Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 11, 2025 [1] - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. The current good profit situation of steel mills and high molten iron production provide support for ferroalloy demand. In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automobile industries for steel depends on policy stimulus. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. The anti - involution trading sentiment has faded, but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The logic of ferroalloys lies in the price of coking coal, with large short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to lightly test long positions after a pullback [4] Summary by Content Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon is in the range of 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. The monthly price forecast for ferromanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a recommended entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventories, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] 利多 Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferromanganese industry. This week, the demand for silicon iron in five major steel products was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. The silicon iron warehouse receipt inventory was 9.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.89%, and the total inventory was 17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% [5][7] - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products was 12.52 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The enterprise inventory was 16.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%, the warehouse receipt was 38.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%, and the total inventory was 54.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region was - 98.14 yuan/ton (+70.51), and in the southern region was - 425.86 yuan/ton (+85.56) [8] 利空 Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly production start - up rate of silicon iron production enterprises was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly output was 10.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The enterprise inventory was 7.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area was - 49 yuan/ton (-134), and in the Ningxia production area was 48 yuan/ton (-234) [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, so the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. The weekly production start - up rate of silicon manganese production enterprises was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly output was 19.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [8] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 11, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 22, the 01 - 05 spread was - 98, the 05 - 09 spread was 284, the 09 - 01 spread was - 186. The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5600, 5550, 5600, 5600, and 5500 respectively. The prices of semi - coke small materials, Qinhuangdao thermal coal, and Yulin thermal coal were 595, 682, and 570 respectively. The warehouse receipt was 19646 [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: On August 8, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 104, the 01 - 05 spread was - 40, the 05 - 09 spread was 138, the 09 - 01 spread was - 98, and the double - silicon spread was - 274. The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5850, 5800, 5850, 5870, and 5830 respectively. The prices of Tianjin Australian ore, Tianjin South African ore, Tianjin Gabonese ore, Qinzhou South African ore, Qinzhou Gabonese ore, and Inner Mongolia chemical coke were 40.7, 35, 40.2, 37.8, 40.5, and 1110 respectively. The warehouse receipt was 76045 [9][10] Seasonal Data - The report also provides seasonal data on the market prices, basis, and futures spreads of silicon iron and silicon manganese, as well as the seasonal data of total silicon iron inventory and silicon manganese inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The equity market continues to rise, with a positive attitude towards the subsequent market in August. One can continue to hold IM long - positions in stock index futures. In stock index options, it is recommended to continue holding covered positions and guard against small - cap corrections. For treasury bond futures, the market is still digesting the Politburo meeting news, and the short - end may perform better in the future, with a relatively high odds of steepening the yield curve in the medium term [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The small - cap style is strong. The basis, spreads, and total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have different changes. The market shows that small - caps are stronger than large - caps, with multiple industry themes rising. Several market signals are worthy of attention, and the short - term market trend can be more positive. It is recommended to hold IM [7] Stock Index Options - The strategy is to use covered positions while guarding against small - and medium - cap corrections. The underlying market rose across the board, and the option market liquidity is relatively stable. The sentiment indicators show that the seller has a strong expectation of an upward trend, and there is some caution towards small - and medium - caps. Volatility fluctuates, and it is recommended to continue the covered position strategy and reduce the directional exposure on the small - cap side in the short term [8] Treasury Bond Futures - The market is continuing to digest the Politburo meeting information. The treasury bond futures rose, and the