1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the macro - positive factors faded, and steel pricing reverted to fundamentals. Supply is affected by iron - water production cuts, but profit rebounds may slow down the cut - off speed. Demand is seasonally weak due to shrinking real - estate steel use and construction restrictions, and new export regulations suppress export expectations. The overall trend of steel is oscillating weakly [3]. - After macro - events, the trading logic of iron ore has returned to fundamentals. With restrained shipments from major mines, falling freight rates, low steel - mill inventories, and high coking - coal production and inventory, the downside of iron - ore prices is limited [21]. - For coking coal, supply changes are limited, but steel - mill profit pressure leads to iron - water production cuts. Coking enterprises control procurement, and mine inventory pressure is increasing, so short - term coal prices will be under pressure. For coke, production has declined slightly due to environmental protection. After two rounds of price cuts, if there is no policy intervention, coke supply - demand may deteriorate, and prices may continue to fall [31]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, but news from relevant departments has led to a price rebound. However, price increases may stimulate enterprises to hedge, suppressing prices [46]. - With the strengthening of new - capacity production expectations, the over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying. Glass cold - repair is accelerating, weakening the rigid - demand expectation. Although exports are high, high upper - and middle - stream inventories restrict prices [60]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, affecting far - month pricing. Near - month contracts will follow the delivery logic, and currently, high intermediate inventories and off - season demand create pressure on spot prices [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed minor fluctuations compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3095 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed slightly. The rebar 01 - 05 month - spread was 11 yuan/ton on December 17, up 2 yuan from the previous day [4]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices and Basis - On December 17, 2025, the summary prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed little change. The summary price of rebar in China was 3299 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day [9]. - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions was mostly negative or showed a downward trend. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was not available on December 17, while it was 190 yuan/ton the previous day [9]. 3.1.3 Other Ratios - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on December 17, 2025, compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 [18]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Futures Prices and Basis - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of iron - ore contracts increased slightly compared to the previous day. The 01 contract closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [22]. - The basis of iron - ore contracts decreased. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [22]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data - From November 14 to December 12, 2025, the average daily iron - water production decreased by 7.68 tons, the 45 - port shipping volume decreased by 7.76 tons, and the global shipment volume increased by 76.1 tons [25]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 3.3.1 Futures Spreads and Ratios - On December 17, 2025, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 162.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day [34]. - The coking profit on the disk was 21 yuan/ton, up 17.353 yuan from the previous day [34]. 3.3.2 Spot Prices and Profits - On December 17, 2025, the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions mostly remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [37]. - The immediate coking profit was 21 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [37]. 3.4 Ferroalloys 3.4.1 Silicon Iron - On December 17, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 76 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan from the previous day. The silicon - iron 01 - 05 month - spread was - 62 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [47]. - The silicon - iron spot prices in different regions showed minor changes. The silicon - iron spot price in Ningxia was 5220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day [47]. 3.4.2 Silicon Manganese - On December 17, 2025, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 132 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan from the previous day. The silicon - manganese 01 - 05 month - spread was - 60 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [48]. - The silicon - manganese spot prices in different regions were mostly stable or increased slightly. The silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [48]. 3.5 Soda Ash 3.5.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the soda - ash 05 contract was 1170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - spread (9 - 1) was 94 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day [61]. - The basis of soda ash in different regions decreased. The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was - 27 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan from the previous day [61]. 3.5.2 Spot Prices - On December 17, 2025, the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were mostly stable. The heavy - alkali market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [61]. 3.6 Glass 3.6.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1038 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - spread (9 - 1) was 176 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [84]. - The basis of the glass 01 contract in different regions increased. The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 68 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day [84]. 