◆生猪： 饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 6 月 12 日辽宁现货 13.7-14.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 13.8-14.2 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 13.8-14.1 元/公斤，较上一日稳 定；广东 15-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格北跌南 稳定。虽然猪价跌破 14 元/公斤养殖端有抗价，且国家启动冻肉收储提振市 场情绪，但 6 月生猪出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，养殖端逢高出栏积 极性增强。随着气温升高和院校放假，季节性需求淡季显现，且屠企加工利 润仍亏损，整体消费难有好的表现，供强需弱格局未改，猪价上方仍承压， 短期猪价维持震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育和冻品入库、体重变化。 中长期来看，虽然前期行业会议让产业降能繁、降体重、不让继续二育，受 此影响远月期价有一定提振，但能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产 性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，6-9 月供应呈增加态势，且 2024 年 12 月 开始，生猪产能虽有所去化，不过行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡区 间上限，四季度供应压力仍大，远期价格反弹承压。策略上，盘面仍贴水， 短期低位 ...

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices declined overnight, with Brent 08 contract down 1.07%. Saudi Arabia aims to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and lower the official price premium for light crude oil sold to Asia in July. The supply disruption caused by wildfires in Canada has partially recovered. Consider shorting opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may lead to a co - weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil cracking and EFS. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil due to weak supply and demand [20]. - The discount of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel. Supply increase lacks momentum, demand is seasonally improving, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The BU cracking spread faces short - term回调 pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [21]. - In June, the decline in CP is relatively small. Although the Middle - East supply is abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment. The supply pressure has weakened, and the market is stabilizing, maintaining a low - level shock [22]. - Urea agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest break period, and the market trading sentiment is weak. Production enterprises are continuously accumulating inventory. Exports are gradually liberalized, but inspections are still restricted. The market weakens within the range [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold showed a strong - side oscillation overnight, while silver had limited fluctuations. The US economic data is weak, and the Fed's attitude is cautious. Gold prices should be bought on dips based on the strong support at $3000 [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper showed a solid form with inventory decreasing rapidly and logistics shifting to the US. Consider short - selling on rebounds or active position - swapping [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Demand is facing seasonal decline and trade frictions. There is resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Participate in short - selling on rallies [4]. - The bauxite mine incident in Guinea has temporarily subsided. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. Consider short - selling after the futures discount is gradually repaired [5]. - The zinc market's fundamentals are shifting from weak supply - demand to increasing supply and weakening demand. Continue the strategy of short - selling on rebounds [6]. - The actual consumption of lead is not optimistic. The cost - side support is strong, and the lower limit of Shanghai lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan per ton [7]. - The nickel market is affected by trade conflicts. The supply of stainless steel is high, and the inventory situation is mixed. Short - sell on rebounds [8]. - The tin price continued to rise overnight. The low - grade tin production may be slower than expected. Hold previous high - level short positions and swap positions on rebounds [9]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices slightly declined at night. Rebar demand has short - term resilience but is under pressure in the off - season. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand have both increased, and inventory has decreased. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [13]. - Iron ore prices oscillated strongly overnight. Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The rebound space is expected to be limited [14]. - Coke prices rebounded significantly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price may continue to rise in the short term [15]. - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly. The current rebound is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [16]. Group 5: Chemicals - Methanol prices stopped rising and oscillated at night. The industry is accumulating inventory, and prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the inventory in Jiangsu [24]. - Styrene prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [25]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term decline space is limited. The demand off - season continues [26]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level due to expected supply increase and export decline. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at a high level [27]. - PX and PTA prices are under pressure due to changes in supply - demand patterns. Pay attention to terminal orders and polyester production cuts [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices continue to decline. The market sentiment is weakening [29]. Group 6: Grains and Oils - Soybean meal futures oscillated flat, with weak upward drive. Supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term bearish, pay attention to weather changes from June to August [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate within a range. The market is affected by policy expectations, supply pressure, and weather [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade policies and overseas weather [36]. - Domestic soybeans oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the auction results and weather [37]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Demand is weak, and new wheat may replace some corn demand [38]. Group 7: Livestock and Poultry - Hog futures oscillated weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the later stage, and short - term prices may continue to decline [39]. - Egg futures hit a new low. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may continue to decline [40]. Group 8: Textiles - Cotton prices: US cotton may benefit from rainfall, but the planting progress is behind. Domestic cotton has tight inventory expectations, and the market is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [41]. - Sugar prices: International sugar supply expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar has less inventory pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42]. - Apple prices oscillate. Market demand has declined, and the focus is on the new - season output estimate [43]. Group 9: Others - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [44]. - Pulp prices slightly declined. Inventory is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and pay attention to import data. Consider buying on significant dips [45]. - Stock index futures rebounded. Due to geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, the market may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to domestic policy signals [46]. - Treasury bond futures closed up. Overseas budget expansion and domestic bond issuance acceleration may affect the market. The short - term long - side may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and pay attention to curve - steepening opportunities [47].