long - end of the treasury bond cash bonds performed better than the short - end. The short - term bond market sentiment has recovered, but in the medium term, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Different strategies are recommended for different trading purposes [9][10] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic data of the United States, China, and Europe in the current week are presented, including indicators such as the US factory orders, ISM non - manufacturing PMI, China's trade balance, and the UK central bank benchmark interest rate [11] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - In transportation, relevant departments have issued a plan to innovate the investment and financing model for rural roads. In the non - banking financial sector, Shanghai has introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of commercial health insurance. In the industrial Internet field, Hubei has made progress in the digital transformation of industrial enterprises [12][13] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - Data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are to be monitored, but specific data details are not fully provided in the given content [14][18][30]

过去一周，随着国内外宏观因素尘埃落定，螺纹钢以及黑色系其他品种走出一轮冲高回落行情，波动幅 度明显放大。螺纹钢主力合约上周初虽创下了本轮反弹的新高点，但最终上周累计下跌了4.56%，周内 振幅达到5.9%。 去年8月，钢厂在淡季加大了检修力度，叠加当时生产利润恶化，螺纹钢产量自8月起加速回落。今年暂 时未出现大范围减产，但京津冀及周边区域后续限产预期正在走强。同时，当前螺纹钢库存拐点虽已出 现，但淡季累库幅度较小，截至上周，总库存同比下降约28%，处于近年同期低点。以上两点成为多头 继续看好螺纹钢价格表现的基本面支撑。在当前稳就业、保民生的大背景下，预计不会出现"一刀切"式 限产，而是根据钢厂环保绩效等级实施差异化减产，且近年京津冀及周边钢厂环保绩效评级普遍提高， 因此需注意限产实际影响可能低于预期的情况。此外，随着本轮钢价较强反弹，螺纹钢长流程生产利润 回升至200元/吨以上，主流地区平电亏损显著缩小，谷电生产已恢复盈利。若无行政性限产干预，螺纹 钢产量恐难重现去年同期自发减产、显著下降的情形。 套保企业积极进场 本轮螺纹钢价格在需求淡季的偏强反弹，主要驱动因素来自预期层面。在基本面并无显著矛盾的情况 下， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing and demand weakening, and its price faces pressure [4]. - Urea is in a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The current price is not high, and the continued decline space is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost to fluctuate upward [14]. - Polyethylene price will be determined by the game between cost and supply in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - Polypropylene price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July, with cost leading the market [18]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil can be focused on [21]. - PTA is expected to continue accumulating inventory, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamental situation will change from strong to weak, and its short - term valuation has downward pressure [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.07, or 1.62%, to $65.17; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.00, or 1.46%, to $67.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 5.50 yuan, or 1.07%, to 508.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.30 million barrels, a 6.32% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.55 million barrels to 1.89 million barrels, a 22.58% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.98 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, an 11.24% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.86 million barrels to 18.90 million barrels, a 4.78% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side corporate profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand - side port olefins are shut down, and it is the traditional demand off - season, so the overall demand is weak. Port inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously declining [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 39 yuan/ton to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 12 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Corporate profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually increase. Demand - side export docking is less than expected, domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season, and compound fertilizer production for autumn fertilizers has started, with enterprises actively building inventories and finished product inventories further increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Industrial products rose collectively. NR and RU rebounded significantly after a decline [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Tire factory start - up rates decreased month - on - month. As of July 30, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up load was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.4% increase month - on - month [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 61 yuan to 5042 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 152 (- 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05% month - on - month. The demand - side overall downstream start - up rate was 42.1%, up 0.2% month - on - month. Factory inventories were 34.5 tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 tons (+3.9). The enterprise's comprehensive profit has risen to a high point this year, the maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. The domestic downstream start - up rate is at a five - year low, and India's anti - dumping policy has been extended [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both declined, and the basis weakened [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost - side support still exists, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period and has a large upward repair space. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the styrene start - up rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall start - up rate has fluctuated and increased during the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7323 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 83 yuan/ton, weakening 44 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost - side support still exists. The trade - inventory is oscillating at a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. There is a large production capacity release pressure in August, with a planned production capacity release of 1.1 million tons [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 30 yuan/ton, weakening 21 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has declined seasonally. There is only a planned production capacity release of 450,000 tons in August. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the cost will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 20 yuan to 6734 yuan, the PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 839 dollars, and the basis was 167 yuan (+25), with the 9 - 1 spread at 28 yuan (+2) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the short - term maintenance of downstream PTA has increased, with the overall load center declining, which suppresses the valuation rhythm. However, the current PTA inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season, so the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. Recently, new PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4682 yuan, the East China spot price fell 30 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 19 yuan (- 4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (- 6) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side maintenance has increased in August, but new plants have been put into operation, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure has decreased, and downstream and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season. The valuation is currently at a neutral level [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4399 yuan, the East China spot price rose 8 yuan to 4463 yuan, the basis was 79 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 27 (+1) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side ethylene glycol start - up rate was 68.6%, down 0.7% month - on - month. The downstream start - up rate was 88.1%, down 0.6% month - on - month. Import arrival forecasts are 138,000 tons, and port inventories decreased by 500 tons. The overseas device load is at a high level, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase, with inventories rising from a low level. The short - term valuation has downward pressure [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, credit bonds may be mostly volatile, with more opportunities than risks, and credit buying is relatively active. The "anti - involution" policy has returned to rationality, and the stock market may consolidate in August, which is conducive to the restoration of bond market sentiment. However, there are still volatile factors in the bond market in the future. The buying demand is expected to be relatively strong due to the upcoming reduction of insurance product preset interest rates and the new VAT regulations [27]. - After the previous adjustment, the spreads of general - purpose credit bonds still have room to narrow, and it is recommended to focus on general - purpose credit bonds with high - grade and good liquidity, as well as credit bond ETF component bonds. Second - tier and perpetual bonds should focus on the VAT exemption opportunities of old bonds [28][29]. 3. Summary by Directory Credit Hotspots: Review and Outlook of the Current Round of Credit Bond Adjustment - **Adjustment and Repair Process**: From July 18 - 29, credit bonds had an overall correction, with second - tier and perpetual bonds having the largest correction, followed by 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y general - purpose credit bonds. From July 29 - August 1, short - and medium - term second - tier and perpetual bonds repaired first, followed by high - grade 5Y and 10Y general - purpose credit bonds [1][13]. - **Institutional Behavior**: From July 21 - 29, funds sold a large amount of credit bonds, while wealth management and insurance increased their positions. Since the repair, institutional buying has been active, and the short - term redemption wave has basically subsided. Before the reduction of insurance product preset interest rates on August 31, the buying may continue [17]. - **Credit Bond ETF**: From July 18 - 29, the prices of credit bond ETFs declined, and the scale of benchmark - making credit bond ETFs decreased, while most of the science - innovation bond ETFs increased. During the repair period, credit bond ETFs recovered. The component bonds of credit bond ETFs had a larger decline during the adjustment and a smaller recovery than non - component bonds, but the difference was not significant [18]. Market Review: Cooling of "Anti - Involution" Trading, Comprehensive Repair of Credit Bonds - From July 25 to August 1, after the Politburo meeting, the "anti - involution" trading sentiment cooled, the impact of the equity market on the bond market weakened, and the bond market recovered. The yields of most credit bonds declined, with short - and medium - term yields down about 3BP, and medium - and long - term spreads up about 2BP passively. The yields of second - tier and perpetual bonds generally declined significantly, with 3 - 5Y varieties down more than 5BP, and spreads down about 2BP. Buying recovered, with wealth management net buying 199.1 billion yuan and funds net buying 94.62 billion yuan. The scale of credit bond ETFs was 3337 billion yuan, up 1.26% from the previous week. Industry spreads of most AAA - rated public bonds and provincial urban investment bonds declined, with Guizhou's spreads down more than 6BP [3]. Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Corporate Credit Bonds Soars, Average Issuance Interest Rates Fluctuate - From July 28 to August 1, corporate credit bonds issued a total of 217.4 billion yuan, a 33% decrease from the previous period; financial credit bonds issued a total of 31.4 billion yuan, an 86% decrease. Corporate credit bonds had a net financing of 51.6 billion yuan, a 84% increase, with urban investment bonds having a net repayment of 6.6 billion yuan and industrial bonds having a net financing of 48.2 billion yuan. Financial credit bonds had a net financing of 6.9 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rates of medium - and short - term notes fluctuated, and the average issuance interest rates of corporate bonds showed a downward trend except for AA - rated bonds [4][62]. Secondary Trading: Active Trading in Short - and Medium - Duration Bonds, Decline in Long - Duration Trading - Active trading entities are mainly high - grade, short - and medium - term, and central and state - owned enterprises. Urban investment bonds are mainly from strong economic provinces' high - grade platforms and high - spread areas in large economic provinces. Real - estate bonds and private - enterprise bonds are mainly AAA - rated, with short - and medium - term trading durations. There was no trading of urban investment bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years, a decline from the previous week [5][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon (SI): Oscillatory [10] - Polysilicon (PS): Oscillatory [12] - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Bearish [91] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with short - term prices expected to oscillate due to factors such as factory resumption and demand changes in downstream industries [10]. - Polysilicon production increases due to the resumption of large - scale southwest production capacity, and downstream silicon wafer production schedules increase slightly. Short - term prices may oscillate, and future capacity clearance is expected to accelerate [12]. - The market sentiment for lithium carbonate has ebbed, and supply - side disturbances have been resolved. With limited demand growth and inventory transfer rather than consumption by end - users, short - term prices are expected to be weak [91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US dollar index is at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, up 1.04% weekly, and down 9.03% annually. Exchange rates, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel all show different price changes [7]. - **New Energy Metals**: Industrial silicon is at 8,500 yuan/ton, down 2.97% daily, 12.60% weekly, and 22.62% annually. Lithium carbonate is at 68,920 yuan/ton, up 0.94% daily, down 14.41% weekly, and down 10.61% annually [7]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 78,600 tons, up 4.59% week - on - week. Main production areas like Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia all show different degrees of production increases [10]. - **Demand**: In the polysilicon sector, weekly production is 27,700 tons, up 13.44% week - on - week, with inventory accumulation. In the organic silicon sector, DMC weekly production is 47,800 tons, up 4.82% week - on - week [10]. - **Inventory**: Explicit inventory is 696,600 tons, up 0.49% week - on - week, and industry inventory is 444,000 tons, up 0.25% week - on - week [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,109 yuan, down 0.14% week - on - week, and the profit per ton is 96 yuan, down 221 yuan/ton week - on - week [10]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 27,700 tons, up 13.44% week - on - week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Yunnan. 7 - month production is 106,300 tons, up 5.10% month - on - month, and 8 - month production schedule is 106,800 tons, up 5.74% month - on - month [12]. - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 11.84GW, up 4.78% week - on - week, with inventory reduction [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 275,800 tons, up 0.15% week - on - week [12]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,333 yuan, down 0.63% week - on - week, and the profit per ton is 3,417 yuan, up 379 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 17,300 tons, down 7.31% week - on - week. Different production methods (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake) show different production trends [91]. - **Imports**: In June, lithium carbonate imports were 17,000 tons, down 16.31% month - on - month, and lithium concentrate imports were 427,600 tons, down 17.25% month - on - month [91]. - **Demand**: In the lithium iron phosphate system, material weekly production is 69,200 tons, down 0.87% week - on - week. In the ternary system, material weekly production is 16,100 tons, up 1.07% week - on - week [91]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 141,700 tons, down 1.01% week - on - week. Warehouse receipt inventory is 6,600 tons, down 43.32% week - on - week [91]. - **Cost and Profit**: For lithium extraction from purchased ores, the cash production cost of lithium mica is 76,215 yuan/ton, up 2.96% week - on - week, and the production profit is - 7,136 yuan/ton, down 1,088 yuan/ton week - on - week [91].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in commodity prices, economic indicators for July, and the implications of rising tariffs in the U.S. on international trade dynamics. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - In July, commodity futures prices surged due to expectations of reduced competition, with polysilicon leading the price increase, followed by glass and coking coal [2] - However, in the last week of July, the trading activity cooled significantly due to policy guidance, resulting in sharp declines in previously rising commodities such as coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and glass, which fell by 21.2%, 13.7%, 12.2%, respectively [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators for July - The PMI for July decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3, indicating a decline in economic activity compared to June [4] - The estimated PPI growth rate for July is around -3.3%, while the CPI year-on-year is approximately -0.2% [5] - Exports are expected to maintain resilience, with a projected growth rate of around 4% for July [6] - Retail sales growth is anticipated to be around 4.6%, reflecting a slight decline in the "trade-in" program [7] - Industrial output is expected to show a year-on-year increase of about 5.8% [7] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 2.8%, with real estate sales showing weak sentiment [8] - Social financing is expected to rise to approximately 9.1% in July, supported by government bonds [9] Group 3: U.S. Tariff Increases - On July 31, the White House announced an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariff" rates for certain countries, effective August 7, with Canada’s tariffs effective August 1 [10] - The new tariff structure includes a minimum rate of 10% for allied countries, a 15% rate for countries with small trade surpluses with the U.S., and higher rates for major trading partners like Canada and Mexico, which face tariffs of 35% and 25%, respectively [10][12] - Compared to the existing rates in May, the upcoming reciprocal tariffs represent a significant increase, which may shift traders from exporting to inventory management [12] Group 4: Government Debt Issuance - In July, government bond issuance slightly decreased, with a total issuance of 2.4 trillion yuan and net financing of 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 632.2 billion yuan year-on-year [12] - As of the end of July 2025, the net financing scale of government bonds reached 9.0 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 65.3% [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution trading has ended, leading to a decline in alumina futures prices. The domestic alumina supply has turned into a slight surplus with the resumption of production and the release of new production capacity. After the end of the emotional trading, the futures price is expected to continue the oscillatory and weak trend [1][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Due to frequent rainfall in the north and the influence of the rainy season and typhoons in the south, the mining and shipping efficiency of domestic ores were affected. The shipment decline of Guinea in July will impact the supply in August, September, and October. Some mines are in the process of resuming production. The new - arrived ore during the period was 3.07 million tons, and the freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The market was in a wait - and - see mood, and downstream enterprises were resistant to high prices. The domestic alumina supply remained at a high level, with a production capacity of 113.02 million tons, a running capacity of 94.75 million tons (a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week), and an operating rate of 83.8% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increasing by 15,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas demand remained unchanged [14] - **Inventory**: As of July 31, the national alumina inventory was 3.243 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from last week. The inventory structure changed due to factors such as railway freight reduction and increased shipments [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,615 tons, a decrease of 307 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - On July 30, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in East Australia at an FOB price of $373.7 per ton [16] - On July 30, 300 tons of spot alumina were traded in Shanxi at an ex - factory price of 3,400 yuan per ton [16] - On July 28, the winning bid price of a regular alumina tender by an aluminum plant in Xinjiang was between 3,520 - 3,580 yuan per ton, an increase of 90 - 150 yuan per ton from last week [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost End**: The data includes domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, etc., with data sources mainly from Shanghai Steel Union and the Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [17][20][21] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina. The data sources are Shanghai Steel Union, Wind, and the Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [34][36][40] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It covers electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, etc. The data sources are mainly from Aladdin and the Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [43][46][48]