3.6.2 Sales and Production - From December 5 - 12, 2025, the glass sales - to - production ratios in different regions fluctuated. The Shahe sales - to - production ratio on December 12 was 59% [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the macro - positive factors faded, and pricing returned to fundamentals. Steel supply is reducing, but the recovery of steel mill profits may slow down the reduction speed. Demand is seasonally weak, and steel exports are expected to tighten. Steel inventories show different trends, with short - term prices fluctuating weakly [3]. - After macro events, trading logic returned to fundamentals. Iron ore supply from major mines is restricted, and steel mills have a need to replenish inventory. Iron ore demand is seasonally declining but is expected to rebound in January. Falling coking coal prices provide support, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - Coking coal supply has limited marginal changes, but due to pressure on steel mill profits and unexpected reduction in hot metal production, coking coal supply exceeds demand. Coke production decreased slightly last week due to environmental restrictions. With the decline in coking coal costs, coke prices are likely to continue to fall [31]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, but news from the SASAC and the National Development and Reform Commission led to a price rebound today. However, price increases may stimulate enterprises to hedge and suppress prices [47]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity expectations, the expectation of soda ash oversupply is intensifying. The acceleration of glass cold - repair weakens the demand for soda ash. Although exports are high, high inventories restrict prices [65]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold - repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Near - term contracts will follow the delivery logic, and currently, high intermediate inventories and weak end - market demand put pressure on spot prices [88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3090, 3081, and 3112 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3254, 3246, and 3255 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The rebar spot prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were 3295, 3280, 3120, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the hot - rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and Shenyang were 3270, 3260, and 3180 yuan/ton respectively [9][11]. Ratio and Spread Data - The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 [18]. - The 01, 05, and 10 roll - to - rebar spreads were 164, 165, and 143 yuan/ton respectively, and the roll - to - rebar spot spreads in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenyang were - 10, 210, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [15]. Iron Ore Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 783.5, 761, and 739.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 01, 05, and 09 basis were 1, 25, and 46.5 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - The prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 779, 856, and 666 yuan/ton respectively [22]. Fundamental Data - The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons, 45 - port throughput was 319.19 tons, and the apparent demand for five major steel products was 840 tons [25]. - Global shipments were 3592.5 tons, Australia - Brazil shipments were 2889.3 tons, and 45 - port arrivals were 2723.4 tons [25]. - The 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8834.2 tons [25]. Coal and Coke Price Data - The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 170.5, - 76.5, and - 94 yuan/ton respectively, and those of coke were 234, - 78.5, and - 155.5 yuan/ton respectively [35]. - The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [38]. Ratio and Profit Data - The main mine - to - coke ratio was 0.503, the main rebar - to - coke ratio was 2.034, and the main coke - to - coal ratio was 1.524 [35]. - The on - the - spot coking profit was 21 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian coal import profit (long - term agreement) was 213 yuan/ton [38]. Ferroalloys Price Data - The silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 18 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 154 yuan/ton [48][49]. - The spot prices of silicon - iron in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai were 5250, 5280, and 5200 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot prices of silicon - manganese in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou were 5490, 5540, and 5550 yuan/ton respectively [48][49]. Cost and Inventory Data - The price of semi - coke small materials was 800 yuan/ton, and the price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 737 yuan/ton [48]. - The silicon - iron warehouse receipts were 13068, and the silicon - manganese warehouse receipts were 25032 [48][50]. Soda Ash Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1170, 1221, and 1133 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 51, 88, and - 37 yuan/ton respectively [66]. - The heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and East China were 1300, 1400, and 1250 yuan/ton respectively [66]. Fundamental Data - In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, maintaining a high level [65]. - The upper - and middle - stream inventories were generally high, restricting soda ash prices [65]. Glass Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1038, 1117, and 946 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 79, 171, and - 92 yuan/ton respectively [89]. - The 01 - contract basis in Shahe and Hubei was 64 and 140 yuan/ton respectively [89]. Sales and Production Data - On December 12, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 59, 90, 89, and 102 respectively [90].