1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the sugar market, technical buying increased after a sharp decline in ICE raw sugar, showing signs of stabilization. However, global sugar production is expected to be high, and the downward potential of raw sugar has weakened. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar was driven down by the macro - environment and the decline in raw sugar, with short - term technical rebounds but limited by supply - demand pressure [3]. - In the pulp market, the price of hardwood pulp is strong, while the price of softwood pulp is weak. The supply of wood pulp is high, and although there was a reduction in production by some pulp mills, the impact is not obvious. The demand for wood pulp is supported by the increase in the production of finished paper during the peak season, but the price increase of finished paper is weak, and the upward drive for pulp is limited [4]. - Regarding double - offset paper, the expectation of peak - season demand may support the price, but due to the high production capacity, the seasonal improvement may not lead to a significant price increase, and it is expected to be weak in the medium term [7]. - In the cotton market, the US cotton harvest is progressing steadily, and the domestic Xinjiang cotton harvest is also in progress. The market is under pressure from supply and consumption concerns, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [8]. - For apples, the new - season apple harvest has a time lag and quality concerns, and the short - term futures price may be supported [10]. - In the jujube market, the inventory has decreased slightly. The futures price is at a high premium to the spot price, and investors are advised to short at high prices [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2601: Adopt a bullish approach, with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 9000 - 9200, due to the expected difference in the new - season harvest and the value of taking delivery [21]. - Jujube 2601: Short at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000, as the overall commodity sentiment is strong and attention is on weather - related price premiums [21]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2601: Temporarily wait and see, with a support range of 5270 - 5300 and a pressure range of 5480 - 5500, as technical buying has increased and sentiment has improved [21]. - Pulp 2511: Short within the range, with a support range of 4700 - 4800 and a pressure range of 5100 - 5200, because the short - term valuation is not high, but supply is high and the price of domestic finished paper is weak [21]. - Double - offset paper 2601: Short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500, as the approaching peak season supports the price, but the supply is elastic [21]. - Cotton 2601: Hold short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a pressure range of 13600 - 13700, due to the approaching new - cotton listing and concerns about Sino - US trade relations [21]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.57%. As of September 25, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 30,700 tons [22]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the inventory apple market is stable, and the new - season late - maturing Fuji has a delayed listing due to weather. In the Shaanxi production area, red apples are scarce, and the listing time is also postponed. The sales area market is stable [22][23][24]. - **Jujube Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9167 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36 tons, a decrease of 0.39% and a year - on - year increase of 93.89%. Attention is on the circulation of old - season jujubes and price changes before the new - season harvest [25]. - **Sugar Market**: In September, the average productivity of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 71.9 tons per hectare, higher than the same period last year. Pakistan plans to purchase up to 100,000 tons of sugar on the international market, but the possibility of a deal seems to be decreasing [27]. - **Pulp Market**: Chinese traders counter - offered to import NBSK at $650 per ton, but sellers refused to reduce prices. A European supplier sold NBSK at $650 per ton, lower than the market level. A major Brazilian supplier will increase the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp to the Asian market by $20 per ton [30]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In different regions such as Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin, the price of double - offset paper is relatively stable. The supply is relatively loose as some production lines resume production after the holiday, and the demand shows no sign of improvement [31][32]. - **Cotton Market**: In September 2025, Bangladesh's clothing export volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. In August, Vietnam's cotton textile production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, while clothing production decreased. As of October 13, the cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang was about 53.2%. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be adjusted slightly [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of apple 2601, jujube 2601, sugar 2601, pulp 2511, and cotton 2601 are 8665, 11105, 5403, 4856, and 13270 respectively, with daily changes of 0.01%, - 0.05%, 0.11%, 0.21%, and 0.04% [34]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton are 3.75 yuan per catty, 9.40 yuan per kilogram, 5790 yuan per ton, 5550 yuan (Shandong Silver Star), 4450 yuan (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin), and 14674 yuan per ton respectively, with corresponding changes [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summarized content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, such as the basis of apple 1 - month, jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - For apples, the 10 - 1 spread is 535, with a month - on - month change of - 1 and a year - on - year change of - 97, expected to fluctuate repeatedly, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - For jujubes, the 9 - 1 spread is 315, with a month - on - month change of 295 and a year - on - year change of - 55, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 