Group 1 - The report from Itaú BBA predicts a 5% decrease in sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-southern region for the 2025/26 season, amounting to 590 million tons, with significant declines in the western and northwestern parts of São Paulo state [1] - Despite the decrease in crushing volume, sugar production is expected to increase by 2.7% to 41.2 million tons, with a sugar-to-cane ratio of 52% and an ATR (Total Recoverable Sugar) of 141 kg/ton [1] - Current spot prices for sugar in China show an increase, with Guangxi Sugar Group reporting prices between 6000 - 6080 yuan/ton, up by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices remain stable at 5790 - 5830 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The cotton market is experiencing upward movement, with ICE cotton prices rising by 0.78% to 68.32 cents per pound, and domestic cotton prices in Xinjiang increasing by 65 yuan/ton to 14832 yuan/ton [1] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% for two consecutive days, and cotton prices in Zhengzhou breaking through 13600 yuan/ton due to low commercial inventories and weather disturbances in Xinjiang [1] - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of improvement, with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a slight strengthening of cotton prices, although the fundamental drivers remain limited [1]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250622: Macro and fundamental factors are intertwined, and copper will remain volatile in the short term [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro and fundamental factors are intertwined, and copper will remain volatile in the short term [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Warehouse receipts are flowing out, and the premium of copper spot is under pressure [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium continued to strengthen week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.03/ton week - on - week to - $44.78/ton, still negative [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at nine ports decreased by 100,700 tons week - on - week to 712,100 tons [17] - The week - on - week change of the refined - scrap copper price difference was limited [20] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in June is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [22] - Copper imports still remain in an inverted state [24] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory increased [25] - The LME copper inventory decreased again, while the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [27] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week but fell short of expectations. Terminal demand was weak, and the finished product inventory of refined copper rods increased [30] - From June 1st to 15th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 38% year - on - year [33] - Domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decline in June [34] - The "trade - in" national subsidy will continue, and 138 billion yuan of central funds will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [36] Macroeconomic Data - China's social financing in May increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed [40] - The US CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling below expectations for the fourth consecutive month [42] - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, expecting two interest rate cuts this year and hinting at an increased risk of stagflation [43]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, while the bond market is showing signs of recovery, indicating an improvement in market sentiment [1] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The yield on 10-year government bonds has decreased from a high of 1.73% on May 27 to 1.64% by June 18, marking a decline of 9 basis points [2] - The 30-year government bond futures have risen from a low of 118.64 yuan on May 29 to a high of 120.93 yuan by June 18, an increase of over 2 yuan [3] - The China Bond New Comprehensive Wealth Index (1-3 years) reached a historical high of 228.49 points as of June 18, the highest since its launch on January 4, 2002 [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Expectations - The overall bond market is expected to perform well in 2024, with the China Bond Net Price Comprehensive Index rising by 4.55% [7] - The bond market has experienced five rounds of upward trends since the beginning of the year, with the latest round starting from May 27 [8] - The current market conditions suggest a potential for continued upward movement, with the possibility of breaking through previous resistance levels [8] Group 3: Influencing Factors - The funding environment remains balanced and slightly loose, which is favorable for the bond market [9] - The central bank has shifted its stance from tightening to a more accommodative approach, which is expected to support liquidity in the bond market [9][10] - The basic economic conditions are not expected to pose significant risks to the bond market, with export growth and retail sales providing some support [12] - Policy measures indicate an opening for monetary easing, which could further benefit the bond market [13]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has released hawkish signals, impacting market sentiment towards gold [1] - Gold has failed to break free from its oscillating market conditions, indicating ongoing volatility [1] - The futures market is being analyzed for potential strategies to position ahead of upcoming trends in gold and oil [1] Group 2 - A senior futures researcher is providing in-depth analysis of the current market landscape [1] - The focus includes forward-looking assessments of the fundamentals of gold, oil, and other commodities [1]

