Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent decline in iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange despite ongoing macroeconomic positive signals, raising questions about whether market sentiment or fundamental factors are driving this trend [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that macroeconomic benefits are being continuously released, which typically supports commodity prices [1] - It raises the question of whether the current price adjustment in iron ore is a result of market sentiment rather than underlying supply and demand fundamentals [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The steel price is oscillating with an upward bias due to frequent favorable policies. The glass and soda ash markets are significantly affected by positive macro - sentiment, resulting in sharp price increases. The double - silicon market shows an upward - biased oscillation driven by rising macro - expectations [1][3]. - For glass, the supply is basically stable. It is currently in the off - season, and although inventory has decreased, the overall inventory remains high, and the pressure to reduce inventory is still large. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. For soda ash, production resumption and maintenance coexist, and the output is stable month - on - month. During the summer maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to remain at a low level. With the "anti - involution" production cuts in photovoltaic glass, the demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further, and the annual inventory pressure is large [1]. - For silicon manganese, the output is stable, and the demand shows resilience with the recovery of hot metal production. However, the high - level inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. For silicon iron, the output has increased month - on - month, and the demand has slightly decreased. The factory inventory is at a medium - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, and the price fluctuates with the sector. In the long run, the production capacity is relatively loose [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for immediate needs [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market also rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream transactions fluctuated with the market, and buyers were mainly in a wait - and - see mode [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: Supply is stable. In the off - season, inventory has decreased but remains high, and the long - term supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to glass factory cold - repair plans and profit situations [1]. - Soda Ash: Supply shows coexistence of production resumption and maintenance, with stable output month - on - month. During the summer maintenance, the operating rate will be low. With photovoltaic glass production cuts, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory pressure is large. Monitor production line intermittent maintenance and new production capacity [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillation [2]. - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2]. Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: Yesterday, it oscillated with an upward bias. In the spot market, confidence was strong. The price in the northern market was 5680 - 5730 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Silicon Iron: Yesterday, the futures market was strong. In the spot market, sentiment improved, and the price increased. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: Output is stable. With the recovery of hot metal production, demand is resilient. High - level inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. The Australian manganese ore shipment has basically recovered. Monitor silicon manganese inventory and manganese ore shipment [3]. - Silicon Iron: Output has increased month - on - month, and demand has slightly decreased. Factory inventory is at a medium - high level. In the short term, market sentiment has improved, and the price fluctuates with the sector. In the long run, production capacity is relatively loose. Pay attention to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Near - month contracts are suppressed by warrants. Look for low - level rebound opportunities in far - month contracts [4]. - Silicon Iron: Oscillation [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated around 78,000 yuan and then rebounded. The position volume decreased to below 500,000 contracts, the lowest since March this year, indicating a decrease in capital attention. Due to the uncertainty of copper prices under tariff impacts, short - term funds may flow out, reducing short - term volatility. After the market digests the tariff negatives, copper prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rebound [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum dropped sharply on Monday and then stabilized around 20,400 yuan. The position volume also decreased rapidly on Monday, with obvious capital outflows. The decline was due to inventory accumulation and concerns about US tariffs. With a weak industrial situation and strong macro - support, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spreads [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the main contract price of nickel fluctuated above 120,000 yuan. With positive US economic data and positive macro - factors, non - ferrous and black sectors rose. However, the long - term fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the increasing port inventory weakens the support for nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short game around 120,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In June 2025, China exported 154,361 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%, and imported 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 743,254 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the cumulative import was 2.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June, the import of copper ore concentrates was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and the cumulative import from January to June was 14.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. BHP's copper production in the fourth quarter was 516,200 tons, with an expected annual production of 1.8 - 2 million tons [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%, and imported 300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1%. The export of alumina was 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The import of bauxite and concentrates was 18.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.2% [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 18, for the Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract of refined nickel, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 122,480 yuan/ton, Russian nickel was 120,980 yuan/ton, Norwegian nickel was 124,030 yuan/ton, and nickel beans were 119,530 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE warrant inventory, copper month - spread, and SHFE inventory and inventory warrants [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][38][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro - level positive factors continue to boost market sentiment, and the rising upstream coal prices lead to a continuous increase in the polyolefin futures market. However, the fundamentals are difficult to improve significantly. Upstream petrochemical plants are entering the maintenance season, with an increasing trend in maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and slightly reduces production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, causing international oil and propane prices to decline. The production profit of PDH - made PP turns from loss to profit, and the cost - side support weakens. Downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the agricultural film start - up rate rising from the bottom and the plastic weaving start - up rate falling, while other downstream start - up rates remain stable [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7329 yuan/ton (+51), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7112 yuan/ton (+34). The LL spot price in North China is 7220 yuan/ton (+40), the LL spot price in East China is 7270 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 7130 yuan/ton (+10). The LL basis in North China is - 109 yuan/ton (-11), the LL basis in East China is - 59 yuan/ton (-51), and the PP basis in East China is 18 yuan/ton (-24) [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The PE start - up rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), and the PP start - up rate is 76.6% (-0.8%). The PE oil - based production profit is 87.5 yuan/ton (-7.3), the PP oil - based production profit is - 302.5 yuan/ton (-7.3), and the PDH - made PP production profit is 194.2 yuan/ton (-56.