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price continued to rise overnight, with the Brent 08 contract up 0.75%. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, but there may be opportunities to short again after the peak season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in. The global oil inventory has increased by 2% since the second quarter, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and its cracking and EFS are expected to weaken. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [20]. - The asphalt industry started destocking in June, and the destocking trend is expected to continue. The BU crack spread may face short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is hard to reverse [21]. - The decline of 6 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas is small. The market has stabilized, and the downward space is limited. The spot surplus pressure has eased, and the futures may have a small basis contraction, but it will maintain a low - level shock [22]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals oscillated weakly overnight. The US economic data this week is in focus, especially the non - farm payrolls on Friday. Gold can be bought on dips with strong support at $3000 [2]. Group 3: Base Metals - Copper prices rose overnight. The White House's tariff policy may increase the expectation of copper tariffs. The LME copper inventory decreased to 143,800 tons, and the spot premium was $50. The KK mine in Congo may resume production at the end of the month. Consider shorting on rebounds or actively rolling over contracts [3]. - Aluminum prices rebounded slightly overnight. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 8,000 tons, and the demand is facing challenges. There is resistance at the key position of 20,300 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4]. - The alumina supply elasticity is large after the profit recovery. The domestic operating capacity increased by 1.3 million tons to 89.3 million tons. It is advisable to short on rallies, and not to chase short when the discount is large [5]. - Zinc demand is in the off - season, and the fundamentals are changing from weak supply and demand to increasing supply and weak demand. Continue to short on rebounds [6]. - The cost support of lead is expected to gradually appear, and the lower support of SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan/ton [7]. - Nickel prices rebounded, but the stainless - steel market is still in a situation of high supply and weak demand. The nickel iron inventory increased, and the pure nickel and stainless - steel inventories decreased. Short positions can be followed as the nickel price starts to fall [8]. - Tin prices rose overnight. The tin market still has the theme of tight concentrates, but the medium - term trend is downward. Hold short positions at high levels [9]. - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market inventory situation shows positive changes. The decline of Australian ore prices has slowed down, and the short - selling momentum has weakened [10]. - The industrial silicon price decreased with reduced positions. The supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to decline slowly [11]. - The polysilicon futures price decreased with reduced positions. The short - term demand is weak, and the price is expected to change from shock to weak. Pay attention to the support at 34,200 yuan/ton [12]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices rebounded overnight. The demand for rebar is under pressure in the off - season, and the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have improved. The iron - water output is falling, and the negative feedback expectation still exists. The market is expected to rebound with fluctuations [13]. - The iron ore price rose overnight. The global supply has rebounded to a high level, and the domestic arrival volume has increased significantly. The demand is in the off - season, and the iron - water output is declining. The price is expected to be weakly volatile and may make up for the decline [14]. - The coke price rebounded. The iron - water output is falling slightly, and the second round of price cuts for coking has been fully implemented. The overall inventory has increased slightly, and the price support may decline due to the cost reduction of coking coal [15]. - The coking coal price rebounded. The production is still at a high level, the spot auction market is weak, and the terminal inventory is decreasing slightly. The price still has a downward driving force [16]. - The silicon - manganese price rebounded after a sharp decline. The inventory has decreased, but the supply is increasing slightly. The price is still weak [17]. - The silicon - iron price rebounded after a decline. The iron - water output is falling, the demand is fair, the supply is decreasing, and the price is still weak [18]. Group 5: Shipping - The shipping companies are raising the freight rates in late June. The 08 contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a "strong reality, weak expectation" trend. There may be pulse - type market conditions, and there is still room for the 08 contract to rise further. Short - selling in the short term needs to be cautious [19]. Group 6: Chemicals - The urea market is in a weak - shock state. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, the production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the impact of the new Indian tender is small [23]. - The methanol price continued to rebound with increased positions. The demand from coastal olefin plants has increased, but the port inventory is rising. The coal price is falling, and the cost is under pressure [24]. - The styrene price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation at the main ports in East China and weak downstream demand [25]. - The demand for polyethylene and polypropylene is in the off - season, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The price support from the demand side is limited [26]. - The PVC industry may face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price may oscillate at a low level. The caustic soda market is weakly operating, with high - level supply and inventory pressure [27]. - The PX and PTA prices rebounded slightly with reduced positions. The supply - demand situation of upstream raw materials is gradually under pressure due to weakening demand [28]. - The ethylene glycol price remains weak, and the pressure will gradually appear after June [29]. - The short - fiber price oscillated and rebounded, and attention should be paid to the possibility of processing - margin repair. The bottle - chip market is in the peak - demand season, and the processing margin is low. Consider intervening in the processing - margin repair if production cuts are implemented [30]. Group 7: Building Materials - The glass industry's production capacity has increased slightly, the spot price has decreased, and the futures price is weakly operating. The inventory pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [31]. Group 8: Rubber - The natural rubber supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weakening, the synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [32]. Group 9: Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rebounded overnight. The inventory pressure is high, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure at a high level [33]. Group 10: Agricultural Products - The soybean and soybean meal prices lack upward drive. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the demand is relatively cautious. The market is expected to be short - term bearish, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in June - August [34]. - The soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean and palm oil will face pressure from large arrivals, and the overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle [35]. - The Canadian canola futures price has upward drive, but the domestic canola market is affected by the Sino - Canadian trade relationship. It is advisable to reduce long positions and wait and see in the short term [36]. - The domestic soybean price is oscillating. The import supply is abundant, and the price is expected to be affected by weather in the medium term [37]. - The corn price is expected to be weakly volatile. The demand is weak, and the supply will increase with the listing of new wheat [38]. - The pig price is expected to decline in the short term due to increasing supply. In the medium term, the policy aims to stabilize the price, and attention should be paid to the actions of group enterprises [39]. - The egg price is expected to decline further due to increasing supply and the arrival of the off - season. Attention should be paid to the old - hen culling, weather, and feed prices [40]. - The cotton price is advisable to wait and see. The US cotton planting progress is behind, and the domestic cotton market has mixed conditions with some tight - inventory expectations but increasing off - season pressure [41]. - The sugar price is expected to oscillate. The Brazilian production data is mixed, and the domestic sugar market has reduced imports and light inventory pressure [42]. - The apple price is weakly operating. The market demand is decreasing, and the focus is on the new - season yield estimate. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - The wood price has stopped falling and stabilized. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is relatively good in the off - season. The price rebound power is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - The pulp price declined. The port inventory is high, the demand is weak, and the import volume may decline. It is advisable to wait and see or try to go long on significant dips [45]. Group 11: Financial Futures - The stock index futures are expected to be in a high - level shock due to insufficient bullish drive. The uncertainty of geopolitical situation and US trade policy makes investors cautious. Pay attention to positive domestic policy signals [46]. - The treasury bond futures are oscillating. The market is in a narrow - range shock, and there may be long - position opportunities after over - decline. Pay attention to the entry timing of curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [47].