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience a short - term weak adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the competition at the 116,000 - yuan mark. The Philippines is in the rainy season, leading to a decline in nickel ore imports. The potential variables of Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes have limited impact on supply recently. The supply of the pure nickel market is under great pressure, while the demand side shows positive trends. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing, and the technical side shows a bearish atmosphere [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan; the 01 - 02 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,675 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 106,302 lots, an increase of 3,719 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 18,301 lots, an increase of 3,129 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,092 tons, an increase of 564 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 42,508 tons, an increase of 1,726 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,390 tons, an increase of 336 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 33,939 tons, a decrease of 296 tons [2]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 2,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 192.16 US dollars/ton, down 1.7 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 tons, a decrease of 143.17 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,469.71 tons, a decrease of 17.62 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.29 million metal tons, an increase of 0.12 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 90.51 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 3.73 tons, and the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.53 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects to cut interest rates once next year and will buy short - term bonds worth 40 billion US dollars. Powell said that the bond - buying scale may remain at a high level in the next few months, the labor market is gradually cooling but slower than expected, and it can wait patiently at the current interest rate, and the impact of tariffs is expected to gradually subside next year. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened. Hassett said that Trump will make a final decision on the candidate for the Fed chairman in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects short - term strong adjustment of Shanghai Tin, with a focus on the range of 315,000 - 325,000 yuan/ton. The macro - situation includes the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, and the supply side has a relatively tight domestic tin ore import supply. The demand side shows that downstream has purchasing willingness when tin prices decline, but high prices suppress transactions. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin futures main contract is 320,600 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 40,010 dollars/ton, up 160 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 42,785 lots, down 4,714 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 430 lots, down 1,183 lots. LME tin's total inventory is 3,655 tons, up 605 tons, and the cancelled warrants are 165 tons, down 95 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stock of tin is 6,865 tons (weekly), up 506 tons, and the warehouse receipts are 7,024 tons (daily), down 127 tons. [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 320,000 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 320,770 yuan/ton, up 3,630 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 9,610 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 30 dollars/ton, down 11 dollars. [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 308,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan, with a processing fee of 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 312,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan, with a processing fee of 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 205,370 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 124.54 million tons, up 13.61 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, up 2.5 million tons. [3] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with three voting members opposing. It is still expected to cut rates once next year and will buy short - term bonds worth 40 billion dollars. China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly expanded. Hassett said Trump would make a final decision on the Fed chairman candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation shows that the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed. It still expects one more rate cut next year and will buy $40 billion in short - term bonds. The impact of tariffs is expected to gradually subside next year. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have declined due to the worsening internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates. Domestic refineries' raw material winter reserves have started, with a preference for domestic zinc concentrates. Refinery profits have shrunk, and production is expected to drop significantly. Overseas supply remains tight, and China is expected to turn into a net exporter, easing domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector being a drag, while the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are weakening, and there are some bright spots in the automotive sector. The zinc price has corrected recently, the trading atmosphere has improved, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly, and the LME zinc inventory has rebounded. Technically, the price has corrected with shrinking volume and reduced positions, and the bullish sentiment has declined. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo high - level adjustments, and attention should be paid to the battle at the 23,000 yuan/ton mark [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,995 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,075 dollars/ton, down 14 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 200,606 lots, down 2,682 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 10,858 lots, down 1,296 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 91,916 tons, down 4,000 tons, and the LME inventory is 59,800 tons, up 1,650 tons [2] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,110 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,060 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 115 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is 158.52 dollars/ton, down 4.47 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,710 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, up 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons, down 26,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [2] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons, and the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 132,500 tons, down 1,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, up 36.6239 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, up 52,000 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 12.87%, down 1.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 12.93%, down 1.32 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.61%, down 0.21 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.85%, down 0.08 percentage points [2] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed. It still expects one more rate cut next year and will buy $40 billion in short - term bonds. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline in PPI slightly widened. Hassett said that Trump will make a final decision on the Fed chairman candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of pulp are not optimistic, with a loose supply - demand situation for wood pulp and a record - high warehouse receipt out - flow. However, the pulp price is at a relatively low valuation level and may be oversold [3]. - The pulp price is affected by multiple factors. From a cyclical perspective, it may be close to the support level; from the international oil price perspective, the stabilization of oil price provides some support; and the large - scale warehouse receipt cancellation and out - flow also indicate a low - valuation situation [3]. - The consumption structure is favorable for broad - leaf pulp, and there is a possibility that the broad - leaf pulp is undervalued, and the balance sheet data supports the strengthening of the spread between broad - leaf and coniferous pulp [38][46]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Fundamentals - **Upstream**: Wood chip costs are declining, such as the fall in CME wood futures settlement prices, the decrease in the Russian wood products business confidence index, the increase in coniferous wood chip imports, and the decline in the import value index of wood chips and wood pellets [3]. - **Downstream**: The inventory of finished paper is piling up. In March, the inventory of finished products in the domestic paper industry increased month - on - month to 76.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%, and it has been increasing monthly for 12 consecutive months. In March, the inventory - to - sales ratio of US paper product wholesalers rose to 1.06% month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, and it has been rising monthly for 10 consecutive months [3]. 3.2 Valuation and Cycle - In the 7 - year cycle, in the first year (1990, 1997, 2004, 2011, 2018, 2025), the pulp price changes from year - on - year increase to year - on - year decrease, and the decline is generally no more than - 23%. Currently, the pulp price has a year - on - year decline of - 19%, which is close to the low - valuation level and may be oversold [3]. - The pulp price seems to have good regularity in the first three years of the seven - year cycle. According to this rule, the support level of the pulp price in 2025 is around a year - on - year decline of - 23%, and currently, the SP has reached a year - on - year decline of - 20%, close to the support level [13]. 3.3 Factors Affecting SP Single - Side - **Wood Chip Cost**: From May to now, the average closing price of the near - month CME wood futures is 545 US dollars per thousand board feet, a year - on - year increase of + 6.4%, with 9 consecutive months of marginal decline, which is negative for SP single - side [14]. - **Russian Wood Products Business Confidence Index**: In April, the index was - 10 points, a month - on - month decline, hitting a new low since September 2023, a year - on - year decline of - 13 points, with 11 consecutive months of marginal decline, negative for SP single - side [16]. - **Import Volume**: In March, the imported volume of coniferous pulp increased by 906,000 tons month - on - month, the imported volume of coniferous wood chips decreased by 9,000 tons month - on - month, and the total converted wood pulp volume was 910,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 6.2%, with 2 consecutive months of marginal increase, negative for SP single - side [18]. - **Import Value Index of Wood Chips or Wood Pellets**: In March, the index was 102.8 points, a month - on - month increase, a year - on - year decrease of - 3.5%, with both month - on - month and year - on - year increases, slightly positive for SP single - side [21]. - **Profit of the Paper Industry**: In March, the cumulative profit of the domestic paper industry declined by - 16.9%, with profits deteriorating for 6 consecutive months, negative for SP single - side [22]. - **Inventory of Finished Products in the Paper Industry**: In March, the inventory of finished products in the domestic paper industry was 76.45 billion yuan, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of + 4.5%, with 12 consecutive months of marginal increase, negative for SP single - side [24]. - **International Crude Oil Price**: In April, the price was 65.9 US dollars per barrel, a month - on - month and year - on - year decline, hitting the largest decline since August 2023, with 3 consecutive months of month - on - month and year - on - year decline, negative for SP single - side [26]. - **Inventory - to - Sales Ratio of US Paper Product Wholesalers**: In March, the ratio was 1.06%, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of + 5.8%, with 10 consecutive months of marginal increase, negative for SP single - side [28]. 