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 144.9 yuan/ton (-5.4), the PP import profit is - 640.5 yuan/ton (-5.7), and the PP export profit is 30.2 US dollars/ton (+0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate is 42.2% (-1.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 60.3% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants are entering the maintenance season, with an increasing trend in maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and slightly reduces production inventory [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP2509 rose 0.22% to close at 6,969 yuan/ton. On the supply side, this week's PP production increased by 2.36% month-on-month to 757,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.63% month-on-month to 78.64%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of PP downstream industries decreased by 0.04% month-on-month to 49.87%. In terms of inventory, this week's PP commercial inventory decreased by 4.04% month-on-month to 786,000 tons, with little pressure. Recently, with the launch of new production capacity and the restart of shutdown devices, the pressure on the supply side of the PP industry has increased. It is the off-season for downstream industries, the demand continues to be weak, and the downstream operating rate maintains a slight downward trend. Overseas demand declines seasonally, making it difficult to ease the domestic supply-demand contradiction. Recently, international oil prices have strengthened due to macro-positive factors and the deterioration of geopolitical situations, enhancing the cost support for oil-based production. In the short term, PP2509 is expected to show a volatile trend. Pay attention to the support around 6,930 and the resistance around 7,020 on the daily K-line [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polypropylene was 6,969 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,918 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6,909 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,969 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The trading volume of polypropylene (PP) was 208,464 lots, a decrease of 15,731 lots; the open interest was 490,786 lots, a decrease of 10,626 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 holders was 423,197 lots, a decrease of 10,118 lots; the sell order volume was 491,914 lots, a decrease of 6,769 lots; the net buy order volume was -68,717 lots, a decrease of 3,349 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of polypropylene PP was 7,560 lots, an increase of 2,500 lots [2]. Spot Market - The CFR Southeast Asia middle price of PP (fiber/injection molding) was 904 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East middle price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) was 859 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The duty-paid self-pickup price of PP (drawn grade) in Zhejiang was 7,140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene was 751 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price of propane in the Far East was 560 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.66 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.25 US dollars/barrel; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 571.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of polypropylene (PP) in petrochemical enterprises was 77.01%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of polypropylene was 50.01%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points; the operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of injection molding was 56.09%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the operating rate of BOPP was 60.41%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; the operating rate of PP pipes was 36.13%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the operating rate of tape master rolls was 50.74%, unchanged; the operating rate of PP non-woven fabrics was 37.03%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the operating rate of CPP was 57.38%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of polypropylene was 7.41%, a decrease of 2.41 percentage points; the 40-day historical volatility was 9.09%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at-the-money put options for polypropylene was 10.12%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money call options was 10.12%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From June 6th to 12th, the domestic polypropylene production was 757,700 tons, a 2.36% increase from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.64%, a 1.63% increase from the previous period. - From June 6th to 12th, the average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.87%. - As of June 11th, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 786,000 tons, a 4.04% decrease from the previous period [2].

Group 1 - The black sector is experiencing a price rebound due to macroeconomic sentiment, but the upside is limited by supply and demand conditions [1] - Domestic demand is seasonally weakening, with electric furnaces and some blast furnaces facing losses, leading to a decline in molten iron production [1] - The supply of iron ore is not meeting expectations, with a year-on-year decrease in cumulative shipments and a slowdown in new project ramp-ups [1] Group 2 - The coal supply remains stable, with high production levels, while the news regarding the increase in coal export tariffs from Mongolia has not been confirmed [1] - The market for alloy materials is under pressure due to increased inventory and cautious market sentiment, particularly in manganese and silicon iron [1] - The glass sector is facing declining demand in the off-season, with weak processing demand and existing supply pressures [1] Group 3 - Overall, the previous price declines have created momentum for a rebound, driven by macroeconomic factors and news related to coking coal [1] - Despite the rebound, the construction and manufacturing sectors are entering a low-demand season, limiting the potential for significant demand growth [1] - The medium-term outlook suggests a volatile market, with attention needed on future policy directions [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Short - term, due to the China - US leaders' call, the expectation of economic improvement has increased, and the futures price may rebound from a low valuation driven by the improvement of commodity sentiment. Mid - term, the urea fundamentals still face pressure, and the price center may gradually decline, but the release of exports may bring multi - stage price rebounds [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,722 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,739 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan; the trading volume was 269,277 lots, an increase of 105,710 lots; the open interest was 245,711 lots, an increase of 26,121 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 6,357 tons, down 52 tons; the trading value was 9.36559 billion yuan, an increase of 3.56433 billion