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌0.90美元，收于每桶60.94美元，跌幅 为1.46%；7月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌0.75美元，收于每桶64.15美元，跌幅为1.16%。 尽管当天亚洲时段早盘时段美国国际贸易法院"叫停"特朗普政府一揽子关税的消息提振油价一度涨超 1%，但对欧佩克+机制下的8个产油国可能在7月份再次以较快速度退出自愿减产的担忧不减，最终令油 价冲高回落。 荷兰商业银行分析师表示，现在假设这些产油国将在31日的会议上同意在7月份再次把原油供应提高 41.1万桶／日。由于产油国把焦点转移到保护市场份额方面，预计这一退出自愿减产的节奏将会持续到 三季度末。 不过，对季节性需求的积极预期也支持部分市场人士看多油价的观点。挪威雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）全球石油业务负责人穆克什·萨德夫（MukeshSahdev）说，从5月至8月，数据指向油价出现建 设性和看涨的倾向，液体石油需求增幅将会比供应增幅高60万桶／日至70万桶／日。 另外，美国普莱斯期货集团高级市场分析师菲尔·弗林表示，关于美国是否与伊朗在接近陷入冲突或达 成和平协议方面有很多反复，市场上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in the commodity market following the Geneva joint statement between China and the U.S., driven by demand recovery expectations and supply contractions in certain products [1]. Group 1: Demand Marginal Tracking - The demand increase in the 90-day tariff suspension period is attributed to the shipment of previously delayed orders and U.S. companies' potential actions to "rush imports and transshipments" [2]. - The recent rise in U.S. shipping prices indicates an increase in orders, which will sustain strong demand in the near term [2]. - For complex goods, the delivery process may not see significant growth in demand during the tariff suspension, while shorter delivery cycle products like textiles and toys may show increased purchasing by U.S. companies [4][5]. Group 2: Profit and Supply Decision Adjustments - Short-term supply changes have a greater impact on price elasticity, with maintenance and operational issues in PX and PTA providing upward momentum for chemical products [9]. - The actual pace of production recovery is constrained by large manufacturers' maintenance plans and strategic supply adjustments, which create price support independent of demand [10]. - Despite potential for rapid production increases in the upstream supply chain, the lack of significant demand growth and previous low-profit periods may limit the willingness of leading manufacturers to increase output [13]. Group 3: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy remains a significant risk, with a potential increase in tariffs by 54% if no agreement is reached within 90 days [16]. - The U.S. fiscal issues may necessitate a focus on revenue generation and spending cuts, complicating trade negotiations and potentially leading to higher retail prices that suppress consumer demand [16]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments in response to economic conditions may also impact inflation expectations and commodity prices [17]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Precious metals may experience short-term price corrections due to tariff and geopolitical tensions but are expected to return to their roles as a store of value in the medium term [23]. - Non-ferrous metals may face short-term demand limitations due to U.S. procurement decisions during the tariff suspension, but medium-term trends will be influenced by Federal Reserve policies [23]. - The energy sector faces supply and demand pressures, with OPEC's production increases and limited demand support affecting price stability [23].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is the recent decline in coking coal futures, with the primary contract dropping by 2.27% to 1421.0 yuan, indicating a bearish outlook for the market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Shenyin Wanguo Futures suggests a bearish approach to coking coal, citing high iron water levels and declining future demand as key factors [1] - The firm notes that the cost of thermal coal has collapsed, leading to downward pressure on coking coal prices, and anticipates a potential price drop following a failed second round of price increases [1] - The article highlights that steel mills are experiencing seasonal demand peaks, which may lead to negative feedback in the market if high iron water levels do not sustain [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Hualian Futures indicates that domestic coal mines are maintaining normal production levels, resulting in continued supply pressure [1] - The report mentions that while coking enterprises are seeing slight profit increases, their willingness to purchase coking coal remains low, leading to a decline in coking coal inventories [1] - The overall supply-demand structure remains loose, with expectations of weak demand from end-users and a significant drop in steel mill inventories [1] Group 3: Price Levels and Recommendations - Shenyin Wanguo Futures identifies key support and resistance levels for coking coal, with JM09 focusing on 850 as support and 920 as resistance, while J09 looks at 1350-1400 for support and 1500 for resistance [1] - Hualian Futures recommends a strategy of selling on rallies, with reference pressure levels set at 950 for coking coal and 1600 for coking coal futures [1]