spread is 32, with a month - on - month change of 5 and a year - on - year change of 15, expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - For cotton, the 1 - 5 spread is - 60, with a month - on - month change of - 5 and a year - on - year change of 25, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see temporarily [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summarized content provided, only relevant charts about the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, and net long and short changes of various varieties are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volumes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are 0, 0, 8438, 227676, and 2773 respectively, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [85]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summarized content provided, only relevant charts about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton are mentioned.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [5] - Rubber: Oscillating [7] - Methanol: Oscillating [8] - Polyolefins: Oscillating weakly [8] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased with the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement, leading to a decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil and downward pressure on oil prices. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories. Under the triple tests of supply increase expectations, geopolitical factor easing, and demand entering the off - season, oil prices are expected to continue their weakening trend [1]. - **Fuel oil**: Although the East - West arbitrage window for low - sulfur fuel oil is mostly closed, the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable, but the supply may increase in the future. The high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than the low - sulfur [3]. - **Asphalt**: During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly. The continuous rainfall in the southern regions hinders downstream construction, while the northern regions still have some catch - up demand. The recent significant increase in asphalt production may put pressure on prices after the peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may continue to increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken in the second half of October. Under the situation of supply increase and demand weakening, the fundamentals of TA and ethylene glycol are weak, and their prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Rubber**: Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", the rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease. The US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress global rubber demand. After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to new rubber warehouse receipts and crude oil price fluctuations [7]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has significantly increased, but MTO profit compression may affect refinery maintenance plans. In the short term, methanol prices are suppressed by high inventories and tend to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefins**: Poor profit performance may lead to a high level of maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will gradually decline, affecting the procurement of raw materials. Supply pressure remains high, demand has peaked and declined, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue. As the peak season in October ends, downstream operations are expected to decline, and exports may weaken due to India's anti - dumping duties. High inventory pressure will restrict price increases, and market fluctuations may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, the price of WTI November contract closed at $61.51 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.66%. Brent December contract closed at $65.22 per barrel, down $1.03 or 1.55%. SC2511 closed at 464.2 yuan per barrel, down 4.5 yuan or 0.96%. Israel's approval of the Gaza cease - fire agreement led to a decline in the geopolitical premium. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.25% at 2,834 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract (LU2511) closed down 1.23% at 3,360 yuan per ton. The inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2511) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.52% at 3,375 yuan per ton. During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly, and the southern rainfall affected downstream construction [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,626 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. EG2601 closed at 4,234 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai - traded rubber (RU2601) rose 95 yuan per ton to 15,620 yuan per ton. Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease, and the US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress demand [7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,213 yuan per ton. The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has increased [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was 6,700 - 6,800 yuan per ton. Poor profit performance may lead to high - level maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will decline [8]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price of PVC in the East - China market decreased. In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue, and downstream operations are expected to decline as the peak season ends [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products on October 10, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and soda ash [10]. 3.3 Market News - Israel and Hamas have reached a long - sought cease - fire and personnel release agreement, which weakens the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil and triggers investors to sell [12]. - In the absence of strong new signals in supply and demand, crude oil prices have also declined with the broader market. The US government shutdown and the strengthening of the US dollar have reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities. Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and slightly downward [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, and p - xylene [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][35][36][39][42][44]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads The report displays the spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51][54][58][60]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads The report presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [62][65][67][68]. 3.4.5 Production Profits The report shows the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE from 2021 to 2025 [70][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy and chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [77]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and has won many industry awards [78]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities, and has won several industry awards [79]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in integrating financial theory and industrial operations [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: In the fourth quarter, the downside space is limited. Although the current downstream demand is mainly based on rigid - need purchases, there may be procurement willingness after the National Day due to low prices. In the fourth quarter, there may be concentrated stocking behavior, and the spot liquidity may tighten [2]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, pay attention to cost support. Although the supply is in an over - capacity situation, exports have alleviated some pressure. The cost side provides bottom support, and the downside space during the peak season is limited [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the PXN has a compression expectation. The price will be under pressure due to weak cost - side support and weak supply - demand expectations [6]. - **PTA**: In the fourth quarter, it is difficult to have an independent market and may follow the cost side to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In the fourth quarter, it is expected to enter a period of inventory accumulation as it enters the demand off - season [6]. Polyolefin Industry - **LLDPE and PP**: For LLDPE, the current maintenance is at a high point, and the inventory of the upper - middle reaches is being depleted. For PP, unplanned maintenance has increased due to losses, and the inventory has decreased. However, after the festival, there is a large inventory pressure, and the new capacity release limits the upside space [9]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol**: In the short term, it will continue the volatile pattern. The supply side has a game between the expected supply reduction and the relatively healthy inventory structure. The demand side is weak as the traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the new polyolefin device production expectations suppress the MTO demand [21]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the oil price trend and macro - market sentiment [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical and macro - news [26]. Fertilizer Industry - **Urea**: The futures price fluctuates downward. The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the export situation is uncertain [31]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil**: In the fourth quarter, the oil price will likely maintain a wide - range volatile pattern. Unilateral trading is recommended to use a band - trading strategy, and arbitrage is recommended to use a positive - spread strategy [33][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some products such as East China PVC by calcium carbide method decreased slightly, and the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC were mostly stable, but the export profit of caustic soda decreased by 26.3%, and that of PVC increased by 323.8% [2]. - **Supply**: The overall PVC start - up rate increased by 0.9%, while the data of caustic soda start - up rate was not available [2]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly, and the PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong, and PVC upstream factories increased, while the total PVC social inventory remained unchanged [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of some products such as CFR Japan naphtha decreased [6]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of CFR China PX and PX spot in RMB decreased [6]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA spot price in East China increased slightly, and the PTA futures price decreased [6]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The MEG spot price in East China decreased, and the MEG futures price also decreased [6]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of L2601, PP2601 and other futures decreased slightly, and the price of East China PP raffia decreased by 0.3% [8][9]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the start - up rates of PE and PP devices increased [9]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased slightly, and the regional spreads changed [21]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, port and social inventories of methanol decreased [21]. - **Start - up Rates**: The start - up rate of upstream domestic enterprises increased, while the start - up rates of some downstream industries decreased [21]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some upstream products such as CFR China pure benzene decreased, and the import profit of pure benzene decreased [25]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in East China spot and futures decreased slightly [25]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, while the styrene inventory increased. The start - up rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [25]. Fertilizer Industry - **Fertilizer Prices**: The prices of various fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur are provided on September 26 [28][29]. - **Urea Data**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea are presented. The daily output is high, and the demand is weak [31]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 29, compared with September 26, the prices of Brent, WTI and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads changed [33]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD decreased, and the spreads also changed [33]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products such as US gasoline and diesel changed [33].

Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices continue to rise, with increases up to 20 CNY per gram, and most stores reporting an increase of 18 CNY per gram, reaching 1053 CNY per gram at the highest-priced stores [1] - Shanghai China Gold reported the lowest price at 989 CNY per gram, with a price difference of 64 CNY per gram compared to the highest price, which has narrowed from the previous day [1] - Specific gold prices from various brands include: Lao Miao at 1052 CNY, Liu Fu at 1053 CNY, and Zhou Da Fu at 1037 CNY, among others [1] Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has also increased by 7.9 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands [2] - Current recycling prices include: 799.30 CNY for general gold, 804.80 CNY for Cai Zi gold, and 812.10 CNY for Lao Feng Xiang gold [2] International Gold Market - Spot gold experienced a decline to a low of 3469.99 USD per ounce but rebounded to close at 3532.69 USD per ounce, marking a 1.65% increase [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 3530.84 USD per ounce, showing a slight decrease of 0.05% [4] - Factors influencing gold prices include uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies, weak economic data, and increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a shift of funds into safe-haven assets like gold [4] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may continue to rise due to seasonal demand and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and taking profits, and left - side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the cost has increased due to rising coal prices, domestic supply is increasing, and overseas imports are expected to rise. The demand is currently weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. - Urea faces a situation of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The supply pressure remains, and the domestic demand lacks support. The main demand variable is exports. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - Polyethylene is expected to have an upward - trending price in the long - run, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. - PX is expected to maintain low inventories, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. - PTA's supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. - Ethylene glycol has an oversupply situation in the medium - term, and there is downward pressure on its valuation [26]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.43, or 2.21%, to $63.31; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.49, or 2.17%, to $67.25; INE main crude oil futures rose 3.20 yuan, or 0.66%, to 488.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In the weekly data of Fujairah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.09 million barrels to 6.97 million barrels, a 13.47% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.82 million barrels to 1.46 million barrels, a 35.88% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.18 million barrels, a 6.30% increase; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.48 million barrels to 15.61 million barrels, an 8.65% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 29 yuan/ton to 2395 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Coal prices are rising, domestic supply is increasing, overseas imports are expected to rise rapidly. The demand from port MTO plants is temporarily stopped and expected to resume at the end of the month, and traditional demand is weak [4]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable, with a basis of - 47 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production is at a high level, and the enterprise profit is at a low level. The domestic demand is weak, and the main demand variable is exports [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe in factors such as weather in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved demand expectations in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and less - than - expected supply benefits [10]. - **Industry Situation**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from last week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from last week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year [11]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 121.7 million tons, up 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period; as of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 48 yuan to 4999 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4760 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 239 (+ 38) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (+ 9) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate of PVC decreased, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. The enterprise profit is at a high level, and the export expectation is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, and the basis strengthened [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - sentiment is good, the cost support remains, the BZN spread has room to recover, the supply is increasing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is rising [17][18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell, and the spot price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in Q3, the cost support remains, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials is starting to stockpile [20]. - **Strategy**: The long - term price is expected to oscillate upward [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell, and the spot price remained stable [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: A new integrated device has been put into production, the demand - side operating rate is oscillating at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 24 yuan to 6994 yuan, and the PX CFR rose $5 to $864 [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, the overall load center is low, but due to new PTA device put - ins, PX is expected to maintain low inventories [23][24]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4870 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased, the downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased. The supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking [25]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 19 yuan to 4490 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4553 yuan [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, the downstream load is increasing, the port inventory is decreasing, but there is an oversupply situation in the medium - term [26]. - **Strategy**: There is downward pressure on its valuation in the medium - term [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still favorable. It is a good time for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions can be considered [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the port inventory may decline from a high level. The styrene price may fluctuate upward following the cost side [15][16] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward, with the long - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] - For PX, it is expected to maintain low inventory, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following the oil price on dips during the peak season [21][22] - For PTA, the supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy (Crude Oil) - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.34, or 0.54%, to $63.48; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 0.94%, to $67.67; INE main crude oil futures rose 8.80 yuan, or 1.85%, to 484.7 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.91 million barrels to 15.15 million barrels, a 6.42% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, a 3.98% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a 6.53% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.33 million barrels to 47.89 million barrels, a 0.67% decrease [1] 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 [4] - **Supply**: Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production starts are gradually bottoming out and increasing, and overseas plant starts have returned to the same - period high, with imports expected to increase [4] - **Demand**: Most traditional demand sectors have low profits. Olefin profits have improved, but port production starts are low, and demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6] - **Supply**: Domestic production starts have changed from a decline to an increase. Although corporate profits are still low, they are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. The overall supply is relatively loose [6] - **Demand**: Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production starts have further increased, with high finished product inventories. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices declined and then fluctuated weakly [8] - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help increase rubber production to a limited extent, and the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [9] - **Inventory and Production Starts**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 0.85% from the previous period [10] 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 4 yuan to 5004 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 264 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 132 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production start of PVC was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. The downstream demand start was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [13] 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of styrene both increased, and the basis strengthened [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost side still has support, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair space. The supply side has increasing production starts, and the port inventory has been continuously increasing significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the demand side's overall operating rate of three S products has been rising [15][16] 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene increased [18] - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The overall inventory is declining from a high level, and the demand side's agricultural film raw material procurement has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [18] 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the production start is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand [19] 3.8 PX, PTA, and MEG 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 114 yuan to 6958 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 17 dollars to 854 dollars [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, and there are many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory [21] 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 82 yuan to 4860 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 120 yuan/ton to 4810 yuan [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased by 4.8% to 71.6%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [23] 3.8.3 MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 4 yuan to 4473 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4511 yuan [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The MEG load increased by 6.2% to 73.2%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The port inventory decreased by 0.6 tons to 54.7 tons. The fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and stop - profit, and left - side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices slump sharply [2]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the current situation is weak but may improve in the peak season [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average. The price range is narrowing, and it is advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. A neutral approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 position is suggested [10]. - For PVC, the overall situation is supply - strong and demand - weak with high valuations. The cost of calcium carbide has declined, and the fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - In the case of styrene, the market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and port inventories are decreasing. The price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. But inventory pressure and seasonal factors exist. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost may dominate the market. It is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. - For PX, the load is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance. However, due to new PTA installations, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. There is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term. It is recommended to follow crude oil to go long on dips [18][19]. - For PTA, supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving, and it is recommended to follow PX to go long on dips when the peak - season demand improves [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load is decreasing, and downstream load is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing, but the industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.14, or 0.22%, to $63.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.33, or 0.50%, to $66.46; INE main crude oil futures fell 3.70 yuan, or 0.76%, to 482.6 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase. Gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 90.14 million barrels, a 1.97% decrease. Diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 104.59 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. Total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 2.77 million barrels to 194.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 1754 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and consolidated [8]. - **Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, a 0.8% decrease. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [9]. - **Analysis of Long and Short Views**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber - forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production - cut amplitude may be lower than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 43 yuan to 5054 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 254 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 134 (+9) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate of PVC is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 tons (- 1), and social inventory is 81.2 tons (+3.5). The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level of the year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, high production, and weak downstream demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [12]. - **Analysis**: The market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing significantly. The short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. Inventory pressure from traders is high, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. In August, there is a large production - capacity release plan. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [16]. - **Analysis**: Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is a planned production - capacity release of 45 tons. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost may dominate the market, and it is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6760 yuan, PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 833 dollars, the basis was 88 yuan (- 27), and the 11 - 1 spread was 36 yuan (+30) [18]. - **Fundamentals**: China's PX load is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and Asia's load is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. In early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons year - on - year. Inventories decreased in June. PXN is 255 dollars (+2), and naphtha crack spread is 88 dollars (+7). PX is expected to continue inventory reduction, and there is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 30 yuan to 4746 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 12 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan (- 10) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices have stopped or restarted. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal loads are increasing. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 8 was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons. The spot processing fee fell 19 yuan to 178 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 335 yuan. Supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 23 yuan to 4346 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4441 yuan, the basis was 92 yuan (+4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 46 yuan (- 3) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply load is 66.4%, down 2%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Import arrival forecast is 14.1 tons, and port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost of ethylene is flat, and the price of coal has risen. The industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the valuation is relatively high, with downward pressure on short - term valuation [21].