3.4 Paper Production and Pulp Consumption - In April, domestic double - offset paper production was 832,000 tons, copperplate paper production was 334,000 tons, white cardboard production was 1.32 million tons, and tissue paper production was 1.258 million tons. The consumption of broad - leaf pulp was 2.27 million tons, and the consumption of coniferous pulp was 538,000 tons. The consumption ratio of broad - leaf to coniferous pulp in domestic finished paper was 4.22 times, a year - on - year increase of + 7.5%, with 5 consecutive months of marginal increase [38]. 3.5 Balance Sheet Data - **Supply**: In March, the import of non - coniferous wood chips was 1.492 million tons, broad - leaf pulp was 1.47 million tons, coniferous wood chips was 9,000 tons, and coniferous pulp was 906,000 tons. The ratio of broad - leaf fiber to coniferous fiber was 2.43 times, a year - on - year increase of + 21.8%, with the growth rate of broad - leaf fiber slowing down for 2 consecutive months [47]. - **Inventory**: In April, the social inventory of four ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin) was 2.047 million tons, and the total inventory of the SHFE SP contract was 346,000 tons. The ratio of the two was 5.91 times, a year - on - year increase of + 26.9%. The relatively slow inventory accumulation of broad - leaf pulp is positive for the spread between broad - leaf and coniferous pulp [47]. - **Consumption**: In March, the consumption of coniferous pulp in Europe was 273,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons, with 4 consecutive months of marginal decrease, which is relatively negative for coniferous pulp consumption and positive for the spread between broad - leaf and coniferous pulp [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, which is expected to improve global liquidity in the short - term and boost risk assets. A - shares may have short - term upward opportunities, but high - level chasing should be treated with caution [3]. - The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed its peak, and the bond futures may return to a sideways trend in the short - term. There is a possibility of a phased rebound in the bond market later, and investors are advised to wait and see for now [3]. - Precious metals have increased fluctuations, and short - term gold prices need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Daily Selected Views - **Bullish**: Tin (SN2601) is expected to be sideways with an upward bias; Methanol (MA2601) and rebar (rb2501) are expected to be sideways with an upward bias at the bottom [3]. - **Bearish**: Corn (C2601) is expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3]. 3.2 All - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, short - term global liquidity expectations will improve, and A - shares have short - term upward opportunities. It is recommended to go long intraday but be cautious about high - level chasing, and consider using protective options or bull spread strategies [3]. - **Bond Futures**: The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed, and bond futures may return to a sideways trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference. Positive arbitrage opportunities between TL and TF2603 contracts can be gradually considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are fluctuating in the range of $4150 - 4260 and need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion after a rapid rise. It is recommended to use a virtual option double - selling strategy for gold and be cautious about chasing high prices for silver [3]. 3.2.2 Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices have stopped falling and are expected to continue to move sideways. Iron ore is expected to weaken from its high - level sideways movement, and coking coal and coke are also expected to be bearish [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, long - term long positions can be held. Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate decision, and it is recommended to take profits for previous long positions and then go long again. For other non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are provided according to their respective fundamentals [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Polysilicon futures are rising, while industrial silicon prices are falling. PX has support at low levels, while PTA and short - fiber are expected to be weak in the short - term. Different trading strategies are recommended for various chemical products based on their supply - demand situations [3]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is expected to be sideways with a downward bias, while soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move in a narrow range. Palm oil has broken through support levels, and its main contract is testing the support at 8500 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to be sideways with an upward bias in the short - term due to pickling demand [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar is expected to move sideways at the bottom, cotton is expected to be sideways with an upward bias, and eggs are expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3].