Group 1: Commodity Market Trends - In July, commodity futures prices surged significantly, with polysilicon leading the trend, rising by 15.5% in the second week[4] - By the last week of July, the "anti-involution" trading cooled down, leading to declines in previously surging commodities, with coking coal, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon dropping by 21.2%, 13.7%, and 12.2% respectively[4][5] - Glass prices increased by 26.2% in the third week but fell by 11.6% in the last week of July[5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The PMI for July decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, indicating a decline in economic sentiment compared to June[6] - PPI is estimated to have a year-on-year growth rate of approximately -3.3%, slightly better than June's -3.6%[6] - Retail sales growth is projected to be around 4.6%, while industrial added value is expected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year[6][7] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - The upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" set to take effect in August will significantly increase compared to May's rates, impacting trade dynamics[10][11] - The highest tariff rate of 10% will apply to allies, while countries like Canada and Mexico will face tariffs of 35% and 25% respectively[9][11] - China's exports to the U.S. are expected to decline due to high tariffs, with overall export growth stabilizing at around 4.3%[6][10] Group 4: Government Debt and Financing - In July, government bond issuance slightly decreased to 2.4 trillion yuan from 2.8 trillion yuan, with net financing of 1.25 trillion yuan[12] - The cumulative net financing scale of government bonds reached 9.0 trillion yuan by the end of July, with an issuance progress of 65.3% for the year[12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the sentiment in the bond market improved marginally. Looking ahead to next week, the overall liquidity will be balanced, and the equity market lacks catalysts for speculation, creating a favorable environment for the bond market. However, after the policy of levying VAT on treasury bond interest was announced, the bond market is expected to rise first and then fall [14]. - In the short term, the policy may cause price differentiation between new and old bond issues. In the long term, it is negative for the bond market as it reduces the attractiveness of treasury bond coupons, diverts funds to riskier assets, and requires new bonds to offer higher coupon rates [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From July 28 to August 3, treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. As of August 1, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts were 102.352, 105.730, 108.450, and 119.090 yuan, up 0.026, 0.145, 0.255, and 0.970 yuan respectively from the previous weekend [13]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Outlook - The market is expected to rise first and then fall due to the policy of taxing treasury bond interest. It is recommended that trading positions gradually withdraw from long positions, consider short - hedging strategies for long - term bonds, and construct steepening curve strategies such as 10Y - 1Y if risk appetite is strong after key time points [2][16][19]. 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 92 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 6724.35 billion yuan and a net financing of 5532.57 billion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds increased slightly, while that of local government bonds decreased, and the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [17][19][20]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of August 1, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.42%, 1.57%, 1.71%, and 1.95% respectively, down 1.29, 5.66, 3.17, and 3.70 basis points from the previous weekend [25]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 40590, 71737, 88205, and 156603 contracts respectively, with changes of - 6031, - 10064, - 14010, and + 366 contracts from the previous weekend. The open interests were 111227, 195029, 232880, and 160133 contracts respectively, with changes of - 7224, - 12580, - 6104, and + 3518 contracts from the previous weekend [34][37]. 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The basis of futures generally fluctuated within a narrow range, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%. The current certificate of deposit rate is between 1.5% - 1.6%, so there are relatively few opportunities for cash - and - carry strategies [41]. 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Product Spreads - As of August 1, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2509 - 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.042, - 0.055, + 0.025, and + 0.270 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.040, + 0.005, + 0.040, and + 0.050 yuan from the previous weekend [44][46]. 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Liquidity Situation - This week, the central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 69 billion yuan. Interest rates such as DR007 and R007 declined slightly, and the average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased [49][51][53]. 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened, and the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds declined. As of August 1, the US dollar index rose 1.04% to 98.6900, and the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds was 4.23%, down 17 basis points from the previous weekend [58]. 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices fell across the board, and agricultural product prices mostly declined. As of August 1, the Southern China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3680.14, 6362.56, and 1713.91 points respectively, down 143.52, 231.91, and 74.12 points from the previous weekend [62]. 3.7 Investment Recommendations - It is expected that the market will rise first and then fall next week. Trading positions are advised to gradually withdraw from long positions, pay attention to short - hedging strategies for long - term bonds, and consider constructing steepening curve strategies after key time points [2][16][19].