Core Viewpoint - LG Chem's petrochemical business reported a significant decline in revenue and operating profit in the second quarter, attributed to external factors such as U.S. tariff disputes and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Financial Performance - The petrochemical business revenue reached 4.6 trillion KRW (approximately 3.3 billion USD), a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% [1] - The operating loss for the petrochemical division was 90 billion KRW, compared to an operating profit of 46 billion KRW in the same period last year [1] - The advanced materials division saw a 50% drop in operating profit to 71 billion KRW, with sales declining by 34.6% to 1 trillion KRW [1] Market Outlook - LG Chem maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for its petrochemical business, despite ongoing uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs [1] - The company plans to enhance profitability through normalization of new production capacity and ongoing cost reduction measures [1]

1. PVC, Caustic Soda Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For caustic soda, the overall demand has performed well recently, but there are expectations of increased supply in the future, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement situation of alumina enterprises [5]. - For PVC, the supply - side pressure is increasing, downstream demand is difficult to improve, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the positive impact of coking coal on PVC prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2500 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda also remained unchanged at 2600 yuan/ton. The market price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to 4910 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.4%. The price of SH2601 increased by 41 yuan/ton to 2636 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.6% [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate on August 8 was 89.1%, an increase of 1.7% compared to August 1. The total operating rate of PVC was 77.8%, an increase of 6.1% compared to August 1. The profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 150 yuan/ton to - 542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.3% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 8, the operating rate of the alumina industry was 82.6%, an increase of 0.2% compared to August 1. The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry remained unchanged at 85%. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry was 59.3%, an increase of 0.7% compared to August 1. The operating rate of Longzhong sample PVC pipes decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 32.1%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 36.9% [4][5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the factory - warehouse inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China was 219,000 tons, an increase of 2.0% compared to July 31. The total social inventory of PVC was 481,000 tons, an increase of 7.3% compared to July 31 [5]. 2. Polyolefin Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the inventory accumulation expectation turns into a flat - inventory expectation. The downstream operating rate is at a low level, but there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season. The overall valuation is neutral, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to take profit on the short positions established at 7200 - 7300 around 7000 and continue to hold LP01 [10]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the closing price of L2601 was 7389 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to August 11. The closing price of PP2509 was 7091 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to August 11 [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, PP maintenance decreased, and the supply pressure of PE also increased. The downstream operating rate of PP/PE was at a low level, and the social inventory was accumulating, but the downstream raw material inventory had been digested to a relatively low level [10]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the enterprise inventory of PE was 515,000 tons, an increase of 19.09% compared to the previous period; the enterprise inventory of PP was 587,000 tons, an increase of 3.95% compared to the previous period [10]. 3. Crude Oil Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Recent oil prices have shown a weak and volatile trend, driven by geopolitics and supply - demand fundamentals. The market is cautious. In the short term, oil prices will remain under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and expand the 10 - 11/12 month spreads [13]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 13, the price of Brent crude oil was 66.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.77% compared to August 12. The price of WTI crude oil was 63.16 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.02% compared to August 12 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The US Department of Energy has raised the expected supply surplus for this year to 1.7 million barrels per day, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, increasing supply pressure. Seasonal demand is weakening, and gasoline and diesel consumption is gradually declining, suppressing the upside of oil prices [13]. 4. Methanol Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The inland maintenance of methanol is expected to peak at the beginning of August. Currently, production is at a high level year - on - year. The port has significantly accumulated inventory this week, and the basis is stable. In August, imports are still relatively high, and downstream demand is weak due to low profits. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices in 01 contracts after the near - end contracts weaken significantly [19][20]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the closing price of MA2601 was 2496 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to August 11. The closing price of MA2509 was 2391 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08% compared to August 11 [17]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the enterprise inventory of methanol was 29.3688 (unit not specified), a decrease of 9.50% compared to the previous period; the port inventory was 925,000 tons, an increase of 14.48% compared to the previous period [18]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of domestic upstream methanol enterprises was 73.17%, an increase of 2.28% compared to the previous period; the operating rate of downstream acetic acid enterprises was 89.8%, a decrease of 4.38% compared to the previous period [19]. 