黑色建材日报 2025-12-08 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.56%）。当日注册仓单 44141 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 147.4541 万手，环比增加 62636 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3320 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.36%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体上涨，截止到收盘，回到4.2星，距离4.3星比较近。 大中小盘股都上涨。 小微盘股上涨多一些。 前几天强势的价值风格略微下跌。 成长风格整体上涨。科创、创业板领涨。 港股略微下跌。 恒生红利等下跌，恒生科技略微上涨。 1. 有朋友问，牛市中后期，有什么信号，代表牛市可能到尾声或者结束呢？ 如果想要精准的卖在牛市最高点，这个很难做到。 2. 不过在牛市中后期，有一些值得关注的、标志性的信号。 （1）一是市场的估值情况。 例如市场整体到了3点几星，那低估品种就没多少了。 像2021年牛市高位的时候，估值表里一个绿色低估的品种都没有。 2015年牛市高点也是如此。 其实每一轮牛市，时间长短、上涨幅度都不一样。 我们也很难预测市场的短期涨跌。 螺丝钉也汇总了关于港股指数的估值，供参考，见文章下方图片。 （2）二是资金面情况。 最近一年多A股港股的上涨，也是受益于资金面的宽松。 美元从2024年9月进入降息周期；咱们的存款、贷款利率也下降。 因为资金面的宽松带来的上涨，也会因为流动性收紧，导致短期下跌。 在5点几星，绿色低估品种一抓一大把。 4点几星，还有一些低估品种 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.71%. In the process of position transfer, the trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the fundamentals are fair under the situation of weak supply and demand. Inventory continued to decline, but demand weakened seasonally. The actual situation remains weak, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.27%. In the process of position transfer, the trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coils remains high, while the demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore rebounded after hitting the bottom with a daily decline of 0.19%. The trading volume increased while the open interest decreased. Currently, short - term positive factors have supported the iron ore price to fluctuate higher, but the demand for iron ore has weakened, and the supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on November 28, chaired by General Secretary Xi Jinping, to review the comprehensive report on the 20th Central Inspection of provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) [7]. - The Chongqing Municipal Government issued the Action Plan for the Comprehensive Reform Pilot of Factor Market Allocation, proposing to optimize the mechanism for revitalizing existing land, support the use of special bonds to repurchase eligible idle land, and carry out pilot projects for the renewal of industrial and commercial land use rights [8]. - Australian mining company Akora Resources submitted an application to convert the exploration license of its wholly - owned Bekisopa iron ore project in Madagascar into a mining license. The project has an inferred resource of 194.7 million tons and can produce high - grade iron concentrate with an iron content of over 68% [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai is 3,220, in Tianjin is 3,210, and the national average price is 3,291. The price changes are 10, 10, and 3 respectively [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai is 3,290, in Tianjin is 3,220, and the national average price is 3,317. The price changes are 0, - 10, and - 3 respectively [10]. - Tangshan steel billet: The spot price is 2,970 with a price change of 0 [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The spot price is 2,080 with a price change of 0 [10]. - Other: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 797 with a change of - 2; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 808 with a change of 0; the freight from Australia is 11.12 with a change of 0.39, and from Brazil is 24.71 with a change of 0.07; the SGX swap (current month) is 104.90 with a change of 0.00; the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 107.45 with a change of 0.10 [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract is 3,110 with a daily increase of 0.71%. The highest price is 3,113, the lowest price is 3,084, the trading volume is 680,875 with a decrease of 72,377, and the open interest is 972,278 with a decrease of 97,339 [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract is 3,302 with a daily increase of 0.27%. The highest price is 3,305, the lowest price is 3,285, the trading volume is 314,400 with a decrease of 64,833, and the open interest is 785,392 with a decrease of 90,927 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract is 794.0 with a daily decrease of 0.19%. The highest price is 798.0, the lowest price is 786.0, the trading volume is 252,881 with an increase of 53,230, and the open interest is 390,978 with a decrease of 23,368 [14]. 后市研判 (Future Outlook) - Rebar: The supply and demand have both weakened. The production of construction steel mills has declined, with the weekly output of rebar decreasing by 1.88 tons. The supply has shrunk slightly, but the profit of short - process steel mills has improved, and the sustainability of production reduction needs to be monitored. At the same time, the demand for rebar has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing slightly. The high - frequency daily trading volume has stabilized, but both remain at the low level in recent years, and the downstream industry is weak. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally, dragging down the steel price. In general, under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are fair, inventory continues to decline, but the demand weakens seasonally, and the actual situation remains weak. The steel price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventory reduction is limited. The production of plate steel mills has stabilized, with the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increasing by 3.00 tons. The supply has reached a high level, and the inventory level is high, with relatively large pressure. At the same time, the demand for hot - rolled coils has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 4.20 tons, but it is still at a relatively high level. It is worth noting that the contradictions in the downstream cold - rolling industry remain unresolved, and the improvement in external demand is limited, so the demand resilience is likely to weaken. In general, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils remains high, while the demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to be weak. The production of steel mills has declined, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has continued to decline. This week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills have decreased again. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, and coupled with production restrictions, the demand for iron ore will continue to weaken, which is likely to drag down the iron ore price. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly. Although the shipments of overseas miners have declined, they are still at a high level this year. The supply of overseas ore is active, and the domestic ore production has stabilized. The iron ore supply remains high. In general, short - term positive factors have supported the iron ore price to fluctuate higher, but the demand for iron ore has weakened, and the supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [38].