Market Overview - The convertible bond market experienced narrow fluctuations during the week of June 9 to June 13, 2025, with the China Convertible Bond Index showing a change of 0% (previous week +1.1%) and the China All Share Index declining by 0.4% [3] - Year-to-date, the China Convertible Bond Index has increased by 4.7%, while the China All Share Index has risen by 1.3%, indicating that the convertible bond market has outperformed the equity market [3] Performance by Rating and Size - High-rated bonds (AA+ and above) saw a change of -0.11%, medium-rated bonds (AA) changed by -0.44%, and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) changed by -0.38%, with high-rated bonds experiencing the least decline [4] - In terms of bond size, large-scale convertible bonds (balance over 5 billion) increased by +0.43%, while medium-scale (5 to 50 billion) and small-scale (under 5 billion) bonds decreased by -0.39% and -0.34%, respectively, with large-scale bonds showing the highest increase [4] Price and Premium Analysis - The average price of convertible bonds is 121.63 yuan, with an average parity of 93.35 yuan and an average conversion premium rate of 30.0% as of June 13, 2025 [5][6] - The average conversion premium rate for medium parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 to 110 yuan) is 24.3%, which is higher than the median conversion premium rate of 19.8% since 2018 [6] Future Outlook - The convertible bond market's future performance will be influenced by economic negotiations, fundamental factors, and macro policies [7] - Current focus areas include convertible bonds linked to companies that can boost domestic demand and those involved in domestic substitution, particularly those with strong underlying stocks [7]

Report Date - The report is dated June 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different trends such as price fluctuations, range - bound trading, and upward or downward trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction restricts price decline. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,290 yuan with a daily increase of 0.52%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,647 dollars with a decline of 0.80%. China's 1 - 5 month cumulative import of copper ore and concentrates increased by 7.4% year - on - year [5][7] - **Aluminum**: Need to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US negotiations. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,250 yuan. Alumina is expected to run weakly, with the Shanghai alumina main contract closing at 2,895 yuan [8] - **Zinc**: Short - term oscillation, with attention to inventory. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,140 yuan with an increase of 1.35%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons [11] - **Lead**: Range - bound trading. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,845 yuan with a decline of 0.21%. LME lead inventory decreased by 4,500 tons [14] - **Tin**: Stopped falling and rebounded. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,530 yuan with an increase of 0.80%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 4,800 yuan compared to the previous day [18] - **Nickel**: The reality support and weak expectation are in a game, and the nickel price oscillates. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 121,790 yuan. Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, and the steel price is range - bound. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,600 yuan [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, and the fundamentals remain weak. The 2507 contract of carbonate lithium closed at 61,680 yuan [28] - **Industrial Silicon**: The fundamentals are weak, and the upside space is limited. The Si2507 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,560 yuan. Polysilicon: The spot is weak, and the disk has a downward drive. The PS2507 contract of polysilicon closed at 34,255 yuan [31] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it oscillates within a range. The futures price closed at 707.0 yuan with an increase of 1.22% [34] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are in wide - range oscillations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,991 yuan with an increase of 0.67%, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,108 yuan with an increase of 0.78% [37] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon ferrosilicon is in wide - range oscillations due to production cuts in major producing areas. The silicon ferrosilicon 2507 contract closed at 5,298 yuan. Manganese silicon is weakly oscillating as overseas miners' quotes decline. The manganese silicon 2507 contract closed at 5,472 yuan [41] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is in wide - range oscillations. Coking coal is in wide - range oscillations as safety inspections become stricter. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 783.5 yuan with a decline of 0.19%, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1,356 yuan with an increase of 0.52% [46] - **Steam Coal**: Demand is yet to be released, and it is in wide - range oscillations. The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day [51] - **Rubber**: Oscillating. The rubber main contract closed at 13,890 yuan during the day session [61] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by strong crude oil, it is in short - term oscillations. The main contract of synthetic rubber (07 contract) closed at 11,225 yuan [65] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are large differences in pressure from the origin, and it is grinding the bottom in oscillations. The palm oil is in a state of range - bound trading with a focus on the pressure from the origin [58] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force is temporarily weak, and it is in range - bound trading. The soybean oil is currently in a range - bound state with limited driving factors [58] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to good weather and a decline in US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. The soybean meal market was affected by the weather and US soybean prices [60] - **Soybean**: Due to the expectation of provincial reserve sales, the futures price declined. The soybean market was influenced by the expectation of provincial reserve sales [60] - **Corn**: Oscillating strongly. The corn market shows a relatively strong oscillating trend [62] - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level. The sugar market is in a low - level consolidation phase [64] - **Cotton**: Continuing to be affected by market sentiment. The cotton market is still under the influence of market sentiment [65] - **Egg**: The negative impact of the plum - rain season has been released, waiting for the confirmation of chicken culling. The egg market is waiting for the impact of chicken culling after the plum - rain season [67] - **Live Pig**: Still waiting for the confirmation of the spot market. The live pig market is awaiting the performance of the spot market [68] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market. The peanut market requires attention to the spot price [69]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.19%，报收 68.34 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 1.09%，报收 13495 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 7811 手至 53.85 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14443 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 12 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14620 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 59 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍是主要影响因素，美元指数重 | | | | 心环比小幅下移，美棉价格没有方向驱动。国内市场方面，宏观层面有新消息，中 | | | | 美经贸磋商机制第一次会议于 6 月 9 日在英国伦敦举行，市场情绪提振，郑棉期 | | | | 价重心上移。基本面来看，淡季周期内，下游纺织企业开机负荷相对偏低，周环比 | | | | 下降，产成品库存逐渐累积，织厂原材料库存已经降低近年来同期低位水平，需求 | | | | 端支撑偏弱。展望未来，宏观层 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-06-05 商品氛围转暖，天胶低位反弹 油脂：中加贸易关系存改善预期，菜油表现仍较弱 蛋⽩粕：现货情绪降温，盘面跟随回调 ⽟⽶/淀粉：购销平淡，期货价格震荡运行 ⽣猪：出栏增加，猪价继续下跌 橡㬵：商品氛围转暖，盘面低位反弹 合成橡㬵：原料企稳，盘面小幅收涨 纸浆：近月显著回调更为明显，纸浆维持震荡判断 棉花：利多较为缺乏，棉价偏弱运行 ⽩糖：下榨季预期供需宽松，糖价走弱运行 原⽊：岚山降价，盘面承压 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：商品氛围转暖，盘⾯低位反弹 逻辑：随着胶价已经触及了今年低位水平后，借着由其他商品大涨带动的 多头氛围，胶价昨日出现明显反弹。不过基本面方面变化不大，供给端来 说，泰国仍处于雨季影响当中，但原料价格最终受到期货盘面的拖拽开始 下行，杯胶价格在端午假期期间已经跌至46泰铢，国内外倒挂幅度出现一 定缓解，需要再次观察原料价格何时企稳。需求端来说，轮胎开工整体恢 复力度偏弱，部分企业月底存检修计划，另有少数企业存减产现象，成品 库存积压的情况得到些许缓解，但仍难以见到明显改善。当前来说，宏观 层面仍存较大 ...

2025年06月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：三轮提降开启，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 1. 29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 704. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and market activity of the credit bond ETF Bosera, which has seen a continuous increase in trading and liquidity, indicating strong investor interest [2][3] - As of May 27, 2025, the credit bond ETF Bosera has achieved a price of 100.79 yuan, marking a 0.05% increase and a seven-day consecutive rise [2] - The fund has recorded a trading volume of 46.02 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 67.44%, reflecting active market participation [2] Group 2 - The credit bond ETF Bosera has experienced a net inflow of funds over the past five days, totaling 13.03 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 5.25 billion yuan [3] - The fund's leverage has been increasing, with a latest financing balance of 55.00 million yuan, indicating sustained interest from leveraged investors [3] - Since its inception, the credit bond ETF Bosera has shown a monthly profit percentage of 66.67% and a historical three-month holding profit probability of 100.00% [3] Group 3 - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception is 0.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.10%, and it took 26 days to recover from the maximum drawdown [3] - The management fee for the credit bond ETF Bosera is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [3] - The tracking error for the fund year-to-date is 0.009%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [3]