5. Urea Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The weak and volatile trend of the urea futures market is driven by the contradiction between supply and demand. High supply pressure persists, and industrial and agricultural demand is weak. Although exports are progressing in an orderly manner, they cannot offset the domestic supply - demand imbalance. It is expected that the market will fluctuate around the 1700 - 1720 range in the short term [27]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 11, the price of Shandong small - particle urea decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% [27]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of domestic urea on August 8 was 192,100 tons, an increase of 1.05% compared to August 7. The weekly output of domestic urea was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 1.94% compared to August 1 [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the weekly inventory of domestic urea factories was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 3.24% compared to the previous period; the weekly inventory of domestic urea ports was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 2.03% compared to the previous period [27]. 6. Polyester Industry Chain Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase marginally in August, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken. The upward rebound drive is insufficient, but the downward space is also limited. PX11 is expected to fluctuate between 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton [30]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in August, but the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. The basis is running weakly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and conduct reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 at high prices [30]. - **MEG**: The short - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is recommended to lightly buy on dips around 4400 yuan/ton for EGO9 [30]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term supply - demand drive is limited, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within the range of 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton for PF10 [30]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The inventory is gradually decreasing, and the processing fee has support at the bottom. It is recommended to buy the processing fee on dips in the short term [30]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of POY150/48 was 6730 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of PX futures 2601 was 6712 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton compared to August 11 [30]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of Asian PX was 73.6%, an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous period; the operating rate of PTA was 75.3%, an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous period [30]. 7. Pure Benzene - Styrene Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the third quarter, and the port inventory is expected to decrease in August, providing short - term support for prices. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the upward rebound space is limited. BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [34]. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply remains high, and there are expectations of some device maintenance. The downstream EPS has reduced production due to high inventory. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. EB09 is expected to fluctuate between 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and short - selling is recommended near the upper limit [34]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of CFR China pure benzene was 755 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.7% compared to August 11. The price of styrene in East China was 7370 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.0% compared to August 11 [34]. - **Inventory**: As of August 11, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 146,000 tons, a decrease of 10.4% compared to August 4; the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 148,800 tons, a decrease of 6.4% compared to August 4 [34]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of Asian pure benzene was 76.0%, a decrease of 1.3% compared to August 1; the operating rate of styrene was 77.7%, a decrease of 1.2% compared to August 1 [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil showed a lackluster performance with six consecutive negative closes, and the market sentiment was relatively weak. Although there were potential supply tightening and strong demand signals, the market reaction was flat due to the approaching end of the traditional demand peak season, India's strong response, and the progress of the US - Russia talks. The current oil price is approaching a key support level and faces a directional choice. There is a risk of the oil price breaking down due to the accumulation of US commercial crude oil inventories and the approaching seasonal demand inflection point. It is recommended to short on rallies [1][2][3][5] Summary by Directory Market Structure - The report presents the WTI forward curve, WTI monthly spreads, Brent forward curve, Brent monthly spreads, SC forward curve, and SC crude oil monthly spreads, showing the latest data and those from one and two weeks ago [11][14][16] Supply - The report shows data on US crude oil production, rigs, and active fracturing fleets, as well as OPEC+ member countries' production. It also includes the US refinery utilization rate and the refining plant utilization rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation units) [21][24] Demand - The report shows the production of crude oil in countries such as Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia, reflecting the supply - side situation related to demand [30] Inventory - The report presents data on US crude oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves, commercial crude oil in the whole US, and commercial crude oil in Cushing, as well as the inventories of gasoline, aviation kerosene, and distillate fuel oil [27][31] Position/US Dollar - The report shows the WTI fund position, Brent fund position, WTI total position, Brent total position, and the US dollar index [32][33]