yuan. The basis in Shandong area was 128, up 32; the difference between Fengxi and the disk was - 12, up 32; the difference between Dongguang and the disk was 108, up 52; the spread between UR09 - UR01 was 52, down 16 [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Shandong Ruixing, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged, while the price of Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 20 yuan to 1,710 yuan/ton. The prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi areas decreased by 20 yuan to 1,850 yuan/ton and 1,710 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 90.16%, up 0.57 percentage points, and the daily output was 207,310 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons [2] 2. Industry News - As of June 4, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 5.59%. Due to the weakening of short - term speculative activities of traders, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to continue rising next week [2] - Futures: Short - term, the futures price may rebound from a low valuation driven by the improvement of commodity sentiment. Mid - term, the urea fundamentals still face pressure, and the price center may gradually decline, but the release of exports may bring multi - stage price rebounds [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

最新数据显示，2025年前4个月，泰国天胶、混合胶合计出口量157.3万吨同比增13.5%，越南天胶、混 合胶合计出口量45万吨同比降5.9% 分析观点： （5月30日）今日全国天然橡 胶价格一览表 | 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/ | 报价 | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 产地 | | 类型 | | | | 天然橡胶 | 类别:标准胶;级别:SCRWF; | 广垦 | 13400 | 市场 | 山东省/青 | 浙江万方贸易有限公 | | （SCRWF） | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 岛市 | 司 | | 天然橡胶 | 类别:标准胶;级别:SCRWF; | 云南 | 13700 | 市场 | 山东省/青 | 汇连聚上海网络科技 | | （SCRWF） | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 岛市 | 有限公司 | 期货市场上看，5月30日收盘，天然橡胶期货主力合约报13405.00元/吨，跌幅3.14%，最高触及13880.00 元/吨，最低下探13400.00元/吨，日内成交量达568468手。 【市场资讯 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various black metal products are all ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment for black metals is pessimistic, with weak demand expectations and a gloomy market atmosphere. Most product prices are under downward pressure, and the market is influenced by factors such as seasonal demand changes, supply - side capacity, and policy expectations [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - Steel futures showed an inertial decline. In the off - season, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to fall but at a slower pace. The supply pressure remained high, and the negative feedback expectation kept fermenting. The downstream industries had poor performance, and the demand outlook was pessimistic. The short - term downward trend may be followed by increased volatility [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated. The global shipment was in normal fluctuation, and the domestic arrival volume was expected to rise. The terminal demand entered the off - season, and the molten iron production decreased slightly. The iron ore supply - demand relationship faced marginal weakening pressure, and the ore price was expected to show a weak oscillation [3]. Coke - Coke prices continued to decline, with the second - round price cut fully implemented. The molten iron production decreased slightly, and the overall coke inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the negative feedback needed to be observed. The coke futures were basically at par, and it was not advisable to be overly bearish [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices also continued to fall. The coal mine production was still at a high level, and the spot auction market weakened. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory pressure accumulated rapidly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the negative feedback needed to be observed. The coking coal futures were at a significant discount, and it was not advisable to be overly bearish [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated at a low level. After the leading steel mill's tender, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts, the weekly output increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and the price was weak due to the overall black metal market [7]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated narrowly. The molten iron production decreased slightly, the export demand was stable, and the secondary demand remained high. The supply decreased, the market transaction was average, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price was weak due to the overall black metal market [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are all ★☆☆, including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon is under pressure, with weak demand expectations and fluctuating prices. While there are signs of supply-demand imbalances and negative feedback, the market should not be overly bearish considering the steel sentiment [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. Hot-rolled coil's supply and demand both dropped, and inventory also decreased at a slower pace. Iron ore production is still relatively high, and the supply pressure is large. The negative feedback expectation keeps fermenting. Domestic demand is weak, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. The market sentiment is low, and the market is weak but may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market continued to correct today. The global shipment of iron ore decreased compared with the previous period and was weaker than the same period last year. The arrival volume in China decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to decline. Terminal demand entered the off-season, and the iron ore production decreased slightly last week. It is expected that the short-term reduction of iron ore production is limited. Overall, the supply and demand of iron ore have a certain marginal weakening pressure, and the macro-level benefits have been reflected in the previous rebound. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Coke - Coke prices continued to decline. Iron ore production decreased slightly. The first round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but there were still profits, so the daily coke production remained at a relatively high level this year. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders did not make any purchases. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continued to decline. The production of coking coal mines remained at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut-down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, and the transaction price continued to decline. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the inventory pressure at the production end continued to accumulate rapidly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal remains at a significant discount, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [5] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Ferrosilicon manganese prices dropped significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill ended, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts recently, the weekly production data increased slightly. It is judged that the current production level has led to a decrease in inventory, and the fundamentals have improved slightly. According to the expected arrival data of manganese ore, about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly, and the supply of ferrosilicon manganese increased slightly. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and market expectations have changed. The impact of tariffs should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal remained basically the same, and the demand remained stable at a high level. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The on-balance-sheet inventory decreased slightly. The tariff trend should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [7]