sector fell sharply after extreme trading conditions. The average daily trading volume increased to 3.06 trillion, up by 264.3 billion from the previous week. As of January 29, 2026, the total financing balance for all A-shares was 27,221.87 billion, an increase of 14.679 billion from January 22 [5][11] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - In February, the short-term downward space for bond market yields may be limited as the 10-year government bond approaches the lower range of 1.8-1.9%. There is expected to be an increase in profit-taking demand. The supply-demand dynamics in the bond market are anticipated to change, with local bond issuance accelerating again. Seasonal tightening pressure on liquidity before the Spring Festival remains a concern. Overall, the bond market's supply-demand performance at the beginning of 2026 is better than previously expected, with insufficient social credit demand and a slowdown in government bond supply growth. The banking sector's stabilization supports high demand for bond allocation, particularly in the long end, which is under less pressure than previously judged at the end of last year. The bond market is expected to show high certainty in the short and medium term, with long-end fluctuations. Potential directional changes should focus on external inflation transmission and real estate stabilization. There are slightly positive signals in real estate in January, but sustainability remains to be observed in the spring. The PPI for non-ferrous and energy prices shows a trend of rapid recovery [6][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.61, up 0.49 (+0.50%); The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9411, down 0.011 (-0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.01%); DR007 was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.40%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, unchanged (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, unchanged (+0.00%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury and Treasury Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the trends and proportions related to the treasury futures market, including the closing prices, price changes, precipitation of funds, positions, and net positions of various treasury futures varieties [13][14][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local government bond issuance, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, and the yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [24][27][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows the trends of inter - period spreads of various treasury futures varieties and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads through multiple charts [34][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Futures The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][45]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [47][55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Futures The report offers charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate declines, the prices of treasury futures oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Group 1: Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of combining short-term and long-term strategies to effectively promote development and improve people's livelihoods during his research in Shandong [2] - The Central Committee and the State Council approved the "Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Coordination Plan (2023-2035)", which aims to enhance the capital's functions and promote high-quality regional development [2] Group 2: International News - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January in the U.S. rose significantly from 47.9 to 52.6, surpassing expectations of 48.5, indicating robust growth in new orders and production [5] - A trade agreement between the U.S. and India was reached, reducing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, with India agreeing to lower its tariffs on U.S. products [6] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 4.71% to $62.14 per barrel and Brent crude down 4.36% to $66.30 per barrel [7] Group 4: Financial Market - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 750 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan due to 1,505 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [8] - The money market remained stable, with the DR001 rate rising by 3.65 basis points to 1.364% and the DR007 rate falling by 10.2 basis points to 1.491% [9] Group 5: Bond Market - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.8150% [9] - In the credit bond market, significant price deviations were noted, with "H0 Zhongjun 02" dropping over 72% and "H1 Bidi 03" dropping over 56% [11] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices falling by 2.39% to 2.31%, and a total trading volume of 850.83 billion yuan, down 81.89 billion yuan from the previous trading day [14]

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40% on February 2, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan for the day [3][4]. - The interbank market remains stable, with the weighted average rate of DR001 rising over 3 basis points to approximately 1.36% [5][6]. - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) traded around 1.60%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7][8]. Bond Market - The yield on major interbank bonds showed mixed movements, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.18%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell by 0.03% and 0.02%, respectively [12]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 300 billion yuan in 28-day discount treasury bonds on February 3 [17]. - Agricultural Development Bank will issue up to 100 billion yuan in financial bonds on February 3 [17]. Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced new tax deduction measures for long-term assets, effective from January 1, 2026 [13]. - The central government approved a spatial coordination plan for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban system, aiming to enhance the capital's influence and optimize urban structure [13]. Risk Monitoring - Recent non-standard asset risks in urban investment include several defaults and risk alerts related to various investment plans and trust products [19].

作者 分析师 瞿瑞 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 债市偏强震荡，收益率曲线延续平坦化 ——利率债周报（2026.1.26-2026.2.1） 核心观点 ·· 一、上周债市回顾 1. 二级市场 上周债市偏强震荡，长债收益率继续下行。全周看，10 年期国债期货 主力合约累计上涨 0.10%；上周五 10 年期国债收益率较前一周五下行 1.86bp，1 年期国债收益率较前一周五上行 1.80bp，期限利差继续收窄。 1 www.dfratings.com ·· 1 月 26 日：周一，受资金面未见明显缓和，叠加商品市场表现强劲 影响，债市整体震荡盘整。当日银行间主要利率债收益率多数上行， 但 10 年期国债收益率下行 0.56bp；国债期货各期限主力合约收盘多 数下跌，10 年期主力合约跌 0.02%。 1 月 27 日：周二，股市午后翻红，股债跷跷板效应显现，债市震荡 调整。当日银行间主要利率债收益率普遍上行，10 年期国债收益率 上行 0.69bp；国债期货各期限主力合约收盘多数持平，其中，10 年 期主力合约持平。 1 月 28 日：周三，受央行可能推出新型隔夜工具投放流动性的传闻 提振，债市震荡回暖 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the liquidity in the market remains ample, supported by recent central bank operations and upcoming government bond issuances [1][2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue a total of 1,520 billion yuan in government bonds on February 6, 2026, including a 1-year fixed-rate bond of 1,200 billion yuan and a 30-year fixed-rate bond of 320 billion yuan [1] - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on February 2, 2026, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan for the day [1] Group 2 - The 30-year government bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds with a remaining maturity of 25-30 years [2] - The central bank's recent 9,000 billion yuan MLF operation on January 23, 2026, indicates a clear signal of maintaining ample liquidity, with expectations for further policy easing [2]